tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Treasury Wine Estates Limited (AU:TWE)
ASX:TWE

Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
218 Followers

Top Page

AU:TWE

Treasury Wine Estates Limited

(Sydney:TWE)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
AU$6.50
▲(31.31% Upside)
Treasury Wine Estates Limited's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, including growth in key brands and sustainability achievements. However, bearish technical indicators and challenges in organic revenue growth and distribution impact the score.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTreasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) is a leading global wine company headquartered in Australia, known for a diverse portfolio of premium wine brands. The company operates across various sectors, including the production, marketing, and distribution of wine. TWE's core products encompass a wide range of wines, from iconic brands such as Penfolds and Wolf Blass to more regional offerings. With a strong presence in both established and emerging markets, TWE focuses on delivering high-quality wines to consumers around the world.
How the Company Makes MoneyTreasury Wine Estates generates revenue primarily through the sale of its wines in various markets globally. The company's revenue model is driven by multiple streams, including direct-to-consumer sales, retail distribution, and partnerships with wholesalers and distributors. Key revenue streams include sales from its premium wine brands, which command higher price points, as well as volume sales from its more affordable offerings. TWE also benefits from strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors, enhancing its market reach. Additionally, the company has invested in e-commerce and digital marketing initiatives to capture the growing online wine market. Seasonal trends, global wine consumption patterns, and successful marketing campaigns also play significant roles in driving TWE's earnings.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a positive financial performance with strong growth in key brands like Penfolds and successful integration of DAOU, complemented by significant sustainability achievements. However, challenges in organic revenue growth, distribution disruptions in California, and pricing issues in China present notable concerns.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Net sales revenue grew 7.2% to $2.9 billion, and EBITS grew 17% to $770.3 million. Operating cash flow increased by 22.9%, and leverage reduced to 1.9x.
Penfolds Growth
EBIT grew 13.2% driven by strong growth in Asia, particularly in China, with Penfolds reestablishing its presence in the market.
Sustainability Achievements
Achieved 100% renewable electricity across global operations and increased female representation in senior leadership to 48.8%.
DAOU Integration Success
DAOU delivered an 8.2% NSR growth and realized approximately USD 12 million of synergies, exceeding initial expectations.
Negative Updates
Organic NSR Decline
On an organic basis, net sales revenue declined 1%, reflecting reduced sales in the commercial and premium portfolio.
California Distribution Challenges
The unexpected closure of RNDC in California led to a projected $50 million impact on NSR for Treasury Americas.
E-Commerce Pricing Issues in China
Parallel imports in China have led to below-market pricing in e-commerce channels, impacting revenue management.
Underperformance of Certain U.S. Brands
Stags' Leap and Beaulieu Vineyards underperformed, with NSR down 10% due to pricing strategies.
Company Guidance
During the Treasury Wine Estates FY '25 Full Year Results Call, the company reported a 7.2% increase in net sales revenue to $2.9 billion and a 17% growth in EBITS to $770.3 million. Operating cash flow surged by 22.9%, reducing leverage to 1.9x. The company announced an on-market share buyback of up to $200 million. Penfolds showed strong growth, with NSR per case increasing by 10% and an EBIT margin of 44.4%. Treasury Americas saw a 33.9% EBITS increase, driven by DAOU's 8.2% NSR growth. The Treasury Premium Brands division faced a 7% NSR decline. Sustainability efforts achieved 100% renewable electricity and 98.4% sustainability certification for eligible vineyards and wineries. For FY '26, the company anticipates continued EBITS growth, led by Penfolds, despite a $50 million NSR impact from transitioning California distribution.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Treasury Wine Estates Limited shows a stable financial position with strengths in profitability and cash flow management. Despite challenges in revenue growth, the company maintains healthy margins and improved cash flow generation. The balance sheet is solid, though rising debt levels require attention.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Treasury Wine Estates Limited shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company experienced a revenue decline of 4.15% in the most recent year, indicating potential challenges in sales growth. However, the gross profit margin remains healthy, suggesting effective cost management. The net profit margin has improved significantly from the previous year, reflecting enhanced profitability. Despite a decrease in EBIT, the company maintains a solid EBITDA margin, which is a positive indicator of operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet of Treasury Wine Estates Limited is relatively strong, with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid capital structure. Return on equity has improved, showcasing better utilization of shareholder funds. However, the increase in total debt over the years suggests a need for careful monitoring of leverage levels to avoid potential financial strain.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The cash flow statement reveals positive trends, with a notable growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio has also improved, highlighting effective cash management. These factors contribute to a robust cash flow position, supporting the company's financial flexibility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.99B2.94B2.81B2.49B2.53B2.68B
Gross Profit1.42B1.37B1.23B1.07B1.03B1.16B
EBITDA966.90M1.03B528.90M636.70M644.40M615.30M
Net Income436.90M436.90M98.90M254.50M263.20M250.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.31B8.31B8.11B7.09B6.66B6.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments427.70M427.70M458.10M565.80M430.50M448.10M
Total Debt2.20B2.20B2.16B1.94B1.74B1.53B
Total Liabilities3.51B3.51B3.50B3.21B2.87B2.69B
Stockholders Equity4.78B4.78B4.59B3.86B3.78B3.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow396.60M388.60M241.60M23.00M449.80M350.50M
Operating Cash Flow525.70M525.70M431.70M272.00M562.00M471.70M
Investing Cash Flow-149.00M-149.00M-1.32B-111.40M-408.60M-59.40M
Financing Cash Flow-408.50M-408.50M783.00M-27.20M-184.80M-403.60M

