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Advanced Info Service PCL (AVIFY)
OTHER OTC:AVIFY
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Advanced Info Service PCL
(OTC:AVIFY)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$13.00
â–²(24.16% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability, improving margins, and solid cash generation, tempered by leverage and modest revenue growth. Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend, though momentum looks somewhat stretched. Valuation is the main drag due to the higher P/E for a mature telecom, while the earnings call was broadly constructive but flagged slower 2026 growth and near-term margin pressure alongside shareholder returns.
Positive Factors
Margin expansion & high ROE
Substantial margin expansion and very high ROE indicate the business is extracting strong operating efficiency from its scale. Durable margins support reinvestment in networks, sustain dividends and provide a buffer versus cyclical revenue swings, underpinning medium-term profitability.
Robust cash generation and free cash flow
Consistently strong operating cash flow and sizable free cash flow create stable internal funding for CapEx, spectrum and JV stakes while supporting dividends and deleveraging. This cash generation capability enhances strategic optionality over the coming months.
Leading network scale and 5G/broadband momentum
Strong 5G adoption and broadband subscriber growth reflect durable structural demand and a wide distribution footprint. Scale in mobile and fixed services supports ARPU retention, efficient network economics and long‑term monetization of data and enterprise services.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage remains meaningfully elevated, which reduces financial flexibility and increases exposure to rising funding costs or macro stress. High debt levels constrain the pace of discretionary investments and make visible progress on deleveraging an important medium‑term priority.
Modest and slowing revenue growth
Lower top‑line guidance signals that revenue momentum is moderating and historically uneven growth persists. When revenue growth is modest, earnings rely more on margin gains and non‑core projects, raising execution risk and making sustained profit expansion harder.
Large special dividend and near-term cash commitments
A very large one‑time payout materially cuts retained earnings and equity headroom while JV and virtual bank capital needs add cash demands. Together these reduce the balance sheet cushion and could slow deleveraging or limit flexibility in the near term.
Advanced Info Service PCL (AVIFY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$37.05B
Dividend Yield2.67%
Average Volume (3M)1.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.6
Beta (1Y)0.15
Revenue Growth14.95%
EPS Growth40.15%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding2,974,209,700
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume1,248
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.47
Price to Book (P/B)7.64
Price to Sales (P/S)3.62
P/FCF Ratio11.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap35.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.74
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Advanced Info Service PCL Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAdvanced Info Service Public Company Limited, together its subsidiaries, provides mobile network, fixed broadband, and digital services primarily in Thailand. The company operates through three segments: Mobile Phone Services, Mobile Phone and Equipment Sales, and Datanet and Broadband Services. It is involved in the operation of cellular telephone networks in the frequency of 26 GHz, 700 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz, and 2600 MHz frequencies. The company also distributes handsets, as well as cash cards; and electronic money and electronic payment services. In addition, it provides international telephone service, broadcasting network, and television broadcasting services for various channels, as well as insurance brokerage services. Further, the company offers IT system, content aggregator, and billing and collection outsourcing services; call center services; and land and building rental services, as well as related facilities. Additionally, it provides internet data center, and internet and satellite uplink-downlink services for communications; distributes internet equipment; publishes telephone directories and advertising; offers mobile contents; and provides training and online advertising services. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
How the Company Makes MoneyAVIFY generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from mobile telecommunications services, which include prepaid and postpaid mobile subscriptions. The company earns money from voice calls, SMS, and mobile data services. Additionally, AVIFY capitalizes on value-added services such as mobile payment solutions, digital entertainment, and cloud services, which enhance customer engagement and loyalty. Significant partnerships with content providers and technology firms further contribute to its earnings by enabling AVIFY to offer bundled services and exclusive content to its subscribers. Furthermore, the company invests in infrastructure and technology advancements to maintain a competitive edge, ensuring sustained revenue growth.
Advanced Info Service PCL Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive operational and financial performance — strong profit growth, robust cash flow, high 5G adoption, broadband and retail momentum, ESG recognition, and a very shareholder-friendly capital return. Management is deliberately moderating revenue/EBITDA guidance for 2026 to reflect subdued macro conditions and near-term investments (IT, content, data centers, virtual bank) that will weigh on margins short term but are intended to build long-term growth foundations. While the large one-time special dividend materially reduces retained earnings and raises questions about near-term balance sheet optics, management emphasizes preserving investment-grade credit and financial flexibility.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Net Profit Growth
Net profit of THB 47.9 billion, up 37% year-on-year; normalized profit THB 46 billion (ex-FX and one-time tax item), up 32% year-on-year.
