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Woolworths Group Ltd (AU:WOW)
ASX:WOW

Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW) AI Stock Analysis

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AU

Woolworths Group Ltd

(Sydney:WOW)

69Neutral
Woolworths Group Ltd shows strong revenue growth and stable gross margins, but profitability challenges and high leverage present significant risks. The stock demonstrates moderate upward momentum and offers a reasonable dividend yield, but a high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation. The recent earnings call highlighted the need for strategic adjustments due to industrial actions and cost pressures, impacting the overall performance.
Positive Factors
Dividends
The company declared A$0.57/sh normal dividend and a A$0.4/sh special dividend.
Earnings
Woolworths has seen strong recovery on a combination of subsiding regulatory concerns and improving execution.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
A drag is expected in NZ Foods, Big W, and Interest Expense, affecting overall performance.

Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Woolworths Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWoolworths Group Limited operates retail stores. It operates through Australian Food, Australian B2B, New Zealand Food, BIG W, and Other segments. The Australian Food segment procures and resells food and related products, and provides services to customers in Australia. It operates 1,087 Woolworths supermarkets and Metro Food stores. The Australian B2B segment engages in procurement and distribution of food and related products for resale to other businesses, as well as provision of supply chain services to business customers in Australia. The New Zealand Food segment is involved in the procurement and resale of food and drinks, and provides services to retail customers in New Zealand. This segment operates 190 countdown supermarkets. The BIG W segment procures and resells discount general merchandise products to customers in Australia. This segment operates 176 BIG W stores. Woolworths Group Limited also engages in the wholesale operation. The company was formerly known as Woolworths Limited and changed its name to Woolworths Group Limited in December 2017. Woolworths Group Limited was incorporated in 1924 and is based in Bella Vista, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyWoolworths Group Ltd generates revenue primarily through its extensive network of retail stores, which sell a diverse range of products from groceries to electronics. The company's main revenue stream comes from its supermarket operations under the Woolworths and Countdown brands, which attract millions of customers across Australia and New Zealand. Another significant source of income is its liquor retail business, with BWS and Dan Murphy's contributing substantially to its earnings. The BIG W chain adds to the company's revenue by offering general merchandise at competitive prices. Woolworths also benefits from its partnerships with suppliers and its own line of private label products, which help enhance profit margins. Additionally, the company has been expanding its e-commerce capabilities, further supporting its revenue growth through online sales channels.

Woolworths Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Woolworths Group Ltd exhibits strong revenue growth and stable gross profit margins, yet faces profitability challenges with declining net, EBIT, and EBITDA margins. The balance sheet indicates high leverage, posing potential risks, though asset backing remains reasonable. Cash flow generation is robust, but the recent decrease in free cash flow suggests liquidity management concerns.
Income Statement
Woolworths Group Ltd has shown consistent revenue growth, with a revenue growth rate of 5.65% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin is solid at 27.32%, indicating good control over cost of goods sold. However, the net profit margin has declined to 0.16% due to significant reductions in EBIT and EBITDA margins, which are 1.92% and 5.20%, respectively. These margins suggest profitability challenges, despite revenue growth.
Balance Sheet
70
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 3.09, highlighting significant leverage. However, the equity ratio of 15.93% shows a moderate level of equity financing. Return on equity has decreased to 2.00%, reflecting diminished net income against equity. Overall, the balance sheet presents leverage risks but maintains adequate asset backing.
Cash Flow
Free cash flow decreased by 20.51% from 2023 to 2024, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 40.36, showcasing robust cash generation relative to net earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 16.76, which reflects a decline in free cash flow efficiency.
Breakdown
Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
67.92B64.29B60.85B55.73B53.08B
Gross Profit
18.55B17.18B18.04B16.33B15.33B
EBIT
1.31B2.78B2.56B2.67B1.88B
EBITDA
3.53B5.36B5.05B5.43B4.48B
Net Income Common Stockholders
108.00M1.62B1.55B2.07B1.17B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.30B1.14B1.03B1.01B2.07B
Total Assets
33.94B37.18B33.27B39.24B38.47B
Total Debt
16.72B15.73B16.76B14.89B18.66B
Net Debt
15.42B14.60B15.73B13.88B16.59B
Total Liabilities
28.37B30.61B27.17B37.50B29.44B
Stockholders Equity
5.41B6.42B5.98B1.38B8.74B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.81B2.28B1.01B2.25B2.42B
Operating Cash Flow
4.36B4.80B3.43B4.64B4.57B
Investing Cash Flow
-2.31B-1.89B-2.51B-2.21B-1.95B
Financing Cash Flow
-1.92B-2.81B-1.34B-3.04B-1.61B

Woolworths Group Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price32.50
Price Trends
50DMA
30.22
Positive
100DMA
30.08
Positive
200DMA
31.12
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.64
Negative
RSI
67.76
Neutral
STOCH
74.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:WOW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.68, above the 50-day MA of 30.22, and above the 200-day MA of 31.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:WOW.

