BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.28B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 107.69M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.42
• Revenue Growth: 3.46%
• EPS Growth: -74.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 630
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 89
• Industry: Information Technology Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.71
• Shares Outstanding: 370,703,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 98,159,139
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 107,686,645
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.44
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 44.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -11.09
• 1Y Price Target: $5.88
• Price Target Upside: -4.23% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▼(-2.28% Downside)

BigBearai Holdings' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by declining revenue and negative profitability. While there are positive developments such as a strong cash position and strategic board appointments, these are overshadowed by the company's ongoing financial struggles and negative valuation metrics.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Improvement

Recent balance sheet improvements provide flexibility and could allow the business to pursue accretive M&A, accelerating revenue growth and timeline to more consistent profitability.

Contract Wins

BigBear was awarded a $13.2 million, 3.5-year contract to deploy the Department of Defense Joint Staff J35 Orion Decision Support Platform.

Industry Trends

Favorable industry and legislative trends are seen as catalysts for long term growth.

Negative Factors

Earnings Miss

Revenue of $32.5M was well below the $41.0M estimate.

Revenue Guidance

The company lowered its full year revenue guidance to $125.0M to $140.0M, down from $160.0M and $180.0M, previously.

Stock Performance

Shares of BigBear.ai are trading down over 20% after the company reported fourth-quarter results below consensus and issued 2025 guidance below expectations.

BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is a technology-driven company specializing in artificial intelligence and machine learning solutions. The company operates primarily in the sectors of cybersecurity, logistics, government, and commercial enterprises. BigBear.ai provides data-driven decision support systems, analytics, and operational tools that empower organizations to make informed decisions based on comprehensive data analysis and predictive modeling.

How the Company Makes Money

BigBear.ai generates revenue through a combination of product sales, subscription-based software solutions, and professional services. Key revenue streams include licensing fees for their proprietary software platforms, which are designed to enhance decision-making capabilities by leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning. The company also earns income by providing consulting services aimed at integrating their AI solutions into clients' existing systems. Significant partnerships with government agencies and commercial enterprises contribute to BigBear.ai's earnings, particularly through long-term contracts and collaborative projects that require ongoing support and customization of their AI tools.

BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BigBearai Holdings faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenue, negative profitability margins, and negative operating and free cash flows. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage but negative equity in past periods, raising concerns about financial stability.

Income Statement

BigBearai Holdings has experienced declining revenue growth, with a negative growth rate in the TTM period. The company shows negative profitability margins, including gross, net, EBIT, and EBITDA margins, indicating operational challenges and inefficiencies. The consistent negative net income and declining revenue growth highlight significant financial struggles.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating profits from its equity base. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the negative stockholders' equity in previous periods suggests potential financial instability.

Cash Flow

BigBearai Holdings has negative operating and free cash flows, with a declining free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, suggesting that the company is generating more free cash flow relative to its net income, but the overall cash flow situation remains weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	152.56M	158.24M	155.16M	155.01M	145.58M	91.32M
Gross Profit	42.67M	45.22M	40.60M	42.99M	34.07M	21.68M
EBITDA	-171.13M	-258.28M	-38.10M	-101.02M	-107.44M	6.61M
Net Income	-410.81M	-257.09M	-60.37M	-121.67M	-123.55M	-34.10K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	599.37M	343.78M	199.91M	195.31M	383.32M	218.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	390.85M	50.14M	32.56M	12.63M	68.90M	9.70M
Total Debt	9.96M	146.41M	200.59M	200.28M	194.60M	106.99M
Total Liabilities	332.82M	347.49M	267.25M	233.18M	260.95M	117.97M
Stockholders Equity	266.55M	-3.71M	-67.33M	-37.87M	122.37M	100.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-39.72M	-38.60M	-18.31M	-49.69M	-20.43M	922.00K
Operating Cash Flow	-31.91M	-38.12M	-18.31M	-48.92M	-19.78M	1.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-10.51M	2.82M	-3.83M	-5.23M	-863.00K	-184.99M
Financing Cash Flow	361.32M	52.46M	42.06M	-103.14M	180.86M	192.22M

BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 6.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.81, below the 50-day MA of 6.14, and above the 200-day MA of 4.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BBAI.

BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAY	76 Outperform	$4.67B	85.80	11.59%	―	49.35%	72.05%
TASK	70 Outperform	$1.55B	25.63	12.49%	―	19.04%	24.49%
GDYN	66 Neutral	$651.96M	38.02	3.69%	―	22.27%	―
HCKT	64 Neutral	$557.64M	33.85	15.27%	2.27%	4.18%	-51.62%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$36.30B	7.30	-7.27%	1.97%	7.76%	-6.42%
AI	60 Neutral	$2.41B	―	-33.73%	―	25.27%	4.68%
BBAI	43 Neutral	$2.28B	―	-222.48%	―	3.46%	-74.21%

BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events

BigBear.ai Appoints Anthony Evangelista to Board

On August 12, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. announced the election of Anthony Evangelista to its Board of Directors, Audit Committee, and Compensation Committee. Mr. Evangelista, a retired partner from PriceWaterhouseCooper, brings extensive financial services experience to the role. His appointment is expected to enhance the company’s governance and oversight capabilities, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder relations positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

BigBear.ai Holdings Director Jeffrey Hart Resigns

On July 14, 2025, Jeffrey Hart resigned from his position as Director of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. His resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company regarding its operations, policies, or practices. The company expressed gratitude for his service to both the company and its stockholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Buy with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

BigBear.ai Announces CFO Departure and Interim Appointment

On June 6, 2025, BigBear.ai announced the departure of its Chief Financial Officer, Julie Peffer, who is leaving to pursue other opportunities. Her exit is not linked to any disagreements or financial issues within the company. Sean R. Ricker, previously the Chief Accounting Officer, has been appointed as the interim CFO. Ricker’s familiarity with BigBear.ai’s operations is expected to ensure a smooth transition as the company searches for a permanent replacement. Peffer’s tenure, beginning in June 2022, was marked by significant contributions to the company’s financial health, including capital fundraising and debt restructuring. Her departure package includes a severance payment and benefits, contingent on a separation agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

BigBear.ai Files New Prospectus for Share Sales

On May 10, 2024, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. entered into a Controlled Equity Offering sales agreement with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., allowing the company to sell shares of its common stock through the sales agent. By May 30, 2025, BigBear.ai had sold shares for gross proceeds of approximately $150 million. On June 2, 2025, the company filed a new prospectus with the SEC to continue the sales under the same terms, maintaining a maximum aggregate offering price of $150 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

BigBear.ai Holdings Concludes 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting

On June 2, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. conducted its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where holders of 133,264,537 shares were present, fulfilling the quorum requirement. During the meeting, shareholders elected directors Sean Battle, Paul Fulchino, and Dorothy D. Hayes for a three-year term and ratified the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.