Aurelia Metals (AMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$397.95M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.80M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.7
• Beta (1Y): 2.06
• Revenue Growth: 10.84%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: 57
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 1,693,401,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,863,309
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,797,147
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.94
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$0.43
• Price Target Upside: 77.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$432.83M

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$0.26 ▲(8.75% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/31/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/31/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (better margins, positive profitability, strong cash generation, and conservative leverage). Technicals also support the outlook with an established uptrend and positive momentum indicators, while valuation is supportive due to a modest P/E but limited by the absence of dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Conservative leverage

A very low debt-to-equity ratio materially reduces financial risk and interest burden, preserving balance sheet flexibility. Over the medium term this supports funding of sustaining capex, cushions commodity cycles, and lowers default risk versus higher-levered peers.

Strong cash generation

Sustained high free cash flow growth and strong operating cash conversion indicate the business reliably turns accounting profits into cash. This underpins funding for maintenance and development, debt reduction, and resilience through commodity price cycles.

Improving profitability and margins

Marked margin expansion and return to positive net profit reflect better cost control and operating efficiency at the mines and plant. Higher margins improve cash generation per tonne and provide a buffer against lower commodity prices over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Commodity and FX exposure

Revenue and margins are structurally tied to metal prices, concentrate treatment charges, and currency moves. Those external drivers create persistent earnings volatility and limited control over realized prices, constraining predictability of cash flow and planning.

Historical volatility in earnings and balance sheet

Prior swings in revenue, profitability and equity/assets indicate the business is sensitive to operational and market shocks. Such variability complicates multi‑period planning, capital allocation and investor visibility into sustainable earnings.

Limited operational scale

A small workforce and focused operations suggest limited scale and concentration risk. This can mean less operational redundancy, higher per‑unit fixed costs, and greater exposure to single‑site disruptions, limiting flexibility to ramp production quickly.

Aurelia Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aurelia Metals Limited explores for and develops mineral properties in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, lead, zinc, and copper deposits. It owns 100% interests in the Hera mine located to the south-east of Cobar, New South Wales; and the Peak mine situated in the northern part of the Cobar Basin, New South Wales, as well as the Dargues mine located in southeastern New South Wales. The company was formerly known as YTC Resources Limited and changed its name to Aurelia Metals Limited in June 2014. Aurelia Metals Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Aurelia Metals primarily makes money by mining ore from its operations and processing it into saleable concentrate products (typically zinc, lead, and/or copper concentrates that also contain payable silver and, where applicable, gold). Revenue is generated from the sale of these concentrates to external customers (e.g., smelters or commodity traders), with payments generally based on the quantity of payable metal contained in the concentrate and prevailing commodity prices, adjusted for treatment and refining charges, penalties for impurities, and other contract terms. The company’s earnings are therefore driven by production volumes and grades, metallurgical recoveries, realized commodity prices (and the AUD/USD exchange rate where sales are USD-linked), and operating/capital costs. Other material revenue streams are not publicly verifiable here; if present (e.g., by-product credits, tolling/processing fees, hedging gains, or asset sales), they cannot be confirmed from the provided prompt and are therefore null.

Aurelia Metals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows improving profitability (net margin 14.22%, EBIT margin 21.44%) and modest revenue growth (5.68%), supported by strong cash flow metrics (FCF growth 90.73% and OCF-to-net income 2.66). Balance sheet leverage is conservative (debt-to-equity 0.024), but historical volatility in revenue/profitability and equity/assets tempers the score.

Income Statement

Aurelia Metals has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 5.68% in the latest year, recovering from previous declines. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 24.96%, indicating better cost management. The net profit margin turned positive at 14.22%, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved to 21.44% and 31.00%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. However, past volatility in revenue and profit margins suggests potential risks.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.024, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity improved to 13.47%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 66.27%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets. Despite these strengths, the company has experienced fluctuations in equity and asset levels, which could pose risks.

