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Aurelia Metals
(OTC:AMI)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
AU$0.31
▲(17.31% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:01/31/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (better margins, positive profitability, strong cash generation, and conservative leverage). Technicals also support the outlook with an established uptrend and positive momentum indicators, while valuation is supportive due to a modest P/E but limited by the absence of dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Material FCF growth and an operating-cash-to-net-income ratio of 2.66 indicate durable cash conversion ability. This strengthens internal funding for sustaining/growth capex, lowers refinancing need, and provides a buffer through commodity cycles, supporting long-term operational resilience.
Negative Factors
Earnings volatility
Historical swings in revenue and margins signal structural sensitivity to mining variables (grades, recoveries, downtime). That volatility complicates forecasting, raises financing and planning risk, and may force precautionary capital allocation or larger liquidity buffers over time.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Material FCF growth and an operating-cash-to-net-income ratio of 2.66 indicate durable cash conversion ability. This strengthens internal funding for sustaining/growth capex, lowers refinancing need, and provides a buffer through commodity cycles, supporting long-term operational resilience.
Read all positive factors
Aurelia Metals (AMI) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$465.69M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.1
Beta (1Y)2.00
Revenue Growth19.35%
EPS Growth276.19%
CountryAU
Employees57
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding1,693,401,900
10 Day Avg. Volume2,206,458
30 Day Avg. Volume3,330,124
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.94
P/FCF Ratio23.50
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.45Price Target Upside73.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$513.07M
Aurelia Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aurelia Metals Limited is an Australian enterprise dedicated to the exploration and development of mineral resources across the nation. The company primarily seeks out deposits rich in gold, silver, lead, zinc, and copper. It holds full ownership ...
How the Company Makes Money
Aurelia Metals makes money by mining and processing ore into metal-bearing concentrates and selling those concentrates to third-party customers (typically via offtake or concentrate sales agreements). Revenue is generated when concentrate shipment...
Aurelia Metals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial position: strong cash generation (AUD 42.9m), a healthy cash balance (AUD 85.6m) and robust liquidity, meaningful production and recovery improvements (Federation ore +21%, Great Cobar development +13%), and on-track expansion projects that should unlock additional throughput and recoveries. Key risks/negatives noted were four recordable safety incidents, a hedging position that limits near-term upside on elevated gold prices, restricted cash tied to a performance bond refinance, and slightly elevated sustaining capex YTD. Overall, the positives around production ramp-up, project execution and balance sheet strength outweigh the lowlights, but management will need to address safety, the restricted cash refinance and hedge exposure.Positive Updates
Strong operating cash flow
Operating cash flow after sustaining capital of AUD 42.9 million for the quarter, driven by strong production, sales and commodity prices.
Negative Updates
Safety incidents
Four recordable injuries in the quarter (hand injuries and slips/trips), largely involving short-term contractors; management highlighted increased focus on supervision and behavioural-based safety.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong operating cash flow
Operating cash flow after sustaining capital of AUD 42.9 million for the quarter, driven by strong production, sales and commodity prices.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call reaffirmed full‑year targets while detailing key metrics and timing: operating cash flow for the quarter was A$42.9m (after sustaining capital) and cash at quarter‑end was A$85.6m (overall liquidity ~A$116m including an undrawn loan note of US$20.4m); restricted cash rose by A$7.9m to A$27.8m with a further ~A$10m expected to be set aside in Jan–Feb and management targeting a refinance to unlock that cash in the first half (ideally by the end of this quarter). Sustaining capital was A$15.6m for the quarter (YTD ~A$31m) and growth capital is currently below midpoint YTD but weighted to H2; tax paid included A$12.2m for FY25. Operational guidance highlights: Federation ore mined up 21% QoQ, development at Federation averaging ~1,500 m/quarter achieved, Great Cobar development +13% QoQ with ~3 km to platform and ~4 km to production, ROM stocks at Peak ~36,000 t, mill throughput near nameplate (record average monthly volumes since FY20) with gold recoveries at all‑time highs and strong Pb/Zn recoveries. Project timing remains on track: tailings/process water work and thickener ready for Q4 FY26, tertiary ball mill Q1 FY27 and materials handling/crushing Q2 FY27, and the company retains its FY28 ambition to reach ~40,000 t copper‑equivalent; note also a hedge book of just over 10,000 oz of gold at ~A$4,500/oz.Aurelia Metals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 387.92M | 343.47M | 309.89M | 369.20M | 438.81M | 416.48M |
| Gross Profit | 106.72M | 85.71M | 27.66M | -34.07M | 19.10M | 106.56M |
| EBITDA | 125.40M | 106.45M | 75.51M | 33.84M | 31.01M | 154.38M |
| Net Income | 53.49M | 48.85M | -5.73M | -52.22M | -81.69M | 42.92M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 576.68M | 547.53M | 472.52M | 444.40M | 562.25M | 656.46M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 85.62M | 110.09M | 116.50M | 38.95M | 76.69M | 74.53M |
| Total Debt | 10.36M | 8.58M | 7.93M | 12.69M | 45.49M | 47.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 195.70M | 184.83M | 155.67M | 134.57M | 225.32M | 235.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 380.99M | 362.70M | 316.85M | 309.82M | 336.93M | 421.29M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.39M | 13.68M | 17.72M | -590.00K | 48.84M | 49.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 122.55M | 129.67M | 100.63M | 45.86M | 154.09M | 136.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -131.31M | -136.35M | -32.53M | -77.37M | -131.46M | -285.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.46M | -637.00K | 9.15M | -6.77M | -20.17M | 144.87M |
Aurelia Metals Technical Analysis
Negative
0.26
Price Trends
0.30
Negative
0.29
Negative
0.27
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
44.14
Neutral
14.29
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.29, below the 50-day MA of 0.30, and below the 200-day MA of 0.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AMI.
