Universal Store Holdings Ltd. (UNI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$715.81M
• Dividend Yield: 4.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 348.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.99
• Revenue Growth: 15.51%
• EPS Growth: -32.98%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 1,065
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 76,720,810
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 239,076
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 348,823
• PEG Ratio: -0.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$10.64
• Price Target Upside: 31.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$375.08M

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$10.00 ▲(24.07% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 11/21/25
• Date: Action: Downgraded 11/21/25

The overall stock score of 58 reflects a combination of strong financial performance and bearish technical indicators. While the company shows potential for growth, the current market momentum is negative, and the valuation suggests the stock may be overvalued. Investors should be cautious of cost pressures and monitor technical signals for potential entry points.

Positive Factors

Consistent revenue growth

Sustained revenue expansion (latest year +6.13%) indicates steady product demand and effective multi-channel sales execution. Over 2-6 months this supports durability of cash generation and scale benefits in procurement, helping absorb cost inflation and fund selective reinvestment in the store and e-commerce network.

High gross profit margin

A 61.11% gross margin reflects a favorable product mix with private-label and branded assortments that preserve markup. This structural margin advantage provides lasting buffer against input cost swings, supports funding of marketing and omni-channel operations, and underpins long-term margin sustainability.

Solid operating cash generation and conversion

Operating cash coverage of 1.15 and FCF-to-net-income near 0.86 show the business reliably converts earnings into cash. This durable cash generation supports ongoing capex, inventory funding and debt servicing without depending on external financing, preserving strategic flexibility over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Declining net profit margin

A fall from 11.90% to 6.98% signals rising operating or SG&A pressures that erode bottom-line profitability. If structural, this reduces retained earnings and limits reinvestment capacity, making it harder to fund growth initiatives or withstand prolonged cost inflation over the next several quarters.

Increased leverage and lower ROE

Higher leverage (D/E 0.61) combined with a material ROE drop implies returns are compressing while financial obligations rise. This weakens resilience to demand shocks and increases interest sensitivity, constraining capital allocation and elevating refinancing or covenant risk across a multi-quarter horizon.

Declining free cash flow

A 7.51% decline in FCF reduces the cushion for capex, inventory cycles and debt paydown. Persisting FCF erosion would force tougher trade-offs between growth investment and deleveraging, limiting the company's ability to sustain expansion or respond to competitive pressures over the medium term.

Universal Store Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Universal Store Holdings Limited operates as a specialty retailer of casual men's and women's fashion, shoes, accessories, lifestyle, and gifting in Australia. The company's products include tops and shirts, overshirts, t-shirts and tank tops, jeans, hoodies and sweaters, dresses, sets and coordinates, jumpers and knits, coats and jackets, pants, skirts, shorts, underwear, polos, singlets, swimwear, and denim products; boots, Havaianas, heels, shoes, slides and sandals, sneakers, socks, and shoe care and laces; kids shoes; and accessories, such as bags, belts, face masks, hair and beauty products, hats, sunglasses and eyewear, jewellery, headwear, wallets, keyrings, and watches. It offers its products through 78 physical stores, as well as online stores. The company was formerly known as US Holdings Pty Ltd. and changed its name to Universal Store Holdings Limited in October 2020. Universal Store Holdings Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Nundah, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Universal Store generates revenue primarily through the sale of clothing, footwear, and accessories in its physical retail locations and online store. The company employs a multi-channel retail strategy, allowing customers to shop through its e-commerce platform while also visiting brick-and-mortar stores. Key revenue streams include direct sales of branded merchandise, seasonal promotions, and collaborations with popular fashion labels. Additionally, Universal Store benefits from strategic partnerships with various brands, enhancing its product offerings and attracting a loyal customer base. The company's focus on the youth market and its ability to adapt to fashion trends play crucial roles in driving sales and profitability.

Universal Store Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Universal Store Holdings Ltd. exhibits strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with robust gross profit and EBIT margins. However, the decrease in net profit margin and free cash flow, along with increased leverage, suggests cost pressures and potential financial risks.

