Endeavour Group Ltd (AU:EDV)
ASX:EDV
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Endeavour Group Ltd
(Sydney:EDV)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
AU$3.50
▲(7.69% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/04/26
The score is driven mainly by stable underlying profitability and strong operating cash generation, supported by positive technical trend signals. It is tempered by weak/negative top-line growth, pressure on net margin and free cash flow, and earnings-call risks centered on retail margin compression and elevated reinvestment needs from higher FY26 capex.
Positive Factors
Strong operating cash generation
Sustained high operating cash flow (OCF $1.15bn) and a 165% cash realization ratio indicate durable cash conversion from earnings. This strengthens the company's ability to fund investment, pay dividends and reduce leverage over time, improving financial flexibility versus peers.
Negative Factors
Retail margin compression
Sustained retail margin erosion and an 11.6% drop in Retail EBIT reflect competitive price investment and promotions. If elevated promotional intensity persists, retail margins and group profitability could remain pressured, limiting durable earnings recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating cash generation
Sustained high operating cash flow (OCF $1.15bn) and a 165% cash realization ratio indicate durable cash conversion from earnings. This strengthens the company's ability to fund investment, pay dividends and reduce leverage over time, improving financial flexibility versus peers.
Read all positive factors
Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$5.80B
Dividend Yield5.12%
Average Volume (3M)2.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.7
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth-2.04%
EPS Growth-16.79%
CountryAU
Employees30,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding1,795,725,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,547,397
30 Day Avg. Volume2,908,436
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.98
Price to Book (P/B)1.87
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio8.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.61Price Target Upside11.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$12.22B
Endeavour Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Endeavour Group Limited engages in the retail drinks and hospitality businesses in Australia. It operates through Retail, Hotels, and Other segments. The company manufactures and sells drinks; and provides hotels-related goods and services, includ...
How the Company Makes Money
Endeavour Group primarily makes money through two operating segments: retail liquor and hotels. In retail liquor, revenue is generated from selling alcoholic beverages (and a smaller range of related products) through its store network and online ...
Endeavour Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call illustrated a mixed but constructive picture: Hotels momentum, strong cash generation, meaningful cost program delivery and clear retail re-pricing/market-share gains are positive. Offsetting these are notable retail margin compression, an 11.6% decline in Retail EBIT, one-off charges (~$45m), lower free cash flow and elevated reinvestment needs (higher CapEx). Management presented a decisive strategy reset and concrete early wins but acknowledged near-term pressure from competition and macro factors.Positive Updates
Underlying EBIT Delivered at Upper End of Guidance
Group delivered underlying EBIT of $563 million (upper end of January trading update range) demonstrating execution against guidance despite a challenging market.
Negative Updates
Retail Margin Compression and Earnings Decline
Retail gross profit margin declined 84 basis points to 23.9% reflecting price investment and elevated market promotions; Retail underlying EBIT declined 11.6% to $327 million, which materially weighed on group underlying earnings (group underlying EBIT declined ~5.4% year-on-year).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Underlying EBIT Delivered at Upper End of Guidance
Group delivered underlying EBIT of $563 million (upper end of January trading update range) demonstrating execution against guidance despite a challenging market.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated FY26 guidance with total Group capital expenditure revised up to $460–500 million to support an accelerated hotels program (21 renewals completed in H1, ~14 planned in H2 to total ~35 for the year) and gaming investment (over 800 new EGMs installed in H1 with at least ~800 more expected in H2), while One Endeavour program OpEx for FY26 is expected at the lower end of its $50–60m range and One Endeavour CapEx below its $40–50m range, with the ERP build on track for completion in H1 FY28 (≈18 months). Finance costs for FY26 are expected to be broadly in line with FY25; the Group finished the half with $1.0bn of undrawn facilities, net debt down $34m versus H1 FY25 and an underlying leverage ratio of 3.3x (management expects net debt and leverage to be higher at year‑end seasonally), and delivered a H1 cash realization ratio of 165% with net operating cash flow of $997m (free cash flow down $153m). The Board declared a fully franked interim dividend of $0.108 per share (a 70% payout ratio of underlying NPAT) and noted a H1 pretax significant item of $45m (including a $40m provision for the planned MLDC closure).Endeavour Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.12B | 12.06B | 12.31B | 11.88B | 11.60B | 11.60B |
| Gross Profit | 4.23B | 4.23B | 4.25B | 4.02B | 3.63B | 3.67B |
| EBITDA | 1.46B | 1.42B | 1.47B | 1.42B | 1.28B | 1.23B |
| Net Income | 375.00M | 426.00M | 512.00M | 529.00M | 495.00M | 445.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.95B | 11.73B | 11.78B | 11.67B | 10.85B | 10.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 344.00M | 318.00M | 293.00M | 290.00M | 294.00M | 437.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.35B | 5.82B | 6.07B | 6.09B | 5.32B | 5.49B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.96B | 7.90B | 8.01B | 7.96B | 7.29B | 7.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.99B | 3.83B | 3.77B | 3.71B | 3.56B | 3.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 650.00M | 816.00M | 791.00M | 361.00M | 668.00M | 835.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.11B | 1.15B | 1.21B | 769.00M | 953.00M | 1.11B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -429.00M | -299.00M | -441.00M | -519.00M | -275.00M | -318.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -705.00M | -826.00M | -766.00M | -254.00M | -821.00M | -734.00M |
Endeavour Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Negative
3.25
Price Trends
3.59
Negative
3.60
Negative
3.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.12
Negative
31.36
Neutral
58.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:EDV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.37, below the 50-day MA of 3.59, and below the 200-day MA of 3.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:EDV.
