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Avista Corp (AVA)
NYSE:AVA
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Avista (AVA) AI Stock Analysis

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AVA

Avista

(NYSE:AVA)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$41.00
â–²(11.20% Upside)
Avista's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and a solid earnings call, balanced by bearish technical signals. The company's valuation offers stability with a reasonable P/E ratio and high dividend yield. Recent corporate events further bolster confidence in its strategic direction.
Positive Factors
Capital Investment
The 5-year $3Bn capital plan drives a rate base CAGR of 5-6% with longer-term upside.
Earnings Potential
Following the constructive WA rate case outcomes, FY25/FY26/FY27 EPS estimates are adjusted ~5% higher to growth of 4%-6% off a ‘25 base.
Operational Developments
Year-over-year earnings increase at Avista Utilities due to rate relief and customer growth, showing some positive operational developments.
Negative Factors
Analyst Rating
Analyst maintains an Underperform rating for Avista Corporation, indicating concerns about future performance.
Financial Stability
There is a potential for increased earnings volatility due to power costs and the energy recovery mechanism, which could impact financial stability.
Regulatory Challenges
AVA’s less constructive regulatory environments, power supply cost volatility, weaker balance sheet, and O&M management, will remain challenges to execution.

Avista (AVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Avista Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAvista Corporation (AVA) is an energy company engaged primarily in the production, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas. The company operates mainly in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States, including Washington, Idaho, and Oregon. Avista provides energy services and solutions to both residential and commercial customers, focusing on delivering reliable and sustainable energy while maintaining a commitment to environmental stewardship and community engagement.
How the Company Makes MoneyAvista makes money through the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas to its residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's revenue model includes regulated utility operations where they charge customers based on the consumption of electricity and natural gas. Rates are typically approved by state regulatory commissions, ensuring a stable revenue stream. Additionally, Avista may earn revenue from energy management services and partnership agreements related to renewable energy projects, as well as investments in technology and infrastructure aimed at improving energy efficiency and reliability.

Avista Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong strategic execution and regulatory success, with promising growth potential in customer demand and a confirmed earnings guidance. However, these positives were tempered by a decline in second quarter earnings and significant valuation losses related to clean technology investments.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Avista Utilities' Performance and Strategic Execution
Year-to-date results of $1.25 per diluted share reflect a nearly 7% increase over 2024's year-to-date results, demonstrating strong performance and strategic execution at Avista Utilities.
Regulatory Success
The all-party, all-issue settlement in Oregon was approved, and a similar settlement was reached in Idaho, building on constructive regulatory outcomes in Washington.
Strong Capital Expenditure Plan
Capital expenditures at Avista Utilities were $236 million in the first half of 2025, with an expectation of $525 million for the year and nearly $3 billion from 2025 through 2029.
Positive Load Growth Potential
Avista is in discussions for over 3,000 megawatts of potential demand from large load customers, significantly higher than their current peak electric native load of just under 2,000 megawatts.
Affirmation of Earnings Guidance
Consolidated earnings guidance for 2025 is confirmed with a range of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share, with Avista Utilities expected to contribute towards the upper end of this range.
Negative Updates
Decline in Second Quarter Earnings
Consolidated earnings for the second quarter of 2025 were $0.17 per diluted share, a decrease from $0.29 in the same period for 2024.
Impact of Clean Technology Investment Valuations
Valuation losses of $0.12 per diluted share in the second quarter were primarily due to shifts in public policy and sentiment affecting clean technology-focused investments.
Challenges in Clean Technology Sector
Public policy changes and tariffs have negatively impacted valuations in clean technology funds, with the funds reaching their lowest valuation point around the close of the first quarter of the year.
Company Guidance
During the Avista Corporation Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reaffirmed its consolidated earnings guidance for 2025, projecting a range of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share. Avista Utilities' contribution is expected to fall toward the upper end of its $2.43 to $2.61 per diluted share range. The company's earnings for the first half of 2025 stood at $1.15 per diluted share, a slight decrease from $1.20 in the same period of 2024. In the second quarter of 2025, earnings were $0.17 per diluted share, down from $0.29 in Q2 2024. The guidance reflects the impact of valuation losses, primarily from clean technology investments, amounting to $0.12 per diluted share in the second quarter. Avista reported capital expenditures of $236 million for the first half of 2025, with expectations to reach $525 million for the year. The company is actively pursuing an all-source RFP for 100 to 425 megawatts of generation, with plans to shortlist projects by the end of August and begin contract negotiations in Q4 2025.

