AxoGen (AXGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $504.17M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 608.93K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.99
• Revenue Growth: 18.81%
• EPS Growth: 67.41%
• Country: US
• Employees: 451
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 41
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 45,544,044
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 809,065
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 608,932
• PEG Ratio: -2.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 630.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $24.50
• Price Target Upside: 121.32% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▼( -0.63% Downside)

AxoGen's stock score reflects a company experiencing financial recovery with strong revenue growth but facing profitability challenges. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, while valuation metrics highlight concerns. Positive earnings call insights provide some optimism, yet operational challenges remain.

Positive Factors

Market Position

AXGN is expected to experience higher growth in the second half of the year, reflecting typical historical patterns.

Revenue Growth

Management noted +17% y/y revenue growth was driven by enhanced sales productivity and commercial execution, which provides incremental confidence in the +15-20% LRP revenue CAGR.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

1Q25 GM of 71.9% fell 260bps vs. consensus 74.5% and Adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.9% fell 306bp vs. cons. 9.0%.

Operational Challenges

The 23% sell-off is attributed to disappointing gross margin, unexpected inventory write-offs, the departure of CFO Nir Naor, and slower-than-expected breast sales specialist hiring.

AxoGen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AxoGen, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and markets surgical solutions for physical damage or transection to peripheral nerves. The company's products include Avance Nerve Graft, a biologically active off-the-shelf processed human nerve allograft for bridging severed nerves without the comorbidities associated with a second surgical site; AxoGuard Nerve Connector, a porcine submucosa extracellular matrix (ECM) coaptation aid for tensionless repair of severed peripheral nerves; and AxoGuard Nerve Protector, a porcine submucosa ECM product that is used to wrap and protect damaged peripheral nerves, as well as reinforces the nerve reconstruction while preventing soft tissue attachments. Its products also comprise Axoguard Nerve Cap, a porcine submucosa ECM product that is used to protect a peripheral nerve end, as well as separates the nerve from the surrounding environment to reduce the development of symptomatic or painful neuroma; and Avive Soft Tissue Membrane, a processed human umbilical cord membrane that can be used as a resorbable soft tissue covering to separate tissues in the surgical bed. In addition, the company offers AxoTouch two point discriminator, a tool that is used for measuring the innervation density of surface area of the skin. It provides its products to hospitals, surgery centers, and military hospitals plastic reconstructive surgeons, orthopedic and plastic hand surgeons, and various oral and maxillofacial surgeons in the United States, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and other European countries, South Korea, and internationally. AxoGen, Inc. is headquartered in Alachua, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

AxoGen generates revenue primarily through the sale of its proprietary surgical products designed for peripheral nerve repair and protection. Key revenue streams include the sales of Avance Nerve Graft, AxoGuard Nerve Connector, and AxoGuard Nerve Protector, which are used by hospitals and surgical centers. The company also invests in research and development to expand its product offerings and enhance existing technologies. AxoGen's earnings are supported by strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and ongoing education initiatives aimed at increasing the adoption of its products in surgical procedures.

AxoGen Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AxoGen shows positive revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow generation. The balance sheet indicates potential financial instability with high leverage and negative equity. Improvements in operational efficiency and financial management are crucial for enhancing the company's financial health and long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

AxoGen has demonstrated a steady revenue growth trajectory with a compound annual growth rate over the past five years. However, the company continues to face challenges in achieving profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net profit margins. The gross profit margin remains strong, suggesting efficient cost management in production. Continued focus on reducing operating losses could enhance profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a challenging financial position with negative equity and increasing debt levels over time. The lack of reported equity in the latest period prevents calculation of key ratios like ROE and equity ratio, indicating potential financial instability. Historical data shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting leverage risk. Strengthening the balance sheet with improved equity and reduced debt could mitigate these risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows persistent negative free cash flow, highlighting cash management challenges. The absence of operating and free cash flow figures in the latest period limits comprehensive analysis. Historical data reflects negative operating cash flow to net income ratios, emphasizing the need for better cash flow management to support operational sustainability.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
187.34M	159.01M	138.58M	127.36M	112.30M
	Gross Profit
141.98M	127.87M	114.44M	104.43M	90.72M
	EBIT
-3.29M	-21.46M	-29.71M	-25.42M	-23.18M
	EBITDA
6.08M	-13.33M	-23.47M	-20.89M	-19.27M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-9.96M	-21.72M	-27.34M	-28.06M	-24.80M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
33.48M	31.02M	48.79M	84.09M	103.97M
	Total Assets
203.73M	196.83M	195.39M	208.02M	201.38M
	Total Debt
68.69M	69.29M	67.43M	67.45M	53.76M
	Net Debt
41.13M	38.27M	52.14M	34.70M	5.00M
	Total Liabilities
99.82M	101.16M	94.39M	95.47M	78.23M
	Stockholders Equity
103.91M	95.67M	101.00M	112.55M	123.15M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
11.00K	-20.63M	-37.32M	-41.80M	-32.22M
	Operating Cash Flow
4.54M	-5.72M	-16.07M	-13.40M	-9.63M
	Investing Cash Flow
-10.30M	19.25M	-3.20M	-23.65M	-16.96M
	Financing Cash Flow
2.29M	1.95M	1.79M	20.45M	40.47M

AxoGen Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.07
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.53, below the 50-day MA of 15.61, and below the 200-day MA of 15.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.79 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AXGN.

AxoGen Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SIBN	72 Outperform	$783.25M	―	-15.96%	―	22.60%	41.26%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.14B	3.03	-44.09%	2.83%	16.75%	-0.06%
AVNS	52 Neutral	$569.26M	45.80	-36.78%	―	1.34%	-530.36%
AXGN	52 Neutral	$504.17M	―	-7.22%	―	18.81%	67.41%
CBLL	52 Neutral	$599.25M	―	26.25%	―	―	―
OFIX	47 Neutral	$434.91M	―	-27.82%	―	5.85%	-8.92%
BVS	47 Neutral	$536.40M	―	-19.79%	―	8.60%	-42.76%

AxoGen Corporate Events

AxoGen Expects Minimal Impact from New Tariffs

On April 2, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced a plan to impose tariffs on imported goods into the United States. AxoGen, Inc. expects minimal impact from these tariffs and any retaliatory measures on its financials and business model, as the majority of its sales and manufacturing are domestic, and its reliance on imported materials is minimal.

AxoGen Unveils Strategic Priorities for 2025-2028

On March 4, 2025, AxoGen, Inc. released an updated corporate presentation outlining its strategic priorities for 2025-2028, including market development opportunities and financial guidance. The presentation highlights the company’s focus on expanding its market presence in nerve repair and its expectations for regulatory approvals, product innovation, and clinical evidence generation. AxoGen aims to strengthen its industry positioning by leveraging its extensive experience and partnerships, addressing the large and underserved nerve care market both in the U.S. and internationally.

AxoGen Reports Strong 2024 Financial Growth and FDA Progress

Axogen, Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, showing significant growth with a 15.1% increase in fourth-quarter revenue compared to the previous year and a 17.8% increase in full-year revenue. The company achieved a net income of $0.4 million for the quarter and an adjusted net income of $5.9 million for the full year. Axogen’s CEO, Michael Dale, expressed satisfaction with the results and highlighted the company’s strategic focus on expanding its work in peripheral nerve function restoration. The FDA accepted Axogen’s Biologics License Application for Avance® Nerve Graft, with anticipated approval in September 2025, which could further enhance the company’s market position.