Axon Enterprise (AXON)
NASDAQ:AXON
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Axon Enterprise
(NASDAQ:AXON)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$473.00
▲(10.02% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is anchored by solid but recently pressured financial performance (margin and free-cash-flow conversion deterioration alongside higher debt). Offsetting that, the latest earnings call was meaningfully positive with strong bookings momentum and bullish multi-year growth targets. Technicals and valuation are the primary constraints, with a longer-term downtrend and a very high P/E.
Positive Factors
Recurring revenue & ARR expansion
Axon’s shift toward subscription software and cloud services has produced durable, high‑quality recurring revenue (ARR >$1.3B) with 125% NRR. Strong retention and software growth reduce revenue cyclicality, increase lifetime value, and support predictable multi-year cash flows and upsell economics.
Negative Factors
Recent margin compression and operating loss
Profitability deterioration reflects stepped-up investments, product‑mix shifts toward lower‑margin offerings, and tariff pressures. If margins remain volatile, cash generation and return metrics may be impaired, constraining reinvestment capacity and making long‑term margin targets harder to achieve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring revenue & ARR expansion
Axon’s shift toward subscription software and cloud services has produced durable, high‑quality recurring revenue (ARR >$1.3B) with 125% NRR. Strong retention and software growth reduce revenue cyclicality, increase lifetime value, and support predictable multi-year cash flows and upsell economics.
Read all positive factors
Axon Enterprise (AXON) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$34.57B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)988.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3805.0
Beta (1Y)1.63
Revenue Growth31.77%
EPS Growth-15.34%
CountryUS
Employees5,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.15
Shares Outstanding80,397,675
10 Day Avg. Volume789,349
30 Day Avg. Volume988,290
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-5.39
Price to Book (P/B)14.08
Price to Sales (P/S)16.43
P/FCF Ratio608.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda134.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$722.00Price Target Upside67.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)7.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.59B
Axon Enterprise Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Axon Enterprise, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells conducted energy devices (CEDs) under the TASER brand in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, TASER, and Software and Sensors. The company also offers hard...
How the Company Makes Money
Axon makes money through a mix of hardware sales and recurring software/service revenue tied to long-term customer relationships, primarily with public sector agencies.
1) Hardware revenue (devices and sensors)
- Axon sells TASER devices and rela...
Axon Enterprise Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Annual Recurring Revenue
Measures the predictable revenue generated from subscriptions or contracts, highlighting the stability and growth potential of the company's income stream.
Measures the predictable revenue generated from subscriptions or contracts, highlighting the stability and growth potential of the company's income stream.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAxon Enterprise Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized broad and accelerating commercial momentum—record bookings (~$7.4B, +~46%), strong revenue growth (+39% to $797M), expanding ARR and NRR, and meaningful AI and international traction. Management also laid out ambitious 2026 guidance (27%–30% revenue growth) and 2028 targets (~$6B revenue, 28% adjusted EBITDA margin). Near‑term challenges include tariff impacts, product‑mix margin volatility, inventory and collection timing that reduced free cash flow conversion in 2025, and elevated investments that increased operating expenses. Regulatory/privacy risks and some timing variability from large deals were called out as risks. On balance, the positives—accelerating bookings, software/AI adoption, international expansion, and clear long‑term targets—outweigh the near‑term and operational headwinds.Positive Updates
Record bookings acceleration
2025 full-year bookings reached ~$7.4 billion, up ~46% year‑over‑year; Q4 bookings accelerated >50% year‑over‑year. Management cited bookings as a leading indicator and expects sustained demand into 2026.
Negative Updates
Gross margin pressure and product‑mix volatility
Adjusted gross margin was 61.1%, down sequentially due to the impact of global tariffs and increased mix from lower‑margin Platform Solutions. Management warned of quarter‑to‑quarter volatility from product mix as software mix increasingly flows through over time.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record bookings acceleration
2025 full-year bookings reached ~$7.4 billion, up ~46% year‑over‑year; Q4 bookings accelerated >50% year‑over‑year. Management cited bookings as a leading indicator and expects sustained demand into 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Axon guided to another strong year, forecasting 2026 revenue growth of 27%–30% year‑over‑year while maintaining an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5% (with Q1 seasonality expected to produce lower bookings, lower free‑cash‑flow conversion and a below‑target quarterly margin as the year ramps). Management has baked a 15% global tariff into the outlook, expects to rebound toward its long‑term free‑cash‑flow conversion target of ~60% (2025 was a low point), and plans continued investment in product and go‑to‑market initiatives. Looking further out, Axon’s 2028 targets call for approximately $6.0 billion of revenue and a ~28% adjusted EBITDA margin (roughly +250 bps of margin expansion versus the near term), a Rule‑of‑40 profile of 55%+, reduced annual dilution from stock‑based comp to <2.5%, and continued tuck‑in M&A rather than any material deal activity.Axon Enterprise Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.78B | 2.08B | 1.56B | 1.19B | 863.38M |
| Gross Profit | 1.66B | 1.24B | 955.45M | 728.64M | 531.09M |
| EBITDA | 196.37M | 437.03M | 183.37M | 227.62M | -117.11M |
| Net Income | 124.91M | 377.03M | 175.78M | 147.14M | -60.02M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.00B | 4.47B | 3.41B | 2.85B | 1.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.71B | 986.35M | 1.32B | 974.69M | 443.02M |
| Total Debt | 1.91B | 1.40B | 710.66M | 711.11M | 20.44M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.76B | 2.15B | 1.79B | 1.58B | 640.36M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.24B | 2.33B | 1.61B | 1.27B | 1.05B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 75.08M | 329.53M | 128.99M | 179.25M | 74.22M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 211.34M | 408.31M | 189.26M | 235.36M | 124.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -724.93M | -490.57M | 12.48M | -830.97M | 252.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.25B | -45.44M | 41.31M | 598.10M | -174.18M |
Axon Enterprise Technical Analysis
Negative
429.94
Price Trends
510.19
Negative
544.66
Negative
648.61
Negative
Market Momentum
-11.65
Positive
36.27
Neutral
12.57
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXON, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 429.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 519.38, below the 50-day MA of 510.19, and below the 200-day MA of 648.61, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -11.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AXON.
Axon Enterprise Risk Analysis
Axon Enterprise disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axon Enterprise reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Axon Enterprise Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $96.36B | 19.57 | 26.50% | 1.55% | -0.14% | 72.35% | |
75 Outperform | $64.06B | 35.53 | 8.28% | 1.61% | 2.83% | 47.00% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $34.57B | 3,805.02 | 4.32% | ― | 31.77% | -15.34% | |
52 Neutral | $13.44B | 606.55 | 1.20% | ― | 14.00% | 23.78% | |
49 Neutral | $81.14M | -10.87 | -12.81% | ― | -1.83% | -642.89% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AXON
Axon Enterprise
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-96.01
-18.25%
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Axon Enterprise Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Axon Enterprise Eliminates Remaining Convertible Notes, Streamlining Capital Structure
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
Axon Enterprise, Inc. redeemed $840,000 in principal of its 0.50% convertible senior notes due 2027 on February 10, 2026, paying cash equal to 100% of principal plus accrued interest. On February 11, 2026, the company also settled conversions of $...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.