Metro Mining Limited (AU:MMI)
ASX:MMI
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Metro Mining Limited
(Sydney:MMI)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
AU$0.07
▼(-1.43% Downside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/01/26
The score is driven primarily by a major 2025 financial turnaround (profitability, leverage improvement, and positive free cash flow) and a constructive earnings outlook (higher 2026 volume target, risk mitigation, and a planned buyback). This is tempered by mixed technical momentum signals and the need to see the improved earnings/cash generation sustained beyond a single strong year.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Profit Turnaround
A large 2025 revenue and margin inflection (revenue doubling to A$378.4M, materially higher gross and net margins and record underlying EBITDA) shows the business can generate strong operating leverage when volumes recover, improving sustainable cash generation if execution holds.
Negative Factors
Weather and Marine Sensitivity
Production and cash are materially exposed to weather and marine conditions; past events cost ~320–370k tonnes and materially affected net‑cash timing. Even with mitigation plans, this external volatility remains a persistent operational risk to volumes and cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Profit Turnaround
A large 2025 revenue and margin inflection (revenue doubling to A$378.4M, materially higher gross and net margins and record underlying EBITDA) shows the business can generate strong operating leverage when volumes recover, improving sustainable cash generation if execution holds.
Read all positive factors
Metro Mining Limited (MMI) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$417.85M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)22.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.3
Beta (1Y)1.35
Revenue Growth45.56%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees115
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)<0.01
Shares Outstanding6,144,891,000
10 Day Avg. Volume25,158,768
30 Day Avg. Volume22,532,819
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.48
Price to Sales (P/S)1.22
P/FCF Ratio8.42
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.15Price Target Upside114.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$436.00M
Metro Mining Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Metro Mining Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an exploration and mining company in Australia and China. The company explores for coal and bauxite ores. Its flagship project is the Bauxite Hills Mine property covering an area of...
How the Company Makes Money
Metro Mining makes money primarily by selling bauxite it produces from its mining operations. Revenue is generated through offtake sales/contracts and spot/short-term sales (where applicable) in which customers pay per tonne of bauxite delivered u...
Metro Mining Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial trajectory: double‑digit production growth (9%), a record underlying EBITDA (~$73M, nearly +100% YoY), significant balance‑sheet repair (>$23M debt repaid) and robust hedging, tax shield and capital‑return plans (5% buyback). The primary negatives were weather‑related lost volumes, operational variability that constrained full realization of capacity, and some near‑term cash timing/Ikamba dry‑dock outlays. Management outlined clear remediation actions (asset upgrades, new operating system, targeted channel works) and reiterated a 7M+ tonnes 2026 target. On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Production Increase and 2026 Target
Production rose 9% year‑on‑year to approximately 6.2 million tonnes in FY2025 (management reference point). The company targets 7.0+ million tonnes for 2026 as flow‑sheet elements have demonstrated required capacity and variability is being addressed.
Negative Updates
Weather and Channel‑Related Production Shortfalls
Severe Easter weather event caused channel edge collapse and reduced 2025 production by an estimated 150,000–200,000 tonnes. Additionally, inability to load the final vessel in December cost ~170,000 tonnes. Combined lost volumes are roughly 320,000–370,000 tonnes, which contributed to missing the net cash milestone by a small margin.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Increase and 2026 Target
Production rose 9% year‑on‑year to approximately 6.2 million tonnes in FY2025 (management reference point). The company targets 7.0+ million tonnes for 2026 as flow‑sheet elements have demonstrated required capacity and variability is being addressed.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to 7+ million tonnes for 2026 (up from 6.2 Mt in 2025, a 9% increase year‑on‑year) as it drives economies of scale and lower cost‑curve positioning; H1 2025 margins exceeded ~$30/tonne and FY25 delivered a record underlying EBITDA of $73M (≈100% YoY improvement) with strong free cash flow. The company is essentially net‑cash after repaying >$23M of debt (cash $57.5M vs debt $58.9M), will run a 12‑month on‑market buyback targeting retirement of 5% of shares, and expects to utilise ~ $184M of gross carryforward tax losses through 2026 (not likely to be tax‑paying until H2 2027). Risk reduction measures include hedging ~75% of net USD exposure around A$0.64–0.65, multi‑year freight contracts (2–4 years) that are AUD ~2–3/tonne “in the money” for 2026, planning for typical wet‑season holding cash burn of ~ $20M/quarter (Ikamba dry‑docking cash outlays are incremental but largely provided for in FY25 with material payments expected around Apr–May), and operational changes aimed at recapturing volumes lost in 2025 (circa 150–200k t from an Easter channel event plus ~170k t from an unshipped December vessel).Metro Mining Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 378.36M | 307.34M | 235.84M | 177.90M | 160.14M |
