Treasury Wine Estates Limited (AU:TWE)
ASX:TWE
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Treasury Wine Estates Limited
(Sydney:TWE)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
AU$3.50
▲(3.86% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score reflects solid underlying financial stability (especially cash flow and a reasonably strong balance sheet) but is held back by very weak technical momentum and a downtrending price. The latest earnings call adds risk due to the large impairment, dividend suspension, and margin/cash pressures, partly offset by EBITS guidance, liquidity, and planned cost savings.
Positive Factors
Premium brand strength (Penfolds)
Sustained demand for Penfolds and strong depletions in key markets signal durable premium-brand pricing power. Management expects ~40% EBITS margin from Penfolds and ~ $400m FY26 EBITS, supporting long-term margin resilience, high-margin cash generation and portfolio differentiation versus commercial wines.
Negative Factors
Large noncash U.S. impairment
A substantial impairment that wrote U.S. goodwill to zero materially reduced equity and signals structural demand or valuation issues in the U.S. portfolio. This weakens the balance sheet, reduces headroom for future write-offs, and can constrain capital allocation, dividend resumption and investor confidence over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Premium brand strength (Penfolds)
Sustained demand for Penfolds and strong depletions in key markets signal durable premium-brand pricing power. Management expects ~40% EBITS margin from Penfolds and ~ $400m FY26 EBITS, supporting long-term margin resilience, high-margin cash generation and portfolio differentiation versus commercial wines.
Read all positive factors
Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$2.92B
Dividend Yield7.42%
Average Volume (3M)6.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth6.47%
EPS Growth281.30%
CountryAU
Employees2,600
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding807,437,260
10 Day Avg. Volume8,951,885
30 Day Avg. Volume6,001,221
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.32
Price to Sales (P/S)2.16
P/FCF Ratio16.31
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$4.89Price Target Upside44.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$2.49B
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Treasury Wine Estates Limited operates as a wine company primarily in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. The company engages in the viticulture and winemaking; and marketing, sale, and distribution of ...
How the Company Makes Money
TWE makes money primarily by selling branded bottled wine to customers through multiple routes-to-market. Its revenue model is centered on (1) brand-led sales of wine at varying price segments (from commercial to premium and luxury tiers), where e...
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 15, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mixed picture: underlying brand momentum (notably Penfolds and select U.S. premium brands), EBITS slightly ahead of guidance, healthy liquidity and clear cost-saving targets are positive. However, the company recorded a very large noncash U.S. impairment (post-tax $751m) leading to a statutory NPAT loss of $626m, experienced margin compression (NSR per case -5%; EBITS margin down 7ppt), weakened operating cash flow (down 38.1%) and reclassified significant inventory into noncurrent. Management is taking decisive actions (shipment restrictions, inventory reduction, RNDC settlement, dividend suspension, and the TWE Ascent program) to repair the balance sheet and restore growth, but the sizable impairment and short-term cash and margin pressures outweigh the operational positives on this call.Positive Updates
EBITS Ahead of Guidance
Reported EBITS of $236 million in H1 FY26, slightly ahead of guidance provided in December; management expects H2 EBITS to be higher than H1.
Negative Updates
Large Noncash U.S. Impairment and Material Items Loss
Post-tax material items loss of $751 million recognized in H1, primarily due to a noncash impairment of U.S.-based assets (including write-down of U.S. goodwill to zero, selected brands such as Sterling and Beringer, and inventory write-downs). This drove statutory NPAT loss of $626 million for H1 FY26.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
EBITS Ahead of Guidance
Reported EBITS of $236 million in H1 FY26, slightly ahead of guidance provided in December; management expects H2 EBITS to be higher than H1.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that H1 EBITS was $236m and H2 EBITS is expected to be higher, while statutory NPAT was a loss of $626m (post‑tax material items loss $751m) and pre‑material NPAT was $128m (EPS $0.158); the F'26 interim dividend has been suspended. Key division guidance: Penfolds H1 EBITS $201m with FY26 EBITS expected ≈$400m and ~40% margin; Treasury Americas H1 EBITS $44m with FY26 ≈$90m (excluding RNDC settlement); Treasury Collective H1 EBITS $28.1m with H2 expected to be stronger. Financial and operational metrics called out included NSR per case down 5%, EBITS margin down 7pp to 18.2%, ROCE 9.5% (down 1.7pp), depletions: Penfolds Bin 389/407 +11% and China +17% (Aug–Dec), total inventory volume -2% but value +2% (+$16m), current inventory -$231.9m, non‑current inventory +$278.4m, net assets down $930.9m (FX -$226.6m; U.S. impairment ~ $771m), net operating cash flow pre interest/tax/material items $264.6m (‑38.1%) with cash conversion 82.4%, H1 CapEx $76.8m (maintenance $56.3m; growth $20.5m) and FY CapEx ~ $125m, leverage 2.4x (in line with December guidance) with ~$1bn of cash and committed undrawn facilities and no meaningful maturities until June 2027. Finally, TWE Ascent targets ~$100m p.a. of cost savings from FY27 (over 2–3 years) and management emphasized a near‑term focus on depletions‑led execution, cash and cost preservation.Treasury Wine Estates Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.73B | 2.94B | 2.81B | 2.49B | 2.53B | 2.68B |
| Gross Profit | 1.25B | 1.37B | 1.23B | 1.07B | 1.03B | 1.16B |
| EBITDA | 857.50M | 1.03B | 528.90M | 636.70M | 644.40M | 615.30M |
| Net Income | -433.40M | 436.90M | 98.90M | 254.50M | 263.20M | 250.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.87B | 8.31B | 8.11B | 7.09B | 6.66B | 6.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 216.10M | 427.70M | 458.10M | 565.80M | 430.50M | 448.10M |
| Total Debt | 2.49B | 2.20B | 2.16B | 1.94B | 1.74B | 1.53B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.00B | 3.51B | 3.50B | 3.21B | 2.87B | 2.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.85B | 4.78B | 4.59B | 3.86B | 3.78B | 3.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 249.30M | 388.60M | 241.60M | 23.00M | 449.80M | 350.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 382.30M | 525.70M | 431.70M | 272.00M | 562.00M | 471.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -131.20M | -149.00M | -1.32B | -111.40M | -408.60M | -59.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -497.70M | -408.50M | 783.00M | -27.20M | -184.80M | -403.60M |
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
3.37
Price Trends
4.66
Negative
5.09
Negative
6.23
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.33
Positive
32.19
Neutral
19.23
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TWE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.94, below the 50-day MA of 4.66, and below the 200-day MA of 6.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:TWE.
