Australian Vintage Ltd (AVG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$25.70M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 933.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: -2.72%
• EPS Growth: -1624.66%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 425
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 329,462,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 497,907
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 933,811
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 40 Underperform
• Price Target: AU$0.00 ▼(-100.00%Downside)

The overall stock score of 40 reflects significant financial and technical challenges. The company is facing declining profitability and cash flow issues, which are exacerbated by a negative P/E ratio and lack of dividends. Additionally, bearish technical indicators suggest further downside risk.

Australian Vintage Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Australian Vintage Ltd (AVG) is a leading Australian wine company engaged in the production, marketing, and distribution of wine products. The company operates across various sectors, including viticulture, wine production, and brand marketing. AVG's core products consist of a diverse range of wines, including popular brands such as McGuigan, Tempus Two, and Nepenthe, which are distributed both domestically and internationally.

How the Company Makes Money

Australian Vintage Ltd generates revenue primarily through the sale of its wine products. The company's revenue model is centered around its extensive portfolio of wine brands, which are sold in multiple markets worldwide. Key revenue streams include domestic sales in Australia and international exports, particularly to the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and Asia. AVG also benefits from strategic partnerships and distribution agreements that enhance its market reach and brand visibility. Additionally, the company may engage in licensing agreements and collaborations with other entities to expand its product offerings and leverage new market opportunities.

Australian Vintage Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Australian Vintage Ltd is experiencing financial difficulties, with declining profitability and cash flow challenges. The income statement reveals significant losses, and the cash flow situation indicates an inability to generate sufficient cash from operations. The balance sheet reflects increasing reliance on debt, posing financial risk.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a concerning decline in performance. Revenue has been relatively flat over the years, with a slight increase in the latest period. However, profitability has severely decreased, as indicated by a negative EBIT and EBITDA in the latest year. The gross profit margin has decreased significantly from 28.8% to 10.6% year-over-year, and the net profit margin has turned negative, highlighting substantial losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate level of risk with an increasing debt-to-equity ratio, now at approximately 0.64. The company's equity ratio has decreased slightly, indicating more reliance on debt. However, the company maintains a relatively stable asset base, though stockholders' equity has decreased over the years.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows in the most recent period. This marks a deterioration from previous years where free cash flow, although fluctuating, was positive. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, showing the inability to generate cash from operations to cover reported losses.

Breakdown	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	260.59M	258.56M	260.10M	273.96M	267.14M
Gross Profit	27.69M	62.66M	83.92M	86.20M	74.40M
EBITDA	-62.28M	12.38M	35.41M	38.33M	26.72M
Net Income	-93.03M	4.01M	17.33M	19.60M	10.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	415.43M	498.04M	515.60M	493.53M	509.05M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.02M	6.90M	2.55M	3.65M	7.66M
Total Debt	137.27M	128.89M	125.37M	98.86M	132.41M
Total Liabilities	201.83M	206.92M	215.75M	180.85M	205.64M
Stockholders Equity	213.60M	291.12M	299.85M	312.68M	303.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-18.84M	-23.48M	4.00M	38.61M	12.04M
Operating Cash Flow	-10.96M	-12.72M	15.35M	45.03M	22.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.74M	57.46M	-9.70M	-6.40M	-10.15M
Financing Cash Flow	12.82M	-40.39M	-6.75M	-42.63M	-12.51M

Australian Vintage Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.08
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AVG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.08, below the 50-day MA of 0.08, and below the 200-day MA of 0.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AVG.

