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Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
NYSE:MLM

Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) AI Stock Analysis

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MLM

Martin Marietta Materials

(NYSE:MLM)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$759.00
▲(8.92% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/25/26
MLM’s score is driven primarily by strong cash generation, solid margins, and manageable/improving leverage, reinforced by a positive earnings outlook and capex pullback that should support free cash flow. The main offsets are a premium valuation (high P/E with a low dividend yield) and recent top-line softness/earnings normalization.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation & FCF
Martin Marietta's operating cash flow (~$1.8B) and near‑$1.0B free cash flow in 2025 demonstrate durable cash conversion that supports reinvestment, M&A, buybacks and debt reduction. Sustained FCF capacity underpins strategic optionality and resilience through construction cycles.
Improving leverage & liquidity
Leverage has meaningfully improved from prior years (D/E ~0.53) and net leverage (~2.3x) with ~$1.2B liquidity provides financial flexibility. A stronger balance sheet reduces refinancing and covenant risk, enabling disciplined capital allocation and support for targeted M&A over the medium term.
Aggregates-focused strategic asset exchange
The Quikrete asset exchange permanently shifts mix toward higher‑margin aggregates, expanding scale in targeted markets and adding $450M cash. This structural move tightens focus on the company's core, improving margin durability and creating platform scale for further organic and inorganic growth.
Negative Factors
Top-line softness & earnings normalization
Recent revenue declines and an earnings step‑down indicate that prior outsized profitability is normalizing. Persistent top‑line headwinds can limit sustained margin expansion and reduce return on capital, making future earnings more cyclical and dependent on recovery in construction end markets.
Downstream / building materials weakness
Weakness in ready‑mix, cement and other downstream operations reduces the company's revenue diversification and can pressure consolidated margins. Continued softness in private residential and nonresidential construction can depress volumes and pricing for these lower‑margin, more cyclical businesses over coming quarters.
Mix & acquisition ASP headwinds
While strategically beneficial, recent acquisitions and project‑driven base stone demand can depress blended ASPs and create near‑term optical margin headwinds. If lower‑priced tons persist before value‑added finishing, aggregate gross profit per ton and consolidated margins could be muted versus prior trends.

Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Martin Marietta Materials Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMartin Marietta Materials, Inc., a natural resource-based building materials company, supplies aggregates and heavy-side building materials to the construction industry in the United States and internationally. It offers crushed stone, sand, and gravel products; ready mixed concrete and asphalt; paving products and services; and Portland and specialty cement for use in the infrastructure projects, and nonresidential and residential construction markets, as well as in the railroad, agricultural, utility, and environmental industries. The company also produces magnesia-based chemicals products that are used in industrial, agricultural, and environmental applications; and dolomitic lime primarily to customers for steel production and soil stabilization. Its chemical products are used in flame retardants, wastewater treatment, pulp and paper production, and other environmental applications. The company was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina.
How the Company Makes MoneyMartin Marietta generates revenue primarily through the sale of aggregates and heavy building materials. The Aggregates segment is the largest contributor to the company's earnings, driven by demand in the construction and infrastructure markets. Revenue is derived from the direct sale of raw materials to contractors, builders, and governmental entities, which are used in various construction projects such as roads, bridges, and commercial buildings. Additionally, the Specialty Products segment contributes to the revenue through the sale of cement, ready-mixed concrete, and asphalt products. Strategic partnerships with key construction firms and government contracts enhance the company's revenue stability. Factors such as infrastructure spending, economic growth, and housing demand are significant contributors to the company's earnings, as they directly influence the volume of materials required in the market.

Martin Marietta Materials Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Aggregates Tons Shipped to Customers
Aggregates Tons Shipped to Customers
Measures the volume of aggregates delivered, reflecting demand in construction and infrastructure projects and the company’s market reach.
Chart InsightsMartin Marietta's aggregates tons shipped show a steady recovery in 2025, with a notable increase in Q3, aligning with record aggregates revenues and improved gross margins. This growth is supported by infrastructure investments and nonresidential demand, as highlighted in the earnings call. Despite some challenges in downstream products, the company anticipates continued resilience in its core aggregates business, projecting low single-digit volume growth and mid-single-digit pricing gains for 2026. The strategic asset exchange with QUIKRETE further positions Martin Marietta for future growth under SOAR 2030.
Data provided by:The Fly

