Woolworths Group Ltd (AU:WOW)
ASX:WOW
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Woolworths Group Ltd
(Sydney:WOW)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
AU$39.00
â–˛(6.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/01/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance indicators (revenue decline, thin/pressured profitability and high leverage) and bearish technical positioning (below key moving averages with oversold RSI). Offsetting these are improved cash flow trends and a relatively positive earnings call with reaffirmed growth guidance, cost-savings progress and eCommerce profitability improvement, while valuation is broadly moderate.
Positive Factors
eCommerce profitability
Sustained double-digit eCommerce sales growth and a near-doubling of directly attributable eComX profit indicate rising unit economics in online fulfilment. Improved picking and last-mile productivity reduce structural cost-to-serve, supporting durable margin improvement as digital penetration grows.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Elevated leverage constrains strategic flexibility and increases vulnerability to interest or cash-flow shocks. Even with improving EBITDA, a debt-to-equity ratio this high limits capacity for incremental M&A, large capex swings, or sustained dividend increases without stricter cash allocation priorities.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
eCommerce profitability
Sustained double-digit eCommerce sales growth and a near-doubling of directly attributable eComX profit indicate rising unit economics in online fulfilment. Improved picking and last-mile productivity reduce structural cost-to-serve, supporting durable margin improvement as digital penetration grows.
Read all positive factors
Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$46.37B
Dividend Yield2.86%
Average Volume (3M)2.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)78.0
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth1.54%
EPS Growth-63.29%
CountryAU
Employees201,413
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding1,221,599,200
10 Day Avg. Volume2,602,115
30 Day Avg. Volume2,546,696
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)7.81
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio18.78
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$35.07Price Target Upside-4.67% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$71.68B
Woolworths Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Woolworths Group Limited is a major retail conglomerate that manages a diverse portfolio of stores. Its extensive operations are structured across several key divisions: The Australian Food segment is responsible for sourcing and distributing food...
How the Company Makes Money
Woolworths Group makes money primarily by selling groceries and everyday household products through its supermarket stores and online channels, generating revenue from the retail margin between what it pays suppliers and what customers pay at chec...
Woolworths Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial half when excluding one-off remediation charges: solid sales growth, strong EBIT and EPS progression before significant items, meaningful eCommerce and complementary business momentum, delivery of $400m cost savings, and a range of sustainability and AI adoption milestones. Key challenges were a large one-off remediation charge that sharply reduced reported NPAT, ongoing supply chain transition costs with multi‑year ramp-up, margin pressures in some categories and heightened competitive intensity in eCommerce. On balance the fundamental trading improvement, cost delivery and strategic progress outweigh the one‑off and transitional headwinds.Positive Updates
Group revenue growth
Group sales increased 3.4% to $37.1 billion for H1 FY26, with all trading segments reporting sales growth.
Negative Updates
Remediation significant items hit earnings
The group recorded significant items before tax of $698 million (remediation of award-covered salary team members following a Federal Court decision). Including significant items, NPAT attributable to owners fell 49.4% to $374 million and EPS declined 49.4%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group revenue growth