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | AU$6.07B | 6.65 | 9.59% | 5.12% | -2.04% | -16.79% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | AU$2.92B | -1.63 | -10.03% | 7.42% | 6.47% | 281.30% | |
54 Neutral | AU$85.91M | -18.17 | -8.39% | ― | 2.62% | -85.79% | |
45 Neutral | AU$27.67M | -0.41 | -16.84% | ― | -1.31% | 92.08% | |
44 Neutral | AU$19.90M | -7.05 | -108.90% | ― | 17.41% | 67.94% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
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-6.06
-62.59%
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Treasury Wine Estates Limited Corporate Events
UBS Group AG Ceases to Be Substantial Shareholder in Treasury Wine Estates
Mar 26, 2026
UBS Group AG and its related bodies corporate have lodged notice that they have ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Treasury Wine Estates Limited as of 24 March 2026. The change indicates that UBS’s holding has fallen below the substan...
Citi Group Entities Exit Substantial Holder Position in Treasury Wine Estates
Mar 26, 2026
Citigroup Global Markets Australia and related Citi entities have notified Treasury Wine Estates that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 24 March 2026. The change reflects a series of adjustments in relevant interests...
Major Shareholder Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Treasury Wine Estates
Mar 24, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has disclosed that a previously identified substantial holder has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 24 March 2026. The change, formally notified to the market via a standard substantial holding notic...
Treasury Wine Estates Announces Planned Retirement of Chief Financial and Strategy Officer
Mar 3, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has announced that Chief Financial and Strategy Officer Stuart Boxer will retire effective 30 September 2026, prompting the launch of a comprehensive internal and external search for his successor. Boxer, who joined the group...
Treasury Wine Estates settles RNDC California dispute and nudges earnings guidance higher
Feb 9, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates’ U.S. arm has settled a dispute with distributor Republic National Distributing Company following RNDC’s exit from the California market in September 2025. Under the agreement, TWE will repurchase RNDC’s Cal...
JPMorgan Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Treasury Wine Estates
Feb 9, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and its affiliates have notified Treasury Wine Estates Limited that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 5 February 2026. The change reflects reductions and reclassifications of their holdings and se...
Macquarie Group Exits Substantial Holder Position in Treasury Wine Estates
Feb 9, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Treasury Wine Estates, signaling a reduction in their voting interest below the regulatory disclosure threshold. The chang...
JPMorgan Exits Substantial Shareholder Position in Treasury Wine Estates
Feb 3, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and its affiliates have notified Treasury Wine Estates that they have ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 30 January 2026. The change reflects a reduction in JPMorgan’s relevant interest through a ...
JPMorgan Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Treasury Wine Estates
Jan 26, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and its affiliates have notified Treasury Wine Estates that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 21 January 2026. The change reflects a series of transactions and securities lending, investment manag...
Treasury Wine Estates Cancels 3,487 Lapsed Deferred Share Rights
Jan 13, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the cessation of 3,487 deferred share rights (security code TWEAB) after the conditional rights lapsed because their performance or vesting conditions were not satisfied or became incapable of being sati...
Treasury Wine Estates Reports Lapse of 2,708 Performance Rights
Jan 13, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates Limited has notified the market that 2,708 performance rights, trading under the ASX code TWEAA, have lapsed after the conditions attached to those rights were not satisfied or became incapable of being satisfied as of 4 Nove...
Treasury Wine Estates Issues Small Tranche of Shares from Option Conversions
Jan 13, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has notified the market of the issue of 1,361 ordinary fully paid shares arising from the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted equity securities. The small-scale issuance, recorded under an ASX Appendix 3G filing, re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.