Metals X Limited (MLX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$1.16B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.44M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 45.73%
• EPS Growth: 716.15%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 175
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 886,391,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,915,295
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,435,374
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.71
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$1.48
• Price Target Upside: 13.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.16
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$412.57M

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$1.50 ▲(15.38% Upside)

Score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, strong growth, low leverage, and robust cash generation). Technicals are supportive due to a clear uptrend, but overbought signals (RSI and Stochastics) temper the rating. Valuation also helps with a relatively low P/E.

Positive Factors

High profitability and revenue growth

Very high gross and EBITDA margins alongside >40% revenue growth indicate structurally efficient operations and strong pricing/operational leverage. These durable margins support sustained cash generation and reinvestment capacity, improving resilience across business cycles.

Very strong balance sheet and low leverage

Extremely low leverage and a high equity ratio provide financial flexibility for capital projects, distributions, or downturns. High ROE shows effective capital deployment. This balance sheet strength materially reduces refinancing and solvency risk over the medium term.

Robust cash generation

Substantial free cash flow growth and strong conversion of earnings to cash create durable internal funding for sustaining capex, portfolio investments, and distributions. Reliable cash conversion improves optionality and cushions commodity-driven earnings volatility.

Negative Factors

Concentrated exposure to Renison tin JV

Revenue and cash flow are concentrated in a single JV-operated tin asset where Metals X shares operational control and returns. This concentration increases exposure to asset-level disruptions, JV governance or offtake terms that can materially affect earnings predictability.

Commodity price and input cost sensitivity

Earnings and distributions are materially linked to tin market prices and vulnerable to energy, labour and consumable cost inflation. Such structural exposure can produce multi-month swings in reported income and cash available for reinvestment or payouts.

Dependence on investee performance for portfolio returns

A meaningful portion of returns comes from equity holdings and realizations outside Metals X’s direct control. Portfolio income depends on investee operating performance and timely asset monetization, making a portion of group cash flow and earnings less predictable over months.

Metals X Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Metals X Limited engages in the production of tin in Australia. The company holds a 50% interest in the Renison tin project located on the Northwest Tasmania. It also invests in companies undertaking exploration and development of tin, gold, and base metals projects. Metals X Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in South Perth, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Metals X generates revenue primarily through the sale of tin and copper concentrates from its mining operations. The company's revenue model is based on producing and selling these minerals to domestic and international markets, capitalizing on fluctuating commodity prices. Key revenue streams include contracts with smelters and traders, which provide a consistent demand for their products. Additionally, Metals X benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. The company also invests in exploration projects to expand its resource base, which can lead to increased production and revenue in the future.

Metals X Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: high profitability (net margin 46.8%, EBITDA margin 52.7%), rapid revenue growth (42.3% YoY), solid balance sheet with minimal leverage (debt-to-equity 0.014, equity ratio 84.7%), and strong cash generation (free cash flow growth 242.8%, operating cash flow to net income 1.40).

Income Statement

Metals X Limited demonstrates strong profitability with a net profit margin of 46.8% and a gross profit margin of 43.5% for 2024. The company also achieved a significant revenue growth rate of 42.3% compared to 2023. The EBIT and EBITDA margins of 42.3% and 52.7%, respectively, indicate efficient operations and cost management. These factors contribute to a high score for the income statement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Metals X Limited is robust, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.014, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 23.9%, demonstrating effective use of shareholder capital. The equity ratio is high at 84.7%, suggesting a solid financial foundation. These metrics reflect strong financial stability, contributing to a favorable balance sheet score.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement highlights strong cash generation, with a free cash flow growth rate of 242.8% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.40, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.00, illustrating effective cash flow management. These positive cash flow metrics support a high score for the cash flow statement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	271.38M	218.82M	153.78M	187.91M	228.88M	93.83M
Gross Profit	123.32M	95.26M	48.63M	87.33M	135.18M	18.69M
EBITDA	147.47M	115.32M	58.68M	95.40M	138.83M	28.67M
Net Income	140.43M	102.35M	14.59M	144.50M	183.89M	87.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	556.70M	505.03M	413.86M	355.20M	351.68M	183.40M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	230.88M	220.64M	143.04M	113.93M	122.25M	13.89M
Total Debt	3.87M	6.15M	8.36M	3.34M	3.56M	40.00M
Total Liabilities	76.26M	77.26M	58.70M	35.55M	42.00M	86.28M
Stockholders Equity	480.44M	427.77M	334.23M	319.65M	309.68M	138.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	108.11M	102.63M	29.93M	-7.28M	113.22M	-18.26M
Operating Cash Flow	145.09M	143.57M	64.86M	11.56M	150.00M	4.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-84.64M	-55.45M	-32.65M	-18.84M	-23.83M	12.69M
Financing Cash Flow	-11.21M	-10.51M	-3.10M	-1.04M	-17.39M	-17.71M

Metals X Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.30
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MLX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.23, above the 50-day MA of 1.06, and above the 200-day MA of 0.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:MLX.

