Axon Enterprise (AXON)
NASDAQ:AXON
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Axon Enterprise
(NASDAQ:AXON)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$453.00
▲(12.45% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/08/26
The score is primarily held back by weaker recent financial quality (2025 margin and FCF compression with higher leverage) and bearish technicals, partially offset by a very strong earnings-call outlook (raised revenue guidance, reaffirmed profitability/FCF targets, and robust ARR/bookings momentum). Valuation remains premium (P/E ~50) with no dividend support, while the convertible-note elimination is a smaller incremental positive.
Positive Factors
Recurring revenue & ARR strength
Rapid ARR expansion and a 125% NRR indicate a sticky subscription base and strong in‑product expansion. That recurring revenue profile provides durable revenue visibility, supports long-term margin recovery as acquisition costs amortize, and underpins predictable cash flow over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Recent margin and FCF deterioration
Operating profit and net margin compression, plus a sharp drop in free cash flow, show recent strain from higher OpEx, inventory builds and cost pressures. Weaker cash conversion reduces financial flexibility, makes funding growth or M&A more dependent on external capital, and raises execution risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring revenue & ARR strength
Rapid ARR expansion and a 125% NRR indicate a sticky subscription base and strong in‑product expansion. That recurring revenue profile provides durable revenue visibility, supports long-term margin recovery as acquisition costs amortize, and underpins predictable cash flow over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Axon Enterprise (AXON) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$32.53B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)990.05K
Price to Earnings (P/E)50.3
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth33.95%
EPS Growth-40.50%
CountryUS
Employees5,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.58
Shares Outstanding80,572,205
10 Day Avg. Volume1,445,435
30 Day Avg. Volume990,048
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-5.39
Price to Book (P/B)14.08
Price to Sales (P/S)16.43
P/FCF Ratio608.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda175.92
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$670.47Price Target Upside66.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)7.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.59B
Axon Enterprise Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Axon Enterprise, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells conducted energy devices (CEDs) under the TASER brand in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, TASER, and Software and Sensors. The company also offers hard...
How the Company Makes Money
Axon makes money through a mix of hardware sales and recurring software/service revenue tied to long-term customer relationships, primarily with public sector agencies.
1) Hardware revenue (devices and sensors)
- Axon sells TASER devices and rela...
Axon Enterprise Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Annual Recurring Revenue
Measures the predictable revenue generated from subscriptions or contracts, highlighting the stability and growth potential of the company's income stream.
Measures the predictable revenue generated from subscriptions or contracts, highlighting the stability and growth potential of the company's income stream.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAxon Enterprise Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive: broad-based double-digit growth across revenue (+34%), ARR (+35%) and NRR (125%), rapid AI and Dedrone adoption (AI bookings +140%, AI revenue +700% YoY, Dedrone bookings +500%, revenue +300%+), upgraded guidance (30%–32% revenue growth) and sizable backlog ($14.3B, +44%). Management also proactively invested in inventory and reiterated margin and FCF targets. Key near-term challenges relate to inflationary component costs, inventory-driven cash timing, lower early-stage hardware margins (platform solutions/Dedrone) and execution risk for nascent businesses (Axon 911, Outpost). On balance, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, driven by accelerating product adoption, geographic expansion and strong bookings.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $807 million, up 34% year-over-year; marks ninth consecutive quarter with >30% growth.
Negative Updates
Inflationary and Component Cost Pressure
Management acknowledged tariffs and inflationary component costs (including memory) as factors considered in guidance; memory costs included in input assumptions even though impact to gross margin is claimed not material to break out.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $807 million, up 34% year-over-year; marks ninth consecutive quarter with >30% growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to +30%–32% growth and reiterated a full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin target of 25.5% (Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin ~25%), while expecting roughly $450M of free cash flow for the year and materially improved free‑cash‑flow conversion in H2; they also forecast full‑year stock‑based compensation of ~$590–$620M with average annual dilution targeted below 2.5%. Key operating metrics cited in support include Q1 revenue of $807M (+34% YoY), software & services $355M (+35%), connected devices $453M (+33%), AI product revenue >+700% YoY, ARR $1.5B (+35% YoY), net revenue retention 125%, future contracted bookings $14.3B (+44%), AI bookings +140% YoY and Dedrone bookings +500% YoY; guidance assumes continued tariffs/inflationary component costs (including memory), product‑mix shifts, and inventory investments with operating leverage expected in the back half of the year.Axon Enterprise Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.98B | 2.78B | 2.08B | 1.56B | 1.19B | 863.38M |
| Gross Profit | 1.77B | 1.66B | 1.24B | 955.45M | 728.64M | 531.09M |
| EBITDA | 192.60M | 196.37M | 437.03M | 183.37M | 227.62M | -117.11M |
| Net Income | 206.24M | 124.91M | 377.03M | 175.78M | 147.14M | -60.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.07B | 7.00B | 4.47B | 3.41B | 2.85B | 1.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 718.92M | 1.71B | 986.35M | 1.32B | 974.69M | 443.02M |
| Total Debt | 1.83B | 1.91B | 1.40B | 710.66M | 711.11M | 20.44M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.53B | 3.76B | 2.15B | 1.79B | 1.58B | 640.36M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.53B | 3.24B | 2.33B | 1.61B | 1.27B | 1.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.51M | 75.08M | 329.53M | 128.99M | 179.25M | 74.22M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 154.03M | 211.34M | 408.31M | 189.26M | 235.36M | 124.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -639.65M | -724.93M | -490.57M | 12.48M | -830.97M | 252.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -153.05M | 1.25B | -45.44M | 41.31M | 598.10M | -174.18M |
Axon Enterprise Technical Analysis
Negative
402.85
Price Trends
459.50
Negative
514.28
Negative
619.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-28.43
Negative
43.93
Neutral
75.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXON, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 402.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 414.51, below the 50-day MA of 459.50, and below the 200-day MA of 619.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -28.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AXON.
Axon Enterprise Risk Analysis
Axon Enterprise disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Axon Enterprise reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Axon Enterprise Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $78.05B | 27.70 | 28.05% | 1.55% | 4.95% | 26.05% | |
66 Neutral | $55.82B | 32.48 | 8.87% | 1.61% | 5.79% | 9.31% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $32.53B | 50.26 | 6.58% | ― | 33.95% | -40.50% | |
51 Neutral | $10.86B | 242.47 | 1.26% | ― | 21.82% | 34.38% | |
48 Neutral | $90.68M | -9.23 | -12.81% | ― | 2.05% | -2.27% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Axon Enterprise Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Axon Enterprise Eliminates Remaining Convertible Notes, Streamlining Capital Structure
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
Axon Enterprise, Inc. redeemed $840,000 in principal of its 0.50% convertible senior notes due 2027 on February 10, 2026, paying cash equal to 100% of principal plus accrued interest. On February 11, 2026, the company also settled conversions of $...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.