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BigBearai Holdings (BBAI)
NYSE:BBAI
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BigBearai Holdings
(NYSE:BBAI)
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Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▼(-18.28% Downside)
BigBearai Holdings' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, characterized by declining revenue and negative cash flows. While the earnings call highlighted strategic opportunities and a strong cash position, these are overshadowed by ongoing financial challenges and a negative valuation outlook. Technical analysis provides a neutral influence, with mixed signals that do not significantly alter the overall assessment.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Position
A strong cash position enhances financial flexibility, allowing the company to invest in growth opportunities, manage debt, and weather economic downturns.
Strategic Partnerships
International partnerships and new solutions indicate strategic global expansion, potentially increasing market reach and diversifying revenue streams.
Growth Opportunities in AI
The surge in AI investments aligns with BigBear.ai's focus, positioning the company to capitalize on expanding demand for AI solutions in national security and logistics.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
Declining revenue due to contract disruptions highlights potential instability in income streams, challenging the company's ability to maintain growth and profitability.
Negative Adjusted EBITDA
Negative EBITDA indicates operational inefficiencies and challenges in achieving profitability, which may hinder investment in growth and innovation.
Goodwill Impairment
The goodwill impairment reflects reduced expectations for future earnings, potentially impacting investor confidence and the company's valuation.
BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.49B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)81.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.28
Revenue Growth3.46%
EPS Growth-74.21%
CountryUS
Employees630
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.71
Shares Outstanding370,703,200
10 Day Avg. Volume140,532,331
30 Day Avg. Volume81,566,016
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)-279.90
Price to Sales (P/S)6.57
P/FCF Ratio-26.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.76
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit44.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-11.09
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.83Price Target Upside-13.37% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and management consulting services. It focuses in the areas of cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations and wireless, systems engineering, and strategy and program planning. The Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services. This segment focuses on the areas of big data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions. Its solutions assist customers in aggregating, interpreting, and synthesizing data to enable real-time decision-making capabilities. The company is headquartered in Columbia, Maryland.
How the Company Makes MoneyBigBearai generates revenue through a combination of government contracts and commercial partnerships. A significant portion of its earnings comes from providing AI-driven analytics solutions to defense and intelligence agencies, which typically involve long-term contracts and ongoing support services. In addition, BBAI collaborates with private sector companies to offer customized data analytics solutions, contributing to its revenue stream. The company also invests in research and development to innovate its product offerings, which can lead to new revenue opportunities and partnerships in emerging markets.
BigBearai Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataBigBearai Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant strategic opportunities and market positioning advantages, particularly in AI and international partnerships. However, these were balanced by financial challenges such as revenue decline, contract disruptions, and a negative adjusted EBITDA, leading to a neutral sentiment.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Cash Position
BigBear.ai reported an all-time record cash position of $391 million and a net positive cash position of almost $250 million, marking the first time in the company's history where total cash exceeds total debt.
Passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3)
OB3 provides $170 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Homeland Security and $150 billion to the Department of Defense, directly benefiting BigBear.ai's core capabilities in national and border security.
International Partnerships and Expansion
BigBear.ai formed a transformative partnership with leading companies in the UAE and launched a cargo security management solution with Narval Holdings in Panama, indicating strategic global expansion.
Strong Market Position in Biometric Solutions
BigBear.ai's biometric solution, veriScan, has become a market standard for enhanced passenger processing, and the company expanded deployments across 12 airports and seaports in North America.
Significant Growth Opportunities in AI
The U.S. and allies have committed to unprecedented partnerships in AI, with U.S. investments projected to surge by 44% year-over-year, aligning with BigBear.ai's strategic focus.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline and Contract Disruptions
Second quarter revenue was $32.5 million, a decrease of $7.3 million year-over-year, primarily driven by disruptions in Army contracts.
Negative Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was negative $8.5 million, down from negative $3.7 million in the comparable period, due to lower gross profit and higher R&D expenses.
Withdrawal of Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
Due to recent impacts on large programs and government contracting timing risks, BigBear.ai withdrew its adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year.
