Chalice Mining (CHN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$751.73M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.28
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 38.72%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 19
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 389,499,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,369,228
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,257,418
• PEG Ratio: 0.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -35.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$3.05
• Price Target Upside: 58.03% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$26.35K

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$2.00 ▲(3.63% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/04/26

The score is held back primarily by weak operating fundamentals—minimal revenue, ongoing losses, and negative free cash flow—partly offset by a low-debt balance sheet. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages and positive momentum, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Very low leverage materially reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk, giving Chalice structural financial flexibility to fund exploration and development phases without heavy debt service. This conservatism supports optionality and preserves runway for project milestones over months to years.

Reduced cash burn in FY2025

A material narrowing of cash outflows in FY2025 signals improving operational cash discipline and lower near-term funding needs. Sustained reduction in burn-rate increases probability of advancing projects with less frequent capital raises, improving execution visibility over the next 2–6 months.

Focus on critical minerals (Julimar)

Concentration on nickel, copper and PGEs at Julimar aligns the business with long-term structural demand drivers (electrification, batteries, industrial catalysts). That strategic positioning enhances project optionality for JV, offtake or strategic partners as global demand for these inputs remains elevated.

Negative Factors

No recurring revenue

Absence of operating revenue means Chalice remains at exploration stage with no earnings cushion; ongoing losses reduce internal funding capacity. Over the medium term this leaves the company reliant on external capital and makes sustainable profitability contingent on successful project development.

Persistent negative cash flow

Repeated negative operating and free cash flow creates structural dependence on capital markets to fund drilling, studies and permitting. This elevates dilution risk and constrains the firm's ability to self-fund timely project advancement, especially if market access tightens.

Erosion of equity value

Declining equity and persistent negative ROE indicate shareholder value erosion from ongoing losses and cash burn. Over a 2–6 month horizon this weakens balance-sheet resilience and can limit non-dilutive financing options, increasing reliance on equity issuance to fund growth.

Chalice Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chalice Mining Limited operates as a mineral exploration and evaluation company. The company explores for gold, copper, cobalt, palladium, platinum group element, and nickel deposits. Its flagship properties include the Julimar Nickel-Copper-Platinum group element project that covers an area of approximately 740 square kilometers located in Avon Region, Western Australia; and the Barrabarra Nickel -Copper- Platinum group element project located in Geraldton. It also holds interest in Hawkstone Nickel-Copper-Cobalt project located in Kimberley and South West Nickel-Copper- Platinum group element project located in Perth, Western Australia. Chalice Mining Limited was incorporated in 2005 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Chalice Mining makes money through the discovery, development, and eventual sale or partnership of its mineral resources. The company generates revenue by increasing the value of its mineral projects through exploration and development, which can lead to joint ventures, asset sales, or production agreements with larger mining companies. Additionally, Chalice Mining may receive funding through equity financing from institutional and retail investors, which supports its exploration activities. Key partnerships or joint ventures with other mining companies can also contribute to its earnings by sharing exploration costs and accelerating project development.

Chalice Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financials are weak: minimal/no revenue and ongoing losses (income statement score 12) plus continued cash burn despite FY2025 improvement (cash flow score 20). The main offset is very low leverage and a relatively strong balance sheet (score 74), which reduces financial risk but does not solve profitability/cash generation.

Income Statement

The income statement is weak, reflecting an early-stage/mining-exploration profile with minimal to no revenue (FY2025 revenue is 0 vs. very small revenue in prior years) and persistent, sizable losses. Profitability remains deeply negative across the period, though the net loss narrowed meaningfully in FY2025 versus FY2024. The key drawback is the lack of a consistent revenue base and continued negative earnings, which limits visibility on a path to sustainable profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength. Leverage is very low (debt-to-equity ~1–2% in recent years), suggesting limited balance-sheet financial risk. However, returns on equity are consistently negative due to ongoing net losses, and equity has trended down from FY2023 to FY2025—highlighting continued value erosion despite the conservative capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow quality is pressured by consistently negative operating cash flow and negative free cash flow each year, indicating ongoing cash burn. There is improvement in FY2025 (cash outflows are materially smaller than FY2024), but free cash flow growth remains negative in FY2025, and the business is still funding operations without internally generated cash. The main positive is that free cash flow broadly tracks reported losses (i.e., losses are not being masked by favorable working-capital timing).