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.95
Price Trends
50DMA
5.76
Negative
100DMA
6.58
Negative
200DMA
7.45
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.24
Positive
RSI
26.33
Positive
STOCH
34.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TWE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.48, below the 50-day MA of 5.76, and below the 200-day MA of 7.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.33 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:TWE.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
AU$4.00B9.319.13%7.98%6.47%281.30%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
60
Neutral
AU$6.55B15.4311.20%5.12%-2.04%-16.79%
44
Neutral
AU$34.59M-3.79-4.54%-1.31%92.08%
43
Neutral
AU$64.72M-5.52-10.39%2.62%-85.79%
42
Neutral
40
Underperform
AU$32.50M-7.82-77.92%17.41%67.94%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
5.01
-6.02
-54.59%
AU:AVG
Australian Vintage Ltd
0.11
-0.04
-25.00%
AU:ZNO
Zoono Group Limited
0.08
0.06
300.00%
AU:TSI
Top Shelf International Holdings Ltd.
0.04
0.00
0.00%
AU:LRK
Lark Distilling Co. Ltd.
0.62
-0.51
-45.13%
AU:EDV
Endeavour Group Ltd
3.67
-0.37
-9.16%

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Corporate Events

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Cessation of Deferred Share Rights
Nov 10, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the cessation of 1,650 deferred share rights due to the lapse of conditional rights that were not satisfied. This announcement may affect the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, particularly in terms of equity distribution and investor relations.

Treasury Wine Estates Issues New Equity Securities
Nov 10, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the issuance and conversion of unquoted equity securities, specifically 2,641 ordinary fully paid securities. This move reflects the company’s ongoing financial maneuvers to manage its equity structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Treasury Wine Estates Issues Deferred Share Rights for Employee Incentive
Nov 10, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the issuance of 600,875 deferred share rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and are not intended to be listed on the ASX, reflecting the company’s strategy to incentivize and retain talent, which could enhance its operational efficiency and market competitiveness.

Treasury Wine Estates Grants Incentives to CEO Sam Fischer
Nov 10, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced a change in the securities interests of its CEO and Managing Director, Sam Fischer. The company granted Fischer 524,802 Deferred Share Rights as a sign-on award and 361,323 Performance Rights under its F26 Long Term Incentive Plan. These grants, approved by shareholders at the 2025 Annual General Meeting, aim to compensate Fischer for incentives lost from his previous employer and align his interests with the company’s long-term goals.

Treasury Wine Estates Appoints New CEO
Oct 30, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the appointment of Sam Fischer as the new Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, effective from October 27, 2025. This leadership change is expected to influence the company’s strategic direction and potentially impact its market positioning, providing stakeholders with a renewed focus on growth and development.

Treasury Wine Estates Director Increases Stake with Share Acquisition
Oct 24, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced a change in the relevant interests of its Non-Executive Director, Nigel Garrard, who acquired 32,500 ordinary shares through on-market trades. This acquisition reflects a significant increase in Mr. Garrard’s stake in the company, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future prospects and impacting stakeholder perceptions.

Treasury Wine Estates Chairman Increases Stake
Oct 22, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced a change in the interest of its Non-Executive Director and Chairman, John Mullen, who acquired 76,000 ordinary shares through an on-market trade. This acquisition reflects a significant investment by a key company figure, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance and impacting stakeholder perceptions.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Board Change with Shanahan’s Retirement
Oct 22, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the retirement of Lauri Shanahan from its Board of Directors, effective 16 October 2025. This change in the board’s composition may impact the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially influencing its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

Treasury Wine Estates Expands Board Capacity with Constitutional Amendment
Oct 16, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced an amendment to its Constitution following approval by shareholders at the 2025 Annual General Meeting. The amendment increases the maximum number of directors from nine to ten, potentially allowing for broader governance and strategic input as the company continues to navigate the competitive wine industry.

Treasury Wine Estates Confirms Board Stability at 2025 AGM
Oct 16, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited held its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where several resolutions were passed, including the election and re-election of directors. The results indicate strong support for the board’s composition, reflecting stability and continuity in the company’s governance. This outcome is likely to reinforce investor confidence and support the company’s strategic direction.

Treasury Wine Estates Prepares for 2025 AGM Amidst Market Challenges
Oct 15, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced its Annual General Meeting to be held on October 16, 2025, in Melbourne and online. The meeting will address shareholders on various strategic and operational aspects, with a focus on adapting to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions. The announcement highlights challenges such as logistical issues, foreign exchange impacts, and geopolitical risks, which may affect the company’s operations and market positioning.