Goodwill Impairment Charge
A goodwill impairment charge of about $71 million was recorded, driven partially by the reduced guidance range for 2025.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter 2025 earnings call, BigBear.ai provided an optimistic outlook despite some challenges. The company highlighted a transformative funding environment, notably the $170 billion supplemental funding for the Department of Homeland Security and $150 billion for the Department of Defense, which are expected to drive growth. BigBear.ai reported a strong financial position with a record $391 million in cash and a net positive cash position of nearly $250 million. Revenue for the quarter was $32.5 million, a decrease from the previous year, primarily due to disruptions in Army programs. The company adjusted its full-year revenue guidance to between $125 million and $140 million and withdrew its adjusted EBITDA guidance due to reduced revenue outlook and increased investment plans. Despite these challenges, BigBear.ai emphasized its strategic focus on expanding its pipeline, targeting acquisitions, and leveraging its AI capabilities to capitalize on significant growth opportunities in national security, AI, and logistics sectors.BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
BigBearai Holdings faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue, negative profitability margins, and negative operating and free cash flows. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage but past negative equity raises concerns about financial stability.Income Statement
BigBearai Holdings has experienced declining revenue growth, with a negative growth rate in the TTM period. The company shows negative profitability margins, including gross, net, EBIT, and EBITDA margins, indicating operational challenges and inefficiencies. The consistent negative net income and declining revenue growth highlight significant financial struggles.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating profits from its equity base. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the negative stockholders' equity in previous periods suggests potential financial instability.40
Negative
Cash Flow
BigBearai Holdings has negative operating and free cash flows, with a declining free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, suggesting that the company is generating more free cash flow relative to its net income, but the overall cash flow situation remains weak.30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 152.56M | 158.24M | 155.16M | 155.01M | 145.58M | 91.32M |
| Gross Profit | 42.67M | 45.22M | 40.60M | 42.99M | 34.07M | 21.68M |
| EBITDA | -171.13M | -258.28M | -38.10M | -101.02M | -107.44M | 6.61M |
| Net Income | -410.81M | -257.09M | -60.37M | -121.67M | -123.55M | -34.10K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 599.37M | 343.78M | 199.91M | 195.31M | 383.32M | 218.37M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 390.85M | 50.14M | 32.56M | 12.63M | 68.90M | 9.70M |
| Total Debt | 9.96M | 146.41M | 200.59M | 200.28M | 194.60M | 106.99M |
| Total Liabilities | 332.82M | 347.49M | 267.25M | 233.18M | 260.95M | 117.97M |
| Stockholders Equity | 266.55M | -3.71M | -67.33M | -37.87M | 122.37M | 100.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -39.72M | -38.60M | -18.31M | -49.69M | -20.43M | 922.00K |
| Operating Cash Flow | -31.91M | -38.12M | -18.31M | -48.92M | -19.78M | 1.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.51M | 2.82M | -3.83M | -5.23M | -863.00K | -184.99M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 361.32M | 52.46M | 42.06M | -103.14M | 180.86M | 192.22M |
BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
6.73
Price Trends
6.18
Positive
5.50
Positive
4.81
Positive
Market Momentum
0.41
Negative
57.45
Neutral
60.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.80, above the 50-day MA of 6.18, and above the 200-day MA of 4.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BBAI.
BigBearai Holdings Risk Analysis
BigBearai Holdings disclosed 116 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BigBearai Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $2.10B | 15.20 | 7.67% | ― | -6.31% | -23.56% | |
69 Neutral | $2.56B | 23.01 | 5.29% | ― | 8.66% | -35.78% | |
65 Neutral | $2.51B | 6.83 | 12.05% | ― | -4.93% | 497.03% | |
56 Neutral | $2.48B | -5.95 | -8.68% | ― | -3.92% | 67.52% | |
43 Neutral | $2.49B | ― | -222.48% | ― | 3.46% | -74.21% | |
43 Neutral | $2.36B | -6.61 | -34.44% | ― | 14.34% | -13.27% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
BBAI
BigBearai Holdings
6.73
5.27
360.96%
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47.87
-45.36
-48.65%
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Globant SA
58.01
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-70.72%
DXC
DXC Technology
14.01
-6.74
-32.48%
CLVT
Clarivate
3.69
-3.41
-48.03%
AI
C3ai
17.14
-7.09
-29.26%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.