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Treasury Wine Estates Limited
(Sydney:TWE)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.50
▲(16.28% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/23/26
The score is driven primarily by a reasonably solid underlying financial base (especially cash flow) but moderated by earnings-call risks (impairment-led statutory loss, margin and cash flow pressure, dividend suspension). Technicals add caution due to overbought signals and a weaker long-term trend, while valuation is mixed given the high yield but negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Premium brand strength (Penfolds)
Penfolds' strong demand and high-margin profile provide durable earnings support and cash generation. With depletions rising and management guiding ~40% Penfolds EBITS margin, the premium franchise underpins margin resilience, pricing power and long-term brand equity across channels.
Negative Factors
Large U.S. impairment and statutory loss
A major noncash impairment materially reduced reported equity and removed goodwill, signaling that prior U.S. investments underperformed. This diminishes booked asset value, can constrain future ROE and requires management to rebuild underlying earnings rather than rely on accounting recoveries.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Premium brand strength (Penfolds)
Penfolds' strong demand and high-margin profile provide durable earnings support and cash generation. With depletions rising and management guiding ~40% Penfolds EBITS margin, the premium franchise underpins margin resilience, pricing power and long-term brand equity across channels.
Read all positive factors
Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$4.66B
Dividend Yield6.77%
Average Volume (3M)6.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth-12.18%
EPS Growth-347.47%
CountryAU
Employees2,500
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.33
Shares Outstanding807,437,260
10 Day Avg. Volume8,951,885
30 Day Avg. Volume6,001,221
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio48.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$5.70Price Target Upside20.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$2.44B
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) stands as a prominent global wine enterprise, conducting its business activities across key markets including Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. Its comprehensive op...
How the Company Makes Money
TWE primarily makes money by selling branded wine to trade customers (e.g., distributors, retailers, and on-premise venues such as restaurants and bars) and, in some markets, through direct-to-consumer channels (where applicable). Revenue is gener...
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflects a balanced picture: significant operational progress and brand strength (notably Penfolds) and clear, time-bound transformation actions (Project Ascent, inventory rebalancing, U.S. strategic review) are set against very large one-off impairments, inventory write-downs and short-term margin/headline earnings pressure. Management reiterated F'27 EBITS guidance (at least equivalent to F'26), highlighted strong liquidity and a pathway to below 2x leverage by end F'28, but the scale of the material charges and Americas restructuring are meaningful near-term negatives. Overall, the tone is constructive and forward-looking but tempered by substantial near-term financial impacts.Positive Updates
EBITS Ahead of Guidance
F'26 EBITS of $492 million, ahead of guidance and driven by strong Penfolds performance in Q4.
Negative Updates
Large Material Charges and Impairments
Post-tax material charge of $1.3 billion for the full year (includes $458M recognized in H2 for U.S. supply chain rebalancing and a further $100M impairment of U.S. brands). Additional announced $558M impairment relating to U.S. supply chain rebalancing recognized in H2; drivers include asset impairments, write-off of Vintage '26 costs and bulk wine inventory write-downs.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
EBITS Ahead of Guidance
F'26 EBITS of $492 million, ahead of guidance and driven by strong Penfolds performance in Q4.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated FY27 group EBITS guidance to be at least equivalent to FY26 (FY26 EBITS $492m) and provided regional FY27 EBITS ranges: Greater China $280–$310m (H2‑weighted), Emerging Markets $95–$115m, Americas ≈ $50m (H2‑weighted) and ANZ & Europe $100–$120m; Ascent is expected to deliver $100m p.a. run‑rate savings by FY29 with ~ $40m in FY27 and one‑off Ascent costs largely recognized by FY28 (Ascent cash‑positive post‑divestment), leverage was 2.8x (expected peak) with a target <2x by end FY28, available liquidity $1.3bn plus $300m of additional commitments, FY27 CapEx ≈ $75m (FY26 CapEx $113.4m), net operating cash flow before I/T/material items $535.3m (cash conversion 81.4%), inventory actions include ~200k cases destocked in China (half of a 400k target, on track for completion in FY27) and a planned 300k case U.S. reduction over ~18 months (RNDC exposure now <3% of America’s NSR after ~40% of repurchased inventory was resold at 0 margin); other FY26 metrics cited were pre‑material NPAT $275m, EPS $0.34, EBITS margin 19% and ROCE 7.9%, and the dividend remains suspended.Treasury Wine Estates Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
