Northwestern (NWE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.06B
• Dividend Yield: 4.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 383.85K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.02
• Revenue Growth: 4.90%
• EPS Growth: -4.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,585
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Diversified Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.79
• Shares Outstanding: 61,407,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 492,435
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 383,850
• PEG Ratio: 1.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.16
• P/FCF Ratio: -22.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.69
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.19
• 1Y Price Target: $60.25
• Price Target Upside: -10.49% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.58
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.60B

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $75.00 ▲(11.42% Upside)

Northwestern Energy's stock is supported by strong technical momentum and a positive earnings call, despite some financial risks related to debt and cash flow. The valuation is fair, with an attractive dividend yield, making it a solid choice for income-focused investors.

Positive Factors

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition expands Northwestern's customer base and operational scale, enhancing its market position and growth potential in the utility sector.

Legislative Wins

These legislative outcomes provide regulatory certainty and protection, supporting long-term infrastructure investments and operational stability.

Revenue Growth

Exceeding revenue expectations indicates strong operational performance and demand, supporting sustained growth in the utility market.

Negative Factors

Earnings Decline

Declining earnings could signal operational challenges or cost pressures, potentially impacting profitability and financial health if not addressed.

Increasing Debt Levels

Reliance on debt financing may limit financial flexibility and increase risk, especially if interest rates rise or cash flows remain constrained.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Persistent negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, as capital expenditures exceed operating cash flow, requiring improved cash management.

Northwestern Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NorthWestern Corporation, doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and various industrial customers. The company operates through Electric and Natural Gas segments. It generates, purchases, transmits, and distributes electricity; and produces, purchases, stores, transmits, and distributes natural gas, as well as owns municipal franchises to provide natural gas service in the communities. The company operates 6,819 miles of electric transmission and 18,177 miles of electric distribution lines with approximately 400 transmission and distribution substations; and 2,166 miles of natural gas transmission and 4,945 miles of natural gas distribution lines with approximately 138 city gate stations in Montana. It also operates 1,308 miles of electric transmission and 2,320 miles of electric distribution lines in South Dakota; and 55 miles of natural gas transmission and 2,517 miles of natural gas distribution lines in South Dakota and Nebraska. The company serves approximately 753,600 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. NorthWestern Corporation was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

How the Company Makes Money

Northwestern generates revenue predominantly through the sale of electricity and natural gas to its customers. The company operates under regulated utility frameworks, allowing it to earn a return on investments in infrastructure and services. Key revenue streams include residential and commercial energy sales, as well as transportation and distribution fees. Additionally, NWE may engage in long-term power purchase agreements and may benefit from partnerships with renewable energy developers to diversify its energy portfolio. Regulatory decisions and energy demand dynamics also significantly influence its earnings, as they can impact pricing and operational efficiency.

Northwestern Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northwestern demonstrates strong profitability with stable revenue growth and healthy profit margins. However, increasing debt levels and negative free cash flow pose potential risks that need addressing to maintain financial health.

Income Statement

Northwestern's income statement shows strong gross profit margins, consistently above 80% in recent periods, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin is also healthy, though slightly declining from the previous year. Revenue growth is positive, albeit modest, reflecting stable demand in the utility sector. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown some decline, suggesting potential pressure on operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, slightly above 1, which is typical for the utility industry but indicates a reliance on debt financing. Return on equity is stable, around 7-8%, showing consistent profitability. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a balanced capital structure, though the increasing debt levels could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with negative free cash flow, indicating that capital expenditures exceed operating cash flow. This could be a concern if it persists, as it may affect liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, suggesting that not all net income is translating into cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting the need for improved cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.57B	1.51B	1.42B	1.48B	1.37B	1.20B
Gross Profit	1.45B	1.29B	781.36M	985.80M	946.77M	892.48M
EBITDA	614.51M	574.43M	526.15M	466.58M	471.40M	420.70M
Net Income	216.93M	224.11M	194.13M	183.01M	186.84M	155.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.30B	8.00B	7.60B	7.32B	6.78B	6.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.20M	4.28M	9.16M	8.49M	2.82M	5.81M
Total Debt	3.15B	3.10B	2.79B	2.63B	2.56B	2.43B
Total Liabilities	5.42B	5.14B	4.82B	4.65B	4.44B	4.31B
Stockholders Equity	2.88B	2.86B	2.79B	2.67B	2.34B	2.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-122.16M	-142.50M	-77.66M	-207.90M	-214.35M	-53.61M
Operating Cash Flow	401.11M	406.74M	489.23M	307.24M	219.98M	352.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-567.91M	-554.46M	-570.81M	-516.86M	-435.83M	-405.80M
Financing Cash Flow	169.39M	151.55M	84.31M	213.32M	217.52M	58.68M

Northwestern Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 67.31
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.98, above the 50-day MA of 59.13, and above the 200-day MA of 55.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.20 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.32 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWE.

