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Woolworths Group Ltd (AU:WOW)
ASX:WOW

Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:WOW

Woolworths Group Ltd

(Sydney:WOW)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
AU$28.00
â–¼(-6.91% Downside)
Woolworths Group Ltd's overall stock score reflects financial pressures from declining revenues and high leverage, despite improved cash flow. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend with overbought conditions. The high P/E ratio indicates overvaluation, while the earnings call revealed ongoing challenges and strategic initiatives. These factors collectively suggest caution for potential investors.
Positive Factors
eCommerce Growth
The significant growth in eCommerce sales indicates a strong adaptation to digital retail trends, enhancing market reach and customer convenience, which supports long-term revenue growth.
Everyday Rewards Program
The success of the Everyday Rewards program boosts customer loyalty and repeat purchases, providing a durable competitive advantage and stable revenue stream.
Sustainability Achievements
Sustainability efforts enhance brand reputation and align with consumer values, potentially driving customer preference and long-term profitability.
Negative Factors
EBIT Decline
A decline in EBIT reflects operational challenges and cost pressures, which may hinder profitability and strategic investments if not addressed.
High Leverage
Significant leverage increases financial risk and limits flexibility, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Customer Value Perception
Deteriorating value perception can weaken competitive positioning and reduce market share, affecting long-term revenue growth.

Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Woolworths Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWoolworths Group Limited operates retail stores. It operates through Australian Food, Australian B2B, New Zealand Food, BIG W, and Other segments. The Australian Food segment procures and resells food and related products, and provides services to customers in Australia. It operates 1,087 Woolworths supermarkets and Metro Food stores. The Australian B2B segment engages in procurement and distribution of food and related products for resale to other businesses, as well as provision of supply chain services to business customers in Australia. The New Zealand Food segment is involved in the procurement and resale of food and drinks, and provides services to retail customers in New Zealand. This segment operates 190 countdown supermarkets. The BIG W segment procures and resells discount general merchandise products to customers in Australia. This segment operates 176 BIG W stores. Woolworths Group Limited also engages in the wholesale operation. The company was formerly known as Woolworths Limited and changed its name to Woolworths Group Limited in December 2017. Woolworths Group Limited was incorporated in 1924 and is based in Bella Vista, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyWoolworths Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of groceries and fresh food products in its supermarkets. The company's revenue model is heavily based on retail sales, with significant income coming from the sale of private label products, which typically have higher margins than branded items. Additionally, Woolworths earns revenue from its online shopping services, where customers can order groceries for delivery or pick-up. The company also benefits from ancillary services, including loyalty programs like the Woolworths Rewards program, which drive customer engagement and repeat purchases. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and investment in technology to enhance supply chain efficiency further contribute to Woolworths' earnings. Seasonal promotions and exclusive product offerings also play a role in boosting sales during peak shopping periods.

Woolworths Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted growth in sales, particularly in eCommerce and Everyday Rewards, alongside achievements in sustainability. However, significant challenges included declines in EBIT, underperformance in BIG W, customer value perception issues, and stock loss concerns. The company is focused on long-term strategic priorities to address these challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Group Sales Increase
Group sales increased by a normalized 3.6% to $69.1 billion, with sales growth in all operating segments. Excluding Petstock, group sales increased 2.9%.
Australian Food eCommerce Growth
Australian food eCommerce sales grew by a normalized 17.4%, driven by on-demand services like MILKRUN and Direct to Boot Now.
Everyday Rewards Program Success
Over 70% of sales in food are captured by Everyday Rewards members. The program has delivered higher advocacy and loyalty, increasing member spending on food.
New Market Expansions
Opened 12 new supermarkets and completed 82 renewals across Australia and New Zealand, with a significant renewal of Hervey Bay post-damage from floods.
Cartology Revenue Growth
Cartology, the media and insights business, saw revenue increase by a normalized 19.5% in F '25 with growth across all channels.
Sustainability Achievements
Delivered an estimated $2.6 billion in societal benefit over 5 years through initiatives addressing hunger, food waste, and decarbonization. Achieved a 6.2% reduction in TRIFR.
Negative Updates
EBIT Decline
Group EBIT declined by a normalized 12.6%, reflecting lower earnings from Australian Food and BIG W segments.
BIG W Losses
BIG W recorded a loss of $63 million in F '25 compared to a loss of $29 million in the prior year, with disappointing financial performance and ongoing challenges.
Challenges in Australian Food
Australian Food EBIT declined 10.5%, with challenges from industrial action, cost inflation, and price investment impacting performance.
Customer Sentiment and Value Perception
Despite improvements in customer scores, the value perception has deteriorated, impacting sales momentum and competitive positioning.
Stock Loss Concerns
A rise in stock loss rates, particularly in the second half, with measures needed to address increased acts of violence and theft.
High Capital Expenditure
Continued high levels of capital expenditure raising concerns about the necessity and efficiency of sustaining CapEx within the business structure.
Company Guidance
In the Woolworths Group FY '25 Full Year Earnings Call, the company reported a 3.6% increase in group sales to $69.1 billion, although group EBIT declined by 12.6% due to various challenges, including industrial action and cost pressures. Excluding Petstock, sales growth was 2.9%. The company cited improving customer scores and a focus on lowering prices as positive signs, despite overall performance falling short of expectations. Woolworths also highlighted strong contributions from eComX, media, rewards, and services. The company invested in lowering shelf prices on 500 items, seeing a 4-point increase in VOC NPS scores. The Everyday Rewards program captured over 70% of food sales, emphasizing its importance in driving customer loyalty. Looking ahead, Woolworths expects mid- to high single-digit EBIT growth in FY '26, with strategic priorities including improving price perception and retail execution, simplifying operations, and expanding complementary businesses.