Woolworths Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AUEDV
74
Outperform
AU$7.13B16.2311.71%5.03%1.78%-11.07%
AUWOW
69
Neutral
$39.51B24.3932.27%3.27%5.26%
64
Neutral
$8.87B14.815.05%174.26%3.56%3.68%
AUAPL
45
Neutral
AU$7.91M-11.26%3.13%35.15%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:WOW
Woolworths Group Ltd
32.50
2.82
9.50%
CLEGF
Coles Group
14.85
7.47
101.22%
MCSHF
Metcash Limited
1.83
-0.61
-25.00%
WFAFF
Wesfarmers Limited
51.36
6.25
13.86%
AU:APL
Contango Asset Management Ltd.
0.14
0.04
40.00%
AU:EDV
Endeavour Group Ltd
4.11
-0.89
-17.80%

Woolworths Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 4.34%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a challenging period with significant headwinds from industrial action and cost pressures impacting financial performance, especially in the Australian Food segment. However, there are positive signs in eCommerce growth, digital engagement, and sustainability achievements. Despite these positive elements, the balance of highlights and lowlights indicates a need for strategic adjustments and operational improvements.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
eCommerce Growth
eCommerce sales increased 20% for the half, with 88% of online orders fulfilled in less than 24 hours, driven by Same Day and On Demand services.
Digital and Loyalty Engagement
The Woolworths and Everyday Rewards apps saw a growth of 18% and 9% respectively in weekly active users, with the Everyday Rewards app maintaining its top ranking among retail loyalty apps.
New Zealand Food Performance
New Zealand Food sales increased 2.7% in New Zealand dollars, with a 15.2% increase in EBIT, showing positive momentum.
Cartology and Adjacency Businesses
Cartology, the retail media business, experienced a strong half with 15.3% revenue growth, contributing positively to earnings.
Sustainability Achievements
The group achieved a 12.5% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions in H1, supported by a switch to renewable electricity.
Negative Updates
Australian Food EBIT Decline
Australian Food EBIT declined 12.8% due to industrial action, supply chain costs, and shifts in customer behavior towards lower-priced items.
Impact of Industrial Action
The industrial action resulted in a $240 million loss in sales and a $95 million impact on EBIT in the half.
BIG W Performance
BIG W's financial performance was below expectations with EBIT declining by 46% to $29 million due to lower average selling prices and higher levels of clearance activity.
Cost Pressures
Wage increases (4.25%) and other inflationary pressures led to higher costs, impacting the overall financial performance.
Customer Value Perception
Challenges in improving price perception and customer trust, highlighted by ongoing cross-shopping behaviors and competitive pressures.
Company Guidance
During the call, the Woolworths Group provided guidance outlining several key metrics and focus areas for the fiscal year 2025. The group reported a 3.7% increase in sales for the first half, with a decline in H1 EBIT by 14.2% to $1.45 billion, largely due to industrial action and supply chain costs. The impact of industrial action resulted in an estimated $240 million loss in sales and a $95 million impact on EBIT. Australian Food's EBIT declined by 12.8%, with a significant contribution from increased wage and supply chain costs. The company observed a shift in customer behavior towards value-seeking, impacting gross margins. eCommerce sales grew 20%, with 88% of orders fulfilled in under 24 hours. Woolworths is aiming for annualized gross savings of approximately $400 million by the end of calendar 2025 through a simplification initiative. The group plans to focus on optimizing promotions, improving price perception, and leveraging digital tools, with a commitment to enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency.

Woolworths Group Ltd Corporate Events

Woolworths Group Reports 3.2% Sales Growth in Challenging Market
Apr 30, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd reported a 3.2% increase in total third-quarter sales, reaching $17.3 billion, driven by growth in Australian and New Zealand food sales and a strong performance in eCommerce. Despite challenges such as weather disruptions and cost-of-living pressures, the company maintained stable customer satisfaction scores and continued to focus on retail fundamentals, including value and availability. The company faced additional costs due to weather events in Queensland and Northern NSW, impacting its BIG W segment, which struggled with clothing sales, leading to a projected loss before interest and tax for the second half of the year.

Woolworths Group Faces Shareholder Resolutions on Sustainable Seafood Sourcing
Apr 22, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd has received resolutions from shareholders representing a small percentage of shares, to be considered at the upcoming Annual General Meeting in October 2025. The resolutions focus on the responsible sourcing of seafood, with requests for the company to report on the impact of its farmed seafood on endangered species and to align its seafood sourcing policy with global best practices. Woolworths is committed to transparency and will include relevant information in its Sustainability Report, reflecting ongoing due diligence and adherence to evolving standards.

