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National Australia Bank Limited (AU:NAB)
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National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:NAB

National Australia Bank Limited

(Sydney:NAB)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
AU$47.00
â–²(16.57% Upside)
The overall stock score reflects a balanced view of National Australia Bank Limited's financial performance, technical indicators, and valuation. The most significant factors are the robust revenue generation and stable equity levels, offset by high leverage and declining profitability margins. The technical analysis indicates a positive trend, while the valuation suggests moderate attractiveness.

National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

National Australia Bank Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational Australia Bank Limited (NAB) is one of the largest financial institutions in Australia, providing a wide range of banking and financial services to individuals, businesses, and institutions. Established in 1893, NAB operates across various sectors, including retail banking, business banking, corporate banking, and wealth management. Its core products and services include personal and business loans, mortgages, credit cards, investment and savings accounts, insurance, and financial advisory services.
How the Company Makes MoneyNAB generates revenue primarily through net interest income, which comes from the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. This is complemented by fee income from various banking services such as transaction fees, account maintenance fees, and advisory services. Additionally, NAB earns revenue from its wealth management division, which includes investment products and insurance services. The bank also engages in trading and investment banking activities, contributing to its earnings. Key partnerships with fintech firms and technology providers enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency, further supporting its revenue streams.

National Australia Bank Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
NAB's earnings call revealed several positive aspects, such as strong balance sheet growth, successful strategy implementation, and improved customer advocacy. However, challenges remain with higher impairment charges, cost impacts from payroll issues, and concerns about noninterest income growth. Despite these challenges, the positive elements suggest a generally stable outlook.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Balance Sheet and Revenue Growth
NAB's full year 2025 results reflect higher underlying profit supported by a strong balance sheet and revenue growth in the second half. Australian business lending balances increased by 5.8% in the second half, marking the strongest half-yearly improvement in 3.5 years.
Improved Cash Earnings Stability
Cash earnings were stable over the year, with a cash return on equity of 11.4%. A final dividend of $0.85 brings the total dividend for the year to $1.70, representing 73.3% of cash earnings, in line with the target payout policy of 65% to 75%.
Successful Strategy Implementation
NAB's refreshed strategy aims to strengthen customer advocacy, with improvements in customer advocacy metrics and strategic NPS scores. The bank reported improved outcomes in 12 out of 20 must-win battles for customer experience.
Strong Deposit Growth
Deposits fully funded GLA growth this year, and the share of total lending funded by customer deposits increased to 84%, a meaningful improvement from 70% in 2019.
Technology Modernization Progress
71% of NAB's technology workforce are NAB colleagues, and 90% of apps run on modern infrastructure in the cloud. The bank is also reducing the number of products and processes to simplify operations.
Business Banking Leadership
NAB is the largest business lender in Australia, with a 22% share of total business lending and a 28% share of lending to small and medium-sized businesses.
Capital and Liquidity Position
NAB's common equity Tier 1 capital ratio is 11.7%, comfortably above the target. The liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding ratio are well above minimum requirements.
Negative Updates
Higher Impairment Charges
Higher impairment charges primarily relate to an increase in individually assessed charges. There were a number of single name exposures in Corporate & Institutional Banking and New Zealand Banking.
Cost Impact from Payroll Issues
Total costs were impacted by charges associated with the review and remediation of payroll issues, which are disappointing and need fixing.
Challenges with Noninterest Income
Fees and commissions increased by only $9 million due to lower business lending fees and lower capital markets and structuring fees in Corporate and Institutional Banking.
Slight Decline in Return on Equity
The cash return on equity of 11.4% is down slightly relative to 2024, indicating a slight decline in efficiency.
Asset Quality Concerns
The ratio of nonperforming loans to gross loans and acceptances increased by 6 basis points in the second half, with a notable impact from two large well-secured customers in the agri book.
Company Guidance
In the National Australia Bank's full year 2025 results presentation, the bank reported a strong performance with a focus on maintaining a robust balance sheet and revenue growth. The Australian business lending balances increased by 5.8% in the second half, marking the strongest half-yearly improvement in 3.5 years. The bank's cash return on equity was reported at 11.4%, with a final dividend of $0.85 per share, bringing the total dividend for the year to $1.70, which represents 73.3% of cash earnings. The common equity Tier 1 capital ratio stood at 11.7%, comfortably above the target, while the liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding ratio remained well above minimum requirements. NAB made significant strides in growing its business banking franchise and deposit growth, with deposits funding 84% of total lending, a noteworthy improvement from 70% in 2019. The bank also reported a 14% growth in business transaction account balances and a 46% increase in proprietary home lending drawdowns since the first half of 2024. The underlying profit rose by 0.7%, with revenue growth of 2.9%, driven by good volume growth and stronger market and treasury income, despite higher impairment charges.

