Aurelia Metals Limited (AU:AMI)
ASX:AMI
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Aurelia Metals
(Sydney:AMI)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
AU$0.30
▲(11.11% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/31/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (better margins, positive profitability, strong cash generation, and conservative leverage). Technicals also support the outlook with an established uptrend and positive momentum indicators, while valuation is supportive due to a modest P/E but limited by the absence of dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Improving margins
Material margin expansion across gross, EBIT and EBITDA indicates durable operational improvements and tighter cost control. Higher margins support internal funding for sustaining capex, enhance resilience through commodity cycles and improve long‑term ability to convert production into reliable earnings.
Negative Factors
Historical revenue/profit volatility
Recurring swings in revenue and margins reduce predictability of earnings and cash flows, complicating long‑term planning and capital allocation. For a mining business, this makes sustaining steady reinvestment, hiring and shareholder returns harder across business cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving margins
Material margin expansion across gross, EBIT and EBITDA indicates durable operational improvements and tighter cost control. Higher margins support internal funding for sustaining capex, enhance resilience through commodity cycles and improve long‑term ability to convert production into reliable earnings.
Read all positive factors
Aurelia Metals (AMI) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$457.22M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.89M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.7
Beta (1Y)2.05
Revenue Growth10.84%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees57
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.01
Shares Outstanding1,693,401,900
10 Day Avg. Volume3,937,699
30 Day Avg. Volume5,894,610
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.94
P/FCF Ratio23.50
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.43Price Target Upside57.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$434.58M
Aurelia Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aurelia Metals Limited explores for and develops mineral properties in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, lead, zinc, and copper deposits. It owns 100% interests in the Hera mine located to the south-east of Cobar, New Sou...
How the Company Makes Money
Aurelia Metals primarily makes money by mining ore from its operations and processing it into saleable concentrate products (typically zinc, lead, and/or copper concentrates that also contain payable silver and, where applicable, gold). Revenue is...
Aurelia Metals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial position: strong cash generation (AUD 42.9m), a healthy cash balance (AUD 85.6m) and robust liquidity, meaningful production and recovery improvements (Federation ore +21%, Great Cobar development +13%), and on-track expansion projects that should unlock additional throughput and recoveries. Key risks/negatives noted were four recordable safety incidents, a hedging position that limits near-term upside on elevated gold prices, restricted cash tied to a performance bond refinance, and slightly elevated sustaining capex YTD. Overall, the positives around production ramp-up, project execution and balance sheet strength outweigh the lowlights, but management will need to address safety, the restricted cash refinance and hedge exposure.Positive Updates
Strong operating cash flow
Operating cash flow after sustaining capital of AUD 42.9 million for the quarter, driven by strong production, sales and commodity prices.
Negative Updates
Safety incidents
Four recordable injuries in the quarter (hand injuries and slips/trips), largely involving short-term contractors; management highlighted increased focus on supervision and behavioural-based safety.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong operating cash flow
Operating cash flow after sustaining capital of AUD 42.9 million for the quarter, driven by strong production, sales and commodity prices.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call reaffirmed full‑year targets while detailing key metrics and timing: operating cash flow for the quarter was A$42.9m (after sustaining capital) and cash at quarter‑end was A$85.6m (overall liquidity ~A$116m including an undrawn loan note of US$20.4m); restricted cash rose by A$7.9m to A$27.8m with a further ~A$10m expected to be set aside in Jan–Feb and management targeting a refinance to unlock that cash in the first half (ideally by the end of this quarter). Sustaining capital was A$15.6m for the quarter (YTD ~A$31m) and growth capital is currently below midpoint YTD but weighted to H2; tax paid included A$12.2m for FY25. Operational guidance highlights: Federation ore mined up 21% QoQ, development at Federation averaging ~1,500 m/quarter achieved, Great Cobar development +13% QoQ with ~3 km to platform and ~4 km to production, ROM stocks at Peak ~36,000 t, mill throughput near nameplate (record average monthly volumes since FY20) with gold recoveries at all‑time highs and strong Pb/Zn recoveries. Project timing remains on track: tailings/process water work and thickener ready for Q4 FY26, tertiary ball mill Q1 FY27 and materials handling/crushing Q2 FY27, and the company retains its FY28 ambition to reach ~40,000 t copper‑equivalent; note also a hedge book of just over 10,000 oz of gold at ~A$4,500/oz.Aurelia Metals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 387.92M | 343.47M | 309.89M | 369.20M | 438.81M | 416.48M |
| Gross Profit | 106.72M | 85.71M | 27.66M | -34.07M | 19.10M | 106.56M |
| EBITDA | 129.57M | 106.45M | 75.51M | 33.84M | 31.01M | 154.38M |
| Net Income | 53.49M | 48.85M | -5.73M | -52.22M | -81.69M | 42.92M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 576.68M | 547.53M | 472.52M | 444.40M | 562.25M | 656.46M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 85.62M | 110.09M | 116.50M | 38.95M | 76.69M | 74.53M |
| Total Debt | 10.36M | 8.58M | 7.93M | 12.69M | 45.49M | 47.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 195.70M | 184.83M | 155.67M | 134.57M | 225.32M | 235.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 380.99M | 362.70M | 316.85M | 309.82M | 336.93M | 421.29M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.39M | 13.68M | 17.72M | -590.00K | 48.84M | 49.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 122.55M | 129.67M | 100.63M | 45.86M | 154.09M | 136.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -131.31M | -136.35M | -32.53M | -77.37M | -131.46M | -285.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.46M | -637.00K | 9.15M | -6.77M | -20.17M | 144.87M |
Aurelia Metals Technical Analysis
Positive
0.27
Price Trends
0.29
Negative
0.27
Negative
0.24
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
51.57
Neutral
71.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.25, below the 50-day MA of 0.29, and above the 200-day MA of 0.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:AMI.
