Australian Vintage Ltd (AVG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $42.83M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 248.35K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.14
• Revenue Growth: -1.31%
• EPS Growth: 92.08%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 425
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 329,462,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 182,815
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 248,355
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.10
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 49.81
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.00 ▼(-100.00% Downside)

The overall stock score is primarily impacted by the company's weak financial performance, characterized by negative profitability and increasing leverage. Technical analysis provides some support with positive short-term trends, but valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings and lack of dividends. The absence of earnings call insights or notable corporate events leaves these areas unaddressed.

Australian Vintage Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Australian Vintage Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, produces, packages, markets, and distributes wine in Australia, the United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, North America, and internationally. The company operates through Australia/New Zealand; UK, Europe & Americas; and Asia segments. It offers wine under the Nepenthe, McGuigan Wines, Tempus Two, and Barossa Valley Wine Company brands. The company also owns, operates, manages, and maintains vineyards; and sells concentrate and commercial products. It sells its products through retail, wholesale, and distribution channels. Australian Vintage Ltd was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Cowandilla, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Australian Vintage Ltd generates revenue primarily through the sale of its wine products. The company's revenue model is centered around its extensive portfolio of wine brands, which are sold in multiple markets worldwide. Key revenue streams include domestic sales in Australia and international exports, particularly to the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and Asia. AVG also benefits from strategic partnerships and distribution agreements that enhance its market reach and brand visibility. Additionally, the company may engage in licensing agreements and collaborations with other entities to expand its product offerings and leverage new market opportunities.

Australian Vintage Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Australian Vintage Ltd is facing financial difficulties. The income statement shows significant losses with a negative EBIT and EBITDA. Cash flow is under pressure with negative operating and free cash flows. The balance sheet highlights increased financial risk due to rising debt levels. Overall, the company is struggling with profitability and cash generation.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a concerning decline in performance. Revenue has been relatively flat over the years, with a slight increase in the latest period. However, profitability has severely decreased, as indicated by a negative EBIT and EBITDA in the latest year. The gross profit margin has decreased significantly from 28.8% to 10.6% year-over-year, and the net profit margin has turned negative, highlighting substantial losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate level of risk with an increasing debt-to-equity ratio, now at approximately 0.64. The company's equity ratio has decreased slightly, indicating more reliance on debt. However, the company maintains a relatively stable asset base, though stockholders' equity has decreased over the years.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows in the most recent period. This marks a deterioration from previous years where free cash flow, although fluctuating, was positive. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, showing the inability to generate cash from operations to cover reported losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	257.18M	257.19M	260.59M	258.56M	260.10M	273.96M
Gross Profit	69.36M	69.36M	27.69M	75.11M	85.35M	86.20M
EBITDA	3.20M	3.20M	-62.28M	12.38M	35.41M	38.33M
Net Income	-9.56M	-9.56M	-93.03M	4.01M	17.33M	19.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	431.35M	431.35M	415.43M	498.04M	515.60M	493.53M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.88M	8.88M	6.02M	6.90M	2.55M	3.65M
Total Debt	142.05M	142.05M	137.27M	128.89M	125.37M	98.86M
Total Liabilities	240.34M	240.34M	201.83M	206.92M	215.75M	180.85M
Stockholders Equity	191.01M	191.01M	213.60M	291.12M	299.85M	312.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-14.65M	-14.65M	-18.84M	-23.48M	4.00M	38.61M
Operating Cash Flow	-7.66M	-7.66M	-10.96M	-12.72M	15.35M	45.03M
Investing Cash Flow	-811.00K	-811.00K	-2.74M	57.46M	-9.70M	-6.40M
Financing Cash Flow	11.33M	11.33M	12.82M	-40.39M	-6.75M	-42.63M

Australian Vintage Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 0.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AVG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.14, below the 50-day MA of 0.12, and above the 200-day MA of 0.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:AVG.

