Australian Vintage Ltd (AVG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$31.63M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 240.27K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.10
• Revenue Growth: -1.31%
• EPS Growth: 92.08%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 425
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 329,462,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 324,328
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 240,266
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.10
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$401.53M

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.09 ▼(-15.45% Downside)

Australian Vintage Ltd is facing significant financial challenges, with negative profitability and increasing leverage. The technical indicators are bearish, and the valuation metrics are unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield. These factors contribute to a low overall stock score, indicating potential risks for investors.

Positive Factors

Diversified Revenue Streams

Multiple revenue streams—branded retail, commercial/bulk supply, and contract winemaking—provide structural diversification. This mix stabilizes cash flow and facility utilisation, lets AVG capture higher-margin branded sales while smoothing volumes via commercial contracts over months.

Vertical Integration & Production Capability

Vertical integration across vineyard sourcing, winemaking, packaging and distribution gives AVG control over inputs, quality and logistics. That reduces exposure to supply shocks, supports margin management and enables contract services and export scale over a sustained period.

Improving Free Cash Flow Trend

Reported improvement in free cash flow and a high free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio suggest the company is beginning to convert results into cash despite losses. If sustained, this supports liquidity, operational funding and potential deleveraging over the next several months.

Negative Factors

Rising Leverage

Increasing debt-to-equity and a recent negative ROE indicate rising leverage and weak capital returns. Higher leverage raises interest and refinancing risk, limits financial flexibility and amplifies downside if margins do not recover within the 2–6 month horizon.

Negative Operating and Free Cash Flow

Persistent negative operating cash flow and free cash flow mean the core business currently consumes cash. This structural cash deficit forces dependence on external funding, constrains reinvestment in brands or capacity, and elevates short-to-medium term liquidity risk.

Weak Profitability and Margin Pressure

Inconsistent revenue growth alongside declining gross margins and negative EBIT/net margins point to structural margin pressure from costs or pricing. Sustained profitability will require either pricing power, lower input costs, or efficiency gains—none are yet evident in the near term.

Australian Vintage Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Australian Vintage Ltd (AVG) is a prominent Australian wine producer known for its diverse portfolio of brands and products that cater to both domestic and international markets. Established in 1992, the company operates across various sectors of the wine industry, including grape growing, wine production, and distribution. AVG’s core products include a range of premium wines, ciders, and ready-to-drink beverages, with a strong emphasis on quality and innovation. The company is dedicated to sustainability and the promotion of Australian wine heritage, contributing to its recognition in the global wine market.

How the Company Makes Money

Australian Vintage Ltd generates revenue primarily through the sale of its wine and beverage products across multiple channels, including wholesale, retail, and export markets. Key revenue streams include direct sales through its own brands, such as McGuigan Wines, Tempus Two, and Nepenthe, as well as partnerships with distributors and retailers both in Australia and internationally. The company benefits from strategic alliances with various retailers and export partners, enhancing its market reach. Additionally, AVG capitalizes on seasonal demand and marketing campaigns to drive sales, alongside leveraging its commitment to quality and sustainability to attract consumers willing to pay premium prices for its products.

Australian Vintage Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Australian Vintage Ltd faces challenges across its financial statements, with inconsistent revenue growth, negative profitability margins, and increasing leverage. While there are some improvements in free cash flow, the overall financial health of the company is under pressure, requiring strategic adjustments to improve profitability and cash flow stability.

Income Statement

Australian Vintage Ltd has shown inconsistent revenue growth with a slight increase in the most recent year. However, profitability metrics such as net profit margin and EBIT margin have been negative, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. The gross profit margin has decreased over time, reflecting potential cost pressures or pricing challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased, indicating higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. Return on equity has been negative recently, reflecting the company's struggle to generate returns for shareholders. However, the equity ratio remains relatively stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been negative, indicating potential liquidity issues. Free cash flow has also been negative, though it has shown some improvement. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high, suggesting that the company is generating cash relative to its net losses, but overall cash flow performance remains weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	257.18M	257.19M	260.59M	258.56M	260.10M	273.96M
Gross Profit	69.36M	69.36M	27.69M	75.11M	85.35M	86.20M
EBITDA	3.20M	3.20M	-62.28M	12.77M	35.41M	38.33M
Net Income	-9.56M	-9.56M	-93.03M	4.01M	17.33M	19.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	431.35M	431.35M	415.43M	498.04M	515.60M	493.53M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.88M	8.88M	6.02M	6.90M	2.55M	3.65M
Total Debt	142.05M	142.05M	137.27M	128.89M	125.37M	98.86M
Total Liabilities	240.34M	240.34M	201.83M	206.92M	215.75M	180.85M
Stockholders Equity	191.01M	191.01M	213.60M	291.12M	299.85M	312.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-14.65M	-14.65M	-18.84M	-23.48M	4.00M	38.61M
Operating Cash Flow	-7.66M	-7.66M	-10.96M	-12.72M	15.35M	45.03M
Investing Cash Flow	-811.00K	-811.00K	-2.74M	57.46M	-9.70M	-6.40M
Financing Cash Flow	11.33M	11.33M	12.82M	-40.39M	-6.75M	-42.63M

Australian Vintage Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AVG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.10, above the 50-day MA of 0.10, and above the 200-day MA of 0.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AVG.

Australian Vintage Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TWE	70 Outperform	$4.33B	9.96	9.13%	7.42%	6.47%	281.30%
EDU	64 Neutral	AU$112.99M	13.68	60.13%	1.17%	120.57%	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
EDV	60 Neutral	AU$6.64B	15.55	11.20%	5.12%	-2.04%	-16.79%
AVG	44 Neutral	AU$31.63M	-3.34	-4.54%	―	-1.31%	92.08%
LRK	43 Neutral	AU$65.25M	-5.69	-10.39%	―	2.62%	-85.79%

Australian Vintage Ltd Corporate Events

Australian Vintage Ltd Updates AGM Address with Financial Correction

Australian Vintage Ltd has issued a correction to the CEO’s address at its Annual General Meeting, indicating that net debt for the half year will be approximately $35 million higher than previously stated. This update aligns the CEO’s address with the presentation materials, ensuring consistency in communication to stakeholders.

Australian Vintage Ltd Reports AGM Results and Financial Corrections

Australian Vintage Ltd announced the results of its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM), highlighting the approval of key resolutions, including the re-election of Michael Byrne as a non-executive director. The company also addressed errors in its FY25 Director’s Report and Remuneration Report, specifically regarding NPATS and EPS figures, which were corrected to ensure accurate financial reporting.

Australian Vintage Ltd Updates Shareholders at AGM

Australian Vintage Ltd held its Annual General Meeting to update shareholders on its financial performance and key strategies. The meeting, led by Chairman James Williamson and CEO Tom Dusseldorp, aimed to provide insights into the company’s operations and future plans, potentially impacting its industry positioning and stakeholder interests.