Acadia Realty (AKR) AI Stock Analysis

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Acadia Realty

(NYSE:AKR)

Rating:67Neutral

Price Target:

$21.50

▲(7.82%Upside)

Acadia Realty's overall stock score reflects a strong financial foundation and positive growth outlook, particularly in street retail. However, technical indicators suggest caution, and the high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns. The earnings call provided optimism, but economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures remain potential headwinds.

Positive Factors

Financial Metrics

Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA – Core & Funds was 5.7x, first time below 6.0x in many years.

Growth Expectations

2025 SSNOI growth was reaffirmed at 5-6%, implying acceleration.

Leasing Performance

Improved leasing at key retail corridors like Rush and Walton (93% vs 78.4% prior) and M Street (95.3% vs 88.5% prior).

Negative Factors

Interest Expense

A slight increase in interest expense is anticipated.

Revenue Assumptions

There is a reduction in the net promote assumption for 2026, down from $17.5m in 2025 to $6m, due to no expected monetization from Albertsons Company.

Acadia Realty (AKR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.60B

Dividend Yield3.84%

Average Volume (3M)945.42K

Price to Earnings (P/E)118.1

Beta (1Y)0.92

Revenue Growth2.62%

EPS Growth84.20%

CountryUS

Employees129

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength64

IndustryREIT - Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)<0.01

Shares Outstanding130,960,920

10 Day Avg. Volume942,442

30 Day Avg. Volume945,419

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.63

Price to Book (P/B)0.99

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio10.39

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.36

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.42

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.63

Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.06

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$24.40

Price Target Upside22.37% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

Acadia Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAcadia Realty Trust is an equity real estate investment trust focused on delivering long-term, profitable growth via its dual Core Portfolio and Fund operating platforms and its disciplined, location-driven investment strategy. Acadia Realty Trust is accomplishing this goal by building a best-in-class core real estate portfolio with meaningful concentrations of assets in the nation's most dynamic corridors; making profitable opportunistic and value-add investments through its series of discretionary, institutional funds; and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

How the Company Makes MoneyAcadia Realty Trust generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of retail properties. The company leases space to tenants under long-term contracts, providing a stable and predictable cash flow. Revenue is also enhanced through strategic property redevelopments, which can increase rental rates and property values. Additionally, Acadia Realty may earn income from property sales and joint ventures, where it collaborates with partners to capitalize on development opportunities or share in the investment and operational risks. The REIT structure allows Acadia to benefit from favorable tax treatment, as it is required to distribute a significant portion of its taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends, which are a key factor in attracting and retaining investors.

Acadia Realty Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 2.05%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects strong internal growth driven by street retail and significant external growth through strategic acquisitions. Consumer spending remains resilient, supporting robust leasing activity. However, concerns about inflationary pressures, economic uncertainty, and market volatility impacting cost of capital are noted as potential headwinds. Challenges in suburban markets are also highlighted, but they are being addressed with re-leasing efforts.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Internal Growth Driven by Street Retail

Achieved 6.8% same-store growth from street retail portfolio. Leasing pipeline includes over $6 million in advanced stages of negotiation, with expectations to exceed last year’s record leasing volume of $12.5 million.

Significant External Growth and Acquisitions

Completed over $370 million of acquisitions year-to-date. Key acquisitions include street retail properties in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, and Flatiron/Union Square, Manhattan, contributing to strong FFO accretion.

Robust Leasing Activity and Resilient Consumer Spending

Signed new core leases totaling over $5 million in ABR. Consumer spending remains resilient, with double-digit sales growth in key street markets like SoHo and The Gold Coast.

Investment Management Platform Leverage

Closed over $800 million of acquisitions in the past 12 months. The platform is well-positioned to capitalize on dislocations in the market, with opportunities for high-teen returns.

Negative Updates

Inflationary Pressures and Economic Uncertainty

Concerns about inflationary pressures from tariffs and economic slowdown creating stagflation. Potential policy-driven recession could impact tenant margins.

Impact of Market Volatility on Cost of Capital

Increased cost of capital for both private buyers and public companies, impacting external growth opportunities.

Challenges in Suburban Markets

Anticipated termination of a local suburban tenant at Maribo Plaza caused a decline in occupancy. However, the space has been re-leased at a positive spread.

Company Guidance

During the Acadia Realty Trust First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, management provided guidance that highlighted continued momentum in both internal and external growth. Internally, the Street retail segment drove substantial growth with a 6.8% same-store growth rate. The company's leasing pipeline was robust, with over $6 million in additional leases in advanced stages and $9 million in annual base rent from the signed not-yet-open pipeline anticipated to commence in 2025. Externally, Acadia completed over $370 million in acquisitions year-to-date, with a focus on street retail properties. Management remains confident in achieving a 5% to 6% same-store NOI growth for the year and a 5% plus internal NOI growth in 2026. The company also highlighted strong tenant demand and resilient consumer spending, especially among affluent consumers, despite broader economic uncertainty.

