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Metcash Limited (AU:MTS)
ASX:MTS

Metcash Limited (MTS) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:MTS

Metcash Limited

(Sydney:MTS)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
AU$3.50
▲(6.71% Upside)
Metcash Limited's overall score reflects strong financial performance and promising strategic initiatives, tempered by technical bearishness and challenges in certain segments. The company's valuation is fair, with a high dividend yield providing additional appeal. The earnings call provided a balanced view, with both positive growth indicators and notable challenges.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Performance
Strong cash performance indicates effective cash management and operational efficiency, providing financial flexibility for strategic investments and growth.
Food Segment Growth
Growth in the Food segment reflects a resilient business model and successful strategic initiatives, enhancing long-term revenue stability.
Digital Transformation
Digital transformation through the Sorted platform positions Metcash for future growth, expanding market reach and enhancing competitive advantage.
Negative Factors
Tobacco Sales Decline
Declining tobacco sales due to regulatory changes and illicit competition may continue to negatively impact revenue, requiring strategic adjustments.
Margin Pressures in Liquor
Margin pressures in the Liquor segment could affect profitability, necessitating cost management and strategic pricing to sustain margins.
Challenges in Hardware Segment
Regional challenges in the Hardware segment may hinder growth and require targeted strategies to improve performance and market penetration.

Metcash Limited (MTS) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Metcash Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMetcash Limited operates as a wholesale distribution and marketing company in Australia and New Zealand. It operates through Food, Liquor, and Hardware segments. The Food segment distributes a range of products and services to independent supermarket and convenience retail outlets. The Liquor segment engages in the distribution of liquor products to independent retail outlets and hotels. The Hardware segment distributes hardware products to independent retail outlets; and operates company owned retail stores. The company sells its products under the IGA, Foodland, Mitre 10, Home Hardware, Total Tools, Cellarbrations, IGA Liquor, and the Bottle-O brand names. Metcash Limited was founded in 1920 and is based in Macquarie Park, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyMetcash generates revenue primarily through wholesale distribution to its network of independent retailers. Its key revenue streams include the sale of grocery, liquor, and hardware products to these retailers, who then sell them to consumers. The company earns a margin on each product sold, which contributes significantly to its overall revenue. Additionally, Metcash provides marketing and promotional services to its retail partners, which may include fees associated with advertising and promotional campaigns. Significant partnerships with suppliers and brands also enhance its product offerings and pricing strategies, ultimately contributing to its earnings. The company's focus on providing tailored solutions and support to independent retailers helps to foster loyalty and repeat business, further solidifying its revenue base.

