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Acadia Realty Trust (AKR)
NYSE:AKR
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Acadia Realty
(NYSE:AKR)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$21.50
▲(2.43% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/14/26
The score is driven primarily by steady financial performance anchored by strong, consistently positive cash flows, and a positive earnings-call outlook with clear 2026 guidance and a visible leasing/redevelopment pipeline. These positives are tempered by thin/volatile net profitability and an expensive valuation on P/E, while technicals are neutral and do not provide a strong momentum tailwind.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Consistently positive and improving operating cash flow (≈$167M in 2025) and stepped-up free cash flow provide durable internal funding. This strengthens the REIT’s ability to finance redevelopments, close accretive acquisitions, sustain distributions, and absorb cyclical stress without urgent external capital.
Leasing & NOI Momentum
Sustained same-property NOI growth and outsized street mark-to-market spreads (>50% on notable leases) reflect pricing power and strong tenant sales. Higher occupancies and embedded mark-to-market upside create a multi-period earnings runway as vacancies convert to market rents and redevelopments stabilize.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Reasonable leverage metrics, low-ish WAC and meaningful unencumbered liquidity give Acadia durable financial flexibility. Access to funding and limited near-term maturities support planned redevelopments, acquisitions, and the investment management platform without forcing dilutive capital raises.
Negative Factors
Low Return on Equity
ROE near 0.8% indicates the sizable asset and equity base is generating limited bottom-line returns. Over the medium term, persistently low ROE constrains shareholder value creation absent sustained NOI expansion, asset rotations or material margin improvement across the portfolio.
Timing / Execution Sensitivity
Meaningful earnings sensitivity to lease commencement timing makes near-term FFO and NOI outcomes dependent on execution cadence. Redevelopments, lease-ups and signed-not-open pipeline can shift cash flows materially month-to-month, creating durable operational risk while projects stabilize.
Credit Loss & Occupancy
Management’s higher assumed credit losses signal elevated provisioning risk or conservative reserves, which can depress distributable earnings if trends worsen. Combined with occupancy below prior peaks and competitive pressure in core markets, this raises medium-term downside to cash collection and FFO.
Acadia Realty (AKR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.80B
Dividend Yield3.83%
Average Volume (3M)1.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)220.2
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth8.85%
EPS Growth27.38%
CountryUS
Employees129
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding131,039,380
10 Day Avg. Volume858,196
30 Day Avg. Volume1,103,807
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.96
Price to Book (P/B)1.21
Price to Sales (P/S)6.55
P/FCF Ratio16.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.65
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit22.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.67Price Target Upside12.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$386.48M
Acadia Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAcadia Realty Trust is an equity real estate investment trust focused on delivering long-term, profitable growth via its dual Core Portfolio and Fund operating platforms and its disciplined, location-driven investment strategy. Acadia Realty Trust is accomplishing this goal by building a best-in-class core real estate portfolio with meaningful concentrations of assets in the nation's most dynamic corridors; making profitable opportunistic and value-add investments through its series of discretionary, institutional funds; and maintaining a strong balance sheet.
How the Company Makes MoneyAcadia Realty generates revenue primarily through leasing its retail and mixed-use properties to tenants, which provide steady rental income. The company benefits from long-term leases with creditworthy tenants, ensuring consistent cash flow. Additionally, Acadia engages in property development and redevelopment projects, which can yield significant returns when completed and leased. The company also realizes income from property sales and can capitalize on appreciation in real estate values. Strategic partnerships with retailers and developers enhance its portfolio's attractiveness, while market demand for prime retail space drives occupancy rates and rental rates, contributing to overall revenue growth.
