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Metro Mining Limited
(Sydney:MMI)
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Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
AU$2.00
▲(2757.14% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/13/26
The score is driven primarily by a strong 2025 financial turnaround (profitability, leverage improvement, and free cash flow) and supportive technical trend (price above major moving averages with positive momentum). Valuation appears extremely low on the provided P/E, boosting the score, while earnings-call guidance is positive but tempered by execution/weather variability and near-term cash timing risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue and margin turnaround
FY2025 shows a material operational inflection: doubling of revenue and large margin expansion imply improved unit economics and operating leverage. If sustained through higher volumes and cost control, this shift supports durable cash generation and a structurally stronger business model versus prior loss years.
Negative Factors
Weather and marine exposure
Bauxite volumes and cash timing remain materially exposed to weather and marine conditions; past events cost ~320–370k tonnes. Such externalities can cause recurring production shortfalls, margin dilution from fixed-cost absorption, and unpredictable cash flow swings unless fully mitigated by infrastructure and operational resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin turnaround
FY2025 shows a material operational inflection: doubling of revenue and large margin expansion imply improved unit economics and operating leverage. If sustained through higher volumes and cost control, this shift supports durable cash generation and a structurally stronger business model versus prior loss years.
Read all positive factors
Metro Mining Limited (MMI) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$529.23M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)22.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)0.2
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth23.11%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees115
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.32
Shares Outstanding307,691,530
10 Day Avg. Volume25,158,768
30 Day Avg. Volume22,532,819
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.12
Price to Sales (P/S)0.06
P/FCF Ratio0.42
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.00Price Target Upside4185.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$422.00M
Metro Mining Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Metro Mining Limited, along with its subsidiaries, functions as a mineral exploration and extraction enterprise operating across Australia and China. The company's primary focus involves prospecting for deposits of coal and bauxite ores. A signifi...
How the Company Makes Money
Metro Mining primarily makes money by producing and selling bauxite to customers under offtake/sales arrangements. Revenue is generated when bauxite is mined, transported to port, and shipped to buyers, with sales typically priced per tonne and in...
Metro Mining Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial trajectory: double‑digit production growth (9%), a record underlying EBITDA (~$73M, nearly +100% YoY), significant balance‑sheet repair (>$23M debt repaid) and robust hedging, tax shield and capital‑return plans (5% buyback). The primary negatives were weather‑related lost volumes, operational variability that constrained full realization of capacity, and some near‑term cash timing/Ikamba dry‑dock outlays. Management outlined clear remediation actions (asset upgrades, new operating system, targeted channel works) and reiterated a 7M+ tonnes 2026 target. On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Production Increase and 2026 Target
Production rose 9% year‑on‑year to approximately 6.2 million tonnes in FY2025 (management reference point). The company targets 7.0+ million tonnes for 2026 as flow‑sheet elements have demonstrated required capacity and variability is being addressed.