Metcash Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 30, 2025
(Q2-2026)
|
Next Earnings Date:Jun 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed view with strong cash performance, growth in Food and Convenience segments, and digital transformation initiatives standing out positively. However, significant challenges persisted in the form of declining tobacco sales, margin pressures in Liquor, and regional difficulties in the Hardware segment. Integration and strategy costs also weighed on the results.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Cash Performance
The group demonstrated a robust cash performance with a 3-year rolling cash realization ratio of 106% and an increase in operating cash flows by almost 60%.
Food Segment Growth
The Food segment showed strong earnings growth with EBIT up by 6.1%, excluding strategy and integration costs. The segment also benefited from a more diversified and resilient business model.
Successful Integration and Growth in Campbells & Convenience
Campbells & Convenience experienced strong growth, becoming a leading supplier in the petrol and convenience sector with new contracts, including a significant one with BP.
Continued Market Share Gains in Liquor
The Liquor segment continued to gain market share despite challenging market conditions, supported by strategic initiatives like the Platinum growth program and the acquisition of Steve's Liquor Warehouse group.
Total Tools and Hardware Group Sales Growth
Total Tools showed strong underlying growth, supported by improved operational performance and new store openings.
Digital Transformation in Wholesale Business
The Sorted platform is on track to become one of the largest B2B digital marketplaces in the country, representing over 30% of group revenue.
Negative Updates
Tobacco Sales Decline
The tobacco segment experienced a significant decline impacting overall sales growth, attributed to the rise of illicit operators and regulatory changes.
Margin Pressures in Liquor
The Liquor segment faced margin pressures due to a competitive retail environment and inflationary cost pressures, resulting in flat sales volumes.
Challenges in Hardware Segment
The Hardware segment faced trading difficulties in specific regions like Victoria, New South Wales, and Tasmania, impacting overall performance.
High Integration and Strategy Costs
The group incurred $8.3 million in once-off integration and strategy costs, impacting the overall financial results.
Company Guidance
During the Metcash 2026 Half Year Results Briefing, several key metrics and strategic insights were shared by Doug Jones, CEO, and Deepa Sita, CFO. The company reported a 4.5% growth in sales excluding tobacco, and a total revenue of $9.6 billion, with EBITDA increasing by 2% or 4.3% when excluding once-off integration and strategy costs. The group achieved an EBIT of $240.2 million and underlying earnings of $126.7 million, equivalent to $0.115 per share. Despite challenges in the market, Metcash maintained a strong cash performance with a 60% increase in operating cash flows and declared a fully franked dividend of $0.085 per share. The Group's debt leverage ratio was reported at 1x, at the low end of their target range. In Food, earnings grew by 9.8% at the EBITDA level and 3.6% at the EBIT level, while Liquor and Hardware segments showed resilience with strategic initiatives driving market share gains. The integration of Total Tools and the Hardware Group, along with the Foodservice & Convenience business, continued to progress positively, contributing to a diversified revenue base. Additionally, the Sorted platform is expected to become a significant B2B digital marketplace, representing over 30% of group revenue by early 2026. Overall, Metcash remains well-positioned for structural growth, backed by strong operational execution and strategic investments.

Metcash Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Metcash Limited shows steady revenue growth and improving gross profit margins. However, the net profit margin is low, and increased leverage poses a risk. Strong return on equity and robust cash flow generation are positives, but there's room for improvement in converting operating income into cash.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Metcash Limited has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the past few years, with a notable increase of 4.7% in the latest year. The gross profit margin has improved steadily, reaching 12.95%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin remains relatively low at 1.64%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.16, indicating higher leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. Return on equity is strong at 17.42%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced approach to financing assets.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Metcash Limited has shown a significant improvement in free cash flow growth, up by 39.86%, which is a positive indicator of financial health. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low, suggesting potential challenges in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 72.45%, indicating good cash generation relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue17.33B17.32B15.91B15.80B15.16B14.32B
Gross Profit844.00M2.24B1.94B1.81B1.65B1.45B
EBITDA736.50M701.40M624.60M511.80M467.70M389.00M
Net Income283.70M283.30M257.20M259.00M245.40M239.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.18B6.89B5.80B5.38B5.20B4.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments91.00M87.30M97.30M89.50M104.70M124.60M
Total Debt1.88B1.89B1.41B1.49B1.32B1.03B
Total Liabilities5.51B5.26B4.27B4.29B4.11B3.56B
Stockholders Equity1.66B1.63B1.52B1.07B1.08B1.28B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow476.50M390.50M346.70M220.60M310.60M389.90M
Operating Cash Flow637.30M539.00M482.60M372.70M432.30M475.50M
Investing Cash Flow-123.70M-482.80M-287.90M-156.60M-121.70M-171.70M
Financing Cash Flow-517.70M-68.70M-186.90M-231.30M-330.50M-454.30M

Metcash Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.28
Price Trends
50DMA
3.59
Negative
100DMA
3.74
Negative
200DMA
3.53
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.11
Negative
RSI
36.41
Neutral
STOCH
30.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MTS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.38, below the 50-day MA of 3.59, and below the 200-day MA of 3.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:MTS.

