Avista Corp (AVA)
NYSE:AVA
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Avista
(NYSE:AVA)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(0.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated financial uncertainty from the provided 2025 financial-statement anomalies (revenue/profitability and balance-sheet inconsistencies). Valuation is a support via a strong dividend yield and reasonable P/E, while technicals are mixed with modestly weak near-term momentum. The latest earnings call is mildly supportive with clear guidance and capital plan, but near-term regulatory/customer headwinds and higher financing needs limit upside.
Positive Factors
Capital investment / rate-base growth
A multi‑year $3.4B capex plan with ~5% base capital CAGR underpins durable rate‑base expansion in a regulated utility model. Steady capital deployment that is largely recoverable through rate proceedings supports sustainable earnings growth and long‑term returns on invested utility assets.
Negative Factors
2025 financial statement anomalies
Reported 2025 balance‑sheet deterioration (slightly negative equity and distorted debt/assets) raises durable concerns about data integrity, potential one‑offs or impairments, and covenant or financing implications. Until reconciled, forecasting cash‑flow coverage and credit metrics remains uncertain.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capital investment / rate-base growth
A multi‑year $3.4B capex plan with ~5% base capital CAGR underpins durable rate‑base expansion in a regulated utility model. Steady capital deployment that is largely recoverable through rate proceedings supports sustainable earnings growth and long‑term returns on invested utility assets.
Read all positive factors
Avista (AVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.37B
Dividend Yield5.1%
Average Volume (3M)712.26K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)-0.03
Revenue Growth2.14%
EPS Growth-6.51%
CountryUS
Employees1,920
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.87
Shares Outstanding82,251,240
10 Day Avg. Volume701,388
30 Day Avg. Volume712,260
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.69
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.59
P/FCF Ratio-30.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.00Price Target Upside-2.44% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.95B
Avista Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Avista Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company. It operates in two segments, Avista Utilities and AEL&P. The Avista Utilities segment provides electric distribution and transmission, and...
How the Company Makes Money
Avista generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company charges customers based on a regulated rate structure approved by state utility commissions, which...
Avista Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a balanced but slightly positive outlook: Avista reported modest year-over-year EPS growth, secured strategic RFP projects, expanded customer assistance programs, and advanced a multi-year rate case while landing within utility guidance despite headwinds. Material near-term challenges include a regulatory Colstrip order, the earlier-than-expected departure of a large industrial customer (combined one-time EPS impacts), nonregulated valuation volatility, and increased 2026 financing needs. Strategic wins (RFP selections, large data center deposit, multi-year rate filing, dividend increase, and a clear capital plan) provide growth visibility that slightly outweighs the identified near-term risks.Positive Updates
Annual EPS Growth
2025 consolidated earnings were $2.38 per diluted share vs $2.29 in 2024, a +3.9% increase. 2025 non-GAAP utility earnings were $2.55 per diluted share vs $2.38 in 2024, a +7.1% increase.
