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Jupiter Mines Limited (AU:JMS)
ASX:JMS

Jupiter Mines Limited (JMS) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:JMS

Jupiter Mines Limited

(Sydney:JMS)

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Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
AU$0.32
▲(15.36% Upside)
Jupiter Mines Limited scores well due to its strong balance sheet and efficient operations, which are offset by inconsistent revenue and profit growth. The stock's technical indicators are favorable, showing a bullish trend, though caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions. Valuation metrics are attractive, with a reasonable P/E ratio and high dividend yield, making it appealing for income investors.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Low leverage and a robust equity ratio give Jupiter durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk through commodity cycles, supports capacity to sustain dividend distributions and fund opportunistic capex or working capital without stressing liquidity.
Cash Distribution Model
Holding an equity stake in an established manganese producer provides a streamlined, asset-light income model. Long-term, predictable distributions (subject to Tshipi performance) reduce operational complexity and let Jupiter focus on capital allocation and shareholder returns.
Operational Margin Quality
Healthy gross and operating margins indicate efficient mining and cost control at the operating partner level. Sustained margin cushions improve resilience to lower prices or higher input costs and support consistent cash available for distributions over time.
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Volatility
Inconsistent revenue and profit growth undermines earnings predictability, complicating annual distribution planning. For an investor reliant on partner payouts, variability hampers forecasting for capital allocation and raises the risk premium on future cash returns.
Free Cash Flow Variability
Recent negative free cash flow and historical volatility weaken the company’s ability to sustain dividends or fund reinvestment without drawing reserves. Persistent FCF variability can force cutbacks, asset sales, or reliance on balance-sheet buffers during downturns.
Concentration / Commodity Risk
Heavy reliance on a single equity interest in Tshipi and manganese markets concentrates operational, price and currency risk. Structural shocks to manganese demand, export logistics or ZAR/USD moves can materially swing earnings and distributions with limited diversification to offset them.

Jupiter Mines Limited (JMS) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Jupiter Mines Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJupiter Mines Limited engages in the development and operation of mineral resource properties. It primarily explores for manganese deposits. The company's flagship project is the Tshipi Manganese mine located in South Africa. Jupiter Mines Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyJupiter Mines Limited generates revenue primarily through the sale of manganese and iron ore. The Tshipi manganese mine is a significant contributor to the company's income, producing high-grade manganese that is sold to steel manufacturers and other industrial customers around the world. Revenue is derived from long-term contracts with customers and spot market sales, which provides a diversified income stream. The company also engages in joint ventures and partnerships that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings. Additionally, fluctuations in commodity prices and demand in the steel industry directly influence the revenue generated from its mining operations.

Jupiter Mines Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 29, 2024
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a strong operational performance with record sales and production, significant profit and EBITDA growth, and proactive market strategies. However, increased costs and cash flow issues, coupled with market volatility due to external factors, present challenges.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Sales and Production Increase
Sales were up 35% quarter-on-quarter, with full-year sales of 3.55 million tonnes, surpassing the average of the last 5-6 years. Production increased by 22% from the previous quarter.
Significant Profit and EBITDA Growth
EBITDA quadrupled quarter-on-quarter, leading to an AUD 140 million increase, in line with previous guidance on sensitivity to manganese prices.
Land Logistics Achievement
Land logistics volumes increased by 55% on the March quarter, achieving a record for the June quarter.
Positive Market Dynamics for HP MSM Project
The HP MSM project is progressing with pre-feasibility studies and growing demand for manganese in the EV market projected by 2028.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating Costs
Operating costs increased due to a higher royalty band and unfavorable ForEx. These accounted for about half of the cost increase.
Cash Flow Lagging Behind EBITDA
Cash flow increased less than EBITDA due to a run-up in accounts receivable and an increase in finished product inventory.
Market Disruption and Volatility
The manganese market experienced significant disruption and price volatility due to the GEMCO outage and concerns about demand and increasing supply.
Company Guidance
In the Q4 2024 earnings call for Jupiter Mines (JMS.AX), CEO Brad Rogers highlighted a robust quarter marked by a 35% increase in sales and a 22% rise in production compared to the previous quarter. The company's full-year sales reached 3.55 million tonnes, surpassing historical averages. Realized prices were up by 24% while operating costs increased due to higher royalties and unfavorable foreign exchange conditions. EBITDA quadrupled, indicating significant leverage to manganese price increases. The market faced disruptions due to the GEMCO outage, which drove up prices, but a retracement occurred later due to factors such as weak steel demand and increased South African supply. Despite these challenges, the company achieved record logistics performance and saw substantial cash flow improvements, with working capital rising alongside a build-up in product inventory. Looking forward, Rogers noted supportive factors in the manganese market, including low Chinese stockpiles and constrained South African logistics, which could provide future market support.

