Bubs Australia Ltd. (BUB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$102.82M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: 28.66%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: 87
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): <0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 894,130,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,231,577
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,597,929
• PEG Ratio: -0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.57
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$0.18
• Price Target Upside: 50.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): <0.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$121.47M

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.13 ▲(4.17% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals (strong growth, strong gross margin, and a low-leverage balance sheet) and supportive upgraded FY26 guidance. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below major moving averages with negative MACD) and cash-flow pressure tied to inventory/working-capital buildup and cost headwinds (airfreight/tariffs).

Positive Factors

Revenue growth & upgraded guidance

Management upgraded FY26 revenue guidance to A$120–125m after H1 sales of A$55.5m (+14%) and strong U.S. contribution (~48% growth). The combination of clear guidance, rapid U.S. retail ranging and expanded distribution provides a durable multi-channel growth runway versus peers.

High gross margins

Sustained gross margins near 48% reflect premium product mix, pricing power in the natural/premium subcategory and improving supply‑chain efficiencies. Durable margin advantage supports reinvestment in marketing and distribution even if SG&A must rise to support expansion.

Strong balance sheet & capital flexibility

Minimal leverage and a solid ROE give the company capacity to fund inventory rebuilds, marketing and U.S. rollouts without large refinancing risk. The expanded NAB working-capital facility provides tactical liquidity while management executes growth and transformation initiatives.

Negative Factors

Working-capital cash strain

A deliberate inventory rebuild and higher receivables drove a large operating cash outflow and a jump in net working capital. Over the medium term this elevates liquidity risk and requires disciplined conversion to sell-through and receivables collection to avoid constraining growth investments.

Persistent freight & tariff cost headwinds

Material recurring logistics and tariff costs (c.A$5.8m guidance) represent a structural margin headwind while global supply chains remain elevated. Absent sustained cost relief or pricing actions, these costs will compress gross and operating margins and pressure profitability.

Supply and regulatory risks in core goat-milk category

Reliance on constrained goat‑milk solids and offshore supplementation increases lead times, costs and tariff exposure. Coupled with industry quality/regulatory incidents, this elevates execution risk for the company’s core premium category and may limit growth or necessitate costly quality assurance investments.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of various infant nutrition products in Australia, China, and internationally. The company offers organic baby food, goat milk, organic cow's milk infant and supreme formula, adult goat milk powder, and fresh dairy products, as well as pouches, cereals and porridges, rusks, and snacks under the Bubs brand name. It also provides children's vitamin and mineral supplement products under the Vita Bubs name; canning services for nutritional dairy products; and holds IP and trademarks. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Frenchs Forest, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Bubs Australia generates revenue primarily through the sale of its infant formula and baby food products. The company operates a multi-channel distribution strategy, including sales through major retailers, online platforms, and direct-to-consumer channels. Significant revenue streams include retail sales in Australia, along with export sales to markets in Asia, particularly China, where demand for Australian-made baby products is high due to perceived quality and safety standards. Bubs also engages in partnerships with distributors and retailers to enhance market penetration and brand visibility. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic alliances and collaborations that facilitate access to international markets, contributing to its overall earnings.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows strong revenue growth (+15.45%) and a healthy gross margin (47.84%), but profitability is still thin (net margin 5.41%). The balance sheet is a clear strength with very low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.023) and solid ROE (13.05%). Cash flow is the main drag, with sharply negative free cash flow growth (-141.07%) despite reasonable cash conversion metrics.

Income Statement

Bubs Australia Ltd. has shown a significant improvement in revenue with a 15.45% growth rate in the latest year, indicating strong sales momentum. The gross profit margin is healthy at 47.84%, reflecting efficient production processes. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 5.41%, suggesting that operating expenses are still high. The company has turned around from previous losses, which is a positive sign, but maintaining profitability remains a challenge.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.023, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity is 13.05%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the company is in a good position to manage its obligations and invest in growth opportunities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is mixed, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -141.07%, indicating potential cash management issues. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, showing some ability to convert income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.99, suggesting that most of the net income is being converted into free cash flow, which is a positive aspect.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	109.51M	102.54M	79.70M	60.11M	89.30M	39.31M
Gross Profit	50.60M	49.06M	38.70M	-11.68M	26.21M	-10.68M
EBITDA	6.92M	4.92M	-19.42M	-104.29M	-7.82M	-73.04M
Net Income	3.78M	5.54M	-20.99M	-108.35M	-11.38M	-74.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	69.18M	57.17M	66.75M	65.60M	125.94M	105.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.90M	17.43M	17.52M	26.05M	16.31M	27.88M
Total Debt	6.34M	967.50K	7.00M	4.41M	4.92M	4.16M
Total Liabilities	24.72M	14.69M	29.88M	23.92M	37.73M	18.90M
Stockholders Equity	44.46M	42.48M	36.87M	41.68M	88.21M	87.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	503.84K	6.05M	-26.52M	-46.74M	-9.93M	-23.24M
Operating Cash Flow	909.02K	6.13M	-26.33M	-46.49M	-9.37M	-22.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.14M	-118.11K	-189.82K	-4.25M	-1.56M	-5.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-6.45M	-6.03M	17.99M	60.48M	-643.21K	30.09M

