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Coles Group
(Sydney:COL)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$25.00
▲(10.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:02/28/26
The score is driven mainly by stable overall financial performance with improving cash flow and a supportive earnings call focused on cost savings and e-commerce growth. These positives are partly offset by a weak technical setup (trading below key moving averages with soft momentum) and a less compelling valuation due to a relatively high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation and liquidity
Sustained operating cash flow and substantial undrawn facilities provide durable liquidity and funding optionality. With adjusted cash realization near 100% and a multi‑year debt maturity profile, Coles can fund capex, automation and dividends while retaining flexibility to manage cyclicality or pursue strategic initiatives.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage on the balance sheet
Significant leverage constrains financial flexibility over the medium term, increasing sensitivity to cash timing and interest costs. High debt levels can limit strategic optionality, raise refinancing risk in stressed conditions, and make capital allocation (capex, buybacks, dividends) more contingent on cash performance.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation and liquidity
Sustained operating cash flow and substantial undrawn facilities provide durable liquidity and funding optionality. With adjusted cash realization near 100% and a multi‑year debt maturity profile, Coles can fund capex, automation and dividends while retaining flexibility to manage cyclicality or pursue strategic initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Coles Group (COL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$31.64B
Dividend Yield3.24%
Average Volume (3M)2.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.1
Beta (1Y)0.03
Revenue Growth1.26%
EPS Growth-8.33%
CountryAU
Employees115,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.76
Shares Outstanding1,343,143,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,316,402
30 Day Avg. Volume2,384,302
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-7.20
Price to Book (P/B)7.32
Price to Sales (P/S)0.63
P/FCF Ratio19.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$23.93Price Target Upside6.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$47.17B
Coles Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Coles Group Limited functions as a leading retailer across Australia, with its operations divided into Supermarkets, Liquor, and Express segments. The company oversees 835 supermarkets, alongside its online platform, coles.com.au, which provides f...
How the Company Makes Money
Coles Group makes money mainly by selling groceries and everyday household products to consumers through its supermarket network and digital channels. Revenue is primarily generated at the point of sale from branded and private-label products acro...
Coles Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive operating and financial picture: strong group revenue and margin expansion, notable e‑commerce acceleration, meaningful cost savings from the SSI program, improved customer satisfaction and retention, and continued investment in automation and sustainability. Key challenges include a weak liquor segment (notably large warehouse formats), tobacco volume decline, near‑term cash timing noise, CODB growth from channel investment, and inflationary pressures in red meat and some dairy categories. Management communicated confidence the timing impacts will normalize in H2 and emphasized plans to optimize liquor warehouses and continue reinvesting efficiencies into customer value.Positive Updates
Strong Group Financial Performance
Group sales revenue of $23.6 billion, up 2.5%; group EBITDA $2.2 billion, up 7.8%; group EBIT $1.2 billion, up 10.2% (excluding significant items); NPAT up 12.5% (excluding significant items). Board declared fully franked interim dividend of $0.41 per share, up 10.8%.
Negative Updates
Liquor Segment Softness and Competitive Intensity
Liquor sales revenue declined 3.2% in the half. Liquor EBIT was impacted by softer top line and $13 million of one‑off costs related to Simply Liquorland conversions. Competitive intensity, particularly at the big‑box end, disproportionately impacted Liquorland warehouse stores (≈10% of network). Like‑for‑like liquor sales were down ~2.5% at the start of the new quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Financial Performance
Group sales revenue of $23.6 billion, up 2.5%; group EBITDA $2.2 billion, up 7.8%; group EBIT $1.2 billion, up 10.2% (excluding significant items); NPAT up 12.5% (excluding significant items). Board declared fully franked interim dividend of $0.41 per share, up 10.8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Coles reiterated a fiscally disciplined outlook, keeping full‑year operating capital expenditure at about A$1.2bn (H1 accrued CapEx A$476m), expecting full‑year cash realization of 100% (H1 cash realization 69% or 94% adjusted for an extra ~A$560m payment run), and confirming SSI savings of A$133m in H1 (≈A$700m since FY24) with the program on track to deliver >A$1bn over four years; trading to date showed supermarket revenue up 3.7% in the first seven weeks of Q3 (5.3% ex‑tobacco), e‑commerce penetration is now >13% with e‑commerce sales +27% in H1, the app’s monthly active visitors +32% and the app now drives 54% of e‑commerce revenue, depreciation is expected to rise roughly A$100m for the year, funding headroom includes A$1.9bn undrawn facilities and a 4.4‑year weighted average drawn debt maturity, and the Board declared a fully franked interim dividend of A$0.41 per share (+10.8%) with ~A$600m of franking credits remaining.Coles Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 45.08B | 44.35B | 43.68B | 40.59B | 38.34B | 38.95B |
| Gross Profit | 12.11B | 11.70B | 11.38B | 9.10B | 8.56B | 8.67B |
| EBITDA | 3.80B | 3.22B | 3.21B | 3.40B | 3.27B | 3.44B |
| Net Income | 1.01B | 1.08B | 1.12B | 1.10B | 1.05B | 1.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.39B | 20.29B | 19.87B | 20.49B | 21.17B | 20.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 598.00M | 705.00M | 675.00M | 597.00M | 589.00M | 787.00M |
| Total Debt | 17.80B | 10.33B | 10.07B | 8.97B | 9.78B | 9.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.51B | 16.49B | 16.25B | 17.13B | 18.05B | 17.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.88B | 3.81B | 3.62B | 3.36B | 3.12B | 2.81B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.56B | 1.45B | 1.12B | 1.29B | 1.42B | 1.56B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.09B | 2.94B | 2.79B | 2.81B | 2.69B | 2.84B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.43B | -1.36B | -1.51B | -1.00B | -1.14B | -1.11B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.69B | -1.54B | -1.20B | -1.80B | -1.75B | -1.94B |
Coles Group Technical Analysis
Positive
22.54
Price Trends
22.54
Positive
22.16
Positive
21.91
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Positive
54.80
Neutral
50.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:COL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.63, below the 50-day MA of 22.54, and above the 200-day MA of 21.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:COL.
Coles Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | AU$6.21B | 16.36 | 9.59% | 5.12% | -1.17% | -18.45% | |
63 Neutral | AU$3.69B | -8.62 | -10.03% | 7.42% | -10.96% | -383.84% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | AU$31.64B | 31.06 | 26.38% | 3.24% | 1.26% | -8.33% | |
62 Neutral | AU$3.37B | 12.24 | 17.24% | 5.47% | 0.18% | -1.74% | |
54 Neutral | AU$48.85B | 81.96 | 12.60% | 2.86% | 1.54% | -63.29% | |
51 Neutral | AU$1.83B | 223.07 | 0.82% | 1.95% | 1.47% | -76.20% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:COL
Coles Group
23.56
3.77
19.07%
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Coles Group Corporate Events
Coles Confirms Due Diligence on Potential Greencross Pet Wellness Acquisition
Jul 1, 2026
Coles Group has confirmed it is in talks with private equity firm TPG about a potential acquisition of Greencross Pet Wellness Company and is currently conducting due diligence on the business. The retailer emphasised it will only proceed with a d...
ACCC blocks Coles’ planned Kalgoorlie supermarket and liquor expansion
Jul 1, 2026
Australia’s competition regulator has blocked Coles’ plan to acquire a leasehold interest for a new full-line supermarket and liquor store in Somerville, a suburb of Kalgoorlie-Boulder. The ACCC concluded after a Phase 2 review that th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.