Negative Updates
Weather and Channel‑Related Production Shortfalls
Severe Easter weather event caused channel edge collapse and reduced 2025 production by an estimated 150,000–200,000 tonnes. Additionally, inability to load the final vessel in December cost ~170,000 tonnes. Combined lost volumes are roughly 320,000–370,000 tonnes, which contributed to missing the net cash milestone by a small margin.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Increase and 2026 Target
Production rose 9% year‑on‑year to approximately 6.2 million tonnes in FY2025 (management reference point). The company targets 7.0+ million tonnes for 2026 as flow‑sheet elements have demonstrated required capacity and variability is being addressed.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to 7+ million tonnes for 2026 (up from 6.2 Mt in 2025, a 9% increase year‑on‑year) as it drives economies of scale and lower cost‑curve positioning; H1 2025 margins exceeded ~$30/tonne and FY25 delivered a record underlying EBITDA of $73M (≈100% YoY improvement) with strong free cash flow. The company is essentially net‑cash after repaying >$23M of debt (cash $57.5M vs debt $58.9M), will run a 12‑month on‑market buyback targeting retirement of 5% of shares, and expects to utilise ~ $184M of gross carryforward tax losses through 2026 (not likely to be tax‑paying until H2 2027). Risk reduction measures include hedging ~75% of net USD exposure around A$0.64–0.65, multi‑year freight contracts (2–4 years) that are AUD ~2–3/tonne “in the money” for 2026, planning for typical wet‑season holding cash burn of ~ $20M/quarter (Ikamba dry‑docking cash outlays are incremental but largely provided for in FY25 with material payments expected around Apr–May), and operational changes aimed at recapturing volumes lost in 2025 (circa 150–200k t from an Easter channel event plus ~170k t from an unshipped December vessel).Metro Mining Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 378.36M | 307.34M | 235.84M | 177.90M | 160.14M |
| Gross Profit | 69.59M | 35.46M | 12.95M | -31.53M | -30.14M |
| EBITDA | 126.22M | 19.89M | 19.45M | -25.07M | -79.54M |
| Net Income | 142.33M | -22.00M | -13.48M | -50.12M | -105.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 361.37M | 243.21M | 169.00M | 129.53M | 152.27M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 62.84M | 36.57M | 12.15M | 12.02M | 13.88M |
| Total Debt | 116.45M | 110.10M | 101.14M | 59.61M | 67.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 174.50M | 202.60M | 159.04M | 110.59M | 110.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | 186.87M | 40.60M | 9.95M | 18.94M | 41.99M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 55.02M | -37.00K | -142.00K | -11.22M | -25.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 65.79M | 29.34M | 12.32M | -1.19M | -22.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.07M | -59.47M | -36.31M | -6.69M | -3.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -24.41M | 53.96M | 27.96M | 7.62M | 9.16M |
Metro Mining Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
0.07
Price Trends
1.48
Positive
1.40
Positive
1.45
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
65.63
Neutral
51.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.62, below the 50-day MA of 1.48, and below the 200-day MA of 1.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:MMI.
Metro Mining Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | AU$1.18B | 11.11 | 20.65% | ― | 30.24% | 4.06% | |
81 Outperform | AU$529.23M | 0.18 | 81.38% | ― | 23.11% | ― | |
72 Outperform | AU$540.61M | 12.79 | 7.47% | 5.45% | -0.46% | -0.92% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
46 Neutral | AU$180.32M | -4.41 | -12.76% | ― | ― | 17.61% | |
42 Neutral | AU$187.65M | -7.44 | -26.32% | ― | ― | -6.36% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:MMI
Metro Mining Limited
1.74
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24.29%
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Lotus Resources Limited
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Metro Mining Limited Corporate Events
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Incentive Shares
Jul 3, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied for quotation of 29,495 new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, issued on June 30, 2026 under an employee incentive scheme. The modest share issuance reflects ongoing use of equity-based remuneration, with limit...
Metro Mining Corrects Performance Rights After Share Consolidation Rounding Error
Jul 1, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has updated its notification to the ASX regarding unquoted equity securities, specifically correcting performance rights held on behalf of executive Simon Wensley. The adjustment addresses a rounding error that arose from a pr...
Metro Mining Details New Performance Rights Grant to Managing Director
Jun 30, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has updated the market on changes to Managing Director Simon Wensley’s interests in the company’s securities, detailing a fresh grant of 849,141 performance rights under its Employee Incentive Plan. The new rights,...
Metro Mining Corrects Holder Details for KMP Performance Rights
Jun 30, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has filed an updated Appendix 3G to notify the market of changes related to unquoted equity securities, specifically performance rights tied to key management personnel. The update clarifies that the performance rights previou...
Metro Mining Corrects Holder Details for KMP Performance Rights
Jun 30, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has updated its Appendix 3G filing to correct the recorded holder of certain unquoted performance rights linked to key management personnel. The change clarifies that the performance rights associated with KMP Simon Wensley ar...
Metro Mining Issues Over 1.2 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Jun 26, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has notified the market of the issuance of 1,227,982 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 15 June 2026. These performance rights, which will not be quoted on the ASX, form part of the comp...
