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Avista Corp (AVA)
NYSE:AVA
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Avista
(NYSE:AVA)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$46.00
â–²(17.71% Upside)
Avista's overall stock score reflects strong earnings growth and strategic initiatives, which are slightly offset by liquidity concerns due to declining free cash flow. The stock's technical indicators and valuation are favorable, supporting a positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Robust revenue growth indicates successful business expansion and increased demand for Avista's utility services, supporting long-term financial health.
Strategic Initiatives
Strategic initiatives enhance operational resilience and future growth potential, ensuring Avista remains competitive and can adapt to industry challenges.
Profitability
Strong profit margins reflect efficient operations and cost management, providing a solid foundation for sustainable profitability and shareholder value.
Negative Factors
Declining Free Cash Flow
Declining free cash flow raises concerns about liquidity and the ability to fund operations and investments without relying on external financing.
Valuation Losses
Losses in non-core businesses can strain overall financial performance, potentially diverting resources from core operations and growth initiatives.
Energy Recovery Mechanism Impact
Negative impacts from energy recovery mechanisms can affect earnings stability, posing challenges to maintaining consistent financial performance.
Avista (AVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.17B
Dividend Yield5.1%
Average Volume (3M)705.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.5
Beta (1Y)-0.08
Revenue Growth2.14%
EPS Growth-6.51%
CountryUS
Employees1,920
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.36
Shares Outstanding81,371,740
10 Day Avg. Volume470,112
30 Day Avg. Volume705,940
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio8.97
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)1.49
P/FCF Ratio2.88K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.17
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.25Price Target Upside0.44% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Avista Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAvista Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company. It operates in two segments, Avista Utilities and AEL&P. The Avista Utilities segment provides electric distribution and transmission, and natural gas distribution services in parts of eastern Washington and northern Idaho; and natural gas distribution services in parts of northeastern and southwestern Oregon, as well as generates electricity in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and Montana. This segment also engages in the wholesale purchase and sale of electricity and natural gas. The AEL&P segment offers electric services to 17,400 customers in the city and borough of Juneau, Alaska. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, thermal, and wind facilities. As of February 23, 2022, it provided electric service to 406,000 customers and natural gas to 372,000 customers. In addition, the company engages in venture fund investments, real estate investments, and other investments. Avista Corporation was incorporated in 1889 and is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyAvista generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company charges customers based on a regulated rate structure approved by state utility commissions, which allows it to recover its operating costs and earn a return on investment. Key revenue streams include electricity sales, natural gas sales, and various ancillary services. Additionally, Avista participates in energy efficiency programs and renewable energy projects, which can provide additional income through incentives and grants. The company may also benefit from partnerships with local governments and other entities focused on sustainability and clean energy initiatives, further enhancing its revenue potential.
Avista Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance with significant earnings growth and successful strategic initiatives like wildfire resiliency and the positive response to the RFP. However, challenges remain with valuation losses in other businesses and the energy recovery mechanism impacting earnings guidance.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Earnings Growth
Consolidated earnings year-to-date in 2025 were $1.51 per diluted share compared to $1.44 year-to-date in 2024. For the third quarter of 2025, earnings were $0.36 per diluted share compared to $0.23 in the third quarter of 2024.
Significant Increase in Avista Utilities Earnings
Year-to-date results at Avista Utilities showed a nearly 15% increase over 2024's results, reflecting strong core utility operations and cost management.
Successful Wildfire Resiliency Program
The 2025 wildfire season concluded without needing to initiate a public safety power shutoff, showcasing significant progress in the wildfire resiliency program.
Positive Response to 2025 RFP
The 2025 all-source RFP received over 80 bids, totaling nearly 14 gigawatts of capacity and 300 megawatts of demand response, indicating strong interest and diverse options.
Beat Market Expectations
The third quarter financial results exceeded market expectations, driven by consistent operational execution and constructive regulatory outcomes.
Negative Updates
Valuation Losses in Other Businesses
Consolidated results are expected at the lower end of the guidance range due to $0.16 of losses associated with the investment portfolio year-to-date.
Energy Recovery Mechanism Impact
The energy recovery mechanism is expected to have a negative impact of $0.14, with $0.12 incurred year-to-date, affecting the earnings guidance.
