Endeavour Group Ltd (AU:EDV)
ASX:EDV
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Endeavour Group Ltd
(Sydney:EDV)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
AU$4.50
▲(32.35% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/04/26
The score is driven mainly by stable underlying profitability and strong operating cash generation, supported by positive technical trend signals. It is tempered by weak/negative top-line growth, pressure on net margin and free cash flow, and earnings-call risks centered on retail margin compression and elevated reinvestment needs from higher FY26 capex.
Positive Factors
Strong operating cash generation
Sustained high operating cash flow and a 165% cash realization ratio indicate durable earnings quality and excellent cash conversion. This supports ongoing reinvestment, dividend capacity and debt servicing, reducing financing risk and enabling strategic capex without immediate equity funding.
Negative Factors
Retail margin compression
Sustained margin compression in the core retail arm materially reduces group profitability because retail is the largest revenue pool. If competitive promotions and price investment persist, structural margin erosion could require ongoing price resets or cost cuts, constraining long‑term earnings power.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating cash generation
Sustained high operating cash flow and a 165% cash realization ratio indicate durable earnings quality and excellent cash conversion. This supports ongoing reinvestment, dividend capacity and debt servicing, reducing financing risk and enabling strategic capex without immediate equity funding.
Read all positive factors
Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$6.07B
Dividend Yield5.12%
Average Volume (3M)2.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.7
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth-2.04%
EPS Growth-16.79%
CountryAU
Employees30,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding1,795,725,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,547,397
30 Day Avg. Volume2,908,436
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.98
Price to Book (P/B)1.87
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio8.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.61Price Target Upside6.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$12.22B
Endeavour Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Endeavour Group Limited engages in the retail drinks and hospitality businesses in Australia. It operates through Retail, Hotels, and Other segments. The company manufactures and sells drinks; and provides hotels-related goods and services, includ...
How the Company Makes Money
Endeavour Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of alcoholic beverages in its retail locations and hospitality venues. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales from its liquor retail stores, which offer a wide range of p...
Endeavour Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call illustrated a mixed but constructive picture: Hotels momentum, strong cash generation, meaningful cost program delivery and clear retail re-pricing/market-share gains are positive. Offsetting these are notable retail margin compression, an 11.6% decline in Retail EBIT, one-off charges (~$45m), lower free cash flow and elevated reinvestment needs (higher CapEx). Management presented a decisive strategy reset and concrete early wins but acknowledged near-term pressure from competition and macro factors.Positive Updates
Underlying EBIT Delivered at Upper End of Guidance
Group delivered underlying EBIT of $563 million (upper end of January trading update range) demonstrating execution against guidance despite a challenging market.
Negative Updates
Retail Margin Compression and Earnings Decline
Retail gross profit margin declined 84 basis points to 23.9% reflecting price investment and elevated market promotions; Retail underlying EBIT declined 11.6% to $327 million, which materially weighed on group underlying earnings (group underlying EBIT declined ~5.4% year-on-year).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Underlying EBIT Delivered at Upper End of Guidance
Group delivered underlying EBIT of $563 million (upper end of January trading update range) demonstrating execution against guidance despite a challenging market.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated FY26 guidance with total Group capital expenditure revised up to $460–500 million to support an accelerated hotels program (21 renewals completed in H1, ~14 planned in H2 to total ~35 for the year) and gaming investment (over 800 new EGMs installed in H1 with at least ~800 more expected in H2), while One Endeavour program OpEx for FY26 is expected at the lower end of its $50–60m range and One Endeavour CapEx below its $40–50m range, with the ERP build on track for completion in H1 FY28 (≈18 months). Finance costs for FY26 are expected to be broadly in line with FY25; the Group finished the half with $1.0bn of undrawn facilities, net debt down $34m versus H1 FY25 and an underlying leverage ratio of 3.3x (management expects net debt and leverage to be higher at year‑end seasonally), and delivered a H1 cash realization ratio of 165% with net operating cash flow of $997m (free cash flow down $153m). The Board declared a fully franked interim dividend of $0.108 per share (a 70% payout ratio of underlying NPAT) and noted a H1 pretax significant item of $45m (including a $40m provision for the planned MLDC closure).Endeavour Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.12B | 12.06B | 12.31B | 11.88B | 11.60B | 11.60B |
| Gross Profit | 4.23B | 4.23B | 4.25B | 4.02B | 3.63B | 3.67B |
| EBITDA | 1.46B | 1.42B | 1.47B | 1.42B | 1.28B | 1.23B |
| Net Income | 375.00M | 426.00M | 512.00M | 529.00M | 495.00M | 445.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.95B | 11.73B | 11.78B | 11.67B | 10.85B | 10.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 344.00M | 318.00M | 293.00M | 290.00M | 294.00M | 437.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.35B | 5.82B | 6.07B | 6.09B | 5.32B | 5.49B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.96B | 7.90B | 8.01B | 7.96B | 7.29B | 7.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.99B | 3.83B | 3.77B | 3.71B | 3.56B | 3.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 650.00M | 816.00M | 791.00M | 361.00M | 668.00M | 835.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.11B | 1.15B | 1.21B | 769.00M | 953.00M | 1.11B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -429.00M | -299.00M | -441.00M | -519.00M | -275.00M | -318.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -705.00M | -826.00M | -766.00M | -254.00M | -821.00M | -734.00M |
Endeavour Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Negative
3.40
Price Trends
3.71
Negative
3.64
Negative
3.69
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
27.04
Positive
5.80
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:EDV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.72, below the 50-day MA of 3.71, and below the 200-day MA of 3.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.04 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.80 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:EDV.