Aurelia Metals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$465.69M | 9.15 | 14.39% | ― | 19.35% | 276.19% | |
65 Neutral | AU$561.41M | 6.45 | 16.49% | ― | 7.77% | 152.21% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | AU$243.24M | -109.18 | -16.25% | ― | ― | -44.12% | |
45 Neutral | AU$168.15M | 43.89 | 0.63% | 1.54% | -0.53% | -77.84% | |
41 Neutral | AU$404.90M | -8.00 | -50.73% | ― | ― | -79.69% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:AMI
Aurelia Metals
0.28
0.08
37.50%
AU:NVA
Nova Minerals
0.54
0.27
101.89%
AU:SGQ
St. George Mining Ltd.
0.09
0.05
127.50%
AU:AIS
Aeris Resources Limited
0.40
0.22
119.44%
AU:OMH
OM Holdings Ltd.
0.22
-0.09
-28.57%
Aurelia Metals Corporate Events
Aurelia Metals Sets Investor Call for June-Quarter Results
Jul 7, 2026
Aurelia Metals will release its quarterly results for the period ended 30 June 2026 to the ASX before market open on 20 July 2026. Senior executives, including the managing director, CFO, chief development and technical officer, and the general ma...
Aurelia Metals Unveils High-Return Tailings Project at Peak Operation
Jun 16, 2026
Aurelia Metals has completed a pre-feasibility study for the New Occidental Tailings Retreatment Project at its Peak Operation in central west New South Wales. The plan involves reclaiming and hauling two dry-stacked, gold-bearing tailings stockpi...
Aurelia Metals commissions tailings thickener to lift Peak plant capacity
Jun 8, 2026
Aurelia Metals has completed construction and commissioning of a new tailings thickener at its Peak processing plant in New South Wales, a key upgrade aimed at improving water management and tailings deposition. The thickener is expected to enhanc...
Aurelia Metals expands Cobar Basin footprint with new tenements and earn-in deal
Jun 1, 2026
Aurelia Metals has expanded its strategic landholding in the Cobar Basin by entering an earn-in agreement with Legacy Minerals over the West Cobar Exploration Licences 9511 and 9858, and by securing two new exploration licences, EL9898 (Glenwood) ...
Legacy Minerals Strikes Farm-In Deal With Aurelia Metals at Cobar Project
Jun 1, 2026
Legacy Minerals has entered a binding earn-in and farm-in agreement with Peak Gold Mines, a subsidiary of Aurelia Metals, over its 100% owned Cobar Project in New South Wales, aligning with its strategy of partnering on non-core assets while prior...
Aurelia Metals Flags Risk and Uncertainty in March 2026 Quarterly Update
Apr 27, 2026
Aurelia Metals has released its March 2026 quarterly update, outlining operational and financial information for investors while emphasising that the document is not an offer to buy or sell securities. The company underscores the high‑risk n...
Aurelia Metals Appoints New Director and Discloses Significant Shareholding
Apr 23, 2026
Aurelia Metals has appointed Bradley John Newcombe as a director effective 24 April 2026, and disclosed his initial interests in the company’s securities in line with ASX listing rules. Newcombe directly holds 10,250,000 ordinary shares and ...
Aurelia Metals Appoints Director With Large Indirect Shareholding
Apr 23, 2026
Aurelia Metals Limited has appointed Franklyn Roger Brazil as a director effective 24 April 2026, and disclosed his associated interests in the company’s securities. While Brazil holds no shares directly, entities linked to him, Brazil Farmi...
Major shareholder Lyn Brazil rejoins Aurelia Metals board as non-executive director
Apr 23, 2026
Aurelia Metals has announced that prominent investor and philanthropist Franklyn (Lyn) Brazil has rejoined its board as a non-executive director, representing major shareholder Brazil Farming Pty Ltd and related entities, which collectively hold n...
Aurelia Metals Uncovers New High-Grade Zones at Federation Mine
Apr 22, 2026
Aurelia Metals has completed its first underground exploration drilling campaign at the Federation Mine in western New South Wales, significantly extending known high-grade mineralisation at the Federation West zone. The program also identified ne...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.