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	118.00K	181.00K	634.00K	520.00K
Gross Profit	-534.00K	118.00K	181.00K	-37.00K	246.00K
EBITDA	-21.60M	-43.74M	-65.81M	-64.85M	-45.95M
Net Income	-24.21M	-39.50M	-65.60M	-18.30M	-43.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	135.98M	170.67M	199.06M	186.78M	162.66M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	77.76M	111.03M	148.18M	134.53M	115.45M
Total Debt	1.88M	2.11M	1.73M	2.14M	349.00K
Total Liabilities	6.56M	7.88M	12.01M	10.45M	13.44M
Stockholders Equity	129.42M	162.79M	187.05M	176.33M	149.22M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-17.99M	-48.66M	-60.37M	-69.65M	-59.65M
Operating Cash Flow	-17.76M	-44.09M	-59.93M	-61.80M	-37.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-116.00K	-11.58M	-826.00K	-3.45M	-20.26M
Financing Cash Flow	-241.00K	-596.00K	74.28M	96.93M	112.03M

Chalice Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.93
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CHN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.92, below the 50-day MA of 2.13, and above the 200-day MA of 1.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:CHN.

Chalice Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MLX	82 Outperform	AU$1.27B	12.12	33.38%	―	45.73%	716.15%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ARU	54 Neutral	AU$1.21B	-61.90	-13.10%	―	―	82.10%
CHN	53 Neutral	AU$751.73M	-31.03	-16.67%	―	―	38.72%
SVM	52 Neutral	AU$559.60M	-13.07	-90.12%	―	―	-98.20%
MAU	49 Neutral	AU$593.86M	-39.26	-179.67%	―	-100.00%	-6.00%
LOT	48 Neutral	AU$595.26M	-28.63	-7.50%	―	―	51.47%

Chalice Mining Corporate Events

State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Chalice Mining

State Street Corporation and several of its subsidiaries, including State Street Bank and Trust Company and State Street Global Advisors Australia, have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be substantial holders in Chalice Mining as of 5 February 2026. The change reflects adjustments in relevant interests and voting power tied to collateral movements and securities holdings, signaling a reduction in a major institutional investor’s influence over Chalice Mining’s share register and potentially altering the company’s institutional ownership profile.

The notice details multiple transactions dated 4 February 2026 involving collateral received and changes in ordinary share counts, culminating in a net decrease of voting securities attributed to State Street entities. While no consideration was recorded for these changes, the filing formalizes the end of State Street’s substantial holding status, a development that may be closely watched by the market for its implications on liquidity, governance dynamics, and future investor composition in Chalice Mining.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CHN) stock is a Sell with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chalice Mining stock, see the AU:CHN Stock Forecast page.

Chalice Mining Announces Lapse of Options and Performance Rights

Chalice Mining Limited has notified the market of the cessation of certain equity-linked securities, including 335,541 options expiring in August 2028 with an exercise price of $2.60 and 692,605 performance rights, after the conditions attached to these instruments were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 30 January 2026. The lapsing of these options and performance rights reduces the company’s potential future issued capital, signalling that specific performance or vesting milestones tied to these incentives were not achieved, which may slightly alter future dilution expectations for existing shareholders but does not immediately affect the company’s current capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CHN) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chalice Mining stock, see the AU:CHN Stock Forecast page.

Chalice Mining Locks In Robust Economics for Gonneville as Low-Cost PGM-Nickel Project Advances

Chalice Mining reported a cash and listed investments position of about A$71.3 million with no debt at the end of December 2025 and a modest monthly expenditure rate, indicating it is funded through to a planned Final Investment Decision on its Gonneville Project in the first half of 2028. During the quarter, the company completed a pre-feasibility study and defined a maiden ore reserve for the 23-year open-pit phase at Gonneville, outlining robust economics, a diversified revenue stream and a globally competitive low-cost profile that would make it Australia’s first primary PGM mine and the country’s second-largest nickel mine, while higher prevailing metal prices and a substantial remaining resource below the pit shell underscore significant upside for future cash flows and financing options.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CHN) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chalice Mining stock, see the AU:CHN Stock Forecast page.

