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Boliden (BDNNY)
OTHER OTC:BDNNY
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Boliden
(OTC:BDNNY)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$179.00
▲(50.77% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/05/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial fundamentals (healthy margins and manageable leverage) tempered by uneven free-cash-flow conversion and cyclicality. Technicals are a notable positive with strong trend and momentum. Valuation is only moderate at ~20.7x earnings with no dividend yield data, while the earnings call adds support via strong results, improving balance sheet, and project/R&R progress despite high CapEx and near-term cash/permit risks.
Positive Factors
Integrated mining-to-smelting model
Boliden’s integrated model—owning both extraction and smelting/refining—provides durable advantages: internal feed security, capture of treatment/refining margin, and operational optionality to route concentrates internally or to third parties. This structural integration supports steadier long-term margins and supply reliability across cycles.
Extended reserves & resources
Material R&R improvements that extend mine lives increase production visibility and lower execution risk for future output. Longer-lived assets support staged capital allocation, reduce near-term exploration reliance and underpin multi-year revenue potential and returns from current project investments and ramp-ups.
Improved balance sheet and cash generation
Net-debt/equity near ~20% and recent positive free cash flow quarters strengthen financing headroom for projects and dividends. A healthier leverage position improves resilience to commodity cycles, facilitates funding of high-priority CapEx and reduces refinancing and credit-cost risks over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Commodity-price & input-cost cyclicality
Boliden’s earnings remain materially exposed to commodity-price swings and input cost volatility (notably energy). This cyclical sensitivity means margins and cash conversion can vary significantly across cycles, making sustained earnings growth dependent on favorable metal markets or consistent cost control.
High and ongoing capital intensity
A multi‑billion SEK CapEx program to support new mines and ramp-ups raises structural cash needs. High reinvestment reduces free-cash-flow available for discretionary returns and increases sensitivity to project timing, cost inflation and working-capital swings over the medium term.
Regulatory/permit risk at Garpenberg
An appealed environmental permit introduces multi-quarter uncertainty to throughput and expansion timing at a key asset. Delays or adverse outcomes could push back planned capacity increases, defer production growth and raise project execution and legal-compliance costs, affecting medium-term volume visibility.
Boliden (BDNNY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)433.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.9
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth12.59%
EPS Growth-6.08%
CountryUS
Employees7,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.44
Shares Outstanding136,755,500
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume433
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.88
Price to Sales (P/S)1.64
P/FCF Ratio29.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.54
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)11.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.95B
Boliden Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBoliden AB (publ) engages in the exploring, extracting, and processing of base metals and precious metals in Sweden, other Nordic region, Germany, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, North America, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Business Area Mines and Business Area Smelters. It explores for copper, zinc, nickel, lead, gold, silver, cobalt, tellurium, platinum, and palladium deposits. The company operates the Aitik, the Boliden Area, and Garpenberg mines in Sweden; the Tara mine in Ireland; and the Kevitsa mines in Finland. Its products include zinc and lead ingot, copper cathode, gold bar, and silver granule, and other products, such as sulphuric acid; copper, lead, nickel, and zinc concentrates; and by-products, including copper sulphate, zinc clinker, iron sand, copper telluride, selenium, nickel matte, and crude nickel sulphate, as well as palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium, ruthenium, and osmium concentrates. The company sells its metals primarily to industrial customers, as well as construction, electronics, and automotive industries; and paper manufacturers. Boliden AB (publ) was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
How the Company Makes MoneyBoliden generates revenue primarily through the sale of its metal products, including copper, zinc, lead, gold, and silver. The company has a diversified revenue model that includes both mining and smelting operations. In the mining segment, Boliden earns money by extracting and selling ore concentrates, while in the smelting segment, it produces refined metals and by-products from the processing of these concentrates. Key revenue streams include contracts with large industrial customers, spot market sales, and long-term supply agreements. Additionally, Boliden benefits from partnerships with other mining companies and strategic alliances that enhance its operational efficiency and market reach. The company is also influenced by global metal prices, which can significantly impact its overall earnings.
Boliden Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial picture: strong metal price environment (especially precious metals) drove substantial earnings upside (EPS +40%), solid cash generation (SEK 2.7 billion FCF), balance-sheet improvement (net debt/equity ~20%), and a robust R&R update that materially extends mine lives. Challenges include lower grades at some sites, ramp-up shortfalls (Tara, Aitik diorite issues), pressure on zinc smelters, high ongoing CapEx, tax cash catch-up and near-term working capital tie-ups, and an appealed environmental permit at Garpenberg. Overall the positive drivers (market tailwinds, cash flow, R&R gains, strong site performances and project ramp-up progress) materially outweigh the operational and timing headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly and Sequential Earnings
Operating profit excluding process inventory of SEK 4.1 billion in Q4; operating profit including process inventories SEK 5.8 billion (substantial increase vs prior year). Quarterly profit described as 'a little bit more than SEK 4 billion' and one of the top quarterly results in company history.