National Australia Bank Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
National Australia Bank Limited shows robust revenue generation and stable equity levels. However, high leverage and declining profitability margins are concerning. Negative cash flows underscore potential liquidity issues, warranting strategic attention. While fundamentally strong, careful management of operational efficiency and cash flows is crucial.
Income Statement
70
Positive
The income statement reveals a mixed performance. The revenue growth rate is volatile, with a notable decline from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains strong at approximately 96.5% for 2024, indicating cost efficiency. However, the absence of EBIT and EBITDA in 2024 suggests potential issues in operational profitability. Net profit margin declined to 33.8% in 2024 from 14.3% in 2023, reflecting potential profitability concerns.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet shows a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.83, indicating high leverage typical in the banking industry. Stockholders' equity has been stable, with a slight increase in 2024. The equity ratio is approximately 5.7%, suggesting a modest reliance on equity financing. Given the scale of assets, the bank maintains a solid equity base, though high leverage poses potential risks.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis presents challenges, with a negative free cash flow in recent years, notably increasing to -37.2 billion in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating operational cash flow issues. Free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, reflecting strain on cash generation despite profitability. This highlights significant pressure on cash flows, necessitating careful management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue57.34B62.16B51.90B25.87B20.92B26.33B
Gross Profit15.08B19.88B19.81B18.20B16.88B14.34B
EBITDA9.89B11.19B11.67B10.86B10.11B7.07B
Net Income5.17B6.96B7.41B6.89B6.36B2.56B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.10T1.08T1.06T1.06T926.19B866.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments96.30B112.94B2.89B2.67B26.96B34.65B
Total Debt266.85B281.87B289.27B290.64B276.41B257.02B
Total Liabilities1.03T1.02T997.69B996.22B863.41B805.57B
Stockholders Equity62.17B61.45B61.15B59.03B62.78B61.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-42.14B-37.22B-27.89B27.14B-99.00M32.92B
Operating Cash Flow-40.94B-35.78B-26.70B28.22B759.00M33.89B
Investing Cash Flow1.10B4.69B-4.21B-8.70B-3.69B-702.00M
Financing Cash Flow20.99B9.92B6.98B6.01B-22.05B-16.82B

National Australia Bank Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price40.32
Price Trends
50DMA
42.70
Negative
100DMA
40.95
Negative
200DMA
38.03
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.44
Positive
RSI
32.63
Neutral
STOCH
4.20
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NAB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 40.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.39, below the 50-day MA of 42.70, and above the 200-day MA of 38.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NAB.

National Australia Bank Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$107.78B18.267.92%4.74%5.21%-9.07%
69
Neutral
$133.33B19.339.08%4.04%1.57%0.13%
69
Neutral
AU$291.08B28.78―3.17%6.39%7.78%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
64
Neutral
$126.67B18.7710.36%4.12%-4.56%-1.63%
61
Neutral
$21.03B22.7629.52%2.62%6.44%22.38%
56
Neutral
$71.62B19.7310.30%3.33%3.65%1.58%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:NAB
National Australia Bank Limited
40.32
2.49
6.58%
AU:ANZ
ANZ Group Holdings
35.12
4.46
14.53%
AU:CPU
Computershare Limited
34.44
4.27
14.16%
AU:MQG
Macquarie Group Limited
189.90
-32.09
-14.46%
AU:WBC
Westpac Banking
37.34
5.23
16.28%
AU:CBA
Commonwealth Bank of Australia
151.30
-0.44
-0.29%

