Aurelia Metals (AMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$533.16M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.9
• Beta (1Y): 2.07
• Revenue Growth: 10.84%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: 57
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 1,692,572,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,986,409
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,315,777
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.94
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$0.42
• Price Target Upside: 31.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$426.78M

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$0.34 ▲(7.50% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/31/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/31/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (better margins, positive profitability, strong cash generation, and conservative leverage). Technicals also support the outlook with an established uptrend and positive momentum indicators, while valuation is supportive due to a modest P/E but limited by the absence of dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Aurelia's very strong free cash flow growth (90.73%) and OCF/net income of 2.66 indicate durable internal cash generation. This enhances the firm's ability to fund sustaining and development capex, service obligations, and absorb commodity shocks without frequent external financing.

Improved profitability and margins

Material margin improvements across gross, EBIT and EBITDA reflect better cost control and operational efficiency. Sustained higher margins provide a structural buffer to commodity price swings, support reinvestment in mines, and improve medium-term free cash flow visibility.

Conservative balance sheet

Extremely low leverage and a strong equity base give Aurelia financial flexibility to fund projects, pursue opportunistic M&A, and withstand cyclical downturns. A solid ROE of 13.47% shows effective equity use while limiting refinancing and liquidity risk.

Negative Factors

Revenue and profit volatility

The company's history of revenue and profit swings reduces predictability of cash flows and complicates medium-term planning. Persistent volatility can hinder consistent capital allocation, increase working capital strain, and raise execution risk for growth initiatives.

Commodity price exposure

Aurelia's core earnings derive from gold, silver and base metal sales, making revenues and margins structurally sensitive to commodity cycles. This external dependence can produce multi-month earnings volatility and constrain long-term investment predictability.

High market sensitivity (Beta)

A beta above 2 implies elevated stock and earnings sensitivity to broader market and commodity moves. Structurally higher volatility raises the cost of equity, can impede capital raising in downturns, and increases the execution risk of financing and expansion plans.

Aurelia Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aurelia Metals Limited explores for and develops mineral properties in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, lead, zinc, and copper deposits. It owns 100% interests in the Hera mine located to the south-east of Cobar, New South Wales; and the Peak mine situated in the northern part of the Cobar Basin, New South Wales, as well as the Dargues mine located in southeastern New South Wales. The company was formerly known as YTC Resources Limited and changed its name to Aurelia Metals Limited in June 2014. Aurelia Metals Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Aurelia Metals generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold, silver, and base metals extracted from its mining operations. The company employs a revenue model based on the production and sale of these minerals, which are sold to various industrial buyers and traders in the commodities market. Key revenue streams include the sale of concentrates and doré bars, which are produced from the processing of ore at its mining facilities. Additionally, AMI may benefit from partnerships with other mining companies and traders, as well as from joint ventures that enhance its operational capacity and market reach. The company's financial performance is also influenced by fluctuations in commodity prices, operational efficiencies, and its ability to manage costs effectively.

Aurelia Metals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows improving profitability (net margin 14.22%, EBIT margin 21.44%) and modest revenue growth (5.68%), supported by strong cash flow metrics (FCF growth 90.73% and OCF-to-net income 2.66). Balance sheet leverage is conservative (debt-to-equity 0.024), but historical volatility in revenue/profitability and equity/assets tempers the score.

Income Statement

Aurelia Metals has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 5.68% in the latest year, recovering from previous declines. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 24.96%, indicating better cost management. The net profit margin turned positive at 14.22%, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved to 21.44% and 31.00%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. However, past volatility in revenue and profit margins suggests potential risks.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.024, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity improved to 13.47%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 66.27%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets. Despite these strengths, the company has experienced fluctuations in equity and asset levels, which could pose risks.

Cash Flow

Aurelia Metals demonstrated a robust free cash flow growth rate of 90.73%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.66, suggesting efficient conversion of income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.28, showing a healthy cash flow relative to profits. These metrics highlight strong cash flow management, though past fluctuations in free cash flow growth should be monitored.

