Endeavour Group Ltd (AU:EDV)
ASX:EDV
Want to see AU:EDV full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Endeavour Group Ltd
(Sydney:EDV)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
AU$3.50
▲(7.36% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:03/04/26
The score is driven mainly by stable underlying profitability and strong operating cash generation, supported by positive technical trend signals. It is tempered by weak/negative top-line growth, pressure on net margin and free cash flow, and earnings-call risks centered on retail margin compression and elevated reinvestment needs from higher FY26 capex.
Positive Factors
Strong operating cash generation
Sustained high operating cash conversion (165% cash realization) provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and reinvestment without immediate reliance on markets. This cash cushion improves resilience through cycles and supports the elevated FY26 investment program while limiting refinancing strain.
Negative Factors
Retail margin compression
Sustained margin pressure from deliberate price investment and elevated promotions reduces the core retail profit pool. If promotional intensity and competitive pricing persist, retail margins and absolute EBIT could remain depressed, weakening group profitability and cash flow sustainability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating cash generation
Sustained high operating cash conversion (165% cash realization) provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and reinvestment without immediate reliance on markets. This cash cushion improves resilience through cycles and supports the elevated FY26 investment program while limiting refinancing strain.
Read all positive factors
Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$6.16B
Dividend Yield5.12%
Average Volume (3M)2.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.8
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth-1.17%
EPS Growth-18.45%
CountryAU
Employees30,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.21
Shares Outstanding1,795,725,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,547,397
30 Day Avg. Volume2,908,436
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.97
Price to Book (P/B)1.87
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio8.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.14Price Target Upside-3.65% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$12.19B
Endeavour Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Endeavour Group Limited, an Australian entity, operates across the retail drinks and hospitality sectors. The company's business model is structured around its Retail, Hotels, and Other segments. It is engaged in the production and sale of beverag...
How the Company Makes Money
Endeavour Group makes money primarily through (1) packaged liquor retail sales and (2) earnings from hotel operations.
1) Packaged liquor retail (Retail segment):
- Product sales revenue: The largest driver is revenue from selling alcoholic bever...
Endeavour Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call illustrated a mixed but constructive picture: Hotels momentum, strong cash generation, meaningful cost program delivery and clear retail re-pricing/market-share gains are positive. Offsetting these are notable retail margin compression, an 11.6% decline in Retail EBIT, one-off charges (~$45m), lower free cash flow and elevated reinvestment needs (higher CapEx). Management presented a decisive strategy reset and concrete early wins but acknowledged near-term pressure from competition and macro factors.Positive Updates
Underlying EBIT Delivered at Upper End of Guidance
Group delivered underlying EBIT of $563 million (upper end of January trading update range) demonstrating execution against guidance despite a challenging market.
Negative Updates
Retail Margin Compression and Earnings Decline
Retail gross profit margin declined 84 basis points to 23.9% reflecting price investment and elevated market promotions; Retail underlying EBIT declined 11.6% to $327 million, which materially weighed on group underlying earnings (group underlying EBIT declined ~5.4% year-on-year).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Underlying EBIT Delivered at Upper End of Guidance
Group delivered underlying EBIT of $563 million (upper end of January trading update range) demonstrating execution against guidance despite a challenging market.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated FY26 guidance with total Group capital expenditure revised up to $460–500 million to support an accelerated hotels program (21 renewals completed in H1, ~14 planned in H2 to total ~35 for the year) and gaming investment (over 800 new EGMs installed in H1 with at least ~800 more expected in H2), while One Endeavour program OpEx for FY26 is expected at the lower end of its $50–60m range and One Endeavour CapEx below its $40–50m range, with the ERP build on track for completion in H1 FY28 (≈18 months). Finance costs for FY26 are expected to be broadly in line with FY25; the Group finished the half with $1.0bn of undrawn facilities, net debt down $34m versus H1 FY25 and an underlying leverage ratio of 3.3x (management expects net debt and leverage to be higher at year‑end seasonally), and delivered a H1 cash realization ratio of 165% with net operating cash flow of $997m (free cash flow down $153m). The Board declared a fully franked interim dividend of $0.108 per share (a 70% payout ratio of underlying NPAT) and noted a H1 pretax significant item of $45m (including a $40m provision for the planned MLDC closure).Endeavour Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.12B | 12.06B | 12.31B | 11.88B | 11.60B | 11.60B |
| Gross Profit | 4.23B | 4.23B | 4.25B | 4.02B | 3.63B | 3.67B |
| EBITDA | 1.46B | 1.42B | 1.47B | 1.42B | 1.28B | 1.23B |
| Net Income | 375.00M | 426.00M | 512.00M | 529.00M | 495.00M | 445.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.95B | 11.73B | 11.78B | 11.67B | 10.85B | 10.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 344.00M | 318.00M | 293.00M | 290.00M | 294.00M | 437.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.35B | 5.82B | 6.07B | 6.09B | 5.32B | 5.49B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.96B | 7.90B | 8.01B | 7.96B | 7.29B | 7.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.99B | 3.83B | 3.77B | 3.71B | 3.56B | 3.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 650.00M | 816.00M | 791.00M | 361.00M | 668.00M | 835.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.11B | 1.15B | 1.21B | 769.00M | 953.00M | 1.11B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -429.00M | -299.00M | -441.00M | -519.00M | -275.00M | -318.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -705.00M | -826.00M | -766.00M | -254.00M | -821.00M | -734.00M |
Endeavour Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
3.26
Price Trends
3.19
Positive
3.41
Positive
3.49
Negative
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
71.56
Negative
96.10
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:EDV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.07, above the 50-day MA of 3.19, and below the 200-day MA of 3.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.56 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:EDV.