Woolworths Group Updates Sydney Registry Office Address
Apr 11, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd has announced a change in the address of its Sydney registry office, MUFG Corporate Markets (AU) Limited, effective from 14 April 2025. This move to Liberty Place, Level 41, 161 Castlereagh St, Sydney, is part of the company’s operational updates, ensuring stakeholders are informed of the new location while maintaining the same contact numbers and mailing address.

Woolworths’ Acquisition of Beak & Johnston Approved by ACCC
Apr 9, 2025

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has decided not to oppose Woolworths Group Ltd’s proposed acquisition of Beak & Johnston Holdings Pty Ltd, which will result in Woolworths owning 100% of B&J’s subsidiaries. The ACCC’s investigation concluded that the acquisition is unlikely to substantially lessen competition in the market, as rival ready meal producers will still have access to other distribution channels and retailers. The acquisition includes several B&J brands, but excludes Beak & Johnston Pty Ltd, which will remain independent. The New Zealand Commerce Commission is also reviewing the acquisition.

Woolworths Group Updates Director’s Interest and Equity Plans
Mar 14, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Holly Kramer, with no change in her indirect interest in securities held by Bond Street Custodians Limited and Woolworths Custodian Pty Ltd. Additionally, the company reported the acquisition of 584 NED Share Rights valued at $16,636.47, which will vest and convert into Woolworths Ordinary Shares, impacting the company’s director equity plans.

Woolworths Group Announces New Securities Quotation
Mar 14, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited has announced a new application for the quotation of ordinary securities under the NED Equity Plan. This move is aimed at satisfying future vesting of share rights, with a total of 1,777 securities to be quoted. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its equity and reward its stakeholders, potentially impacting its market position and investor relations.

Woolworths Group Issues Unquoted Equity Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Mar 14, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited has announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities under an employee incentive scheme. This includes 1,803,370 performance rights and 9,273 share rights, which are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until these restrictions end. This move is part of Woolworths’ strategy to incentivize employees and align their interests with the company’s long-term goals, potentially impacting its operational dynamics and stakeholder engagement.

Woolworths Group Announces Issuance of Unquoted Equity Securities
Mar 13, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited announced the issuance and conversion of 25,256 unquoted equity securities, reflecting its ongoing financial activities and strategic management of equity. This move may impact the company’s financial structure and market positioning, potentially influencing investor perceptions and stakeholder interests.

Woolworths Group Announces Cessation of Securities
Mar 13, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited announced the cessation of certain securities, specifically 150,186 performance rights and 42,365 share rights, due to the conditions for these securities not being met. This announcement may impact the company’s financial operations and investor relations as it reflects on the company’s ability to meet certain performance conditions.

Woolworths Group Updates Substantial Holder Interests
Mar 10, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd has announced a change in the interests of a substantial holder, State Street Global Advisors, in its voting securities. This update reflects the current voting power and relevant interests held by State Street and its associates, impacting the control over voting rights and the disposition of securities. The change in substantial holding could influence Woolworths’ governance and decision-making processes, potentially affecting stakeholders and market dynamics.

Woolworths Group Announces NED Equity Plan Vesting
Mar 4, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd announced the vesting of share rights for its Non-Executive Directors under the NED Equity Plan. This plan allows directors to convert their salary sacrifice into shares twice yearly, enhancing their stake in the company. The recent changes involve directors Holly Kramer, Tracey Fellows, and Warwick Bray, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning director interests with shareholder value.

Woolworths Group Ltd Releases Half-Year Results for 2025
Feb 25, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd has released its Half-Year Results Presentation for the period ending 5 January 2025. This announcement provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its operations and market positioning. Stakeholders, including investors and analysts, are likely to find this information crucial for assessing the company’s future prospects.

Woolworths Group Reports Mixed Half-Year Results Amid Strategic Adjustments
Feb 25, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd reported a 3.7% increase in group sales for the half-year ending January 5, 2025, despite a 14.2% decline in EBIT due to industrial action and increased supply chain costs. The company is focusing on improving customer metrics, simplifying operations, and enhancing retail fundamentals to navigate cost-of-living pressures and enhance its market position.

Woolworths Group Announces New Dividend Distribution
Feb 25, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited has announced a new dividend distribution of AUD 0.39 per share, to be paid on April 23, 2025. The dividend relates to the six-month period ending January 5, 2025, with an ex-date of March 5, 2025, and a record date of March 6, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may impact its market positioning by reinforcing investor confidence.

Woolworths Group Reports Revenue Growth Despite Profit Decline
Feb 25, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd has released its Half-Year Financial Report for the period ending January 5, 2025, showing a 3.7% increase in revenue to $35,930 million. However, the profit attributable to equity holders before significant items decreased by 20.6% to $739 million. The company declared a 2025 interim dividend of 39 cents per share, with the Dividend Reinvestment Plan remaining active. Woolworths also incorporated two new entities during the reporting period, expanding its operations in the United States and Australia.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.