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Banco Bradesco (BBDO)
NYSE:BBDO
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Banco Bradesco
(NYSE:BBDO)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
â–²(16.28% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is driven primarily by improving but still mixed financial performance (recovery in 2025 tempered by higher leverage and historically volatile cash flow). Valuation is a clear positive with a low P/E and strong dividend yield, while technicals are a near-term headwind given weak momentum and price below key moving averages. Earnings-call commentary supports a constructive outlook, though higher costs and capital/regulatory uncertainty constrain the upside.
Positive Factors
Diversified universal-bank model
Bradesco's broad universal-bank model creates multiple durable revenue streams—net interest income, fees, insurance and treasury—reducing reliance on any single cycle. This breadth supports cross‑sell, diversified earnings and resilience to isolated shocks over the next 2–6 months.
Digital scale and SME franchise
Large and growing digital penetration plus rising SME share materially lower cost-to-serve and boost fee/NII stickiness. Digital scale and improved SME NPS support sustained customer acquisition, product penetration and recurring revenues, underpinning medium-term margin and growth trends.
High-margin insurance & capital-markets performance
Strong insurance ROE and double-digit capital markets growth provide durable, higher-margin earnings less correlated with core loan spreads. These businesses diversify revenue, enhance recurring income and can support ROAE even if loan margins fluctuate, strengthening long-term profitability.
Negative Factors
Materially higher leverage
A sharp rise in leverage increases sensitivity to credit cycles, funding stresses and interest-rate moves. Higher debt-to-equity narrows buffer for losses and raises the cost of capital, making capital management and CET1 volatility a sustained constraint on strategic flexibility over coming quarters.
Volatile cash generation
While 2025 showed strong operating and free cash flow, prior negative cash years highlight inconsistent cash conversion. This reduces predictability for funding dividends, buybacks or capital buffers and elevates execution risk for multi-year investments if cash shocks recur.
Rising operating costs and CET1/regulatory risk
Higher recurring OpEx from technology, HR and restructuring raises the breakeven for efficiency goals. Coupled with CET1 uncertainty from prudential adjustments, this amplifies capital and margin pressure: efficiency gains must materialize to offset sustained expense growth without eroding ROAE.
Banco Bradesco (BBDO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$35.09B
Dividend Yield2.8%
Average Volume (3M)47.97K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.1
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth5.89%
EPS Growth34.01%
CountryUS
Employees71,953
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding5,303,870,600
10 Day Avg. Volume57,685
30 Day Avg. Volume47,969
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.22
Price to Book (P/B)1.08
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio0.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap24.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.50
Enterprise Value/Ebitda33.17
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Banco Bradesco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBanco Bradesco S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services to individuals, corporates, and businesses in Brazil and internationally. The company operates through two segment, Banking and Insurance. It provides current, savings, click, and salary accounts; real estate credit, vehicle financing, payroll loans, mortgage loans, microcredit, leasing, and personal and installment credit; debit and business cards; financial and security services; consortium products; auto, personal accident, dental, travel, and life insurance; investment products; pension products; real estate and vehicle auctions; cash management, and foreign trade and exchange services; capitalization bonds; and internet banking services. Banco Bradesco S.A. was founded in 1943 and is headquartered in Osasco, Brazil.
How the Company Makes MoneyBradesco generates revenue primarily from (1) net interest income and (2) fee and commission income, supplemented by (3) insurance-related earnings, (4) trading/treasury results, and (5) other financial income.
1) Net interest income (spread-based revenue): A major source of earnings comes from the interest spread between what Bradesco earns on interest-bearing assets (e.g., consumer and corporate loans, credit cards/overdrafts, financing, and securities) and what it pays on funding sources (e.g., customer deposits, interbank funding, and issued debt). Net interest income is influenced by Brazil’s interest-rate environment, credit demand, funding mix (low-cost deposits vs. wholesale funding), and credit losses.
2) Fees and commissions (service-based revenue): Bradesco charges fees for banking services such as account maintenance and packages, payments and cash management, card issuance and merchant acquiring-related services, wire/transfer services, and other transactional services. It also earns commissions from distributing and servicing investment products (e.g., mutual funds and wealth products), brokerage services, and certain credit-related services. This stream benefits from customer activity, product penetration, and the size of the client base across retail and corporate segments.
3) Insurance, pension, and capitalization-related earnings (via affiliated operations): Through its insurance ecosystem and distribution network, Bradesco earns income from insurance premiums and related underwriting results, as well as fees/commissions for distributing insurance, pension, and capitalization products through its banking channels. Results depend on premium volume, claims experience, reserving, investment returns on insurance float, and sales productivity through branch and digital channels.
4) Treasury and capital markets (market-related revenue): Bradesco earns income from treasury activities such as trading fixed income, FX, and derivatives; managing its securities portfolio; and providing hedging and market services to clients. Revenue here can be volatile and depends on market conditions, interest rates, currency movements, and client flow.