Metcash Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
AU$3.95B9.089.13%8.18%6.47%281.30%
65
Neutral
$3.60B12.7017.17%5.49%4.74%6.60%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
62
Neutral
AU$28.91B26.6728.51%3.20%1.84%-3.62%
60
Neutral
AU$887.11M9.8936.84%7.95%-3.36%-11.53%
56
Neutral
AU$35.67B37.1718.56%2.86%1.70%796.48%
51
Neutral
€1.89B-221.51-0.68%1.94%0.49%-127.84%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:MTS
Metcash Limited
3.28
0.28
9.44%
AU:WOW
Woolworths Group Ltd
29.32
-0.18
-0.62%
AU:COL
Coles Group
21.54
3.36
18.46%
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
4.89
-6.07
-55.37%
AU:ING
Inghams Group Ltd.
2.39
-0.49
-16.96%
AU:BGA
Bega Cheese Limited
6.18
0.56
10.04%

Metcash Limited Corporate Events

Metcash Director Increases Shareholding
Dec 5, 2025

Metcash Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Director Mark Graham Johnson acquiring an additional 5,000 fully paid ordinary shares through an on-market trade, bringing his total holdings to 90,000 shares. This acquisition, valued at $16,835, reflects a continued investment in the company by its leadership, potentially signaling confidence in Metcash’s market position and future prospects.

Metcash Director Increases Shareholding, Signaling Confidence
Dec 5, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced a change in the interest of its director, Marina Simone Go, who has increased her indirect shareholding in the company by acquiring 15,000 ordinary shares through an on-market trade. This transaction, valued at $49,845, raises her total holding to 39,112 shares. The acquisition reflects a potential vote of confidence in the company’s future prospects and may positively influence stakeholder perceptions.

Metcash Limited Releases FY26 Half Year Results
Dec 1, 2025

Metcash Limited has released its FY26 Half Year Results Presentation, as authorized by the company’s Board of Directors. The release of these results is a significant event for Metcash, as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial performance for the first half of the fiscal year 2026, potentially impacting its market positioning and operational strategies.

Metcash Limited Reports Solid FY26 First Half Results with Strategic Gains
Nov 30, 2025

Metcash Limited reported its financial results for the first half of FY26, highlighting solid performance driven by strategic and operational discipline. The company saw sales growth across all sectors except tobacco, with liquor outperforming the market and hardware showing signs of improvement. Despite a slight decrease in Group EBIT, Metcash achieved a 2% increase in Group EBITDA and a 0.3% rise in reported profit after tax. The company also demonstrated strong cash generation, enhancing its balance sheet flexibility, and continued progress in its ESG initiatives.

Metcash Limited Announces New Dividend Distribution
Nov 30, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced a new dividend distribution for its ordinary fully paid shares, with a distribution amount of AUD 0.085 per share. The dividend relates to the six-month period ending October 31, 2025, with the ex-date set for December 12, 2025, and the payment date scheduled for January 28, 2026. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may impact investor sentiment positively.

Metcash Limited Reports Mixed Financial Results for 1H26
Nov 30, 2025

Metcash Limited reported a slight increase in sales revenue for the first half of the 2026 financial year, with a 0.1% rise to $8.5 billion. Despite this, the company faced challenges with a 5.9% decrease in underlying profit after tax, attributed to lower earnings in its Liquor and Hardware segments, increased finance costs, and higher depreciation and amortization expenses. The Food segment showed resilience, contributing positively to earnings, while the Liquor and Hardware segments experienced margin pressures and strategic cost impacts. The statutory profit after tax saw a marginal increase of 0.3%, reflecting valuation adjustments and implementation costs.

Metcash Strengthens Compliance After Administrative Oversight
Nov 25, 2025

Metcash Limited has addressed a late lodgement issue concerning the Appendix 3Z for Mr. Murray Jordan, attributing the delay to an administrative oversight. The company has implemented several measures to ensure timely disclosure of directors’ interests, including maintaining a Directors’ Interests Register and embedding enhanced Business Control Management processes. Metcash views this incident as isolated and is committed to strengthening its compliance framework to prevent future occurrences.