Northwestern Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NWE	78 Outperform	$4.06B	18.73	7.62%	4.38%	4.90%	-4.42%
BKH	76 Outperform	$5.37B	17.95	7.90%	4.20%	7.03%	6.64%
OTTR	72 Outperform	$3.60B	12.97	16.10%	2.49%	-3.18%	-8.62%
ALE	68 Neutral	$3.91B	23.60	5.83%	4.29%	-4.30%	-8.49%
AVA	68 Neutral	$3.35B	17.48	7.31%	4.67%	2.14%	-6.51%
MGEE	67 Neutral	$3.04B	22.59	10.80%	2.17%	8.26%	12.47%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%

Northwestern Corporate Events

NorthWestern Attends EEI Conference to Reaffirm Guidance

On November 10-11, 2025, NorthWestern Energy executives will attend the 60th EEI Financial Conference in Florida to meet with investors and reaffirm their 2025 earnings guidance. The company has announced a merger with Black Hills Corporation, filed for regulatory approvals, and continues to invest in infrastructure projects, including a $300 million natural gas generation project.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Buy with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.

NorthWestern Energy Balances Growth and Challenges in Earnings Call

NorthWestern Energy’s recent earnings call painted a picture of both optimism and caution. The company highlighted its affirmation of earnings guidance, successful acquisition integrations, and strategic merger plans, which were well-received. However, these positives were counterbalanced by challenges such as decreased GAAP earnings, merger-related expenses, and increased operating costs, which have impacted the financial performance of the company.

NorthWestern VP John Hines Announces Retirement

John Hines, Vice President of Supply and Montana Government Affairs at NorthWestern Energy Group, announced his retirement effective February 2, 2026, after 20 years of service. His tenure included significant contributions to the company’s energy portfolio in Montana, ensuring resource adequacy and modernizing infrastructure, which have been pivotal in balancing the needs of shareholders, customers, and employees.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Buy with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.

NorthWestern Energy’s Q3 2025 Financial Performance and Strategic Plans

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc., operating as NorthWestern Energy, is a utility company providing electricity and natural gas services to customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. The company is known for its commitment to delivering safe and reliable energy solutions.

NorthWestern Energy Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

NorthWestern Energy reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, noting a decrease in GAAP EPS to $0.62 from $0.76 in 2024, primarily due to increased operating expenses and interest costs. However, the company saw an increase in non-GAAP EPS to $0.79 from $0.65 in 2024, driven by new rates and customer usage. The company reaffirmed its 2025 earnings guidance and long-term growth rates, and announced a quarterly dividend of $0.66 per share. NorthWestern Energy is advancing its merger with Black Hills Corporation, with regulatory applications submitted and a transaction close anticipated in late 2026. The company is also involved in strategic initiatives such as the acquisition of Colstrip Units 3 and 4, and supporting data center developments in Montana.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Hold with a $58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.

NorthWestern Energy Amends Term Loan Agreement

On September 29, 2025, NorthWestern Energy amended its Term Loan Credit Agreement, increasing the total commitment to $150 million and adding Mizuho Bank as a lender, with U.S. Bank serving as the administrative agent. The unsecured loan, due April 10, 2026, will be used for general corporate purposes and includes various covenants and conditions, such as maintaining a consolidated debt to total capitalization ratio of 65% or less.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.

NorthWestern Energy Reaffirms 2025 Earnings at Barclays Conference

On September 3 and 4, 2025, NorthWestern Energy’s executives will participate in Barclays’ 39th Annual CEO Energy-Power Conference, reaffirming their 2025 earnings guidance. The company aims for a 4%-6% EPS growth and highlights its strong utility foundation, diverse energy supply, and ongoing investments in infrastructure to meet future energy demands. NorthWestern Energy’s strategic focus on reliability, customer satisfaction, and sustainable practices positions it well for continued growth and positive stakeholder impact.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Hold with a $54.93 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.

NorthWestern Merges with Black Hills to Form Utility Giant

On August 18, 2025, NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. entered into a merger agreement with Black Hills Corporation, resulting in a combined entity that will operate as a premier regional regulated electric and natural gas utility company. The merger, which has been approved by both companies’ boards, will see NorthWestern become a wholly owned subsidiary of Black Hills, with the combined company expected to have a market capitalization of approximately $7.8 billion. The merger aims to enhance operational scale, financial strength, and investment opportunities, while providing benefits such as increased EPS growth rates and improved service reliability for customers across eight states. The transaction is expected to be accretive to each company’s earnings per share in the first year following the merger’s completion and will support a long-term EPS target growth rate of 5% to 7%.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Buy with a $61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.

NorthWestern Announces Merger with Black Hills Corporation

On August 19, 2025, NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. and Black Hills Corporation announced a definitive agreement for an all-stock merger, creating a premier regional regulated electric and natural gas utility company with a combined market capitalization of approximately $7.8 billion. The merger aims to enhance scale, diversify business lines, and increase investment opportunities, with expectations of being accretive to earnings per share in the first year post-transaction. The combined company will serve around 2.1 million customers across eight states, with a focus on improving infrastructure and advancing a clean energy future. The merger is anticipated to deliver long-term value for customers, employees, and shareholders, while maintaining strong community support and advancing emissions reduction initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Buy with a $61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.