Australian Vintage Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EDV	71 Outperform	AU$7.41B	16.15	11.71%	6.04%	1.78%	-11.07%
EDU	64 Neutral	AU$54.95M	22.96	22.69%	―	98.84%	―
TWE	62 Neutral	AU$6.51B	42.50	3.25%	4.99%	22.94%	-40.23%
LRK	51 Neutral	AU$86.89M	―	-4.70%	―	-7.45%	-0.15%
Sector *	50 Neutral	AU$2.20B	-0.61	-14.39%	12.21%	7.38%	-60.19%
AVG	40 Underperform	AU$25.70M	―	-38.39%	―	-2.72%	-1624.66%

Australian Vintage Ltd Corporate Events

Australian Vintage Ltd Accelerates Inventory Reduction Strategy with Lease Exit

Australian Vintage Ltd has announced an accelerated strategy to reduce its inventory and enhance free cash flow for the fiscal year 2026 and beyond. This involves exiting a long-term lease with Fresh Country Farms for the Millewa Vineyard, which predominantly produces red varietals that exceed current demand. The lease exit is expected to yield a net cash flow benefit of over $8 million over the remaining lease term, supporting the company’s flexible grape sourcing strategy and inventory reduction goals.

Director Increases Stake in Australian Vintage Ltd

Australian Vintage Ltd has announced a change in the interest of its director, James Williamson, who has acquired an additional 3,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares through an on-market trade. This acquisition increases Williamson’s total holdings to 60,959,616 shares, reflecting a significant personal investment in the company. The transaction, valued at $213,000, underscores the director’s confidence in the company’s future prospects and may positively influence stakeholder perception regarding the company’s stability and growth potential.

Australian Vintage Ltd Sees Increase in Substantial Holder’s Voting Power

Australian Vintage Limited, a company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, has seen a change in the interests of a substantial holder, Wentworth Williamson Management Pty Ltd. The substantial holder’s voting power increased from 16.26% to 17.48% following an on-market purchase of additional shares. This change in voting power could potentially impact the company’s governance and decision-making processes, influencing its strategic direction and potentially affecting shareholder value.

Australian Vintage Ltd Updates Securities Trading Policy

Australian Vintage Ltd has updated its Securities Trading Policy in line with ASX Listing Rule 12.10, reflecting the company’s commitment to corporate governance and business ethics. This policy aims to maintain public confidence in the company’s reputation and ensure compliance with insider trading laws, impacting directors, employees, and senior management.

Australian Vintage Ltd Director Increases Shareholding

Australian Vintage Ltd has announced a change in the director’s interests, specifically regarding James Williamson. Mr. Williamson, through indirect interests, acquired over 4 million fully paid ordinary shares, increasing his total holdings to nearly 58 million shares. This transaction, valued at over $310,000, was conducted through an on-market trade. The change in shareholding reflects a significant increase in Mr. Williamson’s investment in the company, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance and impacting stakeholders’ perceptions.

Australian Vintage Ltd Issues 500,000 New Securities

Australian Vintage Ltd has announced the issuance of 500,000 ordinary fully paid securities, effective from May 14, 2025. This move indicates a strategic decision to potentially strengthen its financial position and enhance shareholder value, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to maintain a competitive edge in the wine industry.

Australian Vintage Ltd’s Strategic Turnaround and Expansion Plans for FY2026

Australian Vintage Ltd is undergoing a strategic turnaround to address declining sales and negative cash flows, with FY2026 expected to be transformational. The company is launching the Poco Vino™ brand in the UK and Australia, which has exceeded pre-sales expectations, and expanding the Lemsecco™ brand, anticipating significant sales contributions. Additionally, the acquisition of the Madfish brand and distribution rights for Howard Park will enhance their portfolio in the UK and other regions. Despite a projected 3% decline in FY2025 sales, the company is focused on achieving mid-single-digit sales growth in FY2026, alongside improved inventory management and cash flow.

Australian Vintage Ltd Announces Cessation of Securities

Australian Vintage Ltd announced the cessation of 5,000,000 securities due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not or could not be satisfied. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Australian Vintage Ltd Appoints New CEO to Drive Growth Strategy

Australian Vintage Ltd has announced the appointment of Tom Dusseldorp as the new CEO, succeeding Craig Garvin who has been instrumental in stabilizing the company after a challenging 2024. Under Garvin’s leadership, the company transitioned from a family business to a major industry player, setting a clear direction for future growth. Dusseldorp, who has been with the company since 2022 and has extensive experience in the industry, aims to continue this trajectory by focusing on sustainable cash flow and targeted growth through innovation and brand investment. This leadership change is seen as a strategic move to enhance the company’s market positioning and shareholder value.