Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$4.12B
• Dividend Yield: 7.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.00M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.17
• Revenue Growth: 6.47%
• EPS Growth: 281.30%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 2,600
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 807,437,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,951,885
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,001,221
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.16
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$5.11
• Price Target Upside: -6.97% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$5.50 ▲(0.18% Upside)

Treasury Wine Estates Limited's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, including growth in key brands and sustainability achievements. However, bearish technical indicators and challenges in organic revenue growth and distribution impact the score.

Positive Factors

Premium Brand Strength (Penfolds)

Penfolds' reestablished presence and high NSR per case reflect durable premium pricing power and strong brand equity. Sustained premium performance supports margin resilience, drives higher-average revenue per case, and underpins long-term profitability across markets.

Cash Generation and Deleveraging

Material cash flow growth and a lower leverage ratio strengthen financial flexibility. Improved free cash flow enables reinvestment, M&A integration, and shareholder returns while reducing refinancing and liquidity risk, supporting durable balance-sheet health.

Sustainability and Governance Progress

High sustainability certification and renewable energy adoption reduce regulatory, supply and reputational risks. These structural ESG advances enhance brand credibility with consumers and retailers, lower long-term operating risk, and support market access.

Negative Factors

Underlying Organic Revenue Weakness

A decline in organic NSR signals weaker underlying demand or distribution execution, implying reliance on acquisitions or FX for growth. Persistent organic weakness can pressure long-term top-line momentum, margin sustainability, and the return on marketing investments.

Distribution Concentration Risk (California)

A significant revenue hit from a single distributor closure highlights channel concentration and execution vulnerability. Rebuilding or replacing distribution ties is time-consuming and costly, creating durable risk to Americas growth and predictable revenue flows.

Channel Pricing Discipline in China

Parallel imports depressing e-commerce prices undermine brand positioning and pricing power in a key market. Without structural channel control or enforcement, this can cause sustained margin erosion, brand dilution, and weaker long-term profitability in China.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Treasury Wine Estates Limited operates as a wine company primarily in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. The company engages in the viticulture and winemaking; and marketing, sale, and distribution of wine. Its wine portfolio includes luxury, premium and commercial wine brands, such as 19 Crimes, Acacia Vineyard, Annie's Lane, Beaulieu Vineyard, Belcreme de Lys, Beringer Vineyards, Blossom Hill, Cavaliere d'Oro, Coldstream Hills, Devil's Lair, EMBRAZEN, Etude, Fifth Leg, Heemskerk, Hewitt Vineyard, Ingoldby, Jamieson's Run, Killawarra, Leo Buring, Lindeman's, Maison de Grand Esprit, Matua, Penfolds, Pepperjack, Rawson's Retreat, Rosemount Estate, Run Riot, Saltram, Samuel Wynn & Co, Secret Stone, Seppelt, Shingle Peak, Sledgehammer, Squealing pig, St Huberts, Stags' Leap Winery, Stellina di Notte, Sterling Vineyards, T'Gallant, The Walking Dead Wine, Wolf Blass, Wynns Coonawarra Estate, and Yellowglen. The company also provides contract bottling services to third parties; and sells grape and bulk wine. It owns and leases 8,362 planted hectares of vineyards in Australia and New Zealand; 2,702 planted hectares in California, including the Napa Valley, Sonoma County, Lake County, and Central Coast; 90 planted hectares in France's Bordeaux region; and 154 planted hectares in Tuscany, Italy. The company markets and sells its products to distributors, wholesalers, retails chains, independent retailers, and on-premise outlets, as well as directly to consumers. Treasury Wine Estates Limited was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Treasury Wine Estates generates revenue primarily through the sale of its wines in various markets globally. The company's revenue model is driven by multiple streams, including direct-to-consumer sales, retail distribution, and partnerships with wholesalers and distributors. Key revenue streams include sales from its premium wine brands, which command higher price points, as well as volume sales from its more affordable offerings. TWE also benefits from strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors, enhancing its market reach. Additionally, the company has invested in e-commerce and digital marketing initiatives to capture the growing online wine market. Seasonal trends, global wine consumption patterns, and successful marketing campaigns also play significant roles in driving TWE's earnings.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Treasury Wine Estates Limited shows a stable financial position with strengths in profitability and cash flow management. Despite challenges in revenue growth, the company maintains healthy margins and improved cash flow generation. The balance sheet is solid, though rising debt levels require attention.

