Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$7.25B
• Dividend Yield: 5.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.91M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: -2.04%
• EPS Growth: -16.79%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 30,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 1,795,725,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,547,397
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,908,436
• PEG Ratio: -0.98
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$3.67
• Price Target Upside: -9.16% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.22
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$12.25B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$4.00 ▼(-0.99% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 09/03/25
• Date: Action: Downgraded 09/03/25

Endeavour Group Ltd's overall stock score is driven primarily by its solid financial performance, despite challenges in growth and leverage management. The technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, which is a significant concern. Valuation metrics are reasonable, with an attractive dividend yield providing some support.

Positive Factors

Scale & Brand Portfolio

Endeavour's extensive store and venue footprint and household brands create durable buying scale, supplier leverage and cross-channel marketing. This structural reach supports consistent category leadership, resilient revenue streams and long-term cost advantages versus smaller competitors.

Stable core margins

Consistently healthy gross and operating margins indicate structural efficiency in retail and hospitality operations. Margin durability reflects procurement scale, private-label and category mix advantages that help sustain operating profitability through typical market cycles.

Strong operating cash flow

Robust operating cash generation provides enduring funding capacity for dividends, maintenance capex and working capital needs. High cash conversion versus net income strengthens liquidity and supports strategic investments even if growth moderates.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Elevated leverage materially reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to interest costs and demand shocks. Over a multi-month horizon this makes capital allocation and resilience to downturns more constrained, especially for cyclical hospitality operations.

Negative revenue growth

A declining top line signals pressure on market share or demand and can erode scale benefits over time. Persistent negative revenue trends risk margin compression, slower inventory turns and reduced leverage on fixed costs, challenging medium-term earnings sustainability.

Declining free cash flow

A significant drop in free cash flow after capex limits capacity to reduce debt or increase shareholder returns. If sustained, lower FCF constrains reinvestment in stores and venues, weakening competitive position and making deleveraging slower and more difficult.

Endeavour Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Endeavour Group Limited engages in the retail drinks and hospitality businesses in Australia. It operates through Retail, Hotels, and Other segments. The company manufactures and sells drinks; and provides hotels-related goods and services, including food and drinks, accommodation, entertainment, and?gaming. It operates 1,675 stores under the Dan Murphy's and BWS brands, and 344 hotels. Endeavour Group Limited was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Surry Hills, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Endeavour Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of alcoholic beverages in its retail locations and hospitality venues. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales from its liquor retail stores, which offer a wide range of products including beer, wine, and spirits. Additionally, the hospitality segment contributes significantly to revenue through food and drink sales at its pubs and hotels. Partnerships with various alcohol suppliers and brands also enhance its product offerings and create promotional opportunities that drive sales. The company's focus on digital retailing and e-commerce has further expanded its market reach, contributing to its overall profitability.

Endeavour Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Endeavour Group Ltd demonstrates solid operational efficiency with stable gross and EBIT margins. However, the decline in revenue growth and net profit margin indicates potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum. The balance sheet shows a high leverage level, which could be a risk if not managed properly. Cash flow generation is strong, but the decline in free cash flow growth warrants attention.

Income Statement

Endeavour Group Ltd shows a stable gross profit margin around 35% over the years, indicating consistent profitability in its core operations. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 3.53% in the latest year, reflecting some pressure on overall profitability. The revenue growth rate has turned negative at -1.67%, which is a concern for future growth prospects. Despite this, the company maintains a reasonable EBIT margin of 6.10% and an EBITDA margin of 11.74%, suggesting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.52 indicates a relatively high level of leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity has decreased to 11.11%, showing a decline in profitability from shareholders' perspective. The equity ratio stands at 32.68%, suggesting a moderate reliance on equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a stable but leveraged financial position.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong at $1.15 billion, but free cash flow has decreased by 17.83%, indicating potential challenges in generating cash after capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.70, showing strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.71 suggests that a significant portion of earnings is reinvested back into the business.

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.06B	12.31B	11.88B	11.60B	11.60B
Gross Profit	4.23B	4.25B	4.02B	3.63B	3.67B
EBITDA	1.42B	1.47B	1.42B	1.28B	1.23B
Net Income	426.00M	512.00M	529.00M	495.00M	445.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.73B	11.78B	11.67B	10.85B	10.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	318.00M	293.00M	290.00M	294.00M	437.00M
Total Debt	5.82B	6.07B	6.09B	5.32B	5.49B
Total Liabilities	7.90B	8.01B	7.96B	7.29B	7.38B
Stockholders Equity	3.83B	3.77B	3.71B	3.56B	3.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	816.00M	791.00M	361.00M	668.00M	835.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.15B	1.21B	769.00M	953.00M	1.11B
Investing Cash Flow	-299.00M	-441.00M	-519.00M	-275.00M	-318.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-826.00M	-766.00M	-254.00M	-821.00M	-734.00M

Endeavour Group Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.04
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:EDV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.82, above the 50-day MA of 3.77, and above the 200-day MA of 3.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.43 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:EDV.

