Vulcan Materials (VMC) AI Stock Analysis

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Vulcan Materials

(NYSE:VMC)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:75Outperform

Price Target:

$299.00

▲(12.65% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by improving profitability, strong operating/free cash flow, and better leverage, reinforced by constructive 2026 guidance and backlog commentary. Technicals support the view with a clear uptrend, but the overall rating is capped by a high P/E and low dividend yield, plus macro/mix risks highlighted on the call (notably residential weakness and pricing mix noise).

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Consistently strong operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow provide durable internal funding for maintenance and growth CapEx, dividends, and buybacks while enabling continued deleveraging. Even with some variability, multi-year cash generation underpins financial flexibility and resilience.

Margin expansion & profitability

Material margin expansion over recent years reflects pricing power, cost discipline, and operational leverage in aggregates. Higher sustainable margins improve cash conversion, provide buffer versus cyclical volume swings, and support reinvestment and credit metrics over the medium term.

Backlog & data-center pipeline

A higher share of large, multi-year project bookings and a concentrated data‑center pipeline near Vulcan sites creates multi-year volume visibility and above-average ASP opportunities. This structural backlog supports utilization, pricing discipline, and smoother revenue recognition versus short-cycle demand.

Negative Factors

Residential exposure / macro sensitivity

Reliance on single-family construction for downstream volumes leaves parts of the business sensitive to interest rates and housing affordability. Prolonged weakness in residential activity can constrain ready‑mix and concrete demand and limit upside in certain markets for multiple quarters.

Mix-driven ASP pressure

A structural shift toward lower‑priced base/fill and acquisition-related geographic/product mix can depress reported ASPs and margin metrics even as mix‑adjusted prices rise. If large project compositions persist, revenue per ton and reported profitability may remain pressured versus underlying pricing trends.

High ongoing CapEx and financing needs

Substantial recurring CapEx and non-trivial interest expense require sustained strong free cash flow and constrain optional uses of cash. Even with improving leverage, ongoing heavy capital intensity limits near‑term flexibility for opportunistic M&A or accelerated capital returns if cash generation weakens.

Vulcan Materials (VMC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$34.66B

Dividend Yield0.67%

Average Volume (3M)1.41M

Price to Earnings (P/E)34.8

Beta (1Y)0.78

Revenue Growth6.54%

EPS Growth32.48%

CountryUS

Employees11,971

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength58

IndustryConstruction Materials

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.70

Shares Outstanding130,580,380

10 Day Avg. Volume1,609,821

30 Day Avg. Volume1,405,748

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.90

Price to Book (P/B)4.41

Price to Sales (P/S)4.74

P/FCF Ratio33.15

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16

Enterprise Value/Revenue5.09

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.64

Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.72

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$330.08

Price Target Upside24.36% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering13

EPS Forecast (FY)9.34

Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.07B

Vulcan Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVulcan Materials Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies construction aggregates primarily in the United States. It operates through four segments: Aggregates, Asphalt, Concrete, and Calcium. The Aggregates segment provides crushed stones, sand and gravel, sand, and other aggregates; and related products and services that are applied in construction and maintenance of highways, streets, and other public works, as well as in the construction of housing and commercial, industrial, and other nonresidential facilities. The Asphalt Mix segment offers asphalt mix in Alabama, Arizona, California, New Mexico, Tennessee, and Texas, as well as engages in the asphalt construction paving activity in Alabama, Tennessee, and Texas. The Concrete segment provides ready-mixed concrete in California, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas and Virginia, and Washington D.C. The Calcium segment mines, produces, and sells calcium products for the animal feed, plastics, and water treatment industries. The company was formerly known as Virginia Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to Vulcan Materials Company. Vulcan Materials Company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.

How the Company Makes MoneyVulcan makes money primarily by selling construction aggregates (crushed stone, sand, and gravel), which are its largest revenue stream. Revenue is generated by (1) extracting and processing rock and other raw materials at quarries/pits, then selling aggregates by volume/tonnage to customers, and (2) distributing aggregates through rail- and water-served terminals and local trucking networks; delivered product sales typically include transportation charges embedded in pricing, while some sales are ex-plant/pickup. A smaller but meaningful portion of revenue comes from its downstream and adjacent materials businesses: asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete (in certain markets), where Vulcan sells manufactured construction materials that incorporate aggregates and are typically priced per ton (asphalt) or per cubic yard (ready-mix), with demand tied to paving, infrastructure, and building activity. Vulcan’s earnings are influenced by factors such as local construction and public infrastructure spending, pricing discipline in aggregates-heavy markets, product mix (aggregates vs. downstream), freight and fuel costs (and the company’s ability to pass them through), plant/terminal utilization, and the geographic footprint of its reserves and distribution network. Significant partnerships: null.

Vulcan Materials Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Aggregates Shipped

Aggregates Shipped
Measures the volume of aggregates delivered, indicating demand for construction materials and the company’s capacity to meet market needs.