Metro Mining Issues New Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Plan
Jun 26, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has notified the market of the issue of 1,659,362 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. The new securities, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, were issued on 16 June 2026 and reflect the...
Metro Mining appoints new General Counsel and Company Secretary to support growth phase
Jun 25, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has appointed Rudi Cohrssen as its new General Counsel and Company Secretary, effective 1 July 2026, bringing extensive cross‑jurisdictional experience in corporate, commercial, environmental and natural resources law, a...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for Employee Incentive Shares
Jun 24, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 64,550 new ordinary fully paid shares, issued on June 11, 2026. The securities have been created under an employee incentive scheme and will be fully quoted, indicating ongoing use of eq...
Metro Mining Ramps Up Bauxite Hills Output as Shipping Capacity Restored
Jun 8, 2026
Metro Mining reported a strong operational rebound at its Bauxite Hills Mine in May 2026, shipping 604 thousand wet metric tonnes of bauxite, a 45% increase on April, after the offshore floating terminal Ikamba returned from dry dock and restored ...
Metro Mining Updates Investor Presentation After Minor Correction
Jun 3, 2026
Metro Mining has issued an updated investor presentation after making a minor correction to a slide heading in a version released earlier the same day. The revised materials, approved by the company’s General Counsel and Company Secretary, p...
Metro Mining Issues Investor Update with Risk and Disclosure Emphasis
Jun 3, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has released an investor update presentation intended solely to provide general information about the company and its operations, without constituting an offer or invitation to buy securities. The document stresses that it is ...
Metro Mining Director Jo-Anne Scarini Steps Down
Jun 1, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has announced that director Jo-Anne Scarini has ceased to be a director of the company as of 30 May 2026. The final notice records that Scarini holds 16,129 ordinary shares in Metro Mining, with no additional indirect holdings...
Metro Mining Director Jo-Anne Scarini Resigns Amid Period of Growth
May 31, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has announced the resignation of non-executive director Jo-Anne Scarini, effective 30 May 2026, ending a tenure that began in October 2024. Scarini served as chair of the Audit and Risk Committee and sat on the People and Cult...
Metro Mining Director Increases Equity Stake via Performance Rights Grant
May 29, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has disclosed a change in the interests of director Paul Thomas Lucas, detailing an issue of additional performance rights as part of his remuneration package. The filing outlines that Lucas received 15,091 performance rights ...
Metro Mining Shifts Director Fees into Performance Rights for Douglas Ritchie
May 29, 2026
Metro Mining has disclosed a change in director Douglas Ritchie’s interests, with the issuance of 118,113 performance rights in lieu of his cash director’s fees for the 12 months to 30 June 2026. The performance rights, approved by sha...
Metro Mining Issues New Tranche of Unquoted Performance Rights
May 29, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has notified the market of the issue of 133,204 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. The new performance rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, were issued on 22 May 2026 and reflec...
Metro Mining completes 20-for-1 security consolidation
May 8, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has completed a 20-for-1 consolidation of its issued capital, following shareholder approval at its April 2026 annual meeting, reducing its ordinary fully paid shares to 307,451,347 and performance rights to 11,927,754. New po...
Metro Mining Updates Director’s Equity Interests After Share Consolidation
May 5, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has updated the disclosed holdings of director Simon Wensley following a shareholder-approved 20-for-1 consolidation of shares and performance rights. The adjustment significantly reduces the reported number of ordinary shares...
Metro Mining Lifts Bauxite Output and Restores Full Shipping Capacity at Bauxite Hills
May 5, 2026
Metro Mining reported that its Bauxite Hills Mine achieved production of 563,000 wet metric tonnes in April, a 33% year-on-year increase, despite disruptions from Tropical Cyclone Narelle and maintenance-related limits on shipping capacity. The st...
Metro Mining adjusts director’s holdings after 20-for-1 security consolidation
May 5, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has disclosed a change in director Douglas Ritchie’s relevant interests following a shareholder-approved consolidation of the company’s securities. Ritchie’s holdings, including those held via trustee Pleiade...