Cash Flow

Aurelia Metals demonstrated a robust free cash flow growth rate of 90.73%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.66, suggesting efficient conversion of income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.28, showing a healthy cash flow relative to profits. These metrics highlight strong cash flow management, though past fluctuations in free cash flow growth should be monitored.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	387.92M	343.47M	309.89M	369.20M	438.81M	416.48M
Gross Profit	106.72M	85.71M	27.66M	-34.07M	19.10M	106.56M
EBITDA	129.57M	106.45M	75.51M	33.84M	31.01M	154.38M
Net Income	53.49M	48.85M	-5.73M	-52.22M	-81.69M	42.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	576.68M	547.53M	472.52M	444.40M	562.25M	656.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	85.62M	110.09M	116.50M	38.95M	76.69M	74.53M
Total Debt	10.36M	8.58M	7.93M	12.69M	45.49M	47.38M
Total Liabilities	195.70M	184.83M	155.67M	134.57M	225.32M	235.17M
Stockholders Equity	380.99M	362.70M	316.85M	309.82M	336.93M	421.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.39M	13.68M	17.72M	-590.00K	48.84M	49.57M
Operating Cash Flow	122.55M	129.67M	100.63M	45.86M	154.09M	136.64M
Investing Cash Flow	-131.31M	-136.35M	-32.53M	-77.37M	-131.46M	-285.39M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.46M	-637.00K	9.15M	-6.77M	-20.17M	144.87M

Aurelia Metals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.24
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.29, below the 50-day MA of 0.30, and below the 200-day MA of 0.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AMI.

Aurelia Metals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MLX	82 Outperform	AU$1.05B	9.49	33.38%	―	45.73%	716.15%
JMS	77 Outperform	AU$520.95M	9.80	7.01%	5.45%	16.86%	3.03%
MMI	73 Outperform	AU$374.84M	3.25	81.38%	―	45.56%	―
AMI	72 Outperform	AU$397.95M	4.68	14.39%	―	10.84%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SVM	52 Neutral	AU$436.68M	-10.44	-63.51%	―	―	-98.20%
LOT	45 Neutral	AU$393.43M	-3.97	-12.76%	―	―	51.47%

Aurelia Metals Corporate Events

Aurelia Metals Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Shares

Aurelia Metals Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 829,192 ordinary fully paid shares issued under its employee incentive scheme. The new securities, which are not subject to transfer restrictions, expand the company’s quoted share capital and further align employee interests with those of shareholders.

The issue and quotation of these additional shares may modestly dilute existing holdings but are intended to support staff retention and motivation. By using equity-based incentives, Aurelia Metals continues to leverage its listed status to strengthen its capital management and human resources strategy within the competitive mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Flags Risks as It Releases Half-Year FY26 Results

Aurelia Metals has released its half-year FY26 financial results, prepared under International Financial Reporting Standards and supplemented with non-IFRS measures such as EBITDA. The company emphasises that this material is informational only, not an offer of securities, and has been authorised for publication by its board.

The release highlights the inherent high-risk nature of gold and base metals production and exploration, noting a wide range of operational, regulatory, market, and macroeconomic factors that could affect future performance. Investors are urged to undertake their own investigations and seek professional advice, as the company disclaims reliance on forward-looking statements and does not guarantee the completeness or accuracy of projections.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals lifts profit as Cobar growth projects gather pace

Aurelia Metals reported a strong first-half FY26 performance, with revenue up 27% to $206.9 million and underlying EBITDA rising 41% to $69.8 million, while underlying net profit after tax jumped 60% to $24.9 million. The company maintained EBITDA margins, strengthened its balance sheet with $85.6 million in cash, and fully funded growth capital from operating cash flow despite slightly lower operating cash inflows.

Operationally, the Federation mine moved into commercial production and ramped up ahead of plan, while development at the Great Cobar project and a major process plant expansion to 1.1–1.2 Mtpa remained on schedule. Management highlighted rising ore grades, increased Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves in the Cobar region, and reaffirmed FY26 guidance, underscoring Aurelia’s strategy to grow production toward 40 kt of copper-equivalent output by FY28 and support reliable shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals lifts half-year profit and earnings, holds off on dividend

Aurelia Metals reported stronger financial results for the half-year ended 31 December 2025, with revenue rising 27% to $206.9 million and EBITDA increasing 28% to $66.5 million, reflecting improved operational performance and market conditions. Net profit after tax climbed 26% to $22.6 million, boosting basic earnings per share from 1.06 to 1.33 cents and lifting net tangible assets per share to 22.2 cents, though the company again opted not to pay an interim dividend, indicating a continued focus on balance sheet strength and reinvestment over near-term cash returns to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Names Graeme Hunt to Board With No Initial Equity Stake

Aurelia Metals Limited has appointed Graeme Hunt as a director effective 23 February 2026, according to an initial director’s interest notice lodged with the ASX. The filing confirms that Hunt holds no relevant interests in Aurelia Metals securities or related contracts at the time of his appointment, indicating a fresh entry to the board without existing shareholdings.