Martin Marietta Materials Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive outlook: management reported record 2025 results across aggregates, specialties, cash flow and safety, met SOAR 2025 targets, and provided constructive 2026 guidance (shipments +2%, consolidated adj. EBITDA ~$2.49B) while reducing capex to boost free cash. Material lowlights include downstream weakness (other building materials -8% revenues, -18% gross profit), continued softness in private residential/nonresidential construction, Q4 one‑time costs and freight pressures, and near-term optical ASP/mix headwinds from acquisitions (Quickrete, Minnesota) and base stone intensity on large projects. Management positioned guidance conservatively (network optimization benefits not fully baked in) and highlighted strong balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA 2.3x, $1.2B liquidity). Overall, the positive operational and financial momentum and strong cash generation meaningfully outweigh the identifiable headwinds.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Financial, Operational and Safety Performance
2025 delivered record results across financial, operational and safety metrics; company highlighted record safety performance (lowest total reportable incidents) alongside strong operational execution under SOAR 2025.
Fourth Quarter Aggregates Strength
Q4 aggregates revenues rose 8% to $1.2B, gross profit increased 11% to $420M, gross profit per ton improved 9% to $8.59, and aggregates gross margin expanded 93 basis points to 34%.
Full-Year Aggregates and Building Materials Performance
Full-year aggregates revenues climbed 11% to $5.0B (pricing +6.9%, volumes +3.8%), aggregates gross profit increased 16% to $1.7B, aggregates gross margin expanded 143 bps to 34%, gross profit per ton was $8.45 (+12% YoY). Continuing operations Building Materials revenues were $5.7B (+7%) with gross profit $1.8B (+13%) and margin expanded 173 bps to 31%.
Specialties Segment Record Results
Specialties posted record full-year revenues of $441M and record gross profit of $137M, driven by organic pricing, shipment growth and five months of contribution from Premier Magnesia.
Strong Cash Flow and Disciplined Capital Allocation
Full-year cash flow from operations was a record $1.8B (+22% YoY). In 2025 the company deployed $812M on acquisitions, reinvested $680M in plants/equipment, returned $647M to shareholders; ended year with net debt/adjusted EBITDA of 2.3x and $1.2B liquidity.
SOAR 2025 Strategic Targets Met
Over five years ended 12/31/2025 the company delivered a 208 basis point price-cost spread (exceeding 200 bps target), >13% CAGR in aggregates gross profit per ton, announced/executed ~ $16B of portfolio transactions, invested $3.2B sustaining/growth CapEx and returned $2.1B to shareholders; five-year TSR 126% (~30 percentage points above S&P 500).
Positive 2026 Guidance and Conservative Posture
2026 midpoint guidance: shipments +2%, consolidated adjusted EBITDA ~ $2.49B (inclusive of discontinued ops). Aggregates are expected to deliver low double-digit gross profit growth at midpoint (mid-single-digit pricing, low single-digit shipments). Specialties expected to deliver high-teens gross profit growth. Planned capital spending of $575M (down 29% YoY) to increase free cash flow for M&A and buybacks.
Favorable End-Market Tailwinds
Infrastructure demand underpinned by IIJA (71% obligated, 48% dispersed as of 11/30/25) with reimbursements expected to peak in 2026; data center and energy spending accelerating (Goldman Sachs cited hyperscalers potentially deploying >$500B in 2026); LNG, power generation and rail-distributed large projects cited as durable demand drivers.
Negative Updates
Downstream / Other Building Materials Softness
Other building materials revenues decreased 8% to $992M and gross profit fell 18% to $98M in 2025, driven by weakness in the Minnesota asphalt business and the April 2025 California paving divestiture.
Private Construction and Residential Headwinds
Private construction remains challenging: single-family housing and nonresidential square footage starts are well below post-COVID peaks; residential affordability is a key near-term constraint and aggregate demand remains roughly 14% below 2022 levels in some markets.
Q4 One-Time Costs and Freight Pressure
Q4 experienced higher external freight costs and one-time inventory write-offs (West/California) tied to restructuring; inflation, freight and depreciation were incremental cost pressures even as pricing largely offset them.
Mix and Acquisition Optical Headwinds
Quickrete asset exchange and Minnesota-related items have lower average selling prices, creating an optical ASP headwind; base stone demand tied to big projects carries substantially lower ASP (~30% lower than clean stone), which can depress blended ASPs until finished-product layers are applied.
Conservative Guidance Excludes Some Potential Upside
Guidance excludes full benefits from network optimization (pilot benefits realized in Q4 but broader gains not included); implied COGS per ton guide of ~3% and only limited operating leverage included, meaning some operational improvement upside is not yet reflected.
Ready-Mix / Downstream Industry Weakness
Ready-mixed concrete and certain downstream businesses remain challenged and consolidation or profitability pressure in those segments could create pricing pressure from the contractor side in some markets.
Timing and Execution Risk on Quickrete Exchange
Company expects closing of Quickrete asset exchange in Q1 2026 but closing is dependent on complex 1031 real estate processes (title, surveys, land use), creating potential timing risk for when guidance will be fully updated.
Policy Timing and IIJA Uncertainty (Timing vs. Volume)
IIJA is scheduled to expire September 2026; while management expects a multiyear reauthorization or interim measure, timing and the pace of federal disbursements versus obligations (only 48% dispersed) create some timing uncertainty for public project cash flows and multi-year demand cadence.
Company Guidance
Martin Marietta’s 2026 guidance calls for shipments to grow about 2% at the midpoint and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of roughly $2.49 billion (inclusive of discontinued operations), with aggregates expected to deliver low‑double‑digit gross profit growth at the midpoint driven by low‑single‑digit shipment growth, mid‑single‑digit pricing, and COGS per ton roughly in line with inflation (company‑implied COGS‑per‑ton inflation ≈ 3% vs. underlying inflation ~3.5%; Q4 ex‑external freight COGS/ton growth ~2.7%); Michael indicated aggregates gross profit dollars at the midpoint are ~11% growth and that each 1% reduction in COGS/ton = ~ $35 million of ag gross profit upside. Specialties are guided to high‑teens gross profit growth (organic gross profit run‑rate ~ $160 million pro forma with Premier Magnesia contribution), other building materials roughly flat, consolidated revenues and adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations are expected to grow high single digits at the midpoint, planned 2026 capital spending is $575 million (a 29% YoY reduction) to boost free cash flow for M&A and buybacks, and the company will update guidance upon closing the Quickrete asset exchange (noting ~$250 million of adjusted EBITDA from discontinued ops previously); FY25 ended with net debt/adjusted EBITDA of 2.3x and total liquidity of $1.2 billion.