Metals X Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MLX	78 Outperform	AU$1.16B	8.33	33.38%	―	45.73%	716.15%
AMI	72 Outperform	AU$524.70M	10.73	14.01%	―	10.84%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
LOT	55 Neutral	AU$720.69M	-39.87	-7.50%	―	―	51.47%
CHN	53 Neutral	AU$872.48M	-36.01	-16.67%	―	―	38.72%
MAU	53 Neutral	AU$471.25M	-31.15	-179.67%	―	-100.00%	-6.00%
SVM	52 Neutral	AU$452.86M	-10.57	-90.12%	―	―	-98.20%

Metals X Limited Corporate Events

Metals X Delivers Near Record Renison Tin Output and Strong Cash Gains in December Quarter

Metals X reported one of its strongest operational quarters at the Renison Tin Operation for the December 2025 quarter, delivering near record tin-in-concentrate production of 3,319 tonnes, record monthly output in December, improved mill recovery of 82.34% and a sharp reduction in C1 cash costs to A$16,598 per tonne. These operational gains, combined with higher tin prices, drove imputed EBITDA on a 100% basis to A$112.5 million and boosted EBITDA margins to about 58%, while Ore Reserve upgrades confirmed over 102,000 tonnes of contained tin and contributed to a rising cash position of A$293.6 million plus increased tin receivables, reinforcing the asset’s longevity and cash generation. The company also maintained its strategic exposure to future tin supply by participating in equity raisings for Elementos and First Tin, progressed mine closure planning at Mt Bischoff, and executed ongoing safety and workforce initiatives at Renison, although safety metrics were mixed, highlighting continued focus on ESG performance and operational leadership changes within the Bluestone Mines Tasmania JV.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MLX) stock is a Buy with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals X Limited stock, see the AU:MLX Stock Forecast page.

Metals X Advances Rentails Tin Tailings Project With FEED Contract Award

Metals X Limited has announced that the Bluestone Mines Tasmania Joint Venture has awarded the Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) contract for the proposed Rentails concentrator at the Renison tin operation in Tasmania to GR Engineering Services Limited. The scope covers FEED for a new tailings reprocessing facility with a capacity of 2.4 million tonnes per annum and a lump-sum construction offer, with FEED completion targeted for the third quarter of 2026 and a final investment decision expected later that year. The step advances the Rentails Tailings Retreatment Project, which, alongside strong mine reserves at Renison, is positioned to expand tin production and underpin Renison’s status as a significant global tin producer, signalling potential long-term benefits for Metals X and its joint venture stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MLX) stock is a Buy with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals X Limited stock, see the AU:MLX Stock Forecast page.

Metals X Limited Relocates Principal Office to South Perth

Metals X Limited has announced a change in its registered office and principal place of business to a new location in South Perth, Western Australia. This move is part of the company’s ongoing operational adjustments, although contact details such as the telephone number remain unchanged. The relocation may have implications for the company’s operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MLX) stock is a Buy with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals X Limited stock, see the AU:MLX Stock Forecast page.

Metals X Limited Reinforces Stake in First Tin Plc with Share Placement Participation

Metals X Limited announced its participation in a share placement by First Tin Plc, a company in which it holds a 29.91% stake. First Tin is raising £6.3 million through a private placement of new shares, and Metals X has committed to subscribing for a portion of these shares to maintain its interest at 29.95%. This move reflects Metals X’s strategic focus on maintaining its investment in the tin sector, potentially impacting its market position and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MLX) stock is a Buy with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals X Limited stock, see the AU:MLX Stock Forecast page.

Metals X Limited Boosts Investment in Elementos Capital Raise

Metals X Limited has announced its participation in Elementos Limited’s capital raising initiative, which aims to generate up to A$11.6 million through a private placement and entitlement offer. Metals X is committed to investing A$550,315 in the entitlement offer and up to A$2,716,353 in the placement, contingent on other shareholders’ participation, maintaining their interest below 19.99% of Elementos’ expanded capital. This strategic move is expected to strengthen Metals X’s investment portfolio and influence in the tin market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MLX) stock is a Buy with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals X Limited stock, see the AU:MLX Stock Forecast page.

Metals X Updates Renison Tin Reserve, Projects Over 10-Year Mine Life

Metals X Limited has announced an update to the Ore Reserve estimate for its Renison Tin Operations, revealing a decrease in both total reserve ore tonnes and contained tin over the past year. Despite this, the mine’s life is projected to be over 10 years, with continued exploration efforts expected to further extend its longevity. The inclusion of the Ringrose orebody into the resource inventory and ongoing drilling programs highlight the company’s commitment to maintaining its position as a significant global tin producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MLX) stock is a Buy with a A$1.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metals X Limited stock, see the AU:MLX Stock Forecast page.