Avista (AVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.05B
• Dividend Yield: 5.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 702.04K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.21
• Revenue Growth: 3.14%
• EPS Growth: -2.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,920
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Diversified Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.98
• Shares Outstanding: 80,563,560
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 500,719
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 702,037
• PEG Ratio: 22.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.55
• 1Y Price Target: $40.00
• Price Target Upside: 5.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $41.00 ▲(8.07%Upside)

Avista’s stock is supported by strong earnings growth and a positive financial outlook. The company benefits from a stable valuation and attractive dividend yield. However, technical indicators suggest bearish trends, and risks highlighted in the earnings call and corporate events require careful consideration. Despite these challenges, Avista’s strategic advancements and shareholder confidence provide a balanced perspective on future performance.

Positive Factors

Operational Developments

Year-over-year earnings increase at Avista Utilities due to rate relief and customer growth, showing some positive operational developments.

Regulatory Developments

The Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission approved a higher return on equity for Avista, increasing from 9.4% to 9.8%.

Regulatory Support

The regulatory order supports mechanisms like Wildfire and Insurance balancing accounts and decoupling, which are expected to help reduce regulatory lag.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Earnings per share for the first quarter fell short of analyst expectations, suggesting potential challenges in meeting financial targets.

Rating and Performance Outlook

Analyst maintains an Underperform rating for Avista Corporation, indicating concerns about future performance.

Regulatory Challenges

The Energy Recovery Mechanism remains unchanged, which may limit Avista's ability to adjust electric rates in response to power supply cost changes.

Avista Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Avista Corporation (AVA) is an energy company engaged primarily in the production, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas. The company operates mainly in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States, including Washington, Idaho, and Oregon. Avista provides energy services and solutions to both residential and commercial customers, focusing on delivering reliable and sustainable energy while maintaining a commitment to environmental stewardship and community engagement.

How the Company Makes Money

Avista makes money through the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas to its residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's revenue model includes regulated utility operations where they charge customers based on the consumption of electricity and natural gas. Rates are typically approved by state regulatory commissions, ensuring a stable revenue stream. Additionally, Avista may earn revenue from energy management services and partnership agreements related to renewable energy projects, as well as investments in technology and infrastructure aimed at improving energy efficiency and reliability.

Avista Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Avista demonstrates solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and stable profitability metrics. The balance sheet shows improved leverage ratios, and cash flows have significantly improved, reflecting better financial management. However, challenges in maintaining high gross profit margins and generating substantial free cash flow relative to net income suggest areas for operational and financial optimization.

Income Statement

Avista has shown consistent revenue growth, with a notable revenue increase of 11.5% from 2023 to the TTM ending in March 2025. The gross profit margin for TTM is robust at 33.3%, although there's a decrease from 2024's 58.9%, indicating potential cost pressures or pricing challenges. The net profit margin for TTM is 9.6%, slightly better than 2024's 9.3%, suggesting stable profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins show strong operational efficiency, with TTM EBIT margin at 17.0% and EBITDA margin at 32.0%.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio for TTM is 1.15, reflecting moderate leverage but a decrease from 2024's 1.20, indicating improved financial stability. The return on equity for TTM stands at 7.1%, consistent with the previous year's 6.9%, showcasing steady shareholder returns. The equity ratio for TTM is 33.2%, slightly higher than 2024's 31.5%, reflecting a stable capital structure.

Cash Flow

The free cash flow growth rate for TTM is substantial at 956.2%, indicating improved cash management and investment efficiency from 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.81 for TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is 0.06, which, while positive, suggests that free cash flow generation is still limited relative to net income.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.95B	1.94B	1.75B	1.71B	1.44B	1.32B
	Gross Profit
647.91M	1.14B	1.05B	974.35M	941.81M	923.38M
	EBIT
329.88M	306.00M	257.69M	190.24M	228.23M	232.70M
	EBITDA
623.33M	602.00M	542.63M	446.42M	459.02M	450.49M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
187.50M	180.00M	171.18M	155.18M	147.33M	129.49M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
17.00M	30.00M	35.00M	13.43M	22.17M	14.20M
	Total Assets
7.97B	8.23B	7.70B	7.42B	6.85B	6.40B
	Total Debt
3.05B	3.12B	3.03B	2.92B	2.60B	2.39B
	Net Debt
3.03B	3.09B	3.00B	2.91B	2.58B	2.37B
	Total Liabilities
5.32B	5.35B	5.22B	5.08B	4.70B	4.37B
	Stockholders Equity
2.65B	2.59B	2.49B	2.33B	2.15B	2.03B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
10.56M	1.00M	-51.56M	-327.79M	-172.60M	-73.30M
	Operating Cash Flow
527.85M	534.00M	447.08M	124.21M	267.34M	331.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-523.90M	-539.00M	-510.39M	-460.24M	-444.92M	-410.74M
	Financing Cash Flow
776.00K	0.00	84.89M	327.29M	185.55M	84.04M

Avista Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 37.94
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.18, below the 50-day MA of 39.58, and above the 200-day MA of 37.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AVA.

Avista Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OTTR	72 Outperform	$3.35B	11.37	18.38%	2.53%	-2.68%	-3.73%
BKH	68 Neutral	$4.18B	14.73	8.02%	4.69%	3.28%	-3.49%
NWE	68 Neutral	$3.24B	13.72	8.27%	5.00%	4.31%	19.33%
ALE	67 Neutral	$3.79B	20.49	6.49%	4.40%	-11.15%	-23.41%
AVA	67 Neutral	$3.05B	16.10	7.25%	5.18%	3.14%	-2.66%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.54B	10.40	4.24%	4.63%	4.14%	-13.05%
MGEE	62 Neutral	$3.28B	25.38	10.62%	2.01%	6.03%	6.15%

Avista Corporate Events

Avista Files Settlement with Idaho Utilities Commission

On June 9, 2025, Avista Corporation and other parties filed a settlement agreement with the Idaho Public Utilities Commission regarding electric and natural gas rate cases. If approved, the agreement will adjust rates over two years, with increases in electric and natural gas revenues in 2025 and a slight decrease in natural gas revenues in 2026. This settlement reflects a compromise from Avista’s original requests, influenced by factors such as a lower return on equity and changes in property tax laws.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVA) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avista stock, see the AVA Stock Forecast page.

Avista Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On May 8, 2025, Avista Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where all four proposals presented were approved. The proposals included the election of eleven directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm, an amendment to the Long Term Incentive Plan, and an advisory vote on executive compensation. The approval of these proposals signifies continued confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction, potentially impacting its operational and financial strategies positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVA) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avista stock, see the AVA Stock Forecast page.