Negative Updates
Colstrip Regulatory Order Impact
A Washington Commission order in December requiring adjustment of Colstrip-related investment recovery reduced earnings per share by $0.07 and prevented Avista Utilities from reporting earnings above the midpoint of 2025 guidance.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Annual EPS Growth
2025 consolidated earnings were $2.38 per diluted share vs $2.29 in 2024, a +3.9% increase. 2025 non-GAAP utility earnings were $2.55 per diluted share vs $2.38 in 2024, a +7.1% increase.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Avista provided 2026 non‑GAAP utility earnings guidance of $2.52–$2.72 per diluted share (utility earnings exclude nonregulated businesses), which assumes a one‑time $0.12 headwind from a departing large customer and an expected ~$0.10 negative midpoint impact from the energy recovery mechanism (90% customer / 10% company sharing); management expects 2026 utility ROE in the low‑to‑mid‑8% range with a longer‑term target ROE of ~9% (excluding ER) and an estimated structural lag of ~60 basis points, and reiterated a 4%–6% long‑term EPS CAGR from the midpoint of 2025 consolidated earnings guidance. Capital guidance: Avista Utilities capex was $553M in 2025, is expected to be $585M in 2026, and $3.4B from 2026–2030 (base capital CAGR ~5%), including a $164M add for selected RFP projects; a potential incremental up to $350M to integrate a new large customer (initial 125 MW ramping to 500 MW by 2030) would be incremental to the $3.4B and could raise the compound capital growth rate to ~12%. Funding plans call for roughly $230M long‑term debt and up to $90M common stock in 2026 (vs $120M debt and $78M equity issued in 2025), with potential monetization of ~$148M of nonregulated equity interests to offset equity needs, and the board raised the dividend to $1.97 per share while targeting a 60%–70% payout ratio.Avista Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.96B | 1.94B | 1.75B | 1.71B | 1.44B |
| Gross Profit | 475.00M | 1.14B | 1.05B | 974.35M | 941.81M |
| EBITDA | 654.00M | 602.00M | 542.63M | 446.42M | 459.02M |
| Net Income | 193.00M | 180.00M | 171.18M | 155.18M | 147.33M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.64B | 7.94B | 7.70B | 7.42B | 6.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.00M | 30.00M | 35.00M | 13.43M | 22.17M |
| Total Debt | 3.38B | 3.12B | 3.03B | 2.92B | 2.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.93B | 5.35B | 5.22B | 5.08B | 4.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.71B | 2.59B | 2.48B | 2.33B | 2.15B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -101.00M | 1.00M | -51.56M | -327.79M | -172.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 469.00M | 534.00M | 447.08M | 124.21M | 267.34M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -564.00M | -539.00M | -510.00M | -460.00M | -444.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 84.00M | 0.00 | 85.00M | 327.00M | 185.55M |
Avista Technical Analysis
Positive
41.00
Price Trends
40.46
Positive
39.75
Positive
38.10
Positive
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
58.58
Neutral
93.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.73, above the 50-day MA of 40.46, and above the 200-day MA of 38.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVA.
Avista Risk Analysis
Avista disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avista reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Avista Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $3.71B | 12.26 | 16.10% | 2.54% | -3.18% | -8.62% | |
66 Neutral | $2.87B | 21.08 | 10.59% | 2.36% | 8.26% | 12.47% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
62 Neutral | $5.38B | 17.38 | 7.85% | 3.91% | 7.03% | 6.64% | |
59 Neutral | $4.18B | 22.16 | ― | 4.09% | 4.90% | -4.42% | |
54 Neutral | $3.37B | 16.17 | 7.25% | 5.10% | 2.14% | -6.51% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AVA
Avista
41.00
3.36
8.93%
BKH
Black Hills
71.26
16.85
30.96%
MGEE
MGE Energy
78.41
-6.54
-7.70%
NWE
Northwestern
68.11
15.71
29.98%
OTTR
Otter Tail
88.54
15.84
21.79%
Avista Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Avista Outlines 2026 Earnings Outlook and Capital Plan
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Avista Corp. released a March 2026 investor presentation outlining its financial performance, regulatory developments and capital plans, including 2025 operating revenue of $1.9 billion, net income of $191 million and diluted...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Avista Posts Higher 2025 Earnings and Sets 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
Avista Corp. reported on Feb. 25, 2026, that its 2025 GAAP net income rose to $193 million, or $2.38 per diluted share, from $180 million, or $2.29 per share, in 2024, while non-GAAP utility earnings climbed to $207 million, or $2.55 per share, fr...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Avista Proposes Multi-Year Rate Plan to Washington Regulators
Neutral
Jan 16, 2026
On January 16, 2026, Avista filed a four-year multi-year rate plan with Washington regulators seeking phased increases in electric and natural gas base rates starting in 2027, aimed at generating additional annual base revenues that rise from $111...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.