Bega Cheese Limited (BGA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$1.92B
• Dividend Yield: 1.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 561.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 235.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: 0.49%
• EPS Growth: -127.84%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 3,900
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 305,377,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 620,121
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 561,182
• PEG Ratio: 1.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$6.78
• Price Target Upside: 7.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.22
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$3.62B

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$6.50 ▲(3.34% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 11/13/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 11/13/25

Bega Cheese Limited's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including declining revenue and profitability issues. The technical analysis shows bullish momentum, but the valuation suggests the stock may be overvalued. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits additional insights.

Positive Factors

Diversified revenue streams

A multi-pronged revenue model across branded consumer goods, private-label manufacturing, food-service ingredients and exports reduces single-channel dependency. This structural diversification supports steadier demand, smoother cash conversion and resilience to localized retail or commodity shocks over months.

Moderate leverage

A debt-to-equity around 0.45 indicates conservative financial leverage for a manufacturing business. Manageable net leverage preserves borrowing capacity, reduces refinancing pressure and gives the company flexibility to invest or absorb input-cost swings without forcing rapid asset sales over the medium term.

Positive free cash flow growth

Sustained FCF growth near 9.5% signals improving cash generation from operations and working-capital management. Persistent free cash flow enables debt reduction, capital expenditure funding and brand/inventory investment, strengthening financial durability and strategic optionality over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Sharp recent revenue decline

A pronounced revenue contraction undermines scale economics and can lead to underutilised manufacturing capacity and higher unit costs. If sustained, this reduces bargaining power with retailers, pressures margins and limits ability to absorb input-cost volatility, posing medium-term strategic risk.

Weak profitability

Persistently negative EBIT and net margins indicate insufficient operational leverage or pricing power versus input costs. Weak core profitability restricts reinvestment in brands and efficiency improvements, making it harder to restore competitive positioning and sustain returns over several quarters.

Negative return on equity

A negative ROE signals the company is eroding shareholder capital rather than generating returns. Over months this can limit access to equity financing, pressure management to restructure or divest assets, and reduce investor confidence in the company’s ability to deliver durable shareholder value.

Bega Cheese Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bega Cheese Limited receives, processes, manufactures, and distributes dairy and other food-related products in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Branded and Bulk. The Branded segment manufactures value added consumer products for owned and externally owned brands. The Bulk segment manufactures bulk dairy ingredients, nutritional, and bio nutrient products. It offers natural, processed, and kids snacking cheese; butter and cream cheese products under the Farmer's Table brand name; dips, mayonnaise, and dressings under the ZoOSh brand name; and spreads under the Simply Nuts, B honey, Bega peanut butter, and VEGEMITE brands. The company also develops and supplies bio nutrient ingredients for the health and nutrition markets. In addition, it operates as a contract packer of natural cheddar and processed cheddar cheese products for corporations; and is involved in contract packaging for private proprietary brands, supermarket house brands, and QSR raw material inputs, as well as products for other dairy companies into their brands. The company also exports its products to approximately 40 countries across the Middle East, Southeast Asia, North Asia, Central and South America, and the Pacific Islands. Bega Cheese Limited was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Bega, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Bega Cheese generates revenue primarily through the sale of its dairy products to both domestic and international markets. Key revenue streams include the sale of cheese products, which constitute a significant portion of its offerings, as well as dairy spreads and other related products. The company benefits from long-term contracts with major retailers, food service companies, and export agreements, which contribute to stable income. Additionally, Bega engages in value-added processing, allowing it to capture higher margins on specialty products. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions, such as the purchase of the Vegemite brand, enhance its product range and market reach, further bolstering its earnings capacity.

Bega Cheese Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bega Cheese Limited is facing challenges in revenue growth and profitability, with a negative net profit margin and declining revenue. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage but highlights inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. Cash flow management is stable with positive free cash flow growth, but there is room for improvement in converting income into cash.

Income Statement

Bega Cheese Limited has experienced a decline in revenue growth with a negative growth rate of -71.6% in the latest period. The gross profit margin remains moderate at 20.88%, but the company is facing challenges with profitability as indicated by a negative net profit margin of -0.24%. The EBIT margin is also negative, reflecting operational difficulties. Overall, the income statement shows a need for improvement in revenue and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Bega Cheese Limited shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -0.87%, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is stable, but the company needs to focus on improving profitability to enhance shareholder value.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates a positive free cash flow growth rate of 9.46%, which is a positive sign. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.27, showing some ability to generate cash from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.43, indicating room for improvement in converting income into free cash flow. Overall, cash flow management appears stable but could benefit from enhanced operational efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.63B	3.55B	3.52B	3.38B	3.01B	2.07B
Gross Profit	756.00M	741.30M	698.50M	656.40M	689.40M	465.20M
EBITDA	132.60M	107.90M	151.80M	-130.00M	146.00M	178.50M
Net Income	8.20M	-8.50M	30.50M	-229.90M	24.20M	72.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.19B	2.04B	2.14B	2.15B	2.36B	2.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	75.20M	120.90M	65.60M	66.40M	44.90M	87.20M
Total Debt	654.20M	439.60M	418.90M	467.10M	422.80M	496.50M
Total Liabilities	1.18B	1.06B	1.12B	1.15B	1.10B	1.24B
Stockholders Equity	1.01B	980.20M	1.01B	1.00B	1.26B	1.27B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	37.50M	70.60M	59.70M	-59.90M	86.40M	79.20M
Operating Cash Flow	135.60M	165.00M	134.30M	8.20M	158.20M	111.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-89.40M	-76.30M	-52.30M	99.90M	-63.80M	-546.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-28.80M	-33.40M	-82.80M	-86.60M	-136.70M	499.60M

Bega Cheese Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.29
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BGA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.13, above the 50-day MA of 6.03, and above the 200-day MA of 5.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BGA.

Bega Cheese Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
BUB	59 Neutral	AU$111.77M	29.76	13.97%	―	28.66%	―
BGA	51 Neutral	AU$1.92B	235.58	-0.68%	1.95%	0.49%	-127.84%
NUC	41 Neutral	AU$19.60M	-4.10	-29.43%	―	102.21%	69.47%
NOU	40 Underperform	AU$31.87M	-0.35	―	―	1.03%	-52.56%
AHF	40 Underperform	AU$27.75M	-5.42	-20.54%	―	13.92%	36.28%

Bega Cheese Limited Corporate Events

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Ceases Substantial Holding in Bega Cheese

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. has ceased to be a substantial holder in Bega Cheese Limited as of late November 2025. This change in substantial holding is due to the purchase of securities by entities controlled by First Sentier Group Limited and Morgan Stanley, impacting the voting securities and possibly altering the company’s shareholder dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BGA) stock is a Hold with a A$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bega Cheese Limited stock, see the AU:BGA Stock Forecast page.

Bega Cheese Limited Announces Change in Substantial Holders

Bega Cheese Limited has announced a change in its substantial holders, with First Sentier Investors and its associates ceasing to hold a substantial interest in the company as of November 24, 2025. This change may impact the company’s shareholder structure and could influence its market dynamics and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BGA) stock is a Hold with a A$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bega Cheese Limited stock, see the AU:BGA Stock Forecast page.