BigBearai Holdings (BBAI)
NYSE:BBAI
Top Page
BigBearai Holdings
(NYSE:BBAI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-13.04% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is held down primarily by weak fundamentals (shrinking revenue, very large losses, and ongoing cash burn) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Partially offsetting these are improved balance-sheet positioning and liquidity, plus FY2026 revenue growth guidance and strategic progress highlighted on the earnings call.
Positive Factors
Improved balance sheet & liquidity
The large 2025 capital raise, record liquidity and forced conversion of 2029 notes materially lower interest burden and long-term liabilities. This durable improvement increases financial flexibility for M&A, investment and contract working capital needs, reducing refinancing risk over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Revenue contraction and program concentration
Declining and volatile revenue, driven by lower Army program volumes, weakens scale economies and makes fixed-cost absorption harder. Persistent program concentration increases execution risk: losing or underperforming large government contracts can materially depress revenue and hinder consistent recovery over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved balance sheet & liquidity
The large 2025 capital raise, record liquidity and forced conversion of 2029 notes materially lower interest burden and long-term liabilities. This durable improvement increases financial flexibility for M&A, investment and contract working capital needs, reducing refinancing risk over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
BigBearai Holdings (BBAI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.64B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)35.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.55
Revenue Growth-6.95%
EPS Growth-53.69%
CountryUS
Employees630
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.01
Shares Outstanding476,056,580
10 Day Avg. Volume28,544,561
30 Day Avg. Volume35,639,660
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)3.17
Price to Sales (P/S)15.18
P/FCF Ratio-45.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit41.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.33Price Target Upside54.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$164.26M
BigBearai Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and mana...
How the Company Makes Money
BigBear.ai makes money primarily by delivering AI/analytics solutions and related services to customers under contract. Revenue is generally generated through (1) professional services tied to implementing, integrating, and operating AI-enabled sy...
BigBearai Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBigBearai Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced important strategic and financial progress (large capital raises, debt reduction, clean SOX attestation, catalytic acquisitions, and international partnerships) against continued operational weaknesses in the quarter (material revenue decline, steep margin compression, negative adjusted EBITDA, and a significant noncash asset impairment). Management emphasized investments to drive future growth and provided FY2026 revenue guidance (+~17%), but near-term profitability and execution risks remain as the business integrates acquisitions and pursues government opportunities.Positive Updates
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Strengthened
Raised $693,000,000 from ATM facilities and warrant exercises in 2025, significantly reduced debt, fully settled 2029 notes by forcing conversion (saving almost $9,000,000 of annualized interest), and reported record liquidity — described as the strongest financial position in company history.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue Decline
Fourth quarter revenue of $27,300,000, a year-over-year decrease of $16,500,000 (≈37.7% decline versus prior-year quarter), primarily driven by lower volume on Army programs.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Strengthened
Raised $693,000,000 from ATM facilities and warrant exercises in 2025, significantly reduced debt, fully settled 2029 notes by forcing conversion (saving almost $9,000,000 of annualized interest), and reported record liquidity — described as the strongest financial position in company history.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided full‑year 2026 revenue of $135 million to $165 million (about 17% growth versus full‑year 2025) — a range that incorporates the recent Assage and CargoSphere acquisitions — and said it will not provide adjusted EBITDA guidance given near‑term integration and investment plans; supporting actions cited on the call include $693 million raised in 2025 from ATM facilities and warrant exercises, forced conversion of the 2029 notes saving ~ $9 million of annualized interest through 2029, and an intent to settle the remaining $17 million of 2026 notes at maturity, while Q4 metrics referenced included revenue of $27.3 million (down $16.5 million YoY), Q4 net loss of $5.8 million (versus $138.2 million prior), Q4 adjusted EBITDA of negative $10.3 million (versus +$2.0 million prior), Q4 gross margin of 20.4% (versus 37.4% prior), and the company says it has record liquidity and significantly reduced debt.BigBearai Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 127.67M | 158.24M | 155.16M | 155.01M | 145.58M |
| Gross Profit | 28.48M | 45.22M | 40.60M | 42.99M | 34.07M |
| EBITDA | -260.52M | -258.28M | -22.32M | -48.17M | -107.44M |
| Net Income | -293.91M | -295.55M | -70.66M | -111.37M | -123.55M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 894.55M | 343.78M | 199.91M | 195.31M | 383.32M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 87.13M | 50.14M | 32.56M | 12.63M | 68.90M |
| Total Debt | 24.33M | 146.41M | 200.59M | 200.28M | 194.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 282.68M | 347.49M | 267.25M | 233.18M | 260.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 611.87M | -3.71M | -67.33M | -37.87M | 122.37M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -42.48M | -49.23M | -22.14M | -49.69M | -20.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -41.95M | -38.12M | -18.31M | -48.92M | -19.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -606.68M | 2.82M | -3.83M | -5.23M | -863.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 691.31M | 52.46M | 42.06M | -103.14M | 180.86M |
BigBearai Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
3.45
Price Trends
4.13
Negative
5.11
Negative
5.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.22
Negative
42.22
Neutral
70.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBAI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.65, below the 50-day MA of 4.13, and below the 200-day MA of 5.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BBAI.
BigBearai Holdings Risk Analysis
BigBearai Holdings disclosed 116 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BigBearai Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BigBearai Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $358.92B | 259.19 | 25.66% | ― | 47.23% | 116.33% | |
68 Neutral | $20.08B | 16.69 | 31.07% | 0.87% | 6.48% | 22.17% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $1.59B | 18.42 | 6.26% | ― | -4.86% | -25.15% | |
57 Neutral | $6.02B | 29.66 | 9.48% | ― | -0.24% | 389.03% | |
49 Neutral | $1.64B | -83.08 | -69.72% | ― | -6.95% | -53.69% | |
48 Neutral | $1.27B | -2.86 | -55.55% | ― | 1.84% | -27.74% |
* Technology Sector Average
BBAI
BigBearai Holdings
3.49
0.65
22.89%
ASGN
ASGN
37.63
-21.70
-36.58%
LDOS
Leidos Holdings
160.64
22.31
16.12%
PSN
Parsons
58.00
-5.27
-8.33%
PLTR
Palantir Technologies
140.76
52.17
58.89%
AI
C3ai
8.78
-11.52
-56.75%
BigBearai Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
BigBear.ai Announces Major Convertible Notes Debt Redemption
Positive
Jan 2, 2026
On January 2, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings announced that it had called for the redemption of all its 6.00% Convertible Senior Secured Notes due 2029, a move that is expected to eliminate about $125 million of debt through a mix of voluntary notehold...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.