Metcash Limited Announces Director Resignation
Nov 18, 2025

Metcash Limited announced the resignation of Director Murray Jordan, effective October 31, 2025. Jordan, who held interests in 66,397 ordinary shares through the Endeavour Trust, has ceased his role, marking a significant change in the company’s board composition. This transition may impact Metcash’s strategic direction and stakeholder relations, given Jordan’s involvement as a trustee and beneficiary of the Endeavour Trust.

Metcash Limited Issues Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Nov 12, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced the issuance of 41,058 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and are not intended to be listed on the ASX, reflecting the company’s strategy to motivate and retain key personnel, which could potentially enhance its operational efficiency and market competitiveness.

Metcash Limited Issues New Performance Rights to Employees
Nov 12, 2025

Metcash Limited announced the issuance of 61,364 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move is part of Metcash’s strategy to motivate and retain key employees, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and competitive positioning in the wholesale distribution industry.

Metcash Limited Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Nov 12, 2025

Metcash Limited announced the cessation of 22,248 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights that were not satisfied by the specified date. This development may affect the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, particularly in terms of performance-based incentives.

Metcash Limited Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Oct 3, 2025

Metcash Limited announced the cessation of 57,722 performance rights due to the failure to meet certain conditions. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, as it reflects on the company’s performance metrics and the ability to meet set targets.

Metcash Limited Updates Director’s Interest with New Performance Rights Issuance
Sep 17, 2025

Metcash Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding the Group CEO, Douglas Jones. The company issued 772,870 Performance Rights to Mr. Jones under its Equity Incentive Plan as part of his long-term incentive award for FY26. This grant was approved by shareholders at the 2025 annual general meeting. The issuance of these Performance Rights reflects the company’s commitment to aligning executive compensation with long-term performance goals, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and shareholder interests.

Metcash Limited Issues Performance Rights to Employees
Sep 17, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced the issuance of 47,090 performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move aims to incentivize employees and align their interests with the company’s long-term goals, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and market competitiveness.

Metcash Issues New Performance Rights to Employees
Sep 17, 2025

Metcash Limited has announced the issuance of 772,870 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move reflects the company’s commitment to aligning employee incentives with corporate performance, potentially enhancing employee engagement and retention.

Metcash Limited Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Sep 17, 2025

Metcash Limited announced the cessation of 14,222 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights that were not met or became unachievable. This announcement may impact the company’s capital structure and reflects the challenges in meeting performance conditions, potentially affecting stakeholder confidence and future strategic planning.

Metcash Limited 2025 AGM Resolutions Passed with Strong Support
Sep 10, 2025

Metcash Limited announced the successful passing of all resolutions at its 2025 Annual General Meeting, reflecting the board’s recommendations. The resolutions included the election and re-election of directors and the approval of performance rights for the Group CEO, indicating strong shareholder support and stability in leadership, which could positively impact the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.

Metcash Announces Director Retirement and Board Transition
Sep 10, 2025

Metcash Limited announced the retirement of Murray Jordan from its Board of Directors, effective 31 October 2025. Jordan, who joined the board in 2016, has significantly contributed to the company’s progress, particularly in safety, sustainability, and cultural areas. The company is in the advanced stages of searching for a new Non-Executive Director, indicating a smooth transition and continued focus on strategic governance.

Metcash Limited Reports FY25 Financial Performance with Revenue Growth
Sep 10, 2025

Metcash Limited reported its financial performance for FY25, highlighting a 7.2% increase in group revenue to $19.5 billion and an 8.6% rise in EBITDA to $747.8 million. Despite challenges in the hardware sector, the company saw strong cash performance and resilience in its food and liquor divisions, although underlying profit after tax declined by 2.4% due to increased costs and depreciation.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 06, 2025