Northwestern (NWE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.20B
• Dividend Yield: 4.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 458.77K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: 4.31%
• EPS Growth: 19.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,585
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Diversified Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 1.22
• Shares Outstanding: 61,379,650
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 430,573
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 458,771
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -24.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.78
• 1Y Price Target: $59.57
• Price Target Upside: 14.32% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $58.00 ▲(11.30%Upside)

Northwestern Energy's overall score reflects its solid financial standing and attractive valuation, bolstered by positive earnings call insights and strategic corporate events. However, technical indicators show potential short-term weakness, and cash flow challenges remain a concern. The company's growth prospects and dividend yield make it appealing for long-term investors, though regulatory headwinds in Montana should be monitored.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

NorthWestern Energy Group delivered strong 1Q25 results, indicating successful regulatory outcomes, infrastructure investment, and load growth opportunities.

Growth Opportunities

Growth visibility is improving with letters of intent from Altus Power and Sabey, which could lead to contracts and require new resources, enhancing potential growth.

Regulatory Environment

The regulatory environment in Montana is improving with multi-party settlements in rate cases, and legislative changes reducing wildfire-related liabilities, which de-risks the company.

Negative Factors

Operating Costs

Gains were partially offset by higher operating costs, increased depreciation, milder weather, and increased interest expense.

Rate Base Disputes

The Montana Consumer Counsel proposed adjustment disallows a portion of the Yellowstone Country Generation Station rate base due to costs exceeding the original budget.

Regulatory Challenges

The profile has a noisy regulatory history coupled with an expectation of more frequent filings going forward, and wildfire tail risks relative to the size of the company.

Northwestern Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NorthWestern Corporation, doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and various industrial customers. The company operates through Electric and Natural Gas segments. It generates, purchases, transmits, and distributes electricity; and produces, purchases, stores, transmits, and distributes natural gas, as well as owns municipal franchises to provide natural gas service in the communities. The company operates 6,819 miles of electric transmission and 18,177 miles of electric distribution lines with approximately 400 transmission and distribution substations; and 2,166 miles of natural gas transmission and 4,945 miles of natural gas distribution lines with approximately 138 city gate stations in Montana. It also operates 1,308 miles of electric transmission and 2,320 miles of electric distribution lines in South Dakota; and 55 miles of natural gas transmission and 2,517 miles of natural gas distribution lines in South Dakota and Nebraska. The company serves approximately 753,600 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. NorthWestern Corporation was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

How the Company Makes Money

NorthWestern Energy generates revenue through the sale of electricity and natural gas to its customers. The company's key revenue streams include residential, commercial, and industrial energy sales, where customers are billed for the amount of electricity and natural gas consumed. Additionally, NorthWestern Energy may earn revenue through regulatory mechanisms that allow for cost recovery and return on investment in infrastructure projects. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and investments in renewable energy sources that can enhance its service offerings and appeal to environmentally conscious consumers. NorthWestern Energy's earnings are influenced by factors such as regulatory decisions, energy demand fluctuations, and fuel cost variations.

Northwestern Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northwestern demonstrates solid profitability with strong margins and a stable balance sheet, although cash flow management poses concerns due to negative free cash flow driven by significant capital expenditures.

Income Statement

Northwestern's income statement shows strong profitability with a notable gross profit margin of 96.47% TTM, supported by a solid net profit margin of 15.68% TTM. However, the revenue growth has been inconsistent, showing a slight decline of 0.57% from the previous annual period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 22.98% and 39.65% TTM, respectively, indicating efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects stability with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.08, suggesting manageable leverage. The return on equity (ROE) stands at a robust 8.15% TTM, demonstrating effective use of shareholder funds. An equity ratio of 35.75% highlights a solid equity base, though there's room for improvement in reducing liabilities.

