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Coles Group Ltd. (AU:COL)
:COL

Coles Group (COL) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:COL

Coles Group

(OTC:COL)

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Neutral 62 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$23.50
▲(9.10% Upside)
Coles Group's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and stable financial health, despite technical indicators showing bearish momentum and valuation concerns. The company's operational efficiency and cost-saving achievements are significant strengths, while high leverage and market challenges pose risks.

Coles Group (COL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Coles Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionColes Group (COL) is one of Australia's largest retailers, primarily engaged in the supermarket and grocery sector. The company operates through various segments, including Coles Supermarkets, Coles Express, and Coles Online, providing a wide range of products such as fresh food, groceries, and household items. Coles is known for its commitment to quality and sustainability, offering customers a diverse selection of private label and branded products across its extensive store network and online platforms.
How the Company Makes MoneyColes Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of groceries and everyday products at its supermarkets. The company's revenue model is built on high-volume sales, driven by its large customer base and extensive distribution network. Key revenue streams include in-store sales, online grocery purchases, and fuel sales from its Coles Express convenience stores. Additionally, Coles benefits from private label products, which typically yield higher margins compared to branded goods. Partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers also play a crucial role in optimizing procurement and pricing strategies, further enhancing profitability. Seasonal promotions, loyalty programs, and a focus on customer experience contribute to retaining and expanding their customer base, driving consistent revenue growth.

Coles Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 25, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance by Coles Group with significant achievements in cost savings, team engagement, and e-commerce growth, but faced challenges in tobacco sales and the subdued liquor market.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Cost Savings
Coles Group delivered record cost savings of $327 million through the Simplify and Save to Invest program, offsetting inflation and allowing reinvestment in the business.
Strong E-commerce Growth
E-commerce business reported a strong year of growth with 24.4% revenue growth in Supermarkets and 7.2% growth in Liquor.
High Team Member Engagement
Achieved the highest-ever team member engagement score, placing in the top quartile of Australian companies.
Sustainability Achievements
Reduced combined Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 71.4% from FY '24 and sourced 100% renewable energy.
Supermarkets Sales Growth
Supermarket sales revenue increased by 4.3%, supported by solid volume growth and value-focused campaigns.
Negative Updates
Tobacco Sales Decline
New packaging laws and the growth of the illicit market led to a decline in tobacco sales.
Liquor Market Challenges
The liquor market remains subdued, with sales revenue growth in Liquor being only 1.1%.
Higher Energy and Wage Costs
Faced pressure on costs due to higher energy costs and significant wage increases.
Company Guidance
During the Coles Group FY '25 results briefing, CEO Leah Weckert highlighted several key metrics reflecting the company's progress and financial outcomes. The group reported a normalized EBITDA and EBIT growth of 11% and 7.5%, respectively, with underlying EBITDA and EBIT increasing by 10.7% and 6.8%. Underlying NPAT from continuing operations rose by 3.1% to $1.2 billion, while reported NPAT, inclusive of significant items, increased by 2.4%. The company achieved record cost savings of $327 million through its Simplify and Save to Invest program. The Supermarkets segment saw a 4.3% increase in sales revenue, while Liquor experienced a 1.1% rise. The group's e-commerce business exhibited strong performance, with a 24.4% revenue growth in Supermarkets and 7.2% in Liquor. Additionally, customer satisfaction scores improved, and the company reported its highest-ever team member engagement score, placing it in the top quartile of Australian companies.

Coles Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Coles Group demonstrates operational efficiency with stable margins but faces challenges in revenue growth and high leverage. The company's strong return on equity and improved cash flow management are positive indicators, though the high debt levels warrant caution. Overall, the financial health is stable but requires careful management of leverage and growth strategies.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Coles Group's income statement shows a stable gross profit margin and a slight decline in net profit margin over the years. The revenue growth rate has been inconsistent, with a recent decline, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain relatively stable, suggesting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks in a volatile market. However, the return on equity remains strong, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The cash flow statement highlights a significant improvement in free cash flow growth, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has fluctuated, indicating variability in cash flow relative to earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue44.49B44.35B43.68B40.59B38.34B38.95B
Gross Profit11.84B11.70B11.38B9.10B8.56B8.67B
EBITDA3.84B3.22B3.21B3.40B3.27B3.44B
Net Income1.08B1.08B1.12B1.10B1.05B1.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets20.29B20.29B19.87B20.49B21.17B20.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments705.00M705.00M675.00M597.00M589.00M787.00M
Total Debt10.33B10.33B10.07B8.97B9.78B9.90B
Total Liabilities16.49B16.49B16.25B17.13B18.05B17.67B
Stockholders Equity3.81B3.81B3.62B3.36B3.12B2.81B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.45B1.45B1.12B1.29B1.42B1.56B
Operating Cash Flow2.94B2.94B2.79B2.81B2.69B2.84B
Investing Cash Flow-1.36B-1.36B-1.51B-1.00B-1.14B-1.11B
Financing Cash Flow-1.54B-1.54B-1.20B-1.80B-1.75B-1.94B

Coles Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price21.54
Price Trends
50DMA
22.33
Negative
100DMA
22.47
Negative
200DMA
21.54
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.21
Positive
RSI
35.81
Neutral
STOCH
37.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:COL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.97, below the 50-day MA of 22.33, and above the 200-day MA of 21.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:COL.

