Northwestern (NWE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.44B
• Dividend Yield: 4.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 417.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.25
• Revenue Growth: 3.78%
• EPS Growth: 7.48%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,585
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Diversified Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 61,393,380
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 406,654
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 417,566
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.53
• 1Y Price Target: $58.50
• Price Target Upside: 4.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $60.00 ▲(7.07% Upside)

Northwestern's overall stock score reflects solid financial performance marked by strong profitability and reasonable valuation metrics. Technical indicators show slight upward momentum, which aligns with positive guidance from the latest earnings call. However, challenges such as high capital expenditures and mixed earnings results temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

NorthWestern Energy Group delivered strong 1Q25 results, indicating successful regulatory outcomes, infrastructure investment, and load growth opportunities.

Growth Opportunities

Growth visibility is improving with letters of intent from Altus Power and Sabey, which could lead to contracts and require new resources, enhancing potential growth.

Regulatory Environment

The regulatory environment in Montana is improving with multi-party settlements in rate cases, and legislative changes reducing wildfire-related liabilities, which de-risks the company.

Negative Factors

Earnings and Growth

The profile has below-average EPS and rate base growth, a noisy regulatory history coupled with an expectation of more frequent filings going forward.

Operational Costs

Gains were partially offset by higher operating costs, increased depreciation, milder weather, and increased interest expense.

Rate Base Adjustments

The Montana Consumer Counsel proposed adjustment disallows a portion of the Yellowstone Country Generation Station rate base due to costs exceeding the original budget.

Northwestern Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NorthWestern Corporation, doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and various industrial customers. The company operates through Electric and Natural Gas segments. It generates, purchases, transmits, and distributes electricity; and produces, purchases, stores, transmits, and distributes natural gas, as well as owns municipal franchises to provide natural gas service in the communities. The company operates 6,819 miles of electric transmission and 18,177 miles of electric distribution lines with approximately 400 transmission and distribution substations; and 2,166 miles of natural gas transmission and 4,945 miles of natural gas distribution lines with approximately 138 city gate stations in Montana. It also operates 1,308 miles of electric transmission and 2,320 miles of electric distribution lines in South Dakota; and 55 miles of natural gas transmission and 2,517 miles of natural gas distribution lines in South Dakota and Nebraska. The company serves approximately 753,600 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. NorthWestern Corporation was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

How the Company Makes Money

Northwestern generates revenue primarily through the provision of electricity and natural gas services to its customers. The company operates under a regulated utility model, which allows it to earn a return on investment through rates approved by regulatory bodies. Key revenue streams include residential and commercial energy sales, infrastructure investments, and ancillary services related to energy management. Additionally, NWE benefits from long-term contracts for energy supply and partnerships with renewable energy producers, which contribute to its earnings while aligning with regulatory incentives for sustainable energy practices.

Northwestern Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northwestern exhibits strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin above 90% and a stable net profit margin around 15%. Revenue growth is moderate, and while operating cash flow is robust, high capital expenditures lead to negative free cash flow. The balance sheet is leveraged, typical for utilities, with a solid equity base.

Income Statement

Northwestern shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin above 90% and a stable net profit margin around 15%. Revenue growth is moderate with a 7.4% increase from 2023 to TTM 2025. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, indicating efficient operations.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid equity base with a stable equity ratio of around 35%. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at approximately 1.07, suggesting a leveraged position typical for utilities. Return on equity is consistent at approximately 8%, reflecting steady returns to shareholders.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong, but free cash flow is negative, indicating high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, suggesting good cash earnings quality. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to significant capital spending.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.53B	1.51B	1.42B	1.48B	1.37B	1.20B
Gross Profit	1.33B	1.29B	781.36M	985.80M	946.77M	892.48M
EBITDA	600.45M	574.43M	526.15M	466.58M	456.95M	416.19M
Net Income	225.51M	224.11M	194.13M	183.01M	186.84M	155.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.14B	8.00B	7.60B	7.32B	6.78B	6.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.94M	4.28M	9.16M	8.49M	2.82M	5.81M
Total Debt	3.09B	3.10B	2.79B	2.63B	2.56B	2.43B
Total Liabilities	5.26B	5.14B	4.82B	4.65B	4.44B	4.31B
Stockholders Equity	2.88B	2.86B	2.79B	2.67B	2.34B	2.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-128.46M	-142.50M	-77.66M	-207.90M	-214.35M	-53.61M
Operating Cash Flow	394.40M	406.74M	489.23M	307.24M	219.98M	352.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-532.94M	-554.46M	-570.81M	-516.86M	-435.83M	-405.80M
Financing Cash Flow	134.05M	151.55M	84.31M	213.32M	217.52M	58.68M