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	343.47M	309.89M	369.20M	438.81M	416.48M
Gross Profit	85.71M	27.66M	-34.07M	19.10M	106.56M
EBITDA	106.45M	75.51M	33.84M	31.01M	154.38M
Net Income	48.85M	-5.73M	-52.22M	-81.69M	42.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	547.53M	472.52M	444.40M	562.25M	656.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	110.09M	116.50M	38.95M	76.69M	74.53M
Total Debt	8.58M	7.93M	12.69M	45.49M	47.38M
Total Liabilities	184.83M	155.67M	134.57M	225.32M	235.17M
Stockholders Equity	362.70M	316.85M	309.82M	336.93M	421.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	13.68M	17.72M	-590.00K	48.84M	49.57M
Operating Cash Flow	129.67M	100.63M	45.86M	154.09M	136.64M
Investing Cash Flow	-136.35M	-32.53M	-77.37M	-131.46M	-285.39M
Financing Cash Flow	-637.00K	9.15M	-6.77M	-20.17M	144.87M

Aurelia Metals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.32
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.31, above the 50-day MA of 0.29, and above the 200-day MA of 0.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:AMI.

Aurelia Metals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MLX	78 Outperform	AU$1.23B	8.97	33.38%	―	45.73%	716.15%
JMS	77 Outperform	AU$570.10M	14.46	7.01%	5.45%	16.86%	3.03%
AMI	72 Outperform	AU$533.16M	10.90	14.01%	―	10.84%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SVM	52 Neutral	AU$533.72M	-13.52	-90.12%	―	―	-98.20%
MMI	51 Neutral	AU$384.98M	2.81	145.87%	―	45.56%	―
LOT	48 Neutral	AU$597.98M	-29.28	-7.50%	―	―	51.47%

Aurelia Metals Corporate Events

Aurelia Metals CEO to Step Down as Miner Advances Growth Projects

Aurelia Metals has announced that Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Bryan Quinn will step down in July 2026, remaining with the company in the interim to ensure a smooth leadership transition and to maintain momentum on key initiatives, including the Peak Process Plant expansion, development of the Great Cobar project and refinancing of the balance sheet. The Board has commenced a search for a new CEO to lead the company’s next growth phase, while confirming that recruitment of a new Non‑Executive Chair is well advanced, with the Peak plant already running near its 800ktpa capacity and expansion projects progressing toward a 1.1–1.2mtpa throughput target, positioning Aurelia for its next stage of operational and strategic growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Issues Risk-Focused December Quarter Update

Aurelia Metals has released its December 2025 quarterly update presentation, outlining its recent operating and financial performance under International Financial Reporting Standards and highlighting additional non-IFRS metrics such as EBITDA. The company stresses that the document is informational only, contains forward-looking statements subject to significant risks and uncertainties, and should not be treated as an offer or solicitation to invest, urging stakeholders and potential investors to conduct their own analysis and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Delivers Strong Cash Flow as Growth Projects Advance on Schedule

Aurelia Metals reported a strong December quarter, with group production of 11.7koz of gold, 0.6kt of copper, 7.2kt of zinc and 4.3kt of lead, driving Cobar region operating cash flow to $42.9m and maintaining a solid cash balance of $85.6m despite significant spending on growth projects, tax and performance bonding. Management reaffirmed FY26 production, cost and capital guidance, with gold output tracking toward the upper end of the range, as the Federation Mine ramp-up continues ahead of plan with higher ore grades, the Peak processing plant runs near capacity with high metal recoveries, and the Great Cobar mine development and Peak plant expansion progress on schedule to increase throughput to 1.1–1.2Mtpa in the first half of FY27, positioning the company for higher copper-equivalent production and stronger shareholder returns, albeit against a backdrop of increased safety incidents being actively addressed.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Confirms Lapse of 2.49 Million Performance Rights

Aurelia Metals Limited has announced the cessation of 2,490,580 performance rights, which lapsed after the underlying conditions for conversion into securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 9 January 2026. The lapse of these conditional rights reduces the company’s pool of potential equity-based instruments, implying no resultant share dilution for existing shareholders and reflecting performance or vesting hurdles that were not achieved under the relevant incentive arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Advances Nymagee Exploration with Promising Drilling Results

