AxoGen (AXGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.42B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 801.93K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.99
• Revenue Growth: 18.72%
• EPS Growth: 85.77%
• Country: US
• Employees: 451
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 46,122,288
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 462,742
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 801,935
• PEG Ratio: 1.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.89
• P/FCF Ratio: 66.31K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.64
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.21
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 42.06
• 1Y Price Target: $37.67
• Price Target Upside: 22.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(16.88% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals but mixed financial quality: strong revenue and gross-margin profile is tempered by weak cash flow trends and only modest/fragile profitability. Technically, AXGN shows a strong uptrend with supportive momentum indicators. Valuation remains a meaningful drag due to negative earnings and no dividend support, while earnings-call guidance and recent FDA/regulatory progress provide additional upside support.

Positive Factors

Regulatory approval (Avance biologic)

Securing FDA BLA approval is a structural shift from tissue to biologic status, strengthening regulatory protection and clinical credibility. This change supports broader commercial adoption, payer recognition, and long-term product differentiation versus tissue-only competitors, improving market positioning.

Sustainably high gross margins

Consistently high gross margins above 70% reflect a favorable product mix and scalable manufacturing economics. Sustainable margin levels provide durable operating leverage as revenues grow, enabling reinvestment into commercialization and clinical programs without immediate profitability dilution.

Robust revenue growth and adoption

Strong organic revenue growth and raised guidance signal expanding clinical adoption across target markets. Increased surgeon training and procedure uptake indicate durable commercial traction that should support sustained top-line expansion and continued leverage of a direct sales model over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Weak free cash flow trends

A large decline in free cash flow weakens the company's internal funding capacity for commercialization and confirmatory studies. Over months this increases the likelihood of external financing, which could dilute shareholders or constrain strategic flexibility if operating cash conversion does not improve.

Fragile overall profitability

Negative net margins and returns on equity highlight that high gross margins have not yet translated into sustainable bottom-line profitability. Persisting modest/fragile profitability risks longer payback on commercial investments and could pressure capital allocation until operating leverage and expense discipline consistently deliver positive net income.

Post-approval confirmatory obligations

The BLA approval’s reliance on confirmatory trials creates ongoing clinical, regulatory and funding obligations. Failure to meet post-approval endpoints or delays in studies could limit market access, affect reimbursement or curtail exclusivity benefits, making commercialization outcomes dependent on successful long-term evidence generation.

AxoGen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AxoGen, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and markets surgical solutions for physical damage or transection to peripheral nerves. The company's products include Avance Nerve Graft, a biologically active off-the-shelf processed human nerve allograft for bridging severed nerves without the comorbidities associated with a second surgical site; AxoGuard Nerve Connector, a porcine submucosa extracellular matrix (ECM) coaptation aid for tensionless repair of severed peripheral nerves; and AxoGuard Nerve Protector, a porcine submucosa ECM product that is used to wrap and protect damaged peripheral nerves, as well as reinforces the nerve reconstruction while preventing soft tissue attachments. Its products also comprise Axoguard Nerve Cap, a porcine submucosa ECM product that is used to protect a peripheral nerve end, as well as separates the nerve from the surrounding environment to reduce the development of symptomatic or painful neuroma; and Avive Soft Tissue Membrane, a processed human umbilical cord membrane that can be used as a resorbable soft tissue covering to separate tissues in the surgical bed. In addition, the company offers AxoTouch two point discriminator, a tool that is used for measuring the innervation density of surface area of the skin. It provides its products to hospitals, surgery centers, and military hospitals plastic reconstructive surgeons, orthopedic and plastic hand surgeons, and various oral and maxillofacial surgeons in the United States, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and other European countries, South Korea, and internationally. AxoGen, Inc. is headquartered in Alachua, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

AxoGen generates revenue primarily through the sale of its products, including Avance Nerve Graft and AxoGuard Nerve Connector, to hospitals and surgical centers across the United States. The company employs a direct sales force that engages with surgeons and healthcare providers to promote its products and educate them on the benefits and applications of nerve repair solutions. Key revenue streams also include reimbursement from insurance companies for the use of their products in surgical procedures. Additionally, AxoGen may enter into strategic partnerships with other medical device companies or research institutions to enhance product development and expand its market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

AxoGen Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AxoGen shows positive revenue growth and strong gross margins, indicating effective sales and cost management. However, profitability remains a concern with negative net income and return on equity. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but cash flow challenges persist, requiring attention to improve liquidity and cash generation.

