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Aurelia Metals Limited (AU:AMI)
ASX:AMI

Aurelia Metals (AMI) AI Stock Analysis

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AU

Aurelia Metals

(Sydney:AMI)

Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.00
▼(-100.00%Downside)
Aurelia Metals' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its mixed financial performance and bearish technical indicators. The company faces significant profitability challenges, with ongoing net losses and revenue declines. Technical analysis shows a downtrend with oversold indicators, suggesting negative market sentiment. Valuation concerns further weigh on the score, as the P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation.

Aurelia Metals (AMI) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Aurelia Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAurelia Metals Limited explores for and develops mineral properties in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, lead, zinc, and copper deposits. It owns 100% interests in the Hera mine located to the south-east of Cobar, New South Wales; and the Peak mine situated in the northern part of the Cobar Basin, New South Wales, as well as the Dargues mine located in southeastern New South Wales. The company was formerly known as YTC Resources Limited and changed its name to Aurelia Metals Limited in June 2014. Aurelia Metals Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAurelia Metals Limited generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold and other base metals extracted from its mining operations. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of gold, copper, lead, zinc, and silver concentrates to various buyers, including smelters and commodity traders. Aurelia Metals operates under long-term offtake agreements and spot market sales, which provide a stable revenue base while allowing flexibility to capitalize on favorable market conditions. Additionally, the company may engage in hedging activities to manage commodity price risks and enhance financial stability. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures may also contribute to the company's earnings, particularly in exploration and development projects.

Aurelia Metals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -6.98%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call conveyed a generally positive outlook with strong operational performance, cash flow, and exploration results. However, challenges such as weather impacts on projects and inflationary pressures were noted.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Cash Position
Total cash on hand grew to $116.5 million, with total liquidity now over $150 million, largely driven by strong cash flow from Peak and Dargues.
Operational Performance
Peak mine had a strong finish to the quarter with over $25 million of cash flow, contributing to $37 million for the year. Dargues also performed well with $10.2 million in cash flow for the quarter.
Exceptional Exploration Results
Exploration results at Federation were exceptional, with high-grade mineralization and promising assays. This opens up potential for further exploration and development.
Improved Safety Performance
Safety performance improved with fewer injuries this quarter, although it remains a focus area for further improvement.
Operational Cost Reductions
Mining unit costs per tonne reduced from $134 to $120 per tonne from the previous quarter.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Weather and Water Management
The Federation project experienced delays due to heavy rainfall impacting water management and site operations. This led to paused underground works and challenges in ore drive development.
Inflationary Pressures
Inflation pressures affected project costs, particularly in labor, diesel, and equipment hire, drawing down some of the contingency budget.
Injury Incidents
Despite improvements, the company still reported injuries, emphasizing the need for continued focus on safety protocols.
Company Guidance
During the Q4 2024 earnings call for Aurelia Metals Limited, the company provided several key metrics and guidance for the upcoming fiscal year. They confirmed that FY '24 production costs met guidance and highlighted operational improvements, particularly from the Cobar regional team. The Federation project is on track for first ore in late Q1 FY '25, and the company reported exceptional exploration results. Safety performance improved with fewer injuries this quarter. Operational updates included an 18% increase in mined ore to 175,000 tonnes and a reduction in mining unit costs from $134 to $120 per tonne. The all-in sustaining cost for the June quarter was $1,277 per ounce, with a full-year figure of $2,035, aligning with annual guidance. Cash on hand grew to $116.5 million, and the company plans to provide more detailed FY '25 guidance and project updates in late August.

Aurelia Metals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Aurelia Metals shows a mixed financial performance. While the balance sheet remains robust with low leverage, the income statement reflects ongoing profitability challenges. Cash flow management has improved, but sustainability is questionable due to recurring net losses and revenue declines.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows significant volatility in profitability. Gross profit margin improved to 30.9% in 2024 from negative levels in 2023, indicating recovery. However, net profit margin remains negative due to net losses. Revenue shows a declining trend, down by 16% from 2023 to 2024, reflecting operational challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins improved, but overall profitability remains weak.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet is relatively strong with an equity ratio of 67.1% in 2024, suggesting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.025, reflecting conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative due to net losses, indicating inefficiencies in generating profits from equity.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with operating cash flow to net income ratio significantly positive, indicating strong cash earnings. Free cash flow turned positive in 2024, showing improved cash management, though growth remains uncertain. Free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, but net income losses still pose a risk to cash flow sustainability.
BreakdownTTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue325.02M309.89M369.20M438.81M416.48M331.82M
Gross Profit51.29M33.57M-34.07M19.10M106.56M71.16M
EBITDA93.06M75.51M33.84M31.01M154.38M104.24M
Net Income14.25M-5.73M-52.22M-81.69M42.92M29.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets486.58M472.52M444.40M562.25M656.46M343.78M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments96.65M116.50M38.95M76.69M74.53M79.10M
Total Debt8.28M7.93M12.69M44.35M46.28M13.54M
Total Liabilities157.23M155.67M134.57M225.32M235.17M108.87M
Stockholders Equity329.35M316.85M309.82M336.93M421.29M234.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.17M17.72M-590.00K48.84M49.57M24.91M
Operating Cash Flow119.41M100.63M45.86M154.09M136.64M110.53M
Investing Cash Flow-71.68M-32.53M-77.37M-131.46M-285.39M-112.04M
Financing Cash Flow-61.11M9.15M-6.77M-20.17M144.87M-23.69M

Aurelia Metals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.20
Price Trends
50DMA
0.29
Negative
100DMA
0.26
Negative
200DMA
0.22
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Positive
RSI
22.03
Positive
STOCH
6.23
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.29, below the 50-day MA of 0.29, and below the 200-day MA of 0.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.03 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AMI.