Income Statement

Universal Store Holdings Ltd. has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable 6.13% increase in the latest year. The gross profit margin remains strong at 61.11%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 6.98% from 11.90% the previous year, suggesting increased expenses or cost pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.61 indicates moderate leverage, which is manageable but has increased from the previous year. The return on equity is solid at 15.99%, though it has decreased from 22.53% in the prior year, suggesting a decline in profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio of 50.66% shows a balanced capital structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong, with a coverage ratio of 1.15, indicating sufficient cash generation to cover net income. However, free cash flow has decreased by 7.51%, which could impact future investments or debt repayments. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.86 suggests a good conversion of earnings to cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	284.48M	333.27M	288.52M	263.05M	207.97M	210.82M
Gross Profit	106.69M	203.66M	173.53M	67.67M	121.28M	123.80M
EBITDA	75.64M	60.65M	83.70M	69.10M	54.67M	62.57M
Net Income	34.25M	23.26M	34.34M	23.57M	20.57M	24.37M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	307.06M	286.98M	279.10M	288.34M	203.55M	204.19M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	38.39M	17.16M	29.27M	21.44M	38.77M	33.41M
Total Debt	138.41M	88.44M	76.21M	99.08M	63.42M	69.79M
Total Liabilities	145.81M	141.59M	126.69M	151.90M	92.04M	101.21M
Stockholders Equity	161.24M	145.40M	152.40M	136.44M	111.51M	102.98M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	56.25M	67.65M	58.74M	40.74M	34.29M	44.17M
Operating Cash Flow	66.17M	78.77M	67.51M	50.97M	42.03M	47.47M
Investing Cash Flow	-13.34M	-13.84M	-10.55M	-26.13M	-6.79M	-2.94M
Financing Cash Flow	-61.52M	-77.03M	-49.13M	-42.16M	-29.88M	-52.95M

Universal Store Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:UNI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.54, below the 50-day MA of 8.21, and above the 200-day MA of 8.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.14 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:UNI.

Universal Store Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AX1	72 Outperform	AU$667.09M	18.01	12.90%	7.33%	1.58%	-4.71%
STP	66 Neutral	AU$49.12M	-12.10	24.28%	20.30%	2.76%	1.93%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
ADH	60 Neutral	AU$331.62M	17.47	11.70%	5.85%	3.99%	-18.35%
UNI	58 Neutral	AU$715.81M	17.92	15.62%	4.70%	15.51%	-32.98%
CCX	46 Neutral	AU$42.37M	-7.64	-24.80%	―	2.35%	95.03%
MYR	42 Neutral	AU$604.72M	-2.12	-36.66%	6.38%	13.78%	-413.50%

Universal Store Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events

Universal Store Sets Date for H1 FY26 Results and Investor Briefing

Universal Store Holdings will release its half-year results for the period ended 31 December 2025 before market open on 19 February 2026, signalling an upcoming update on trading performance in the key youth fashion segment. Management, including CEO Alice Barbery and CFO Ethan Orsini, will brief investors via a webinar on the same day, with live Q&A and a replay available, underscoring the company’s focus on maintaining transparent engagement with shareholders and the broader market ahead of what may be a closely watched earnings disclosure for the discretionary retail sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:UNI) stock is a Buy with a A$10.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Universal Store Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:UNI Stock Forecast page.

UniSuper Exits Substantial Holder Position in Universal Store Holdings

UniSuper Limited, acting as trustee for UniSuper and through UniSuper Management Pty Limited, has notified that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Universal Store Holdings Ltd as of 7 January 2026, following changes in its relevant interest in the company’s ordinary fully paid shares. The shift below the substantial holding threshold follows on-market transactions, including a significant indirect on-market sale of 221,519 shares partially offset by a smaller indirect purchase of 9,380 shares via managed funds, altering UniSuper’s voting power and potentially signalling a recalibration of institutional investment exposure to the youth fashion retailer.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:UNI) stock is a Buy with a A$10.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Universal Store Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:UNI Stock Forecast page.

Pinnacle Investment Management Exits Substantial Holding in Universal Store Holdings

Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited and its subsidiaries have lodged a notice stating they have ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Universal Store Holdings Ltd as of 19 December 2025. The change signals a reduction of Pinnacle’s voting interest below the substantial holding threshold, potentially altering Universal Store’s share register dynamics and reducing the influence of a formerly significant institutional investor, though no changes in associate relationships were disclosed.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:UNI) stock is a Buy with a A$10.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Universal Store Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:UNI Stock Forecast page.

Pinnacle Investment Management Ceases Substantial Holding in Universal Store Holdings

Universal Store Holdings Ltd. has announced that Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of December 10, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact the company’s shareholder structure and influence its market dynamics, potentially affecting investor perceptions and future strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:UNI) stock is a Buy with a A$10.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Universal Store Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:UNI Stock Forecast page.