Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$6.34B
• Dividend Yield: 5.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.95M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: 22.94%
• EPS Growth: -40.23%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 2,600
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 811,426,450
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,942,917
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,945,386
• PEG Ratio: -11.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 352.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$10.46
• Price Target Upside: 33.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$8.00 ▲(2.43%Upside)

Treasury Wine Estates Limited benefits from strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, particularly in its luxury wine segment. However, technical analysis points to bearish conditions, and the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, which tempers the overall stock score.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Treasury Wine Estates Limited operates as a wine company primarily in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. The company engages in the viticulture and winemaking; and marketing, sale, and distribution of wine. Its wine portfolio includes luxury, premium and commercial wine brands, such as 19 Crimes, Acacia Vineyard, Annie's Lane, Beaulieu Vineyard, Belcreme de Lys, Beringer Vineyards, Blossom Hill, Cavaliere d'Oro, Coldstream Hills, Devil's Lair, EMBRAZEN, Etude, Fifth Leg, Heemskerk, Hewitt Vineyard, Ingoldby, Jamieson's Run, Killawarra, Leo Buring, Lindeman's, Maison de Grand Esprit, Matua, Penfolds, Pepperjack, Rawson's Retreat, Rosemount Estate, Run Riot, Saltram, Samuel Wynn & Co, Secret Stone, Seppelt, Shingle Peak, Sledgehammer, Squealing pig, St Huberts, Stags' Leap Winery, Stellina di Notte, Sterling Vineyards, T'Gallant, The Walking Dead Wine, Wolf Blass, Wynns Coonawarra Estate, and Yellowglen. The company also provides contract bottling services to third parties; and sells grape and bulk wine. It owns and leases 8,362 planted hectares of vineyards in Australia and New Zealand; 2,702 planted hectares in California, including the Napa Valley, Sonoma County, Lake County, and Central Coast; 90 planted hectares in France's Bordeaux region; and 154 planted hectares in Tuscany, Italy. The company markets and sells its products to distributors, wholesalers, retails chains, independent retailers, and on-premise outlets, as well as directly to consumers. Treasury Wine Estates Limited was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Treasury Wine Estates Limited makes money primarily through the sale of its wine products to distributors, retailers, and directly to consumers. The company's revenue model focuses on leveraging its premium and luxury wine brands to capture diverse market segments, ranging from mass-market consumers to high-end connoisseurs. TWE generates revenue by distributing its products through multiple channels, including retail, e-commerce, and direct-to-consumer sales. Key revenue streams include domestic sales within Australia, as well as significant international sales in regions like the Americas, Asia, and Europe. TWE's earnings are also supported by strategic partnerships and distribution agreements that expand its market reach. Additionally, the company invests in brand marketing and innovation to enhance its product offerings and maintain competitive advantage.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Treasury Wine Estates Limited exhibits strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, as evidenced by solid margins and effective cost management. The balance sheet remains stable with a healthy equity base, though profitability relative to equity could be enhanced. Cash flow performance is strong with substantial free cash flow growth, yet further improvements in cash conversion are desirable. The company is well-positioned but should focus on optimizing profitability and cash flow conversion.

Income Statement

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has shown consistent revenue growth with a 12.87% increase from the previous year, indicating strong sales performance. The Gross Profit Margin stands at 43.94%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the Net Profit Margin declined to 3.52%, highlighting potential challenges in cost control or increased expenses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are 21.81% and 18.83%, respectively, showing stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's Debt-to-Equity Ratio is 0.47, suggesting a balanced leverage position. Return on Equity (ROE) has decreased to 2.15%, indicating reduced profitability relative to shareholders' equity. The Equity Ratio is 56.61%, suggesting a strong equity base in its asset structure. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability, but profitability metrics could be improved.

Cash Flow

The Free Cash Flow grew by 945.22%, indicating significant improvement in cash generation. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 4.37, reflecting strong cash conversion from earnings. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio at 2.44 suggests a need for improvement in translating earnings into free cash flow. Overall, cash flow management is robust but requires attention to sustain long-term growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.07B	2.81B	2.49B	2.53B	2.68B	2.68B
Gross Profit	1.46B	1.23B	1.07B	1.03B	1.16B	1.09B
EBITDA	451.50M	528.90M	636.70M	644.40M	615.30M	652.00M
Net Income	153.10M	98.90M	254.50M	263.20M	250.00M	260.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.39B	8.11B	7.09B	6.66B	6.28B	6.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	474.70M	458.10M	565.80M	430.50M	448.10M	449.10M
Total Debt	2.34B	2.16B	1.94B	1.74B	1.53B	1.93B
Total Liabilities	3.52B	3.50B	3.21B	2.87B	2.69B	3.05B
Stockholders Equity	4.86B	4.59B	3.86B	3.78B	3.59B	3.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	356.90M	241.60M	23.00M	449.80M	350.50M	222.30M
Operating Cash Flow	542.30M	431.70M	272.00M	562.00M	471.70M	366.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-183.50M	-1.32B	-111.40M	-408.60M	-59.40M	-66.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-330.30M	783.00M	-27.20M	-184.80M	-403.60M	-252.40M

