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Treasury Wine Estates Limited
(Sydney:TWE)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
AU$6.00
â–²(26.85% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial performance in 2026 (large statutory loss, margin compression, and sharply lower cash flow), which raises near-term earnings and equity/returns risk. Technicals are supportive due to a clear uptrend and positive MACD, but overbought signals temper that benefit. The earnings call adds a moderate positive via reiterated FY27 EBITS guidance, liquidity, and transformation savings, but is offset by sizable impairments and continued U.S. restructuring/inventory actions. Valuation is mixed: a high yield helps, but a negative P/E reflects the recent loss-making outcome.
Positive Factors
Penfolds brand strength
Penfolds’ sustained demand growth across major Asian and Australian markets reinforces TWE’s premium brand equity. Stronger awareness and reduced parallel imports can support pricing, mix and long-term growth in attractive premium wine categories.
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin deterioration
The sharp revenue decline and gross-margin compression indicate weaker mix, pricing and/or cost absorption, not merely a temporary earnings fluctuation. Sustained pressure would reduce the cash available for brand investment, debt reduction and shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Penfolds brand strength
Penfolds’ sustained demand growth across major Asian and Australian markets reinforces TWE’s premium brand equity. Stronger awareness and reduced parallel imports can support pricing, mix and long-term growth in attractive premium wine categories.
Read all positive factors
Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$4.77B
Dividend Yield6.94%
Average Volume (3M)6.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth-12.18%
EPS Growth-347.47%
CountryAU
Employees2,700
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.33
Shares Outstanding808,937,260
10 Day Avg. Volume8,951,885
30 Day Avg. Volume6,001,221
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio48.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$5.99Price Target Upside26.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$2.44B
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) stands as a prominent global wine enterprise, conducting its business activities across key markets including Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. Its comprehensive op...
How the Company Makes Money
TWE primarily makes money by selling branded wine to trade customers (e.g., distributors, retailers, and on-premise venues such as restaurants and bars) and, in some markets, through direct-to-consumer channels (where applicable). Revenue is gener...
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflects a balanced picture: significant operational progress and brand strength (notably Penfolds) and clear, time-bound transformation actions (Project Ascent, inventory rebalancing, U.S. strategic review) are set against very large one-off impairments, inventory write-downs and short-term margin/headline earnings pressure. Management reiterated F'27 EBITS guidance (at least equivalent to F'26), highlighted strong liquidity and a pathway to below 2x leverage by end F'28, but the scale of the material charges and Americas restructuring are meaningful near-term negatives. Overall, the tone is constructive and forward-looking but tempered by substantial near-term financial impacts.Positive Updates
EBITS Ahead of Guidance
F'26 EBITS of $492 million, ahead of guidance and driven by strong Penfolds performance in Q4.
Negative Updates
Large Material Charges and Impairments
Post-tax material charge of $1.3 billion for the full year (includes $458M recognized in H2 for U.S. supply chain rebalancing and a further $100M impairment of U.S. brands). Additional announced $558M impairment relating to U.S. supply chain rebalancing recognized in H2; drivers include asset impairments, write-off of Vintage '26 costs and bulk wine inventory write-downs.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
EBITS Ahead of Guidance
F'26 EBITS of $492 million, ahead of guidance and driven by strong Penfolds performance in Q4.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated FY27 group EBITS guidance to be at least equivalent to FY26 (FY26 EBITS $492m) and provided regional FY27 EBITS ranges: Greater China $280–$310m (H2‑weighted), Emerging Markets $95–$115m, Americas ≈ $50m (H2‑weighted) and ANZ & Europe $100–$120m; Ascent is expected to deliver $100m p.a. run‑rate savings by FY29 with ~ $40m in FY27 and one‑off Ascent costs largely recognized by FY28 (Ascent cash‑positive post‑divestment), leverage was 2.8x (expected peak) with a target <2x by end FY28, available liquidity $1.3bn plus $300m of additional commitments, FY27 CapEx ≈ $75m (FY26 CapEx $113.4m), net operating cash flow before I/T/material items $535.3m (cash conversion 81.4%), inventory actions include ~200k cases destocked in China (half of a 400k target, on track for completion in FY27) and a planned 300k case U.S. reduction over ~18 months (RNDC exposure now <3% of America’s NSR after ~40% of repurchased inventory was resold at 0 margin); other FY26 metrics cited were pre‑material NPAT $275m, EPS $0.34, EBITS margin 19% and ROCE 7.9%, and the dividend remains suspended.Treasury Wine Estates Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
48
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.63B | 2.94B | 2.81B | 2.49B | 2.53B |
| Gross Profit | 1.04B | 1.37B | 1.23B | 1.07B | 1.03B |
| EBITDA | 604.90M | 1.03B | 528.90M | 636.70M | 644.40M |
| Net Income | -1.08B | 436.90M | 98.90M | 254.50M | 263.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.43B | 8.31B | 8.11B | 7.09B | 6.66B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 221.80M | 427.70M | 458.10M | 565.80M | 430.50M |
| Total Debt | 2.00B | 2.20B | 2.16B | 1.94B | 1.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.08B | 3.51B | 3.50B | 3.21B | 2.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.33B | 4.78B | 4.59B | 3.86B | 3.78B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 79.70M | 388.60M | 241.60M | 23.00M | 449.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 190.40M | 525.70M | 431.70M | 272.00M | 562.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -52.40M | -149.00M | -1.32B | -111.40M | -408.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -331.00M | -408.50M | 783.00M | -27.20M | -184.80M |
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
4.73
Price Trends
4.87
Positive
4.52
Positive
4.84
Positive
Market Momentum
0.28
Negative
74.93
Negative
81.24
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TWE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.14, below the 50-day MA of 4.87, and below the 200-day MA of 4.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.93 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:TWE.
