Northwestern Corp. (NWE)
NASDAQ:NWE
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Northwestern
(NASDAQ:NWE)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$76.00
â–²(4.86% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
The score is primarily driven by stable operating performance but meaningfully held back by persistent negative free cash flow and leverage-limited flexibility. Reaffirmed guidance, merger progress, and data-center upside are positives, while technicals are mixed with softer near-term momentum. Valuation is supportive given a reasonable P/E and ~3.8% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Regulated revenue and margins
NorthWestern’s core regulated model produces steady, rate‑base driven revenue and utility‑style margins. Consistent top‑line growth (~1.9% TTM) and mid‑teens to low‑20s operating profitability support predictable cash flows, durable earnings visibility and multi‑year capital recovery under regulatory frameworks.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Consistent negative free cash flow signals that operating cash does not fully fund capital and shareholder commitments. Over multiple years this requires external financing, increasing refinancing risk, constraining dividend flexibility, and magnifying sensitivity to cost recovery timing or project delays.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated revenue and margins
NorthWestern’s core regulated model produces steady, rate‑base driven revenue and utility‑style margins. Consistent top‑line growth (~1.9% TTM) and mid‑teens to low‑20s operating profitability support predictable cash flows, durable earnings visibility and multi‑year capital recovery under regulatory frameworks.
Read all positive factors
Northwestern (NWE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.42B
Dividend Yield4.09%
Average Volume (3M)618.21K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0
Beta (1Y)0.18
Revenue Growth9.06%
EPS Growth-29.09%
CountryUS
Employees1,585
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.73
Shares Outstanding61,508,015
10 Day Avg. Volume712,131
30 Day Avg. Volume618,208
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.37
Price to Sales (P/S)2.46
P/FCF Ratio-30.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.34
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$69.90Price Target Upside-3.56% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)3.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.73B
Northwestern Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NorthWestern Corporation, doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and various industrial customers. The company operates through Electric and Natural Gas segments. It generates, purch...
How the Company Makes Money
NorthWestern Corporation primarily makes money by providing regulated electric and natural gas utility service and earning authorized returns on prudently incurred investments in utility infrastructure. Its core revenue streams are: (1) Regulated ...
Northwestern Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call contained several material positive developments: solid adjusted EPS growth (+7.4% YoY), reaffirmed 2026 guidance, strong shareholder approval for the merger (99.7% in favor), progress on data center development agreements (notably Quantica scaling to 1.1 GW), a maintained $3.2B capital plan with no 2026 equity need, dividend declaration, and favorable wildfire legislation. Offsetting these positives were near-term execution and recovery headwinds including a significant weather-driven volume shortfall (–$0.17/share), incremental Colstrip costs (~$48M annual) with partial unrecovered impacts, higher operating/depreciation/interest expense, regulatory timing uncertainty (Montana rate case), and execution risk on some data center projects (Zevi land issues) plus lack of sales tax relief in South Dakota. Overall, positive operational and strategic momentum (merger and large-load pipeline) outweighs the near-term cost and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Adjusted and GAAP EPS with Guidance Reaffirmed
GAAP diluted EPS of $1.03 and non-GAAP (adjusted) diluted EPS of $1.31 for Q1 2026; adjusted EPS rose 7.4% versus Q1 2025. Company reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $3.68–$3.83 and long-term EPS and rate base growth target of 4%–6%.