Earnings Per Share Growth
Earnings per share of SEK 15.31 in Q4, a 40% increase compared to last year.
Healthy Cash Generation
Free cash flow of SEK 2.7 billion in the quarter despite record-level investments; third consecutive quarter of working capital release.
Balance Sheet Strengthening
Net debt-to-equity reduced to around 20%, providing robust financing headroom for projects and dividends.
Dividend Alignment with Policy
Board recommended dividend of SEK 11 per share, in line with payout policy of one-third of net profit.
Precious Metal Price Tailwind
Stronger metal prices—notably silver and gold—drove a material positive impact (metal prices alone contributed ~SEK 2.5 billion vs prior year before offsets), benefiting both mines and smelters.
Operational Highlights at Site Level
Aitik: continued strong mine production and improving grades; Garpenberg: second-best quarter for throughput and strong annual EBIT of SEK 4.4 billion; Boliden Area delivered ~SEK 2 billion EBIT; Harjavalta delivered record copper cathode production and >SEK 1.5 billion annual result; Ronnskar produced SEK 1 billion annual result despite tankhouse rebuild.
Odda Commissioning Progress
Odda leach commissioning progressing well with initial deliveries made; company expects ramp-up toward full production during the current quarter and believes prior EUR 150 million annual uplift estimate is conservative given higher silver prices.
Ronnskar One-off Positive Cash Effect
Recognized a one-off positive recovery/adjustment of approximately SEK 410 million linked to handling metals after the Ronnskar fire; management confirmed this has been converted to cash by end-Q4.
Strong R&R (Reserves & Resources) Update
Significant R&R improvements: Boliden Area reserves extended from 2033 to 2036 (+3 years); Garpenberg reserves/resources very strong (approaching ~25 years life of mine); Nautanen and Aitik resources increased (Nautanen + Aitik >50 million tonnes indicated+inferred); Garpenberg resources increased by ~25–30 million tonnes; total resources approaching ~150 million tonnes — management calls the R&R update 'very strong'.
Safety and ESG Progress
Lost-time injury frequency ended the year at 3.6 (best year in company history); greenhouse gas emissions trending in the right direction; sick leave improving toward pre-COVID levels.
Negative Updates
Lower Treatment Charges and Currency Headwinds
Weak treatment charges (TCs) for zinc and copper and negative currency development (weaker USD/FX) offset some price gains; company noted TCs and lower USD reduced some price benefits.
Grade and Production Shortfalls in Some Mines
Apart from Aitik, grades were generally lower than expected in several mines (Boliden Area, parts of Garpenberg, Kevitsa). Management characterized these as timing issues but they modestly reduced volumes and profits.
Tara and Aitik Production vs Guidance
Tara milled slightly above 1.4 million tonnes vs guidance of 1.6 million (ramp-up and contractor delays cited); Aitik fell slightly short of the 40 million tonne guidance for the year (reached just above 39 million) due to diorite issues constraining output.
Zinc Smelter Challenges
Zinc smelters under pressure: Kokkola results down; Odda posted negative result (impacted by prices and expansion-related production effects); inability to recover silver at Odda underlines importance of ongoing project.
High CapEx and Project-related Spending
Record-level investments and a high CapEx program (management noted CapEx in line with guidance and referenced SEK 15 billion guidance for 2026) increase near-term cash deployment; management flagged potential CapEx inflation risk and more visibility to be provided at the capital markets update.
Tax Cash Catch-Up Needed
Low cash tax paid in the quarter vs P&L accruals; management expects a meaningful tax cash catch-up during the year (estimated to be material and to be paid during 2026).
Working Capital and Ramp-up Tie-ups
Typical Q1 seasonality expected to tie ~SEK 1.5 billion in working capital; additional working capital estimated for Odda (small) and Ronnskar ramp-up roughly SEK 1.0–1.5 billion depending on price levels.
Regulatory/Permit Risk at Garpenberg
Garpenberg environmental permit has been appealed; appeals process can delay timelines (management noted appeals verdict timeline typically up to ~1 year).
Weather-related Operational Risk in Somincor
Heavy rains in Portugal in January impacted water management and Somincor mill operations; management currently expects to maintain full-year guidance but Q1 impact uncertain and will require catch-up.
