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Bubs Australia Ltd.
(Sydney:BUB)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.09
▼(-20.91% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/04/26
The score reflects solid financial progress (revenue growth, strong gross margin, and very low leverage) and a generally positive earnings update with upgraded guidance, tempered by weak technicals (downtrend and negative MACD) and cash-flow/working-capital pressure highlighted by both the financials and earnings call.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth & improving margins
Sustained double-digit revenue growth and upgraded FY26 guidance reflect expanding distribution and category share. Coupled with a maintained ~48% gross margin, this improves the odds that top-line momentum converts to durable operating leverage and sustainable profitability over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Working-capital & cash-flow strain
A planned inventory rebuild is creating persistent operating cash outflows and elevating net working capital needs. Reliance on an increased working-capital facility signals ongoing liquidity demands that can constrain reinvestment, raise financing costs, and pressure execution until sell-through normalizes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth & improving margins
Sustained double-digit revenue growth and upgraded FY26 guidance reflect expanding distribution and category share. Coupled with a maintained ~48% gross margin, this improves the odds that top-line momentum converts to durable operating leverage and sustainable profitability over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Bubs Australia Ltd. (BUB) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$68.85M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.3
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth23.29%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees80
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)<0.01
Shares Outstanding894,130,070
10 Day Avg. Volume1,231,577
30 Day Avg. Volume1,597,929
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)3.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.57
P/FCF Ratio26.57
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.14Price Target Upside24.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)<0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$127.47M
Bubs Australia Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sell infant and adult chilled and powdered goat dairy products in Australia, China, the United States, and internationally. The company offers goat and cow milk infant formul...
How the Company Makes Money
Bubs Australia makes money primarily by selling branded infant nutrition products (notably infant formula and related infant food/nutrition items) through retail and distribution channels. Revenue is generated from wholesale sales to retailers, ph...
Bubs Australia Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a clear operational turnaround and momentum: H1 delivered double-digit revenue growth, a positive underlying EBITDA, strong U.S. retail expansion and encouraging China and ROW progress. Management upgraded FY guidance and put in place leadership, marketing and supply-chain initiatives to sustain growth. Key near-term risks are higher airfreight/tariff costs, an active inventory rebuild that has driven cash outflow and regulatory/quality uncertainties in the industry. On balance, operational wins and upgraded guidance materially outweigh the headwinds, but execution against inventory, cost and regulatory risks will be critical in H2.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
H1 revenue of $55.5m, up 14% year-on-year; strong U.S. contribution with the U.S. growing ~48% in the half; upgraded FY'26 revenue guidance of $120m–$125m (22%–27% growth).
Negative Updates
Airfreight and Tariff Headwinds
H1 airfreight costs of ~$1.8m and penalty tariffs of ~$0.4m; company assumes total airfreight and penalty tariff impacts of ~ $5.8m for FY'26 and expects higher airfreight/tariff costs in H2.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
