Northwestern Corp. (NWE)
NASDAQ:NWE
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Northwestern
(NASDAQ:NWE)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$71.00
▲(0.55% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/04/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash generation (negative free cash flow and reliance on external financing) alongside rising debt, despite steady revenue/profitability typical of a regulated utility. Guidance and strategic progress (including the merger path and dividend increase) add support, while technical signals are mixed and valuation is balanced by a solid yield but a not-cheap P/E.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility revenue model
NorthWestern’s core regulated electric and gas model creates predictable cash flows and returns tied to rate base growth and authorized ROE. Cost-recovery riders and tariff mechanisms limit commodity exposure and make earnings and capital recovery more durable versus unregulated peers, supporting multi-year investment planning.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow generation
Persistent negative free cash flow means capital spending outpaces internally generated cash, forcing regular external financing. Over a multi-year horizon this constrains flexibility to fund the $3.2B capital plan, increases reliance on debt/equity issuance, and raises execution risk for sustained dividends and growth initiatives.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated utility revenue model
NorthWestern’s core regulated electric and gas model creates predictable cash flows and returns tied to rate base growth and authorized ROE. Cost-recovery riders and tariff mechanisms limit commodity exposure and make earnings and capital recovery more durable versus unregulated peers, supporting multi-year investment planning.
Read all positive factors
Northwestern (NWE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.34B
Dividend Yield4.09%
Average Volume (3M)618.21K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.2
Beta (1Y)0.15
Revenue Growth4.90%
EPS Growth-4.42%
CountryUS
Employees1,585
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.17
Shares Outstanding61,443,623
10 Day Avg. Volume712,131
30 Day Avg. Volume618,208
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.37
Price to Sales (P/S)2.46
P/FCF Ratio-30.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.76
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$64.88Price Target Upside-8.11% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)3.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.69B
Northwestern Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NorthWestern Corporation, doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and various industrial customers. The company operates through Electric and Natural Gas segments. It generates, purch...
How the Company Makes Money
NorthWestern Corporation primarily makes money by providing regulated electric and natural gas utility service and earning authorized returns on prudently incurred investments in utility infrastructure. Its core revenue streams are: (1) Regulated ...
Northwestern Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call presents meaningful strategic progress (merger filing, acquisitions increasing control of Colstrip, updated $3.21B capital plan, submission of a 131 MW South Dakota project, and positive adjusted EPS growth of 5.3%) alongside constructive guidance for 2026. Material near-term headwinds include a $0.38 Montana rate disallowance, weather-driven margin and cash weakness, under-collections in Montana that compressed FFO-to-debt (discussed near ~13%), and timing/regulatory risk around data centers and merger approvals. Management has mitigations in place (tariff waiver, power sale contracts, cash-recovery mechanisms during construction) and reiterated a disciplined, mostly self-funded base capital plan but acknowledged potential equity needs for incremental projects beyond 2026. On balance the strategic gains and guidance/earnings momentum outweigh the listed operational and regulatory headwinds.Positive Updates
Merger with Black Hills Corporation
Announced an all-stock merger of equals with Black Hills; joint regulatory filings in Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota and at FERC; S-4 and joint proxy filed. Management expects closing in 2026 and cites EPS growth expansion from a 4%-6% range to 5%-7%, doubled rate base to ~ $11,000,000,000 and improved scale, diversification, and credit profile.