Income Statement

Treasury Wine Estates Limited shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company experienced a revenue decline of 4.15% in the most recent year, indicating potential challenges in sales growth. However, the gross profit margin remains healthy, suggesting effective cost management. The net profit margin has improved significantly from the previous year, reflecting enhanced profitability. Despite a decrease in EBIT, the company maintains a solid EBITDA margin, which is a positive indicator of operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Treasury Wine Estates Limited is relatively strong, with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid capital structure. Return on equity has improved, showcasing better utilization of shareholder funds. However, the increase in total debt over the years suggests a need for careful monitoring of leverage levels to avoid potential financial strain.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals positive trends, with a notable growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio has also improved, highlighting effective cash management. These factors contribute to a robust cash flow position, supporting the company's financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.99B	2.94B	2.81B	2.49B	2.53B	2.68B
Gross Profit	1.42B	1.37B	1.23B	1.07B	1.03B	1.16B
EBITDA	966.90M	1.03B	528.90M	636.70M	644.40M	615.30M
Net Income	436.90M	436.90M	98.90M	254.50M	263.20M	250.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.31B	8.31B	8.11B	7.09B	6.66B	6.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	427.70M	427.70M	458.10M	565.80M	430.50M	448.10M
Total Debt	2.20B	2.20B	2.16B	1.94B	1.74B	1.53B
Total Liabilities	3.51B	3.51B	3.50B	3.21B	2.87B	2.69B
Stockholders Equity	4.78B	4.78B	4.59B	3.86B	3.78B	3.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	396.60M	388.60M	241.60M	23.00M	449.80M	350.50M
Operating Cash Flow	525.70M	525.70M	431.70M	272.00M	562.00M	471.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-149.00M	-149.00M	-1.32B	-111.40M	-408.60M	-59.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-408.50M	-408.50M	783.00M	-27.20M	-184.80M	-403.60M

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 5.49
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TWE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.19, below the 50-day MA of 5.51, and below the 200-day MA of 7.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:TWE.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TWE	70 Outperform	AU$4.12B	9.47	9.13%	7.42%	6.47%	281.30%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
EDV	60 Neutral	AU$6.86B	16.06	11.20%	5.12%	-2.04%	-16.79%
ZNO	46 Neutral	AU$30.47M	-7.13	-77.92%	―	17.41%	67.94%
AVG	44 Neutral	AU$34.59M	-3.52	-4.54%	―	-1.31%	92.08%
LRK	43 Neutral	AU$60.97M	-5.03	-10.39%	―	2.62%	-85.79%

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Corporate Events

Treasury Wine Estates Cancels 3,487 Lapsed Deferred Share Rights

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the cessation of 3,487 deferred share rights (security code TWEAB) after the conditional rights lapsed because their performance or vesting conditions were not satisfied or became incapable of being satisfied as of 4 November 2025. The cancellation of these equity-linked instruments marginally reduces the company’s potential future share issuance under its incentive arrangements, signaling a minor adjustment to its capital structure and executive or employee equity plans, but with no indication of material operational or strategic impact on the broader business.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Hold with a A$4.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Reports Lapse of 2,708 Performance Rights

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has notified the market that 2,708 performance rights, trading under the ASX code TWEAA, have lapsed after the conditions attached to those rights were not satisfied or became incapable of being satisfied as of 4 November 2025. The cessation of these securities slightly reduces the pool of potential equity issuance under the company’s performance rights arrangements, signalling that certain performance or service hurdles linked to executive or employee incentives were not met, but does not otherwise alter the company’s existing issued share capital structure in a material way.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Hold with a A$4.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Issues Small Tranche of Shares from Option Conversions

Treasury Wine Estates has notified the market of the issue of 1,361 ordinary fully paid shares arising from the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted equity securities. The small-scale issuance, recorded under an ASX Appendix 3G filing, reflects routine capital management activity and a minor increase in the company’s listed share capital, with limited immediate impact expected on existing shareholders or the broader market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Hold with a A$4.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Completes Strategic Share Buy-Back