Northwestern Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 56.04
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 56.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.90, above the 50-day MA of 52.63, and above the 200-day MA of 53.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.15 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWE.

Northwestern Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OTTR	77 Outperform	$3.44B	12.08	17.13%	2.49%	-3.69%	-8.25%
NWE	74 Outperform	$3.44B	15.25	7.93%	4.73%	3.78%	7.48%
BKH	72 Outperform	$4.49B	15.53	8.13%	4.30%	5.41%	-1.89%
AVA	72 Outperform	$3.04B	16.82	6.91%	5.15%	2.41%	-9.85%
MGEE	69 Neutral	$3.09B	23.51	10.75%	2.14%	8.47%	12.76%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.90B	18.75	8.12%	3.41%	7.32%	12.01%
ALE	62 Neutral	$3.82B	20.77	6.46%	4.40%	-0.44%	-17.46%

Northwestern Corporate Events

NorthWestern Energy Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

NorthWestern Energy reported its second quarter 2025 financial results, showing a decrease in net income to $21.2 million, or $0.35 per diluted share, compared to $31.7 million, or $0.52 per diluted share, in 2024. This decline was attributed to factors like lower retail natural gas and electric usage, increased costs, and interest expenses, partially offset by higher retail rates and revenues. The company completed the acquisition of Energy West’s natural gas distribution system, adding over 33,000 customers and 43 employees. NorthWestern Energy announced a quarterly dividend of $0.66 per share and initiated a 2025 earnings guidance range of $3.53 to $3.65 per diluted share. The company is also affirming its long-term growth rates and capital investment plans, while working on regulatory updates and settlements in Montana.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Hold with a $59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.

NorthWestern Energy Highlights at Mizuho Utilities Conference

On June 5, 2025, NorthWestern Energy’s top executives participated in Mizuho’s Mid-Cap Utilities Conference in New York, engaging with analysts and investors to provide insights into the company’s operations and future prospects. The presentation highlighted NorthWestern Energy’s strategic focus on maintaining a strong utility foundation, with ongoing investments aimed at enhancing reliability and capacity to meet future energy demands. The company emphasized its commitment to sustainable growth, with a significant portion of its energy supply being carbon-free, and outlined its financial goals, including a target EPS growth of 4%-6% and maintaining a competitive total return for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Hold with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.

NorthWestern Energy Highlights at Power and Utilities Conference

On May 28, 2025, NorthWestern Energy’s executives participated in Bank of America’s Power and Utilities Conference in New York, engaging with investors to discuss the company’s strategic direction and financial outlook. The presentation highlighted NorthWestern Energy’s focus on sustainable growth through investments in energy supply and infrastructure, aiming for a 4%-6% annual earnings growth. The company emphasized its commitment to maintaining a strong utility foundation with a carbon-free supply portfolio and its recognition for governance and emergency response efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Buy with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.

NorthWestern Executives to Attend Financial Forum

On May 19-20, 2025, NorthWestern Energy’s senior executives will participate in the American Gas Association’s Financial Forum in Florida, engaging with investors and presenting company information. The company is focused on long-term growth, with plans for significant capital investment aimed at enhancing earnings and meeting energy capacity needs. NorthWestern Energy’s strategic initiatives include maintaining strong customer satisfaction, investing in energy supply and infrastructure, and leveraging its carbon-free energy portfolio to strengthen its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Buy with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.