Australian Vintage Ltd (AVG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$30.97M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 240.27K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.09
• Revenue Growth: -1.31%
• EPS Growth: 92.08%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 425
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): -0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 329,462,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 324,328
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 240,266
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.10
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.09 ▼(-16.36% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance (negative profitability and negative operating/free cash flow) and a clearly bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is not a strong offset because the negative P/E reflects ongoing losses and there is no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Diversified revenue streams

AVG’s mix of branded wine sales, commercial/bulk and private-label supply, and contract winemaking creates durable revenue diversification. Over months this mix cushions margin volatility from any single channel, supports volume flexibility, and preserves routes to market in domestic and export segments.

Vertical integration across production

Control of vineyard sourcing, winemaking, packaging and distribution gives AVG structural advantages in quality control, cost management and capacity utilization. Owning these functions supports scalable contract work and protects margins versus competitors reliant on third‑party supply.

Improving free cash flow trend

Although FCF remains negative, recent improvement indicates the business can begin converting operational recovery into cash. Sustained FCF improvement would reduce reliance on external funding, enable deleveraging and support reinvestment or contract capacity maintenance over the next several months.

Negative Factors

Negative profitability margins

Persistently negative EBIT and net margins show the core wine business is not yet generating operating profits. Over 2–6 months this limits retained earnings for reinvestment, hampers ability to rebuild reserves, and constrains structural margin recovery absent pricing or cost changes.

Negative operating cash flow

Ongoing negative operating cash flow signals structural cash generation weakness. In the medium term this raises risk around funding working capital and capital expenditure, increasing dependence on external financing and elevating vulnerability to input cost swings and seasonal demand shifts.

Rising leverage and weak returns

An increasing debt-to-equity ratio combined with negative ROE reflects higher financial leverage without commensurate shareholder returns. Structurally, higher leverage raises interest and refinancing risk and reduces strategic flexibility if earnings and cash flows don’t recover.

Australian Vintage Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Australian Vintage Ltd (AVG) is a prominent Australian wine producer known for its diverse portfolio of brands and products that cater to both domestic and international markets. Established in 1992, the company operates across various sectors of the wine industry, including grape growing, wine production, and distribution. AVG’s core products include a range of premium wines, ciders, and ready-to-drink beverages, with a strong emphasis on quality and innovation. The company is dedicated to sustainability and the promotion of Australian wine heritage, contributing to its recognition in the global wine market.

How the Company Makes Money

Australian Vintage Ltd generates revenue primarily through the sale of its wine and beverage products across multiple channels, including wholesale, retail, and export markets. Key revenue streams include direct sales through its own brands, such as McGuigan Wines, Tempus Two, and Nepenthe, as well as partnerships with distributors and retailers both in Australia and internationally. The company benefits from strategic alliances with various retailers and export partners, enhancing its market reach. Additionally, AVG capitalizes on seasonal demand and marketing campaigns to drive sales, alongside leveraging its commitment to quality and sustainability to attract consumers willing to pay premium prices for its products.

Australian Vintage Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials remain under pressure: revenue has been inconsistent, profitability margins (net profit and EBIT) are negative, and operating/free cash flow are negative. Rising leverage adds risk, despite some improvement in free cash flow.

Income Statement

Australian Vintage Ltd has shown inconsistent revenue growth with a slight increase in the most recent year. However, profitability metrics such as net profit margin and EBIT margin have been negative, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. The gross profit margin has decreased over time, reflecting potential cost pressures or pricing challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased, indicating higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. Return on equity has been negative recently, reflecting the company's struggle to generate returns for shareholders. However, the equity ratio remains relatively stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been negative, indicating potential liquidity issues. Free cash flow has also been negative, though it has shown some improvement. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high, suggesting that the company is generating cash relative to its net losses, but overall cash flow performance remains weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	255.05M	257.19M	260.59M	258.56M	260.10M	273.96M
Gross Profit	65.65M	69.36M	27.69M	75.11M	85.35M	86.20M
EBITDA	-3.15M	3.20M	-62.28M	12.77M	35.41M	38.33M
Net Income	-31.02M	-9.56M	-93.03M	4.01M	17.33M	19.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	417.56M	431.35M	415.43M	498.04M	515.60M	493.53M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	758.00K	8.88M	6.02M	6.90M	2.55M	3.65M
Total Debt	217.83M	142.05M	137.27M	128.89M	125.37M	98.86M
Total Liabilities	240.19M	240.34M	201.83M	206.92M	215.75M	180.85M
Stockholders Equity	177.37M	191.01M	213.60M	291.12M	299.85M	312.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-31.94M	-14.65M	-18.84M	-23.48M	4.00M	38.61M
Operating Cash Flow	-22.12M	-7.66M	-10.96M	-12.72M	15.35M	45.03M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.60M	-811.00K	-2.74M	57.46M	-9.70M	-6.40M
Financing Cash Flow	21.79M	11.33M	12.82M	-40.39M	-6.75M	-42.63M

Australian Vintage Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AVG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.09, above the 50-day MA of 0.10, and above the 200-day MA of 0.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AVG.

Australian Vintage Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EDU	73 Outperform	AU$79.34M	8.09	60.13%	1.17%	120.57%	―
TWE	70 Outperform	AU$3.64B	-1.63	9.13%	7.42%	6.47%	281.30%
EDV	70 Outperform	AU$7.15B	16.86	11.20%	5.12%	-2.04%	-16.79%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
LRK	54 Neutral	AU$77.02M	-18.17	-10.39%	―	2.62%	-85.79%
AVG	45 Neutral	AU$30.97M	-0.41	-4.54%	―	-1.31%	92.08%

Australian Vintage Ltd Corporate Events

Australian Vintage director lifts indirect shareholding via on-market purchase

Australian Vintage Limited has disclosed a change in director James Williamson’s indirect interests in the company’s shares, as required under ASX listing rules. Williamson’s interests are held through Sandhurst Trustees Ltd and the Williamson Super Fund, indicating ongoing portfolio management by the director.

Over the period from 23 to 27 February 2026, Williamson acquired 2,250,000 additional fully paid ordinary shares via on-market trades, for a total consideration of $204,075.12. Following these transactions, his indirect holding through Sandhurst Trustees increased to 63,709,616 shares, while his super fund holding remained unchanged, signalling a modest vote of confidence in the company’s stock by a key board member.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVG) stock is a Hold with a A$0.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Vintage Ltd stock, see the AU:AVG Stock Forecast page.

Australian Vintage Director Increases Indirect Shareholding

Australian Vintage Limited has disclosed a change in director James Williamson’s indirect interests in the company’s shares. The notice, lodged with the ASX, reflects regulatory requirements to keep the market informed of changes in directors’ holdings.

Through entities associated with him, Williamson acquired an additional 500,000 fully paid ordinary shares via an on-market trade on 20 February 2026 for $40,000. Following the transaction, his indirect holding increased to 61,459,616 shares in one account and remained at 401,642 shares in another, signalling a modest uplift in his financial exposure to the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AVG) stock is a Hold with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Vintage Ltd stock, see the AU:AVG Stock Forecast page.