Bubs Australia Ltd. (BUB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$111.77M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: 28.66%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: 87
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): <0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 894,130,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,231,577
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,597,929
• PEG Ratio: -0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.57
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$0.18
• Price Target Upside: 50.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.14 ▲(14.17% Upside)

Bubs Australia Ltd. demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and a solid balance sheet. However, the stock faces challenges with cash flow consistency and lacks strong market momentum. The valuation is moderate, but the absence of a dividend yield may limit its appeal to certain investors.

Positive Factors

High Gross Margin

A gross margin near 48% indicates durable unit economics for Bubs' premium infant nutrition products. Strong gross margins provide room to absorb distribution and marketing costs, support reinvestment in product development and channel expansion, and underpin long-term profitability if scale is sustained.

Low Financial Leverage

Extremely low leverage gives the company financial flexibility to fund expansion, manage inventory cycles, and weather demand shocks without onerous interest burdens. This conservative capital structure reduces default risk and supports sustainable investment in growth initiatives over the medium term.

Revenue Growth and Profitability Turnaround

A demonstrable revenue improvement and return to profitability reflect successful execution on product mix, pricing and distribution. Sustained top-line growth combined with profitable operations supports scaling economics, better margin leverage, and the ability to invest in international expansion over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Volatility

Severe decline in free cash flow growth signals inconsistent cash conversion and potential working capital stress. Over time this can constrain capacity to fund marketing, inventory and capex internally, potentially forcing reliance on external financing despite low leverage, which raises execution risk.

Low Net Profit Margin

A sub-6% net margin leaves limited buffer for cost inflation, competitive pricing pressure, or investment spending. Persistently high operating costs could erode returns as the business scales, making long-term profitability sensitive to cost control and sustained premium pricing.

Dependency on Regulatory & Distribution Access

Growth depends on securing and maintaining regulatory approvals, distributor relationships and retail shelf space in export markets. These structural dependencies add execution complexity and can limit expansion speed or introduce discontinuities if approvals or partner agreements change.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of various infant nutrition products in Australia, China, and internationally. The company offers organic baby food, goat milk, organic cow's milk infant and supreme formula, adult goat milk powder, and fresh dairy products, as well as pouches, cereals and porridges, rusks, and snacks under the Bubs brand name. It also provides children's vitamin and mineral supplement products under the Vita Bubs name; canning services for nutritional dairy products; and holds IP and trademarks. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Frenchs Forest, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Bubs Australia generates revenue primarily through the sale of its infant formula and baby food products. The company operates a multi-channel distribution strategy, including sales through major retailers, online platforms, and direct-to-consumer channels. Significant revenue streams include retail sales in Australia, along with export sales to markets in Asia, particularly China, where demand for Australian-made baby products is high due to perceived quality and safety standards. Bubs also engages in partnerships with distributors and retailers to enhance market penetration and brand visibility. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic alliances and collaborations that facilitate access to international markets, contributing to its overall earnings.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bubs Australia Ltd. has shown strong revenue growth and improved profitability, but faces challenges in maintaining consistent cash flow. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, providing a solid foundation for future growth. Continued focus on cost management and cash flow optimization will be crucial for sustaining financial health.

Income Statement

Bubs Australia Ltd. has shown a significant improvement in revenue with a 15.45% growth rate in the latest year, indicating strong sales momentum. The gross profit margin is healthy at 47.84%, reflecting efficient production processes. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 5.41%, suggesting that operating expenses are still high. The company has turned around from previous losses, which is a positive sign, but maintaining profitability remains a challenge.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.023, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity is 13.05%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the company is in a good position to manage its obligations and invest in growth opportunities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is mixed, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -141.07%, indicating potential cash management issues. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, showing some ability to convert income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.99, suggesting that most of the net income is being converted into free cash flow, which is a positive aspect.