Group sales increased 3.4% to $37.1 billion for H1 FY26, with all trading segments reporting sales growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed they are on track to deliver mid‑ to high‑single‑digit reported EBIT growth in Australian Food for FY26 and an improved result in New Zealand Food and BIG W, and reiterated a medium‑term ambition of mid‑ to high‑single‑digit EBIT growth supporting a double‑digit total shareholder‑return target. They confirmed FY26 operating capex of ~$2.0bn (H1 operating capex $913m), reported H1 group sales $37.1bn (+3.4%), group EBIT before significant items $1.7bn (+14.4%), NPAT before significant items $859m (+16.4%) and EPS $0.704 (+16.4%), with H1 operating cash flow before interest and tax $3.2bn (+4.5%) and a cash realization ratio of 95%. Management also flagged delivery of the $400m run‑rate cost savings by December, H1 significant items of $698m (award remediation), eCommerce sales +14.6% and a 93% increase in eComX directly attributable profit, net debt/EBITDA of 2.7x, and a final dividend of $0.45 per share (up 15.4%).Woolworths Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 70.28B | 69.08B | 67.92B | 64.29B | 60.85B | 55.73B |
| Gross Profit | 16.61B | 18.82B | 18.55B | 17.18B | 18.04B | 16.33B |
| EBITDA | 4.58B | 4.57B | 3.53B | 5.36B | 4.51B | 4.90B |
| Net Income | 598.00M | 963.00M | 108.00M | 1.62B | 1.55B | 2.07B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 34.39B | 33.83B | 33.94B | 37.18B | 33.27B | 39.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.29B | 1.27B | 1.30B | 1.14B | 1.03B | 1.01B |
| Total Debt | 26.99B | 17.39B | 16.72B | 15.73B | 16.76B | 14.89B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.63B | 28.87B | 28.37B | 30.61B | 27.17B | 37.50B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.63B | 4.86B | 5.41B | 6.42B | 5.98B | 1.38B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.34B | 2.02B | 1.81B | 2.28B | 1.01B | 2.25B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.95B | 4.55B | 4.36B | 4.80B | 3.43B | 4.64B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.86B | -1.93B | -2.31B | -1.89B | -2.51B | -2.21B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.09B | -2.65B | -1.92B | -2.81B | -1.34B | -3.04B |
Woolworths Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
36.79
Price Trends
35.76
Positive
34.95
Positive
31.43
Positive
Market Momentum
0.93
Negative
70.42
Negative
86.91
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:WOW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.27, above the 50-day MA of 35.76, and above the 200-day MA of 31.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.42 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:WOW.
Woolworths Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | AU$5.89B | 15.75 | 9.59% | 5.12% | -1.17% | -18.45% | |
65 Neutral | AU$3.52B | 12.35 | 17.24% | 5.47% | 4.74% | 6.60% | |
63 Neutral | AU$3.88B | -9.05 | -10.03% | 7.42% | -10.96% | -383.84% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | AU$31.39B | 30.66 | 26.38% | 3.24% | 1.26% | -8.33% | |
54 Neutral | AU$46.37B | 78.00 | 12.60% | 2.86% | 1.54% | -63.29% | |
51 Neutral | AU$1.72B | 208.55 | 0.82% | 1.95% | 1.47% | -76.20% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:WOW
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Woolworths Group Ltd Corporate Events
Woolworths Details New Share Rights Allocation to Director Under US NED Plan
Jun 19, 2026
Woolworths Group Limited has disclosed a change in director Jonathan Alferness’s interests under ASX listing rules, relating to his participation in the company’s US Non-Executive Director (NED) Share Rights Plan. The filing records th...
Woolworths Issues New Unquoted Equity for Employee Incentive Schemes
Jun 18, 2026
Woolworths Group Limited has notified the market of the issue of new unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive schemes. The company will issue 218,463 performance rights and 43,106 share rights, both dated 11 June 2026, which are sub...
Woolworths Director Scott Perkins Increases Shareholding via On‑Market Purchase
Jun 5, 2026
Woolworths Group has disclosed a change in the interests of director Scott Perkins, who increased his holding in the company through an on‑market share purchase. Perkins acquired 4,027 ordinary shares for about $140,542, boosting the number ...
Woolworths Group Lifts Q3 Sales but Warns on Rising Uncertainty
Apr 29, 2026
Woolworths Group reported third-quarter group sales of $18.1 billion, up 4.5% year on year, driven chiefly by a 5.9% rise in Australian Food sales and strong eCommerce growth of 20.2%. The company also saw solid contributions from Australian B2B, ...
Woolworths Updates DRP Pricing on Half‑Year Dividend
Mar 23, 2026
Woolworths Group Limited has updated its notification regarding a dividend on its ordinary fully paid shares for the six‑month period ended 4 January 2026. The update, dated 23 March 2026, specifically revises the Dividend Reinvestment Plan ...
Woolworths Issues New Unquoted Equity Rights Under Employee Incentive Schemes
Mar 20, 2026
Woolworths Group Limited has notified the market of the issue of unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive schemes, comprising 188,119 performance rights (WOWAK) and 209,628 share rights (WOWAA) issued on 16 March 2026. These securit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.