Bubs Australia Ltd. (BUB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$120.71M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.40
• Revenue Growth: 28.66%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: 87
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): <0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 894,130,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,231,577
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,597,929
• PEG Ratio: -0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.57
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$0.18
• Price Target Upside: 28.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.14 ▲(1.43% Upside)

Bubs Australia Ltd. demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and a solid balance sheet. However, the stock faces challenges with cash flow consistency and lacks strong market momentum. The valuation is moderate, but the absence of a dividend yield may limit its appeal to certain investors.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet, very low leverage

Extremely low leverage and a strong equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility. This allows the company to fund supply continuity, inventory build for export cycles, absorb demand shocks, and invest in product development or distribution without relying on costly external debt.

High gross margins and profitability improvement

A near-48% gross margin shows structural pricing power and efficient production for premium infant nutrition. Combined with a return to profitability, this supports sustainable margin cushions to fund marketing, R&D and channel expansion, improving long-term competitive positioning.

Robust revenue growth trend

Sustained double-digit revenue growth indicates strong product demand and effective market penetration in domestic and export channels. Continued top-line expansion underpins scale benefits, better retailer positioning, and the ability to amortize fixed costs over larger volumes.

Negative Factors

Severe free cash flow volatility

A large drop in free cash flow growth and weak conversion of income to operating cash signals structural cash management or working-capital strain. Over the medium term this can limit reinvestment, constrain working-capital needs for exports, and raise financing vulnerability despite profitability.

Low net profit margin versus high gross margin

A low net margin despite high gross profit indicates persistent high operating and overhead costs. Structurally elevated SG&A reduces retained earnings and free cash flow, limiting the firm's ability to scale profitably and invest in long-term marketing, product development, or margin expansion initiatives.

Dependence on regulatory access and distribution for exports

Infant formula sales hinge on obtaining regulatory approvals and securing in-market distributors and shelf space. This structural dependency creates execution risk: delays or failures in approvals, or distribution partner issues, can materially impair growth in key export markets over the medium term.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of various infant nutrition products in Australia, China, and internationally. The company offers organic baby food, goat milk, organic cow's milk infant and supreme formula, adult goat milk powder, and fresh dairy products, as well as pouches, cereals and porridges, rusks, and snacks under the Bubs brand name. It also provides children's vitamin and mineral supplement products under the Vita Bubs name; canning services for nutritional dairy products; and holds IP and trademarks. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Frenchs Forest, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Bubs Australia generates revenue primarily through the sale of its infant formula and baby food products. The company operates a multi-channel distribution strategy, including sales through major retailers, online platforms, and direct-to-consumer channels. Significant revenue streams include retail sales in Australia, along with export sales to markets in Asia, particularly China, where demand for Australian-made baby products is high due to perceived quality and safety standards. Bubs also engages in partnerships with distributors and retailers to enhance market penetration and brand visibility. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic alliances and collaborations that facilitate access to international markets, contributing to its overall earnings.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bubs Australia Ltd. has shown strong revenue growth and improved profitability, but faces challenges in maintaining consistent cash flow. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, providing a solid foundation for future growth. Continued focus on cost management and cash flow optimization will be crucial for sustaining financial health.

Income Statement

Bubs Australia Ltd. has shown a significant improvement in revenue with a 15.45% growth rate in the latest year, indicating strong sales momentum. The gross profit margin is healthy at 47.84%, reflecting efficient production processes. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 5.41%, suggesting that operating expenses are still high. The company has turned around from previous losses, which is a positive sign, but maintaining profitability remains a challenge.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.023, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity is 13.05%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the company is in a good position to manage its obligations and invest in growth opportunities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is mixed, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -141.07%, indicating potential cash management issues. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, showing some ability to convert income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.99, suggesting that most of the net income is being converted into free cash flow, which is a positive aspect.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	102.54M	102.54M	79.70M	60.11M	89.30M	39.31M
Gross Profit	49.06M	49.06M	38.70M	-11.68M	26.21M	-10.68M
EBITDA	4.92M	4.92M	-19.42M	-104.29M	-7.82M	-73.04M
Net Income	5.54M	5.54M	-20.99M	-108.35M	-11.38M	-74.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	57.17M	57.17M	66.75M	65.60M	125.94M	105.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.43M	17.43M	17.52M	26.05M	16.31M	27.88M
Total Debt	967.50K	967.50K	7.00M	4.41M	4.92M	4.16M
Total Liabilities	14.69M	14.69M	29.88M	23.92M	37.73M	18.90M
Stockholders Equity	42.48M	42.48M	36.87M	41.68M	88.21M	87.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.05M	6.05M	-26.52M	-46.74M	-9.93M	-23.24M
Operating Cash Flow	6.13M	6.13M	-26.33M	-46.49M	-9.37M	-22.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-118.11K	-118.11K	-189.82K	-4.25M	-1.56M	-5.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-6.03M	-6.03M	17.99M	60.48M	-643.21K	30.09M