Chart InsightsVulcan Materials' aggregate shipments have faced volatility, notably impacted by extreme weather, which reduced volumes by up to 3 million tons in key markets. Despite this, the company achieved a 9% increase in adjusted EBITDA, driven by significant price improvements and expanded margins. Public infrastructure projects, bolstered by legislative funding, present a promising growth avenue, offsetting weaknesses in residential construction. This strategic focus on infrastructure could stabilize shipments and enhance profitability moving forward, even as residential markets remain challenging.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Vulcan Materials Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call conveyed strong financial and operational momentum — above-target aggregate cash gross profit per ton ($11.33), robust adjusted EBITDA growth (+13%), margin expansion, meaningful cash generation (+29% operating cash flow) and balance-sheet deleveraging (net debt/EBITDA 1.8x). Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (shipments +1–3%, ASP +4–6%, adjusted EBITDA $2.4–$2.6B) and highlighted a healthy backlog and a large data-center pipeline. Near-term headwinds include weaker single-family housing demand, Q4 timing/weather-related costs and mix-related price pressure from base/fill shipments and prior-year hurricane relief comps. Overall, positives (strong profitability, cash flow, leverage improvement, disciplined cost control and attractive backlog) materially outweigh the identified transitory and macro-dependent challenges.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion

Adjusted EBITDA of $2,300,000,000, a 13% increase versus prior year; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 160 basis points to 29.3%.

Aggregate Cash Gross Profit Per Ton — Target Achieved

Aggregate cash gross profit per ton reached $11.33 (within the prior target of $11–$12), improving 7% for the year and up ~55% from $7.33 four-plus years ago.

Strong Cash Generation and Capital Returns

Operating cash flow exceeded $1,800,000,000 (up 29% year-over-year); free cash flow increased by over 40% after $678,000,000 of reinvestment; returned $260,000,000 in dividends and $438,000,000 in share repurchases.

Deleveraging and Liquidity Actions

Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.8x at year-end; issued $2,000,000,000 of long-term notes in Q4, redeemed $400,000,000 of 2025 notes in March and repaid $550,000,000 of commercial paper to reduce interest expense.

Shipment and Pricing Performance

Aggregate shipments ~227 million tons, up 3% for the full year (Q4 shipments +2%); aggregates mix-adjusted selling price increased 6% for the year and 5% in Q4.

Cost Control and SG&A Discipline

Aggregates units cash cost of sales increased less than 2% for the full year; SG&A was $564,000,000 and declined 10 basis points as a percentage of revenue to 7.1%.

Operational Momentum and Backlog Composition

Bookings/backlog strengthened (large projects 25k+ tons now ~45% of bookings vs historical ~30%); data center pipeline a major catalyst (150,000,000 sq ft under construction and ~450,000,000 sq ft announced, with >70% within 30 miles of a Vulcan facility); trailing 12-month highway starts in Vulcan markets growing faster than U.S. average.

Financial & Operational Guidance for 2026

2026 guidance: aggregate shipments +1–3%, freight-adjusted ASP +4–6%, aggregates units cash cost of sales up low single-digits, another year of at least high single-digit growth in aggregates cash gross profit per ton, and adjusted EBITDA guided to $2,400,000,000–$2,600,000,000; CapEx planned at $750,000,000–$800,000,000.

Negative Updates

Single-Family Residential Weakness

Single-family residential activity was weaker than anticipated, putting full-year volume and pricing at the lower end of initial expectations; management expects residential to remain limited in 2026 absent improvements in interest rates/affordability, creating risk for concrete/ready-mix recovery.

Fourth-Quarter Timing, Weather and Cost Impacts

Q4 results were negatively affected by early winter in some seasonal markets and unusually wet conditions in Southern California, plus timing-related incremental repair and insurance costs; these timing/weather issues contributed to essentially flat Q4 EBITDA year-over-year.

Prior-Year Hurricane Relief Comparison Creating Tough Comps

East Tennessee and North Carolina shipments were nearly 30% lower versus the prior-year fourth quarter, which benefited from elevated hurricane-relief shipments, creating a geographic headwind to reported Q4 performance.

Mix-Related Pricing Headwinds from Base/Fill and M&A

Reported pricing lagged mix-adjusted pricing by ~300 basis points in Q4 due to (1) geographic mix from prior-year high-ASP shipments, (2) acquisition-related effects, and (3) product mix skewed toward lower-priced base/fill on large projects (base selling ~$8–$10/ton below clean stone), creating near-term pressure on reported ASPs.

One-Time/Lumpy Items and Plant Rebuild Timing

Incremental costs tied to timing of repairs, insurance, and large plant rebuild projects (including ~$50,000,000 of spend shifted into 2026) were lumpy and impacted quarter-to-quarter comparability; some projects/costs could affect near-term cadence.

Divestiture and Downstream Transition

Pending ready-mix divestiture excluded from 2026 guidance and a pruned ready-mix footprint shifts downstream earnings mix (asphalt expected to contribute ~85% of downstream cash gross profit), introducing transitional modeling considerations.

