Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.29B
• Dividend Yield: 4.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.11M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 6.47%
• EPS Growth: 281.30%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 2,600
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 811,426,450
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,218,847
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,108,627
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.07
• 1Y Price Target: $10.11
• Price Target Upside: 29.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$8.50 ▲(8.70% Upside)

Treasury Wine Estates Limited's overall score reflects its strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, particularly in the luxury segment. However, technical analysis shows mixed signals, and a high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation risks, balancing out the positive factors.

Positive Factors

Market Opportunities

TA could benefit given that 30% of the US wine market is imported, the bulk of which is coming from the EU.

Tariff Risk

Tariff risk is minimal given 85% of TA divisional EBIT is produced in the US.

Valuation

TWE's valuation is attractive supported by MS forecast NAV per share estimate of ~A$9.0/shr vs A$8.95/shr last price.

Negative Factors

Growth Expectations

Depletion softness in some ultra-luxury tiers and changes in consumption trends are affecting Penfolds' growth expectations.

Market Challenges

The industry backdrop, including a softer US market and weakness in Penfolds China, presents challenges for Treasury Wine Estates.

Net Sales Revenue

Distribution partner transition is expected to impact Net Sales Revenue and create a margin headwind, leading to no growth in Treasury Americas' EBITS.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) is a global wine company with a portfolio that includes some of the most recognized and awarded wine brands in the world. The company operates in the wine production, marketing, and distribution sectors, offering a diverse range of premium, commercial, and luxury wines. With operations throughout the Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe, and Australia, TWE is involved in every stage of the winemaking process, from vineyard management to production and sales.

How the Company Makes Money

Treasury Wine Estates Limited makes money primarily through the sale of its wine products across various global markets. The company's revenue model is based on the production and distribution of wine from its own vineyards and sourced grapes. Key revenue streams include wholesale distribution to retailers and restaurants, direct-to-consumer sales through online platforms and cellar doors, and exports to international markets. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include its strong brand portfolio, strategic investments in vineyard acquisitions, and partnerships with distributors and retailers worldwide. TWE's focus on premiumization and brand differentiation helps drive profitability, alongside its expansion into emerging markets and investment in digital sales channels.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Treasury Wine Estates Limited exhibits strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, as evidenced by solid margins and effective cost management. The balance sheet remains stable with a healthy equity base, though profitability relative to equity could be enhanced. Cash flow performance is strong with substantial free cash flow growth, yet further improvements in cash conversion are desirable.

Income Statement

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has shown consistent revenue growth with a 12.87% increase from the previous year, indicating strong sales performance. The Gross Profit Margin stands at 43.94%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the Net Profit Margin declined to 3.52%, highlighting potential challenges in cost control or increased expenses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are 21.81% and 18.83%, respectively, showing stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's Debt-to-Equity Ratio is 0.47, suggesting a balanced leverage position. Return on Equity (ROE) has decreased to 2.15%, indicating reduced profitability relative to shareholders' equity. The Equity Ratio is 56.61%, suggesting a strong equity base in its asset structure. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability, but profitability metrics could be improved.

Cash Flow

The Free Cash Flow grew by 945.22%, indicating significant improvement in cash generation. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 4.37, reflecting strong cash conversion from earnings. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio at 2.44 suggests a need for improvement in translating earnings into free cash flow. Overall, cash flow management is robust but requires attention to sustain long-term growth.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.81B	2.49B	2.53B	2.68B	2.68B
Gross Profit	1.23B	1.07B	1.03B	1.16B	1.09B
EBITDA	528.90M	636.70M	644.40M	615.30M	652.00M
Net Income	98.90M	254.50M	263.20M	250.00M	260.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.11B	7.09B	6.66B	6.28B	6.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	458.10M	565.80M	430.50M	448.10M	449.10M
Total Debt	2.16B	1.94B	1.74B	1.53B	1.93B
Total Liabilities	3.50B	3.21B	2.87B	2.69B	3.05B
Stockholders Equity	4.59B	3.86B	3.78B	3.59B	3.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	241.60M	23.00M	449.80M	350.50M	222.30M
Operating Cash Flow	431.70M	272.00M	562.00M	471.70M	366.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.32B	-111.40M	-408.60M	-59.40M	-66.70M
Financing Cash Flow	783.00M	-27.20M	-184.80M	-403.60M	-252.40M