National Australia Bank Limited Corporate Events

NAB Announces Financial Reporting Changes for FY25
Oct 22, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced changes to its financial reporting that will affect the presentation of its income statement and divisional financial information for the fiscal year 2025. These changes, which do not impact the bank’s cash earnings or net profit, include the reclassification of customer portfolios between divisions to better meet service needs, adjustments to the presentation of volume-related fees and commissions, and refined treatment of revenue from customer loans and deposits in New Zealand. The adjustments aim to align with industry practices and provide clearer financial disclosures, with implications for how income and expenses are reported across different divisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Sell with a A$31.23 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

NAB Announces Interest Payment Dates for US$1.75 Billion Covered Bonds
Oct 13, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced the interest payment and record dates for its US$1.75 billion 4.370% Covered Bonds due on June 3, 2030. This announcement is part of NAB’s U.S.$40 billion Covered Bond Programme, which plays a significant role in the bank’s funding strategy, potentially impacting its financial stability and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Sell with a A$38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

NAB Announces Climate-Focused Shareholder Resolution for 2025 AGM
Oct 9, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced a shareholder resolution for its 2025 Annual General Meeting, which includes a focus on climate commitments and customer transition plans. The resolution emphasizes the bank’s commitment to the Paris Agreement goals and its policy to assess and rate the transition plans of fossil fuel sector customers, with implications for financing decisions based on these ratings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Sell with a A$38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

NAB Announces Shareholder Resolutions for 2025 AGM
Oct 8, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced three shareholder resolutions for consideration at its upcoming Annual General Meeting in December 2025. These resolutions include a proposed amendment to the company’s constitution to allow shareholder opinions on director powers, a request for the bank to disclose its exposure to deforestation through its agricultural financing, and a strategy to eliminate financed deforestation. These resolutions highlight the bank’s focus on governance and environmental responsibility, potentially impacting its operations and stakeholder relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Hold with a A$37.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

National Australia Bank Updates Voting Share Control
Oct 2, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced a change in the aggregated percentage of voting shares controlled by its associated entities. The notice indicates a slight decrease in the percentage of voting shares from 0.0236% to 0.0208%. This change reflects the power of control over voting or disposal of shares by entities like JBWere Limited and the Bank of New Zealand, which act as investment managers for various client portfolios. The announcement is part of compliance with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission’s regulations and highlights the bank’s transparency in its shareholding structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Hold with a A$37.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

National Australia Bank Announces New Distribution for Capital Notes
Sep 17, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited announced a new distribution for its NAB Capital Notes 5, with a distribution rate of 4.9403% per annum for the period from September 17, 2025, to December 17, 2025. This equates to a cash amount of AUD 1.2317 per note, fully franked, payable on December 17, 2025. The announcement highlights the bank’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its stakeholders, reflecting its stable financial position and strategic focus on maintaining investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$45.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

National Australia Bank Announces New Distribution for Capital Notes
Sep 17, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced a new distribution for its NAB Capital Notes 8, with a distribution rate of 4.3103% per annum for the period from September 17, 2025, to December 17, 2025. This announcement reflects the bank’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors, with a fully franked cash amount of AUD 1.0746 per note, payable on December 17, 2025, which is likely to impact investor confidence and market positioning positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$45.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

National Australia Bank Announces New Distribution for Capital Notes
Sep 17, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced a new distribution for its NAB Capital Notes 6, with a distribution amount of AUD 1.1706 per note, fully franked, to be paid on December 17, 2025. The distribution rate for the period from September 17, 2025, to December 17, 2025, is set at 4.6953% per annum, reflecting the current bank bill rate and margin. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it highlights the bank’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors, potentially impacting investor confidence and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$45.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

NAB Announces New Dividend Distribution for Capital Notes
Sep 17, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited announced a new dividend distribution for its NAB Capital Notes 7, with a distribution rate of 4.4503% per annum for the period from September 17, 2025, to December 17, 2025. This announcement reflects NAB’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors and maintaining its position in the financial market, with the payment date set for December 17, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$45.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

National Australia Bank Announces New Distribution for Capital Notes
Sep 17, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced a new distribution for its NAB Capital Notes 3, with a distribution rate of 5.2903% per annum for the period from 17 September 2025 to 17 December 2025. This results in a fully franked cash amount of AUD 1.3189 per note, payable on 17 December 2025. The announcement reflects NAB’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors and may influence its market position by maintaining investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$45.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