Aurelia Metals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AUAMI
49
Neutral
$330.05M23.214.44%0.39%
44
Neutral
C$958.62M-6.68-13.31%2.80%17.55%-32.28%
$249.40M8.398.40%8.11%
$314.13M4.9427.43%
AUMMI
53
Neutral
AU$371.99M-87.03%30.32%-22.58%
AULOT
48
Neutral
AU$450.27M-15.51%-129.85%
AUSVM
42
Neutral
AU$423.74M-77.74%-654.93%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:AMI
Aurelia Metals
0.20
0.01
5.41%
JMXXF
Jupiter Mines Limited
0.12
-0.08
-40.00%
MLXEF
Metals X Limited
0.34
0.03
9.68%
AU:SVM
Sovereign Metals Limited
0.68
0.10
17.24%
AU:MMI
Metro Mining Limited
0.06
<0.01
20.00%
AU:LOT
Lotus Resources Limited
0.19
-0.13
-40.63%

Aurelia Metals Corporate Events

Aurelia Metals Investor Day Highlights Future Plans and Risks
Jun 18, 2025

Aurelia Metals Limited held an Investor Day on June 19, 2025, where it presented information about its operations and future plans. The presentation included forward-looking statements and non-IFRS financial information, emphasizing the inherent risks in the mining sector. Investors were advised to conduct their own analysis before making investment decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.27 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Unveils FY26 Guidance and Future Outlook
Jun 18, 2025

Aurelia Metals has released its FY26 production, cost, and capital guidance, along with an aspirational outlook for FY27 and FY28. The company plans to increase its mining activities, particularly at the Peak and New Cobar mines, with a focus on achieving commercial production at the Federation mine by July 2025. This strategic expansion is expected to enhance the company’s operational capacity and financial performance, benefiting stakeholders through increased cash flow and revenue generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.27 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals to Outline Strategic Growth at Investor Day
Jun 18, 2025

Aurelia Metals Limited is set to host an investor day on 19 June 2025, where senior leaders will present the company’s strategy and future growth opportunities. The event will include production, operating cost, and capital guidance for FY26, along with an outlook for FY27 and FY28, potentially impacting the company’s operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.27 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Cautions Investors in Latest Quarterly Update
Apr 22, 2025

Aurelia Metals Limited has released its quarterly update, cautioning investors about the inherent risks associated with its operations and the forward-looking nature of its statements. The company emphasizes that its projections are subject to uncertainties and advises potential investors to conduct their own analysis before making investment decisions.

Aurelia Metals Reports Strong Q1 Performance and Approves Great Cobar Project
Apr 22, 2025

Aurelia Metals Limited reported strong operational performance in the March quarter of 2025, with significant cash flow generation from its Peak operations, which more than doubled compared to the previous quarter. The company has approved the Great Cobar Project, which is expected to enhance its copper production from 2028, and continues to ramp up development at the Federation Mine. The company’s financial position has strengthened with increased cash reserves, and it remains focused on safely achieving its FY25 guidance targets while advancing its growth agenda in the Cobar region.

Aurelia Metals to Release March Quarter Results and Host Investor Call
Apr 17, 2025

Aurelia Metals Limited has announced that its March Quarter results for the period ending 31 March 2025 will be released before the ASX opens on 23 April 2025. A conference call hosted by key company executives will follow the release, providing stakeholders with insights into the company’s performance and future prospects. This announcement underscores Aurelia’s commitment to transparency and engagement with its investors, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

Aurelia Metals Unveils Promising Drilling Results at Federation Deposit
Apr 16, 2025

Aurelia Metals Limited has announced significant progress in its exploration program at the Federation West offset discovery within the Federation deposit. The recent drilling results have revealed high-grade mineralization, including substantial zinc, lead, and copper concentrations. These findings suggest the potential for expanding the Federation deposit with readily mineable resources, prompting the company to extend its exploration efforts beyond the initial budget for the remainder of the fiscal year 2025.

Aurelia Metals Secures Approval for Great Cobar Project
Apr 16, 2025

Aurelia Metals Limited has announced the approval of its Great Cobar Project, with details to be lodged with the ASX. This development is expected to enhance the company’s operations and strengthen its position in the mining industry, particularly in the Cobar Basin. Stakeholders can anticipate potential growth and increased market presence as the project progresses.

Aurelia Metals Greenlights Great Cobar Project to Boost Copper Production
Apr 16, 2025

Aurelia Metals Limited has approved the development of the Great Cobar Project, which is set to enhance its Peak operation by targeting an 8-year mine life with significant copper, gold, and silver production. The project, with a capital estimate of $91.8 million, is expected to begin ore production in FY28 and aims to leverage high copper prices. The development is internally funded, supported by strong cash flow and balance sheet, and is projected to significantly boost the company’s resource base and operational capacity.

Aurelia Metals Gains Approval to Triple Ore Haulage Capacity
Mar 28, 2025

Aurelia Metals Limited announced that the NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure has approved a modification to the Federation Mine development consent, increasing the ore haulage capacity to the Peak processing plant from 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes per annum. This approval is a significant step in Aurelia’s growth strategy, allowing the company to optimize its Cobar Basin operations by processing all mined ore at Peak, thereby enhancing value and operational efficiency.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 20, 2025