BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.26B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 164.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.29
• Revenue Growth: 9.40%
• EPS Growth: 13.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 630
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 87
• Industry: Information Technology Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 291,188,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 267,512,150
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 164,082,981
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): -2.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.44
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.61
• 1Y Price Target: $5.83
• Price Target Upside: -24.77% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▼(-3.23%Downside)

The overall stock score is impacted by financial performance challenges, despite positive technical indicators. Revenue growth and backlog improvements are offset by profitability issues and negative cash flows, suggesting caution despite technical strength.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Improvements

Recent balance sheet improvements provide flexibility and could allow the business to pursue accretive M&A, accelerating revenue growth and timeline to more consistent profitability.

Contract Wins

BigBear announced that it was awarded a $165 million, 5-year contract for the U.S. Army Global Force Information Management Production Services.

Partnerships

BigBear’s partnership with L3Harris as the exclusive provider of computer vision, predictive analytics, and event alerting analytics applications for L3Harris’s autonomous surface vessels remains a positive.

Negative Factors

Gross Margin

Higher revenue was offset by both lower gross margin and higher recurring operating expense resulting in an adj. EBITDA loss of $7.0M versus our $4.0M loss estimate.

Guidance Concerns

Shares of BigBear.ai are trading down over 20% after the company reported fourth-quarter results below consensus and issued 2025 guidance below expectations.

Revenue Performance

Revenue of $43.8M was well below the Street’s $54.6M estimate resulting in the company missing its full year guide of between $165.0M and $180.0M.

BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and management consulting services. It focuses in the areas of cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations and wireless, systems engineering, and strategy and program planning. The Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services. This segment focuses on the areas of big data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions. Its solutions assist customers in aggregating, interpreting, and synthesizing data to enable real-time decision-making capabilities. The company is headquartered in Columbia, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

BigBear.ai generates revenue through a combination of product sales, subscription-based software solutions, and professional services. Key revenue streams include licensing fees for their proprietary software platforms, which are designed to enhance decision-making capabilities by leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning. The company also earns income by providing consulting services aimed at integrating their AI solutions into clients' existing systems. Significant partnerships with government agencies and commercial enterprises contribute to BigBear.ai's earnings, particularly through long-term contracts and collaborative projects that require ongoing support and customization of their AI tools.

BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BigBearai Holdings shows revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash generation. The balance sheet has improved equity, but negative cash flows indicate challenges in liquidity and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

BigBearai Holdings shows a consistent increase in revenue over the years, with a 3.1% increase from 2023 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, the company has struggled with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT, EBITDA, and net income margins. The net profit margin for TTM is significantly negative, indicating challenges in cost management or operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a high level of equity compared to total assets, with an equity ratio of 49.9% for TTM. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.05, suggesting limited leverage. The company has improved its stockholders' equity significantly from negative figures in previous years, indicating a positive trend in financial stability.

Cash Flow

BigBearai Holdings has shown negative operating and free cash flows consistently, which is a concern for liquidity. The free cash flow growth rate has been negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is not favorable, reflecting challenges in generating cash from core operations. Despite this, financing activities have provided substantial cash inflows, possibly from debt or equity financing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	159.87M	158.24M	155.16M	155.01M	145.58M	91.32M
Gross Profit	45.62M	45.22M	40.60M	42.99M	34.07M	21.68M
EBITDA	-38.17M	-45.68M	-37.57M	-101.02M	-107.44M	-34.10K
Net Income	-193.93M	-257.09M	-60.37M	-121.67M	-123.55M	-34.10K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	396.27M	343.78M	199.91M	195.31M	383.32M	218.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	107.61M	50.14M	32.56M	12.63M	68.90M	9.70M
Total Debt	10.68M	146.41M	200.59M	200.28M	194.60M	106.99M
Total Liabilities	198.47M	347.49M	267.25M	233.18M	260.95M	117.97M
Stockholders Equity	197.79M	-3.71M	-67.33M	-37.87M	122.37M	100.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-39.94M	-38.60M	-22.14M	-49.69M	-20.43M	922.00K
Operating Cash Flow	-30.42M	-38.12M	-18.31M	-48.92M	-19.78M	1.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-11.05M	2.82M	-3.83M	-5.23M	-863.00K	-184.99M
Financing Cash Flow	67.44M	52.46M	42.06M	-103.14M	180.86M	192.22M

BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.75
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.07, above the 50-day MA of 4.19, and above the 200-day MA of 3.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.00 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BBAI.

BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HCKT	73 Outperform	$710.19M	30.09	23.13%	1.87%	3.96%	-31.63%
GDYN	67 Neutral	$1.05B	94.72	2.42%	―	18.72%	347.70%
PAY	66 Neutral	$3.89B	78.36	10.80%	―	47.78%	74.61%
TASK	66 Neutral	$1.50B	28.17	11.35%	―	14.05%	17.90%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$34.07B	6.13	-11.73%	1.80%	5.33%	-18.31%
AI	60 Neutral	$3.46B	―	-33.73%	―	25.27%	4.68%
BBAI	52 Neutral	$2.26B	―	-126.64%	―	9.40%	13.55%

BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events

BigBear.ai Announces CFO Departure and Interim Appointment

On June 6, 2025, BigBear.ai announced the departure of its Chief Financial Officer, Julie Peffer, who is leaving to pursue other opportunities. Her exit is not linked to any disagreements or financial issues within the company. Sean R. Ricker, previously the Chief Accounting Officer, has been appointed as the interim CFO. Ricker’s familiarity with BigBear.ai’s operations is expected to ensure a smooth transition as the company searches for a permanent replacement. Peffer’s tenure, beginning in June 2022, was marked by significant contributions to the company’s financial health, including capital fundraising and debt restructuring. Her departure package includes a severance payment and benefits, contingent on a separation agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

BigBear.ai Files New Prospectus for Share Sales

On May 10, 2024, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. entered into a Controlled Equity Offering sales agreement with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., allowing the company to sell shares of its common stock through the sales agent. By May 30, 2025, BigBear.ai had sold shares for gross proceeds of approximately $150 million. On June 2, 2025, the company filed a new prospectus with the SEC to continue the sales under the same terms, maintaining a maximum aggregate offering price of $150 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

BigBear.ai Holdings Concludes 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting

On June 2, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. conducted its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where holders of 133,264,537 shares were present, fulfilling the quorum requirement. During the meeting, shareholders elected directors Sean Battle, Paul Fulchino, and Dorothy D. Hayes for a three-year term and ratified the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

BigBear.ai Announces Interest Payment in Stock

On May 15, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. announced that it will pay the upcoming interest on its 6.0% Convertible Senior Secured Notes Due 2029 in shares of its common stock instead of cash. This decision, made in accordance with the terms of the Indenture, may impact the company’s cash flow management and could have implications for stakeholders regarding the company’s financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.