Treasury Wine Estates Faces Market Challenges and Distribution Changes
Oct 12, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced updates on its F26 performance expectations, highlighting challenges in the Chinese market for its Penfolds brand due to evolving consumption dynamics and weak depletions. The company is implementing strategies to mitigate these impacts by reallocating products to other markets. In the Americas, the company faces uncertainties due to a distribution transition in California, impacting its shipments and financial outlook. Treasury Wine Estates is negotiating with its former distributor to manage inventory and minimize financial impacts, but has withdrawn its guidance for EBITS growth in both Penfolds and Treasury Americas for F26.

Treasury Wine Estates Issues Unquoted Performance Rights
Oct 10, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the issuance of 1,717,401 unquoted performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These securities are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until the restrictions are lifted, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to incentivize and retain its workforce.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Cessation of Deferred Share Rights
Oct 10, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the cessation of 2,852 deferred share rights due to unmet conditions, effective August 19, 2025. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting the challenges in meeting certain operational or financial conditions.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces CEO Transition and Final Director’s Interest Notice
Oct 6, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the finalization of Tim Ford’s interests as he steps down as CEO and Managing Director. Following his departure on September 30, 2025, a total of 309,711 performance rights under the FY24 and FY25 Long Term Incentive Plans lapsed, aligning with previously disclosed leaving entitlements.

Treasury Wine Estates Unveils 2025 Sustainability Report
Oct 3, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has released its 2025 Cultivating a Brighter Future Report, previously known as the Sustainability Report, for the year ending June 30, 2025. This report reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to sustainability and its strategic efforts to enhance its environmental and social impact, which are crucial for maintaining its competitive edge and fulfilling stakeholder expectations.

Treasury Wine Estates Updates on Share Buy-Back Program
Oct 1, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program. As of the latest notification, the company has repurchased a total of 3,814,185 securities, with an additional 175,000 bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Treasury Wine Estates Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Sep 30, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program. As of the latest announcement, the company has repurchased a total of 3,679,185 shares, with an additional 135,000 shares bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure.

Treasury Wine Estates Director Acquires Additional Shares
Sep 29, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced a change in the relevant interests of its Non-Executive Director, Leslie Frank, who acquired 20,700 ordinary shares through an on-market trade. This acquisition may indicate confidence in the company’s future performance and could potentially impact the company’s stock market perception and stakeholder interests.

Treasury Wine Estates Cancels Shares in Ongoing Buyback Program
Sep 29, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the cancellation of ordinary shares bought back between September 1 and September 26, 2025, as part of its ongoing on-market share buyback program. This move is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and could potentially enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares outstanding.

Treasury Wine Estates Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Sep 25, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced an update on its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of the latest update, the company has repurchased a total of 3,679,185 ordinary fully paid securities, with 200,000 bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative reflects the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Treasury Wine Estates Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Sep 24, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of September 24, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 3,389,185 ordinary fully paid securities, with an additional 90,000 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure effectively and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Treasury Wine Estates Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Sep 22, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, with a total of 280,000 ordinary fully paid securities bought back on the previous day, adding to the cumulative total of 2,959,185 securities. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Treasury Wine Estates CEO Acquires Additional Shares
Sep 17, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced a change in the relevant interests of its CEO and Managing Director, Tim Ford, who acquired 71,309 ordinary shares under the company’s Short Term Incentive Plan. This change reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perception.

Treasury Wine Estates Updates Dividend Distribution Details
Sep 15, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has updated its previous announcement regarding the dividend distribution for its ordinary fully paid securities. The update includes the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) price, which is relevant for stakeholders interested in the financial aspects of their investments. This announcement pertains to the dividend distribution for the six-month period ending on June 30, 2025, with the record date set for August 28, 2025.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces 2025 AGM Notice
Sep 15, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the release of its Notice of the 2025 Annual General Meeting, along with related documents, to its shareholders. This announcement, authorized by the Board, is a routine procedure that ensures transparency and keeps shareholders informed about the company’s governance and upcoming decisions.

Treasury Wine Estates Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Sep 15, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced an update on its ongoing on-market buy-back program, detailing the acquisition of 313,000 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, bringing the total number of securities bought back to 2,646,185. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Treasury Wine Estates Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Sep 11, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back of ordinary fully paid securities. As of the latest notification, the company has bought back a total of 2,646,185 securities, including 377,207 on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Treasury Wine Estates Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Sep 10, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of the latest notification, the company has repurchased a total of 1,824,978 securities before the previous day, with an additional 444,000 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure effectively, potentially enhancing shareholder value and signaling confidence in its financial health.

Treasury Wine Estates Updates on Buy-Back Program
Sep 7, 2025

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced an update on its ongoing on-market buy-back program, revealing that a total of 1,644,978 securities have been bought back to date, with an additional 180,000 securities purchased on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 14, 2025