Acadia Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial narrative: solid same-property NOI growth, high leasing activity with outsized rent spreads on street assets, significant acquisition and redevelopment momentum, and a well-capitalized balance sheet with dry powder. Management highlighted clear 2026 guidance while emphasizing multiple drivers for multi-year growth (lease-up, mark-to-market, redevelopments, Henderson Avenue). Headwinds and risks cited include timing of rent commencements (each month ≈ $750k impact), conservative credit-loss assumptions, remaining occupancy below historic peaks, increased acquisition competition, and execution risk around accelerating mark-to-market opportunities. On balance, the positive operational results, robust pipeline, and balance-sheet flexibility substantially outweigh the execution and timing risks noted.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Same-Property NOI and Earnings
Reported same-property NOI growth of 6.3% in Q4 and 5.7% for the full year 2025; GAAP EPS of $0.34 in Q4 (includes $0.03 Albertsons gain) and an adjusted run-rate of $0.30 for the quarter (excluding one-time items), up from a $0.29 comparable run-rate in Q3.
Exceptional Street Leasing Performance and Rent Spreads
Street portfolio delivered average mark-to-market spreads in excess of 50%; notable signed spreads included UGG on North 6th Street (72%), Melrose Place (60%), Newbury Street (58%), and a Soho pryloss transaction at a 51% spread.
Robust Tenant Sales and Sales-driven Rent Upside
Year-over-year tenant sales on street assets ranged roughly 10% to as high as 30–40% in some markets, providing a strong foundation for continued rent growth and mark-to-market upside.
Occupancy Recovery and Embedded Upside
Economic shop occupancy rose from ~81% at end of 2021 to over 90% today (≈ +900 bps since 2021); REIT economic occupancy increased to 93.9% and street & urban occupancy increased ~80 bps in Q4 and ~370 bps over 2025, implying meaningful embedded NOI upside as remaining vacancy is leased.
Active Acquisition and Investment Activity
Closed over $1.3 billion of acquisitions in the past 24 months (including >$500M of street retail for the REIT and >$800M of value-add for the investment management platform); 2025 and to-date acquisitions near $1 billion with ~ $400M in REIT transactions; ~ $150M of street-retail deals currently under agreement (expected to close in Q1).
Pipeline and Near-Term Leasing Momentum
Signed-not-open and advanced-negotiation leasing pipeline of roughly $8.9–$9+ million ABR (about 4% of in-place rents); management expects ~ $4M of ABR to be reflected in 2026 NOI and the remaining ~$4.9M in 2027; AJ noted the pipeline of deals in advanced negotiation exceeds $9M, up ~$1M sequentially.
Clear 2026 Guidance and Multi-Year Targets
2026 FFO as adjusted guidance of $1.21–$1.25; same-property NOI guidance of +5% to +9% (ex-redevelopments) with Street expected to outperform Suburban by ~400 bps; total pro rata NOI expected to increase ~15% to ~$230M (midpoint) vs ~$200M in 2025.
Healthy Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Pro rata debt/EBITDA ~5x, weighted average borrowing cost ~4.5%, no material 2026 maturities, and several $100M of available capacity ('dry powder'); Henderson development fully funded and debt markets accessible at attractive spreads per management.
High-Impact Redevelopment and Development Pipeline
Redevelopment pipeline includes $3.5M of executed leases expected online late 2026 (largely two San Francisco projects); management estimates those two projects could add $7–$9M NOI (≈ 3–5¢ FFO) beyond 2026; Henderson Avenue development expected to stabilize in 2027–28 and deliver a high-single-digit yield on cost (3–5¢ FFO upon stabilization for phase one).
Negative Updates
Guidance Sensitivities — Timing of Rent Commencements
Management noted that ~4% of ABR is expected to commence in 2026 and each month of acceleration/delay in commencement equates to roughly $750,000 of impact, making timing risk a meaningful swing factor for 2026 results.
Credit Loss Assumptions and Reserve Caution
2026 guidance assumes ~115 basis points of credit loss against minimum rents at the midpoint (management noted 150 bps is conservative vs ~50 bps average over the prior two years), signaling heightened caution around credit trends and a potential drag if stress increases.
Occupancy Still Below Prior Peaks
Although occupancy has improved materially, street and urban occupancy remains ~90% versus prior peak levels above 95%, leaving continued execution required to capture embedded NOI and creating short-term downtime risk when re-tenanting to market rents.