| Gross Profit | 69.59M | 35.46M | 12.95M | -31.53M | -30.14M |
| EBITDA | 126.22M | 19.89M | 19.45M | -25.07M | -79.54M |
| Net Income | 142.33M | -22.00M | -13.48M | -50.12M | -105.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 361.37M | 243.21M | 169.00M | 129.53M | 152.27M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 62.84M | 36.57M | 12.15M | 12.02M | 13.88M |
| Total Debt | 116.45M | 110.10M | 101.14M | 59.61M | 67.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 174.50M | 202.60M | 159.04M | 110.59M | 110.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | 186.87M | 40.60M | 9.95M | 18.94M | 41.99M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 55.02M | -37.00K | -142.00K | -11.22M | -25.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 65.79M | 29.34M | 12.32M | -1.19M | -22.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.07M | -59.47M | -36.31M | -6.69M | -3.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -24.41M | 53.96M | 27.96M | 7.62M | 9.16M |
Metro Mining Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
0.07
Price Trends
0.07
Positive
0.07
Positive
0.07
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
56.07
Neutral
75.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.07, above the 50-day MA of 0.07, and below the 200-day MA of 0.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:MMI.
Metro Mining Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | AU$1.15B | 9.49 | 33.38% | ― | 45.73% | 716.15% | |
77 Outperform | AU$530.78M | 9.80 | 7.01% | 5.45% | 16.86% | 3.03% | |
73 Outperform | AU$417.85M | 3.25 | 81.38% | ― | 45.56% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | AU$555.45M | -18.79 | -179.67% | ― | -100.00% | -6.00% | |
46 Neutral | AU$371.58M | -3.97 | -12.76% | ― | ― | 51.47% | |
41 Neutral | AU$268.07M | -15.09 | -26.32% | ― | ― | -91.89% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:MMI
Metro Mining Limited
0.07
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38.78%
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Metro Mining Limited Corporate Events
Metro Mining Restores Bauxite Hills Operations After Cyclone Narelle
Mar 22, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has reported that its Bauxite Hills Mine in Cape York sustained minimal impact from Tropical Cyclone Narelle, with no damage to site infrastructure despite heavy rain and offshore waves reaching six metres. The company had act...
Metro Mining Publishes 2025 Annual Report with Focus on Operations and Indigenous Engagement
Mar 20, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has released its 2025 Annual Report detailing its operational, financial and governance performance over the year. The report includes a Chairman’s letter, CEO and Managing Director’s report, sustainability report,...
Metro Mining Sets 2026 AGM with Digital Access and Webcast Options
Mar 20, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has called its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 11:00 a.m. AEST on 22 April 2026 at the Amora Hotel in Brisbane, where the board will present the 2025 annual report and outline key achievements, strategy and priorities for the ...
Metro Mining Director Andrew Lloyd Increases Equity Stake via On‑Market Share Purchase
Mar 11, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has reported a change in the shareholdings of director Andrew Lloyd, reflecting an increase in his and his associate’s equity position in the company. Lloyd acquired 375,000 ordinary shares via an on‑market trade o...
Metro Mining Director Increases Shareholding via On-Market Purchase
Mar 11, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has disclosed a change in the holdings of director Paul Thomas Lucas, who increased his direct stake in the company through an on-market purchase. Lucas acquired 160,000 ordinary shares on 9 March 2026 for $10,560, lifting his...
Metro Mining Restarts Bauxite Hills Operations as Ikamba Refit Advances
Mar 10, 2026
Metro Mining has completed its wet season maintenance at the Bauxite Hills Mine and begun restarting operations on 11 March, supported by pre-loaded bauxite on barges and sizeable run-of-mine stockpiles while initial mining focuses on pre-strippin...
Metro Mining Issues 7.5 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Mar 10, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has notified the market of the issue of 7,487,083 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, dated 3 March 2026. The award of these performance rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, unde...
Metro Mining Flags Lapse of 25 Million Performance Rights
Mar 10, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has reported a change in its issued capital following the lapse of a large tranche of performance rights. The company disclosed that 24,975,460 performance rights, trading under the code MMIAO, ceased on 3 March 2026 because t...
Metro Mining Adjusts Capital Structure as 10.7 Million Performance Rights Lapse
Mar 10, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 10,678,888 performance rights, recorded under ASX security code MMIAO, effective 3 March 2026. The change, disclosed via an Appendix 3H filing, reflects an adjustment to the company&...
