BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.73B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 85.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.37
• Revenue Growth: -6.95%
• EPS Growth: -53.69%
• Country: US
• Employees: 630
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Information Technology Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 436,551,240
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 58,654,274
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 85,993,158
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): -279.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.57
• P/FCF Ratio: -26.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 16.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 62.24
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -10.59
• 1Y Price Target: $6.33
• Price Target Upside: 1.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.32
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $151.99M

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▼(-12.14% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, negative margins, and negative operating/free cash flow) and a bearish-to-neutral technical setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting this somewhat are positive corporate actions that reduce debt and expand capabilities via acquisition, while valuation is difficult to assess due to negative earnings and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnership

The partnership with C Speed enhances BigBear.ai's defense capabilities, integrating AI with radar systems, potentially expanding market reach in defense and homeland security sectors.

Acquisition of Ask Sage

The acquisition of Ask Sage enhances BigBear.ai's AI capabilities, particularly in secure AI distribution for defense, potentially boosting revenue and market position.

CFO Appointment

The appointment of Sean Ricker as CFO provides leadership stability and financial expertise, which could improve financial management and strategic execution.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

Declining revenue growth and negative margins indicate operational challenges, affecting profitability and long-term financial health.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flows suggest liquidity issues, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage financial obligations.

Equity Instability

Equity instability and negative ROE reflect potential risks in asset management, which could impact investor confidence and financial stability.

BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and management consulting services. It focuses in the areas of cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations and wireless, systems engineering, and strategy and program planning. The Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services. This segment focuses on the areas of big data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions. Its solutions assist customers in aggregating, interpreting, and synthesizing data to enable real-time decision-making capabilities. The company is headquartered in Columbia, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

BigBearai generates revenue through a combination of government contracts and commercial partnerships. A significant portion of its earnings comes from providing AI-driven analytics solutions to defense and intelligence agencies, which typically involve long-term contracts and ongoing support services. In addition, BBAI collaborates with private sector companies to offer customized data analytics solutions, contributing to its revenue stream. The company also invests in research and development to innovate its product offerings, which can lead to new revenue opportunities and partnerships in emerging markets.

BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BigBearai Holdings faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue, persistent losses, and negative margins. The balance sheet reflects instability with fluctuating equity and leverage issues, while cash flow is under pressure with negative operating and free cash flows.

Income Statement

BigBearai Holdings has experienced declining revenue growth, with a negative growth rate in the TTM period. The company also shows negative margins across the board, including gross, net, EBIT, and EBITDA margins, indicating significant profitability challenges. The consistent negative net profit margin highlights ongoing operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the negative return on equity and fluctuating equity levels over the years indicate financial instability. The equity ratio is not favorable, reflecting potential risks in asset management.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, with a declining free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, suggesting some ability to cover net losses, but overall cash flow health is weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	144.20M	158.24M	155.16M	155.01M	145.58M	91.32M
Gross Profit	39.34M	45.22M	40.60M	42.99M	34.07M	21.68M
EBITDA	-231.18M	-258.28M	-22.32M	-48.17M	-107.44M	6.61M
Net Income	-434.57M	-295.55M	-70.66M	-111.37M	-123.55M	-2.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	919.76M	343.78M	199.91M	195.31M	383.32M	218.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	586.66M	50.14M	32.56M	12.63M	68.90M	9.70M
Total Debt	112.89M	146.41M	200.59M	200.28M	194.60M	106.99M
Total Liabilities	309.74M	347.49M	267.25M	233.18M	260.95M	117.97M
Stockholders Equity	610.02M	-3.71M	-67.33M	-37.87M	122.37M	100.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-39.22M	-49.23M	-22.14M	-49.69M	-20.42M	922.00K
Operating Cash Flow	-34.92M	-38.12M	-18.31M	-48.92M	-19.78M	1.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-266.27M	2.82M	-3.83M	-5.23M	-863.00K	-184.99M
Financing Cash Flow	692.35M	52.46M	42.06M	-103.14M	180.86M	192.22M

BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.26
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.96, above the 50-day MA of 6.08, and above the 200-day MA of 5.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BBAI.

BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LDOS	77 Outperform	$24.40B	17.80	29.51%	0.87%	6.48%	22.17%
PLTR	74 Outperform	$425.21B	417.21	19.76%	―	47.23%	116.33%
PSN	67 Neutral	$7.49B	20.03	15.89%	―	-0.24%	389.03%
ASGN	66 Neutral	$2.11B	16.65	7.25%	―	-4.86%	-25.15%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
AI	47 Neutral	$1.96B	-4.91	-46.77%	―	1.84%	-27.74%
BBAI	46 Neutral	$2.73B	-4.41	-111.83%	―	-6.95%	-53.69%

BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events

BigBear.ai Announces Major Convertible Notes Debt Redemption

On January 2, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings announced that it had called for the redemption of all its 6.00% Convertible Senior Secured Notes due 2029, a move that is expected to eliminate about $125 million of debt through a mix of voluntary noteholder conversions and cash redemption of any remaining notes by the January 16, 2026 redemption date. Following approximately $58 million of principal already converted in 2025, the company expects to reduce total note-related debt from roughly $142 million to about $17 million, primarily by issuing around 38 million previously reserved common shares instead of using cash, materially lowering long-term liabilities and interest expense, increasing public float, and enhancing financial flexibility to support both organic growth and targeted acquisitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

BigBear.ai Holdings Amends Bylaws and Increases Stock

On December 1, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. amended its Bylaws to adjust voting standards, address SEC proxy rules, and enhance procedural requirements for stockholder nominations and proposals. These changes aim to modernize governance and ensure compliance with regulatory standards. During a Special Meeting on the same day, stockholders approved increasing authorized common stock from 500 million to 1 billion shares and agreed to adjourn the meeting to solicit additional proxies, with the meeting set to reconvene on December 5, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

BigBear.ai Acquires Ask Sage for $250 Million

On November 10, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings announced a definitive agreement to acquire Ask Sage, a generative AI platform, for $250 million. This acquisition aims to enhance BigBear.ai’s capabilities in secure AI distribution, particularly for defense and national security sectors. The merger is expected to close by early 2026, with Ask Sage projected to deliver an annual recurring revenue of approximately $25 million in 2025. Despite a 20% revenue decline in Q3 2025 compared to the previous year, BigBear.ai reported a net income of $2.5 million, showing improvement from a net loss in Q3 2024. The company remains optimistic about future growth opportunities, particularly in border security and defense, and continues to project full-year 2025 revenue between $125 million and $140 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.