Market Competition and Concentration Risks
Management acknowledged increased competition in core markets (e.g., New York) and noted concentration concerns (particularly relative overexposure in Chicago), with plans to prune holdings in markets where scale is lacking — a potential near-term source of disposition activity or slower growth if execution missteps occur.
Execution Risk on Prune/Pralose Strategy
The pry-loose / blend-and-extend approach can accelerate mark-to-market but may cause short-term downtime and retenanting costs; management did not include most of this upside in base guidance, reflecting execution/ timing uncertainty.
FFO Metric Change and Excluded Items
Company simplified reporting and introduced 'FFO as adjusted' which excludes gains from the investment management business and other noncomparable items — while intended to clarify core results, this change reduces comparability with prior GAAP-based metrics and could mask volatility from IM fees/gains.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 FFO as adjusted of $1.21–$1.25 per share and same‑property NOI growth of 5%–9% (ex‑redevelopments), with Street expected to outperform Suburban by ~400 bps; they noted $1.4M ≈ $0.01 of FFO (roughly 100 bps of same‑property NOI ≈ a penny), assumed credit loss of ~115 bps against minimum rents (vs. ~50 bps average the last two years), and an $8.9M signed‑not‑open pipeline (~4% of in‑place rents) with ~ $4M ABR expected to hit NOI in 2026 and $4.9M in 2027; pro‑rata NOI (including redevelopments and IM) is expected to rise ~15% to roughly $230M (from ~$200M in 2025); redevelopment items include $3.5M of executed leases coming online late‑2026 and two San Francisco projects estimated to add $7–9M NOI (~3–5¢ FFO) beyond 2026, Henderson Avenue is expected to stabilize in 2027–28 with a high‑single‑digit yield on cost (≈3–5¢ FFO at stabilization), and the balance sheet is positioned for growth with pro‑rata debt/EBITDA ≈5x, WAC ~4.5%, no material 2026 maturities, five‑year unsecured funding available at similar pricing, and several $100M of dry powder.Acadia Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are supported by consistently positive and improving cash generation (operating cash flow up to ~$167M in 2025 and higher free cash flow), and revenue has trended up over time. Offsetting this, net profitability is thin and has been volatile (including loss years), and while leverage has improved (debt-to-equity ~0.81–0.86 in 2024–2025), returns on equity remain low (~0.76% in 2025).Income Statement
Revenue has generally trended higher over the period (annual revenue rising from ~$251M in 2020 to ~$411M in 2025), indicating steady top-line progress. Profitability is positive in most recent years, but remains thin (2025 net margin ~4.1% vs. ~6.0% in 2024), and results have shown volatility with losses in 2020 and 2022. Operating profitability looks solid on a gross basis (gross margin ~69–70% in 2024–2025), but the step-down in margins and relatively modest net income level versus revenue keep the score in the mid-range.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is meaningful, which is common for REITs, but still a key constraint: debt-to-equity sits below 1.0 in 2024–2025 (~0.81–0.86), improving versus earlier years when it was consistently above 1.0. Equity has grown (to ~$2.23B in 2025), supporting the capital base, but returns on equity are low (~0.76% in 2025), reflecting limited bottom-line earnings power relative to the balance sheet size. Overall, improving leverage trends are a positive, but low returns and still-high absolute debt keep the profile moderate.56
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow increased from ~$140M (2024) to ~$167M (2025), and free cash flow also stepped up meaningfully in 2025 (strong growth versus 2024). Free cash flow has been consistently positive across all years provided, which supports resilience through the cycle. That said, year-to-year free cash flow growth has been volatile (declines in some years), and one coverage datapoint in 2025 appears unreliable (shown as 0.0), so the score reflects strong but not perfectly consistent cash-flow quality.74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 410.76M | 359.69M | 338.69M | 326.29M | 292.50M |
| Gross Profit | 207.51M | 247.64M | 230.22M | 224.36M | 193.62M |
| EBITDA | 213.17M | 239.82M | 227.79M | 150.89M | 217.61M |
| Net Income | 13.58M | 21.65M | 19.87M | -35.45M | 23.55M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.84B | 4.37B | 4.29B | 4.30B | 4.26B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 56.90M | 31.58M | 50.77M | 17.16M | 17.75M |
| Total Debt | 1.91B | 1.67B | 2.01B | 1.91B | 1.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.21B | 1.84B | 2.16B | 2.05B | 2.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.23B | 2.07B | 1.64B | 1.69B | 1.52B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 166.98M | 60.20M | 86.22M | 74.17M | 59.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 166.98M | 140.45M | 155.76M | 133.21M | 104.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -450.46M | -170.66M | -208.54M | -124.17M | -198.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 300.67M | 44.62M | 45.85M | -4.38M | 91.32M |
Acadia Realty Technical Analysis
Positive
20.99
Price Trends
20.57
Positive
20.17
Positive
19.62
Positive
Market Momentum
0.09
Negative
57.69
Neutral
83.95
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.59, above the 50-day MA of 20.57, and above the 200-day MA of 19.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AKR.