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.81
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TWE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.08, below the 50-day MA of 8.44, and below the 200-day MA of 10.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:TWE.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EDV	73 Outperform	AU$7.18B	15.65	11.71%	6.23%	1.78%	-11.07%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$26.88B	15.06	-4.01%	3.23%	1.02%	2.11%
TWE	59 Neutral	AU$6.34B	41.39	3.25%	5.12%	22.94%	-40.23%
AUVGF		$16.80M	―	-38.39%	―	―	―
TSI	42 Neutral	AU$13.00M	―	-67.01%	―	-3.27%	82.67%
ZNO	40 Underperform	AU$10.66M	―	-79.75%	―	-48.53%	55.02%
LRK	39 Underperform	AU$72.33M	―	-4.70%	―	-7.45%	-0.15%

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Corporate Events

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Change in Substantial Holder Interests

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has reported a change in the interests of a substantial holder, with the voting power increasing from 5.0441% to 6.1125%. This change in voting power could potentially impact the company’s governance and decision-making processes, reflecting a shift in stakeholder influence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Secures Court Approval for Class Action Settlement

Treasury Wine Estates announced the Supreme Court of Victoria’s approval of a $A65 million settlement for a consolidated shareholder class action. This settlement, covered by insurance and involving no admission of liability, allows the company to focus on its strategic goals, reflecting a prudent decision for shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Announces Change in Substantial Holder Interests

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced a significant change in the interests of a substantial holder, specifically State Street Bank and Trust Company and its subsidiaries. This change reflects a shift in voting power and control over a substantial number of ordinary shares, which may impact the company’s governance and influence in its strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase Ceases Substantial Holding in Treasury Wine Estates

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders in Treasury Wine Estates Limited, as detailed in a recent notice. This change in substantial holding involves various transactions, including securities lending and proprietary trading, and may affect the company’s shareholder structure and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Substantial Shareholder Acquires Stake in Treasury Wine Estates

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced that a substantial holder has acquired a 5.0441% voting power in the company as of May 30, 2025. This development could potentially impact the company’s shareholder dynamics and influence its strategic decisions, reflecting a notable shift in its ownership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Adjusts Distribution Strategy Amid California Changes

Treasury Wine Estates announced that Republic National Distributing Company will cease its operations in California by September 2025. TWE is actively seeking alternative distribution arrangements to maintain its market presence in California, and despite the change, the company expects its F25 EBITS to be approximately $770 million, slightly lower than previously forecasted due to weaker consumer demand in the US.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Ceases Substantial Holding in Treasury Wine Estates

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders of Treasury Wine Estates Limited as of May 28, 2025. This change in holdings may impact the company’s market dynamics and influence investor perceptions, as JPMorgan’s involvement in the company’s securities has shifted, potentially affecting stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase Acquires Substantial Stake in Treasury Wine Estates

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have become substantial holders in Treasury Wine Estates Limited, acquiring a 5.05% voting power in the company. This development indicates a significant investment interest from a major financial institution, potentially impacting Treasury Wine Estates’ market dynamics and signaling confidence in the company’s future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Appoints Sam Fischer as New CEO

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the appointment of Sam Fischer as the new CEO and Managing Director, effective October 27, 2025, succeeding Tim Ford. Fischer, with over 30 years of experience in the alcohol beverages and luxury brands sectors, is expected to lead TWE into its next phase of growth and performance, building on the strong foundations laid by Ford, who has significantly transformed the company during his tenure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TWE) stock is a Buy with a A$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treasury Wine Estates Limited stock, see the AU:TWE Stock Forecast page.

Treasury Wine Estates Updates Substantial Holder Interests

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced a change in the interests of a substantial holder, with State Street Global Advisors and its subsidiaries adjusting their voting power in the company. This update reflects the dynamic nature of shareholder interests and may impact the company’s governance and decision-making processes, potentially influencing its strategic direction and stakeholder relations.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited Announces Cessation of Performance Rights

Treasury Wine Estates Limited announced the cessation of 60,751 performance rights due to unmet conditions, effective January 1, 2025. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting the company’s ongoing adjustments to its securities management.

Treasury Wine Estates Issues Deferred Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the issuance of 63,063 deferred share rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is part of the company’s strategy to align employee interests with corporate goals, potentially enhancing workforce motivation and retention, and strengthening its market position.

Treasury Wine Estates Issues New Performance Rights

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the issuance of 4,538 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until these restrictions are lifted, potentially impacting employee retention and motivation strategies.

Treasury Wine Estates Minimizes Impact of US Tariffs on Operations

Treasury Wine Estates has announced that the newly imposed 10% tariff by the United States on goods imported from Australia and New Zealand is expected to have minimal impact on its operations. This is due to the composition of its Treasury Americas portfolio, where the majority of its earnings are derived from US-produced wines, minimizing the effect of the tariffs on its business performance.

Treasury Wine Estates Appoints Nigel Garrard as Non-Executive Director

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has announced the appointment of Nigel Garrard as an independent, Non-Executive Director to its Board, effective from May 1, 2025. Mr. Garrard brings over 20 years of experience in the food and beverage, and packaging sectors, having held senior roles in companies like Orora Limited and Coca-Cola Amatil. His extensive expertise is expected to enhance the competencies of TWE’s Board, potentially strengthening its strategic direction and industry positioning.