5) Other income and factors affecting profitability: Additional contributors can include gains/losses on financial assets, equity-method results from investments in affiliates, and recoveries. Overall earnings are materially affected by credit quality and provisioning (loan-loss provisions), operating efficiency, regulatory requirements (including capital and liquidity rules), and competitive dynamics in Brazilian banking and payments.
Banco Bradesco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive tone driven by strong recurring net income growth (Q4 and full year), ROAE surpassing cost of capital, significant digital and SME progress, robust NII and fee trends, capital markets and insurance outperformance, and continued high technology investment and AI adoption. Management acknowledged near‑term tradeoffs—higher operating expenses driven by technology and restructuring, regulatory/capital timing risks (CET1 and DTAs), some revenue detractors (checking/collections) and conservative guidance that tempered market expectations—but characterized these as controlled or temporary and part of a multi‑year transformation aimed at sustainable ROAE improvement.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong recurring net income and annual growth
Recurring net income of BRL 6.5 billion in Q4 2025, up 20.6% year‑over‑year; full year recurring net income BRL 24.7 billion, up 26.1% YoY.
ROAE exceeding cost of capital
Return on average equity (ROAE) reached 15.2% in the quarter, noted as above the bank's cost of capital and targeted to continue rising in coming quarters.
Digital retail scale and efficiency gains
19 million fully digital clients at year‑end with BIA GenAI retaining ~90% of digital calls; direct cost to serve on the digital platform reported reduced by 40x and the bank targets ~40 million digital clients in 2026.
Affluent segment expansion
Affluent upgrades exceeded 3.1 million clients; Prime ended the year with 2.3 million clients; Principal launched Nov 2024 reached ~320,000 clients and 62 offices by year‑end with plans to reach ~800,000 Principal clients and ~4.7 million total affluent clients in 2026.
SME leadership and customer satisfaction
SME market share rose from 14.3% to 16.6% (to Sept 2025); SME NPS improved from 56 to 74 after new digital model and service changes; micro/small/medium companies portfolio grew 21.3%.
Loan portfolio growth and portfolio quality
Expanded loan portfolio growth accelerated to ~11% (year end), with loan growth across segments; 90‑day NPLs and other loan quality indicators described as flat; Stage 3 provisions declining while Stage 1 increasing.
Net interest income and fee growth
Net interest income up 14.9% year‑over‑year and client NII up 17.4%; fee and commission income growing with card income up ~14.4% and other fee lines showing traction.
Capital markets and insurance performance
Capital markets revenues rose 29.2% year‑over‑year (FY25 vs FY24); insurance operations delivered strong results with Insurance ROE ~24.3% and technical provisions reported at ~BRL 446 billion, growing >10% YoY.
Technology investment and delivery capacity
Technology investments up 22% in 2025 vs 2024; internal delivery capacity for apps rose ~3x (from base 100 to ~300), with continued focus on AI‑first (GenAI, ML) initiatives.
Improving efficiency trajectory
Efficiency ratio improved (reduced) by ~2.2 percentage points to ~50% with an ambition to reach 40% by 2028; operating leverage initiatives and cross‑selling opportunities highlighted.
Share price appreciation and market recognition
Share price appreciated ~106% between Dec 31, 2024 and Feb 6, 2026, reflecting strong market reaction to results and transformation progress.
Negative Updates
Operating expenses growth
Operating expenses increased by 8.5% in 2025; even excluding certain affiliates (EloPar and Cielo) OpEx grew ~7.2%, above inflation in parts and driven by higher technology spending, profit sharing and some advertising/marketing investments.
Higher technology and restructuring spend in near term
Technology investments rose 22% and management states ~3 percentage points of 2026 expense guidance relate to continued technology investment; one‑time restructuring / implementation related items (cited BRL ~700 million) impacted costs.
Regulatory and capital headwinds / CET1 uncertainty
Management expects CET1 around ~11% in 2026 but flagged potential near‑term volatility from prudential adjustments (Resolution 4,966 operating risk) and quarter‑to‑quarter fluctuations; Q1 CET1 could show pressure.
DTAs and tax/timing considerations
Deferred tax assets (DTAs) expected to be managed down in 2027‑2028; tax rate guidance variable (management referenced a working tax rate range ~16%–21%, with a planning rate around 18.5%–19%), introducing some earnings‑timing uncertainty.
Certain revenue detractors and Cielo large‑account attrition
Management highlighted checking account and collection businesses as relative detractors in the period; Cielo had some large accounts reduce TPV where margins were unacceptable, limiting potential topline gains in payments.
Market expectations vs guidance tension
Management noted that market expectations for 2026 were higher than guidance (sell‑side anticipation of much larger upside), producing some short‑term sentiment pressure despite positive results; guidance chosen conservatively led to investor questions.
Election‑related macro volatility risk
Management acknowledged potential second‑half volatility linked to Brazil's election cycle and macro fiscal pressures, which could impact market conditions and performance in H2 2026.