Coles Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
AU$3.95B9.089.13%8.18%6.47%281.30%
65
Neutral
AU$3.60B12.7017.17%5.49%4.74%6.60%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
62
Neutral
AU$28.91B26.6728.51%3.20%1.84%-3.62%
60
Neutral
AU$887.11M9.8936.84%7.95%-3.36%-11.53%
56
Neutral
AU$35.67B37.1718.56%2.86%1.70%796.48%
51
Neutral
AU$1.89B-221.51-0.68%1.94%0.49%-127.84%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:COL
Coles Group
21.54
3.36
18.46%
AU:WOW
Woolworths Group Ltd
29.32
-0.18
-0.62%
AU:MTS
Metcash Limited
3.28
0.28
9.44%
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
4.89
-6.07
-55.37%
AU:ING
Inghams Group Ltd.
2.39
-0.49
-16.96%
AU:BGA
Bega Cheese Limited
6.18
0.56
10.04%

Coles Group Corporate Events

Coles Group 2025 AGM Results: Key Resolutions Passed
Nov 11, 2025

Coles Group Limited announced the results of its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all resolutions were decided by a poll. Key outcomes included the approval of the re-election of directors and the adoption of the remuneration report, while an amendment to the constitution was not carried. The meeting’s results reflect the company’s governance and strategic decisions, impacting its operational and leadership structure.

Coles Group Highlights Strategic Achievements and Growth at 2025 AGM
Nov 10, 2025

At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, Coles Group Limited’s CEO Leah Weckert highlighted the company’s achievements in enhancing customer experience and expanding its product range. The company reported significant growth in its Exclusive to Coles range and Flybuys loyalty program, while also seeing a rise in eCommerce sales and the successful rollout of the ‘Simply Liquorland’ brand. These efforts underscore Coles’ commitment to value and innovation, positioning it strongly in the competitive retail market.

Coles Group’s Strategic Advancements and Financial Growth in 2025
Nov 10, 2025

At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, Coles Group’s new Chairman, Peter Allen, highlighted the company’s achievements and future direction. The company reported a net profit after tax of $1.07 billion for the 2025 financial year, marking a 2.4% increase from the previous year. Coles has made significant advancements in automation with the operation of Customer Fulfilment Centres and Automated Distribution Centres, enhancing their online offerings and supply chain resilience. These developments are expected to improve product availability and operational efficiency, reinforcing Coles’ commitment to delivering quality and value to its customers.

Coles Group Reports Strong First Quarter Sales Growth
Oct 29, 2025

Coles Group reported a 3.9% increase in total group sales revenue for the first quarter of 2026, driven by a 4.8% growth in supermarket sales. The company attributes this success to its focus on value, quality, and customer experience, as well as its major transformation projects. Despite a slight decline in liquor sales, the simplification of the ‘Simply Liquorland’ banner has positively impacted sales. The company’s efforts in eCommerce have also been fruitful, with penetration reaching 13.3%.

Coles Group Withdraws Requisitioned Resolution Ahead of AGM
Oct 2, 2025

Coles Group Limited announced the withdrawal of one of the three requisitioned resolutions initially set for consideration at its 2025 Annual General Meeting. This development does not impact the validity of the voting form previously issued, and any votes on the withdrawn resolution will be disregarded, ensuring a streamlined process for stakeholders.

Coles Group to Quote Over 800,000 New Securities on ASX
Sep 24, 2025

Coles Group Limited has announced the quotation of 833,063 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of September 22, 2025. This move is part of a dividend or distribution plan, potentially enhancing the company’s market liquidity and providing value to shareholders.

Coles Group Announces Change in Director’s Interest Notice
Sep 19, 2025

Coles Group Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically regarding Leah Weckert’s direct and indirect interests in securities. This update, in compliance with ASX listing rules, highlights the company’s commitment to transparency and regulatory adherence, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and reinforcing corporate governance practices.

Coles Group Updates Dividend Distribution Details
Sep 17, 2025

Coles Group Limited has announced an update to its previous dividend distribution announcement, specifically regarding the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) price. This update pertains to the dividend distribution for the financial period ending on June 29, 2025, and reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to shareholder returns.

Coles Group Announces Hybrid Format for 2025 Annual General Meeting
Sep 17, 2025

Coles Group Limited has announced the details for its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM), scheduled for November 11, 2025. The AGM will be conducted as a hybrid meeting, allowing shareholders to participate either in person at Melbourne Park or remotely via an online platform. Shareholders are encouraged to vote in advance or appoint a proxy if unable to attend. The meeting will provide an opportunity for shareholders to engage with the company’s management, ask questions, and vote on important matters. This approach reflects Coles’ commitment to accessibility and shareholder engagement, ensuring all stakeholders have the opportunity to participate in the governance process.

Coles Group Releases Voting Form for 2025 Annual General Meeting
Sep 17, 2025

Coles Group Limited has released the voting form for its 2025 Annual General Meeting, as authorized by the Board. This announcement outlines the procedures for shareholders to cast their votes, either directly or through a proxy, and emphasizes the importance of shareholder participation in the upcoming meeting.

Coles Group Announces Director Terry Bowen’s Retirement
Sep 17, 2025

Coles Group Limited announced the retirement of Terry Bowen as a director, effective 15 October 2025, as he transitions to a full-time executive role. Bowen, who joined the board in October 2022, has been a key member of the Audit and Risk Committee and the Nomination Committee, contributing significantly to the company’s governance. His departure marks a notable change in the board’s composition, potentially impacting the company’s strategic direction.

Coles Group Updates Dividend Distribution Details
Sep 10, 2025

Coles Group Limited has updated its previous announcement regarding the dividend distribution for the period ending June 29, 2025. The update specifically addresses changes in currency information related to the distribution, which is set to be paid on ordinary fully paid securities. This announcement may impact stakeholders by providing clarity on the financial details of the dividend, ensuring accurate financial planning and expectations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2025