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	102.54M	79.70M	60.11M	89.30M	39.31M
Gross Profit	49.06M	38.70M	-11.68M	26.21M	-10.68M
EBITDA	4.92M	-19.42M	-104.29M	-7.82M	-73.04M
Net Income	5.54M	-20.99M	-108.35M	-11.38M	-74.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	57.17M	66.75M	65.60M	125.94M	105.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.43M	17.52M	26.05M	16.31M	27.88M
Total Debt	967.50K	7.00M	4.41M	4.92M	4.16M
Total Liabilities	14.69M	29.88M	23.92M	37.73M	18.90M
Stockholders Equity	42.48M	36.87M	41.68M	88.21M	87.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.05M	-26.52M	-46.74M	-9.93M	-23.24M
Operating Cash Flow	6.13M	-26.33M	-46.49M	-9.37M	-22.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-118.11K	-189.82K	-4.25M	-1.56M	-5.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-6.03M	17.99M	60.48M	-643.21K	30.09M

Bubs Australia Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BUB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.13, below the 50-day MA of 0.14, and below the 200-day MA of 0.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:BUB.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLV	74 Outperform	AU$126.92M	18.10	10.07%	2.19%	38.25%	361.54%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
BUB	60 Neutral	AU$111.77M	20.97	13.97%	―	28.66%	―
MBH	54 Neutral	AU$35.84M	-1.54	-31.14%	―	-15.07%	29.45%
NOU	40 Underperform	AU$33.25M	-0.23	―	―	1.03%	-52.56%
AHF	40 Underperform	AU$25.15M	-4.08	-20.54%	―	13.92%	36.28%
NUC	40 Underperform	AU$18.82M	-4.60	-29.43%	―	102.21%	69.47%

Bubs Australia Ltd. Corporate Events

Bubs Australia Sets Date for H1 FY26 Results and Investor Webcast

Bubs Australia, a specialist in premium infant formula and organic baby food, serves the early childhood nutrition market with a portfolio spanning A2 beta-casein, grass-fed organic, and goat milk formulas, alongside complementary baby foods. Its products are widely available in Australian supermarkets and pharmacies and are exported to key growth markets in China, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the U.S., reflecting a strategic focus on global expansion in the clean nutrition category.

The company announced it will release its H1 FY26 financial results on 27 February 2026 and will host a same-day webcast briefing for investors and analysts led by its CEO and CFO. The scheduled results release and briefing will provide the market with an update on Bubs’ financial performance and strategic progress, offering stakeholders insight into how the business is tracking amid competitive dynamics in the infant nutrition industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Rides US Growth as FDA Progress Offsets Weaker China and Local Sales

Bubs Australia reported unaudited net revenue of $55.5 million for the first half of FY26, up 14% year-on-year, with second-quarter revenue rising 17% from the prior quarter to $29.9 million and gross margins broadly steady at about 49%. Growth was driven by a 47% surge in US half-year net revenue to $34.2 million as major retailers increased store numbers and shelf space, while China, Australia and Rest-of-World revenues declined due to stock clearance, cost-of-living pressures, regulatory issues and earlier supply rationing; management says these markets have now stabilised and expects improvements in the second half. The company is progressing toward full FDA approval for its infant formula in the US and has met all current information requests, with the regulator confirming that Bubs’ products can continue to be imported and sold while the review is finalised. Bubs ended December with $9.9 million in cash and a further $10 million in undrawn debt facilities, though increased inventory build resulted in negative operating cash flow for the quarter, underscoring the company’s investment in supporting US momentum and positioning for a stronger second half across all regions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Secures Continued US Access as FDA Reviews Infant Formula Applications

Bubs Australia says the US Food and Drug Administration is continuing its review of the company’s New Infant Formula Submissions for its Bubs Essential, Bubs 365 Day Grass Fed and Bubs Goat powder formulas, a key step in securing permanent regulatory approval and long-term market access in the United States. While the approvals process is finalised, the FDA has confirmed it will continue to allow the importation, sale and distribution of Bubs’ products under its enforcement discretion regime beyond 31 December 2025, ensuring uninterrupted supply for US retailers and families and underpinning Bubs’ ongoing push to cement its position in the US infant formula market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Director Acquires Performance Rights

Bubs Australia Ltd. has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Mr. Joseph Coote acquiring 7,132,645 performance rights under the company’s Employee Rights Plan. This issuance, approved by shareholders at the AGM, reflects the company’s strategy to align executive incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s governance and operational focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.