AxoGen (AXGN)
NASDAQ:AXGN
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AxoGen
(NASDAQ:AXGN)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(9.09% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/28/26
AXGN scores as moderately attractive primarily due to improving financial trajectory (positive operating and free cash flow, strong gross margins) and supportive earnings-call outlook (double-digit growth guidance and expected full-year free-cash-flow positivity). Technicals add support with a clear uptrend and positive momentum. The main constraint on the score is continued GAAP losses (negative P/E) and near-term margin/expense pressure highlighted by management.
Positive Factors
Regulatory Exclusivity (Avance BLA)
The FDA BLA for Avance creates a durable competitive moat: 12 years of exclusivity and status as the only approved biologic for peripheral nerve discontinuities support durable pricing power, payer engagement, and preferential clinical adoption that can sustain market share and margins over years.
Negative Factors
Ongoing GAAP Losses and Negative FCF
Persistent GAAP losses and negative trailing free cash flow limit internal funding capacity and can erode equity if prolonged. Until sustained positive free cash flow and consistent GAAP profitability are achieved, the company may need external capital or must constrain investments, creating execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulatory Exclusivity (Avance BLA)
The FDA BLA for Avance creates a durable competitive moat: 12 years of exclusivity and status as the only approved biologic for peripheral nerve discontinuities support durable pricing power, payer engagement, and preferential clinical adoption that can sustain market share and margins over years.
Read all positive factors
AxoGen (AXGN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.24B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)801.93K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth22.41%
EPS Growth-292.36%
CountryUS
Employees451
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.63
Shares Outstanding53,177,822
10 Day Avg. Volume462,742
30 Day Avg. Volume801,935
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.01
Price to Book (P/B)11.70
Price to Sales (P/S)6.69
P/FCF Ratio-513.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.18
Enterprise Value/Ebitda381.92
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$50.14Price Target Upside30.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$270.89M
AxoGen Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AxoGen, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and markets surgical solutions for physical damage or transection to peripheral nerves. The company's products include Avance Nerve Graft, a biologically active off-the-shelf processed human n...
How the Company Makes Money
AxoGen primarily makes money by selling peripheral nerve repair products to hospitals, surgical centers, and healthcare providers for use in operative procedures. Revenue is largely generated from (1) implantable biologic and soft-tissue repair pr...
AxoGen Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents materially positive operational and strategic progress: robust revenue growth (Q4 +21.3% YoY; FY +20.2% YoY), a strong capital raise and debt retirement, positive adjusted EBITDA and cash flow for the year, and a transformative FDA BLA approval that establishes Avance as the reference biologic. Near-term challenges include one-time BLA-related noncash charges, elevated operating expenses (notably R&D and G&A), a Q4 net loss and short-term gross margin pressure as the product mix shifts to the biologic. Management provided prudent guidance (≥18% revenue growth for 2026) and expects margin recovery in 2027 as scale and process improvements are implemented. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights given the regulatory milestone, healthy top-line growth, improved adjusted EBITDA and strengthened balance sheet, supporting a constructive outlook despite short-term cost pressure.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $59.9M, up 21.3% YoY; full year revenue $225.2M, up 20.2% YoY, driven by unit volume, mix and continued Avance adoption across target markets.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Decline and One-Time BLA Costs
Q4 gross margin was 74.1% vs 76.1% a year ago (≈ -2.0 percentage points); full year gross margin 74.3% vs 75.8% (-1.5 ppt). Gross profit was negatively impacted by $1.9M ($1.3M noncash) of one-time costs related to the BLA approval.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $59.9M, up 21.3% YoY; full year revenue $225.2M, up 20.2% YoY, driven by unit volume, mix and continued Avance adoption across target markets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to at least 18% revenue growth for full-year 2026 — implying revenue of at least $265.7 million (up from $225.2M in 2025, which grew 20.2% YoY) — with full-year gross margin targeted at 74%–76% (consistent with 2025) while noting anticipated product-cost pressure as Avance Biologic sales begin in Q2 2026; management expects to be free-cash-flow positive for the full year (despite higher cash burn in Q1), and reiterated commercial investments including growing the Breast sales force to ~30 reps and Extremities to ~130 reps, high-potential-account objectives of 60% of revenue growth coming from those accounts with 18% productivity improvement and activation of ≥100 surgeons, and 2026 training targets of 10 Extremities programs/200 surgeons, 6 Oral Maxillofacial & Head & Neck programs/100 surgeons, and 5 Breast programs/75 surgeon pairs; for context, 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $27.9M (12.4% margin), Q4 revenue was $59.9M (+21.3% YoY), cash and investments rose $6M to $45.5M year-end, and the company raised $133.3M net proceeds (using $69.7M to retire its term loan).AxoGen Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 238.10M | 225.21M | 187.34M | 159.01M | 138.58M | 127.36M |
| Gross Profit | 178.61M | 167.35M | 141.98M | 121.87M | 108.81M | 104.43M |
| EBITDA | 5.69M | 192.00K | 6.08M | -13.33M | -23.47M | -20.89M |
| Net Income | -31.45M | -15.70M | -9.96M | -21.72M | -28.95M | -26.98M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 289.49M | 221.69M | 203.73M | 196.83M | 195.39M | 208.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 82.65M | 35.55M | 33.48M | 31.02M | 48.79M | 84.09M |
| Total Debt | 20.64M | 19.24M | 68.69M | 69.29M | 67.43M | 67.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 44.68M | 92.84M | 99.82M | 101.16M | 94.39M | 95.47M |
| Stockholders Equity | 244.81M | 128.85M | 103.91M | 95.67M | 101.00M | 112.55M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.93M | -2.93M | 11.00K | -20.63M | -37.32M | -41.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 15.56M | 812.00K | 4.54M | -5.72M | -16.07M | -13.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.62M | -5.32M | -10.30M | 19.25M | -3.20M | -23.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 67.62M | 10.50M | 2.29M | 1.95M | 1.79M | 20.45M |
AxoGen Technical Analysis
Positive
38.50
Price Trends
32.74
Positive
32.20
Positive
24.42
Positive
Market Momentum
1.10
Negative
67.03
Neutral
88.47
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.28, above the 50-day MA of 32.74, and above the 200-day MA of 24.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXGN.
AxoGen Risk Analysis
AxoGen disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AxoGen reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AxoGen Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $875.96M | 48.32 | 16.27% | ― | 1.52% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $2.24B | -21.82 | -20.74% | ― | 22.41% | -292.36% | |
58 Neutral | $1.16B | 31.87 | -8.56% | ― | 3.87% | 80.78% | |
56 Neutral | $542.87M | -130.15 | -11.00% | ― | 20.19% | 40.88% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $470.91M | -5.55 | -13.44% | ― | 2.59% | 59.39% | |
44 Neutral | $1.06B | -16.07 | -68.29% | ― | 4.54% | 49.66% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AXGN
AxoGen
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AxoGen Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
AxoGen Delivers Strong Q1 Growth and Raises 2026 Outlook
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 28, 2026, Axogen reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $61.5 million, a 26.6% increase over the prior-year period, with gross margin improving to 75.2%. Despite a GAAP net loss of $19.6 million, the company posted adjusted net income of ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AxoGen Posts Strong Growth and Raises Capital With Offering
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Axogen on February 24, 2026 reported that fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rose 21.3% year over year to $59.9 million and full-year revenue grew 20.2% to $225.2 million, driven by double-digit gains across extremities, oral maxillofacial and head and n...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.