National Australia Bank Issues CHF225 Million Subordinated Notes
Sep 3, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced the issuance of CHF225,000,000 fixed rate reset subordinated notes due in September 2035 as part of its global medium term note programme. These notes are designed to convert into fully paid ordinary shares if deemed necessary by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to prevent the bank from becoming non-viable. The issuance is not expected to materially impact the bank’s financial position but could increase shareholders’ equity if conversion occurs.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$42.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

NAB Releases 2025 Q3 Pillar 3 Report
Aug 17, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has released its 2025 Third Quarter Pillar 3 Report in compliance with the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s standards. This disclosure provides insights into the bank’s risk management and capital adequacy, which are crucial for stakeholders to assess NAB’s financial health and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

NAB’s FY25 Operating Expenses to Rise Due to Payroll Remediation
Aug 17, 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) has announced that its FY25 operating expenses are expected to increase by approximately 4.5% compared to FY24, primarily due to a $130 million cost associated with ongoing payroll review and remediation efforts. The bank has been investing in improving its human resources and payroll systems since 2019, with previous costs amounting to $250 million. NAB is committed to resolving payroll issues, ensuring compliance, and maintaining transparency with stakeholders, including the Fair Work Ombudsman and the Finance Sector Union.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

National Australia Bank Reports Third Quarter Earnings with Strategic Focus on Growth and Compliance
Aug 17, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited reported a 1% decrease in cash earnings for the third quarter of 2025, attributed to a rise in credit impairment charges despite a 2% growth in underlying profit. The bank’s revenue increased by 3%, driven by higher margins and volume growth, while expenses rose due to personnel-related costs and technology spending. Business lending saw a significant growth of 4%, and home lending increased by 2%. The bank is focusing on improving compliance and efficiency, with AUSTRAC canceling its Enforceable Undertaking. NAB is also enhancing customer experience by refurbishing branches and launching new payment solutions, while providing disaster relief support to communities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

NAB Faces $15.5 Million Penalty for Breaches in Hardship Notice Handling
Aug 13, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has been ordered to pay a $15.5 million civil penalty by the Federal Court following proceedings initiated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. The case involved NAB and its subsidiary, AFSH Nominees Pty Ltd, admitting to breaches of the National Consumer Credit Protection Act for failing to provide written responses to hardship notices. In response, NAB has implemented measures to improve customer support, including the creation of NAB Care, a dedicated hardship assistance team, and hiring additional staff to enhance support options for customers in need.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$34.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

NAB Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Aug 5, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced the cessation of 11,940 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This cessation reflects on the company’s capital management strategies and could have implications for stakeholders, particularly in terms of performance-based incentives and securities management.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$34.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

NAB Announces Quotation of $1.75 Billion Covered Bonds
Aug 1, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced the application for the quotation of U.S.$1.75 billion 4.370% Fixed Rate Covered Bonds due June 3, 2030. This move is part of the bank’s strategy to strengthen its financial position and enhance its market presence by offering secure investment opportunities to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$35.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

NAB Issues US$1.75 Billion in Covered Bonds
Aug 1, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced the issuance of US$1.75 billion in Covered Bonds under its US$40 billion Covered Bond Programme. This move is part of NAB’s strategy to strengthen its financial position and enhance its market presence, although the bonds will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act, limiting their sale to certain qualified buyers.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$35.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

National Australia Bank Issues A$1.5 Billion Subordinated Notes
Jul 30, 2025

National Australia Bank Limited has announced the issuance of A$1.5 billion in subordinated medium-term notes due in July 2040, as part of its domestic Debt Issuance Programme. These notes are structured to convert into ordinary shares if deemed necessary by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to prevent the bank from becoming non-viable. This issuance is not expected to materially impact the bank’s financial position, but it will increase shareholders’ equity if conversion occurs. The notes are not available for sale in the United States, and the issuance is designed to comply with Australian regulatory requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NAB) stock is a Buy with a A$34.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Australia Bank Limited stock, see the AU:NAB Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025