Cash Flow

Northwestern's cash flow statement presents challenges, with a negative free cash flow and a concerning free cash flow growth rate of -5.87%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.69 TTM, indicating strong cash-generating ability relative to profits, but the negative free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.57 highlights significant capital expenditures impacting liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.51B	1.51B	1.42B	1.48B	1.37B	1.20B
Gross Profit	1.31B	1.29B	781.36M	985.80M	946.77M	892.48M
EBITDA	596.60M	574.43M	526.15M	466.58M	456.95M	416.19M
Net Income	235.97M	224.11M	194.13M	183.01M	186.84M	155.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.10B	8.00B	7.60B	7.32B	6.78B	6.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	56.02M	4.28M	9.16M	8.49M	2.82M	5.81M
Total Debt	3.14B	3.10B	2.79B	2.63B	2.56B	2.43B
Total Liabilities	5.21B	5.14B	4.82B	4.65B	4.44B	4.31B
Stockholders Equity	2.90B	2.86B	2.79B	2.67B	2.34B	2.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-134.16M	-142.50M	-77.66M	-207.90M	-214.35M	-53.61M
Operating Cash Flow	398.46M	406.74M	489.23M	307.24M	219.98M	352.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-542.17M	-554.46M	-570.81M	-516.86M	-435.83M	-405.80M
Financing Cash Flow	203.40M	151.55M	84.31M	213.32M	217.52M	58.68M

Northwestern Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 52.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 52.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.14, below the 50-day MA of 52.66, and below the 200-day MA of 53.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NWE.

Northwestern Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MGEE	73 Outperform	$3.17B	24.58	10.62%	2.08%	6.03%	6.15%
NWE	73 Outperform	$3.20B	13.66	8.27%	4.98%	4.31%	19.33%
OTTR	72 Outperform	$3.27B	11.10	18.38%	2.53%	-2.68%	-3.73%
AVA	72 Outperform	$2.98B	15.90	7.25%	5.22%	3.14%	-2.66%
ALE	69 Neutral	$3.81B	20.61	6.49%	4.37%	-11.15%	-23.41%
BKH	68 Neutral	$4.08B	14.37	8.02%	4.68%	3.28%	-3.49%
Sector *	66 Neutral	¥346.97B	7.85	9.28%	2.63%	2.32%	8.48%

Northwestern Corporate Events

NorthWestern Energy Highlights at Mizuho Utilities Conference

On June 5, 2025, NorthWestern Energy’s top executives participated in Mizuho’s Mid-Cap Utilities Conference in New York, engaging with analysts and investors to provide insights into the company’s operations and future prospects. The presentation highlighted NorthWestern Energy’s strategic focus on maintaining a strong utility foundation, with ongoing investments aimed at enhancing reliability and capacity to meet future energy demands. The company emphasized its commitment to sustainable growth, with a significant portion of its energy supply being carbon-free, and outlined its financial goals, including a target EPS growth of 4%-6% and maintaining a competitive total return for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Hold with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.

NorthWestern Energy Highlights at Power and Utilities Conference

On May 28, 2025, NorthWestern Energy’s executives participated in Bank of America’s Power and Utilities Conference in New York, engaging with investors to discuss the company’s strategic direction and financial outlook. The presentation highlighted NorthWestern Energy’s focus on sustainable growth through investments in energy supply and infrastructure, aiming for a 4%-6% annual earnings growth. The company emphasized its commitment to maintaining a strong utility foundation with a carbon-free supply portfolio and its recognition for governance and emergency response efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Buy with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.

NorthWestern Executives to Attend Financial Forum

On May 19-20, 2025, NorthWestern Energy’s senior executives will participate in the American Gas Association’s Financial Forum in Florida, engaging with investors and presenting company information. The company is focused on long-term growth, with plans for significant capital investment aimed at enhancing earnings and meeting energy capacity needs. NorthWestern Energy’s strategic initiatives include maintaining strong customer satisfaction, investing in energy supply and infrastructure, and leveraging its carbon-free energy portfolio to strengthen its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWE) stock is a Buy with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northwestern stock, see the NWE Stock Forecast page.

NorthWestern Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

NorthWestern Energy Group reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, showing an increase in net income to $76.9 million, or $1.25 per diluted share, compared to $65.1 million, or $1.06 per diluted share, in the same period of 2024. The company’s earnings were boosted by new rates, higher retail volumes, and increased transmission revenues, despite facing higher expenses and lower tax collections. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.66 per share, payable on June 30, 2025. Additionally, NorthWestern achieved a legislative milestone with the passage of House Bill 490 in Montana, which clarifies wildfire-related liabilities, enhancing the company’s risk management capabilities. The company is affirming its long-term growth rates and capital investment plans, aiming for a 4% to 6% growth rate in EPS and rate base.