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Treasury Wine Estates Limited (AU:TWE)
ASX:TWE

Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) AI Stock Analysis

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AU

Treasury Wine Estates Limited

(Sydney:TWE)

Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
Treasury Wine Estates Limited demonstrates robust financial performance with strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, but faces profitability challenges. The technical analysis suggests a bearish outlook, with the stock currently undervalued on a technical basis. Valuation indicates high market expectations with a high P/E ratio, offset by a decent dividend yield. The earnings call underscores strengths in the luxury segment but highlights challenges in other areas. Overall, while the company is well-positioned in the luxury market, there are areas for improvement to optimize its stock performance.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTreasury Wine Estates Limited operates as a wine company primarily in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. The company engages in the viticulture and winemaking; and marketing, sale, and distribution of wine. Its wine portfolio includes luxury, premium and commercial wine brands, such as 19 Crimes, Acacia Vineyard, Annie's Lane, Beaulieu Vineyard, Belcreme de Lys, Beringer Vineyards, Blossom Hill, Cavaliere d'Oro, Coldstream Hills, Devil's Lair, EMBRAZEN, Etude, Fifth Leg, Heemskerk, Hewitt Vineyard, Ingoldby, Jamieson's Run, Killawarra, Leo Buring, Lindeman's, Maison de Grand Esprit, Matua, Penfolds, Pepperjack, Rawson's Retreat, Rosemount Estate, Run Riot, Saltram, Samuel Wynn & Co, Secret Stone, Seppelt, Shingle Peak, Sledgehammer, Squealing pig, St Huberts, Stags' Leap Winery, Stellina di Notte, Sterling Vineyards, T'Gallant, The Walking Dead Wine, Wolf Blass, Wynns Coonawarra Estate, and Yellowglen. The company also provides contract bottling services to third parties; and sells grape and bulk wine. It owns and leases 8,362 planted hectares of vineyards in Australia and New Zealand; 2,702 planted hectares in California, including the Napa Valley, Sonoma County, Lake County, and Central Coast; 90 planted hectares in France's Bordeaux region; and 154 planted hectares in Tuscany, Italy. The company markets and sells its products to distributors, wholesalers, retails chains, independent retailers, and on-premise outlets, as well as directly to consumers. Treasury Wine Estates Limited was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyTreasury Wine Estates Limited makes money primarily through the sale of its wine products to distributors, retailers, and directly to consumers. The company's revenue model focuses on leveraging its premium and luxury wine brands to capture diverse market segments, ranging from mass-market consumers to high-end connoisseurs. TWE generates revenue by distributing its products through multiple channels, including retail, e-commerce, and direct-to-consumer sales. Key revenue streams include domestic sales within Australia, as well as significant international sales in regions like the Americas, Asia, and Europe. TWE's earnings are also supported by strategic partnerships and distribution agreements that expand its market reach. Additionally, the company invests in brand marketing and innovation to enhance its product offerings and maintain competitive advantage.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -25.85%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant growth in the luxury wine segment, particularly driven by Penfolds' success in China and DAOU's performance in the U.S. However, challenges remain in the premium and commercial segments, and the overall EBITS guidance was at the lower end of expectations. The sentiment is balanced with noticeable achievements in the luxury segment and ongoing challenges in other areas.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong EBITS Growth
EBITS grew 35.1% to $391.4 million, driven by the continued growth of Penfolds and the contribution of DAOU in Treasury Americas.
Luxury Portfolio Expansion
Luxury portfolio net sales revenue increased 52% and now represents approximately 56% of total group NSR.
Penfolds Success in China
Successfully reestablished the Australian country of origin portfolio in China, with strong consumer demand and positive sentiment.
Upgraded Cost Synergies for DAOU
Cost synergies of DAOU acquisition upgraded to a total run rate of $35 million, strengthening the business case for the acquisition.
Dividend Increase
Declared an interim dividend of $0.20 per share, 70% franked, representing a payout ratio of 68% and an increase on the prior year of 17.6%.
Negative Updates
Premium and Commercial Portfolio Decline
Premium and commercial portfolio declined approximately 5%, reflecting continued softness in demand for wine at lower price points.
Treasury Premium Brands Struggles
Treasury Premium Brands saw NSR decline 8%, driven by lower commercial and premium shipments.
Lower End of EBITS Guidance
F '25 EBITS expected to be approximately $780 million, at the lower end of the previous guidance range of $780 million to $810 million.
Company Guidance
In the first half of fiscal year 2025, Treasury Wine Estates reported a strong performance driven by its luxury-led focus. Key financial metrics showed significant growth, with EBITS increasing by 35.1% to $391.4 million, and net sales revenue (NSR) for its luxury portfolio rising by 52%. This luxury segment now constitutes approximately 56% of the total group NSR. The company also highlighted an 11% growth in DAOU's NSR within Treasury Americas and announced an upgrade in cost synergies from the acquisition to a total run rate of $35 million, up from the previous guidance of $20 million-plus. Despite a 5% decline in the premium and commercial portfolio, overall group NSR increased by 20.2% on a reported basis. Penfolds' performance was particularly strong, driven by growth in Asia and its reestablishment in China, contributing to a 10.5% increase in NSR per case. The company declared a $0.20 per share interim dividend, reflecting a payout ratio of 68% and a 17.6% increase on the prior year. Cash conversion was reported at 90.4%, and leverage improved to 2x, within the target range of 1.5 to 2x. The outlook for fiscal year 2025 anticipates EBITS of approximately $780 million, with ongoing strategic initiatives to support long-term growth.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.81B2.49B2.53B2.68B2.68B
Gross Profit
1.23B1.07B1.03B1.16B1.09B
EBIT
625.70M581.80M514.10M622.30M481.20M
EBITDA
528.90M636.70M644.40M615.30M652.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
98.90M254.50M263.20M250.00M260.80M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
458.10M565.80M430.50M448.10M449.10M
Total Assets
8.11B7.09B6.66B6.28B6.64B
Total Debt
2.16B1.94B1.74B1.53B1.93B
Net Debt
1.70B1.37B1.31B1.08B1.48B
Total Liabilities
3.50B3.21B2.87B2.69B3.05B
Stockholders Equity
4.59B3.86B3.78B3.59B3.59B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
241.60M23.00M449.80M350.50M222.30M
Operating Cash Flow
431.70M272.00M562.00M471.70M366.90M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.32B-111.40M-408.60M-59.40M-66.70M
Financing Cash Flow
783.00M-27.20M-184.80M-403.60M-252.40M