Negative Updates
Montana Rate Review Disallowance
A one-time Montana rate review disallowance produced an approximately $0.38 per-share charge in 2025; management has requested reconsideration but has no clear timeline for resolution, creating near-term EPS/cash uncertainty.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Merger with Black Hills Corporation
Announced an all-stock merger of equals with Black Hills; joint regulatory filings in Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota and at FERC; S-4 and joint proxy filed. Management expects closing in 2026 and cites EPS growth expansion from a 4%-6% range to 5%-7%, doubled rate base to ~ $11,000,000,000 and improved scale, diversification, and credit profile.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Northwestern Energy initiated 2026 guidance of $3.68–$3.83 diluted EPS (midpoint ≈ $3.76, ~5% growth vs. 2025 non‑GAAP EPS $3.58 and 5.3% Y/Y non‑GAAP growth), raised the quarterly dividend 1.5% to $0.67/share, and updated its five‑year capital plan to $3.21 billion (a 17% increase); the company added a 131 MW South Dakota gas project (~$300 million) to the plan and expects incremental financing for that project on roughly a 50/50 debt/equity basis (base ~$3.2B plan remains self‑funded), will issue debt in 2026 to refinance maturities and fund the base plan, and noted it closed 2025 with lower FFO‑to‑debt (below ~14%); other reported metrics included FY2025 GAAP EPS $2.94 and adjusted EPS $3.58, Q4 adjusted EPS $1.17 (with Q4 weather ~$(0.03) vs. prior and ~$(0.13) vs. normal), merger filings in multiple jurisdictions and Form S‑4 filed Jan 30 with shareholder votes Apr 2 and anticipated state hearings in Q2 2026, and expected Colstrip-related operating cost impacts of roughly $18M (Avista) and $30M (Puget, largely offset by a sales contract through late‑2027).Northwestern Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.42B | 1.48B | 1.37B |
| Gross Profit | 1.33B | 1.29B | 781.36M | 764.40M | 946.77M |
| EBITDA | 587.44M | 574.43M | 526.15M | 477.53M | 471.40M |
| Net Income | 181.09M | 224.11M | 194.13M | 183.01M | 186.84M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.46B | 8.00B | 7.60B | 7.32B | 6.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.78M | 4.28M | 9.16M | 8.49M | 2.82M |
| Total Debt | 3.29B | 3.10B | 2.79B | 2.63B | 2.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.57B | 5.14B | 4.82B | 4.65B | 4.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.89B | 2.86B | 2.79B | 2.67B | 2.34B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -130.00M | -142.50M | -77.66M | -207.90M | -214.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 394.45M | 406.74M | 489.23M | 307.24M | 219.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -570.63M | -554.46M | -570.81M | -516.86M | -435.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 177.90M | 151.55M | 84.31M | 213.32M | 217.52M |
Northwestern Technical Analysis
Positive
70.61
Price Trends
67.83
Positive
66.56
Positive
60.95
Positive
Market Momentum
0.67
Negative
66.90
Neutral
93.24
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.16, above the 50-day MA of 67.83, and above the 200-day MA of 60.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWE.
Northwestern Risk Analysis
Northwestern disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Northwestern reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Northwestern Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $3.81B | 12.26 | 16.10% | 2.54% | -3.18% | -8.62% | |
66 Neutral | $2.95B | 21.08 | 10.59% | 2.36% | 8.26% | 12.47% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
62 Neutral | $5.57B | 12.44 | 7.85% | 3.91% | 7.03% | 6.64% | |
59 Neutral | $4.34B | 22.16 | ― | 4.09% | 4.90% | -4.42% | |
54 Neutral | $3.44B | 16.17 | 7.25% | 5.10% | 2.14% | -6.51% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NWE
Northwestern
70.61
15.89
29.04%
AVA
Avista
41.87
2.57
6.55%
BKH
Black Hills
73.80
16.40
28.58%
MGEE
MGE Energy
80.77
-8.22
-9.24%
OTTR
Otter Tail
90.28
12.36
15.86%
Northwestern Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
NorthWestern Shareholders Approve Transformative All-Stock Merger
Positive
Apr 3, 2026
On April 2, 2026, NorthWestern Energy and Black Hills Corp. shareholders voted at special meetings to approve an all-stock merger first announced in August 2025, along with related executive compensation and adjournment proposals, with NorthWester...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NorthWestern Adopts 2026 Short- and Long-Term Incentive Plans
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 11, 2026, NorthWestern Energy’s board approved a 2026 Annual Incentive Plan covering officers and eligible non-represented employees for the performance period from January 1 to December 31, 2026, with payouts due by March 15, 20...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
NorthWestern Updates 2025 Results, Guidance and Dividend Strategy
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
NorthWestern Energy reported 2025 net income of $181.1 million, or $2.94 per diluted share, down from $224.1 million and $3.65 per share in 2024, largely due to higher operating expenses and a regulatory disallowance tied to Yellowstone County Gen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.