Avista Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Avista demonstrates solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and stable profitability metrics. The balance sheet shows improved leverage ratios, and cash flows have significantly improved, reflecting better financial management. However, challenges in maintaining high gross profit margins and generating substantial free cash flow relative to net income suggest areas for operational and financial optimization.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Avista has shown consistent revenue growth, with a notable revenue increase of 11.5% from 2023 to the TTM ending in March 2025. The gross profit margin for TTM is robust at 33.3%, although there's a decrease from 2024's 58.9%, indicating potential cost pressures or pricing challenges. The net profit margin for TTM is 9.6%, slightly better than 2024's 9.3%, suggesting stable profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins show strong operational efficiency, with TTM EBIT margin at 17.0% and EBITDA margin at 32.0%.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio for TTM is 1.15, reflecting moderate leverage but a decrease from 2024's 1.20, indicating improved financial stability. The return on equity for TTM stands at 7.1%, consistent with the previous year's 6.9%, showcasing steady shareholder returns. The equity ratio for TTM is 33.2%, slightly higher than 2024's 31.5%, reflecting a stable capital structure.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The free cash flow growth rate for TTM is substantial at 956.2%, indicating improved cash management and investment efficiency from 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.81 for TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is 0.06, which, while positive, suggests that free cash flow generation is still limited relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.95B1.94B1.75B1.71B1.44B1.32B
Gross Profit647.91M1.14B1.05B974.35M941.81M923.38M
EBITDA623.33M602.00M542.63M446.42M459.02M450.49M
Net Income187.50M180.00M171.18M155.18M147.33M129.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.97B7.94B7.70B7.42B6.85B6.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments17.00M30.00M35.00M13.43M22.17M14.20M
Total Debt3.05B3.12B3.03B2.92B2.60B2.39B
Total Liabilities5.32B5.35B5.22B5.08B4.70B4.37B
Stockholders Equity2.65B2.59B2.49B2.33B2.15B2.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow10.56M1.00M-51.56M-327.79M-172.60M-73.30M
Operating Cash Flow527.85M534.00M447.08M124.21M267.34M331.00M
Investing Cash Flow-523.90M-539.00M-510.39M-460.24M-444.92M-410.74M
Financing Cash Flow776.00K0.0084.89M327.29M185.55M84.04M

Avista Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price36.87
Price Trends
50DMA
37.04
Negative
100DMA
37.81
Negative
200DMA
37.27
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.11
Positive
RSI
50.37
Neutral
STOCH
36.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.83, below the 50-day MA of 37.04, and below the 200-day MA of 37.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVA.

Avista Risk Analysis

Avista disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avista reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Avista Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$3.54B12.3217.13%2.44%-3.69%-8.25%
77
Outperform
$4.34B15.028.13%4.49%5.41%-1.89%
77
Outperform
$3.54B15.717.93%4.52%3.78%7.48%
74
Outperform
$3.11B23.4710.75%2.15%8.47%12.76%
72
Outperform
$2.97B16.336.91%5.28%2.41%-9.85%
66
Neutral
$17.25B17.995.54%3.64%6.63%11.55%
62
Neutral
$3.70B20.126.46%4.55%-0.44%-17.46%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AVA
Avista
36.87
0.49
1.35%
ALE
Allete
63.65
2.65
4.34%
BKH
Black Hills
59.69
2.67
4.68%
MGEE
MGE Energy
84.75
-0.23
-0.27%
NWE
Northwestern
57.95
6.02
11.59%
OTTR
Otter Tail
83.88
8.04
10.60%

Avista Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Avista Issues $120 Million in Mortgage Bonds
Neutral
Jul 25, 2025

On July 23, 2025, Avista Corporation issued $120 million of 6.18% first mortgage bonds due in 2055 in a private placement with institutional investors. The proceeds will be used to repay borrowings for utility facility construction, and the bonds are secured by a lien on substantially all of Avista’s property.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVA) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avista stock, see the AVA Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Avista Files Settlement with Idaho Utilities Commission
Neutral
Jun 11, 2025

On June 9, 2025, Avista Corporation and other parties filed a settlement agreement with the Idaho Public Utilities Commission regarding electric and natural gas rate cases. If approved, the agreement will adjust rates over two years, with increases in electric and natural gas revenues in 2025 and a slight decrease in natural gas revenues in 2026. This settlement reflects a compromise from Avista’s original requests, influenced by factors such as a lower return on equity and changes in property tax laws.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVA) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avista stock, see the AVA Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Avista Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Positive
May 13, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Avista Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where all four proposals presented were approved. The proposals included the election of eleven directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm, an amendment to the Long Term Incentive Plan, and an advisory vote on executive compensation. The approval of these proposals signifies continued confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction, potentially impacting its operational and financial strategies positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVA) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avista stock, see the AVA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025