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the completion of an on-market buy-back of its ordinary fully paid securities, totaling 3,989,185 shares at a consideration of AUD 30,461,681.72. This buy-back reflects the company’s strategic financial management efforts, potentially enhancing shareholder value and optimizing its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Sell with a A$5.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Releases Investor Update and 1H26 Outlook

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has released presentation materials for an investor and analyst webcast and conference call, scheduled for December 17, 2025. This update, authorized by the Board, aims to provide insights into the company’s performance and outlook for the first half of 2026, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Sell with a A$5.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Responds to Market Challenges with Strategic Initiatives

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced strategic actions in response to weakened market dynamics in the US and China, which have led to above-optimal inventory levels and disrupted pricing for its Penfolds brand. The company plans to reduce inventory holdings and restrict shipments contributing to parallel imports in China. Additionally, the company is launching a transformation program, TWE Ascent, targeting significant cost improvements to ensure long-term growth. Despite current challenges, TWE remains confident in its ability to achieve sustainable, profitable growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Sell with a A$5.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Initiates Trading Halt Ahead of Major Announcement

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has requested a trading halt on its securities pending an important announcement. This halt will remain until either the announcement is made or normal trading resumes on December 17, 2025. The company plans to hold an investor and analyst call to discuss its outlook, indicating potential significant developments that could impact its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Sell with a A$5.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates to Host Investor Call with Market Updates

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced an investor and analyst conference call scheduled for 17 December 2025, which will provide updates on its performance in major markets, including China and the US. This call will also feature initial insights from the new CEO, Sam Fischer, potentially impacting the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Sell with a A$5.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Completes Share Release from DAOU Acquisition

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the release of 6,575,020 shares from voluntary escrow, which were issued as part of the acquisition of DAOU Vineyards, LLC. This marks the completion of the share release process under the acquisition terms, potentially impacting the company’s stock liquidity and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Sell with a A$5.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Cessation of Deferred Share Rights

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the cessation of 1,650 deferred share rights due to the lapse of conditional rights that were not satisfied. This announcement may affect the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, particularly in terms of equity distribution and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Hold with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Issues New Equity Securities

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the issuance and conversion of unquoted equity securities, specifically 2,641 ordinary fully paid securities. This move reflects the company’s ongoing financial maneuvers to manage its equity structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Hold with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Issues Deferred Share Rights for Employee Incentive

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the issuance of 600,875 deferred share rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and are not intended to be listed on the ASX, reflecting the company’s strategy to incentivize and retain talent, which could enhance its operational efficiency and market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Hold with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Grants Incentives to CEO Sam Fischer

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced a change in the securities interests of its CEO and Managing Director, Sam Fischer. The company granted Fischer 524,802 Deferred Share Rights as a sign-on award and 361,323 Performance Rights under its F26 Long Term Incentive Plan. These grants, approved by shareholders at the 2025 Annual General Meeting, aim to compensate Fischer for incentives lost from his previous employer and align his interests with the company’s long-term goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Hold with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Appoints New CEO

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the appointment of Sam Fischer as the new Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, effective from October 27, 2025. This leadership change is expected to influence the company’s strategic direction and potentially impact its market positioning, providing stakeholders with a renewed focus on growth and development.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Hold with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Director Increases Stake with Share Acquisition

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced a change in the relevant interests of its Non-Executive Director, Nigel Garrard, who acquired 32,500 ordinary shares through on-market trades. This acquisition reflects a significant increase in Mr. Garrard’s stake in the company, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future prospects and impacting stakeholder perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Sell with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Chairman Increases Stake

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced a change in the interest of its Non-Executive Director and Chairman, John Mullen, who acquired 76,000 ordinary shares through an on-market trade. This acquisition reflects a significant investment by a key company figure, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance and impacting stakeholder perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Sell with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Board Change with Shanahan’s Retirement

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the retirement of Lauri Shanahan from its Board of Directors, effective 16 October 2025. This change in the board’s composition may impact the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially influencing its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Sell with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.