Coles Group (COL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $28.23B
• Dividend Yield: 3.24%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.38M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.32
• Revenue Growth: 1.84%
• EPS Growth: -3.62%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 115,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 1,342,138,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,316,402
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,384,302
• PEG Ratio: -7.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.63
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.17
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.77
• 1Y Price Target: $25.52
• Price Target Upside: 21.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$23.50 ▲(11.75% Upside)

Coles Group's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and stable financial health, despite technical indicators showing bearish momentum and valuation concerns. The company's operational efficiency and cost-saving achievements are significant strengths, while high leverage and market challenges pose risks.

Coles Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Coles Group Limited operates as a retailer in Australia. It operates through Supermarkets, Liquor, and Express segments. The company operates 835 supermarkets; and coles.com.au, which offers a choice of home delivery, including same-day, overnight drop and go services, and pick up from click and collect locations. Its Coles Financial Services provides insurance, credit cards, and personal loans to Australian families. The company is also involved in the retailing of liquor through its 933 stores under the Liquorland, First Choice, First Choice Liquor, and Vintage Cellars brand names. In addition, it operates 711 fuel and convenience stores; and operates as flybuys loyalty program. The company was formerly known as Coles Myer Ltd. and changed its name to Coles Group Limited. Coles Group Limited was founded in 1914 and is based in Hawthorn East, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Coles Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of groceries and everyday products at its supermarkets. The company's revenue model is built on high-volume sales, driven by its large customer base and extensive distribution network. Key revenue streams include in-store sales, online grocery purchases, and fuel sales from its Coles Express convenience stores. Additionally, Coles benefits from private label products, which typically yield higher margins compared to branded goods. Partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers also play a crucial role in optimizing procurement and pricing strategies, further enhancing profitability. Seasonal promotions, loyalty programs, and a focus on customer experience contribute to retaining and expanding their customer base, driving consistent revenue growth.

Coles Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Coles Group demonstrates operational efficiency with stable margins but faces challenges in revenue growth and high leverage. The company's strong return on equity and improved cash flow management are positive indicators, though the high debt levels warrant caution. Overall, the financial health is stable but requires careful management of leverage and growth strategies.

Income Statement

Coles Group's income statement shows a stable gross profit margin and a slight decline in net profit margin over the years. The revenue growth rate has been inconsistent, with a recent decline, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain relatively stable, suggesting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks in a volatile market. However, the return on equity remains strong, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement highlights a significant improvement in free cash flow growth, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has fluctuated, indicating variability in cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	44.49B	44.35B	43.68B	40.59B	38.34B	38.95B
Gross Profit	11.84B	11.70B	11.38B	9.10B	8.56B	8.67B
EBITDA	3.84B	3.22B	3.21B	3.40B	3.27B	3.44B
Net Income	1.08B	1.08B	1.12B	1.10B	1.05B	1.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.29B	20.29B	19.87B	20.49B	21.17B	20.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	705.00M	705.00M	675.00M	597.00M	589.00M	787.00M
Total Debt	10.33B	10.33B	10.07B	8.97B	9.78B	9.90B
Total Liabilities	16.49B	16.49B	16.25B	17.13B	18.05B	17.67B
Stockholders Equity	3.81B	3.81B	3.62B	3.36B	3.12B	2.81B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.45B	1.45B	1.12B	1.29B	1.42B	1.56B
Operating Cash Flow	2.94B	2.94B	2.79B	2.81B	2.69B	2.84B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.36B	-1.36B	-1.51B	-1.00B	-1.14B	-1.11B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.54B	-1.54B	-1.20B	-1.80B	-1.75B	-1.94B

Coles Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.03
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:COL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.43, below the 50-day MA of 21.92, and below the 200-day MA of 21.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:COL.

