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BigBearai Holdings (BBAI)
NYSE:BBAI
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BigBearai Holdings
(NYSE:BBAI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(3.83% Upside)
BigBear.ai Holdings' overall stock score is primarily impacted by significant financial challenges, including declining revenue and negative margins. While technical indicators and corporate events show some positive aspects, the valuation concerns and mixed earnings call sentiment weigh down the score.
Positive Factors
Strategic Expansion
Opening a Middle East office signals strategic expansion and long-term investment in a growing market, enhancing global presence.
Acquisition of Ask Sage
The acquisition enhances AI capabilities, particularly in defense and national security, supporting long-term growth and innovation.
Record Cash Position
A strong cash position provides financial flexibility, supporting strategic initiatives and cushioning against economic uncertainties.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
Declining revenue indicates challenges in maintaining market share and demand, impacting long-term financial health and growth.
Negative Margins
Sustained negative margins highlight operational inefficiencies, posing risks to profitability and financial sustainability.
Goodwill Impairment Charge
Significant goodwill impairment reflects potential overvaluation of past acquisitions, impacting balance sheet strength and investor confidence.
BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.73B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)109.35M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.44
Revenue Growth-6.95%
EPS Growth-53.69%
CountryUS
Employees630
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.01
Shares Outstanding436,551,240
10 Day Avg. Volume134,290,799
30 Day Avg. Volume109,350,432
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)-279.90
Price to Sales (P/S)6.57
P/FCF Ratio-26.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue16.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit62.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-10.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.50Price Target Upside3.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$133.51M
BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBigBearai Holdings (BBAI) is a technology company specializing in artificial intelligence and data analytics, primarily serving the defense, intelligence, and commercial sectors. The company focuses on delivering advanced predictive analytics and decision support solutions that leverage AI to help clients optimize operations, enhance situational awareness, and improve decision-making processes.
How the Company Makes MoneyBigBearai generates revenue through a combination of government contracts and commercial partnerships. A significant portion of its earnings comes from providing AI-driven analytics solutions to defense and intelligence agencies, which typically involve long-term contracts and ongoing support services. In addition, BBAI collaborates with private sector companies to offer customized data analytics solutions, contributing to its revenue stream. The company also invests in research and development to innovate its product offerings, which can lead to new revenue opportunities and partnerships in emerging markets.
BigBearai Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBigBearai Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant strategic opportunities and market positioning advantages, particularly in AI and international partnerships. However, these were balanced by financial challenges such as revenue decline, contract disruptions, and a negative adjusted EBITDA, leading to a neutral sentiment.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Cash Position
BigBear.ai reported an all-time record cash position of $391 million and a net positive cash position of almost $250 million, marking the first time in the company's history where total cash exceeds total debt.
Passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3)
OB3 provides $170 billion in supplemental funding to the Department of Homeland Security and $150 billion to the Department of Defense, directly benefiting BigBear.ai's core capabilities in national and border security.
International Partnerships and Expansion
BigBear.ai formed a transformative partnership with leading companies in the UAE and launched a cargo security management solution with Narval Holdings in Panama, indicating strategic global expansion.
Strong Market Position in Biometric Solutions
BigBear.ai's biometric solution, veriScan, has become a market standard for enhanced passenger processing, and the company expanded deployments across 12 airports and seaports in North America.
Significant Growth Opportunities in AI
The U.S. and allies have committed to unprecedented partnerships in AI, with U.S. investments projected to surge by 44% year-over-year, aligning with BigBear.ai's strategic focus.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline and Contract Disruptions
Second quarter revenue was $32.5 million, a decrease of $7.3 million year-over-year, primarily driven by disruptions in Army contracts.
Negative Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was negative $8.5 million, down from negative $3.7 million in the comparable period, due to lower gross profit and higher R&D expenses.
Withdrawal of Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
Due to recent impacts on large programs and government contracting timing risks, BigBear.ai withdrew its adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year.