Company Guidance
Management reiterated there is no change to the 2026 outlook (same guidance as December) while giving timing and metric detail: Odda commissioning is ongoing with small deliveries and management expects full production by end‑Q1 (management's prior annual EBITDA uplift estimate of EUR 150m is called conservative and ~75% of that could be captured in 2026 if ramp‑up proceeds); Rönnskär tankhouse is set to ramp in H2; Boliden Area tailings and Garpenberg paste project are on track (Garpenberg permit appealed with an appeal decision possibly within ~1 year) and Garpenberg throughput is targeted to reach 4.5 Mt by ~2030 via ~+200 ktpa steps; CapEx remains high and in line with guidance (Q&A referenced SEK 15bn for 2026), exploration spend was just under SEK 1bn in 2025, and sustaining/through‑cycle CapEx was discussed around a SEK 7bn baseline plus additions for new mines; working‑capital seasonality expects a Q1 tie of ~SEK 1.5bn (with Rönnskär ramp possibly tying a further SEK 1–1.5bn) and typical Q4 release; Q4 items included a SEK 300m MAMA positive, free cash flow SEK 2.7bn, net debt/equity down to ~20%, insurance cash of ~SEK 334m received in January, and a proposed dividend of SEK 11/share (~one‑third of net profit); R&R metrics: Aitik reserves to 2048, Boliden Area to 2036, Garpenberg ~25 years, Kevitsa EoL ~2034, Somincor 2036, Tara 2032, Zinkgruvan 2035, Nautanen >50 Mt indicated+inferred and total group resources approaching ~150 Mt.Boliden Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and moderate leverage support a solid financial profile, but performance is cyclical (revenue down in 2025 vs 2024 and below 2022 peak) and free cash flow is uneven with a sharp FCF drop in 2025, which reduces quality of earnings.Income Statement
Profitability is solid for the group, with recent net margins around ~10% (2025) and EBIT/EBITDA margins remaining healthy. The company also showed meaningful margin expansion from 2023 to 2025, but growth has turned mixed: revenue declined in 2025 after a strong 2024 rebound, and profitability remains below the 2022 peak—suggesting more cyclical sensitivity than a steady compounding profile.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable, with debt-to-equity staying moderate (~0.19–0.31) despite debt rising in 2024–2025. Equity and assets have grown over time, and returns on equity remain respectable (~11–15% in 2024–2025), though down from the 2022 high—indicating a good balance sheet that is somewhat less efficient than at the cycle peak.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash generation is consistently positive, but cash conversion is the main weak spot: free cash flow has been volatile (negative in 2023, positive but lower in 2024–2025), and free cash flow relative to net income is modest in 2024–2025. Additionally, free cash flow fell sharply in 2025, pointing to either heavier reinvestment needs and/or working-capital swings that can pressure shareholder returns in weaker commodity periods.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 87.90B | 89.21B | 78.55B | 86.44B | 68.64B |
| Gross Profit | 14.84B | 12.90B | 10.74B | 18.15B | 12.93B |
| EBITDA | 20.82B | 20.58B | 14.57B | 22.07B | 16.70B |
| Net Income | 8.84B | 10.02B | 6.07B | 12.41B | 8.70B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 143.40B | 116.19B | 101.96B | 96.38B | 80.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.24B | 7.05B | 4.98B | 12.16B | 8.25B |
| Total Debt | 23.80B | 16.51B | 14.58B | 11.19B | 6.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 66.86B | 51.18B | 45.54B | 38.05B | 29.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 76.51B | 64.99B | 56.40B | 58.31B | 50.87B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.93B | 2.67B | -3.35B | 6.37B | 7.16B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.44B | 17.66B | 12.18B | 16.40B | 13.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.14B | -15.00B | -15.54B | -10.07B | -6.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 10.75B | -590.00M | -3.83B | -2.42B | -3.96B |
Boliden Technical Analysis
Positive
118.72
Price Trends
131.33
Positive
111.34
Positive
89.04
Positive
Market Momentum
6.83
Negative
65.64
Neutral
89.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BDNNY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 118.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 146.38, below the 50-day MA of 131.33, and above the 200-day MA of 89.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BDNNY.
Boliden Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $21.42B | 21.94 | 11.34% | ― | 12.59% | -6.08% | |
74 Outperform | $213.42B | 20.19 | 21.38% | 3.55% | -7.86% | 14.17% | |
69 Neutral | $167.87B | 16.15 | 17.00% | 4.60% | -0.44% | -4.20% | |
68 Neutral | $72.76B | 29.66 | 6.88% | 10.04% | -8.49% | -41.69% | |
67 Neutral | $3.45B | 45.57 | 8.26% | 0.43% | 3.93% | -73.94% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | $11.32B | -123.01 | -4.98% | ― | 26.44% | -95.87% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
BDNNY
Boliden
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79.10
110.60%
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VALE
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MP
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182.87%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.