Metro Mining Updates Market on Managing Director’s Incentive-Based Equity Changes
Mar 9, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has disclosed changes to Managing Director Simon Wensley’s interests in the company’s securities, reflecting recent vesting, lapse and conversion of performance rights, along with a sale of ordinary shares. The upd...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Mar 6, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied for quotation of 1,292,000 ordinary fully paid shares on the Australian Securities Exchange, with an issue date of March 4, 2026. The new securities were issued under an employee incentive scheme and their quotatio...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for Nearly 9 Million New Shares
Mar 6, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied to the Australian Securities Exchange for quotation of 8,957,567 new ordinary fully paid shares. The securities, issued on 3 March 2026 under an employee incentive scheme, will be fully quoted, modestly increasing ...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for 23.9 Million New Shares
Mar 6, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 23,850,906 new ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 3 March 2026. The securities have been issued under an employee incentive scheme and, once quoted, will expand the compan...
Metro Mining Files Updated Corporate Governance Statement and Appendix 4G
Feb 27, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has lodged its updated corporate governance statement for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, confirming that the document is current as of 25 February 2026 and has been approved by the board. The statement, published o...
Metro Mining Details 2025 Corporate Governance Framework and Board Oversight
Feb 27, 2026
Metro Mining has released its 2025 Corporate Governance Statement, detailing how it aligns its governance practices with the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s latest principles and recommendations. The board approved the statement for the y...
Metro Mining Announces On-Market Share Buy-Back
Feb 27, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has announced an on-market buy-back of its ordinary fully paid shares listed on the ASX under the code MMI. The move signals the company’s intention to actively manage its capital structure and may be interpreted as mana...
Metro Mining posts record 2025 profit and launches 5% share buy-back
Feb 27, 2026
Metro Mining reported a strong turnaround in 2025, delivering record bauxite shipments of 6.2 million wet metric tonnes and swinging to a net profit after tax of $142.3 million from a loss the previous year. The company also posted record underlyi...
Metro Mining Delivers Strong Turnaround with Surging Profit and Higher Asset Backing
Feb 27, 2026
Metro Mining Limited reported a strong financial turnaround for the year ended 31 December 2025, with revenue from ordinary activities rising 23.11% to $378.4 million and profit after tax from continuing operations surging to $142.3 million. The c...
Metro Mining Updates Director Andrew Lloyd’s Equity Holdings After Performance Rights Conversion
Feb 26, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has reported changes to director Andrew Lloyd’s interests in the company’s securities, reflecting the conversion of vested performance rights into ordinary shares in lieu of director’s fees. The updated discl...
Metro Mining Sets 2026 AGM and Reporting Timetable
Feb 26, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has outlined its schedule for shareholder and financial reporting events in 2026, confirming its Annual General Meeting will be held on 22 April in Brisbane and that nominations for directors close on 9 March, with the notice ...
Metro Mining to Brief Investors on 2025 Results via Webinar
Feb 26, 2026
Metro Mining has invited shareholders to a webinar presentation where its chief executive and chief financial officer will discuss the company’s 2025 annual results, with the session scheduled for 27 February 2026 and a recording to be made ...
Metro Mining to Brief Shareholders on Bauxite Hills Q4 Operations via Webinar
Jan 28, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has invited shareholders to a webinar presentation hosted by CEO and Managing Director Simon Wensley, which will provide an update on operational activities at its Bauxite Hills Mine for the fourth quarter of 2025. The session...
Metro Mining Delivers Record 2025 Shipments and Positions for Margin Upside in 2026
Jan 27, 2026
Metro Mining reported record calendar-year bauxite shipments of 6.2 million wet metric tonnes in 2025, up 9% year-on-year and within its revised guidance, supported by a strong fourth quarter despite weather-related shipping disruptions late in De...
Metro Mining Reshapes Executive Team to Drive Integrated, Low-Cost Growth
Jan 22, 2026
Metro Mining has overhauled its executive leadership structure as it rolls out a new management operating system designed to better integrate planning across its bauxite supply chain, aiming to improve performance, reliability and cost efficiency....
Metro Mining Posts Record 2025 Bauxite Shipments and Solid Year-End Cash Position
Jan 6, 2026
Metro Mining Limited reported record calendar-year shipments of 6.2 million wet metric tonnes (WMT) of bauxite from its Bauxite Hills Operation in 2025, a 9% increase on the prior year and in line with revised guidance. December 2025 shipments rea...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.