Avista (AVA)
NYSE:AVA
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Avista
(NYSE:AVA)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$44.00
â–²(5.39% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
Overall score reflects stable but constrained fundamentals (softening revenue growth, levered balance sheet, and historically volatile free cash flow) partially offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and strong dividend yield). Technicals are neutral, and the earnings call was balanced—affirmed guidance and growth initiatives, but meaningful regulatory and capital/financing execution risks.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility model & cost recovery
Avista’s cost‑of‑service, rate‑regulated business provides durable revenue recovery of prudently incurred costs via rate cases and riders. That structural model reduces commodity exposure, creates predictable cash flows, and lets earnings grow mechanically as rate base and authorized returns expand over years.
Negative Factors
Persistent leverage
Avista’s consistently levered capital structure (debt modestly above equity) constrains balance sheet flexibility during large investment cycles. Heavy capex and interest‑rate exposure heighten refinancing and coverage risk, increasing dependence on capital markets and making rate case timing critical to maintain credit metrics.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated utility model & cost recovery
Avista’s cost‑of‑service, rate‑regulated business provides durable revenue recovery of prudently incurred costs via rate cases and riders. That structural model reduces commodity exposure, creates predictable cash flows, and lets earnings grow mechanically as rate base and authorized returns expand over years.
Read all positive factors
Avista (AVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.38B
Dividend Yield5.1%
Average Volume (3M)533.79K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)-0.03
Revenue Growth-1.47%
EPS Growth7.23%
CountryUS
Employees1,920
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.52
Shares Outstanding82,638,430
10 Day Avg. Volume600,903
30 Day Avg. Volume533,786
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.69
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.59
P/FCF Ratio-30.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.50Price Target Upside-5.39% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.02B
Avista Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Avista Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company. It operates in two segments, Avista Utilities and AEL&P. The Avista Utilities segment provides electric distribution and transmission, and...
How the Company Makes Money
Avista makes money primarily through its regulated utility operations. The core revenue streams are (1) retail electricity sales and delivery charges and (2) retail natural gas sales and delivery charges to customers within its state-regulated ser...
Avista Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced view: operational and financial positives include consolidated EPS growth, affirmed full-year non-GAAP guidance, strong storm response and resilience improvements, and progress on large-load and storage opportunities. Offsetting these are notable near-term challenges including flat utility EPS in the quarter, material near-term and multi-year capital requirements (with potential incremental $350M), regulatory uncertainty in Washington, an expected ERM drag of $0.10, and planned equity/debt issuance. Overall, the company appears well-positioned operationally with clear growth initiatives, but faces meaningful regulatory and capital execution risks in the near term.Positive Updates
Consolidated EPS Improvement
Consolidated first quarter 2026 earnings of $1.11 per diluted share vs $0.98 in Q1 2025, an increase of $0.13 (≈13.3%).