Aurelia Metals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$457.22M | 4.68 | 14.39% | ― | 10.84% | ― | |
64 Neutral | AU$466.90M | 3.21 | 15.33% | ― | 6.70% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | AU$569.42M | -19.31 | -16.86% | ― | ― | ― | |
50 Neutral | AU$510.48M | -3.13 | -50.73% | ― | ― | 22.73% | |
49 Neutral | AU$326.12M | -7.07 | -16.25% | ― | ― | 50.26% | |
41 Neutral | AU$198.72M | 82.73 | -0.58% | 1.54% | 14.64% | -213.25% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:AMI
Aurelia Metals
0.27
0.03
12.50%
AU:NVA
Nova Minerals
0.72
0.42
142.37%
AU:SGQ
St. George Mining Ltd.
0.13
0.11
584.21%
AU:A1G
African Gold Ltd.
1.00
0.88
733.33%
AU:AIS
Aeris Resources Limited
0.39
0.21
116.67%
AU:OMH
OM Holdings Ltd.
0.26
-0.05
-16.40%
Aurelia Metals Corporate Events
Aurelia Metals Secures A$150m Facility to Boost Liquidity and Free Cash
Apr 1, 2026
Aurelia Metals has secured a A$150 million senior secured financing package from a syndicate including Citi, Credeq and HSBC, comprising a A$110 million rehabilitation bonding facility and a A$40 million revolving credit facility. The new package ...
Aurelia Metals Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares
Mar 16, 2026
Aurelia Metals Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 829,192 ordinary fully paid shares issued under its employee incentive scheme. The new securities, which are not subject to transfer restrictions, expand the company’s quoted sha...
Aurelia Metals Flags Risks as It Releases Half-Year FY26 Results
Feb 25, 2026
Aurelia Metals has released its half-year FY26 financial results, prepared under International Financial Reporting Standards and supplemented with non-IFRS measures such as EBITDA. The company emphasises that this material is informational only, n...
Aurelia Metals lifts profit as Cobar growth projects gather pace
Feb 25, 2026
Aurelia Metals reported a strong first-half FY26 performance, with revenue up 27% to $206.9 million and underlying EBITDA rising 41% to $69.8 million, while underlying net profit after tax jumped 60% to $24.9 million. The company maintained EBITDA...
Aurelia Metals lifts half-year profit and earnings, holds off on dividend
Feb 25, 2026
Aurelia Metals reported stronger financial results for the half-year ended 31 December 2025, with revenue rising 27% to $206.9 million and EBITDA increasing 28% to $66.5 million, reflecting improved operational performance and market conditions. N...
Aurelia Metals Names Graeme Hunt to Board With No Initial Equity Stake
Feb 22, 2026
Aurelia Metals Limited has appointed Graeme Hunt as a director effective 23 February 2026, according to an initial director’s interest notice lodged with the ASX. The filing confirms that Hunt holds no relevant interests in Aurelia Metals se...
Aurelia Metals Names Industry Veteran Graeme Hunt as Non-Executive Chair
Feb 2, 2026
Aurelia Metals has appointed veteran resources executive Graeme Hunt as Non-Executive Chair of its board, effective 23 February 2026, adding extensive global mining and energy leadership to its governance ranks. Hunt’s four decades of experi...
Aurelia Metals CEO to Step Down as Miner Advances Growth Projects
Jan 28, 2026
Aurelia Metals has announced that Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Bryan Quinn will step down in July 2026, remaining with the company in the interim to ensure a smooth leadership transition and to maintain momentum on key initiatives...
Aurelia Metals Issues Risk-Focused December Quarter Update
Jan 20, 2026
Aurelia Metals has released its December 2025 quarterly update presentation, outlining its recent operating and financial performance under International Financial Reporting Standards and highlighting additional non-IFRS metrics such as EBITDA. Th...
Aurelia Metals Delivers Strong Cash Flow as Growth Projects Advance on Schedule
Jan 20, 2026
Aurelia Metals reported a strong December quarter, with group production of 11.7koz of gold, 0.6kt of copper, 7.2kt of zinc and 4.3kt of lead, driving Cobar region operating cash flow to $42.9m and maintaining a solid cash balance of $85.6m despit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.