H1 revenue of $55.5m, up 14% year-on-year; strong U.S. contribution with the U.S. growing ~48% in the half; upgraded FY'26 revenue guidance of $120m–$125m (22%–27% growth).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management upgraded FY26 guidance to revenue of A$120–125m (growth c.22–27% on pcp) after H1 revenue of A$55.5m (+14%); FY gross profit is now guided to 40–45% (H1 was 48%); reported EBITDA is guided to A$4–6m and underlying EBITDA A$9–11m (H1 underlying A$4.4m vs prior ~A$0.7m; FY25 underlying A$0.6m). Management expects total airfreight and penalty tariffs of ~A$5.8m for FY26 (H1 airfreight A$1.8m, penalty tariff A$0.4m), received a one‑off A$0.8m legal payment, and flagged inventory rising from A$28.1m (up from A$20.1m) by a further ~A$8–10m to ~A$36–38m by year end; net working capital at H1 was A$33.4m (vs A$23.2m prior), operating cash outflow H1 was A$5.7m, and the NAB working‑capital facility was increased from A$10m to A$20m.Bubs Australia Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 109.51M | 102.54M | 79.70M | 60.11M | 89.30M | 39.31M |
| Gross Profit | 50.60M | 49.06M | 38.70M | -11.68M | 26.21M | -10.68M |
| EBITDA | 6.92M | 4.92M | -19.42M | -104.29M | -7.82M | -73.04M |
| Net Income | 3.78M | 5.54M | -20.99M | -108.35M | -11.38M | -74.74M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 69.18M | 57.17M | 66.75M | 65.60M | 125.94M | 105.92M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.90M | 17.43M | 17.52M | 26.05M | 16.31M | 27.88M |
| Total Debt | 6.34M | 967.50K | 7.00M | 4.41M | 4.92M | 4.16M |
| Total Liabilities | 24.72M | 14.69M | 29.88M | 23.92M | 37.73M | 18.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 44.46M | 42.48M | 36.87M | 41.68M | 88.21M | 87.02M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 503.84K | 6.05M | -26.52M | -46.74M | -9.93M | -23.24M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 909.02K | 6.13M | -26.33M | -46.49M | -9.37M | -22.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.14M | -118.11K | -189.82K | -4.25M | -1.56M | -5.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.45M | -6.03M | 17.99M | 60.48M | -643.21K | 30.09M |
Bubs Australia Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
0.11
Price Trends
0.09
Negative
0.10
Negative
0.12
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
10.63
Positive
46.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BUB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.08, above the 50-day MA of 0.09, and below the 200-day MA of 0.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 10.63 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:BUB.
Bubs Australia Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | AU$136.94M | 15.41 | 12.22% | 2.19% | 27.60% | 96.31% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | AU$68.85M | 18.33 | 8.70% | ― | 23.29% | ― | |
46 Neutral | AU$31.36M | -1.81 | -53.68% | ― | -12.46% | 44.05% | |
45 Neutral | AU$25.49M | -0.28 | 19.78% | ― | 6.22% | 39.68% | |
43 Neutral | AU$14.96M | -3.17 | -19.17% | ― | 44.25% | 41.58% | |
40 Underperform | AU$11.76M | -2.45 | -41.69% | ― | 53.69% | 45.24% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:BUB
Bubs Australia Ltd.
0.08
-0.10
-53.33%
AU:NOU
Noumi Limited
0.10
-0.02
-16.67%
AU:AHF
Australian Dairy Nutritionals Group
0.02
-0.02
-50.00%
AU:NUC
Nuchev Pty Ltd
0.08
-0.09
-53.13%
AU:CLV
Clover Corporation Limited
0.75
0.21
38.99%
AU:MBH
Maggie Beer Holdings Ltd.
0.07
<0.01
12.70%
Bubs Australia Ltd. Corporate Events
Bubs Australia Targets Growth Amid FY26 Headwinds and U.S. Expansion
May 28, 2026
Bubs Australia expects FY26 revenue of $105–115 million, reflecting underlying growth despite external headwinds, with reported EBITDA projected to range from a small loss to a modest profit and underlying EBITDA of $4–8 million. The c...
Bubs Australia Names Lori Tauber Marcus to Board With No Initial Equity Stake
May 22, 2026
Bubs Australia Limited has appointed Lori Tauber Marcus as a director effective 21 May 2026, expanding its board with additional leadership experience. The company disclosed that Marcus currently holds no relevant interests in Bubs Australia secur...
Bubs Australia Adds U.S. Brand Veteran Lori Marcus to Board
May 21, 2026
Bubs Australia has appointed U.S.-based executive Lori Tauber Marcus as an independent non-executive director and chair of its Nominations and Remuneration Committee, effective immediately. Marcus brings more than three decades of senior marketing...
Bubs Australia Lifted by U.S. Growth Amid Supply-Chain Strains
Apr 30, 2026
Bubs Australia reported Q3 FY26 net revenue of $25.5 million, up 10% year on year, driven largely by the United States, where store distribution nearly doubled and revenue rose 43%, making the U.S. its largest market. The company is prioritising i...
Bubs Australia Appoints New Director With No Initial Equity Stake
Apr 24, 2026
Bubs Australia Limited has appointed Pascal De Petrini as a director, effective 24 April 2026, expanding its board with an experienced executive expected to support the company’s strategic direction in specialty nutrition markets. The initia...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.