Dependence on Macro Variables for Upside

Forward growth assumptions rely in part on improvements in interest rates and housing affordability; if those macro drivers do not improve, residential-related volume upside and midyear pricing opportunities (particularly in concrete) could be constrained.

Company Guidance

For 2026 Vulcan guided to modest volume growth and healthy pricing: aggregate shipments are expected to rise 1–3%, freight‑adjusted average selling prices to increase 4–6%, and aggregates units cash cost of sales to increase low single‑digits, driving at least a high‑single‑digit gain in aggregates cash gross profit per ton and supporting adjusted EBITDA of $2.4–$2.6 billion (with further expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin). Management also expects downstream cash gross profit of roughly $290 million (about 85% from asphalt), SG&A of $580–$590 million, DD&A&A of ~ $700 million, interest expense of ~ $225 million, an effective tax rate of 22–23%, and operating/maintenance plus internal growth CapEx of $750–$800 million (including ~ $50 million shifted from 2025).

Vulcan Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and improving profitability (net margin up to ~13.6% in 2025; EBITDA margin ~32.3%) and solid cash generation (operating cash flow ~$1.81B; free cash flow ~$1.14B). Balance sheet is improving with lower leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.57 in 2025), though revenue has been uneven and absolute debt remains meaningful.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Profitability strengthened meaningfully over the last several years, with net margin rising from ~7.9% (2022) to ~13.6% (2025) and EBITDA margin expanding to ~32.3% (2025). Revenue has grown strongly over the multi-year period, though the path has been uneven (a decline in 2024 followed by a sharp rebound in 2025). Overall, the earnings profile looks resilient with improving margins, but the volatility in year-to-year growth tempers the score.

Balance Sheet

Positive

Leverage appears manageable and improving recently, with debt-to-equity moving down from ~0.72 (2024) to ~0.57 (2025). Equity has grown steadily, supporting a solid capital base, and returns on equity are healthy in the low-to-mid teens (~12.7% in 2025). The main watch-out is that total debt remains sizable in absolute terms, so the story relies on maintaining current profitability and cash generation.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Cash generation is strong: operating cash flow increased to ~$1.81B (2025) and comfortably covered net income (about 1.9x in 2025). Free cash flow also improved to ~$1.14B (2025) and has been positive across the period, although conversion of earnings into free cash flow is not consistently high (free cash flow running at ~43%–66% of net income over time, ~63% in 2025). Overall cash flow strength is a key support, with some variability in free cash flow efficiency.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.93B	7.42B	7.78B	7.32B	5.55B
Gross Profit	2.17B	2.00B	1.95B	1.56B	1.37B
EBITDA	2.57B	1.98B	2.04B	1.53B	1.47B
Net Income	1.08B	911.90M	933.20M	575.60M	670.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.70B	17.10B	14.55B	14.23B	13.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	183.30M	559.70M	931.10M	161.40M	235.00M
Total Debt	5.41B	5.83B	4.39B	4.52B	4.52B
Total Liabilities	8.15B	8.96B	7.04B	7.28B	7.11B
Stockholders Equity	8.53B	8.12B	7.48B	6.93B	6.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.14B	806.10M	664.20M	535.60M	560.60M
Operating Cash Flow	1.81B	1.41B	1.54B	1.15B	1.01B
Investing Cash Flow	-529.20M	-2.81B	-163.50M	-1.05B	-1.87B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.70B	1.06B	-585.60M	-175.20M	-94.30M

Vulcan Materials Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price265.42

Price Trends

50DMA

300.70

Negative

100DMA

295.59

Negative

200DMA

287.84

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-10.78

Positive

RSI

28.93

Positive

STOCH

13.29

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VMC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 265.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 294.42, below the 50-day MA of 300.70, and below the 200-day MA of 287.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -10.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.93 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VMC.

Vulcan Materials Risk Analysis

Vulcan Materials disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vulcan Materials reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vulcan Materials Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VMC	75 Outperform	$34.66B	34.81	12.79%	0.67%	6.54%	32.48%
MLM	72 Outperform	$35.21B	33.02	11.90%	0.51%	1.99%	-41.08%
EXP	70 Outperform	$5.86B	16.19	28.78%	0.47%	1.50%	-4.44%
CRH	70 Outperform	£66.70B	26.46	15.21%	1.17%	4.28%	0.39%
CX	69 Neutral	$15.81B	1.73	10.45%	0.74%	-6.34%	210.97%
KNF	65 Neutral	$4.45B	25.39	9.71%	―	5.52%	-25.56%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

VMC

Vulcan Materials

265.42

30.59

13.02%

Cemex SAB

10.41

4.40

73.18%

EXP

Eagle Materials

186.47

-27.91

-13.02%

MLM

Martin Marietta Materials

583.75

98.17

20.22%

CRH

CRH plc

99.82

5.03

5.31%

KNF

Knife River Corporation

78.47

-13.44

-14.62%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026