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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (AU:CBA)
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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:CBA

Commonwealth Bank of Australia

(Sydney:CBA)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
AU$184.00
▲(10.14% Upside)
Commonwealth Bank of Australia demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability. However, high leverage and cash flow issues pose risks. The earnings call provided a balanced view with significant achievements in asset growth and technology, offset by competitive pressures and rising expenses. The stock's valuation appears high, and technical indicators suggest neutral momentum.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates robust business expansion and effective market penetration, supporting long-term financial health.
Technological Advancements
Investments in technology and AI enhance operational efficiency and customer experience, providing a competitive edge in digital banking.
Strong Lending Growth
Growth in lending indicates strong demand for the bank's services and contributes to revenue stability and expansion.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can increase financial risk and limit flexibility, potentially affecting the bank's ability to manage economic downturns.
Rising Expenses
Rising expenses outpacing income growth can pressure margins and profitability, necessitating cost management improvements.
Competitive Pressure on Margins
Competitive pressure on margins can impact profitability, requiring strategic adjustments to maintain market position.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCommonwealth Bank of Australia provides integrated financial services in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking Services, Business Banking, Institutional Banking and Markets, and New Zealand segments. The company offers transaction, savings, and foreign currency accounts; term deposits; personal and business loans; overdrafts; equipment finance; credit cards; international payment and trade; and private banking services, as well as home and car loans. It also provides retail, premium, business, offshore, and institutional banking services; and funds management, superannuation, and share broking products and services, as well as car, health, life, income protection, and travel insurance. The company offers advisory services for high-net-worth individuals; equities trading and margin lending services; debt capital, transaction banking, working capital, and risk management services; and international and foreign exchange services. As of June 30, 2022, it operated 807 branches/service centres and 2,095 ATMs. The company was founded in 1911 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyCBA generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around its banking operations. A significant portion of its income comes from net interest income, which is the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. The bank also earns fees and commissions from various financial services, such as transaction accounts, credit card services, asset management, and insurance products. Additionally, CBA benefits from wealth management and investment services, contributing to its non-interest income. The bank's earnings are further supported by its strategic partnerships and investments in technology to enhance its digital banking capabilities, expanding its customer base and improving operational efficiency.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in asset growth, fraud prevention, and technological advancements. However, these were offset by challenges in maintaining margins, rising expenses, and competitive pressures in the retail sector. The sentiment reflects a balanced view with strong operational performance tempered by external competitive pressures.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Risk-Weighted Asset Growth
The bank achieved record risk-weighted asset growth of $29 billion, demonstrating strong lending across key segments.
Reduction in Customer Losses from Scams
Investments in combating fraud and scams led to a 76% reduction in customer losses from scams since late 2022.
Strong Dividend Payments
The bank paid $8 billion in dividends, benefiting more than 13 million Australians.
Increase in Home and Business Lending
Home lending grew by 6% and business lending by 11% over the past 12 months, contributing to strong earnings performance.
Record Performance in Business Banking
Business banking contributed approximately 40% of group net profit after tax, showing strong growth and market share gains.
Advancements in AI and Technology
The bank accelerated technology modernization, moving 10 petabytes of data to AWS Cloud and hiring 2,000 engineers.
Negative Updates
Competitive Pressure on Margins
The bank faced intense competitive pressure on both retail and business lending margins, impacting net interest margin stability.
Expense Growth Outpacing Inflation
Operating expenses increased by 6%, driven by inflation and technology investments, outpacing income growth.
Decline in Retail MFI Share
The retail main financial institution (MFI) share fell sharply, reflecting increased competitive intensity.
Challenges in Maintaining Deposit Margins
Deposit margins are under pressure due to competition and lower interest rates, posing challenges for future earnings.
Company Guidance
During the Commonwealth Bank of Australia's full-year results briefing for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, several key financial metrics and strategic priorities were outlined. The bank reported a cash net profit after tax increase of 4% to $10.25 billion, with operating income rising by 5% to $28.5 billion. The bank's net interest income grew by $1.2 billion due to strong lending growth, while operating expenses increased by 6%, driven by inflation and strategic investments in technology and frontline operations. Loan impairment expenses decreased by nearly 10% to $726 million. A $4.85 fully franked dividend was declared, with the bank's capital ratio at 12.3%, $10 billion above regulatory requirements. The bank continued to focus on supporting customers and the broader economy, providing $42 billion in business loans and $22 billion in interest to savers, while investing $900 million to combat financial crime. Key strategic pillars included enhancing customer experiences, driving technology and AI advancements, and reinforcing operational resilience. The bank maintained strong customer relationships, evidenced by leading Net Promoter Scores and digital engagement metrics, such as the CommBank app's 9 million active users.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Commonwealth Bank of Australia shows strong revenue growth and profitability, with effective equity utilization. However, high leverage and cash flow challenges present risks. Operational efficiencies and improved cash flow management are crucial for financial health.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The income statement reflects strong revenue growth with a 160.88% increase in the latest year, indicating robust business expansion. The gross profit margin remains healthy, and the net profit margin is solid, showcasing profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest room for operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity is strong, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow statement reveals challenges with negative free cash flow growth and negative operating cash flow, which could impact liquidity. The free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, indicating cash flow issues despite profitability. This area requires attention to ensure sustainable cash generation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue69.74B69.74B65.53B48.56B28.11B29.37B
Gross Profit28.66B28.66B27.31B27.14B23.29B23.55B
EBITDA14.71B15.95B15.28B15.42B15.17B13.76B
Net Income10.12B10.12B9.39B10.00B10.69B10.18B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.35T1.35T1.25T1.25T1.22T1.09T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments55.50B55.50B48.11B108.01B120.31B88.52B
Total Debt216.23B216.23B186.69B161.55B151.60B140.76B
Total Liabilities1.28T1.28T1.18T1.18T1.14T1.01T
Stockholders Equity78.78B78.78B73.09B71.63B72.83B78.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-12.91B-2.46B8.51B6.78B20.68B12.54B
Operating Cash Flow8.68B-825.00M8.91B8.35B21.66B13.30B
Investing Cash Flow-75.55B-329.00M-1.11B-15.74B-96.76B-38.79B
Financing Cash Flow73.31B7.59B-10.71B-5.62B106.72B85.98B

