Saul Centers (BFS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $809.59M
• Dividend Yield: 7.89%
• Average Volume (3M): 68.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: 5.75%
• EPS Growth: -37.69%
• Country: US
• Employees: 141
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 24,495,775
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 62,577
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 68,640
• PEG Ratio: -3.71
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.44
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $304.00M

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(15.64% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is primarily driven by stable operating performance and cash generation, but materially tempered by high leverage and weaker 2025 bottom-line profitability. Technicals are moderately constructive, while valuation is mixed (strong yield offset by a high P/E).

Positive Factors

Steady revenue growth and high property-level margins

Consistent top-line growth across 2021–2025 and very strong gross margins indicate durable, property-level profitability tied to long-term leases. This supports predictable rental cash flows, tenant retention and reinvestment capacity, underpinning stable operating performance over months.

Consistent operating and free cash flow generation

Repeated positive operating cash flow and annual free cash flow provide a steady internal funding source for dividends, maintenance capex and selective development. Persistent cash generation enhances resilience and supports capital allocation despite sector cycles over the medium term.

Focused, high-quality local portfolio and tenant relationships

Concentration in the Washington D.C. metro with mixed-use retail and multifamily properties creates a competitive local moat. Strong tenant relationships and prime locations sustain occupancy, steady leasing demand and opportunities for value-adding redevelopment over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

High leverage and elevated debt-to-equity

Material leverage (debt-to-equity well above peer norms) reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. In a rising rate or stress scenario this constraint can force higher interest costs, slower investment and tighter liquidity over the medium term.

Weaker net profitability and margin compression in 2025

Declining net income and a meaningful drop in net margin signal erosion below strong property-level margins, likely from higher financing or operating costs. Lower bottom-line conversion limits retained earnings, pressures dividend sustainability and reduces headroom for growth investments.

Thin cash-flow coverage relative to debt

A very low operating-cash-flow-to-debt ratio indicates limited cushion to absorb revenue shocks or higher interest costs. This elevates refinancing and liquidity risk and constrains the firm's ability to pursue opportunistic development or absorb cyclical lease volatility over the coming months.

Saul Centers Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Saul Centers, Inc. is a self-managed, self-administered equity REIT headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, which currently operates and manages a real estate portfolio of 60 properties which includes (a) 50 community and neighborhood shopping centers and seven mixed-use properties with approximately 9.8 million square feet of leasable area and (b) three land and development properties. Approximately 85% of the Saul Centers' property operating income is generated by properties in the metropolitan Washington, DC/Baltimore area.

How the Company Makes Money

Saul Centers generates revenue primarily through leasing and rental income from its portfolio of retail and mixed-use properties. The company's revenue model is built on long-term leases with tenants, which provides a steady stream of rental income. Key revenue streams include base rent, additional rent for operating expenses, and percentage rents based on tenant sales in some cases. The company also benefits from property appreciation and potential development projects, which can add value to its holdings. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community stakeholders further enhance its market position and contribute to its earnings by attracting diverse tenants and driving foot traffic to its properties.

Saul Centers Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Stable revenue growth and strong gross profitability with consistently positive operating cash flow and free cash flow. The score is held back by a highly leveraged balance sheet (elevated debt-to-equity) and weaker 2025 net profitability (lower net income and margin), which reduces financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2021–2025 (annual revenue growth positive each year, accelerating to ~2.6% in 2025), and gross profitability is strong (gross margin ~73–89%). However, net profitability has softened recently: net income declined in 2025 vs. 2023–2024 and net margin fell to ~12.9% in 2025 from ~18–20% in 2021–2024. Overall: solid top-line stability with high underlying property-level profitability, but weaker bottom-line conversion in the most recent year.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key constraint. Debt-to-equity remains high across the period (~2.8x–4.6x), with 2025 still elevated (~3.5x), which reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing/interest-rate sensitivity. Equity has drifted down versus earlier years (from ~405M in 2021 to ~308M in 2025), while assets are relatively stable (~1.75B to ~2.16B). Return on equity has been decent (~12–15%), but it is being achieved with meaningful leverage, keeping balance-sheet quality below average.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally solid: operating cash flow is consistently positive (~78M–121M) and free cash flow is also positive each year. Free cash flow roughly matches net income in most years (and exceeded it in 2020 and 2022), supporting dividend/financing capacity. That said, free cash flow declined in 2025 (~-6.2% growth), and cash flow relative to the debt load appears light in 2025 (operating cash flow coverage ratio ~0.09), suggesting reduced cushion versus leverage compared with prior years.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	291.56M	268.85M	257.21M	245.86M	239.22M
Gross Profit	89.52M	196.79M	190.07M	181.34M	177.60M
EBITDA	178.55M	171.72M	166.61M	156.39M	155.64M
Net Income	37.51M	50.65M	52.69M	50.19M	48.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.16B	2.13B	1.99B	1.83B	1.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.74M	10.30M	8.41M	13.28M	14.59M
Total Debt	1.61B	1.53B	1.39B	1.22B	1.14B
Total Liabilities	1.69B	1.63B	1.49B	1.31B	1.22B
Stockholders Equity	307.82M	335.75M	348.39M	400.48M	405.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	99.80M	121.22M	117.73M	140.16M	118.38M
Operating Cash Flow	99.80M	121.22M	117.73M	121.15M	118.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-95.81M	-188.73M	-203.68M	-116.89M	-55.87M
Financing Cash Flow	-5.54M	69.40M	81.08M	-5.58M	-74.77M

Saul Centers Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 31.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BFS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 31.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.32, below the 50-day MA of 33.04, and below the 200-day MA of 31.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BFS.

Saul Centers Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WSR	71 Outperform	$1.68B	7.70	11.37%	3.97%	4.44%	107.23%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
BFS	63 Neutral	$809.59M	20.34	11.77%	7.89%	5.75%	-37.69%
SITC	62 Neutral	$297.46M	1.89	43.13%	―	-69.63%	-95.99%
AKR	62 Neutral	$2.69B	198.19	0.75%	3.83%	8.85%	27.38%
CBL	57 Neutral	$1.14B	8.26	41.49%	6.79%	5.74%	294.33%
ALX	51 Neutral	$1.24B	39.65	20.68%	8.39%	-7.52%	-22.75%