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price8.11
Price Trends
50DMA
8.74
Negative
100DMA
9.56
Negative
200DMA
10.39
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.20
Positive
RSI
37.70
Neutral
STOCH
57.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TWE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.44, below the 50-day MA of 8.74, and below the 200-day MA of 10.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:TWE.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$8.88B15.014.76%203.76%3.54%-2.49%
AUTWE
63
Neutral
$6.58B42.983.25%5.25%22.94%-40.23%
$416.40M22.457.05%
$3.81B36.0613.75%0.97%
$1.11B23.694.61%3.26%
DEB6G
€978.38M46.133.35%1.93%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
8.11
-3.45
-29.81%
SHVTF
Select Harvests
3.35
1.11
49.55%
ACOPF
a2 Milk Company Ltd.
5.25
0.63
13.64%
GRCLF
Graincorp Limited Class A
4.84
-1.28
-20.92%
DE:B6G
Bega Cheese Limited
3.16
0.61
23.92%

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Corporate Events

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Change in Substantial Holder Interests
Jun 5, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced a significant change in the interests of a substantial holder, specifically State Street Bank and Trust Company and its subsidiaries. This change reflects a shift in voting power and control over a substantial number of ordinary shares, which may impact the company’s governance and influence in its strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase Ceases Substantial Holding in Treasury Wine Estates
Jun 4, 2025

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders in Treasury Wine Estates Limited, as detailed in a recent notice. This change in substantial holding involves various transactions, including securities lending and proprietary trading, and may affect the company’s shareholder structure and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Substantial Shareholder Acquires Stake in Treasury Wine Estates
Jun 3, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced that a substantial holder has acquired a 5.0441% voting power in the company as of May 30, 2025. This development could potentially impact the company’s shareholder dynamics and influence its strategic decisions, reflecting a notable shift in its ownership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Adjusts Distribution Strategy Amid California Changes
Jun 2, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates announced that Republic National Distributing Company will cease its operations in California by September 2025. TWE is actively seeking alternative distribution arrangements to maintain its market presence in California, and despite the change, the company expects its F25 EBITS to be approximately $770 million, slightly lower than previously forecasted due to weaker consumer demand in the US.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Ceases Substantial Holding in Treasury Wine Estates
Jun 1, 2025

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders of Treasury Wine Estates Limited as of May 28, 2025. This change in holdings may impact the company’s market dynamics and influence investor perceptions, as JPMorgan’s involvement in the company’s securities has shifted, potentially affecting stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase Acquires Substantial Stake in Treasury Wine Estates
May 28, 2025

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have become substantial holders in Treasury Wine Estates Limited, acquiring a 5.05% voting power in the company. This development indicates a significant investment interest from a major financial institution, potentially impacting Treasury Wine Estates’ market dynamics and signaling confidence in the company’s future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Appoints Sam Fischer as New CEO
May 15, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the appointment of Sam Fischer as the new CEO and Managing Director, effective October 27, 2025, succeeding Tim Ford. Fischer, with over 30 years of experience in the alcohol beverages and luxury brands sectors, is expected to lead TWE into its next phase of growth and performance, building on the strong foundations laid by Ford, who has significantly transformed the company during his tenure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Updates Substantial Holder Interests
Apr 27, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced a change in the interests of a substantial holder, with State Street Global Advisors and its subsidiaries adjusting their voting power in the company. This update reflects the dynamic nature of shareholder interests and may impact the company’s governance and decision-making processes, potentially influencing its strategic direction and stakeholder relations.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Apr 11, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the cessation of 60,751 performance rights due to unmet conditions, effective January 1, 2025. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting the company’s ongoing adjustments to its securities management.

Treasury Wine Estates Issues Deferred Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Apr 11, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the issuance of 63,063 deferred share rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is part of the company’s strategy to align employee interests with corporate goals, potentially enhancing workforce motivation and retention, and strengthening its market position.

Treasury Wine Estates Issues New Performance Rights
Apr 11, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the issuance of 4,538 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until these restrictions are lifted, potentially impacting employee retention and motivation strategies.

Treasury Wine Estates Minimizes Impact of US Tariffs on Operations
Apr 2, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates has announced that the newly imposed 10% tariff by the United States on goods imported from Australia and New Zealand is expected to have minimal impact on its operations. This is due to the composition of its Treasury Americas portfolio, where the majority of its earnings are derived from US-produced wines, minimizing the effect of the tariffs on its business performance.

Treasury Wine Estates Appoints Nigel Garrard as Non-Executive Director
Apr 1, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the appointment of Nigel Garrard as an independent, Non-Executive Director to its Board, effective from May 1, 2025. Mr. Garrard brings over 20 years of experience in the food and beverage, and packaging sectors, having held senior roles in companies like Orora Limited and Coca-Cola Amatil. His extensive expertise is expected to enhance the competencies of TWE’s Board, potentially strengthening its strategic direction and industry positioning.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.