AxoGen (AXGN)
NASDAQ:AXGN
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AxoGen
(NASDAQ:AXGN)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▼(-0.84% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (strong revenue growth, high gross margins, and sharply reduced debt) but is held back by ongoing GAAP losses and negative TTM free cash flow. The latest earnings call was constructive with ≥18% growth guidance and an expectation of full-year 2026 free-cash-flow positivity, while technicals are mixed with a softer near-term trend.
Positive Factors
Sustained revenue growth and commercial adoption
Multi-year top-line momentum and broad market uptake signal durable commercial traction. Double-digit growth across extremities, OMH&N and breast plus rising active surgeons and high-potential account productivity underpin repeatable procedure-driven revenue expansion over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Ongoing GAAP losses and negative free cash flow
Despite improved adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow, persistent TTM GAAP losses and negative FCF indicate the firm has not yet converted improved operating results into consistent owner‑level profitability and cash generation, leaving sensitivity to execution or reimbursement setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue growth and commercial adoption
Multi-year top-line momentum and broad market uptake signal durable commercial traction. Double-digit growth across extremities, OMH&N and breast plus rising active surgeons and high-potential account productivity underpin repeatable procedure-driven revenue expansion over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
AxoGen (AXGN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.73B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)801.93K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth18.72%
EPS Growth85.77%
CountryUS
Employees451
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding51,897,682
10 Day Avg. Volume462,742
30 Day Avg. Volume801,935
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.01
Price to Book (P/B)11.70
Price to Sales (P/S)6.69
P/FCF Ratio-513.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda193.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.29Price Target Upside21.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)$266.19M
AxoGen Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AxoGen, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and markets surgical solutions for physical damage or transection to peripheral nerves. The company's products include Avance Nerve Graft, a biologically active off-the-shelf processed human n...
How the Company Makes Money
AxoGen generates revenue primarily through the sale of its products, including Avance Nerve Graft and AxoGuard Nerve Connector, to hospitals and surgical centers across the United States. The company employs a direct sales force that engages with ...
AxoGen Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents materially positive operational and strategic progress: robust revenue growth (Q4 +21.3% YoY; FY +20.2% YoY), a strong capital raise and debt retirement, positive adjusted EBITDA and cash flow for the year, and a transformative FDA BLA approval that establishes Avance as the reference biologic. Near-term challenges include one-time BLA-related noncash charges, elevated operating expenses (notably R&D and G&A), a Q4 net loss and short-term gross margin pressure as the product mix shifts to the biologic. Management provided prudent guidance (≥18% revenue growth for 2026) and expects margin recovery in 2027 as scale and process improvements are implemented. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights given the regulatory milestone, healthy top-line growth, improved adjusted EBITDA and strengthened balance sheet, supporting a constructive outlook despite short-term cost pressure.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $59.9M, up 21.3% YoY; full year revenue $225.2M, up 20.2% YoY, driven by unit volume, mix and continued Avance adoption across target markets.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Decline and One-Time BLA Costs
Q4 gross margin was 74.1% vs 76.1% a year ago (≈ -2.0 percentage points); full year gross margin 74.3% vs 75.8% (-1.5 ppt). Gross profit was negatively impacted by $1.9M ($1.3M noncash) of one-time costs related to the BLA approval.