Negative Updates
Weather-Related Volume Shortfall
Warmest winter in over 100 years in Montana produced an unfavorable weather impact of $0.17 per share versus normal volumetric loads, reducing recoverable margin for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted and GAAP EPS with Guidance Reaffirmed
GAAP diluted EPS of $1.03 and non-GAAP (adjusted) diluted EPS of $1.31 for Q1 2026; adjusted EPS rose 7.4% versus Q1 2025. Company reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $3.68–$3.83 and long-term EPS and rate base growth target of 4%–6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 earnings guidance of $3.68–$3.83 and long‑term rate‑base and EPS growth targets of 4–6% (noting potential 5–7% with the Black Hills merger), declared a $0.67/share dividend payable 06/30/2026 (record 06/15), and reported Q1 GAAP diluted EPS of $1.03 and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.31 (a 7.4% YoY increase and up from $1.22 last quarter); Q1 was hurt by weather (-$0.17), included $0.05 of merger costs and $0.05 of unrecovered Colstrip operating expense (incremental Colstrip operating costs ~ $48M annually, about $12M/quarter, with ~$8M offset in Q1). They reaffirmed a $3.2B–$3.21B 2026–2030 capital plan (split roughly evenly between transmission, distribution and supply), said no common equity is needed in 2026 (equity needs expected in 2027 for incremental generation), and reiterated standalone targets of a 4% dividend yield, 4–6% EPS growth and an 8–10% total return (with upside to >6% EPS growth and >10% total return if incremental data center, regional transmission or other opportunities materialize). Management also highlighted data‑center progress (Quantica DA pacing from 25 MW to 1.1 GW targeted to start early 2029 and full ramp by ~2031; data‑center queue up to 8, 4 high‑level assessments, three development agreements aiming for ESAs in 2026), noted the March 2026 large‑new‑load tariff filing, and continues to expect key regulatory approvals (including a Dec FERC filing on a ~180‑day clock) during 2026; shareholders (~86% turnout) voted 99.7% in favor of the merger.Northwestern Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.64B | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.42B | 1.48B | 1.37B |
| Gross Profit | 1.02B | 1.33B | 1.29B | 781.36M | 764.40M | 946.77M |
| EBITDA | 577.25M | 587.44M | 574.43M | 526.15M | 477.53M | 471.40M |
| Net Income | 167.58M | 181.09M | 224.11M | 194.13M | 183.01M | 186.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.58B | 8.46B | 8.00B | 7.60B | 7.32B | 6.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.86M | 8.78M | 4.28M | 9.16M | 8.49M | 2.82M |
| Total Debt | 3.28B | 3.29B | 3.10B | 2.79B | 2.63B | 2.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.67B | 5.57B | 5.14B | 4.82B | 4.65B | 4.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.91B | 2.89B | 2.86B | 2.79B | 2.67B | 2.34B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -147.94M | -130.00M | -142.50M | -77.66M | -207.90M | -214.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 400.48M | 394.45M | 406.74M | 489.23M | 307.24M | 219.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -590.00M | -570.63M | -554.46M | -570.81M | -516.86M | -435.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 137.07M | 177.90M | 151.55M | 84.31M | 213.32M | 217.52M |
Northwestern Technical Analysis
Positive
72.48
Price Trends
69.85
Positive
68.59
Positive
64.07
Positive
Market Momentum
0.31
Positive
54.16
Neutral
72.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 72.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.65, above the 50-day MA of 69.85, and above the 200-day MA of 64.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWE.
Northwestern Risk Analysis
Northwestern disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Northwestern reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Northwestern Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.67B | 12.62 | 15.21% | 2.54% | -0.54% | -5.27% | |
67 Neutral | $2.80B | 14.58 | 10.94% | 2.36% | 8.91% | 10.48% | |
66 Neutral | $3.43B | 8.98 | 7.65% | 5.10% | -1.47% | 7.23% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $4.42B | 15.97 | 5.80% | 4.09% | 9.06% | -29.09% | |
64 Neutral | $5.66B | 9.99 | 7.60% | 3.91% | 3.58% | -1.83% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NWE
Northwestern
71.93
19.32
36.72%
AVA
Avista
41.47
4.40
11.86%
BKH
Black Hills
74.29
18.49
33.15%
MGEE
MGE Energy
76.06
-11.97
-13.59%
OTTR
Otter Tail
87.35
13.15
17.73%
Northwestern Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NorthWestern Reaffirms 2026 Earnings Guidance, Highlights Growth
Positive
May 18, 2026
From May 17 to 19, 2026, senior executives of NorthWestern Energy will attend the American Gas Association Financial Conference in Scottsdale, Arizona, and from May 18 will hold one-on-one meetings with current and prospective investors, using a s...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
NorthWestern Shareholders Endorse Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 5, 2026
On April 30, 2026, NorthWestern Energy Group held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with over 91 percent of its 61,499,066 outstanding common shares represented in person or by proxy. Stockholders elected all nine incumbent directors to one-year...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NorthWestern Highlights Regulatory Progress and Black Hills Merger Advances
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
NorthWestern Energy reported first-quarter 2026 GAAP earnings of $1.03 per diluted share, down from $1.25 a year earlier, while adjusted non-GAAP EPS rose to $1.31 from $1.22, as higher costs and merger-related expenses were partly offset by new r...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
NorthWestern Shareholders Approve Transformative All-Stock Merger
Positive
Apr 3, 2026
On April 2, 2026, NorthWestern Energy and Black Hills Corp. shareholders voted at special meetings to approve an all-stock merger first announced in August 2025, along with related executive compensation and adjournment proposals, with NorthWester...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.