Endeavour Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CBO	75 Outperform	AU$1.42B	30.55	14.44%	1.55%	6.09%	166.89%
TWE	70 Outperform	AU$3.71B	-8.57	9.13%	7.42%	6.47%	281.30%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
EDV	60 Neutral	AU$7.25B	16.44	11.20%	5.12%	-2.04%	-16.79%
LRK	54 Neutral	AU$79.42M	-8.01	-10.39%	―	2.62%	-85.79%
AVG	45 Neutral	AU$30.31M	-0.98	-4.54%	―	-1.31%	92.08%

Endeavour Group Ltd Corporate Events

Endeavour Group Corrects Half-Year Report, Confirms No Change to Results

Endeavour Group has issued a corrected version of its Appendix 4D and 2026 Half Year Financial Report after identifying administrative errors in the originally lodged documents. The update adds director Ari Mervis to the directors’ list and replaces an incorrect signature on the Directors’ Report and Directors’ Declaration, with the company confirming there are no other changes to the financial results or disclosures already provided.

For the 27-week period to 4 January 2026, Endeavour reported revenue of $6.68 billion, up 0.9% on the prior corresponding period, while profit fell 17.1% to $247 million. The board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 10.8 cents per share, with the dividend reinvestment plan remaining inactive, meaning shareholders will receive their distributions entirely in cash.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EDV) stock is a Buy with a A$4.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Endeavour Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EDV Stock Forecast page.

Endeavour Group Rekindles Retail Growth as Hotels Hit Record Sales in First-Half FY26

Endeavour Group reported first-half FY26 Group sales of $6.7 billion, with retail sales momentum improving and hotels delivering solid growth despite a decline in underlying EBIT and NPAT. Liquor brands Dan Murphy’s and BWS returned to top-line growth, supported by aggressive price leadership, record December trading, and a strong uplift in online sales, while the Hotels division achieved record monthly revenues driven by refurbished venues and increased gaming activity.

Management confirmed it will retain the combined Retail and Hotels portfolio and outlined a strategy focused on restoring Dan Murphy’s price leadership, sharpening brand roles, accelerating hotel renewals and EGM upgrades, and simplifying operations following its separation from Woolworths. This integrated approach is aimed at leveraging Endeavour’s scale, strengthening its competitive position in both liquor and hospitality, and ultimately unlocking greater value for shareholders despite near-term earnings pressure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EDV) stock is a Sell with a A$3.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Endeavour Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EDV Stock Forecast page.

Endeavour Group Declares Interim Dividend of AUD 0.108 Per Share

Endeavour Group Limited has declared a fully paid ordinary share dividend of AUD 0.108 per share for the six‑month period ended 4 January 2026, reinforcing its practice of providing regular cash returns to investors. The interim distribution will trade ex‑dividend on 12 March 2026, with a record date of 13 March 2026 and payment scheduled for 15 April 2026, giving shareholders clear visibility on near‑term income and capital management timing.

The announcement signals continued profitability over the half‑year period and a sustained focus on shareholder returns, which may be seen as a sign of operational stability in the current environment. With no additional regulatory or court approvals indicated as required ahead of payment, the timetable suggests a straightforward execution of the dividend, providing income investors with predictable cash flow from their EDV holdings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EDV) stock is a Sell with a A$3.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Endeavour Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EDV Stock Forecast page.

Endeavour Group Half-Year Profit Falls Despite Modest Revenue Growth

Endeavour Group has reported its half-year results for the 27 weeks to 4 January 2026, posting revenue of $6.68 billion, up 0.9% on the prior corresponding period. However, profit for the period fell 17.1% to $247 million, with earnings attributable to equity holders matching the group’s total profit figure.

The board has declared a 2026 interim dividend of 10.8 cents per share, fully franked, equating to an expected payout of $195 million based on current shares on issue. The Dividend Reinvestment Plan will not be activated for this dividend, meaning all shareholders will receive cash payments rather than scrip, signalling a preference for cash returns amid a period of profit pressure.

Net tangible liabilities per share improved from negative 18.9 cents to negative 15.3 cents over the half-year, indicating a modest strengthening of the balance sheet despite lower earnings. The group’s structure remained stable, with no acquisitions or disposals of controlled entities, and its financial statements have been reviewed by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, providing external assurance over the reported figures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EDV) stock is a Sell with a A$3.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Endeavour Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EDV Stock Forecast page.