75
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.63B | 2.94B | 2.81B | 2.49B | 2.53B |
| Gross Profit | 1.04B | 1.37B | 1.23B | 1.07B | 1.03B |
| EBITDA | 604.90M | 1.03B | 528.90M | 636.70M | 644.40M |
| Net Income | -1.08B | 436.90M | 98.90M | 254.50M | 263.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.43B | 8.31B | 8.11B | 7.09B | 6.66B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 221.80M | 427.70M | 458.10M | 565.80M | 430.50M |
| Total Debt | 2.00B | 2.20B | 2.16B | 1.94B | 1.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.08B | 3.51B | 3.50B | 3.21B | 2.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.33B | 4.78B | 4.59B | 3.86B | 3.78B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 79.70M | 388.60M | 241.60M | 23.00M | 449.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 190.40M | 525.70M | 431.70M | 272.00M | 562.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -52.40M | -149.00M | -1.32B | -111.40M | -408.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -331.00M | -408.50M | 783.00M | -27.20M | -184.80M |
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
4.73
Price Trends
4.84
Positive
4.49
Positive
4.84
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Negative
72.59
Negative
76.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TWE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.08, below the 50-day MA of 4.84, and below the 200-day MA of 4.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.59 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:TWE.
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | AU$6.37B | 16.88 | 9.59% | 4.96% | 1.28% | -15.05% | |
63 Neutral | AU$4.66B | -4.44 | -10.03% | 8.46% | -12.18% | -347.47% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | AU$31.79B | 30.97 | 26.38% | 3.06% | 1.26% | -8.33% | |
62 Neutral | AU$3.41B | 12.36 | 16.56% | 6.06% | 0.18% | -1.74% | |
54 Neutral | AU$48.32B | 81.63 | 12.60% | 2.27% | 1.54% | -63.29% | |
43 Neutral | AU$23.39M | -0.62 | -16.84% | ― | 1.80% | 75.09% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
5.91
-1.71
-22.45%
AU:WOW
Woolworths Group Ltd
40.00
8.55
27.17%
AU:AVG
Australian Vintage Ltd
0.07
-0.02
-21.74%
AU:COL
Coles Group
23.54
3.16
15.53%
AU:MTS
Metcash Limited
3.09
-0.84
-21.35%
AU:EDV
Endeavour Group Ltd
3.57
-0.43
-10.68%
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Corporate Events
Macquarie exits substantial holder position in Treasury Wine Estates
Aug 3, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a notice stating they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Treasury Wine Estates. The filing, signed by an assistant company secretary, details changes in relevant interests in T...
Treasury Wine Estates Reports Lapse of 538,766 Performance Rights
Jul 9, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates Limited has notified the market that 538,766 performance rights, trading under the ASX code TWEAA, have lapsed. The lapse occurred because the conditional rights to these securities did not meet, or could no longer meet, the ...
Treasury Wine Estates Reports Lapse of Deferred Share Rights
Jul 9, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has reported the lapse of 13,146 deferred share rights, which ceased on April 1, 2026 after the conditions attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation, disclosed via an Appendix...
Treasury Wine Estates Issues New Shares from Unquoted Equity Conversion
Jul 9, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has notified the market of the issue and transfer of 3,129 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted equity securities. The new shares, dated April 1, 2026, reflect routine equity ...
Treasury Wine Estates Outlines Strategy and Outlook at 2026 Investor Day
Jun 3, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has released materials for its 2026 Investor Day, outlining updates on its financial outlook, future brand portfolio, supply chain transformation, and a strategic and operational review of its Americas business. The company w...
Treasury Wine Estates Brings Forward CFO Retirement and Appoints Interim Successor
May 26, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has accelerated the retirement date of its Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Stuart Boxer, from 30 September 2026 to 30 June 2026. The move brings forward a leadership transition in the finance function at a major listed ...
JPMorgan Exits Substantial Holder Position in Treasury Wine Estates
May 11, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has disclosed that JPMorgan Chase Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company, following a series of transactions involving securities lending and proprietary trading. The notice, lodged...
JPMorgan Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Treasury Wine Estates
May 5, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and its affiliates have notified Treasury Wine Estates that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 1 May 2026. The change reflects adjustments in securities holdings and lending activities by JPMorgan ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.