Coles Group Ltd. (AU:COL)
ASX:COL
Top Page
Coles Group
(Sydney:COL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$24.00
â–²(5.40% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is driven mainly by stable overall financial performance with improving cash flow and a supportive earnings call focused on cost savings and e-commerce growth. These positives are partly offset by a weak technical setup (trading below key moving averages with soft momentum) and a less compelling valuation due to a relatively high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
E‑commerce acceleration
Sustained 27% e‑commerce growth and app-driven sales now over half of online revenue signal a durable channel shift. Higher online penetration supports recurring customer value, better data-driven merchandising and scale economics in fulfillment, improving long-term margins and retention.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Significant debt-to-equity creates persistent financial risk: higher interest sensitivity, less flexibility for large discretionary investments or M&A, and reduced buffer against demand downturns. Even with strong ROE, leverage constrains strategic optionality and increases downside volatility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
E‑commerce acceleration
Sustained 27% e‑commerce growth and app-driven sales now over half of online revenue signal a durable channel shift. Higher online penetration supports recurring customer value, better data-driven merchandising and scale economics in fulfillment, improving long-term margins and retention.
Read all positive factors
Coles Group (COL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$30.44B
Dividend Yield3.24%
Average Volume (3M)2.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.0
Beta (1Y)0.05
Revenue Growth1.84%
EPS Growth-3.62%
CountryAU
Employees115,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.38
Shares Outstanding1,343,143,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,316,402
30 Day Avg. Volume2,384,302
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-7.23
Price to Book (P/B)7.32
Price to Sales (P/S)0.63
P/FCF Ratio19.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$23.25Price Target Upside2.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$45.63B
Coles Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Coles Group Limited operates as a retailer in Australia. It operates through Supermarkets, Liquor, and Express segments. The company operates 835 supermarkets; and coles.com.au, which offers a choice of home delivery, including same-day, overnight...
How the Company Makes Money
Coles Group makes money mainly by selling products to consumers through its store network and online platforms. The core revenue stream is retail sales from Coles supermarkets, where the company earns revenue at the point of sale across major groc...
Coles Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive operating and financial picture: strong group revenue and margin expansion, notable e‑commerce acceleration, meaningful cost savings from the SSI program, improved customer satisfaction and retention, and continued investment in automation and sustainability. Key challenges include a weak liquor segment (notably large warehouse formats), tobacco volume decline, near‑term cash timing noise, CODB growth from channel investment, and inflationary pressures in red meat and some dairy categories. Management communicated confidence the timing impacts will normalize in H2 and emphasized plans to optimize liquor warehouses and continue reinvesting efficiencies into customer value.Positive Updates
Strong Group Financial Performance
Group sales revenue of $23.6 billion, up 2.5%; group EBITDA $2.2 billion, up 7.8%; group EBIT $1.2 billion, up 10.2% (excluding significant items); NPAT up 12.5% (excluding significant items). Board declared fully franked interim dividend of $0.41 per share, up 10.8%.
Negative Updates
Liquor Segment Softness and Competitive Intensity
Liquor sales revenue declined 3.2% in the half. Liquor EBIT was impacted by softer top line and $13 million of one‑off costs related to Simply Liquorland conversions. Competitive intensity, particularly at the big‑box end, disproportionately impacted Liquorland warehouse stores (≈10% of network). Like‑for‑like liquor sales were down ~2.5% at the start of the new quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Financial Performance
Group sales revenue of $23.6 billion, up 2.5%; group EBITDA $2.2 billion, up 7.8%; group EBIT $1.2 billion, up 10.2% (excluding significant items); NPAT up 12.5% (excluding significant items). Board declared fully franked interim dividend of $0.41 per share, up 10.8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Coles reiterated a fiscally disciplined outlook, keeping full‑year operating capital expenditure at about A$1.2bn (H1 accrued CapEx A$476m), expecting full‑year cash realization of 100% (H1 cash realization 69% or 94% adjusted for an extra ~A$560m payment run), and confirming SSI savings of A$133m in H1 (≈A$700m since FY24) with the program on track to deliver >A$1bn over four years; trading to date showed supermarket revenue up 3.7% in the first seven weeks of Q3 (5.3% ex‑tobacco), e‑commerce penetration is now >13% with e‑commerce sales +27% in H1, the app’s monthly active visitors +32% and the app now drives 54% of e‑commerce revenue, depreciation is expected to rise roughly A$100m for the year, funding headroom includes A$1.9bn undrawn facilities and a 4.4‑year weighted average drawn debt maturity, and the Board declared a fully franked interim dividend of A$0.41 per share (+10.8%) with ~A$600m of franking credits remaining.Coles Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 45.08B | 44.35B | 43.68B | 40.59B | 38.34B | 38.95B |
| Gross Profit | 12.11B | 11.70B | 11.38B | 9.10B | 8.56B | 8.67B |
| EBITDA | 3.80B | 3.22B | 3.21B | 3.40B | 3.27B | 3.44B |
| Net Income | 1.01B | 1.08B | 1.12B | 1.10B | 1.05B | 1.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.39B | 20.29B | 19.87B | 20.49B | 21.17B | 20.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 598.00M | 705.00M | 675.00M | 597.00M | 589.00M | 787.00M |
| Total Debt | 17.80B | 10.33B | 10.07B | 8.97B | 9.78B | 9.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.51B | 16.49B | 16.25B | 17.13B | 18.05B | 17.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.88B | 3.81B | 3.62B | 3.36B | 3.12B | 2.81B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.56B | 1.45B | 1.12B | 1.29B | 1.42B | 1.56B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.09B | 2.94B | 2.79B | 2.81B | 2.69B | 2.84B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.43B | -1.36B | -1.51B | -1.00B | -1.14B | -1.11B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.69B | -1.54B | -1.20B | -1.80B | -1.75B | -1.94B |
Coles Group Technical Analysis
Positive
22.77
Price Trends
21.43
Positive
21.31
Positive
21.46
Positive
Market Momentum
0.39
Negative
66.68
Neutral
83.38
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:COL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.92, above the 50-day MA of 21.43, and above the 200-day MA of 21.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.38 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:COL.