Metro Mining Director Holdings Adjusted After 20-for-1 Share Consolidation
May 4, 2026
Metro Mining has reported a change in the relevant interests of director Paul Thomas Lucas following a shareholder-approved consolidation of the company’s securities. His holdings were adjusted from 1,247,561 ordinary shares and 222,543 vest...
Metro Mining Adjusts Director’s Holdings After Share Consolidation
May 4, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has disclosed a change in director Jo-Anne Scarini’s relevant interest in company securities following a capital consolidation. The notice shows her holding has moved from 322,580 to 16,129 ordinary shares, with no share...
Metro Mining Adjusts Director’s Holdings After Share Consolidation
May 4, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has reported a change in director Andrew Lloyd’s relevant interests in the company’s securities, reflecting a substantial reduction in the number of ordinary shares and vested performance rights recorded under his ...
Metro Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
May 4, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 4,155,200 new ordinary fully paid shares, issued on 16 April 2026 under an employee incentive scheme. The move expands the company’s quoted capital base and reflects the use of equ...
Metro Mining Restarts Operations Early as Aluminium Market Tightens
Apr 27, 2026
Metro Mining reported an early restart of operations at its Cape York bauxite mine on 11 March 2026, following a heavy wet season and a temporary shutdown in early January, achieving a March loading record of 100 thousand WMT despite disruptions f...
Metro Mining Schedules Shareholder Webinar on March Quarter Performance
Apr 27, 2026
Metro Mining has invited its shareholders to a webinar presentation where its CEO and CFO will discuss the company’s January to March 2026 quarterly report, with the session to be held on 28 April and a recording to be made available on the ...
Metro Mining Wins Approval for 20-for-1 Share Consolidation to Streamline Capital Structure
Apr 22, 2026
Metro Mining has secured shareholder approval for a 20-for-1 share consolidation, effective 22 April 2026, reducing its 6.14 billion shares on issue to a more manageable level and applying the same ratio to performance rights. The move is aimed at...
Metro Mining Secures Shareholder Backing for Security Consolidation
Apr 22, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has confirmed that shareholders have approved a consolidation of its ordinary fully paid shares and associated performance rights on the ASX. The move follows an earlier notice and formally clears the final key condition for t...
Metro Mining shareholders back all AGM resolutions, including board incentives and share consolidation
Apr 22, 2026
Metro Mining Limited reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its 2026 Annual General Meeting were passed by poll with strong levels of support across key items. The outcomes included adoption of the remuneration report, election and r...
Metro Mining Reaffirms Bauxite Hills Reserves and Highlights Key Risks at AGM
Apr 22, 2026
Metro Mining Limited used its 2026 Annual General Meeting managing director’s presentation primarily to outline general information on its business, reserves and resources, and to restate key technical disclosures around its Bauxite Hills pr...
Metro Mining Delivers Record 2025 Profit, Launches Buyback as Bauxite Strategy Gains Traction
Apr 22, 2026
Metro Mining has reported a strong 2025 financial year, with revenue rising 23% to $378 million, net profit after tax reaching $142 million, and bauxite shipments increasing 9% to 6.2 million wet metric tonnes. The company attributed the performan...
Metro Mining Updates Bauxite Hills Ore Reserves and Resources
Apr 21, 2026
Metro Mining has updated its Ore Reserves and Mineral Resources for the Bauxite Hills Mine as at 31 December 2025, in line with the 2012 JORC Code and ASX requirements. The combined Ore Reserves stand at 69.6 million wet tonnes of direct shipping ...
Metro Mining Sets Timetable for ASX Security Consolidation
Apr 21, 2026
Metro Mining Limited has announced a security consolidation affecting its ordinary fully paid shares and performance rights, both quoted on the ASX under codes MMI and MMIAO. The consolidation follows the timetable framework set by the exchange an...
Metro Mining Restores Bauxite Hills Operations After Cyclone Narelle
Apr 6, 2026
Metro Mining reports that operations at its Bauxite Hills Mine have largely normalised after the wet season and Tropical Cyclone Narelle, which caused about seven days of lost production but no infrastructure damage. The Port of Skardon has reopen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.