Martin Marietta Materials Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong underlying profitability and cash generation: solid 2025 margins (gross ~31%, net ~18) and operating cash flow of ~$1.8B covering net income (~2.0x). Balance sheet leverage is moderate and improving (debt-to-equity down to ~0.53), but the recent revenue decline (2024–2025) and profitability normalization/volatility temper the score.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Profitability is solid for the industry, with 2025 gross margin (~31%) and net margin (~18%) holding up well. However, results have become more volatile: revenue declined in 2024 and fell further in 2025 (down ~7%), and 2024 showed unusually high profitability versus the surrounding years, suggesting earnings normalization in 2025. Overall: strong underlying margins, but a softer top-line and less consistent profit profile recently.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Leverage looks manageable and improving: debt-to-equity has trended down from ~0.85 (2021) to ~0.53 (2025), and equity has grown steadily alongside assets. Returns on equity are healthy but have moderated meaningfully from 2024 (~21%) to 2025 (~11%), consistent with the step-down in earnings. Overall balance sheet is supportive, with moderate leverage but some profitability cyclicality to watch.
Cash Flow
74
Positive
Cash generation is a strength: operating cash flow rose to ~$1.8B in 2025 and comfortably covered net income (about ~2.0x), indicating good earnings quality. Free cash flow is solid at ~$978M in 2025, though it dipped slightly year over year and free cash flow remains only about ~55% of net income, implying ongoing reinvestment or working-capital/capex demands. Overall: strong operating cash flow with mildly uneven free-cash-flow momentum.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.54B6.54B6.78B6.16B5.41B
Gross Profit1.96B1.88B2.02B1.42B1.35B
EBITDA2.15B3.34B2.17B1.77B1.45B
Net Income1.14B2.00B1.17B867.00M702.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets18.71B18.17B15.13B14.99B14.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments67.00M670.00M1.27B358.00M258.40M
Total Debt5.32B5.80B4.73B5.43B5.53B
Total Liabilities8.68B8.71B7.09B7.82B7.86B
Stockholders Equity10.03B9.45B8.03B7.17B6.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow978.00M604.00M878.00M509.00M714.60M
Operating Cash Flow1.78B1.46B1.53B991.00M1.14B
Investing Cash Flow-1.59B-2.44B459.00M-484.00M-3.47B
Financing Cash Flow-800.00M373.00M-1.06B-407.00M2.29B

Martin Marietta Materials Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price696.85
Price Trends
50DMA
652.40
Positive
100DMA
635.32
Positive
200DMA
606.62
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
9.75
Negative
RSI
61.13
Neutral
STOCH
71.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MLM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 696.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 671.44, above the 50-day MA of 652.40, and above the 200-day MA of 606.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MLM.