Coles Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | AU$5.80B | 6.65 | 9.59% | 5.12% | -2.04% | -16.79% | |
65 Neutral | AU$3.30B | 7.36 | 17.24% | 5.47% | 4.74% | 6.60% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | AU$30.44B | 14.02 | 26.38% | 3.24% | 1.84% | -3.62% | |
57 Neutral | AU$3.16B | -1.63 | -10.03% | 7.42% | 6.47% | 281.30% | |
55 Neutral | AU$44.71B | 23.98 | 12.60% | 2.86% | 1.70% | 796.48% | |
51 Neutral | AU$1.82B | 9.86 | 0.82% | 1.95% | 0.49% | -127.84% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:COL
Coles Group
22.66
2.24
10.95%
AU:WOW
Woolworths Group Ltd
36.75
6.38
21.02%
AU:MTS
Metcash Limited
3.00
>-0.01
-0.23%
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
3.91
-4.26
-52.12%
AU:BGA
Bega Cheese Limited
5.96
0.88
17.39%
AU:EDV
Endeavour Group Ltd
3.23
-0.56
-14.71%
Coles Group Corporate Events
Coles Seeks ASX Quotation for Over 1 Million New Shares
Mar 31, 2026
Coles Group Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 1,004,921 new fully paid ordinary shares, issued on 30 March 2026 under a dividend or distribution plan. The additional securities modestly increase the company’s share count and re...
Coles Updates Dividend Reinvestment Plan Pricing for January 2026 Period
Mar 23, 2026
Coles Group Limited has updated its notification to the ASX regarding a dividend on its ordinary fully paid shares, relating to the six-month period ended 4 January 2026. The latest filing, dated 24 March 2026, revises the Dividend Reinvestment Pl...
Coles Updates ASX Dividend Notice With Revised Currency Details
Mar 16, 2026
Coles Group Limited has updated its notification to the ASX regarding an upcoming dividend on its ordinary fully paid shares, tied to the six‑month period ending 4 January 2026. The update specifically revises the currency information in the...
Coles lifts underlying earnings on strong supermarket and online growth
Feb 26, 2026
Coles Group reported half-year group sales revenue of $23.6 billion, up 2.5%, and group EBIT excluding significant items of $1.23 billion, an increase of 10.2%, while underlying NPAT rose 12.5% to $676 million and an interim fully franked dividend...
Coles declares AUD 0.41 interim dividend for half year to January 2026
Feb 26, 2026
Coles Group Limited has declared an ordinary fully paid dividend of AUD 0.41 per share relating to the six‑month period ended 4 January 2026. The dividend will trade ex‑dividend on 10 March 2026, with a record date of 11 March 2026 and...
Coles files half-year results and launches analyst briefing
Feb 26, 2026
Coles Group has lodged its Appendix 4D, Half Year Directors’ Report, Half Year Financial Report and the Independent Auditor’s review report for the 27 weeks ended 4 January 2026 with the Australian Securities Exchange. The release of t...
Coles Sets Date for 2026 Half-Year Results and Analyst Briefing
Jan 30, 2026
Coles Group has scheduled the release of its 2026 half-year financial results for Friday, 27 February 2026, signalling an upcoming update on the company’s trading performance and financial health. The company will host a webcast analyst brie...
Coles to Defend Class Action Over South Australian Employee Entitlements
Jan 29, 2026
Coles Group has acknowledged that a class action has been filed in the Federal Court of Australia against its subsidiary Coles Supermarkets Australia Pty Ltd by Shine Lawyers. The proceedings concern alleged entitlements owed to Coles supermarket ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.