Acadia Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Acadia Realty demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, high gross profit margins, and improved balance sheet leverage. However, concerns arise from the decline in EBITDA margins and negative free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Positive

Acadia Realty's income statement shows a consistent revenue growth with a 6.2% increase in 2024 compared to 2023. Gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 are healthy at 68.8% and 6.0%, respectively, indicating strong operational efficiency. The EBIT margin improved to 18.3% in 2024 from 13.6% in 2023. However, the EBITDA margin declined significantly from 57.4% in 2023 to 18.8% in 2024, suggesting potential concerns in managing operating expenses.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Acadia Realty is strong, with no total debt reported in 2024, a significant improvement from previous years. The equity ratio is robust, with 47.3% of total assets funded by stockholders' equity. Return on equity improved to 1.0% in 2024 from 1.2% in 2023, reflecting better profitability. This strong equity position and low leverage mitigate financial risk.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow statement shows a slight decline in operating cash flow in 2024 compared to 2023. Free cash flow growth is negative due to lower operating cash flow, yet the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient cash management despite reduced free cash flow growth.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
372.73M	359.69M	338.69M	326.29M	292.50M	255.48M
	Gross Profit
226.26M	247.64M	230.22M	224.36M	193.62M	155.38M
	EBIT
66.22M	65.66M	46.07M	26.11M	44.45M	-22.72M
	EBITDA
225.75M	207.08M	194.39M	162.03M	167.89M	115.86M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
19.36M	21.65M	19.87M	-65.25M	23.55M	-66.04M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
17.16M	31.58M	50.77M	17.16M	17.75M	19.23M
	Total Assets
4.30B	4.37B	4.29B	4.30B	4.26B	4.19B
	Total Debt
1.83B	1.67B	1.93B	1.83B	1.85B	1.76B
	Net Debt
1.81B	1.66B	1.92B	1.81B	1.83B	1.74B
	Total Liabilities
2.05B	1.84B	2.16B	2.05B	2.11B	2.14B
	Stockholders Equity
1.69B	2.07B	1.64B	1.69B	1.52B	1.44B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
154.26M	140.45M	155.76M	74.17M	59.40M	96.16M
	Operating Cash Flow
140.35M	140.45M	155.76M	133.21M	104.98M	102.56M
	Investing Cash Flow
-362.86M	-170.66M	-208.54M	-124.17M	-198.54M	-96.21M
	Financing Cash Flow
245.74M	44.62M	45.85M	-4.38M	91.32M	-1.26M

Acadia Realty Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price19.94

Price Trends

50DMA

19.48

Positive

100DMA

20.95

Negative

200DMA

22.19

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.04

Negative

RSI

56.04

Neutral

STOCH

84.96

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.54, above the 50-day MA of 19.48, and below the 200-day MA of 22.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.96 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AKR.

Acadia Realty Risk Analysis

Acadia Realty disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Acadia Realty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Acadia Realty Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FCPT	76 Outperform	$2.75B	25.63	7.62%	5.11%	6.20%	0.28%
GTY	75 Outperform	$1.61B	24.03	7.23%	6.24%	7.80%	4.15%
CURB	75 Outperform	$2.40B	189.80		―	―	―
IVT	72 Outperform	$2.20B	125.07	1.07%	3.24%	7.45%	119.81%
WSR	70 Outperform	$1.25B	20.35	7.33%	4.06%	4.39%	24.45%
AKR	67 Neutral	$2.60B	118.06	0.92%	3.84%	2.62%	84.20%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$2.85B	10.96	0.41%	8438.88%	5.73%	-21.25%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

AKR

Acadia Realty

19.94

3.46

21.00%

GTY

Getty Realty

29.47

4.49

17.97%

WSR

Whitestone REIT

12.56

-0.03

-0.24%

FCPT

Four Corners Property

27.64

4.57

19.81%

IVT

InvenTrust Properties

28.34

4.58

19.28%

CURB

Curbline Properties Corp.

23.12

3.52

17.96%

Acadia Realty Corporate Events

Shareholder Meetings

Acadia Realty Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting on May 8

Neutral

May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Acadia Realty held its annual meeting of shareholders, with a significant participation rate of 94.58% of common shares. During the meeting, several proposals were voted on, including the election of trustees and the ratification of Deloitte & Touche, LLP as the independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. The meeting’s outcomes are expected to influence the company’s governance and financial oversight.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.