Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$6.32B
• Dividend Yield: 5.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.78M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 6.47%
• EPS Growth: 281.30%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 2,600
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 811,426,450
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,188,903
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,777,030
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$9.71
• Price Target Upside: 24.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$8.50 ▲(9.11% Upside)

Treasury Wine Estates Limited's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with strong profitability and cash flow management. The earnings call provided positive insights, particularly in brand growth and sustainability efforts. While technical analysis shows mixed signals, the stock's valuation is attractive with a reasonable P/E ratio and high dividend yield. Challenges in revenue growth and distribution need addressing to sustain long-term performance.

Positive Factors

Market Opportunity

TA could benefit given that 30% of the US wine market is imported, the bulk of which is coming from the EU.

Tariff Risk

Tariff risk is minimal given 85% of TA divisional EBIT is produced in the US.

Valuation Attractiveness

TWE's valuation is attractive supported by MS forecast NAV per share estimate of ~A$9.0/shr vs A$8.95/shr last price.

Negative Factors

Consumption Trends

Depletion softness in some ultra-luxury tiers and changes in consumption trends are affecting Penfolds' growth expectations.

Market Challenges

The industry backdrop, including a softer US market and weakness in Penfolds China, presents challenges for Treasury Wine Estates.

Net Sales Revenue

Distribution partner transition is expected to impact Net Sales Revenue and create a margin headwind, leading to no growth in Treasury Americas' EBITS.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Treasury Wine Estates Limited operates as a wine company primarily in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. The company engages in the viticulture and winemaking; and marketing, sale, and distribution of wine. Its wine portfolio includes luxury, premium and commercial wine brands, such as 19 Crimes, Acacia Vineyard, Annie's Lane, Beaulieu Vineyard, Belcreme de Lys, Beringer Vineyards, Blossom Hill, Cavaliere d'Oro, Coldstream Hills, Devil's Lair, EMBRAZEN, Etude, Fifth Leg, Heemskerk, Hewitt Vineyard, Ingoldby, Jamieson's Run, Killawarra, Leo Buring, Lindeman's, Maison de Grand Esprit, Matua, Penfolds, Pepperjack, Rawson's Retreat, Rosemount Estate, Run Riot, Saltram, Samuel Wynn & Co, Secret Stone, Seppelt, Shingle Peak, Sledgehammer, Squealing pig, St Huberts, Stags' Leap Winery, Stellina di Notte, Sterling Vineyards, T'Gallant, The Walking Dead Wine, Wolf Blass, Wynns Coonawarra Estate, and Yellowglen. The company also provides contract bottling services to third parties; and sells grape and bulk wine. It owns and leases 8,362 planted hectares of vineyards in Australia and New Zealand; 2,702 planted hectares in California, including the Napa Valley, Sonoma County, Lake County, and Central Coast; 90 planted hectares in France's Bordeaux region; and 154 planted hectares in Tuscany, Italy. The company markets and sells its products to distributors, wholesalers, retails chains, independent retailers, and on-premise outlets, as well as directly to consumers. Treasury Wine Estates Limited was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Treasury Wine Estates Limited makes money primarily through the sale of its wine products across various global markets. The company's revenue model is based on the production and distribution of wine from its own vineyards and sourced grapes. Key revenue streams include wholesale distribution to retailers and restaurants, direct-to-consumer sales through online platforms and cellar doors, and exports to international markets. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include its strong brand portfolio, strategic investments in vineyard acquisitions, and partnerships with distributors and retailers worldwide. TWE's focus on premiumization and brand differentiation helps drive profitability, alongside its expansion into emerging markets and investment in digital sales channels.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Treasury Wine Estates Limited shows a stable financial position with strengths in profitability and cash flow management. Despite challenges in revenue growth, the company maintains healthy margins and improved cash flow generation. The balance sheet is solid, though rising debt levels require attention.

Income Statement

Treasury Wine Estates Limited shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company experienced a revenue decline of 4.15% in the most recent year, indicating potential challenges in sales growth. However, the gross profit margin remains healthy, suggesting effective cost management. The net profit margin has improved significantly from the previous year, reflecting enhanced profitability. Despite a decrease in EBIT, the company maintains a solid EBITDA margin, which is a positive indicator of operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Treasury Wine Estates Limited is relatively strong, with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid capital structure. Return on equity has improved, showcasing better utilization of shareholder funds. However, the increase in total debt over the years suggests a need for careful monitoring of leverage levels to avoid potential financial strain.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals positive trends, with a notable growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio has also improved, highlighting effective cash management. These factors contribute to a robust cash flow position, supporting the company's financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.99B	2.94B	2.81B	2.49B	2.53B	2.68B
Gross Profit	1.42B	1.37B	1.23B	1.07B	1.03B	1.16B
EBITDA	966.90M	1.03B	528.90M	636.70M	644.40M	615.30M
Net Income	436.90M	436.90M	98.90M	254.50M	263.20M	250.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.31B	8.31B	8.11B	7.09B	6.66B	6.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	427.70M	427.70M	458.10M	565.80M	430.50M	448.10M
Total Debt	2.20B	2.20B	2.16B	1.94B	1.74B	1.53B
Total Liabilities	3.51B	3.51B	3.50B	3.21B	2.87B	2.69B
Stockholders Equity	4.78B	4.78B	4.59B	3.86B	3.78B	3.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	396.60M	388.60M	241.60M	23.00M	449.80M	350.50M
Operating Cash Flow	525.70M	525.70M	431.70M	272.00M	562.00M	471.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-149.00M	-149.00M	-1.32B	-111.40M	-408.60M	-59.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-408.50M	-408.50M	783.00M	-27.20M	-184.80M	-403.60M