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price167.06
Price Trends
50DMA
169.59
Positive
100DMA
172.87
Negative
200DMA
163.14
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.68
Negative
RSI
54.29
Neutral
STOCH
72.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CBA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 167.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 167.12, below the 50-day MA of 169.59, and above the 200-day MA of 163.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:CBA.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
AU$99.15B14.634.99%11.11%-2.11%
69
Neutral
AU$279.29B27.5913.22%2.86%6.39%7.78%
69
Neutral
AU$132.34B19.233.92%9.91%8.52%
61
Neutral
AU$134.43B19.7511.33%3.86%6.86%0.51%
57
Neutral
AU$80.30B22.4010.51%2.96%7.15%6.38%
56
Neutral
AU$21.07B22.7228.20%2.55%6.44%22.38%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:CBA
Commonwealth Bank of Australia
169.82
39.09
29.90%
AU:ANZ
ANZ Group Holdings
33.93
5.45
19.14%
AU:CPU
Computershare Limited
36.80
12.25
49.91%
AU:MQG
Macquarie Group Limited
221.00
1.16
0.53%
AU:NAB
National Australia Bank Limited
44.42
9.05
25.59%
AU:WBC
Westpac Banking
39.19
9.92
33.90%

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Corporate Events

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Announces New Distribution for CAP NOTE
Sep 16, 2025

Commonwealth Bank of Australia announced a new distribution for its security, CAP NOTE 3-BBSW+3.00% PERP NON-CUM RED T-06-30, with a distribution amount of AUD 1.1484. The distribution relates to a quarterly period ending on December 15, 2025, with the record date set for December 5, 2025, and payment to be made on December 15, 2025. This announcement highlights the bank’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors, potentially enhancing its attractiveness to stakeholders and maintaining its competitive position in the financial market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CBA) stock is a Sell with a A$124.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock, see the AU:CBA Stock Forecast page.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Announces New Dividend Distribution
Sep 16, 2025

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has announced a new dividend distribution for its security CBAPL, with a distribution amount of AUD 1.1222. The ex-date for this dividend is set for December 4, 2025, with the record date on December 5, 2025, and payment scheduled for December 15, 2025. This announcement reflects the bank’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors and may influence the bank’s market positioning by reinforcing investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CBA) stock is a Sell with a A$124.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock, see the AU:CBA Stock Forecast page.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Announces New Dividend Distribution
Sep 16, 2025

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has announced a new dividend distribution for its security, CAP NOTE 3-BBSW+2.75% PERP NON-CUM RED T-06-29, with a payment amount of AUD 1.1047. The distribution is scheduled for payment on December 15, 2025, with an ex-date of December 4, 2025, and a record date of December 5, 2025. This announcement reflects the bank’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors and maintaining its financial stability, potentially impacting its market positioning positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CBA) stock is a Sell with a A$124.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock, see the AU:CBA Stock Forecast page.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Announces New Dividend Distribution
Sep 16, 2025

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has announced a new dividend distribution for its security CBAPJ, with a distribution amount of AUD 1.1047. The payment is scheduled for December 15, 2025, with a record date of December 5, 2025. This announcement reflects the bank’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors and may impact its financial performance and investor relations positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CBA) stock is a Sell with a A$124.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock, see the AU:CBA Stock Forecast page.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Announces New Dividend Distribution
Sep 16, 2025

Commonwealth Bank of Australia announced a new dividend distribution for its security CBAPI, with a distribution amount of AUD 1.1484. The ex-date for this distribution is set for December 4, 2025, with the record date on December 5, 2025, and payment to be made on December 15, 2025. This announcement reflects the bank’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors and maintaining its financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CBA) stock is a Sell with a A$124.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock, see the AU:CBA Stock Forecast page.

Commonwealth Bank Releases 2025 AGM Notice
Sep 10, 2025

Commonwealth Bank of Australia has released its 2025 Notice of Annual General Meeting (AGM) in compliance with ASX Listing Rules. The announcement includes details about the AGM, voting and proxy forms, and shareholder questions, which are accessible on the CBA website. This release is part of CBA’s ongoing commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement, potentially impacting its corporate governance and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CBA) stock is a Sell with a A$130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock, see the AU:CBA Stock Forecast page.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Updates on Voting Share Control
Sep 4, 2025

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has announced the aggregated percentage of voting shares it controls, which stands at 0.03% of the total voting shares issued. This update, in compliance with an exemption from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, indicates that the bank and its controlled entities have minimal control over voting shares, with no net economic exposure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CBA) stock is a Sell with a A$143.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock, see the AU:CBA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 01, 2025