Avista (AVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.47B
• Dividend Yield: 5.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 592.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.1
• Beta (1Y): -0.08
• Revenue Growth: 2.14%
• EPS Growth: -6.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,920
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Diversified Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.87
• Shares Outstanding: 81,371,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 549,671
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 592,484
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 83.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.32
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.35
• 1Y Price Target: $36.00
• Price Target Upside: -15.59% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $45.00 ▲(5.51% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is held back primarily by financial-statement uncertainty and balance-sheet risk flags in the provided 2025 snapshots. Offsetting this, the technical setup is constructive and valuation is supported by a ~4.6% dividend yield. Earnings call guidance and capital plans are slightly positive overall, but notable regulatory and customer-related headwinds plus higher financing needs temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Regulated utility model & rate-base growth

Avista’s core regulated utility business yields predictable cash flows because rates are designed to recover prudently incurred costs and provide an authorized return on invested capital. This structure supports steady revenue visibility and long-term financing of grid investments tied to rate-base growth.

Consistent operating cash flow

Sustained positive operating cash flow underpins the utility’s ability to fund capital programs, service debt, and support dividends. That persistent OCF strengthens financial resilience even when free cash flow fluctuates, enabling multi-year capex plans and regulatory filings without immediate liquidity strain.

RFP project wins and large potential customer pipeline

Securing diversified capacity projects alongside a large data-center deposit expands load growth and resource flexibility. These wins support longer-term load and rate-base expansion, improve supply mix resilience, and create multi-year revenue opportunities tied to planned capex through 2030.

Negative Factors

2025 balance-sheet red flags

Anomalous 2025 balance-sheet metrics (equity slipping negative, odd debt/assets movement) materially raise financial-statement risk. This uncertainty can constrain borrowing capacity, force corrective financing or asset sales, and reduce lender/regulator confidence—impairing durable capital plans.

Sharp 2025 revenue & profit deterioration

A severe 2025 drop in revenue and deeply negative gross profit represent a major deviation from prior trends and erodes earnings and cash-flow visibility. Even if partly one-off, such deterioration complicates multi-year planning, weakens cushion for regulatory timing and heightens stakeholder scrutiny.

Higher financing needs and regulatory headwinds

Increased 2026 external funding needs combined with Colstrip and ER-related EPS impacts raise structural risk. Greater debt/equity issuance can elevate interest costs and dilution risk; regulatory recoveries and sharing mechanisms also compress authorized ROE, limiting returns on new rate-base investment.

Avista Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Avista Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company. It operates in two segments, Avista Utilities and AEL&P. The Avista Utilities segment provides electric distribution and transmission, and natural gas distribution services in parts of eastern Washington and northern Idaho; and natural gas distribution services in parts of northeastern and southwestern Oregon, as well as generates electricity in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and Montana. This segment also engages in the wholesale purchase and sale of electricity and natural gas. The AEL&P segment offers electric services to 17,400 customers in the city and borough of Juneau, Alaska. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, thermal, and wind facilities. As of February 23, 2022, it provided electric service to 406,000 customers and natural gas to 372,000 customers. In addition, the company engages in venture fund investments, real estate investments, and other investments. Avista Corporation was incorporated in 1889 and is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Avista generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company charges customers based on a regulated rate structure approved by state utility commissions, which allows it to recover its operating costs and earn a return on investment. Key revenue streams include electricity sales, natural gas sales, and various ancillary services. Additionally, Avista participates in energy efficiency programs and renewable energy projects, which can provide additional income through incentives and grants. The company may also benefit from partnerships with local governments and other entities focused on sustainability and clean energy initiatives, further enhancing its revenue potential.

Avista Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement and balance sheet data include major 2025 red flags versus the steadier 2020–2024 trend (sharp revenue drop, deeply negative gross profit, and equity turning slightly negative), increasing uncertainty and perceived risk. Operating cash flow is consistently positive and was strong in 2023–2024, but free cash flow has been volatile/often negative, limiting confidence.

Income Statement

From 2020–2024, revenue generally grew (despite a 2020 dip) and profitability looked steady with net margins near ~9–10% and solid operating profitability. However, the latest 2025 annual data shows a sharp revenue decline (-31.56%) and reported gross profit turning deeply negative with no operating or net profit reported, which is a major deterioration versus the prior trend and raises data-quality/one-off risk concerns that weigh heavily on the score.

