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AxoGen
(NASDAQ:AXGN)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
▲(26.61% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
AXGN scores above average primarily on strengthening fundamentals and outlook: improving balance-sheet risk, positive (though still developing) cash flow, and an earnings call featuring raised 2026 guidance with strong commercial momentum. Technicals add support with a clear uptrend and positive momentum. The main restraint is valuation/earnings quality—loss-making GAAP results and margin pressure from product mix and higher operating spend keep the overall score from moving higher.
Positive Factors
Consistent revenue growth and raised guidance
Sustained double-digit top-line growth and an upwardly revised FY2026 revenue target reflect durable demand and increasing adoption across indications. This expands addressable market penetration, supports scale economics, and gives management room to invest in commercial expansion over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Ongoing GAAP losses and negative net margin
Despite revenue growth and strong gross margins, persistent GAAP losses and a widening negative net margin limit shareholder returns and mean profitability improvements must outpace elevated operating spend to sustain valuation and fund long‑term initiatives without dilutive financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent revenue growth and raised guidance
Sustained double-digit top-line growth and an upwardly revised FY2026 revenue target reflect durable demand and increasing adoption across indications. This expands addressable market penetration, supports scale economics, and gives management room to invest in commercial expansion over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
AxoGen (AXGN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.27B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth23.57%
EPS Growth-543.50%
CountryUS
Employees622
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.67
Shares Outstanding53,761,513
10 Day Avg. Volume1,094,003
30 Day Avg. Volume1,433,456
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.01
Price to Book (P/B)11.70
Price to Sales (P/S)6.69
P/FCF Ratio-513.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$55.17Price Target Upside39.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$270.88M
AxoGen Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AxoGen, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, specializes in creating and distributing medical devices for the surgical repair of injured or severed peripheral nerves. Their comprehensive product portfolio offers several innovative solutions. The Ava...
How the Company Makes Money
AxoGen primarily makes money by selling peripheral nerve repair products to hospitals, surgery centers, and healthcare providers, generating revenue from product sales used in surgical procedures. Key revenue streams include (1) sales of Avance Ne...
AxoGen Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and commercial momentum: robust revenue growth (Q2 +23.1%), a pronounced acceleration in the Breast market (YTD +47%) that materially expanded Avance volume and adoption, growing active surgeon and account metrics, cash balance strength and raised revenue guidance. Offsetting this optimism are near-term margin pressures driven by an accelerated shift in product mix toward longer, higher-cost Avance grafts, increased operating expenses tied to commercial investment, and pending payer decisions (notably Aetna) that could further accelerate adoption but remain unquantified. Management outlined actionable plans (pricing and production efficiency initiatives) but emphasized these will take time to influence 2026 results. Overall, positives (strong top-line, guidance raise, evidence progress, healthy cash position and commercial momentum) outweigh the manageable operational and margin challenges disclosed.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth
Q2 2026 revenue of $69.7M, up 23.1% year-over-year; full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to at least $279M, implying at least 24% growth for the year.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Pressure and Product-Mix Impact
Q2 gross margin 72.7%, down 150 basis points year-over-year (74.2% in Q2 2025) and below internal plan. Shortfall driven mainly by faster-than-expected growth in Breast and higher-demand long-length Avance grafts (higher production cost), which exceeded internal expectations by ~14% in the quarter and impacted gross margin by ~1% versus plan.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth
Q2 2026 revenue of $69.7M, up 23.1% year-over-year; full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to at least $279M, implying at least 24% growth for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Axogen raised full‑year 2026 guidance, now expecting revenue growth of at least 24% (at least $279 million) with full‑year gross margin of at least 73% and remaining free cash flow positive; the company entered Q3 with $113.4 million in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and investments, had Q2 revenue of $69.7 million (up 23.1% YoY), Q2 gross margin of 72.7%, adjusted net income of $7.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $8.4 million (12.1% of revenue), and generated $4.1 million of free cash flow through the first half — guidance reflects momentum including Avance representing 65% of Q2 revenue (63% YTD), Breast growth up 47% YTD with ~215 active Breast programs and ~560 active Breast surgeons, combined Extremities/OMF/Head & Neck growth of ~15% YTD, a 172‑person commercial organization (15 net additions YTD), ~690 active high‑potential accounts (60% of revenue, 51% of growth YTD), and current commercial payer coverage of ~86% of U.S. covered lives (rising toward ~95% if Aetna approves).AxoGen Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 251.17M | 225.21M | 187.34M | 159.01M | 138.58M | 127.36M |
| Gross Profit | 187.26M | 167.35M | 141.98M | 121.87M | 108.81M | 104.43M |
| EBITDA | -14.77M | 192.00K | 6.08M | -13.33M | -23.47M | -20.89M |
| Net Income | -33.55M | -15.70M | -9.96M | -21.72M | -28.95M | -26.98M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 304.86M | 221.69M | 203.73M | 196.83M | 195.39M | 208.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 94.57M | 35.55M | 33.48M | 31.02M | 48.79M | 84.09M |
| Total Debt | 20.07M | 67.63M | 68.69M | 69.29M | 67.43M | 67.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 48.61M | 92.84M | 99.82M | 101.16M | 94.39M | 95.47M |
| Stockholders Equity | 256.26M | 128.85M | 103.91M | 95.67M | 101.00M | 112.55M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.53M | -2.93M | 11.00K | -20.63M | -37.32M | -41.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.32M | 812.00K | 4.54M | -5.72M | -16.07M | -13.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.17M | -5.32M | -10.30M | 19.25M | -3.20M | -23.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 67.23M | 10.50M | 2.29M | 1.95M | 1.79M | 20.45M |
AxoGen Technical Analysis
Positive
39.49
Price Trends
42.24
Positive
39.63
Positive
34.51
Positive
Market Momentum
0.59
Negative
62.98
Neutral
89.05
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.16, below the 50-day MA of 42.24, and above the 200-day MA of 34.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.05 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXGN.
AxoGen Risk Analysis
AxoGen disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AxoGen reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AxoGen Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.10B | 31.11 | 28.39% | ― | 1.52% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $2.27B | -62.55 | -17.88% | ― | 23.57% | -543.50% | |
63 Neutral | $787.64M | -45.78 | -8.23% | ― | 16.77% | 39.26% | |
57 Neutral | $1.34B | -13.94 | -68.29% | ― | 4.54% | 49.66% | |
55 Neutral | $476.98M | -7.84 | -14.05% | ― | 2.59% | 59.39% | |
53 Neutral | $1.17B | -16.65 | -8.91% | ― | 3.87% | 80.78% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AXGN
AxoGen
45.22
31.15
221.39%
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10.42
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TNDM
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19.59
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AVNS
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24.99
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132.68%
SIBN
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18.04
1.72
10.54%
BVS
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15.26
8.33
120.20%
AxoGen Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
AxoGen boosts outlook after strong second-quarter growth
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Axogen reported second-quarter 2026 results, with revenue rising 23.1% year on year to $69.7 million and gross margin easing to 72.7% amid a product mix shift driven by breast indication growth exceeding 50%. The quarter swung to...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AxoGen Shareholders Approve Directors, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
At its June 23, 2026 annual meeting, Axogen shareholders representing roughly 85% of outstanding stock voted on director elections, auditor ratification and executive pay, underscoring robust investor participation. Eight directors, including Paul...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.