Record Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow Visibility
Operating cash flow approximately THB 100 billion; annual investments ~THB 50 billion leading to free cash flow of ~THB 50–60 billion after investments.
Generous Capital Return to Shareholders
Board approved ordinary dividend THB 15.30/share (95% full-year payout ratio) and a one-time special dividend THB 19/share (special dividend funded from retained earnings, >THB 50 billion total).
Mobile Data Consumption and 5G Adoption
Average data consumption >34 GB per subscriber (up 16% YoY); 5G subscribers reached 17.9 million (38% of base), growing nearly 50% YoY.
Broadband and Retail Momentum
Fixed broadband subscribers >5.2 million and broadband ARPU THB 530, both up >4% YoY; retail sales grew 15% YoY driven by shop renovation, staff training and improved channel/product mix.
Enterprise and Data Center Progress
Enterprise business delivered double-digit growth; GSA data center: Phase 01 commercialized, Phases 02 and 03 expected by 2027 to bring total capacity close to 200 MW.
Sustainability and Governance Recognition
Received MSCI ESG rating 'AA' (ESG leader) and Stock Exchange of Thailand 'AAA' ESG rating—the only Thai telecom with MSCI AA.
Prudent Capital & Investment Framework
Dividend policy maintained with minimum 70% NPAT payout; CapEx guidance for 2026 (ex-spectrum) THB 30–35 billion; CapEx allocation ~55–60% mobile, ~20% broadband, ~10% enterprise, ~15% IT; JV growth investments (data center/cloud) estimated THB 8–10 billion over next 2 years (AIS share).
Negative Updates
Lower Growth Guidance for 2026
Core service revenue guidance lowered to ~3%–5% (from 7% achieved last year); EBITDA guidance reduced to ~2%–4% (down from ~9% last year), with EBITDA growth guidance below revenue growth.
Short-Term Margin Pressure from Strategic Investments
Management expects elevated IT OpEx, content/entertainment costs and utilities in 2026 as they invest in IT modernization, entertainment content and network—these deliberate investments are cited as reasons for slower EBITDA growth.
One-Time Special Dividend Reduces Retained Earnings
Special dividend (>THB 50 billion) will materially reduce retained earnings and equity; management characterizes it as one-time but retained earnings will be 'fairly minimal' post-distribution.
Macro Headwinds and Softer Near-Term Demand
Management cites subdued macroeconomic outlook with GDP expectations below ~2% and softer consumer sentiment, contributing to more conservative 2026 guidance.
Near-Term Softness in Net Adds
Quarterly net adds were softer (fixed broadband net adds impacted) due to temporary resource allocation to flood relief in Southern Thailand and other timing effects.
Data Center JV Earnings Lag Near Term
GSA Phases 02 and 03 only expected online around 2027; management expects limited contribution to bottom-line share profit in the next ~3 years while projects ramp.
Incremental Capital Commitments Beyond Core CapEx
JV contributions (THB 8–10 billion over next 2 years) and virtual bank paid-up capital (THB 5–10 billion depending on stage) are additional to the stated core CapEx guidance, increasing near-term cash commitments.
