Boise Cascade (BCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.76B
• Dividend Yield: 1.17%
• Average Volume (3M): 419.31K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: -4.25%
• EPS Growth: -50.60%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,670
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Construction Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 35,722,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 563,331
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 419,314
• PEG Ratio: -0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.31
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 213.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.44
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.84
• 1Y Price Target: $95.75
• Price Target Upside: 23.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.05
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.56B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $94.00 ▲(21.59% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial strength (very low leverage) but noticeably weaker profitability and cash conversion versus prior years. Technicals are supportive with the price above key moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation (P/E ~22.8 with ~1% yield) and a cautious near-term earnings outlook temper the overall rating.

Positive Factors

Very low leverage / strong balance sheet

Extremely low debt (debt-to-equity ~0.03) and sizable equity provide durable financial flexibility: supports capex, M&A, buybacks and dividends, and shields the company in cyclical downturns, reducing refinancing and covenant risk over the coming 2–6 months.

Distribution footprint expansion

New distribution center and the Holden Humphrey acquisition broaden geographic reach and product assortment, strengthening contractor and retail access. That structural network build increases market share potential and recurring revenue durability across construction cycles.

Sustained investment in production capacity

Meaningful, ongoing capital investment modernizes manufacturing and expands engineered wood capacity, improving unit economics and supply reliability. These productive capex commitments support long-term margin recovery and competitive positioning over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Sharp margin compression

Margins have contracted materially, reflecting pricing pressure and cost headwinds. Persistently compressed net and operating margins limit earnings resilience and free cash generation, making profit recovery dependent on sustained price improvements or structural cost reductions.

Weakened cash conversion and lower FCF

Declining cash conversion and modest FCF relative to profits reduce internal funding for growth and returns. If cash conversion remains impaired, the company’s ability to fund capex, repurchases and dividends without higher leverage will be constrained over the next several quarters.

Regulatory/legal risk (Lacey Act & DOJ review)

An ongoing DOJ review and related accrual create regulatory and reputational uncertainty. Even modest cash charges can presage further compliance costs, operational scrutiny or restrictions that could impede sourcing flexibility and margins over a multi-quarter horizon.

Boise Cascade Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Boise Cascade Company manufactures wood products and distributes building materials in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments, Wood Products and Building Materials Distribution. The Wood Products segment manufactures laminated veneer lumber and laminated beams used in headers and beams; I-joists for residential and commercial flooring and roofing systems, and other structural applications; structural, appearance, and industrial plywood panels; and ponderosa pine lumber products. This segment's products are used in new residential construction, residential repair-and-remodeling markets, light commercial construction, and industrial applications. It sells its products to wholesalers, home improvement centers, retail lumberyards, and industrial converters. The Building Materials Distribution segment distributes a line of building materials, including oriented strand boards, plywood, and lumber; general line items, such as siding, composite decking, doors, metal products, insulation, and roofing; and engineered wood products. This segment sells its products to dealers, home improvement centers, and specialty distributors. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.

How the Company Makes Money

Boise Cascade generates revenue primarily through the sale of its wood products and building materials. The Wood Products segment contributes significantly by manufacturing and selling engineered wood products, such as plywood and laminated veneer lumber, which are essential for construction projects. The Building Materials Distribution segment further enhances revenue through the distribution of a diverse array of building materials, including roofing, insulation, and siding, to contractors and retailers. Key revenue streams include direct sales to contractors and homebuilders, as well as partnerships with retail home improvement stores. Additionally, fluctuations in housing starts and construction activity, along with trends in the residential and commercial building sectors, significantly influence the company's earnings.

Boise Cascade Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: a very strong, low-leverage balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.03) supports resilience, but profitability and cash generation have cooled materially. TTM revenue is slightly down (-1.65%) and net margin has compressed to ~2.25%, while free cash flow ($93M TTM) and cash conversion have weakened versus prior years.