The absence of equity or contractual interests suggests Hunt’s governance role will initially be independent of direct financial exposure to the company’s performance. This structure may appeal to investors focused on board independence and oversight, while any future changes in his holdings will be subject to disclosure under ASX and Corporations Act requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Names Industry Veteran Graeme Hunt as Non-Executive Chair

Aurelia Metals has appointed veteran resources executive Graeme Hunt as Non-Executive Chair of its board, effective 23 February 2026, adding extensive global mining and energy leadership to its governance ranks. Hunt’s four decades of experience span senior roles at BHP, Lihir Gold, Broadspectrum and AGL Energy, including stewardship of major polymetallic and iron ore operations and complex energy-transition challenges. Aurelia’s board highlighted that his background in polymetallic mining and underground operations, particularly at Olympic Dam, aligns closely with the company’s strategy to ramp up its Federation mine, advance the Great Cobar development and optimise Peak operations. Hunt signalled his focus on disciplined growth and shareholder returns, noting Aurelia’s strong balance sheet and self-funded growth model as it seeks to capitalise on structural demand for copper, zinc, lead and gold from its Cobar Basin asset base.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.34 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals CEO to Step Down as Miner Advances Growth Projects

Aurelia Metals has announced that Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Bryan Quinn will step down in July 2026, remaining with the company in the interim to ensure a smooth leadership transition and to maintain momentum on key initiatives, including the Peak Process Plant expansion, development of the Great Cobar project and refinancing of the balance sheet. The Board has commenced a search for a new CEO to lead the company’s next growth phase, while confirming that recruitment of a new Non‑Executive Chair is well advanced, with the Peak plant already running near its 800ktpa capacity and expansion projects progressing toward a 1.1–1.2mtpa throughput target, positioning Aurelia for its next stage of operational and strategic growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Issues Risk-Focused December Quarter Update

Aurelia Metals has released its December 2025 quarterly update presentation, outlining its recent operating and financial performance under International Financial Reporting Standards and highlighting additional non-IFRS metrics such as EBITDA. The company stresses that the document is informational only, contains forward-looking statements subject to significant risks and uncertainties, and should not be treated as an offer or solicitation to invest, urging stakeholders and potential investors to conduct their own analysis and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Delivers Strong Cash Flow as Growth Projects Advance on Schedule

Aurelia Metals reported a strong December quarter, with group production of 11.7koz of gold, 0.6kt of copper, 7.2kt of zinc and 4.3kt of lead, driving Cobar region operating cash flow to $42.9m and maintaining a solid cash balance of $85.6m despite significant spending on growth projects, tax and performance bonding. Management reaffirmed FY26 production, cost and capital guidance, with gold output tracking toward the upper end of the range, as the Federation Mine ramp-up continues ahead of plan with higher ore grades, the Peak processing plant runs near capacity with high metal recoveries, and the Great Cobar mine development and Peak plant expansion progress on schedule to increase throughput to 1.1–1.2Mtpa in the first half of FY27, positioning the company for higher copper-equivalent production and stronger shareholder returns, albeit against a backdrop of increased safety incidents being actively addressed.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.

Aurelia Metals Confirms Lapse of 2.49 Million Performance Rights

Aurelia Metals Limited has announced the cessation of 2,490,580 performance rights, which lapsed after the underlying conditions for conversion into securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 9 January 2026. The lapse of these conditional rights reduces the company’s pool of potential equity-based instruments, implying no resultant share dilution for existing shareholders and reflecting performance or vesting hurdles that were not achieved under the relevant incentive arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMI) stock is a Buy with a A$0.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aurelia Metals stock, see the AU:AMI Stock Forecast page.