Income Statement

AxoGen's income statement shows a positive revenue growth rate of 5.63% in the TTM, indicating a steady increase in sales. The gross profit margin remains strong at 74.76%, showcasing efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -0.98%, reflecting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved to 6.59% and 5.01% respectively, suggesting better operational efficiency compared to previous periods.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16 in the TTM, indicating low leverage and reduced financial risk. However, the return on equity is negative at -1.90%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 55.83%, suggesting a solid capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -42.25% in the TTM, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.23, suggesting limited cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.49, reflecting moderate cash conversion efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	214.71M	187.34M	159.01M	138.58M	127.36M	112.30M
Gross Profit	160.52M	141.98M	121.87M	108.81M	104.43M	90.72M
EBITDA	21.49M	6.08M	-13.33M	-23.47M	-20.89M	-19.27M
Net Income	-2.10M	-9.96M	-21.72M	-28.95M	-26.98M	-23.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	216.40M	203.73M	196.83M	195.39M	208.02M	201.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	35.79M	33.48M	31.02M	48.79M	84.09M	103.97M
Total Debt	67.91M	68.69M	69.29M	67.43M	67.45M	54.63M
Total Liabilities	95.59M	99.82M	101.16M	94.39M	95.47M	78.23M
Stockholders Equity	120.81M	103.91M	95.67M	101.00M	112.55M	123.15M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.85M	11.00K	-20.63M	-37.32M	-41.80M	-32.22M
Operating Cash Flow	6.51M	4.54M	-5.72M	-16.07M	-13.40M	-9.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-10.17M	-10.30M	19.25M	-3.20M	-23.65M	-16.96M
Financing Cash Flow	6.90M	2.29M	1.95M	1.79M	20.45M	40.47M

AxoGen Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 30.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.06, above the 50-day MA of 29.02, and above the 200-day MA of 18.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.95 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXGN.

AxoGen Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AXGN	66 Neutral	$1.42B	-628.57	-1.90%	―	18.72%	85.77%
BVS	64 Neutral	$640.59M	68.92	4.97%	―	1.58%	―
TNDM	61 Neutral	$1.42B	-6.84	-109.73%	―	17.87%	-57.03%
AVNS	59 Neutral	$550.99M	-1.17	-46.68%	―	2.70%	-3090.51%
SIBN	57 Neutral	$756.74M	-34.12	-12.91%	―	23.27%	43.90%
OFIX	55 Neutral	$567.07M	-4.71	-24.60%	―	4.31%	3.26%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

AxoGen Corporate Events

Axogen Announces Strong Preliminary Fourth-Quarter 2025 Revenue Growth

On January 12, 2026, Axogen reported preliminary unaudited results indicating that fourth-quarter 2025 revenue is expected to be about $59.9 million, up 21.3% year over year, while full-year 2025 revenue is projected at approximately $225.2 million, a 20.2% increase from 2024, supported by broad product portfolio demand, targeted commercial execution in extremities and head and neck markets, and growing adoption of its Resensation procedure. The company expects fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 gross margins above 74%, despite roughly $1.9 million in one-time costs tied to the U.S. FDA’s December 3, 2025 approval of Avance as a biologic therapeutic, most of which are non-cash stock-compensation charges, and it ended 2025 with an estimated $45.5 million in cash and investments—about $6 million more than a year earlier—signaling improved financial strength and reinforcing its strategic positioning in the peripheral nerve repair market; Axogen also posted an updated corporate presentation for use with investors on the same date.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXGN) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AxoGen stock, see the AXGN Stock Forecast page.

AxoGen Approves New CFO Compensation and Agreement

On December 3, 2025, AxoGen, Inc.’s Board of Directors approved changes to the compensation package for Chief Financial Officer Lindsey Hartley. Effective January 1, 2026, her annual base salary will increase by 7%, and her target bonus opportunity will rise from 50% to 60% of her salary. Additionally, an Amended and Restated Confidentiality, Intellectual Property, Non-Competition, and Non-Solicitation Agreement was signed, effective December 5, 2025, which includes a two-year post-employment non-competition covenant.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXGN) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AxoGen stock, see the AXGN Stock Forecast page.

AxoGen Secures FDA Approval for Avance Nerve Scaffold

On December 3, 2025, Axogen announced that the FDA approved its Biologics License Application for Avance®, an acellular nerve scaffold for treating peripheral nerve discontinuities. This approval, under the FDA’s Accelerated Approval pathway, marks a significant regulatory milestone for Axogen, transitioning Avance from a human tissue product to a biologic classification. This shift strengthens Axogen’s regulatory position and confirms Avance as a safe and effective therapeutic option, with commercial availability expected in early 2026. The approval is contingent upon confirmatory clinical studies, and Avance remains available under the current tissue framework until then.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXGN) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AxoGen stock, see the AXGN Stock Forecast page.

Axogen Reports Q3 2025 Revenue Growth of 23.5%

On October 29, 2025, Axogen, Inc. reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a revenue increase of 23.5% to $60.1 million compared to the same quarter in 2024. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance to at least 19% growth, or $222.8 million. The quarter saw significant developments, including new position statements from medical societies recognizing nerve allografts as standard practice and expanded coverage for nerve repair, which validate Axogen’s market strategy. The FDA’s anticipated approval of the Avance® Nerve Graft BLA by December 2025 is expected to further bolster the company’s position in the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXGN) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AxoGen stock, see the AXGN Stock Forecast page.