Aurelia Metals has announced significant advancements in its exploration program at the historical Nymagee Mine in New South Wales, identifying extensions in Nymagee North, Metropolitan lens, and Nymagee Main. Drilling results demonstrate polymetallic mineralization with promising grades and indicate future growth potential, particularly in the Nymagee North and Lazer lenses. These findings strengthen the company’s position in defining resources for future mine development, bolstering its operations and prospects in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Announces Director Departure and Shareholding Details

Aurelia Metals Limited has announced the cessation of Franklyn Roger Brazil as a director, effective December 16, 2025. The notice highlights that Brazil holds significant shares in the company through Brazil Farming Pty Ltd and Anchorfield Pty Ltd as trustee for the Brazil Family Foundation. This change in directorship may impact the company’s governance structure and could have implications for its strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Announces Director Resignation

Aurelia Metals announced the resignation of Mr. Lyn Brazil as a Non-Executive Director, effective immediately. Mr. Brazil’s departure also ends Mr. Brad Newcombe’s role as his alternate director, while Ms. Rachel Brown continues as a nominee director of Brazil Farming Pty Ltd on the board. The company acknowledged Mr. Brazil’s contributions since joining in July 2023, with Interim Chair Bruce Cox expressing appreciation for his support and contribution over the past two and a half years.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Director Increases Performance Rights

Aurelia Metals Limited announced a change in the interest of its director, Bryan Quinn, who has acquired an additional 3,528,823 performance rights following shareholder approval at the recent AGM. This change reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning management incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s strategic direction and performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Issues Performance Rights to Employees

Aurelia Metals Limited announced the issuance of 3,528,823 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and subject to transfer restrictions, indicating a strategic move to incentivize and retain employees, potentially impacting the company’s operational efficiency and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Issues Performance Rights to Employees

Aurelia Metals Limited has announced the issuance of 15,156,155 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are subject to transfer restrictions and are not listed on the ASX until the restrictions are lifted, potentially impacting employee retention and motivation strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Announces Cessation of Performance Rights

Aurelia Metals Limited announced the cessation of 716,319 performance rights due to the conditions for these securities not being met or becoming incapable of being satisfied. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for its financial strategy and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Announces Interim Leadership Changes

Aurelia Metals has announced a temporary leadership change, with Mr. Bruce Cox stepping down as Chair of the Audit Committee while serving as Interim Non-Executive Chair. Mr. Bob Vassie has been appointed as Interim Chair of the Audit Committee during this period, with a permanent Chair to be announced later.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Announces Leadership Changes

Aurelia Metals Limited has announced the appointment of Mr. Bruce Cox as Interim Non-Executive Chair following the retirement of Mr. Peter Botten. The company is actively searching for a permanent Chair while Mr. Martin Cummings has been appointed as joint Company Secretary alongside Ms. Rochelle Carey. These changes are part of the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its leadership and ensure effective communication with the ASX.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Secures Shareholder Approval for Key Resolutions at AGM

Aurelia Metals Limited announced the successful passing of all resolutions at its 2025 Annual General Meeting. The resolutions, which were approved by a poll, include the adoption of the remuneration report, the re-election of Bruce Cox, the election of Rachel Brown, and the approval to issue rights to the Managing Director/CEO. This outcome reflects strong shareholder support and is likely to positively impact the company’s governance and strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Highlights Risks and Outlook at 2025 AGM

Aurelia Metals Limited held its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where the Managing Director and CEO presented the company’s current position and future outlook. The presentation highlighted the inherent risks in the mining sector and the company’s exposure to economic and operational uncertainties. Stakeholders are advised to consider these factors when evaluating the company’s performance and potential investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Reports Strong FY25 Performance and Leadership Transition

Aurelia Metals announced significant progress in FY25, returning to profitability and maintaining a debt-free balance sheet with over $146M in liquidity. The company has made strides in its Cobar Basin Optimisation projects, aiming to become a substantial copper producer by FY28. With a focus on safety and sustainability, Aurelia reduced its Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate by over 50% and continued to align its strategic direction with disciplined growth and productivity optimization. The leadership transition was also highlighted, with Bruce Cox stepping in as Interim Chair.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.