Endeavour Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$1.81B | 121.92 | 3.45% | 1.55% | -2.41% | 104.12% | |
70 Outperform | AU$6.16B | 15.75 | 9.59% | 5.12% | -1.17% | -18.45% | |
63 Neutral | AU$3.84B | -9.05 | -10.03% | 7.42% | -10.96% | -383.84% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
54 Neutral | AU$95.04M | -9.19 | -8.39% | ― | 9.59% | -37.80% | |
43 Neutral | AU$20.43M | -0.66 | -16.84% | ― | 1.80% | 75.09% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:EDV
Endeavour Group Ltd
3.43
-0.40
-10.56%
AU:AVG
Australian Vintage Ltd
0.06
-0.02
-26.19%
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
4.76
-3.10
-39.47%
AU:CBO
Cobram Estate Olives Ltd.
3.77
1.73
84.80%
AU:LRK
Lark Distilling Co. Ltd.
0.89
0.15
19.59%
Endeavour Group Ltd Corporate Events
Endeavour Group Issues 514,319 New Shares on Convertible Exercise
Jun 9, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has notified the Australian Securities Exchange of the issue of 514,319 ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities, with an issue date of J...
Endeavour Group Issues New Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Scheme
Jun 9, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has notified the market of the issue of 8,710 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme. The new share rights, recorded under the ASX security code EDVAB and issued on 2 June 2026, will not be quoted on the ...
Endeavour Group Updates Director Joanne Pollard’s Equity Holdings
Jun 4, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has disclosed a change in the security holdings of non-executive director Joanne Elizabeth Pollard, reflecting movements under the company’s Non-executive Director Equity Plan. The update details her direct and indire...
Endeavour Group Boosts Director’s Equity Stake With New Share Rights Grant
Jun 4, 2026
Endeavour Group has disclosed a change in the security holdings of non-executive director Joanne Elizabeth Pollard, who has received a grant of 8,710 non-executive director share rights under the company’s equity plan. The new rights, acquir...
Endeavour director Penelope Winn lifts indirect shareholding via on-market purchase
Jun 3, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has disclosed a change in director Penelope Ann Winn’s relevant interests in the company’s securities, as required under ASX listing rules. Winn’s interest is held indirectly through Winn Nominees Pty Ltd,...
Endeavour Group Director Ihlein Lifts Stake With On‑Market Share Purchase
Jun 3, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has disclosed a change in director Michael Francis Ihlein’s interests, reporting that he has acquired 88,000 ordinary shares in the company through an on-market transaction. The shares are held indirectly via Krol Pty...
Endeavour Group Targets Growth With Cost Cuts, Hotel Investment and Asset Shake-Up
May 26, 2026
Endeavour Group has unveiled a refreshed growth strategy following a board-led review, centring on resetting its multi-brand retail approach, unlocking growth in its hotels business and simplifying operations to lift efficiency and returns. The pl...
Endeavour Group lifts sales, bulks up inventory and targets $100m cost savings amid Middle East pressures
May 3, 2026
Endeavour Group reported modest sales growth in the third quarter of FY26, with Retail up 2.9% and Hotels up 3.7%, translating to half-year-to-date gains of 0.7% and 3.7% respectively. Retail continued to gain market share in a subdued consumer en...
Endeavour Group Reports Lapse of 687,909 Share and Performance Rights
Apr 16, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has reported the lapse of a total of 687,909 equity incentives, comprising 233,990 share rights and 453,919 performance rights, after the conditions attached to these awards were not met or became incapable of being satisfi...
Endeavour Group Issues New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Apr 16, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has notified the ASX of the issue of 54,062 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion of unquoted options or other unquoted convertible securities. The new shares, dated 31 March 2026, modestly increase the compan...
Endeavour Group Issues Over 1.8 Million Unquoted Rights Under Staff Incentive Schemes
Mar 23, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has notified the market of the issue of new unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive schemes, comprising 835,687 share rights and 1,030,270 performance rights. The securities, which are not intended to be quo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.