tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Axon Enterprise (AXON)
NASDAQ:AXON

Axon Enterprise (AXON) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
3,473 Followers

Top Page

AX

Axon Enterprise

(NASDAQ:AXON)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$913.00
▲(11.53%Upside)
Axon's overall score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, driving confidence in its growth trajectory. However, the high valuation and technical indicators suggesting potential overbought conditions moderate the score. Strategic financial management will be key to sustaining momentum.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Axon reported strong Q1 results, growing 31% versus a 25% forecast, with full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance raised slightly.
Product Development
Axon's dedication to new product development, innovation, and digital first strategy is a critical differentiator to peers.
Strategic Partnerships
Axon's partnership with Skydio is well-positioned to target the growing DFR market, leveraging Axon software to manage Skydio drones and provide centralized video repositories.
Negative Factors
Contracted Bookings
Future contracted bookings of $9.9 billion dropped slightly from $10.1 billion in Q4, similar to last year.
Federal Headwinds
Positive comments on bookings strength and demand indicators add to confidence in the year, more than offsetting modest tariff and federal headwinds.

Axon Enterprise (AXON) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Axon Enterprise Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAxon Enterprise, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells conducted energy devices (CEDs) under the TASER brand in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, TASER, and Software and Sensors. The company also offers hardware and cloud-based software solutions that enable law enforcement to capture, securely store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. Its products include TASER 7, TASER X26P, TASER X2, TASER Consumer devices, and related cartridges; on-officer body cameras, Axon Fleet in-car systems, and other devices; Axon Evidence digital evidence management software; Axon Signal enabled devices, as well as hardware extended warranties; and Axon docks, cartridges, and batteries. It sells its products through its direct sales force, distribution partners, online store, and third-party resellers. Axon Enterprise, Inc. has a strategic partnership with Fusus, Inc. to expand the capabilities of Axon Respond and the Fusus Real Time Crime Center in the Cloud solution to provide agencies real-time operations situational awareness, including streamlined investigative workflows. The company was formerly known as TASER International, Inc. and changed its name to Axon Enterprise, Inc. in April 2017. Axon Enterprise, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
How the Company Makes MoneyAxon Enterprise generates revenue through multiple streams. The primary revenue source is the sale of its Taser weapons, which are widely used by law enforcement agencies globally. Additionally, Axon earns revenue from its Axon Cloud segment, which includes subscriptions to its digital evidence management software and related services. The company also makes money by selling body-worn cameras and other hardware devices, often bundled with software and service subscriptions in multi-year contracts. These contracts provide a recurring revenue model that is complemented by Axon's efforts to expand its product offerings and grow its customer base through strategic partnerships and continuous innovation in public safety technology.

Axon Enterprise Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Annual Recurring Revenue
Annual Recurring Revenue
Measures the predictable revenue generated from subscriptions or contracts, highlighting the stability and growth potential of the company's income stream.
Chart InsightsAxon's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) has shown robust growth, surpassing $1.1 billion, a 34% increase year-over-year. This growth is fueled by strong international demand and rapid adoption of new products like TASER 10. The company projects continued momentum with a 27% revenue growth forecast for 2025. Despite potential tariff impacts and federal market uncertainties, Axon remains confident in its expansion strategy, underpinned by strong bookings and a 123% Net Revenue Retention rate.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Axon Enterprise Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 36.02%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a largely positive view of Axon's performance, with significant revenue growth, strong bookings, and increased guidance for 2025. While there are some challenges related to tariffs and federal market uncertainty, the overall sentiment reflects confidence in continued growth and expansion.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Q1 Revenue and Growth
Axon reported first quarter revenue of $604 million, representing a 31% increase year-over-year. This marks the 13th consecutive quarter with over 25% growth.
Strong Bookings and Pipeline
Q1 bookings were strong, with a great indicator of momentum. The company expects another record for annual bookings with growth rates similar to last year.
Software and Services Growth
Software and Services revenue increased by 39% year-over-year to $263 million, driven by digital evidence management and premium add-ons.
TASER 10 Rapid Adoption
TASER 10 orders are pacing at 2x the rate of adoption compared to TASER 7, indicating strong market acceptance and growth potential.
International Expansion
International bookings are off to a strong start, with demand in regions such as Australia, Latin America, Canada, Asia, the UK, and Europe.
Adjusted EBITDA Margin and ARR
Axon delivered a 25.7% adjusted EBITDA margin with $1.1 billion in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), a 34% increase year-over-year.
Guidance Increase for 2025
Axon raised its revenue guidance for 2025 to a range of $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion, representing 27% annual growth at the midpoint.
Negative Updates
Tariff Impact on Margins
Tariffs are expected to impact the adjusted EBITDA margin guidance by approximately 50 basis points for the full year.
Federal Market Uncertainty
There is uncertainty within federal agencies due to ongoing budget discussions and reconciliation, impacting the volume of opportunities in the federal pipeline.
Company Guidance
During the call, Axon provided a detailed business outlook and guidance for fiscal year 2025. They reported first-quarter revenue of $604 million, a 31% year-over-year increase, marking their 13th consecutive quarter of over 25% growth. The company anticipates 2025 revenue to range between $2.6 billion and $2.7 billion, representing a 27% annual growth at the midpoint. They also project an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25%, with guidance raised to $650 million to $675 million. Their Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $1.1 billion, up 34% year-over-year, supported by a Net Revenue Retention (NRR) rate of 123%. Axon highlighted strong international demand and notable adoption rates for their new products, including TASER 10 and Draft One, with TASER 10 orders pacing at twice the rate of TASER 7 during its first two years. The company also addressed possible tariff impacts, estimating a 50 basis point effect on their full-year adjusted EBITDA margin.

