Boliden (BDNNY)
OTHER OTC:BDNNY
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Boliden
(OTC:BDNNY)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$119.00
▲(0.24% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/05/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial fundamentals (healthy margins and manageable leverage) tempered by uneven free-cash-flow conversion and cyclicality. Technicals are a notable positive with strong trend and momentum. Valuation is only moderate at ~20.7x earnings with no dividend yield data, while the earnings call adds support via strong results, improving balance sheet, and project/R&R progress despite high CapEx and near-term cash/permit risks.
Positive Factors
Integrated mining and smelting
Vertical integration gives Boliden durable operational advantages: secured internal feed to smelters, capture of midstream refining margins, and flexibility to process third‑party concentrates. This reduces reliance on external treatment terms and supports margin resilience across metal cycles.
Negative Factors
High capital spending program
Sustained high capital intensity materially ties up cash and increases execution risk; large ongoing investments elevate exposure to capex inflation, delayable returns if projects slip, and heighten sensitivity to metal price cycles when funding must continue irrespective of short‑term price moves.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated mining and smelting
Vertical integration gives Boliden durable operational advantages: secured internal feed to smelters, capture of midstream refining margins, and flexibility to process third‑party concentrates. This reduces reliance on external treatment terms and supports margin resilience across metal cycles.
Read all positive factors
Boliden (BDNNY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)433.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth12.59%
EPS Growth-6.08%
CountryUS
Employees7,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.44
Shares Outstanding136,755,500
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume433
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.88
Price to Sales (P/S)1.64
P/FCF Ratio29.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap10.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.51
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)10.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.39B
Boliden Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Boliden AB (publ) engages in the exploring, extracting, and processing of base metals and precious metals in Sweden, other Nordic region, Germany, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, North America, and internationally. The company operates thr...
How the Company Makes Money
Boliden makes money primarily by producing and selling refined metals and related by-products from (1) its mining operations and (2) its smelting and refining operations.
1) Metal sales (core revenue driver)
- Refined metal products: The largest ...
Boliden Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial picture: strong metal price environment (especially precious metals) drove substantial earnings upside (EPS +40%), solid cash generation (SEK 2.7 billion FCF), balance-sheet improvement (net debt/equity ~20%), and a robust R&R update that materially extends mine lives. Challenges include lower grades at some sites, ramp-up shortfalls (Tara, Aitik diorite issues), pressure on zinc smelters, high ongoing CapEx, tax cash catch-up and near-term working capital tie-ups, and an appealed environmental permit at Garpenberg. Overall the positive drivers (market tailwinds, cash flow, R&R gains, strong site performances and project ramp-up progress) materially outweigh the operational and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly and Sequential Earnings
Operating profit excluding process inventory of SEK 4.1 billion in Q4; operating profit including process inventories SEK 5.8 billion (substantial increase vs prior year). Quarterly profit described as 'a little bit more than SEK 4 billion' and one of the top quarterly results in company history.
Negative Updates
Lower Treatment Charges and Currency Headwinds
Weak treatment charges (TCs) for zinc and copper and negative currency development (weaker USD/FX) offset some price gains; company noted TCs and lower USD reduced some price benefits.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly and Sequential Earnings
Operating profit excluding process inventory of SEK 4.1 billion in Q4; operating profit including process inventories SEK 5.8 billion (substantial increase vs prior year). Quarterly profit described as 'a little bit more than SEK 4 billion' and one of the top quarterly results in company history.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated there is no change to the 2026 outlook (same guidance as December) while giving timing and metric detail: Odda commissioning is ongoing with small deliveries and management expects full production by end‑Q1 (management's prior annual EBITDA uplift estimate of EUR 150m is called conservative and ~75% of that could be captured in 2026 if ramp‑up proceeds); Rönnskär tankhouse is set to ramp in H2; Boliden Area tailings and Garpenberg paste project are on track (Garpenberg permit appealed with an appeal decision possibly within ~1 year) and Garpenberg throughput is targeted to reach 4.5 Mt by ~2030 via ~+200 ktpa steps; CapEx remains high and in line with guidance (Q&A referenced SEK 15bn for 2026), exploration spend was just under SEK 1bn in 2025, and sustaining/through‑cycle CapEx was discussed around a SEK 7bn baseline plus additions for new mines; working‑capital seasonality expects a Q1 tie of ~SEK 1.5bn (with Rönnskär ramp possibly tying a further SEK 1–1.5bn) and typical Q4 release; Q4 items included a SEK 300m MAMA positive, free cash flow SEK 2.7bn, net debt/equity down to ~20%, insurance cash of ~SEK 334m received in January, and a proposed dividend of SEK 11/share (~one‑third of net profit); R&R metrics: Aitik reserves to 2048, Boliden Area to 2036, Garpenberg ~25 years, Kevitsa EoL ~2034, Somincor 2036, Tara 2032, Zinkgruvan 2035, Nautanen >50 Mt indicated+inferred and total group resources approaching ~150 Mt.Boliden Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 87.90B | 89.21B | 78.55B | 86.44B | 68.64B |
| Gross Profit | 14.84B | 12.90B | 10.74B | 18.15B | 12.93B |
| EBITDA | 20.82B | 20.58B | 14.57B | 22.07B | 16.70B |
| Net Income | 8.84B | 10.02B | 6.07B | 12.41B | 8.70B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 143.40B | 116.19B | 101.96B | 96.38B | 80.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.24B | 7.05B | 4.98B | 12.16B | 8.25B |
| Total Debt | 23.80B | 16.51B | 14.58B | 11.19B | 6.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 66.86B | 51.18B | 45.54B | 38.05B | 29.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 76.51B | 64.99B | 56.40B | 58.31B | 50.87B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.93B | 2.67B | -3.35B | 6.37B | 7.16B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.44B | 17.66B | 12.18B | 16.40B | 13.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.14B | -15.00B | -15.54B | -10.07B | -6.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 10.75B | -590.00M | -3.83B | -2.42B | -3.96B |
Boliden Technical Analysis
Negative
118.72
Price Trends
134.68
Negative
120.73
Negative
96.92
Positive
Market Momentum
-9.18
Positive
37.87
Neutral
32.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BDNNY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 118.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 119.18, below the 50-day MA of 134.68, and above the 200-day MA of 96.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -9.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BDNNY.
Boliden Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $16.25B | 8.34 | 13.04% | ― | 12.59% | -6.08% | |
74 Outperform | $194.94B | 6.78 | 21.41% | 3.55% | -7.86% | 14.17% | |
69 Neutral | $168.59B | 13.01 | 16.59% | 4.60% | -0.44% | -4.20% | |
68 Neutral | $71.64B | 22.50 | 6.34% | 10.04% | -8.49% | -41.69% | |
67 Neutral | $3.37B | 34.48 | 8.14% | 0.43% | 3.93% | -73.94% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
48 Neutral | $9.67B | -100.09 | -5.04% | ― | 26.44% | -95.87% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
BDNNY
Boliden
114.92
61.62
115.63%
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MTRN
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VALE
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16.74
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MP
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54.44
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128.64%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.