Bigbear.Ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)
NYSE:BBAI
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BigBearai Holdings
(NYSE:BBAI)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(3.90% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—sharp TTM revenue decline, large losses, and negative free cash flow. Partially offsetting this are moderately improving near-term technical momentum and a more constructive earnings-call outlook (affirmed guidance, backlog growth, and significant gross margin improvement), while the authorized-share increase adds dilution overhang and valuation lacks support due to ongoing losses.
Positive Factors
Backlog and Contract Wins
A backlog of ~$282M, up ~14%, combined with recent classified and program wins provides multi-quarter revenue visibility in government contracting. This kind of backlog supports steadier revenue conversion and underpins management's revenue guidance, reducing near-term top-line volatility.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline and Deep Losses
A ~25% TTM revenue decline and a deeply negative net result (~$289M TTM) indicate the business has struggled to scale revenue while containing costs. Persistent losses weaken internal reinvestment capacity, depress returns on capital, and make sustainable profitability a multi-period execution challenge.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog and Contract Wins
A backlog of ~$282M, up ~14%, combined with recent classified and program wins provides multi-quarter revenue visibility in government contracting. This kind of backlog supports steadier revenue conversion and underpins management's revenue guidance, reducing near-term top-line volatility.
Read all positive factors
BigBearai Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBigBearai Holdings (BBAI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.88B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)36.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.27
Revenue Growth-20.34%
EPS Growth-8.67%
CountryUS
Employees630
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.84
Shares Outstanding478,949,460
10 Day Avg. Volume40,707,529
30 Day Avg. Volume36,329,341
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)3.17
Price to Sales (P/S)15.18
P/FCF Ratio-45.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit42.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.33Price Target Upside38.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$142.98M
BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and mana...
How the Company Makes Money
BigBear.ai primarily makes money by selling AI-enabled solutions and related services under customer contracts, with a substantial portion historically coming from U.S. government and defense-related agencies. Revenue is generally generated throug...
BigBearai Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights meaningful commercial momentum (large classified prime, multiple product and platform wins, backlog up ~14%), a substantial gross margin improvement (~1,300 bps to 34%), strong liquidity (~$131M) and strategic product and hiring progress. Offsetting this progress are material GAAP losses ($56.8M), a larger negative adjusted EBITDA (negative $9.9M), increased SG&A and R&D spending (SG&A up ≈29%, R&D up ≈31%), and ~ $36M of noncash charges related to debt conversion. Management affirmed full-year guidance ($135M–$165M) and emphasized go-to-market realignment and integration momentum. Overall, operational and commercial positives appear to outweigh the near-term financial drag, though profitability and expense discipline remain workstreams.Positive Updates
Revenue Stability with GenAI Contribution
Q1 revenue of $34.4M, essentially flat versus prior-year quarter, driven by increased revenue from GenAI platforms and products following the AppSage acquisition.
Negative Updates
Large Net Loss Remains
Net loss of $56.8M in Q1 2026, although improved from ~$62M in the comparable period (loss reduced by ~$5.2M, ≈8.4% improvement), the company remains significantly unprofitable on a GAAP basis.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Stability with GenAI Contribution
Q1 revenue of $34.4M, essentially flat versus prior-year quarter, driven by increased revenue from GenAI platforms and products following the AppSage acquisition.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management affirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $135–$165 million, citing Q1 results and recent bookings as the underpinning: Q1 revenue was $34.4 million, backlog rose 14% sequentially to $281.9 million, and the company closed with $131 million of cash and investments. Q1 gross margin expanded to 34% (up ~1,300 basis points YoY), adjusted EBITDA was negative $9.9 million (net loss $56.8 million vs. $62 million a year ago) with about $36 million of non‑cash charges, SG&A of $29.2 million and R&D of $5.5 million; management pointed to a new sole‑source intelligence contract with a ~$53 million ceiling and $7 million of combined Chicago O’Hare/Dallas Fort Worth travel contracts, plus momentum from the Assage and CargoSphere acquisitions, as drivers supporting the outlook.BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 127.35M | 127.67M | 158.24M | 155.16M | 155.01M | 145.58M |
| Gross Profit | 32.81M | 28.48M | 45.22M | 40.60M | 42.99M | 34.07M |
| EBITDA | -256.49M | -260.52M | -258.28M | -22.32M | -48.17M | -107.44M |
| Net Income | -288.69M | -293.91M | -295.55M | -70.66M | -111.37M | -123.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 861.66M | 894.55M | 343.78M | 199.91M | 195.31M | 383.32M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 100.70M | 87.13M | 50.14M | 32.56M | 12.63M | 68.90M |
| Total Debt | 24.11M | 24.33M | 146.41M | 200.59M | 200.28M | 194.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 71.26M | 282.68M | 347.49M | 267.25M | 233.18M | 260.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 790.40M | 611.87M | -3.71M | -67.33M | -37.87M | 122.37M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -56.35M | -42.48M | -49.23M | -22.14M | -49.69M | -20.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -53.29M | -41.95M | -38.12M | -18.31M | -48.92M | -19.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -572.34M | -606.68M | 2.82M | -3.83M | -5.23M | -863.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 624.59M | 691.31M | 52.46M | 42.06M | -103.14M | 180.86M |
BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
3.85
Price Trends
3.80
Positive
4.43
Negative
5.38
Negative
Market Momentum
0.07
Positive
45.66
Neutral
17.60
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.06, above the 50-day MA of 3.80, and below the 200-day MA of 5.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.60 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BBAI.
BigBearai Holdings Risk Analysis
BigBearai Holdings disclosed 116 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BigBearai Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $323.97B | 100.56 | 32.18% | ― | 67.71% | 283.83% | |
68 Neutral | $15.70B | 15.25 | 29.15% | 0.87% | 2.34% | 10.44% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $5.51B | 27.43 | 8.79% | ― | -6.92% | -44.47% | |
52 Neutral | $1.88B | -7.33 | -50.67% | ― | -20.34% | -8.67% | |
51 Neutral | $1.27B | -2.86 | -55.55% | ― | -16.22% | -41.59% |
* Technology Sector Average
BBAI
BigBearai Holdings
3.84
0.12
3.23%
LDOS
Leidos Holdings
125.96
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-19.98%
PSN
Parsons
50.95
-16.27
-24.20%
PLTR
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135.26
14.68
12.17%
AI
C3ai
8.83
-13.04
-59.63%
BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
BigBear.ai Stockholders Approve Doubling Authorized Common Shares
Positive
Apr 22, 2026
On April 21, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings reconvened a special stockholder meeting that had been adjourned from December 1, 2025, with 289,155,698 shares represented, or 60.61% of the company’s outstanding common stock, constituting a quorum fo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.