Company Guidance
The management guided to continued profitable growth in 2026 with expanded loan‑book growth targeted roughly 8.5%–10.5% (management cited ~9.5% as a baseline), CET1 around 11%, and recurring net income momentum off 2025’s BRL 6.5bn Q4 / BRL 24.7bn full year (ROAE 15.2%) expected to keep improving; top‑line growth is guided to be close to 10% next year while operating expenses are guided to rise about 8% (with roughly 3% attributable to continued technology investment and ~5% to personnel/HR), technology spend having risen 22% in 2025 and contributing ~3% of the 2026 growth assumption. Other guideposts: IOE planned above BRL 15bn (vs. BRL 14.5bn in 2025), insurance operations growth already +16.1% (insurance ROE ~24.3%), an efficiency ratio around ~50% today with a 40% target by 2028, continued capital discipline with DTAs expected to be stable in 2026 and decline thereafter, and digital/SME targets (19m fully digital clients at year‑end to ~40m target, SME market share rising from 14.3% to 16.6% by Sept‑25) underpinning the revenue and ROAE outlook.Banco Bradesco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
2025 shows a clear rebound (revenue +23.4% YoY) and improved profitability, but margins remain well below 2021–2022 levels. Balance-sheet risk is elevated with materially higher leverage (debt-to-equity ~4.45), and cash flow has been inconsistent across prior years despite the strong 2025 rebound.Income Statement
Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 (+23.4% vs. 2024) after a flat 2024, and profitability improved year over year (net margin ~6.5% in 2025 vs. ~5.6% in 2023). However, margins remain well below earlier highs (net margin ~14.7% in 2021 and ~8.9% in 2022), indicating weaker profitability vs. the company’s own history. EBIT margin has also compressed versus 2021–2022 levels, despite the 2025 improvement.67
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows solid scale (assets ~R$2.33T in 2025) and a healthy return on equity (~13.3% in 2025, up from ~10.2% in 2024). The main drawback is higher leverage: debt-to-equity rose to ~4.45 in 2025 from ~1.50–1.60 in 2020–2021, which increases sensitivity to credit cycles and funding conditions even as equity has grown over time.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is volatile. 2025 shows very strong operating cash flow (~R$263B) and free cash flow (~R$258B), roughly in line with earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.98). That said, prior years were uneven, including materially negative operating and free cash flow in 2024 and negative free cash flow in 2023 and 2021, which reduces confidence in consistency and predictability of cash conversion.46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 349.09B | 249.61B | 254.71B | 239.65B | 157.55B |
| Gross Profit | 120.81B | 78.69B | 68.16B | 82.50B | 93.07B |
| EBITDA | 21.31B | 23.63B | 16.73B | 30.28B | 38.63B |
| Net Income | 23.67B | 17.25B | 14.25B | 21.22B | 23.17B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.33T | 2.07T | 1.93T | 1.79T | 1.68T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 254.98B | 476.88B | 522.98B | 367.61B | 394.23B |
| Total Debt | 793.84B | 689.53B | 631.89B | 571.92B | 238.94B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.15T | 1.90T | 1.76T | 1.63T | 1.53T |
| Stockholders Equity | 178.42B | 168.41B | 166.33B | 159.53B | 149.78B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 258.03B | -93.62B | -9.32B | 40.36B | -106.41B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 263.05B | -91.33B | -177.63M | 49.77B | -102.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -437.05B | -5.01B | 83.61B | -17.78B | -19.31B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 161.17B | 117.88B | -23.06B | 21.92B | -1.61B |
Banco Bradesco Technical Analysis
Negative
3.01
Price Trends
3.40
Negative
3.19
Negative
2.88
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
36.73
Neutral
17.04
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBDO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.51, below the 50-day MA of 3.40, and above the 200-day MA of 2.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.04 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BBDO.
Banco Bradesco Risk Analysis
Banco Bradesco disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Banco Bradesco reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Banco Bradesco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $35.31B | 8.02 | 9.81% | 2.79% | -4.64% | 24.98% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $19.21B | 14.56 | 21.25% | 5.56% | -11.64% | -8.75% | |
65 Neutral | $28.05B | 18.46 | 8.70% | 2.86% | -4.88% | 4.84% | |
61 Neutral | $35.09B | 8.13 | 13.55% | 2.80% | 5.89% | 34.01% | |
57 Neutral | $21.26B | 9.97 | 11.15% | 4.98% | 1.13% | -11.93% | |
56 Neutral | $14.55B | 12.58 | 21.37% | 4.29% | 12.43% | 56.30% |
* Financial Sector Average
BBDO
Banco Bradesco
3.16
1.28
68.44%
BCH
Banco De Chile
37.54
10.58
39.25%
BSBR
Banco Santander Brasil
5.72
1.17
25.74%
BSAC
Banco Santander Chile
30.56
8.04
35.70%
KB
Kb Financial Group
99.47
44.08
79.58%
SHG
Shinhan Financial Group Co
58.79
26.20
80.39%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.