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | AU$6.41B | 16.24 | 9.59% | 4.96% | 1.28% | -15.05% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | AU$31.62B | 30.47 | 26.38% | 3.06% | 1.26% | -8.33% | |
62 Neutral | AU$3.40B | 12.20 | 16.56% | 6.06% | 0.18% | -1.74% | |
57 Neutral | AU$4.77B | -4.28 | -29.99% | 8.46% | -12.18% | -347.47% | |
54 Neutral | AU$48.66B | 80.45 | 12.60% | 2.27% | 1.54% | -63.29% | |
43 Neutral | AU$23.72M | -0.65 | -16.84% | ― | 1.80% | 75.09% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
5.76
-1.97
-25.47%
AU:WOW
Woolworths Group Ltd
40.21
8.69
27.56%
AU:AVG
Australian Vintage Ltd
0.07
-0.02
-20.88%
AU:COL
Coles Group
23.44
3.08
15.15%
AU:MTS
Metcash Limited
3.08
-0.89
-22.36%
AU:EDV
Endeavour Group Ltd
3.52
-0.49
-12.15%
Treasury Wine Estates Limited Corporate Events
Treasury Wine Estates Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Aug 14, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 1,233,562 new ordinary fully paid shares, which are being issued under the company’s employee incentive scheme and are scheduled to be issued on August 17, 2026. The move ...
Treasury Wine Estates to List 266,438 New Ordinary Shares on ASX
Aug 14, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has applied to the ASX for quotation of 266,438 new ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 17 August 2026. The additional securities arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible in...
Treasury Wine Estates Issues Updated 2026 Fact Book for Investors
Aug 13, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates Limited has released its updated 2026 Fact Book, an annual publication designed to improve understanding of the company’s global operations. The document offers investors and other stakeholders a consolidated reference ...
Treasury Wine Estates Releases 2026 Corporate Governance Statement
Aug 13, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has released its Corporate Governance Statement for the year ended 30 June 2026, together with its Appendix 4G, confirming compliance with the fourth edition of the ASX Corporate Governance Principles and Recommendations. The...
Treasury Wine Estates releases 2026 full-year results presentation
Aug 13, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has released its presentation materials for the 2026 full-year results investor and analyst webcast and conference call, scheduled for 13 August 2026 at 10:00am AEST. The materials accompany the company’s 2026 Annual Re...
Treasury Wine Estates Absorbs Heavy U.S. Impairments as It Resets for Profit Recovery
Aug 13, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates reported fiscal 2026 EBITS of A$492.3m, slightly above guidance but down 36.1% year on year as weaker category trends, portfolio mix and deliberate shipment reductions weighed on performance, and statutory NPAT swung to a A$1...
Treasury Wine Estates swings to $1.1bn loss and suspends dividend in 2026
Aug 13, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has released its 2026 Annual Report, detailing a sharp downturn in financial performance for the year ended 30 June 2026. Revenue from ordinary activities fell 12.2% to $2.63 billion, while the company swung to a net loss att...
Treasury Wine Estates Unveils Regional Model with Historical Financials
Aug 9, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates will transition to a new regional operating model from 1 October 2026, reorganising its business into four geographic divisions: Greater China, the Americas, Australia and New Zealand Europe, and Emerging Markets. The move i...
Macquarie exits substantial holder position in Treasury Wine Estates
Aug 3, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a notice stating they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Treasury Wine Estates. The filing, signed by an assistant company secretary, details changes in relevant interests in T...
Treasury Wine Estates Reports Lapse of 538,766 Performance Rights
Jul 9, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates Limited has notified the market that 538,766 performance rights, trading under the ASX code TWEAA, have lapsed. The lapse occurred because the conditional rights to these securities did not meet, or could no longer meet, the ...
Treasury Wine Estates Reports Lapse of Deferred Share Rights
Jul 9, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has reported the lapse of 13,146 deferred share rights, which ceased on April 1, 2026 after the conditions attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation, disclosed via an Appendix...
Treasury Wine Estates Issues New Shares from Unquoted Equity Conversion
Jul 9, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has notified the market of the issue and transfer of 3,129 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted equity securities. The new shares, dated April 1, 2026, reflect routine equity ...
Treasury Wine Estates Outlines Strategy and Outlook at 2026 Investor Day
Jun 3, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has released materials for its 2026 Investor Day, outlining updates on its financial outlook, future brand portfolio, supply chain transformation, and a strategic and operational review of its Americas business. The company w...
Treasury Wine Estates Brings Forward CFO Retirement and Appoints Interim Successor
May 26, 2026
Treasury Wine Estates has accelerated the retirement date of its Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Stuart Boxer, from 30 September 2026 to 30 June 2026. The move brings forward a leadership transition in the finance function at a major listed ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.