Coles Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TWE	70 Outperform	AU$4.17B	9.60	9.13%	7.42%	6.47%	281.30%
MTS	65 Neutral	AU$3.64B	12.81	17.17%	5.47%	4.74%	6.60%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
COL	62 Neutral	$28.23B	26.04	28.51%	3.24%	1.84%	-3.62%
ING	60 Neutral	AU$968.77M	10.80	36.84%	7.63%	-3.36%	-11.53%
WOW	56 Neutral	$36.59B	38.13	18.56%	2.86%	1.70%	796.48%
BGA	51 Neutral	AU$1.83B	-214.34	-0.68%	1.95%	0.49%	-127.84%

Coles Group Corporate Events

Coles Group Issues New Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Coles Group Limited announced the issuance of 680,774 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. These securities are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to incentivize and retain its workforce, which could impact its operational efficiency and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COL) stock is a Hold with a A$23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coles Group stock, see the AU:COL Stock Forecast page.

Coles Group Announces Director’s Interest Change

Coles Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest in securities, specifically involving Leah Weckert. The change was related to direct and indirect interests, with Citicorp Nominees Pty Ltd acting as custodian for CPU Share Plans Pty Ltd under the company’s Equity Incentive Plan. This update is part of the company’s compliance with ASX listing rules, reflecting transparency in its governance and operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COL) stock is a Hold with a A$23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coles Group stock, see the AU:COL Stock Forecast page.

Coles Group 2025 AGM Results: Key Resolutions Passed

Coles Group Limited announced the results of its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all resolutions were decided by a poll. Key outcomes included the approval of the re-election of directors and the adoption of the remuneration report, while an amendment to the constitution was not carried. The meeting’s results reflect the company’s governance and strategic decisions, impacting its operational and leadership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COL) stock is a Buy with a A$26.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coles Group stock, see the AU:COL Stock Forecast page.

Coles Group Highlights Strategic Achievements and Growth at 2025 AGM

At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, Coles Group Limited’s CEO Leah Weckert highlighted the company’s achievements in enhancing customer experience and expanding its product range. The company reported significant growth in its Exclusive to Coles range and Flybuys loyalty program, while also seeing a rise in eCommerce sales and the successful rollout of the ‘Simply Liquorland’ brand. These efforts underscore Coles’ commitment to value and innovation, positioning it strongly in the competitive retail market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COL) stock is a Buy with a A$26.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coles Group stock, see the AU:COL Stock Forecast page.

Coles Group’s Strategic Advancements and Financial Growth in 2025

At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, Coles Group’s new Chairman, Peter Allen, highlighted the company’s achievements and future direction. The company reported a net profit after tax of $1.07 billion for the 2025 financial year, marking a 2.4% increase from the previous year. Coles has made significant advancements in automation with the operation of Customer Fulfilment Centres and Automated Distribution Centres, enhancing their online offerings and supply chain resilience. These developments are expected to improve product availability and operational efficiency, reinforcing Coles’ commitment to delivering quality and value to its customers.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COL) stock is a Buy with a A$26.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coles Group stock, see the AU:COL Stock Forecast page.

Coles Group Reports Strong First Quarter Sales Growth

Coles Group reported a 3.9% increase in total group sales revenue for the first quarter of 2026, driven by a 4.8% growth in supermarket sales. The company attributes this success to its focus on value, quality, and customer experience, as well as its major transformation projects. Despite a slight decline in liquor sales, the simplification of the ‘Simply Liquorland’ banner has positively impacted sales. The company’s efforts in eCommerce have also been fruitful, with penetration reaching 13.3%.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COL) stock is a Buy with a A$25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coles Group stock, see the AU:COL Stock Forecast page.

Coles Group Withdraws Requisitioned Resolution Ahead of AGM

Coles Group Limited announced the withdrawal of one of the three requisitioned resolutions initially set for consideration at its 2025 Annual General Meeting. This development does not impact the validity of the voting form previously issued, and any votes on the withdrawn resolution will be disregarded, ensuring a streamlined process for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COL) stock is a Buy with a A$25.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coles Group stock, see the AU:COL Stock Forecast page.