Potential Power Cost Drag in 2026
There is an anticipated power cost drag in 2026 due to the current energy recovery mechanism and power supply cost settings.
Company Guidance
During the Avista Corporation Q3 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance reaffirming its consolidated earnings range of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share for 2025. Avista Utilities is expected to contribute toward the upper end of its guidance range of $2.43 to $2.61 per diluted share, despite valuation losses in other businesses. The company reported year-to-date consolidated earnings of $1.51 per diluted share, a rise from $1.44 in the previous year, with third-quarter 2025 consolidated earnings at $0.36 per share compared to $0.23 in 2024. The call highlighted Avista's capital expenditures at $363 million for the first three quarters and forecasted a total of $525 million for the year, with an anticipated growth rate of 6% from 2025 to 2030. Additionally, Avista discussed strategic initiatives, including a 425 megawatt request for proposals for new capacity, and emphasized its commitment to wildfire risk mitigation and grid modernization efforts.Avista Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Avista shows strong revenue growth and profitability with efficient operations. However, the significant decline in free cash flow raises concerns about liquidity, which impacts the overall financial performance score.Income Statement
Avista's income statement shows strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 47.4%, indicating robust business expansion. The gross profit margin of 63.36% and net profit margin of 9.63% reflect solid profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 17.96% and 32.55%, respectively, showcasing efficient operations. Overall, the income statement demonstrates a positive growth trajectory and stable profitability.Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.21, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity stands at 7.19%, reflecting decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio of 32.41% suggests a balanced capital structure. While leverage is slightly high, the company maintains a stable financial position with adequate equity backing.Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows a significant decline in free cash flow, with a growth rate of -73.75% TTM, raising concerns about cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.66, indicating moderate cash conversion efficiency. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights potential liquidity challenges. While operating cash flow remains positive, the decline in free cash flow warrants attention.| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.96B | 1.94B | 1.75B | 1.71B | 1.44B | 1.32B |
| Gross Profit | 1.24B | 1.14B | 1.05B | 974.35M | 941.81M | 923.38M |
| EBITDA | 639.14M | 602.00M | 542.63M | 446.42M | 459.02M | 450.49M |
| Net Income | 189.16M | 180.00M | 171.18M | 155.18M | 147.33M | 129.49M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.16B | 7.94B | 7.70B | 7.42B | 6.85B | 6.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 44.00M | 30.00M | 35.00M | 13.43M | 22.17M | 14.20M |
| Total Debt | 3.19B | 3.12B | 3.03B | 2.92B | 2.60B | 2.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.52B | 5.35B | 5.22B | 5.08B | 4.70B | 4.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.65B | 2.59B | 2.48B | 2.33B | 2.15B | 2.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -22.78M | 1.00M | -51.56M | -327.79M | -172.60M | -73.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 483.79M | 534.00M | 447.08M | 124.21M | 267.34M | 331.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -501.99M | -539.00M | -510.00M | -460.00M | -444.92M | -410.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 53.07M | 0.00 | 85.00M | 327.00M | 185.55M | 84.04M |
Avista Technical Analysis
Positive
39.08
Price Trends
39.32
Negative
38.04
Positive
37.88
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
53.18
Neutral
65.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.63, below the 50-day MA of 39.32, and above the 200-day MA of 37.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVA.
Avista Risk Analysis
Avista disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avista reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Avista Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.17B | 16.55 | 7.31% | 5.10% | 2.14% | -6.51% | |
77 Outperform | $3.59B | 12.92 | 16.10% | 2.54% | -3.18% | -8.62% | |
74 Outperform | $4.05B | 18.69 | 7.62% | 4.09% | 4.90% | -4.42% | |
68 Neutral | $5.34B | 17.85 | 7.90% | 3.91% | 7.03% | 6.64% | |
67 Neutral | $2.87B | 21.28 | 10.80% | 2.36% | 8.26% | 12.47% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AVA
Avista
39.08
4.92
14.39%
BKH
Black Hills
70.60
15.99
29.28%
MGEE
MGE Energy
78.75
-10.47
-11.74%
NWE
Northwestern
65.86
15.92
31.88%
OTTR
Otter Tail
84.90
9.51
12.62%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.