Uncertainty on Tax Loss Utilization and Other Details
Remaining tax loss carryforwards (~THB 15 billion) and their utilization timing were referenced but specific utilization plans were not detailed; several JV financing details were described as project- or stage-dependent.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 core service revenue growth of about 3–5% and EBITDA growth of about 2–4%, with CapEx (ex‑spectrum) of THB 30–35bn (allocation ~55–60% mobile, ~20% broadband, ~10% enterprise, ~15% IT/others) and a medium‑term CapEx target around 15% of revenue; operating cash flow is ~THB 100bn, annual investments ~THB 50bn (CapEx, spectrum and JV), implying free cash flow of roughly THB 50–60bn after investment and an expectation that net debt/EBITDA will gradually decline while preserving an investment‑grade profile. The Board approved an ordinary dividend of THB 15.30/share (c. 95% full‑year payout) and a one‑time special dividend of THB 19/share (ordinary dividend remains the priority; minimum payout policy ≥70% of NPAT); the special dividend is funded from operating cash flow. Operational and growth metrics cited include data consumption >34 GB/subscriber (up 16% YoY), 5G subscribers 17.9 million (38% penetration, ~50% YoY growth), fixed broadband >5.2 million subs with ARPU THB 530 (both >4% YoY), GSA data‑center Phase 1 commercialized with Phases 2–3 expected by 2027 bringing capacity close to 200 MW, planned JV funding of ~THB 8–10bn over the next ~2 years, virtual bank initial paid‑in ~THB 5bn, remaining tax loss carryforwards ~THB 15bn (c. THB 3bn tax benefit over 2–3 years), and ESG ratings of MSCI AA and SET AAA.Advanced Info Service PCL Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and margin expansion (net margin ~21.2% in 2025 vs. ~16.4% in 2024) alongside solid operating cash flow and consistently positive free cash flow. The main constraint is a debt-heavy balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~1.79) and modest/uneven top-line growth, which reduces flexibility if conditions worsen.Income Statement
Revenue has grown steadily over 2021–2025 (2025 up ~1.2% vs. 2024; 2024 up ~13.1% vs. 2023), while profitability strengthened meaningfully: net margin expanded to ~21.2% in 2025 from ~16.4% in 2024, and operating margin improved to ~28.9% from ~24.4%. Gross margin also improved to ~39.7% in 2025 (vs. ~36.6% in 2024). The main weakness is that top-line growth is modest in the latest year and has been uneven historically (including a decline in 2020), suggesting the earnings improvement is doing more of the work than revenue growth.84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains a key constraint: debt is high relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~1.79 in 2025), though it has improved from elevated levels in 2023–2024 (~2.68 and ~2.20). Equity has grown alongside strong profitability, driving a very high return on equity (~44.7% in 2025), which is a notable strength. The trade-off is that the capital structure still relies heavily on debt, which can reduce flexibility if industry conditions or funding costs worsen.63
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong: operating cash flow was ~120.8B in 2025 and comfortably covered accounting earnings (cash flow to net income ~1.18). Free cash flow is sizable (~73.7B in 2025) and consistently positive across the period, supporting dividends, buybacks, or deleveraging. The main weakness is volatility in free cash flow growth (down ~13.0% in 2025 after a small increase in 2024) and free cash flow converting to a moderate share of net income in 2025 (~0.61), down from 2024 (~0.67).76
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 226.26B | 213.57B | 188.87B | 185.48B | 181.33B |
| Gross Profit | 89.80B | 78.18B | 63.49B | 59.31B | 59.88B |
| EBITDA | 123.18B | 113.37B | 94.88B | 90.23B | 90.56B |
| Net Income | 47.89B | 35.08B | 29.09B | 26.01B | 26.92B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 420.27B | 431.43B | 454.44B | 337.04B | 356.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.97B | 22.61B | 14.74B | 10.04B | 14.33B |
| Total Debt | 192.21B | 213.63B | 242.38B | 128.42B | 138.96B |
| Total Liabilities | 312.99B | 334.11B | 363.76B | 251.23B | 274.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 107.18B | 97.22B | 90.58B | 85.69B | 81.70B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 73.67B | 78.61B | 36.65B | 38.05B | 41.34B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 120.81B | 116.62B | 87.64B | 81.40B | 86.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -47.24B | -36.93B | -77.99B | -43.00B | -45.35B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -70.83B | -71.83B | -3.93B | -42.14B | -46.96B |
Advanced Info Service PCL Technical Analysis
Positive
10.47
Price Trends
10.69
Positive
10.03
Positive
9.44
Positive
Market Momentum
0.54
Negative
70.44
Negative
87.01
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVIFY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.65, below the 50-day MA of 10.69, and above the 200-day MA of 9.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.44 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVIFY.
Advanced Info Service PCL Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $25.14B | 23.84 | 8.36% | 5.03% | -3.16% | 4.70% | |
75 Outperform | $20.30B | 15.49 | 15.54% | 6.14% | -5.21% | -7.45% | |
73 Outperform | $37.05B | 25.56 | 45.87% | 2.67% | 14.95% | 40.15% | |
72 Outperform | $32.87B | 26.68 | 10.10% | 3.15% | 5.74% | 7.12% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
58 Neutral | $36.18B | -8.50 | -7.08% | 3.77% | 19.67% | -278.51% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
AVIFY
Advanced Info Service PCL
12.43
3.94
46.46%
CHT
Chunghwa Telecom Co
42.83
5.48
14.67%
TLK
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
20.88
5.71
37.61%
VIV
Telefonica Brasil
15.49
6.71
76.42%
VOD
Vodafone
15.66
7.75
97.98%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.