Want to see NWE full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Northwestern
(NASDAQ:NWE)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$74.00
â–²(1.56% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is anchored by stable core utility fundamentals but constrained by weak free-cash-flow conversion and elevated leverage, which increase funding and interest-rate sensitivity. Earnings-call takeaways are constructive on guidance and operational progress, yet balanced by Colstrip recovery and merger/regulatory timing risks. Technicals and valuation are mixed: near-term price trend is slightly soft, and while the ~3.77% yield helps, the ~26.5 P/E limits valuation upside.
Positive Factors
Regulated business model
NorthWestern’s core regulated model creates predictable, tariff‑based cash flows tied to a growing rate base and approved riders. Over 2–6 months this durability supports steady revenue and margin recovery after cost passthroughs, reducing demand cyclicality risk versus unregulated peers.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Persistent negative free cash flow indicates internal cash generation is insufficient to fund capex and distributions. Over the medium term this raises reliance on external financing, increases refinancing and interest‑rate sensitivity, and constrains capital allocation flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated business model
NorthWestern’s core regulated model creates predictable, tariff‑based cash flows tied to a growing rate base and approved riders. Over 2–6 months this durability supports steady revenue and margin recovery after cost passthroughs, reducing demand cyclicality risk versus unregulated peers.
Read all positive factors
Northwestern (NWE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.23B
Dividend Yield3.87%
Average Volume (3M)618.21K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.6
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth10.69%
EPS Growth-24.15%
CountryUS
Employees1,667
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.79
Shares Outstanding61,517,850
10 Day Avg. Volume712,131
30 Day Avg. Volume618,208
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.37
Price to Sales (P/S)2.46
P/FCF Ratio-30.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$72.33Price Target Upside-0.72% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)3.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.73B
Northwestern Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NorthWestern Corporation, which conducts business under the name NorthWestern Energy, supplies electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and diverse industrial clients. The company organizes its operations into two primary divisions:...
How the Company Makes Money
NorthWestern makes money primarily through regulated utility operations. Its core revenue streams are (1) retail electricity sales and delivery service and (2) retail natural gas sales and delivery service to customers in its service territories. ...
Northwestern Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mix of encouraging operational and strategic progress—adjusted EPS growth, margin improvement, reaffirmed guidance, executed financing, a stable $3.2B capital plan, and multiple merger approvals—while highlighting material near-term challenges: unresolved Colstrip cost recovery, higher depreciation/interest, merger timing risk tied to the Montana commission, data center and transmission uncertainties, and local siting pushback. Management remains cautiously optimistic, reaffirming guidance and long-term targets, but several regulatory and cost-recovery issues create meaningful execution risk in the near term.Positive Updates
Quarterly EPS (GAAP and Adjusted)
Reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.40 and non-GAAP (adjusted) diluted EPS of $0.50 for Q2 2026. Adjusted EPS increased $0.10 versus Q2 2025, a 25% improvement (from $0.40 to $0.50).
Negative Updates
YTD GAAP Earnings Decline
Year-to-date GAAP earnings of $1.43 versus $1.60 prior year, a decline of $0.17 or approximately -10.6%, driven by weather effects in Q1 and higher costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly EPS (GAAP and Adjusted)
Reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.40 and non-GAAP (adjusted) diluted EPS of $0.50 for Q2 2026. Adjusted EPS increased $0.10 versus Q2 2025, a 25% improvement (from $0.40 to $0.50).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 earnings guidance of $3.68–$3.83 per share and reiterated long‑term rate base and EPS growth targets of 4%–6%, while reporting Q2 GAAP diluted EPS of $0.40 and adjusted (non‑GAAP) diluted EPS of $0.50; year‑to‑date GAAP EPS was $1.43 (vs. $1.60 prior) and adjusted EPS $1.81 (vs. $1.62 prior). Key quarter metrics included a $0.38 margin improvement, $0.12 of incremental Colstrip operating cost, $0.04 of merger costs, $0.05 of unrecovered Colstrip O&M, and a $0.01 unfavorable weather impact; the company affirmed its $3.2 billion 2026–2030 capital plan, declared a $0.67/share dividend payable Sept. 1, 2026 (record date Aug. 17), and reiterated its standalone proposition of ~4% dividend yield with 4%–6% EPS growth (8%–10% total return potential) and an expected combined merger EPS growth of 5%–7% with Black Hills.Northwestern Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.69B | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.42B | 1.48B | 1.37B |
| Gross Profit | 1.12B | 1.33B | 1.29B | 781.36M | 764.40M | 946.77M |
| EBITDA | 592.99M | 587.44M | 574.43M | 526.15M | 477.53M | 471.40M |
| Net Income | 171.37M | 181.09M | 224.11M | 194.13M | 183.01M | 186.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.70B | 8.46B | 8.00B | 7.60B | 7.32B | 6.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.18M | 8.78M | 4.28M | 9.16M | 8.49M | 2.82M |
| Total Debt | 3.60B | 3.44B | 3.10B | 2.79B | 2.63B | 2.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.81B | 5.57B | 5.14B | 4.82B | 4.65B | 4.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.90B | 2.89B | 2.86B | 2.79B | 2.67B | 2.34B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -192.16M | -130.00M | -142.50M | -77.66M | -207.90M | -214.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 416.09M | 394.45M | 406.74M | 489.23M | 307.24M | 219.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -649.72M | -570.63M | -554.46M | -570.81M | -516.86M | -435.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 232.18M | 177.90M | 151.55M | 84.31M | 213.32M | 217.52M |
Northwestern Technical Analysis
Negative
72.86
Price Trends
70.78
Negative
69.88
Negative
67.22
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.31
Positive
38.37
Neutral
6.00
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 72.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.59, above the 50-day MA of 70.78, and above the 200-day MA of 67.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NWE.