Bubs Australia Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BUB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.14, below the 50-day MA of 0.14, and below the 200-day MA of 0.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:BUB.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLV	74 Outperform	AU$133.60M	19.05	10.07%	2.19%	38.25%	361.54%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
BUB	60 Neutral	AU$120.71M	21.77	13.97%	―	28.66%	―
MBH	54 Neutral	AU$41.66M	-1.73	-31.14%	―	-15.07%	29.45%
NOU	40 Underperform	AU$36.02M	-0.23	―	―	1.03%	-52.56%
AHF	40 Underperform	AU$20.81M	-3.47	-20.54%	―	13.92%	36.28%
NUC	38 Underperform	AU$21.00M	-5.17	-29.43%	―	102.21%	69.47%

Bubs Australia Ltd. Corporate Events

Bubs Australia Secures Continued US Access as FDA Reviews Infant Formula Applications

Bubs Australia says the US Food and Drug Administration is continuing its review of the company’s New Infant Formula Submissions for its Bubs Essential, Bubs 365 Day Grass Fed and Bubs Goat powder formulas, a key step in securing permanent regulatory approval and long-term market access in the United States. While the approvals process is finalised, the FDA has confirmed it will continue to allow the importation, sale and distribution of Bubs’ products under its enforcement discretion regime beyond 31 December 2025, ensuring uninterrupted supply for US retailers and families and underpinning Bubs’ ongoing push to cement its position in the US infant formula market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Director Acquires Performance Rights

Bubs Australia Ltd. has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Mr. Joseph Coote acquiring 7,132,645 performance rights under the company’s Employee Rights Plan. This issuance, approved by shareholders at the AGM, reflects the company’s strategy to align executive incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s governance and operational focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Secures Shareholder Approval at AGM

Bubs Australia Limited announced that all resolutions proposed at its Annual General Meeting on November 20, 2025, were passed. This outcome reflects strong shareholder support and is likely to positively impact the company’s governance and strategic initiatives, reinforcing its position in the infant nutrition industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Acknowledges Indigenous Heritage at AGM

Bubs Australia Limited held its Annual General Meeting on November 20, 2025, acknowledging the Traditional Custodians of the Lands on which they operate, and paying respects to Elders past and present. The meeting took place in the context of the Bunurong Marine National Park of Victoria, reflecting the company’s commitment to recognizing indigenous heritage.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Limited’s 2025 AGM Highlights Leadership Changes and Strategic Focus

At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, Bubs Australia Limited’s Chair, Paul Jensen, addressed the shareholders, highlighting his recent appointment following Katrina Rathie’s resignation. Jensen expressed his commitment to the company’s growth and acknowledged the contributions of former Chair Rathie and CEO Reg Wiene, who both played significant roles in the company’s recent transformations. The meeting also involved the re-election of Jensen as an independent non-executive director, emphasizing the company’s focus on strong governance and strategic leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Updates on Legal Dispute Resolution

Bubs Australia Limited has announced an update on its legal dispute involving its subsidiary, The Infant Food Co. Pty Limited, against former customers Alice Trading Limited and Willis Trading Limited. The company expects to recover A$825,000 from Willis through enforcement proceedings in the Federal Court of Australia, but does not anticipate further recoveries from Alice or Willis due to their financial status. This development may impact Bubs’ financial position and stakeholder interests, as it resolves part of the ongoing arbitration issues.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Buy with a A$0.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Reports Strong Q1 FY26 Growth Amidst Global Challenges

Bubs Australia Limited announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ending September 2025, highlighting a 30% increase in net revenue to $25.6 million and a gross profit margin of 46.4%. The company achieved an EBITDA of $0.5 million, a significant improvement from a $4.3 million loss in the previous corresponding period. Despite inventory challenges, particularly in the USA, Bubs maintained strong sales through strategic investments in advertising and airfreight. The company is actively managing inventory rebuilds and anticipates resolving shortages by the end of the current quarter. Bubs also expects FDA approval for its products by the end of 2025, which could further enhance its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Buy with a A$0.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Reports Strong Q1 FY26 Revenue Growth Amid Inventory Challenges

Bubs Australia Limited reported a 30% increase in net revenue to $25.6 million for Q1 FY26, with a gross profit margin of 46.4% and a positive EBITDA of $0.5 million. Despite challenges in inventory and cash flow, particularly in the USA, the company is optimistic about meeting customer demand and achieving growth targets. The USA market showed strong performance, although other regions like China and Australia experienced revenue declines. The company is actively managing inventory issues and expects improvements by the end of the current quarter. Bubs is also awaiting FDA approval for its products by the end of 2025, which could further enhance its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Buy with a A$0.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Announces New Company Secretary Appointment

Bubs Australia Limited announced the resignation of Mr. Peter Cope as Company Secretary and the appointment of Ms. Olga Smejkalova from Acclime Corporate Services Australia Pty Ltd, effective October 20, 2025. This change in company secretary is significant as Ms. Smejkalova will manage the company’s communications with the ASX, potentially impacting the company’s regulatory interactions and stakeholder communications.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Buy with a A$0.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.

Bubs Australia Ltd. Announces Key Resolutions for 2025 AGM

Bubs Australia Ltd. has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting, which will address several key resolutions. These include the adoption of the remuneration report, re-election of director Paul Jensen, and approval of performance rights for CEO Joe Coote. Additionally, shareholders will vote on granting the company an additional 10% placement capacity and renewing proportional takeover provisions. These resolutions are pivotal for the company’s strategic direction, potentially impacting its governance and financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BUB) stock is a Buy with a A$0.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bubs Australia Ltd. stock, see the AU:BUB Stock Forecast page.