Goodwill Impairment Charge
A goodwill impairment charge of about $71 million was recorded, driven partially by the reduced guidance range for 2025.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter 2025 earnings call, BigBear.ai provided an optimistic outlook despite some challenges. The company highlighted a transformative funding environment, notably the $170 billion supplemental funding for the Department of Homeland Security and $150 billion for the Department of Defense, which are expected to drive growth. BigBear.ai reported a strong financial position with a record $391 million in cash and a net positive cash position of nearly $250 million. Revenue for the quarter was $32.5 million, a decrease from the previous year, primarily due to disruptions in Army programs. The company adjusted its full-year revenue guidance to between $125 million and $140 million and withdrew its adjusted EBITDA guidance due to reduced revenue outlook and increased investment plans. Despite these challenges, BigBear.ai emphasized its strategic focus on expanding its pipeline, targeting acquisitions, and leveraging its AI capabilities to capitalize on significant growth opportunities in national security, AI, and logistics sectors.BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
BigBearai Holdings faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue, persistent losses, and negative margins. The balance sheet reflects instability with fluctuating equity and leverage issues, while cash flow is under pressure with negative operating and free cash flows.Income Statement
BigBearai Holdings has experienced declining revenue growth, with a negative growth rate in the TTM period. The company also shows negative margins across the board, including gross, net, EBIT, and EBITDA margins, indicating significant profitability challenges. The consistent negative net profit margin highlights ongoing operational inefficiencies.25
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the negative return on equity and fluctuating equity levels over the years indicate financial instability. The equity ratio is not favorable, reflecting potential risks in asset management.30
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, with a declining free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, suggesting some ability to cover net losses, but overall cash flow health is weak.20
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 144.20M | 158.24M | 155.16M | 155.01M | 145.58M | 91.32M |
| Gross Profit | 39.34M | 45.22M | 40.60M | 42.99M | 34.07M | 21.68M |
| EBITDA | -231.18M | -258.28M | -22.32M | -48.17M | -107.44M | 6.61M |
| Net Income | -434.57M | -295.55M | -70.66M | -111.37M | -123.55M | -2.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 919.76M | 343.78M | 199.91M | 195.31M | 383.32M | 218.37M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 586.66M | 50.14M | 32.56M | 12.63M | 68.90M | 9.70M |
| Total Debt | 112.89M | 146.41M | 200.59M | 200.28M | 194.60M | 106.99M |
| Total Liabilities | 309.74M | 347.49M | 267.25M | 233.18M | 260.95M | 117.97M |
| Stockholders Equity | 610.02M | -3.71M | -67.33M | -37.87M | 122.37M | 100.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -39.22M | -49.23M | -22.14M | -49.69M | -20.42M | 922.00K |
| Operating Cash Flow | -34.92M | -38.12M | -18.31M | -48.92M | -19.78M | 1.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -266.27M | 2.82M | -3.83M | -5.23M | -863.00K | -184.99M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 692.35M | 52.46M | 42.06M | -103.14M | 180.86M | 192.22M |
BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
6.26
Price Trends
6.52
Negative
6.33
Negative
5.33
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
50.46
Neutral
22.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.21, below the 50-day MA of 6.52, and above the 200-day MA of 5.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BBAI.
BigBearai Holdings Risk Analysis
BigBearai Holdings disclosed 116 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BigBearai Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $23.61B | 17.23 | 29.51% | 0.88% | 6.48% | 22.17% | |
74 Outperform | $460.91B | 452.25 | 19.76% | ― | 47.23% | 116.33% | |
67 Neutral | $6.54B | 17.47 | 15.89% | ― | -0.24% | 389.03% | |
66 Neutral | $2.08B | 16.46 | 7.25% | ― | -4.86% | -25.15% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
49 Neutral | $2.73B | -4.41 | -111.83% | ― | -6.95% | -53.69% | |
47 Neutral | $2.03B | -5.10 | -46.77% | ― | 1.84% | -27.74% |
* Technology Sector Average
BBAI
BigBearai Holdings
6.26
3.07
96.24%
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14.44
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-59.28%
BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events
Shareholder MeetingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BigBear.ai Holdings Amends Bylaws and Increases Stock
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025
On December 1, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. amended its Bylaws to adjust voting standards, address SEC proxy rules, and enhance procedural requirements for stockholder nominations and proposals. These changes aim to modernize governance and ensure compliance with regulatory standards. During a Special Meeting on the same day, stockholders approved increasing authorized common stock from 500 million to 1 billion shares and agreed to adjourn the meeting to solicit additional proxies, with the meeting set to reconvene on December 5, 2025.
M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
BigBear.ai Acquires Ask Sage for $250 Million
Positive
Nov 10, 2025
On November 10, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings announced a definitive agreement to acquire Ask Sage, a generative AI platform, for $250 million. This acquisition aims to enhance BigBear.ai’s capabilities in secure AI distribution, particularly for defense and national security sectors. The merger is expected to close by early 2026, with Ask Sage projected to deliver an annual recurring revenue of approximately $25 million in 2025. Despite a 20% revenue decline in Q3 2025 compared to the previous year, BigBear.ai reported a net income of $2.5 million, showing improvement from a net loss in Q3 2024. The company remains optimistic about future growth opportunities, particularly in border security and defense, and continues to project full-year 2025 revenue between $125 million and $140 million.
Executive/Board Changes
BigBear.ai Appoints Sean Ricker as CFO
Neutral
Oct 14, 2025
On October 14, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. announced the appointment of Sean R. Ricker as Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Ricker, who has been serving as interim CFO since June 2025, will receive a compensation package that includes a base salary of $420,000, eligibility for an annual bonus, and a retention award of 200,000 Restricted Stock Units. His previous roles within the company include Chief Accounting Officer and Corporate Controller.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.