Chalice Mining MD Alexander Dorsch Sells 1.5 Million Shares at $2.30

Chalice Mining has disclosed a change in the indirect shareholding of Managing Director Alexander Carl Dorsch, who has sold 1.5 million fully paid ordinary shares at $2.30 per share. The transaction, involving securities held via trust, superannuation, and a margin loan custody arrangement, represents a significant adjustment to Dorsch’s equity exposure in the company and is formally reported to the market under director interest change requirements, providing transparency for investors and other stakeholders regarding insider holdings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CHN) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chalice Mining stock, see the AU:CHN Stock Forecast page.

State Street Subsidiary Drops Below Substantial Holder Threshold in Chalice Mining

Chalice Mining Limited has disclosed that a subsidiary of US-based financial services group State Street Corporation has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 15 January 2026. The change in substantial holding, detailed in a Form 605 filing, reflects a series of collateral movements in Chalice Mining ordinary shares managed by State Street Bank and Trust Company and related entities, reducing their voting interest below the substantial holder threshold and slightly altering the company’s institutional shareholder profile without signalling any direct change to Chalice’s underlying operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CHN) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chalice Mining stock, see the AU:CHN Stock Forecast page.

Chalice Mining Reports Lapse of Options and Performance Rights

Chalice Mining Limited has notified the market of the cessation of certain equity-linked securities, involving the lapse of 38,568 options expiring 26 August 2028 with an exercise price of $2.60 and 32,454 performance rights. The securities lapsed after the conditions attached to these instruments were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 13 November 2025, resulting in a reduction of potential future dilution in the company’s capital structure for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CHN) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chalice Mining stock, see the AU:CHN Stock Forecast page.

Chalice Mining Issues New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities

Chalice Mining Limited has notified the ASX of the issue of a total of 118,561 ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted securities. The new shares, issued on 7 and 8 January 2026, represent a minor increase in the company’s equity capital base and reflect the ongoing conversion of unquoted options or other convertible instruments into listed ordinary shares, marginally broadening the company’s free float and aligning holders of those instruments more closely with ordinary shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CHN) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chalice Mining stock, see the AU:CHN Stock Forecast page.

Chalice Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for Shares Issued Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Chalice Mining Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 394,140 new fully paid ordinary shares issued on 6 January 2026. The shares have been issued to CPU Share Plans Pty Limited as trustee for the Chalice Mining Share Trust to satisfy future exercises of vested FY2022–23 Retention Rights under the company’s employee incentive scheme, reflecting ongoing utilisation of equity-based remuneration without indicating any immediate capital-raising initiative for external investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CHN) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chalice Mining stock, see the AU:CHN Stock Forecast page.

Chalice Mining Director Increases Stake with New Share Acquisition

Chalice Mining Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Richard Hacker. On December 10, 2025, Mr. Hacker acquired 59,862 fully paid ordinary shares valued at $99,566.34. This change reflects the director’s increased stake in the company, which could signal confidence in Chalice Mining’s future prospects and potentially impact investor perception positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CHN) stock is a Hold with a A$1.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chalice Mining stock, see the AU:CHN Stock Forecast page.

Chalice Mining Restores Compliance with ASX Governance Standards

Chalice Mining Limited has announced an update regarding its compliance with ASX Listing Rule 12.7. The company had previously been non-compliant due to having a non-independent chair of its Audit Committee. To rectify this, Chalice has appointed Garret Dixon, an independent non-executive director, as the new chair, bringing the company back into compliance with ASX corporate governance standards. This change ensures the Audit Committee is composed of only non-executive directors, a majority of whom are independent, with an independent chairperson who is not the chairperson of the board, and at least three members.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CHN) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chalice Mining stock, see the AU:CHN Stock Forecast page.

Chalice Mining Hosts Investor Conference on Gonneville Project PFS

Chalice Mining Limited announced a live investor conference call and webcast to discuss the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) results for its Gonneville Project. The event, led by Managing Director and CEO Alex Dorsch, aims to provide insights into the project’s progress and implications for stakeholders, highlighting the company’s strategic positioning in the mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CHN) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chalice Mining stock, see the AU:CHN Stock Forecast page.

Chalice Mining Advances Gonneville Project with Pre-Feasibility Study

Chalice Mining has announced the completion of a Pre-Feasibility Study for its Gonneville Palladium-Nickel-Copper Project in Western Australia, highlighting its potential as a globally significant critical minerals mine. The study is based on a high percentage of Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources, with a small portion of Inferred Resources, indicating promising prospects for the project’s development and its impact on the company’s operations and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CHN) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chalice Mining stock, see the AU:CHN Stock Forecast page.