Endeavour Group Announces Leadership Change at ALH Hotels

Endeavour Group has announced a leadership change at its ALH Hotels division, with Managing Director Paul Carew stepping down in January to pursue other career opportunities. Pinnacle Drinks Director Paul Walton has been appointed interim Managing Director of ALH Hotels, returning to a role he previously held for two years, while the company conducts an executive search for a permanent successor, signalling a planned and orderly transition in a key operating segment.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EDV) stock is a Hold with a A$3.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Endeavour Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EDV Stock Forecast page.

Endeavour Group Sacrifices Margins to Rekindle Retail Growth as Hotels Hit Record December

Endeavour Group reported modest group sales growth of 1.0% to $6.68 billion for the 27 weeks to 4 January 2026, with total retail sales up 0.3% to $5.5 billion and hotel sales rising 4.4% to $1.2 billion. The core Dan Murphy’s and BWS chains returned to firmer momentum with four consecutive months of growth and a record December, helped by stepped-up investment in lower shelf prices and aggressive promotions, but this strategy compressed retail gross profit margins by about 85 basis points and is expected to pull Retail EBIT down to $323–328 million. At group level, EBIT before significant items is projected at $555–566 million and profit before tax at $400–411 million, below the prior period, while the company also flagged $45 million in pre-tax significant items for the half. Management framed the margin trade-off as a deliberate move to reinforce price leadership and re-ignite top-line growth in a competitive market, signalling ongoing initiatives in pricing sophistication, customer experience and cost reduction that will take time to flow through, even as the hotels division continues to deliver robust like-for-like growth and record trading over the peak holiday period.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EDV) stock is a Hold with a A$3.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Endeavour Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EDV Stock Forecast page.

Endeavour Group Reports Lapse of 17,111 Conditional Share Rights

Endeavour Group Limited has notified the market that 17,111 share rights (ASX code: EDVAB) have lapsed following the failure to satisfy the vesting conditions attached to those conditional securities as at 17 December 2025. The lapse slightly reduces the company’s pool of potential equity issuance under this rights program, signalling no dilution for existing shareholders from these particular instruments and reflecting the conditional, performance-based nature of Endeavour’s equity arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EDV) stock is a Hold with a A$3.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Endeavour Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EDV Stock Forecast page.

Endeavour Group Issues 671 New Ordinary Shares Following Security Conversion

Endeavour Group Limited has notified the Australian Securities Exchange of the conversion of unquoted securities into 671 new fully paid ordinary shares, effective 3 December 2025. The minor equity issuance, arising from the exercise or conversion of unquoted options or other convertible securities, marginally increases the company’s share capital and reflects ongoing operation of its equity-based arrangements, with negligible immediate impact on existing shareholders’ holdings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EDV) stock is a Hold with a A$3.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Endeavour Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EDV Stock Forecast page.

Endeavour Group Appoints Carla Hrdlicka to Board

Endeavour Group Limited has announced the appointment of Carla Jayne Hrdlicka as a director, effective 1 January 2026, as disclosed in an initial director’s interest notice lodged with the ASX. The filing shows Hrdlicka holds an indirect interest in 4,196 fully paid ordinary shares in Endeavour Group via BT Portfolio Services Limited and has no relevant interests in any contracts with the company, signaling a modest existing alignment with shareholders as she joins the board.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EDV) stock is a Hold with a A$3.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Endeavour Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EDV Stock Forecast page.

Endeavour Group Updates Director Joanne Pollard’s Equity Holdings After Share Vesting

Endeavour Group Limited has disclosed a change in the interests of non-executive director Joanne Elizabeth Pollard, following the automatic release and transfer of restricted ordinary shares granted under the company’s Non-executive Director Equity Plan. On 1 January 2026, 8,551 restricted ordinary shares previously held on her behalf by Pacific Custodians Pty Limited as trustee for the Endeavour Group Employee Equity Plan Trust were transferred into her direct ownership, increasing her direct holding to 8,551 ordinary shares, while her indirect restricted shareholding decreased to 21,880 and her indirect ordinary shareholding remained at 7,500; the transaction involved no consideration, reflecting a vesting event rather than a market trade and signalling routine alignment of director remuneration with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EDV) stock is a Hold with a A$3.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Endeavour Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EDV Stock Forecast page.

Endeavour Group Appoints New CEO

Endeavour Group Ltd has announced the appointment of Jayne Hrdlicka as the new Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, effective from January 1, 2026, following the necessary regulatory approvals. This leadership change is expected to influence the company’s strategic direction and potentially impact its market positioning, signaling a new phase in its operational management.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EDV) stock is a Hold with a A$3.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Endeavour Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EDV Stock Forecast page.

Endeavour Group Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentives

Endeavour Group Limited announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, including 875,834 share rights and 3,299,756 performance rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely to strengthen employee engagement and align their interests with the company’s long-term goals, potentially enhancing operational performance and market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EDV) stock is a Hold with a A$3.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Endeavour Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EDV Stock Forecast page.