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 7.79
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TWE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.73, above the 50-day MA of 7.71, and below the 200-day MA of 9.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:TWE.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TWE	72 Outperform	AU$6.32B	14.47	9.13%	5.13%	6.47%	281.30%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.52B	14.79	-2.72%	3.09%	1.95%	-4.74%
AUVGF	―	$26.99M	―	-4.54%	―	―	―
EDV	60 Neutral	AU$6.66B	15.64	11.20%	5.05%	-2.04%	-16.79%
LRK	47 Neutral	AU$79.84M	―	-10.39%	―	2.62%	-85.79%
TSI	42 Neutral	AU$13.00M	―	-67.01%	―	―	―
ZNO	40 Underperform	AU$13.00M	―	-77.92%	―	17.41%	67.94%

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Corporate Events

Treasury Wine Estates Appoints New Distributor in California

Treasury Wine Estates has appointed Breakthru Beverage Group as its exclusive distributor in California for its Treasury Americas and Treasury Collective US portfolios, effective from September 1, 2025. This decision follows the cessation of operations by Republic National Distributing Company in California and reflects the strategic partnership and extensive distribution capabilities of Breakthru Beverage Group. While the financial impact of this change remains uncertain, Treasury Wine Estates anticipates modest EBITS growth for Treasury Americas in the fiscal year 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Cessation of Deferred Share Rights

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the cessation of 6,100 deferred share rights due to unmet conditions, effective April 1, 2025. This development may impact the company’s capital structure but is not expected to have significant implications for its overall market positioning or stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Issues New Equity Securities

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the issuance of 2,469 unquoted equity securities, which have been converted from unquoted options or other convertible securities. This move signifies the company’s strategic financial adjustments and could influence its market positioning by potentially increasing its equity base.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Chairman Increases Stake in Company

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced a change in the securities interests of its Non-Executive Director and Chairman, John Mullen. Mr. Mullen acquired an additional 38,500 ordinary shares through an on-market trade, reflecting a strategic move that could influence the company’s market perception and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Change in Substantial Holder Interests

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has reported a change in the interests of a substantial holder, with the voting power increasing from 5.0441% to 6.1125%. This change in voting power could potentially impact the company’s governance and decision-making processes, reflecting a shift in stakeholder influence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Secures Court Approval for Class Action Settlement

Treasury Wine Estates announced the Supreme Court of Victoria’s approval of a $A65 million settlement for a consolidated shareholder class action. This settlement, covered by insurance and involving no admission of liability, allows the company to focus on its strategic goals, reflecting a prudent decision for shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Change in Substantial Holder Interests

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced a significant change in the interests of a substantial holder, specifically State Street Bank and Trust Company and its subsidiaries. This change reflects a shift in voting power and control over a substantial number of ordinary shares, which may impact the company’s governance and influence in its strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase Ceases Substantial Holding in Treasury Wine Estates

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders in Treasury Wine Estates Limited, as detailed in a recent notice. This change in substantial holding involves various transactions, including securities lending and proprietary trading, and may affect the company’s shareholder structure and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Substantial Shareholder Acquires Stake in Treasury Wine Estates

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced that a substantial holder has acquired a 5.0441% voting power in the company as of May 30, 2025. This development could potentially impact the company’s shareholder dynamics and influence its strategic decisions, reflecting a notable shift in its ownership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Adjusts Distribution Strategy Amid California Changes

Treasury Wine Estates announced that Republic National Distributing Company will cease its operations in California by September 2025. TWE is actively seeking alternative distribution arrangements to maintain its market presence in California, and despite the change, the company expects its F25 EBITS to be approximately $770 million, slightly lower than previously forecasted due to weaker consumer demand in the US.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Ceases Substantial Holding in Treasury Wine Estates

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders of Treasury Wine Estates Limited as of May 28, 2025. This change in holdings may impact the company’s market dynamics and influence investor perceptions, as JPMorgan’s involvement in the company’s securities has shifted, potentially affecting stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase Acquires Substantial Stake in Treasury Wine Estates

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have become substantial holders in Treasury Wine Estates Limited, acquiring a 5.05% voting power in the company. This development indicates a significant investment interest from a major financial institution, potentially impacting Treasury Wine Estates’ market dynamics and signaling confidence in the company’s future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Appoints Sam Fischer as New CEO

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the appointment of Sam Fischer as the new CEO and Managing Director, effective October 27, 2025, succeeding Tim Ford. Fischer, with over 30 years of experience in the alcohol beverages and luxury brands sectors, is expected to lead TWE into its next phase of growth and performance, building on the strong foundations laid by Ford, who has significantly transformed the company during his tenure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.