Negative Updates
Non-GAAP Utility EPS Flat Year-Over-Year
Non-GAAP utility earnings per share remained flat at $1.10 in Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025, indicating limited utility earnings growth for the quarter despite consolidated EPS improvement.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated EPS Improvement
Consolidated first quarter 2026 earnings of $1.11 per diluted share vs $0.98 in Q1 2025, an increase of $0.13 (≈13.3%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Avista affirmed 2026 non‑GAAP utility earnings guidance of $2.52–$2.72 per diluted share, which incorporates an expected Energy Recovery Mechanism (ERM) headwind of $0.10 (90% customer / 10% company sharing); ERM produced $0.01 in Q1 and the remaining $0.09 is expected to be recognized evenly in Q2 and Q3. Q1 consolidated earnings were $1.11 per diluted share (vs. $0.98 LY) and Q1 non‑GAAP utility earnings were $1.10 (unchanged from Q1 2025); the company expects long‑term utility ROE of ~9% (ex‑ERM) with ~0.6% regulatory lag and projects long‑term earnings growth of 4–6% from the midpoint of 2025 guidance. Avista now expects Avista Utilities capital expenditures of $615 million in 2026 and $3.4 billion for 2026–2030 (with up to $350 million incremental CapEx to integrate a new large‑load customer that would drive ~8% rate base growth), plans to issue $230 million of long‑term debt and up to $90 million of common stock in 2026 (including $14M issued in Q1), sees above‑normal hydro generation for the year, is targeting a May 31 MOU with a prospective up to 500 MW data‑center customer (queue ~1.1 GW), and includes a build‑transfer battery project in the base plan targeted online in 2028.Avista Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.92B | 1.96B | 1.94B | 1.75B | 1.71B | 1.44B |
| Gross Profit | 1.07B | 475.00M | 1.14B | 1.05B | 974.35M | 941.81M |
| EBITDA | 665.00M | 654.00M | 602.00M | 542.63M | 446.42M | 459.02M |
| Net Income | 206.00M | 193.00M | 180.00M | 171.18M | 155.18M | 147.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.41B | 8.64B | 7.94B | 7.70B | 7.42B | 6.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.00M | 19.00M | 30.00M | 35.00M | 13.43M | 22.17M |
| Total Debt | 3.28B | 3.38B | 3.12B | 3.03B | 2.92B | 2.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.63B | 5.93B | 5.35B | 5.22B | 5.08B | 4.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.78B | 2.71B | 2.59B | 2.48B | 2.33B | 2.15B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 417.00M | -101.00M | 1.00M | -51.56M | -327.79M | -172.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 464.00M | 469.00M | 534.00M | 447.08M | 124.21M | 267.34M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -609.00M | -564.00M | -539.00M | -510.00M | -460.00M | -444.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 146.00M | 84.00M | 0.00 | 85.00M | 327.00M | 185.55M |
Avista Technical Analysis
Positive
41.75
Price Trends
40.65
Positive
40.39
Positive
38.88
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
50.45
Neutral
66.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.88, above the 50-day MA of 40.65, and above the 200-day MA of 38.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVA.
Avista Risk Analysis
Avista disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avista reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Avista Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.64B | 12.62 | 15.21% | 2.54% | -0.54% | -5.27% | |
67 Neutral | $2.79B | 14.58 | 10.94% | 2.36% | 8.91% | 10.48% | |
66 Neutral | $3.38B | 8.98 | 7.65% | 5.10% | -1.47% | 7.23% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $4.42B | 15.97 | 5.80% | 4.09% | 9.06% | -29.09% | |
64 Neutral | $5.65B | 9.99 | 7.60% | 3.91% | 3.58% | -1.83% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AVA
Avista
41.47
4.40
11.86%
BKH
Black Hills
74.29
18.49
33.15%
MGEE
MGE Energy
76.06
-11.97
-13.59%
NWE
Northwestern
71.93
19.32
36.72%
OTTR
Otter Tail
87.35
13.15
17.73%
Avista Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Avista Updates 2026 Outlook, Capital Plan and Regulatory Progress
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Avista Corp. released an investor presentation outlining its financial position, regulatory progress, and investment plans, highlighting 2026 non-GAAP utility earnings guidance of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share and a long-term u...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Avista Affirms 2026 Earnings Outlook Amid Strong Q1
Positive
May 5, 2026
Avista Corp. reported first-quarter 2026 GAAP net income of $92 million, or $1.11 per diluted share, up from $79 million, or $0.98 per diluted share, a year earlier, with non-GAAP utility earnings rising to $91 million, or $1.10 per share, from $8...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Avista Outlines 2026 Earnings Outlook and Capital Plan
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Avista Corp. released a March 2026 investor presentation outlining its financial performance, regulatory developments and capital plans, including 2025 operating revenue of $1.9 billion, net income of $191 million and diluted...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Avista Posts Higher 2025 Earnings and Sets 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
Avista Corp. reported on Feb. 25, 2026, that its 2025 GAAP net income rose to $193 million, or $2.38 per diluted share, from $180 million, or $2.29 per share, in 2024, while non-GAAP utility earnings climbed to $207 million, or $2.55 per share, fr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.