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $59.9M, up 21.3% YoY; full year revenue $225.2M, up 20.2% YoY, driven by unit volume, mix and continued Avance adoption across target markets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to at least 18% revenue growth for full-year 2026 — implying revenue of at least $265.7 million (up from $225.2M in 2025, which grew 20.2% YoY) — with full-year gross margin targeted at 74%–76% (consistent with 2025) while noting anticipated product-cost pressure as Avance Biologic sales begin in Q2 2026; management expects to be free-cash-flow positive for the full year (despite higher cash burn in Q1), and reiterated commercial investments including growing the Breast sales force to ~30 reps and Extremities to ~130 reps, high-potential-account objectives of 60% of revenue growth coming from those accounts with 18% productivity improvement and activation of ≥100 surgeons, and 2026 training targets of 10 Extremities programs/200 surgeons, 6 Oral Maxillofacial & Head & Neck programs/100 surgeons, and 5 Breast programs/75 surgeon pairs; for context, 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $27.9M (12.4% margin), Q4 revenue was $59.9M (+21.3% YoY), cash and investments rose $6M to $45.5M year-end, and the company raised $133.3M net proceeds (using $69.7M to retire its term loan).AxoGen Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 225.21M | 187.34M | 159.01M | 138.58M | 127.36M |
| Gross Profit | 167.35M | 141.98M | 121.87M | 108.81M | 104.43M |
| EBITDA | 192.00K | 6.08M | -13.33M | -23.47M | -20.89M |
| Net Income | -15.70M | -9.96M | -21.72M | -28.95M | -26.98M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 221.69M | 203.73M | 196.83M | 195.39M | 208.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 35.55M | 33.48M | 31.02M | 48.79M | 84.09M |
| Total Debt | 19.24M | 68.69M | 69.29M | 67.43M | 67.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 92.84M | 99.82M | 101.16M | 94.39M | 95.47M |
| Stockholders Equity | 128.85M | 103.91M | 95.67M | 101.00M | 112.55M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.93M | 11.00K | -20.63M | -37.32M | -41.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 812.00K | 4.54M | -5.72M | -16.07M | -13.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.32M | -10.30M | 19.25M | -3.20M | -23.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 10.50M | 2.29M | 1.95M | 1.79M | 20.45M |
AxoGen Technical Analysis
Positive
33.28
Price Trends
32.60
Positive
30.64
Positive
22.55
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
56.79
Neutral
59.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.18, above the 50-day MA of 32.60, and above the 200-day MA of 22.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXGN.
AxoGen Risk Analysis
AxoGen disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AxoGen reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AxoGen Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $761.70M | 21.81 | 4.97% | ― | 1.58% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $1.73B | -95.98 | -13.44% | ― | 18.72% | 85.77% | |
56 Neutral | $570.17M | -45.38 | -12.91% | ― | 23.27% | 43.90% | |
54 Neutral | $641.75M | 35.21 | -8.56% | ― | 2.70% | -3090.51% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $478.92M | -6.56 | -20.38% | ― | 4.31% | 3.26% | |
45 Neutral | $1.66B | -7.22 | -141.98% | ― | 17.87% | -57.03% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AXGN
AxoGen
33.28
14.29
75.25%
OFIX
Orthofix Medical
11.93
-4.23
-26.18%
TNDM
Tandem Diabetes Care
24.26
4.45
22.46%
AVNS
Avanos Medical
13.80
-0.53
-3.70%
SIBN
SI-Bone
12.91
-1.08
-7.72%
BVS
Bioventus
9.16
0.07
0.77%
AxoGen Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AxoGen Posts Strong Growth and Raises Capital With Offering
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Axogen on February 24, 2026 reported that fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rose 21.3% year over year to $59.9 million and full-year revenue grew 20.2% to $225.2 million, driven by double-digit gains across extremities, oral maxillofacial and head and n...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
AxoGen Announces Equity Offering to Repay Term Loan
Positive
Jan 23, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Axogen entered into an underwriting agreement with Wells Fargo Securities and Mizuho Securities to sell 4,000,000 shares of its common stock at $31.00 per share, with a 30‑day option for underwriters to purchase an addit...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Axogen Announces Strong Preliminary Fourth-Quarter 2025 Revenue Growth
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Axogen reported preliminary unaudited results indicating that fourth-quarter 2025 revenue is expected to be about $59.9 million, up 21.3% year over year, while full-year 2025 revenue is projected at approximately $225.2 millio...
Executive/Board Changes
AxoGen Approves New CFO Compensation and Agreement
Neutral
Dec 5, 2025
On December 3, 2025, AxoGen, Inc.’s Board of Directors approved changes to the compensation package for Chief Financial Officer Lindsey Hartley. Effective January 1, 2026, her annual base salary will increase by 7%, and her target bonus oppo...
Product-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AxoGen Secures FDA Approval for Avance Nerve Scaffold
Positive
Dec 4, 2025
On December 3, 2025, Axogen announced that the FDA approved its Biologics License Application for Avance®, an acellular nerve scaffold for treating peripheral nerve discontinuities. This approval, under the FDA’s Accelerated Approval pa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.