Acadia Realty Risk Analysis
Acadia Realty disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Acadia Realty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Acadia Realty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $2.42B | 21.94 | 6.65% | 3.26% | 9.40% | 1433.20% | |
75 Outperform | $2.82B | 23.38 | 7.31% | 6.10% | 8.28% | 1.49% | |
74 Outperform | $1.98B | 24.37 | 7.79% | 6.77% | 8.17% | 9.96% | |
70 Outperform | $2.97B | 74.56 | 2.72% | 3.13% | ― | ― | |
69 Neutral | $2.31B | 253.29 | 0.50% | 4.61% | 19.92% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $2.80B | 220.21 | 0.57% | 3.83% | 8.85% | 27.38% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AKR
Acadia Realty
20.99
-1.14
-5.15%
GTY
Getty Realty
33.13
4.10
14.12%
FCPT
Four Corners Property
25.67
-1.80
-6.55%
IVT
InvenTrust Properties
31.09
2.40
8.37%
NTST
NETSTREIT
20.94
6.80
48.09%
CURB
Curbline Properties Corp.
28.22
4.78
20.39%
Acadia Realty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Acadia Realty Announces Retirement of Senior Administrative Executive
Neutral
Feb 6, 2026
On February 3, 2026, Acadia Realty Trust announced that Senior Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer Joseph Napolitano plans to retire, with his departure effective on or about April 1, 2026, and emphasized that his decision did not stem from any disagreement over the company’s operations, policies or accounting practices. The company will not appoint a new Chief Administrative Officer, instead redistributing the role’s responsibilities among existing members of management, a move that signals a potential streamlining of its executive structure while maintaining continuity in its administrative and operational oversight.
The most recent analyst rating on (AKR) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Realty stock, see the AKR Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Acadia Realty Announces New Chief Accounting Officer Appointment
Positive
Dec 19, 2025
On December 19, 2025, Acadia Realty Trust announced that David Buell will join the company as Chief Accounting Officer effective January 5, 2026, succeeding long-time executive Richard Hartmann as the firm’s principal accounting officer. Buell, a certified public accountant with more than 15 years of leadership experience at another publicly traded real estate investment trust and prior audit experience at KPMG, will receive a compensation package that includes a $375,000 base salary, eligibility for annual cash and equity bonuses, a one-time $500,000 equity award with five-year cliff vesting, and a one-time signing award split between cash and equity, underscoring Acadia’s effort to secure seasoned financial leadership. Hartmann, who has been with Acadia since 1997 and served as Chief Accounting Officer since 2012, will remain with the company in a new role as Senior Vice President, Strategic Initiatives, signaling a planned and orderly transition that maintains continuity in the finance function while positioning the REIT for its next phase of strategic and operational execution.
The most recent analyst rating on (AKR) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Realty stock, see the AKR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.