Northwestern Risk Analysis
Northwestern disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Northwestern reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Northwestern Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $3.71B | 13.20 | 15.21% | 2.39% | -0.54% | -5.27% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $3.00B | 20.39 | 10.94% | 2.31% | 8.91% | 10.48% | |
64 Neutral | $5.42B | 18.45 | 7.60% | 3.66% | 3.58% | -1.83% | |
61 Neutral | $3.34B | 16.05 | 7.65% | 4.67% | -1.47% | 7.23% | |
60 Neutral | $4.23B | 24.64 | 5.80% | 3.65% | 10.69% | -24.15% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NWE
Northwestern
68.90
16.55
31.61%
AVA
Avista
39.55
2.69
7.29%
BKH
Black Hills
71.23
14.53
25.63%
MGEE
MGE Energy
80.00
-2.63
-3.18%
OTTR
Otter Tail
90.16
11.27
14.29%
Northwestern Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NorthWestern posts stronger Q2 earnings and affirms guidance
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
NorthWestern Energy reported higher second-quarter 2026 results on July 29, 2026, with GAAP diluted EPS rising to $0.40 from $0.35 a year earlier and non-GAAP diluted EPS increasing to $0.50 from $0.40, driven by new rates and retail volumes but p...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Northwestern Notes New Direct Financial Obligation Disclosure
Neutral
Jun 22, 2026
Northwestern filed a brief regulatory statement that cross-references information previously disclosed in another section of its filing, rather than providing new operational or financial details. The release offers no additional context on the co...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NorthWestern Secures $225 Million Term Loan Financing
Neutral
Jun 2, 2026
On May 27, 2026, NorthWestern Corporation entered into a $225 million secured term loan with a syndicate of banks led by Bank of America and immediately drew the full amount to repay a portion of its existing $425 million unsecured revolving credi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NorthWestern Reaffirms 2026 Guidance at Investor Meetings
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On June 2, 2026, NorthWestern Energy’s CFO Crystal Lail, investor relations head Travis Meyer and treasurer Emilie Ng met investors in Boston during a non-deal roadshow, and on June 4, 2026, they participated in the Mizuho Mid-Cap Utilities ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NorthWestern Highlights Growth Strategy in Investor Outreach Events
Positive
May 27, 2026
On May 27, 2026, NorthWestern Energy executives Crystal Lail and Travis Meyer attended the Bank of America Power, Utilities Cleantech Conference in New York to meet current and prospective investors. The company used a slide presentation at the e...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NorthWestern Reaffirms 2026 Earnings Guidance, Highlights Growth
Positive
May 18, 2026
From May 17 to 19, 2026, senior executives of NorthWestern Energy will attend the American Gas Association Financial Conference in Scottsdale, Arizona, and from May 18 will hold one-on-one meetings with current and prospective investors, using a s...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
NorthWestern Shareholders Endorse Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 5, 2026
On April 30, 2026, NorthWestern Energy Group held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with over 91 percent of its 61,499,066 outstanding common shares represented in person or by proxy. Stockholders elected all nine incumbent directors to one-year...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NorthWestern Highlights Regulatory Progress and Black Hills Merger Advances
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
NorthWestern Energy reported first-quarter 2026 GAAP earnings of $1.03 per diluted share, down from $1.25 a year earlier, while adjusted non-GAAP EPS rose to $1.31 from $1.22, as higher costs and merger-related expenses were partly offset by new r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.