Bubs Australia Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BUB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.12, below the 50-day MA of 0.13, and below the 200-day MA of 0.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:BUB.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLV	74 Outperform	AU$128.59M	4.99	10.01%	2.19%	38.25%	361.54%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
BUB	59 Neutral	AU$102.82M	17.11	13.97%	―	28.66%	―
MBH	54 Neutral	AU$36.74M	22.20	-53.68%	―	-15.07%	29.45%
NOU	40 Underperform	AU$31.87M	-0.37	19.78%	―	1.03%	-52.56%
AHF	40 Underperform	AU$22.55M	-5.27	-19.17%	―	13.92%	36.28%
NUC	40 Underperform	AU$20.39M	-2.06	-41.69%	―	102.21%	69.47%

Bubs Australia Ltd. Corporate Events

Bubs Australia Outlines 1H FY26 Results and Flags Key Operating Risks

Bubs Australia Limited has released its 1H FY26 results presentation, providing investors and stakeholders with an overview of the company’s financial performance under International Financial Reporting Standards and supplemental non‑IFRS measures. The company emphasises that the presentation is informational only and not investment advice, and highlights that non‑IFRS metrics are unaudited and intended to give a more comprehensive view of operations.

The release underscores that the results and projections are subject to significant risks, including regulatory approvals, changing consumer behaviour, international demand dynamics, and potential litigation costs. Bubs stresses that actual outcomes may differ from current expectations, reserves the right to update projections, and reiterates that all figures are presented in Australian dollars to aid transparency for the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Hold with a A$0.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia lifts earnings and guidance on surging U.S. infant formula demand

Bubs Australia reported a strong first-half fiscal 2026 result, with revenue rising 14% to $55.5 million and underlying EBITDA jumping to $4.4 million, driven largely by higher-margin U.S. sales and improved channel mix. The company maintained a solid balance sheet with $9.9 million in cash and $20 million in undrawn debt facilities, while rebuilding inventory to support demand and upgrading full-year guidance to $120–$125 million in revenue and $4–$6 million in EBITDA.

Regionally, U.S. revenue surged 48% to $34.2 million as major retailers expanded store counts and ranges, while China saw strong underlying demand but softer reported revenue of $7.5 million due to temporary inventory effects and short-term supply shortages. Australia faced stock constraints and competitive pressures, and Rest of World growth was hampered by regulatory hurdles and limited product availability, even as Bubs continued to rationalise its product portfolio and strengthen leadership to support its global growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Hold with a A$0.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Lifts Revenue but Half-Year Profit Halves

Bubs Australia reported a 14% increase in total revenue to $55.5 million for the half year ended 31 December 2025, compared with $48.5 million a year earlier. Despite the top-line growth, profit after income tax fell 50% to $1.8 million, and the company again chose not to declare interim or final dividends for the period.

Net tangible asset backing per ordinary security improved slightly to 4.76 cents at 31 December 2025, up from 4.62 cents at 30 June 2025. The results suggest Bubs is expanding sales but facing higher costs or margin pressures, which may temper near-term returns to shareholders even as the balance sheet shows modest strengthening.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Hold with a A$0.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Sets Date for H1 FY26 Results and Investor Webcast

Bubs Australia, a specialist in premium infant formula and organic baby food, serves the early childhood nutrition market with a portfolio spanning A2 beta-casein, grass-fed organic, and goat milk formulas, alongside complementary baby foods. Its products are widely available in Australian supermarkets and pharmacies and are exported to key growth markets in China, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the U.S., reflecting a strategic focus on global expansion in the clean nutrition category.

The company announced it will release its H1 FY26 financial results on 27 February 2026 and will host a same-day webcast briefing for investors and analysts led by its CEO and CFO. The scheduled results release and briefing will provide the market with an update on Bubs’ financial performance and strategic progress, offering stakeholders insight into how the business is tracking amid competitive dynamics in the infant nutrition industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Rides US Growth as FDA Progress Offsets Weaker China and Local Sales

Bubs Australia reported unaudited net revenue of $55.5 million for the first half of FY26, up 14% year-on-year, with second-quarter revenue rising 17% from the prior quarter to $29.9 million and gross margins broadly steady at about 49%. Growth was driven by a 47% surge in US half-year net revenue to $34.2 million as major retailers increased store numbers and shelf space, while China, Australia and Rest-of-World revenues declined due to stock clearance, cost-of-living pressures, regulatory issues and earlier supply rationing; management says these markets have now stabilised and expects improvements in the second half. The company is progressing toward full FDA approval for its infant formula in the US and has met all current information requests, with the regulator confirming that Bubs’ products can continue to be imported and sold while the review is finalised. Bubs ended December with $9.9 million in cash and a further $10 million in undrawn debt facilities, though increased inventory build resulted in negative operating cash flow for the quarter, underscoring the company’s investment in supporting US momentum and positioning for a stronger second half across all regions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Secures Continued US Access as FDA Reviews Infant Formula Applications

Bubs Australia says the US Food and Drug Administration is continuing its review of the company’s New Infant Formula Submissions for its Bubs Essential, Bubs 365 Day Grass Fed and Bubs Goat powder formulas, a key step in securing permanent regulatory approval and long-term market access in the United States. While the approvals process is finalised, the FDA has confirmed it will continue to allow the importation, sale and distribution of Bubs’ products under its enforcement discretion regime beyond 31 December 2025, ensuring uninterrupted supply for US retailers and families and underpinning Bubs’ ongoing push to cement its position in the US infant formula market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Director Acquires Performance Rights

Bubs Australia Ltd. has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Mr. Joseph Coote acquiring 7,132,645 performance rights under the company’s Employee Rights Plan. This issuance, approved by shareholders at the AGM, reflects the company’s strategy to align executive incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s governance and operational focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.