Endeavour Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$1.70B | -40.41 | 14.44% | 1.55% | 6.09% | 166.89% | |
70 Outperform | AU$5.80B | 6.65 | 9.59% | 5.12% | -2.04% | -16.79% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | AU$3.16B | -1.63 | -10.03% | 7.42% | 6.47% | 281.30% | |
54 Neutral | AU$91.28M | -18.17 | -8.39% | ― | 2.62% | -85.79% | |
45 Neutral | AU$26.36M | -0.41 | -16.84% | ― | -1.31% | 92.08% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:EDV
Endeavour Group Ltd
3.26
-0.54
-14.14%
AU:AVG
Australian Vintage Ltd
0.08
-0.03
-26.67%
AU:TWE
Treasury Wine Estates Limited
4.01
-4.42
-52.43%
AU:CBO
Cobram Estate Olives Ltd.
3.55
1.73
95.05%
AU:LRK
Lark Distilling Co. Ltd.
0.83
-0.07
-7.30%
Endeavour Group Ltd Corporate Events
Endeavour Group Reports Lapse of 687,909 Share and Performance Rights
Apr 16, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has reported the lapse of a total of 687,909 equity incentives, comprising 233,990 share rights and 453,919 performance rights, after the conditions attached to these awards were not met or became incapable of being satisfi...
Endeavour Group Issues New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Apr 16, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has notified the ASX of the issue of 54,062 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion of unquoted options or other unquoted convertible securities. The new shares, dated 31 March 2026, modestly increase the compan...
Endeavour Group Issues Over 1.8 Million Unquoted Rights Under Staff Incentive Schemes
Mar 23, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has notified the market of the issue of new unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive schemes, comprising 835,687 share rights and 1,030,270 performance rights. The securities, which are not intended to be quo...
Endeavour Group Updates Currency Details on Interim Dividend Notice
Mar 15, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has updated its previously announced interim dividend notification for holders of its ordinary fully paid shares, relating to the six‑month period ended 4 January 2026. The revision, dated 16 March 2026, concerns amen...
Endeavour Group Corrects Half-Year Report, Confirms No Change to Results
Mar 4, 2026
Endeavour Group has issued a corrected version of its Appendix 4D and 2026 Half Year Financial Report after identifying administrative errors in the originally lodged documents. The update adds director Ari Mervis to the directors’ list and ...
Endeavour Group Rekindles Retail Growth as Hotels Hit Record Sales in First-Half FY26
Mar 3, 2026
Endeavour Group reported first-half FY26 Group sales of $6.7 billion, with retail sales momentum improving and hotels delivering solid growth despite a decline in underlying EBIT and NPAT. Liquor brands Dan Murphy’s and BWS returned to top-l...
Endeavour Group Declares Interim Dividend of AUD 0.108 Per Share
Mar 3, 2026
Endeavour Group Limited has declared a fully paid ordinary share dividend of AUD 0.108 per share for the six‑month period ended 4 January 2026, reinforcing its practice of providing regular cash returns to investors. The interim distribution...
Endeavour Group Half-Year Profit Falls Despite Modest Revenue Growth
Mar 3, 2026
Endeavour Group has reported its half-year results for the 27 weeks to 4 January 2026, posting revenue of $6.68 billion, up 0.9% on the prior corresponding period. However, profit for the period fell 17.1% to $247 million, with earnings attributab...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.