Martin Marietta Materials Risk Analysis

Martin Marietta Materials disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Martin Marietta Materials reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Martin Marietta Materials Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$41.51B38.3012.99%0.67%6.54%32.48%
74
Outperform
$2.33B12.8626.21%1.12%15.70%19.92%
72
Outperform
$42.03B36.4310.65%0.51%1.99%-41.08%
71
Outperform
$19.04B18.563.14%0.74%-6.34%210.97%
70
Outperform
$7.28B17.0528.77%0.47%1.50%-4.44%
65
Neutral
$5.04B32.299.71%5.52%-25.56%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MLM
Martin Marietta Materials
696.85
208.54
42.71%
CX
Cemex SAB
12.57
6.18
96.74%
EXP
Eagle Materials
231.69
4.35
1.92%
VMC
Vulcan Materials
317.89
69.21
27.83%
TGLS
Tecnoglass
49.96
-19.58
-28.16%
KNF
Knife River Corporation
88.94
-7.06
-7.35%

Martin Marietta Materials Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Martin Marietta Completes Strategic Aggregates-Focused Asset Exchange
Positive
Feb 23, 2026

On February 23, 2026, Martin Marietta Materials completed an asset exchange with Quikrete Holdings that reshapes its business mix toward aggregates. The company traded its Midlothian, Texas cement plant, related cement terminals, Texas ready-mix concrete operations and certain nonoperating land to Quikrete, receiving in return aggregates operations producing about 20 million tons annually in Virginia, Missouri, Kansas and Vancouver, British Columbia, plus $450 million in cash.

Management described the deal as the largest aggregates acquisition in Martin Marietta’s history and a tax-efficient swap of more cyclical cement and ready-mix assets for higher-margin aggregates, enhancing earnings durability and reinforcing its Central Division footprint. As the capstone to its SOAR 2025 strategic plan, the transaction accelerates the company’s aggregates-led strategy, establishes new growth platforms in targeted markets and, together with prior acquisitions, underpins updated 2026 guidance centered on higher aggregates volumes, modest pricing gains and continued balance sheet flexibility for future M&A-focused expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (MLM) stock is a Buy with a $706.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Martin Marietta Materials stock, see the MLM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Martin Marietta Posts Record 2025 Results, Issues 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 11, 2026

Martin Marietta reported on February 11, 2026, that for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, it achieved record aggregates revenues, gross profit and margins, alongside record revenues and gross profit in its Specialties business. Full-year revenues rose 9% to $6.15 billion and adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations increased 17% to $2.07 billion, driven by higher aggregates pricing and improved unit profitability despite macro headwinds in housing and nonresidential construction.

The company’s aggregates shipments grew 4% for 2025 and average selling prices rose 7%, lifting aggregates gross profit 16% and gross profit per ton 12%, though total earnings per diluted share declined 42% year-on-year due partly to comparisons with prior-year discontinued operations. Management highlighted successful execution of its SOAR 2025 plan, the launch of SOAR 2030 and ongoing portfolio optimization, while issuing 2026 guidance that assumes low single-digit shipment growth supported by robust infrastructure spending and rising demand from data centers and energy projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (MLM) stock is a Buy with a $703.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Martin Marietta Materials stock, see the MLM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Martin Marietta extends and modifies key credit facility
Positive
Dec 19, 2025

On December 19, 2025, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. entered into Loan Modification No. 4 and Extension Agreement with its lenders and JPMorgan Chase Bank (JPMCB), amending a material definitive credit agreement. The move reflects an adjustment and extension of the company’s existing financing arrangements, which may support its capital structure and liquidity position as it continues to operate in the construction materials sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (MLM) stock is a Buy with a $730.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Martin Marietta Materials stock, see the MLM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 25, 2026