Woolworths Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Woolworths Group Ltd faces financial pressure with declining revenues and operational challenges. Despite improved cash flow generation, high leverage and low profitability margins pose risks. The company needs to enhance operational efficiency and manage debt levels to strengthen its financial position.
Income Statement
Woolworths Group Ltd has faced challenges in maintaining revenue growth, with a significant decline of 20.2% in the latest year. The gross profit margin remains stable at around 27%, but the net profit margin is low at 1.39%, indicating limited profitability. The negative EBIT margin suggests operational inefficiencies or extraordinary expenses impacting earnings.
Balance Sheet
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.58, indicating significant leverage which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity is relatively strong at 19.81%, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is not provided, but the high leverage remains a concern.
Cash Flow
Woolworths has shown a strong free cash flow growth rate of 61.89%, reflecting improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.37, indicating adequate cash flow relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.44 suggests room for improvement in converting income to free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue69.08B69.08B67.92B64.29B60.85B55.73B
Gross Profit17.56B18.82B18.55B17.18B18.04B16.33B
EBITDA5.15B4.57B3.53B5.36B4.51B4.90B
Net Income963.00M963.00M108.00M1.62B1.55B2.07B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets33.83B33.83B33.94B37.18B33.27B39.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.27B1.27B1.30B1.14B1.03B1.01B
Total Debt17.39B17.39B16.72B15.73B16.76B14.89B
Total Liabilities28.87B28.87B28.37B30.61B27.17B37.50B
Stockholders Equity4.86B4.86B5.41B6.42B5.98B1.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.02B2.02B1.81B2.28B1.01B2.25B
Operating Cash Flow4.55B4.55B4.36B4.80B3.43B4.64B
Investing Cash Flow-2.35B-1.93B-2.31B-1.89B-2.51B-2.21B
Financing Cash Flow-2.23B-2.65B-1.92B-2.81B-1.34B-3.04B

Woolworths Group Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price30.08
Price Trends
50DMA
28.80
Positive
100DMA
28.26
Positive
200DMA
29.65
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.21
Positive
RSI
66.49
Neutral
STOCH
91.61
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:WOW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.39, above the 50-day MA of 28.80, and above the 200-day MA of 29.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:WOW.

Woolworths Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
AU$3.64B12.8117.17%5.47%4.74%6.60%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
62
Neutral
$28.23B26.0428.51%3.24%1.84%-3.62%
56
Neutral
AU$36.59B38.1318.56%2.86%1.70%796.48%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:WOW
Woolworths Group Ltd
30.08
0.84
2.87%
AU:COL
Coles Group
21.03
2.82
15.47%
AU:MTS
Metcash Limited
3.31
0.38
12.93%