Income Statement

BCC’s profitability has cooled meaningfully versus prior years. Revenue has been essentially flat-to-down (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth: -1.65%), while margins compressed sharply: net margin fell from 10.23% (2022) and 5.60% (2024) to 2.25% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with a similar step-down in gross and operating margins. The company remains profitable, but the trajectory shows a cyclical downshift from the strong 2021–2022 peak.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a clear strength. Leverage is very low in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with debt at roughly 3% of equity (debt-to-equity: 0.03), improving substantially from ~0.24–0.64 in 2020–2024. Equity is sizable (~$2.07B TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), providing flexibility and downside protection. Returns on equity have normalized (9.0% TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) vs. higher levels in 2021–2023), reflecting weaker earnings rather than balance sheet strain.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains positive but has weakened alongside earnings. Operating cash flow is $254M and free cash flow is $93M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), down from stronger conversion in 2021–2023. Cash flow quality is a watch item: free cash flow is about 36% of net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and operating cash flow is also modest relative to profits versus prior years. The sharp TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow growth rate likely reflects an easier comparison rather than a full return to peak cash generation.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.40B	6.72B	6.84B	8.39B	7.93B
Gross Profit	895.67M	1.33B	1.43B	1.91B	1.63B
EBITDA	347.97M	673.23M	805.96M	1.28B	1.06B
Net Income	132.84M	376.35M	483.66M	857.66M	712.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.24B	3.37B	3.46B	3.24B	2.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	477.21M	713.26M	949.57M	998.34M	748.91M
Total Debt	522.21M	516.22M	529.79M	523.08M	531.79M
Total Liabilities	1.17B	1.22B	1.26B	1.18B	1.22B
Stockholders Equity	2.07B	2.15B	2.20B	2.06B	1.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	12.72M	208.75M	472.02M	927.10M	560.47M
Operating Cash Flow	254.15M	438.32M	687.46M	1.04B	666.98M
Investing Cash Flow	-263.26M	-237.82M	-375.55M	-625.46M	-105.59M
Financing Cash Flow	-226.93M	-436.81M	-360.68M	-166.33M	-217.87M

Boise Cascade Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 77.31
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 77.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.53, below the 50-day MA of 81.80, and below the 200-day MA of 80.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BCC.

Boise Cascade Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VMC	75 Outperform	$37.51B	34.81	12.99%	0.67%	6.54%	32.48%
MLM	72 Outperform	$38.17B	33.02	10.65%	0.51%	1.99%	-41.08%
TGLS	69 Neutral	$1.97B	14.72	23.74%	1.12%	15.70%	19.92%
BCC	66 Neutral	$2.76B	20.40	6.29%	1.17%	-4.25%	-50.60%
CPAC	64 Neutral	$923.39M	20.64	16.04%	5.46%	9.24%	24.01%
LOMA	63 Neutral	$1.19B	-35.03	5.06%	―	-33.99%	-61.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Boise Cascade Corporate Events

Boise Cascade Board Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On February 6, 2026, Boise Cascade announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.22 per share for common stockholders, payable on March 18, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 23, 2026. The announcement underscores the company’s continued practice of returning capital to shareholders while signaling confidence in its financial position, though the board emphasized that future dividend decisions will remain subject to operational performance, financial condition, legal capital requirements, and other constraints such as credit facility and senior notes covenants, which are key considerations for investors and creditors tracking the company’s capital-allocation discipline.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCC) stock is a Hold with a $86.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boise Cascade stock, see the BCC Stock Forecast page.

Boise Cascade Announces CEO Retirement and Successor

Boise Cascade announced the retirement of its CEO, Nate Jorgensen, effective March 2, 2026, with Jeff Strom set to succeed him as CEO on March 3, 2026. The transition is part of the company’s long-term succession planning, aiming to maintain stability and momentum in its operations, with Strom bringing over 34 years of industry experience to the role.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCC) stock is a Buy with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boise Cascade stock, see the BCC Stock Forecast page.