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BigBearai Holdings (BBAI)
NYSE:BBAI
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BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) AI Stock Analysis

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BBAI

BigBearai Holdings

(NYSE:BBAI)

Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(15.02%Upside)
BigBearai Holdings' overall stock score is driven by challenges in financial performance and valuation concerns, countered by strong technical indicators and a balanced earnings call. The most significant factor is the financial underperformance, necessitating improved profitability and cash management.
Positive Factors
Contracts
BigBear announced that it was awarded a $165 million, 5-year contract for the U.S. Army Global Force Information Management (GFIM) Production Services.
Earnings
Recent announcements drive optimism for 2H25 and 2026, with shares of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. increasing 52.6% through the first six months of 2025, well above the 2.5% decline in the Russell 2000 Index.
Partnerships
BigBear’s partnership with L3Harris as the exclusive provider of computer vision, predictive analytics, and event alerting analytics applications for L3Harris’s autonomous surface vessels remains a positive.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Shares of BigBear.ai are trading down over 20% after the company reported fourth-quarter results below consensus and issued 2025 guidance below expectations.
Market Risks
Risks include technology risks, dilution risk should the company raise additional capital given current cash burn, high levels of industry competition, M&A and integration risk, limited operating history, delisting risk, and cybersecurity risk given the nature of the business.
Revenue Outlook
The revenue outlook for 2025 of between $160.0M and $180.0M suggests only modest revenue growth, just 7.4% at the midpoint and compared to current Street estimates of $193.9M.

BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is a technology-driven company specializing in artificial intelligence and machine learning solutions. The company operates primarily in the sectors of cybersecurity, logistics, government, and commercial enterprises. BigBear.ai provides data-driven decision support systems, analytics, and operational tools that empower organizations to make informed decisions based on comprehensive data analysis and predictive modeling.
How the Company Makes MoneyBigBear.ai generates revenue through a combination of product sales, subscription-based software solutions, and professional services. Key revenue streams include licensing fees for their proprietary software platforms, which are designed to enhance decision-making capabilities by leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning. The company also earns income by providing consulting services aimed at integrating their AI solutions into clients' existing systems. Significant partnerships with government agencies and commercial enterprises contribute to BigBear.ai's earnings, particularly through long-term contracts and collaborative projects that require ongoing support and customization of their AI tools.

BigBearai Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Backlog
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Chart InsightsBigBear.ai's backlog has shown significant recovery, surging to $385 million by Q1 2025, a 30% year-over-year increase. This rebound is driven by strategic contracts in national security, notably with the Department of Defense. Despite financial challenges like increased net losses and negative adjusted EBITDA, the company's focus on innovation and international growth suggests potential for sustained momentum in securing critical infrastructure projects.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

BigBearai Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 121.26%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted growth in revenue, a strong cash position, and significant contract acquisition in national security, indicating positive company developments. However, increased net losses, negative adjusted EBITDA, and higher non-cash losses reflect challenges in financial performance. The highlights and lowlights are balanced, demonstrating both positive and negative aspects in the company's performance.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Revenue
Revenue for the quarter was $34.8 million, up 5% year-on-year compared to $33.1 million in the first quarter of 2024.
New Contract in National Security
Secured a significant new contract to deliver and maintain the Department of Defense Joint Staff J35's Orion Decision Support Platform.
Cash Position Improvement
Ended Q1 with $108 million in cash and cash equivalents, up from $81 million in Q1 of 2024 and $50 million at the end of 2024.
Backlog Growth
Backlog was $385 million at the end of the first quarter, up 30% and $89 million compared to Q1 of 2024.
Negative Updates
Increased Net Loss
Net loss in the first quarter of 2025 was $62 million compared to the net loss of $127.8 million in the first quarter of 2024, influenced by non-cash items.
Negative Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $7 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to negative $1.6 million in the first quarter of 2024.
Higher Non-Cash Losses
Higher non-cash losses on the increase in the fair value of derivatives from $23.8 million in Q1 of 2024 to $33.3 million in Q1 of 2025.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025 earnings call, BigBear.ai reaffirmed its full-year guidance despite a challenging business environment. The company reported a 5% year-over-year increase in revenue to $34.8 million, driven by contracts from the Department of Homeland Security and digital identity awards. Gross profit rose by 6% to $7.4 million, with a gross margin of 21.3% compared to 21.1% in Q1 2024. The adjusted gross margin, excluding equity compensation, stood at 28.6%. Despite a net loss of $62 million, down from $127.8 million in the previous year due to non-cash items, the company ended the quarter with a strong cash position of $108 million and a backlog of $385 million, up 30% year-over-year. While adjusted EBITDA was negative $7 million, BigBear.ai emphasized its strategic focus on innovation, international growth, and business alliances to capitalize on opportunities in national security and critical infrastructure.

BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BigBear.ai shows revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash generation. Although the balance sheet has improved, with a positive equity trend, negative cash flows and reliance on external financing indicate financial instability.
Income Statement
30
Negative
BigBearai Holdings shows a consistent increase in revenue over the years, with a 3.1% increase from 2023 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, the company has struggled with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT, EBITDA, and net income margins. The net profit margin for TTM is significantly negative, indicating challenges in cost management or operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The company's balance sheet reflects a high level of equity compared to total assets, with an equity ratio of 49.9% for TTM. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.05, suggesting limited leverage. The company has improved its stockholders' equity significantly from negative figures in previous years, indicating a positive trend in financial stability.
Cash Flow
25
Negative
BigBearai Holdings has shown negative operating and free cash flows consistently, which is a concern for liquidity. The free cash flow growth rate has been negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is not favorable, reflecting challenges in generating cash from core operations. Despite this, financing activities have provided substantial cash inflows, possibly from debt or equity financing.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue158.24M155.16M155.01M145.58M91.32M
Gross Profit45.22M40.60M42.99M34.07M21.68M
EBITDA-45.68M-37.57M-101.02M-107.44M-34.10K
Net Income-257.09M-60.37M-121.67M-123.55M-34.10K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets343.78M199.91M195.31M383.32M218.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments50.14M32.56M12.63M68.90M9.70M
Total Debt146.41M200.59M200.28M194.60M106.99M
Total Liabilities347.49M267.25M233.18M260.95M117.97M
Stockholders Equity-3.71M-67.33M-37.87M122.37M100.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-38.60M-22.14M-49.69M-20.43M922.00K
Operating Cash Flow-38.12M-18.31M-48.92M-19.78M1.20M
Investing Cash Flow2.82M-3.83M-5.23M-863.00K-184.99M
Financing Cash Flow52.46M42.06M-103.14M180.86M192.22M

BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price7.39
Price Trends
50DMA
5.34
Positive
100DMA
4.26
Positive
200DMA
3.91
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.69
Positive
RSI
57.90
Neutral
STOCH
59.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.30, above the 50-day MA of 5.34, and above the 200-day MA of 3.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BBAI.

BigBearai Holdings Risk Analysis

BigBearai Holdings disclosed 116 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BigBearai Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$1.53B28.6411.35%14.05%17.90%
74
Outperform
$643.54M27.2623.13%1.98%3.96%-31.63%
67
Neutral
$3.58B72.2510.80%47.78%74.61%
66
Neutral
$884.37M79.972.42%18.72%347.70%
63
Neutral
$34.72B5.19-11.20%1.67%5.59%-16.73%
60
Neutral
$3.50B-33.73%25.27%4.68%
52
Neutral
$2.15B-126.64%9.40%13.55%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BBAI
BigBearai Holdings
7.39
5.97
420.42%
HCKT
The Hackett Group
23.27
-2.32
-9.07%
GDYN
Grid Dynamics Holdings
10.46
-2.27
-17.83%
AI
C3ai
26.01
-1.39
-5.07%
PAY
Paymentus Holdings
28.62
7.26
33.99%
TASK
TaskUs
17.06
0.31
1.85%

BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
BigBear.ai Holdings Director Jeffrey Hart Resigns
Neutral
Jul 17, 2025

On July 14, 2025, Jeffrey Hart resigned from his position as Director of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. His resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company regarding its operations, policies, or practices. The company expressed gratitude for his service to both the company and its stockholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Buy with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
BigBear.ai Announces CFO Departure and Interim Appointment
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025

On June 6, 2025, BigBear.ai announced the departure of its Chief Financial Officer, Julie Peffer, who is leaving to pursue other opportunities. Her exit is not linked to any disagreements or financial issues within the company. Sean R. Ricker, previously the Chief Accounting Officer, has been appointed as the interim CFO. Ricker’s familiarity with BigBear.ai’s operations is expected to ensure a smooth transition as the company searches for a permanent replacement. Peffer’s tenure, beginning in June 2022, was marked by significant contributions to the company’s financial health, including capital fundraising and debt restructuring. Her departure package includes a severance payment and benefits, contingent on a separation agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
BigBear.ai Files New Prospectus for Share Sales
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

On May 10, 2024, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. entered into a Controlled Equity Offering sales agreement with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., allowing the company to sell shares of its common stock through the sales agent. By May 30, 2025, BigBear.ai had sold shares for gross proceeds of approximately $150 million. On June 2, 2025, the company filed a new prospectus with the SEC to continue the sales under the same terms, maintaining a maximum aggregate offering price of $150 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
BigBear.ai Holdings Concludes 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

On June 2, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. conducted its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where holders of 133,264,537 shares were present, fulfilling the quorum requirement. During the meeting, shareholders elected directors Sean Battle, Paul Fulchino, and Dorothy D. Hayes for a three-year term and ratified the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
BigBear.ai Announces Interest Payment in Stock
Neutral
May 15, 2025

On May 15, 2025, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. announced that it will pay the upcoming interest on its 6.0% Convertible Senior Secured Notes Due 2029 in shares of its common stock instead of cash. This decision, made in accordance with the terms of the Indenture, may impact the company’s cash flow management and could have implications for stakeholders regarding the company’s financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBAI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BigBearai Holdings stock, see the BBAI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 18, 2025