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 7.82
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TWE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.77, below the 50-day MA of 7.92, and below the 200-day MA of 9.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:TWE.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EDV	73 Outperform	AU$7.50B	16.35	11.71%	4.78%	1.78%	-11.07%
Sector *	66 Neutral	£7.76B	8.46	7.55%	3.55%	2.08%	24.83%
TWE	61 Neutral	$6.29B	14.39	9.13%	4.99%	6.47%	281.30%
AVG	50 Neutral	$32.62M	―	-38.39%	―	-2.72%	-1624.66%
LRK	50 Neutral	AU$81.13M	―	-4.70%	―	-7.45%	-0.15%
TSI	42 Neutral	AU$13.00M	―	-67.01%	―	―	―
ZNO	40 Underperform	AU$12.09M	―	-79.75%	―	-48.53%	55.02%

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Corporate Events

Treasury Wine Estates Appoints New Distributor in California

Treasury Wine Estates has appointed Breakthru Beverage Group as its exclusive distributor in California for its Treasury Americas and Treasury Collective US portfolios, effective from September 1, 2025. This decision follows the cessation of operations by Republic National Distributing Company in California and reflects the strategic partnership and extensive distribution capabilities of Breakthru Beverage Group. While the financial impact of this change remains uncertain, Treasury Wine Estates anticipates modest EBITS growth for Treasury Americas in the fiscal year 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Cessation of Deferred Share Rights

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the cessation of 6,100 deferred share rights due to unmet conditions, effective April 1, 2025. This development may impact the company’s capital structure but is not expected to have significant implications for its overall market positioning or stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Issues New Equity Securities

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the issuance of 2,469 unquoted equity securities, which have been converted from unquoted options or other convertible securities. This move signifies the company’s strategic financial adjustments and could influence its market positioning by potentially increasing its equity base.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Chairman Increases Stake in Company

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced a change in the securities interests of its Non-Executive Director and Chairman, John Mullen. Mr. Mullen acquired an additional 38,500 ordinary shares through an on-market trade, reflecting a strategic move that could influence the company’s market perception and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Change in Substantial Holder Interests

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has reported a change in the interests of a substantial holder, with the voting power increasing from 5.0441% to 6.1125%. This change in voting power could potentially impact the company’s governance and decision-making processes, reflecting a shift in stakeholder influence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Secures Court Approval for Class Action Settlement

Treasury Wine Estates announced the Supreme Court of Victoria’s approval of a $A65 million settlement for a consolidated shareholder class action. This settlement, covered by insurance and involving no admission of liability, allows the company to focus on its strategic goals, reflecting a prudent decision for shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Change in Substantial Holder Interests

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced a significant change in the interests of a substantial holder, specifically State Street Bank and Trust Company and its subsidiaries. This change reflects a shift in voting power and control over a substantial number of ordinary shares, which may impact the company’s governance and influence in its strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase Ceases Substantial Holding in Treasury Wine Estates

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders in Treasury Wine Estates Limited, as detailed in a recent notice. This change in substantial holding involves various transactions, including securities lending and proprietary trading, and may affect the company’s shareholder structure and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Substantial Shareholder Acquires Stake in Treasury Wine Estates

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced that a substantial holder has acquired a 5.0441% voting power in the company as of May 30, 2025. This development could potentially impact the company’s shareholder dynamics and influence its strategic decisions, reflecting a notable shift in its ownership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Adjusts Distribution Strategy Amid California Changes

Treasury Wine Estates announced that Republic National Distributing Company will cease its operations in California by September 2025. TWE is actively seeking alternative distribution arrangements to maintain its market presence in California, and despite the change, the company expects its F25 EBITS to be approximately $770 million, slightly lower than previously forecasted due to weaker consumer demand in the US.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Ceases Substantial Holding in Treasury Wine Estates

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders of Treasury Wine Estates Limited as of May 28, 2025. This change in holdings may impact the company’s market dynamics and influence investor perceptions, as JPMorgan’s involvement in the company’s securities has shifted, potentially affecting stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase Acquires Substantial Stake in Treasury Wine Estates

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have become substantial holders in Treasury Wine Estates Limited, acquiring a 5.05% voting power in the company. This development indicates a significant investment interest from a major financial institution, potentially impacting Treasury Wine Estates’ market dynamics and signaling confidence in the company’s future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Appoints Sam Fischer as New CEO

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the appointment of Sam Fischer as the new CEO and Managing Director, effective October 27, 2025, succeeding Tim Ford. Fischer, with over 30 years of experience in the alcohol beverages and luxury brands sectors, is expected to lead TWE into its next phase of growth and performance, building on the strong foundations laid by Ford, who has significantly transformed the company during his tenure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.