Bubs Australia Ltd. (AU:BUB)
ASX:BUB
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Bubs Australia Ltd.
(Sydney:BUB)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.11
▲(10.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals (strong growth, strong gross margin, and a low-leverage balance sheet) and supportive upgraded FY26 guidance. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below major moving averages with negative MACD) and cash-flow pressure tied to inventory/working-capital buildup and cost headwinds (airfreight/tariffs).
Positive Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
Very low debt-to-equity (0.023) provides durable financial flexibility: the company can fund working-capital rebuilds, invest in U.S. retail roll-out, and withstand industry shocks without heavy refinancing. This structural strength reduces solvency risk over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Operating cash outflow & inventory rebuild
A large inventory build has driven a near-term operating cash outflow and materially raised net working capital needs. This is a durable risk until inventory turns into sell-through: it pressures liquidity, increases reliance on facilities, and can limit ability to fund other strategic initiatives without further financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
Very low debt-to-equity (0.023) provides durable financial flexibility: the company can fund working-capital rebuilds, invest in U.S. retail roll-out, and withstand industry shocks without heavy refinancing. This structural strength reduces solvency risk over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Bubs Australia Ltd. (BUB) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$93.88M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.1
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth28.66%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees87
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)<0.01
Shares Outstanding894,130,070
10 Day Avg. Volume1,231,577
30 Day Avg. Volume1,597,929
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)3.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.57
P/FCF Ratio26.57
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.17Price Target Upside70.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)<0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$121.70M
Bubs Australia Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of various infant nutrition products in Australia, China, and internationally. The company offers organic baby food, goat milk, organic cow's milk infant an...
How the Company Makes Money
Bubs Australia primarily makes money by selling branded infant nutrition products, with revenue recognized from the sale of goods to customers (e.g., retailers, distributors, and other trade partners) and, in some cases, via direct-to-consumer onl...
Bubs Australia Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a clear operational turnaround and momentum: H1 delivered double-digit revenue growth, a positive underlying EBITDA, strong U.S. retail expansion and encouraging China and ROW progress. Management upgraded FY guidance and put in place leadership, marketing and supply-chain initiatives to sustain growth. Key near-term risks are higher airfreight/tariff costs, an active inventory rebuild that has driven cash outflow and regulatory/quality uncertainties in the industry. On balance, operational wins and upgraded guidance materially outweigh the headwinds, but execution against inventory, cost and regulatory risks will be critical in H2.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
H1 revenue of $55.5m, up 14% year-on-year; strong U.S. contribution with the U.S. growing ~48% in the half; upgraded FY'26 revenue guidance of $120m–$125m (22%–27% growth).
Negative Updates
Airfreight and Tariff Headwinds
H1 airfreight costs of ~$1.8m and penalty tariffs of ~$0.4m; company assumes total airfreight and penalty tariff impacts of ~ $5.8m for FY'26 and expects higher airfreight/tariff costs in H2.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
H1 revenue of $55.5m, up 14% year-on-year; strong U.S. contribution with the U.S. growing ~48% in the half; upgraded FY'26 revenue guidance of $120m–$125m (22%–27% growth).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management upgraded FY26 guidance to revenue of A$120–125m (growth c.22–27% on pcp) after H1 revenue of A$55.5m (+14%); FY gross profit is now guided to 40–45% (H1 was 48%); reported EBITDA is guided to A$4–6m and underlying EBITDA A$9–11m (H1 underlying A$4.4m vs prior ~A$0.7m; FY25 underlying A$0.6m). Management expects total airfreight and penalty tariffs of ~A$5.8m for FY26 (H1 airfreight A$1.8m, penalty tariff A$0.4m), received a one‑off A$0.8m legal payment, and flagged inventory rising from A$28.1m (up from A$20.1m) by a further ~A$8–10m to ~A$36–38m by year end; net working capital at H1 was A$33.4m (vs A$23.2m prior), operating cash outflow H1 was A$5.7m, and the NAB working‑capital facility was increased from A$10m to A$20m.Bubs Australia Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 109.51M | 102.54M | 79.70M | 60.11M | 89.30M | 39.31M |
| Gross Profit | 50.60M | 49.06M | 38.70M | -11.68M | 26.21M | -10.68M |
| EBITDA | 6.92M | 4.92M | -19.42M | -104.29M | -7.82M | -73.04M |
| Net Income | 3.78M | 5.54M | -20.99M | -108.35M | -11.38M | -74.74M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 69.18M | 57.17M | 66.75M | 65.60M | 125.94M | 105.92M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.90M | 17.43M | 17.52M | 26.05M | 16.31M | 27.88M |
| Total Debt | 6.34M | 967.50K | 7.00M | 4.41M | 4.92M | 4.16M |
| Total Liabilities | 24.72M | 14.69M | 29.88M | 23.92M | 37.73M | 18.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 44.46M | 42.48M | 36.87M | 41.68M | 88.21M | 87.02M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 503.84K | 6.05M | -26.52M | -46.74M | -9.93M | -23.24M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 909.02K | 6.13M | -26.33M | -46.49M | -9.37M | -22.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.14M | -118.11K | -189.82K | -4.25M | -1.56M | -5.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.45M | -6.03M | 17.99M | 60.48M | -643.21K | 30.09M |
Bubs Australia Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
0.10
Price Trends
0.12
Negative
0.13
Negative
0.14
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
32.91
Neutral
48.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BUB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.11, below the 50-day MA of 0.12, and below the 200-day MA of 0.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:BUB.