Woolworths Group Ltd Corporate Events

Woolworths Group Updates Director’s Interest Notice
Dec 17, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Tracey Fellows, with no changes in the number of ordinary shares held. However, there was an acquisition of 340 NED Share Rights, bringing the total to 701. This update reflects the company’s ongoing management of director interests and equity plans, ensuring transparency and compliance with corporate governance standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Buy with a A$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Seeks Quotation for New Securities
Dec 17, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited has announced an application for the quotation of ordinary securities to the trustee of the NED Equity Plan, which will satisfy future vesting of share rights issued on December 12, 2025. This move is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its equity plans and ensure transparency in its securities dealings, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Buy with a A$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Issues Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Dec 17, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited announced the issuance of 20,489 unquoted share rights under an employee incentive scheme. These securities are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until these restrictions are lifted, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to incentivize its workforce and potentially enhance its operational performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Buy with a A$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Issues New Securities to Enhance Equity Structure
Dec 17, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited has announced the issuance of 3,799 ordinary fully paid securities, effective from December 10, 2025. This move involves the conversion of unquoted options or other convertible securities, which may impact the company’s equity structure and potentially influence its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Buy with a A$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Announces Cessation of Share Rights
Dec 17, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited announced the cessation of 4,221 share rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This announcement may affect the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, as it indicates a change in the company’s securities management.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Buy with a A$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Faces Class Action Over Alleged Underpayments
Dec 15, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd has been notified of class action proceedings initiated by Shine Lawyers in the Federal Court of Australia. The case involves allegations of potential underpayments to team members in South Australia, linked to outdated legislation that classified Sundays as public holidays. Woolworths Group intends to contest these claims and does not consider the proceedings to be market sensitive.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Hold with a A$29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Highlights Moorebank Distribution Centers in Investor Presentation
Dec 3, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd has released a presentation related to a site visit at its Moorebank distribution centers. This visit underscores the company’s commitment to enhancing its distribution capabilities, which is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the retail sector. The presentation is part of Woolworths’ ongoing efforts to engage with investors and analysts, highlighting the strategic importance of its logistics operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Hold with a A$29.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Faces Class Action Over Underpayment Disclosures
Dec 1, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd has acknowledged the commencement of shareholder class action proceedings in the Federal Court of Australia, initiated by Dutton Law Pty Ltd. The legal action pertains to allegations of inadequate disclosures concerning team member underpayments. Woolworths Group has stated that it does not consider these proceedings to be market sensitive and intends to defend against the allegations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Hold with a A$29.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Updates Director’s Interest Notice
Nov 26, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically regarding Amanda Bardwell’s securities holdings. There were no changes in the number of ordinary shares held by Ms. Bardwell or the Jefferson John Family Trust. However, there were updates to her Performance Share Rights and Share Rights, with new allocations under the F26 Woolworths Incentive Share Plan and the F25 Deferred Short Term Incentive Plan. These changes reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive incentives with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Hold with a A$29.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentives
Nov 26, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited has announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities under an employee incentive scheme. This includes 2,568,743 performance rights and 1,418,367 share rights, which are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until these restrictions are lifted. This move is part of the company’s strategy to incentivize employees and align their interests with the company’s long-term goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Hold with a A$29.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Announces Cessation of Securities Due to Unmet Conditions
Nov 20, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited announced the cessation of certain securities, specifically 425,211 performance rights and 19,558 share rights, due to unmet conditions. This development may affect the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting on the company’s operational adjustments and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Hold with a A$29.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Announces Director Change
Oct 31, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited announced that Holly Kramer has ceased to be a director as of October 30, 2025. The notice details her relevant interests in securities, including shares held in Bond Street Custodians Limited and under the Woolworths Group Non-Executive Directors Equity Plan. This change in directorship may impact the company’s governance and stakeholder engagement strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Hold with a A$29.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group AGM: Key Resolutions and Outcomes
Oct 30, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd held its Annual General Meeting on October 30, 2025, where all resolutions were decided by poll. Key outcomes included the re-election of directors and the adoption of the remuneration report, while a special resolution to amend the constitution was not carried. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and strategic direction, impacting its stakeholders and reinforcing its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Hold with a A$29.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Faces Financial Challenges in FY25
Oct 30, 2025

Woolworths Group’s Annual General Meeting highlighted the company’s financial challenges in FY25, with a notable decline in EBIT due to cost-of-living pressures, price reductions, and supply chain disruptions. Despite improved sales in some areas, the overall performance fell short of expectations, prompting the introduction of a new incentive for senior leaders to address immediate priorities and improve future outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Hold with a A$29.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Reports Modest Q1 Sales Growth Amid Strategic Shifts
Oct 28, 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd reported a 2.7% increase in total first-quarter sales, reaching $18.5 billion, despite performance being below expectations. The company saw growth in Australian Food sales by 2.1% and a significant 13.2% rise in eCommerce sales, driven by customer demand for convenience. New Zealand Food sales also showed improvement, with a 3.2% increase. Woolworths is optimistic about the upcoming festive season, with plans to enhance customer experience and product offerings, although it acknowledges that the full impact of its strategic actions will take time to materialize.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Hold with a A$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Woolworths Group Appoints New Non-Executive Director
Oct 3, 2025

Woolworths Group Limited has announced the appointment of Ken Meyer as a non-executive director, effective from October 1, 2025. This strategic addition to the board is expected to enhance the company’s governance and potentially influence its strategic direction, reflecting a commitment to strengthening leadership and oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:WOW) stock is a Hold with a A$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woolworths Group Ltd stock, see the AU:WOW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2025