Balance Sheet

Through 2020–2024, the balance sheet looked typical for a utility with sizable leverage (debt roughly ~1.2x equity) and stable returns on equity around ~6–7%. The 2025 annual snapshot is a significant red flag: equity turns slightly negative and reported debt/assets collapse versus prior years, implying either an exceptional event or inconsistent reporting; either way, it signals materially higher balance-sheet risk based on the provided data.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently positive and was strong in 2023–2024 (~$447M–$534M), supporting earnings quality. The key weakness is free cash flow, which is often negative in 2020–2023 and essentially breakeven in 2024, consistent with heavy reinvestment needs; the 2025 annual figure shows very high free cash flow but also an extreme negative growth rate, indicating volatility and limited visibility. Overall, cash generation is a relative strength, but free-cash-flow stability is not.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.96B	1.34B	1.94B	1.75B	1.71B	1.44B
Gross Profit	1.24B	-4.70B	1.14B	1.05B	974.35M	941.81M
EBITDA	639.14M	0.00	602.00M	542.63M	446.42M	459.02M
Net Income	189.16M	0.00	180.00M	171.18M	155.18M	147.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.16B	64.00M	7.94B	7.70B	7.42B	6.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	44.00M	0.00	30.00M	35.00M	13.43M	22.17M
Total Debt	3.19B	36.00M	3.12B	3.03B	2.92B	2.60B
Total Liabilities	5.52B	65.00M	5.35B	5.22B	5.08B	4.70B
Stockholders Equity	2.65B	-1.00M	2.59B	2.48B	2.33B	2.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-22.78M	469.00M	1.00M	-51.56M	-327.79M	-172.60M
Operating Cash Flow	483.79M	469.00M	534.00M	447.08M	124.21M	267.34M
Investing Cash Flow	-501.99M	-564.00M	-539.00M	-510.00M	-460.00M	-444.92M
Financing Cash Flow	53.07M	0.00	0.00	85.00M	327.00M	185.55M

Avista Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 42.65
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.88, above the 50-day MA of 40.18, and above the 200-day MA of 38.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVA.

Avista Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OTTR	72 Outperform	$3.61B	13.05	16.10%	2.54%	-3.18%	-8.62%
MGEE	66 Neutral	$3.02B	22.11	10.80%	2.36%	8.26%	12.47%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
BKH	64 Neutral	$5.56B	18.45	7.96%	3.91%	7.03%	6.64%
NWE	64 Neutral	$4.27B	23.52	―	4.09%	4.90%	-4.42%
AVA	60 Neutral	$3.47B	18.14	7.31%	5.10%	2.14%	-6.51%

Avista Corporate Events

Avista Posts Higher 2025 Earnings and Sets 2026 Outlook

Avista Corp. reported on Feb. 25, 2026, that its 2025 GAAP net income rose to $193 million, or $2.38 per diluted share, from $180 million, or $2.29 per share, in 2024, while non-GAAP utility earnings climbed to $207 million, or $2.55 per share, from $187 million, or $2.38 per share, driven by general rate cases, customer and load growth, and cost discipline despite a negative Washington order on its Colstrip exit. The company also initiated 2026 non-GAAP utility earnings guidance of $2.52 to $2.72 per share, factoring in a $0.12 per-share hit from the early market exit of a large industrial power customer, and highlighted higher non-regulated investment losses tied mainly to clean technology valuations, an increased effective tax rate, updated environmental remediation costs and active balance sheet management through debt issuance, equity issuance and maintained liquidity.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVA) stock is a Sell with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avista stock, see the AVA Stock Forecast page.

Avista Proposes Multi-Year Rate Plan to Washington Regulators

On January 16, 2026, Avista filed a four-year multi-year rate plan with Washington regulators seeking phased increases in electric and natural gas base rates starting in 2027, aimed at generating additional annual base revenues that rise from $111 million for electric and $12 million for gas in 2027 to smaller but continued increases through 2030. The company cited higher electric resource costs, capital additions, employee benefits, insurance, regulatory amortizations and wildfire-related costs as key drivers for the 2027 revenue requirement, and is also asking to adjust its authorized rate of return and return on equity over the plan period, modify how baseline power supply costs are calculated and recovered to better handle market volatility, and expand or add cost deferral mechanisms, including for employee benefits, as it seeks to manage inflation, interest rate swings, labor and benefits pressures, and rising capital costs over a longer-term regulatory horizon; the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission now has up to eleven months to review the filing and issue a decision.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVA) stock is a Sell with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avista stock, see the AVA Stock Forecast page.