Australian Vintage Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EDU	72 Outperform	AU$111.41M	12.89	60.13%	1.35%	120.57%	―
TWE	70 Outperform	$5.66B	12.96	9.13%	6.75%	6.47%	281.30%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
EDV	60 Neutral	AU$6.41B	15.05	11.20%	5.40%	-2.04%	-16.79%
AVG	51 Neutral	$42.83M	―	-4.54%	―	-1.31%	92.08%
LRK	46 Neutral	AU$77.83M	―	-10.39%	―	2.62%	-85.79%

Australian Vintage Ltd Corporate Events

Australian Vintage Ltd Accelerates Inventory Reduction Strategy with Lease Exit

Australian Vintage Ltd has announced an accelerated strategy to reduce its inventory and enhance free cash flow for the fiscal year 2026 and beyond. This involves exiting a long-term lease with Fresh Country Farms for the Millewa Vineyard, which predominantly produces red varietals that exceed current demand. The lease exit is expected to yield a net cash flow benefit of over $8 million over the remaining lease term, supporting the company’s flexible grape sourcing strategy and inventory reduction goals.

Director Increases Stake in Australian Vintage Ltd

Australian Vintage Ltd has announced a change in the interest of its director, James Williamson, who has acquired an additional 3,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares through an on-market trade. This acquisition increases Williamson’s total holdings to 60,959,616 shares, reflecting a significant personal investment in the company. The transaction, valued at $213,000, underscores the director’s confidence in the company’s future prospects and may positively influence stakeholder perception regarding the company’s stability and growth potential.

Australian Vintage Ltd Sees Increase in Substantial Holder’s Voting Power

Australian Vintage Limited, a company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, has seen a change in the interests of a substantial holder, Wentworth Williamson Management Pty Ltd. The substantial holder’s voting power increased from 16.26% to 17.48% following an on-market purchase of additional shares. This change in voting power could potentially impact the company’s governance and decision-making processes, influencing its strategic direction and potentially affecting shareholder value.

Australian Vintage Ltd Updates Securities Trading Policy

Australian Vintage Ltd has updated its Securities Trading Policy in line with ASX Listing Rule 12.10, reflecting the company’s commitment to corporate governance and business ethics. This policy aims to maintain public confidence in the company’s reputation and ensure compliance with insider trading laws, impacting directors, employees, and senior management.

Australian Vintage Ltd Director Increases Shareholding

Australian Vintage Ltd has announced a change in the director’s interests, specifically regarding James Williamson. Mr. Williamson, through indirect interests, acquired over 4 million fully paid ordinary shares, increasing his total holdings to nearly 58 million shares. This transaction, valued at over $310,000, was conducted through an on-market trade. The change in shareholding reflects a significant increase in Mr. Williamson’s investment in the company, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance and impacting stakeholders’ perceptions.

Australian Vintage Ltd Issues 500,000 New Securities

Australian Vintage Ltd has announced the issuance of 500,000 ordinary fully paid securities, effective from May 14, 2025. This move indicates a strategic decision to potentially strengthen its financial position and enhance shareholder value, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to maintain a competitive edge in the wine industry.

Australian Vintage Ltd’s Strategic Turnaround and Expansion Plans for FY2026

Australian Vintage Ltd is undergoing a strategic turnaround to address declining sales and negative cash flows, with FY2026 expected to be transformational. The company is launching the Poco Vino™ brand in the UK and Australia, which has exceeded pre-sales expectations, and expanding the Lemsecco™ brand, anticipating significant sales contributions. Additionally, the acquisition of the Madfish brand and distribution rights for Howard Park will enhance their portfolio in the UK and other regions. Despite a projected 3% decline in FY2025 sales, the company is focused on achieving mid-single-digit sales growth in FY2026, alongside improved inventory management and cash flow.

Australian Vintage Ltd Announces Cessation of Securities

Australian Vintage Ltd announced the cessation of 5,000,000 securities due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not or could not be satisfied. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.