Endeavour Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$1.57B | -40.41 | 14.44% | 1.55% | 6.09% | 166.89% | |
70 Outperform | AU$6.07B | 6.65 | 9.59% | 5.12% | -2.04% | -16.79% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | AU$2.92B | -1.63 | -10.03% | 7.42% | 6.47% | 281.30% | |
54 Neutral | AU$85.91M | -18.17 | -8.39% | ― | 2.62% | -85.79% | |
45 Neutral | AU$27.67M | -0.41 | -16.84% | ― | -1.31% | 92.08% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:EDV
Endeavour Group Ltd
3.38
-0.39
-10.30%
AU:AVG
Australian Vintage Ltd
0.08
-0.04
-32.80%
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
3.62
-6.06
-62.59%
AU:CBO
Cobram Estate Olives Ltd.
3.29
1.46
79.78%
AU:LRK
Lark Distilling Co. Ltd.
0.80
-0.14
-14.89%
Endeavour Group Ltd Corporate Events
Endeavour Group Corrects Half-Year Report, Confirms No Change to Results
Mar 4, 2026
Endeavour Group has issued a corrected version of its Appendix 4D and 2026 Half Year Financial Report after identifying administrative errors in the originally lodged documents. The update adds director Ari Mervis to the directors’ list and ...
Endeavour Group Rekindles Retail Growth as Hotels Hit Record Sales in First-Half FY26
Mar 3, 2026
Endeavour Group reported first-half FY26 Group sales of $6.7 billion, with retail sales momentum improving and hotels delivering solid growth despite a decline in underlying EBIT and NPAT. Liquor brands Dan Murphy’s and BWS returned to top-l...
Endeavour Group Declares Interim Dividend of AUD 0.108 Per Share
Mar 3, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has declared a fully paid ordinary share dividend of AUD 0.108 per share for the six‑month period ended 4 January 2026, reinforcing its practice of providing regular cash returns to investors. The interim distribution...
Endeavour Group Half-Year Profit Falls Despite Modest Revenue Growth
Mar 3, 2026
Endeavour Group has reported its half-year results for the 27 weeks to 4 January 2026, posting revenue of $6.68 billion, up 0.9% on the prior corresponding period. However, profit for the period fell 17.1% to $247 million, with earnings attributab...
Endeavour Group Announces Leadership Change at ALH Hotels
Jan 12, 2026
Endeavour Group has announced a leadership change at its ALH Hotels division, with Managing Director Paul Carew stepping down in January to pursue other career opportunities. Pinnacle Drinks Director Paul Walton has been appointed interim Managing...
Endeavour Group Sacrifices Margins to Rekindle Retail Growth as Hotels Hit Record December
Jan 12, 2026
Endeavour Group reported modest group sales growth of 1.0% to $6.68 billion for the 27 weeks to 4 January 2026, with total retail sales up 0.3% to $5.5 billion and hotel sales rising 4.4% to $1.2 billion. The core Dan Murphy’s and BWS chains...
Endeavour Group Reports Lapse of 17,111 Conditional Share Rights
Jan 7, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has notified the market that 17,111 share rights (ASX code: EDVAB) have lapsed following the failure to satisfy the vesting conditions attached to those conditional securities as at 17 December 2025. The lapse slightly redu...
Endeavour Group Issues 671 New Ordinary Shares Following Security Conversion
Jan 7, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has notified the Australian Securities Exchange of the conversion of unquoted securities into 671 new fully paid ordinary shares, effective 3 December 2025. The minor equity issuance, arising from the exercise or conversion...
Endeavour Group Appoints Carla Hrdlicka to Board
Jan 5, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has announced the appointment of Carla Jayne Hrdlicka as a director, effective 1 January 2026, as disclosed in an initial director’s interest notice lodged with the ASX. The filing shows Hrdlicka holds an indirect int...
Endeavour Group Updates Director Joanne Pollard’s Equity Holdings After Share Vesting
Jan 4, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has disclosed a change in the interests of non-executive director Joanne Elizabeth Pollard, following the automatic release and transfer of restricted ordinary shares granted under the company’s Non-executive Director...
Endeavour Group Appoints New CEO
Dec 16, 2025
Endeavour Group Ltd has announced the appointment of Jayne Hrdlicka as the new Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, effective from January 1, 2026, following the necessary regulatory approvals. This leadership change is expected to influ...
Endeavour Group Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentives
Dec 5, 2025
Endeavour Group Limited announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, including 875,834 share rights and 3,299,756 performance rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely to strengthen employee engagement and align...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.