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BigBearai Holdings
(NYSE:BBAI)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▼(-9.42% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—especially persistent losses and significant negative operating/free cash flow—along with a bearish price trend (trading below key moving averages). Partially offsetting these are a more constructive earnings outlook with affirmed guidance, improving gross margin, and rising backlog, while recent equity-raising capacity improves flexibility but introduces dilution overhang.
Positive Factors
Backlog Growth & Contract Wins
A ~14% sequential backlog increase to ~$282M and new large awards provide multi-period revenue visibility. For a government-focused AI services firm, a growing backlog signals stronger future revenue conversion, steadier cash inflows, and higher likelihood of multi-year program renewals if execution remains solid.
Negative Factors
Persistent Negative Operating and Free Cash Flow
Sustained negative OCF and FCF imply the business consumes cash to fund operations and investments. Over months this increases dependence on external financing or equity raises, constrains reinvestment capacity, and heightens execution risk if backlog converts slower than expected or contract timings slip.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog Growth & Contract Wins
A ~14% sequential backlog increase to ~$282M and new large awards provide multi-period revenue visibility. For a government-focused AI services firm, a growing backlog signals stronger future revenue conversion, steadier cash inflows, and higher likelihood of multi-year program renewals if execution remains solid.
Read all positive factors
BigBearai Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBigBearai Holdings (BBAI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.34B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)26.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.45
Revenue Growth-13.72%
EPS Growth87.44%
CountryUS
Employees579
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.18
Shares Outstanding479,494,500
10 Day Avg. Volume24,320,975
30 Day Avg. Volume26,502,829
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)3.17
Price to Sales (P/S)15.18
P/FCF Ratio-41.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.00Price Target Upside44.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$143.45M
BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is an analytics and artificial intelligence software and services company focused on decision intelligence for complex, mission-critical environments. The company provides AI-enabled software platforms and professi...
How the Company Makes Money
BigBear.ai makes money primarily by delivering AI-enabled software and analytics solutions and related services to customers under contracted arrangements, with a meaningful portion of its business tied to U.S. government procurement. Key revenue ...
BigBearai Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights meaningful commercial momentum (large classified prime, multiple product and platform wins, backlog up ~14%), a substantial gross margin improvement (~1,300 bps to 34%), strong liquidity (~$131M) and strategic product and hiring progress. Offsetting this progress are material GAAP losses ($56.8M), a larger negative adjusted EBITDA (negative $9.9M), increased SG&A and R&D spending (SG&A up ≈29%, R&D up ≈31%), and ~ $36M of noncash charges related to debt conversion. Management affirmed full-year guidance ($135M–$165M) and emphasized go-to-market realignment and integration momentum. Overall, operational and commercial positives appear to outweigh the near-term financial drag, though profitability and expense discipline remain workstreams.Positive Updates
Revenue Stability with GenAI Contribution
Q1 revenue of $34.4M, essentially flat versus prior-year quarter, driven by increased revenue from GenAI platforms and products following the AppSage acquisition.
Negative Updates
Large Net Loss Remains
Net loss of $56.8M in Q1 2026, although improved from ~$62M in the comparable period (loss reduced by ~$5.2M, ≈8.4% improvement), the company remains significantly unprofitable on a GAAP basis.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Stability with GenAI Contribution
Q1 revenue of $34.4M, essentially flat versus prior-year quarter, driven by increased revenue from GenAI platforms and products following the AppSage acquisition.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management affirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $135–$165 million, citing Q1 results and recent bookings as the underpinning: Q1 revenue was $34.4 million, backlog rose 14% sequentially to $281.9 million, and the company closed with $131 million of cash and investments. Q1 gross margin expanded to 34% (up ~1,300 basis points YoY), adjusted EBITDA was negative $9.9 million (net loss $56.8 million vs. $62 million a year ago) with about $36 million of non‑cash charges, SG&A of $29.2 million and R&D of $5.5 million; management pointed to a new sole‑source intelligence contract with a ~$53 million ceiling and $7 million of combined Chicago O’Hare/Dallas Fort Worth travel contracts, plus momentum from the Assage and CargoSphere acquisitions, as drivers supporting the outlook.BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 131.63M | 127.67M | 158.24M | 155.16M | 155.01M | 145.58M |
| Gross Profit | 36.75M | 28.48M | 45.22M | 40.60M | 42.99M | 34.07M |
| EBITDA | -63.12M | -260.52M | -258.28M | -22.32M | -48.17M | -107.44M |
| Net Income | -85.82M | -293.91M | -295.55M | -70.66M | -111.37M | -123.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 841.31M | 894.55M | 343.78M | 199.91M | 195.31M | 383.32M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.28M | 87.13M | 50.14M | 32.56M | 12.63M | 68.90M |
| Total Debt | 22.75M | 24.33M | 146.41M | 200.59M | 200.28M | 194.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 70.99M | 282.68M | 347.49M | 267.25M | 233.18M | 260.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 770.32M | 611.87M | -3.71M | -67.33M | -37.87M | 122.37M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -73.84M | -46.32M | -49.23M | -22.14M | -49.69M | -20.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -71.63M | -41.95M | -38.12M | -18.31M | -48.92M | -19.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -614.22M | -606.68M | 2.82M | -3.83M | -5.23M | -863.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 332.35M | 691.31M | 52.46M | 42.06M | -103.14M | 180.86M |
BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
2.76
Price Trends
3.68
Negative
3.74
Negative
4.75
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.29
Positive
27.72
Positive
12.51
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.00, below the 50-day MA of 3.68, and below the 200-day MA of 4.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.72 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BBAI.
BigBearai Holdings Risk Analysis
BigBearai Holdings disclosed 116 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BigBearai Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $295.01B | 128.19 | 32.18% | ― | 67.71% | 283.83% | |
68 Neutral | $14.54B | 10.48 | 29.15% | 1.51% | 2.34% | 10.44% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $4.72B | 30.07 | 6.01% | ― | -5.84% | -60.23% | |
45 Neutral | $1.34B | -15.71 | -50.67% | ― | -13.72% | 87.44% | |
45 Neutral | $1.43B | -2.74 | -63.91% | ― | -35.67% | -49.96% |
* Technology Sector Average
BBAI
BigBearai Holdings
2.79
-4.30
-60.65%
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AI
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9.18
-14.01
-60.41%
BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BigBear.ai Announces New At-the-Market Equity Program
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
On July 31, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. entered into an Open Market Sale Agreement with Jefferies LLC, appointing the firm as sales agent for an at-the-market offering of up to 100,000,000 shares of its common stock. The shares may be sold fro...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
BigBear.ai Shareholders Approve Major Increase in Authorized Stock
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
On June 9, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. shareholders approved an amendment to double the company’s authorized common stock from 500 million to 1 billion shares, effective the same day upon filing in Delaware, significantly expanding its c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.