Bubs Australia Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | AU$174.51M | 7.66 | 12.22% | 2.19% | 38.25% | 361.54% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
59 Neutral | AU$93.88M | 17.11 | 13.97% | ― | 28.66% | ― | |
54 Neutral | AU$35.84M | 22.20 | -53.68% | ― | -15.07% | 29.45% | |
50 Neutral | AU$21.17M | -2.06 | -41.69% | ― | 102.21% | 69.47% | |
40 Underperform | AU$31.87M | -0.37 | 19.78% | ― | 1.03% | -52.56% | |
40 Underperform | AU$24.28M | -5.27 | -19.17% | ― | 13.92% | 36.28% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:BUB
Bubs Australia Ltd.
0.11
-0.02
-12.50%
AU:NOU
Noumi Limited
0.12
-0.03
-17.86%
AU:AHF
Australian Dairy Nutritionals Group
0.03
-0.01
-34.88%
AU:NUC
Nuchev Pty Ltd
0.14
-0.03
-18.18%
AU:CLV
Clover Corporation Limited
1.05
0.55
113.27%
AU:MBH
Maggie Beer Holdings Ltd.
0.08
0.03
53.85%
Bubs Australia Ltd. Corporate Events
Bubs Australia Cuts 2026 Performance Rights After Hurdles Missed
Mar 30, 2026
Bubs Australia Ltd., an ASX-listed infant nutrition and dairy products company, has reported a change in its issued capital structure following the lapse of certain performance-linked securities. The update reflects the company’s ongoing man...
Bubs Australia Sets Out Growth Roadmap at 2026 Strategy Update Day
Mar 25, 2026
Bubs Australia Ltd. will host a Strategy Update Day in Melbourne, where CEO Joe Coote and the Executive Leadership Team will present a detailed overview of the business and its growth strategy. The event, which includes a webcast accessible via th...
Bubs Australia Director Paul Jensen Increases Indirect Shareholding
Mar 18, 2026
Bubs Australia Ltd has disclosed a change in director Paul Jensen’s relevant interest in the company’s securities, as required under ASX listing rules. The disclosure details changes in his indirect holdings via Taranaki Holdings Ltd a...
Bubs Australia Issues Over 12 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Plan
Mar 12, 2026
Bubs Australia Ltd. has issued 12,447,147 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, with an issue date of March 4, 2026. These securities, classified as 2026 performance rights and not intended for ASX quotation, indicate th...
Bubs Australia to Outline 2030 Growth Plan at Strategy Update Day
Mar 11, 2026
Bubs Australia, a specialist in infant formula and organic baby food with a strong presence in Australian retail and key export markets, continues to position itself around clean nutrition for early childhood development. The company’s produ...
Bubs Australia Director Paul Jensen Increases Indirect Shareholding via On-Market Purchase
Mar 4, 2026
Bubs Australia Ltd. has disclosed a change in director Paul Jensen’s indirect shareholding, indicating an on-market purchase that increases his beneficial interest in the company. Through Taranaki Holdings Ltd as trustee for the Jensen Famil...
Bubs Australia Director Increases Indirect Shareholding via On-Market Purchase
Mar 3, 2026
Bubs Australia Ltd. disclosed a change in director Paul Jensen’s indirect shareholding, indicating increased insider investment in the company. Through Taranaki Holdings Ltd as trustee for the Jensen Family Retirement Fund, Jensen purchased ...
Bubs Australia Outlines 1H FY26 Results and Flags Key Operating Risks
Feb 27, 2026
Bubs Australia Limited has released its 1H FY26 results presentation, providing investors and stakeholders with an overview of the company’s financial performance under International Financial Reporting Standards and supplemental non‑I...
Bubs Australia lifts earnings and guidance on surging U.S. infant formula demand
Feb 26, 2026
Bubs Australia reported a strong first-half fiscal 2026 result, with revenue rising 14% to $55.5 million and underlying EBITDA jumping to $4.4 million, driven largely by higher-margin U.S. sales and improved channel mix. The company maintained a s...
Bubs Australia Lifts Revenue but Half-Year Profit Halves
Feb 26, 2026
Bubs Australia reported a 14% increase in total revenue to $55.5 million for the half year ended 31 December 2025, compared with $48.5 million a year earlier. Despite the top-line growth, profit after income tax fell 50% to $1.8 million, and the c...
Bubs Australia Sets Date for H1 FY26 Results and Investor Webcast
Feb 11, 2026
Bubs Australia, a specialist in premium infant formula and organic baby food, serves the early childhood nutrition market with a portfolio spanning A2 beta-casein, grass-fed organic, and goat milk formulas, alongside complementary baby foods. Its ...
Bubs Australia Rides US Growth as FDA Progress Offsets Weaker China and Local Sales
Jan 30, 2026
Bubs Australia reported unaudited net revenue of $55.5 million for the first half of FY26, up 14% year-on-year, with second-quarter revenue rising 17% from the prior quarter to $29.9 million and gross margins broadly steady at about 49%. Growth wa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.