Axon Enterprise Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Axon Enterprise presents a compelling financial profile characterized by significant revenue growth, strong gross margins, and effective cash flow management. While the balance sheet shows a manageable leverage level, the increase in debt warrants attention. The company's financials reflect a solid foundation with potential for further profitability enhancements, making it well-positioned within the Aerospace & Defense industry.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Axon Enterprise shows robust revenue growth with a steady increase from $863 million in 2021 to $2.23 billion in the TTM period ending March 2025. The company's gross profit margin remains strong at approximately 60% in recent periods, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is somewhat modest at around 14.8% for TTM, indicating room for improvement in profitability. Overall, the company's income statement displays a positive growth trajectory with solid profitability metrics.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet of Axon Enterprise demonstrates a healthy equity position with stockholders' equity amounting to $2.56 billion in the TTM period. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.80 suggests a balanced approach to leverage, while the equity ratio stands at a commendable 42%. However, the rise in total debt from $721 million in 2024 to over $2 billion in the TTM period requires monitoring. The company's overall balance sheet stability is strong, supported by substantial equity and manageable debt levels.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Axon Enterprise exhibits strong cash flow performance, with free cash flow increasing to $362.6 million in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating efficient cash generation relative to profits. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of approximately 1.09 reflects good cash conversion. The positive trend in operating cash flow and free cash flow highlights financial flexibility and operational efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.23B2.08B1.56B1.19B863.38M681.00M
Gross Profit1.35B1.24B955.38M728.64M540.91M416.33M
EBITDA229.45M437.03M194.63M227.62M-149.43M-475.00K
Net Income330.99M377.03M174.23M147.14M-60.02M-1.72M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.08B4.47B3.44B2.85B1.69B1.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.37B986.35M1.32B974.69M443.02M561.97M
Total Debt2.05B721.67M710.66M711.11M26.98M24.38M
Total Liabilities3.53B2.15B1.82B1.58B640.36M404.77M
Stockholders Equity2.56B2.33B1.61B1.27B1.05B976.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow362.59M329.53M128.99M179.25M74.22M-34.39M
Operating Cash Flow450.04M408.31M189.26M235.36M124.49M38.48M
Investing Cash Flow-1.02B-490.57M12.48M-830.97M252.56M-356.53M
Financing Cash Flow1.27B-45.44M41.31M598.10M-174.18M299.26M

Axon Enterprise Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price818.60
Price Trends
50DMA
707.68
Positive
100DMA
638.08
Positive
200DMA
585.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
24.48
Positive
RSI
71.56
Negative
STOCH
85.31
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXON, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 818.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 780.01, above the 50-day MA of 707.68, and above the 200-day MA of 585.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 24.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 71.56 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXON.

Axon Enterprise Risk Analysis

Axon Enterprise disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axon Enterprise reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Axon Enterprise Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
LMLMT
80
Outperform
$107.40B19.8082.55%2.88%3.12%-15.29%
GDGD
79
Outperform
$78.03B20.1818.23%2.06%14.11%17.65%
77
Outperform
$61.12B194.6015.13%32.48%24.29%
LHLHX
76
Outperform
$46.14B29.388.49%1.94%5.39%36.86%
NONOC
74
Outperform
$70.08B19.1625.41%1.90%0.61%77.28%
TXTXT
74
Outperform
$14.31B17.9511.70%0.10%0.57%-5.62%
68
Neutral
£2.96B10.478.40%3.16%2.88%-10.00%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AXON
Axon Enterprise
818.60
524.36
178.21%
GD
General Dynamics
290.74
6.53
2.30%
LHX
L3Harris Technologies
246.98
26.88
12.21%
LMT
Lockheed Martin
458.59
3.49
0.77%
NOC
Northrop Grumman
494.00
65.57
15.30%
TXT
Textron
80.34
-5.43
-6.33%

Axon Enterprise Corporate Events

Shareholder Meetings
Axon Enterprise Concludes 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

On May 29, 2025, Axon Enterprise, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where 89.8% of the company’s shares were voted. During the meeting, directors were elected for a one-year term, the compensation of named executive officers was approved in a non-binding advisory vote, and the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accountant for fiscal year 2025 was ratified.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXON) stock is a Buy with a $645.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Axon Enterprise stock, see the AXON Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025