AxoGen (AXGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $651.54M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.57M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: 17.17%
• EPS Growth: 72.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 451
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 43
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 46,012,573
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,150,616
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,572,286
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 88.41
• 1Y Price Target: $23.00
• Price Target Upside: 54.36% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.00 ▲(0.67% Upside)

AxoGen's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and strategic execution, as highlighted in the earnings call, and positive technical momentum. However, profitability challenges and valuation concerns weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Regulatory Milestones

AXGN completed significant regulatory milestones related to the Avance Nerve Graft BLA, including a late-cycle meeting and inspections under the FDA’s Bioresearch Monitoring program.

Revenue and Market Penetration

The stock is expected to outperform supported by upside to the conservative guide and continued penetration into the nerve repair total addressable market.

Sales Growth

The company raised its FY25 sales growth guidance to at least 17%, indicating strong future sales expectations.

Negative Factors

Gross Margin and EBITDA

Lower-than-expected gross and Adjusted EBITDA in 1Q25 margin may prompt investor questions.

Inventory and Management Challenges

The 23% sell-off is attributed to disappointing gross margin, unexpected inventory write-offs, the departure of CFO Nir Naor, and slower-than-expected breast sales specialist hiring.

Manufacturing Costs

Gross margin missed the estimate due to higher manufacturing costs at their new facility, with lower overhead absorption and higher reserves/write-offs impacting COGS.

AxoGen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AxoGen, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and markets surgical solutions for physical damage or transection to peripheral nerves. The company's products include Avance Nerve Graft, a biologically active off-the-shelf processed human nerve allograft for bridging severed nerves without the comorbidities associated with a second surgical site; AxoGuard Nerve Connector, a porcine submucosa extracellular matrix (ECM) coaptation aid for tensionless repair of severed peripheral nerves; and AxoGuard Nerve Protector, a porcine submucosa ECM product that is used to wrap and protect damaged peripheral nerves, as well as reinforces the nerve reconstruction while preventing soft tissue attachments. Its products also comprise Axoguard Nerve Cap, a porcine submucosa ECM product that is used to protect a peripheral nerve end, as well as separates the nerve from the surrounding environment to reduce the development of symptomatic or painful neuroma; and Avive Soft Tissue Membrane, a processed human umbilical cord membrane that can be used as a resorbable soft tissue covering to separate tissues in the surgical bed. In addition, the company offers AxoTouch two point discriminator, a tool that is used for measuring the innervation density of surface area of the skin. It provides its products to hospitals, surgery centers, and military hospitals plastic reconstructive surgeons, orthopedic and plastic hand surgeons, and various oral and maxillofacial surgeons in the United States, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and other European countries, South Korea, and internationally. AxoGen, Inc. is headquartered in Alachua, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

AxoGen generates revenue primarily through the sale of its nerve repair products to hospitals and surgical centers. Their revenue model is based on the direct sales of their core products, which are used in various surgical procedures, particularly in the fields of orthopedics, plastic surgery, and neurosurgery. The company also benefits from reimbursement from insurance providers for its products, which makes them more accessible to healthcare providers and patients. Significant partnerships with healthcare institutions and participation in clinical studies further enhance their product visibility and credibility, contributing to increased sales. Additionally, AxoGen invests in research and development to innovate and expand its product offerings, aiming to capture a larger share of the growing market for nerve repair solutions.

AxoGen Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AxoGen's financial performance shows positive revenue growth and improved cash flow management, but profitability challenges persist with negative net income and return on equity. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, providing a solid foundation for future growth.

Income Statement

AxoGen's income statement shows a positive revenue growth trend with a 4.5% increase in TTM, indicating a steady demand for its products. However, the company is still facing profitability challenges, as evidenced by the negative net profit margin of -2.3% in TTM. The gross profit margin remains strong at 74.3%, suggesting efficient production processes. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, but remain low, indicating ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18 in TTM, indicating conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -4.4%, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a strong asset base relative to liabilities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 278.5% in TTM, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.29, showing moderate cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.77 suggests that cash flow is not yet fully supporting profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	203.27M	187.34M	159.01M	138.58M	127.36M	112.30M
Gross Profit	150.96M	141.98M	127.87M	114.44M	104.43M	90.72M
EBITDA	6.25M	6.08M	-13.33M	-23.47M	-20.89M	-19.27M
Net Income	-4.66M	-9.96M	-21.72M	-27.34M	-28.06M	-24.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	205.45M	203.73M	196.83M	195.39M	208.02M	201.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	35.92M	33.48M	31.02M	48.79M	84.09M	103.97M
Total Debt	68.19M	68.69M	69.29M	67.43M	67.45M	53.76M
Total Liabilities	93.18M	99.82M	101.16M	94.39M	95.47M	78.23M
Stockholders Equity	112.28M	103.91M	95.67M	101.00M	112.55M	123.15M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.54M	11.00K	-20.63M	-37.32M	-41.80M	-32.22M
Operating Cash Flow	7.19M	4.54M	-5.72M	-16.07M	-13.40M	-9.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-11.42M	-10.30M	19.25M	-3.20M	-23.65M	-16.96M
Financing Cash Flow	5.08M	2.29M	1.95M	1.79M	20.45M	40.47M

AxoGen Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.33, above the 50-day MA of 11.79, and above the 200-day MA of 14.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.25 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.36 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXGN.

AxoGen Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AXGN	69 Neutral	$651.54M	―	-4.48%	―	17.17%	72.68%
SIBN	61 Neutral	$660.06M	―	-14.18%	―	22.93%	43.83%
BVS	57 Neutral	$604.38M	―	-0.10%	―	5.08%	99.38%
OFIX	55 Neutral	$553.71M	―	-24.63%	―	4.84%	0.85%
CBLL	52 Neutral	$432.27M	―	26.25%	―	―	―
AVNS	49 Neutral	$500.68M	45.80	-46.17%	―	1.48%	-6091.13%
Sector *	47 Neutral	C$212.51M	-2.12	-24.82%	3.10%	19.48%	-0.09%

AxoGen Corporate Events

Axogen Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results

On August 5, 2025, Axogen, Inc. reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, showcasing a significant revenue increase of 18.3% compared to the same period in 2024. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance to at least 17% growth, or $219 million, reflecting strong market development strategies and commercial execution. The quarter saw broad-based revenue growth across all markets, including Extremities, Oral Maxillofacial & Head and Neck, and Breast. Additionally, Axogen expanded coverage and reimbursement for nerve repair, adding approximately 10 million new covered lives in 2025. The U.S. FDA accepted the company’s Biologics License Application for Avance® Nerve Graft, with a goal date for approval set for September 5, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXGN) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AxoGen stock, see the AXGN Stock Forecast page.

AxoGen Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting with Key Votes

On June 18, 2025, AxoGen, Inc. held its annual meeting of shareholders where five proposals were voted on, including the election of eight directors, ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as auditors, approval of executive compensation, amendment of the long-term incentive plan, and the frequency of future votes on executive compensation. The outcomes of these votes are expected to influence the company’s governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXGN) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AxoGen stock, see the AXGN Stock Forecast page.