BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.83B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 70.50M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.29
• Revenue Growth: 3.46%
• EPS Growth: -74.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 630
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Information Technology Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.71
• Shares Outstanding: 370,703,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 46,092,093
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 70,499,337
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.44
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 44.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -11.09
• 1Y Price Target: $5.83
• Price Target Upside: 18.26% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(11.56% Upside)

BigBear.ai's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its significant financial challenges, including declining revenue and negative profitability. While there are strategic opportunities in AI and international partnerships, these are overshadowed by financial instability and negative cash flows. Technical indicators and valuation metrics further reflect a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Contract Wins

BigBear announced that it was awarded a $165 million, 5-year contract for the U.S. Army Global Force Information Management (GFIM) Production Services.

Legislative Trends

BigBear.ai is well positioned to be a beneficiary of the One Big Beautiful Bill, which substantially increases investment in areas aligned with the company's core competencies.

Partnerships

BigBear’s partnership with L3Harris as the exclusive provider of computer vision, predictive analytics, and event alerting analytics applications for L3Harris’s autonomous surface vessels remains a positive.

Negative Factors

Earnings Miss

Revenue of $32.5M was well below the $41.0M estimate.

Market Expectations

Shares of BigBear.ai are trading down over 20% after the company reported fourth-quarter results below consensus and issued 2025 guidance below expectations.

Revenue Guidance

The company lowered its full year revenue guidance to $125.0M to $140.0M, down from $160.0M and $180.0M, previously.

BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) is a technology company specializing in artificial intelligence and data analytics, primarily serving the defense, intelligence, and commercial sectors. The company focuses on delivering advanced predictive analytics and decision support solutions that leverage AI to help clients optimize operations, enhance situational awareness, and improve decision-making processes.

How the Company Makes Money

BigBearai generates revenue through a combination of government contracts and commercial partnerships. A significant portion of its earnings comes from providing AI-driven analytics solutions to defense and intelligence agencies, which typically involve long-term contracts and ongoing support services. In addition, BBAI collaborates with private sector companies to offer customized data analytics solutions, contributing to its revenue stream. The company also invests in research and development to innovate its product offerings, which can lead to new revenue opportunities and partnerships in emerging markets.

BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BigBearai Holdings faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenue, negative profitability margins, and negative operating and free cash flows. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage but negative equity in past periods, raising concerns about financial stability.

Income Statement

BigBearai Holdings has experienced declining revenue growth, with a negative growth rate in the TTM period. The company shows negative profitability margins, including gross, net, EBIT, and EBITDA margins, indicating operational challenges and inefficiencies. The consistent negative net income and declining revenue growth highlight significant financial struggles.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating profits from its equity base. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the negative stockholders' equity in previous periods suggests potential financial instability.

Cash Flow

BigBearai Holdings has negative operating and free cash flows, with a declining free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, suggesting that the company is generating more free cash flow relative to its net income, but the overall cash flow situation remains weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	152.56M	158.24M	155.16M	155.01M	145.58M	91.32M
Gross Profit	42.67M	45.22M	40.60M	42.99M	34.07M	21.68M
EBITDA	-171.13M	-258.28M	-38.10M	-101.02M	-107.44M	6.61M
Net Income	-410.81M	-257.09M	-60.37M	-121.67M	-123.55M	-34.10K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	599.37M	343.78M	199.91M	195.31M	383.32M	218.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	390.85M	50.14M	32.56M	12.63M	68.90M	9.70M
Total Debt	9.96M	146.41M	200.59M	200.28M	194.60M	106.99M
Total Liabilities	332.82M	347.49M	267.25M	233.18M	260.95M	117.97M
Stockholders Equity	266.55M	-3.71M	-67.33M	-37.87M	122.37M	100.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-39.72M	-38.60M	-18.31M	-49.69M	-20.43M	922.00K
Operating Cash Flow	-31.91M	-38.12M	-18.31M	-48.92M	-19.78M	1.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-10.51M	2.82M	-3.83M	-5.23M	-863.00K	-184.99M
Financing Cash Flow	361.32M	52.46M	42.06M	-103.14M	180.86M	192.22M

BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.93
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.59, below the 50-day MA of 6.48, and above the 200-day MA of 4.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BBAI.

BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAY	78 Outperform	$4.71B	87.10	11.59%	―	49.35%	72.05%
TASK	70 Outperform	$1.62B	26.67	12.49%	―	19.04%	24.49%
GDYN	66 Neutral	$665.51M	38.81	3.69%	―	22.27%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$35.51B	8.11	-11.05%	1.89%	8.55%	-8.72%
HCKT	61 Neutral	$571.12M	34.02	15.27%	2.22%	4.18%	-51.62%
BBAI	42 Neutral	$1.83B	―	-222.48%	―	3.46%	-74.21%
AI	42 Neutral	$2.08B	―	-40.94%	―	14.34%	-13.27%

BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events

BigBear.ai Appoints Anthony Evangelista to Board

On August 12, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. announced the election of Anthony Evangelista to its Board of Directors, Audit Committee, and Compensation Committee. Mr. Evangelista, a retired partner from PriceWaterhouseCooper, brings extensive financial services experience to the role. His appointment is expected to enhance the company’s governance and oversight capabilities, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder relations positively.

BigBear.ai Holdings Director Jeffrey Hart Resigns

On July 14, 2025, Jeffrey Hart resigned from his position as Director of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. His resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company regarding its operations, policies, or practices. The company expressed gratitude for his service to both the company and its stockholders.

BigBear.ai Announces CFO Departure and Interim Appointment

On June 6, 2025, BigBear.ai announced the departure of its Chief Financial Officer, Julie Peffer, who is leaving to pursue other opportunities. Her exit is not linked to any disagreements or financial issues within the company. Sean R. Ricker, previously the Chief Accounting Officer, has been appointed as the interim CFO. Ricker’s familiarity with BigBear.ai’s operations is expected to ensure a smooth transition as the company searches for a permanent replacement. Peffer’s tenure, beginning in June 2022, was marked by significant contributions to the company’s financial health, including capital fundraising and debt restructuring. Her departure package includes a severance payment and benefits, contingent on a separation agreement.