Jupiter Mines Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Jupiter Mines Limited demonstrates strong financial health with a solid balance sheet and efficient operations. However, revenue and profit growth inconsistencies, along with fluctuating cash flows, pose potential risks. The company should focus on stabilizing revenue streams and improving cash flow management to enhance overall financial performance.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Jupiter Mines Limited shows a strong gross profit margin, indicating efficient production and cost management. However, the net profit margin has been volatile, with a significant drop in recent years. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with periods of decline, which could be a concern for future profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting good operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating strong financial stability and low leverage risk. The return on equity is commendable, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is robust, showcasing a strong capital structure with a high proportion of assets financed by equity.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals fluctuations in free cash flow growth, with recent negative growth indicating potential cash management challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is generally healthy, but the free cash flow to net income ratio has shown variability, suggesting inconsistencies in cash generation relative to profits.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue9.50M9.43M8.07M8.52M7.30M8.20M
Gross Profit7.00M3.92M4.74M4.84M3.20M8.20M
EBITDA351.05K1.52M1.30M1.03M2.08M4.22M
Net Income76.47M40.09M38.87M46.75M53.98M67.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets577.67M602.41M593.38M577.67M532.73M556.06M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments49.49M13.16M19.06M27.74M39.16M60.62M
Total Debt504.17K299.14K398.14K504.17K52.45K38.40K
Total Liabilities105.77M37.16M50.03M105.77M97.41M96.74M
Stockholders Equity471.90M565.25M543.35M471.90M435.32M459.32M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow49.25M752.95K-1.87M76.39M1.78K73.44M
Operating Cash Flow49.32M759.12K-1.86M76.47M3.20K73.44M
Investing Cash Flow-77.71K13.03M12.63M51.14M26.61M70.05M
Financing Cash Flow-39.34M-19.71M-19.67M-39.34M-48.97M-34.35M

Jupiter Mines Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price0.28
Price Trends
50DMA
0.27
Positive
100DMA
0.27
Positive
200DMA
0.23
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Positive
RSI
51.98
Neutral
STOCH
33.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:JMS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.28, above the 50-day MA of 0.27, and above the 200-day MA of 0.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:JMS.

Jupiter Mines Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
AU$1.16B7.8833.38%45.73%716.15%
77
Outperform
AU$540.61M13.487.01%5.45%16.86%3.03%
67
Neutral
AU$221.65M-10.57-3.24%1.54%14.64%-213.25%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
55
Neutral
AU$720.69M-35.03-7.50%51.47%
52
Neutral
AU$452.86M-10.57-90.12%-98.20%
51
Neutral
AU$409.42M2.99145.87%45.56%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:JMS
Jupiter Mines Limited
0.28
0.14
95.80%
AU:MLX
Metals X Limited
1.24
0.78
171.43%
AU:SVM
Sovereign Metals Limited
0.70
-0.05
-6.04%
AU:MMI
Metro Mining Limited
0.07
<0.01
11.86%
AU:OMH
OM Holdings Ltd.
0.28
-0.05
-16.42%
AU:LOT
Lotus Resources Limited
2.68
0.04
1.32%

Jupiter Mines Limited Corporate Events

Exxaro to Become Major Shareholder and JV Partner in Jupiter’s Tshipi Manganese Mine
Jan 30, 2026

Jupiter Mines has confirmed that Exxaro Resources has satisfied all conditions to acquire a 50.1% interest in the Tshipi Manganese Mine and a 19.99% shareholding in Jupiter, through the purchase of stakes and marketing rights previously held by Ntsimbintle Holdings and OM Holdings. While Exxaro will become a major shareholder and joint venture partner, Jupiter will retain its 49.9% ownership and joint control of Tshipi, with its existing shareholders’ agreement and pro rata marketing rights unchanged, positioning the company to benefit from Exxaro’s South African operational expertise and reinforcing its growth and consolidation strategy in the Kalahari Manganese Field.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JMS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jupiter Mines Limited stock, see the AU:JMS Stock Forecast page.

Jupiter Mines’ Tshipi Unit Boosts Output as Manganese Prices Firm but EBITDA Slips
Jan 29, 2026

In the December 2025 quarter, Jupiter Mines’ Tshipi operation lifted sales to 867,619 tonnes and production to 840,688 tonnes, with high‑grade output up 10% on the prior quarter and costs edging down to US$2.24 per dmtu FOB, despite headwinds from a stronger South African rand and higher logistics and overheads. Average realised manganese prices improved to US$4.10/dmtu CIF on stronger Chinese consumption and seasonal restocking, and spot prices continued to firm into January 2026, but Tshipi’s quarterly EBITDA fell 19% to A$21.6m and cash slipped 2% to A$137.4m, largely due to foreign exchange movements and half‑year tax and royalty payments, while safety performance deteriorated slightly with two lost-time injuries pushing TRIFR to 0.56.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JMS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jupiter Mines Limited stock, see the AU:JMS Stock Forecast page.

Jupiter Mines MD Increases Shareholding as Incentive Rights Vest
Dec 23, 2025

Jupiter Mines has reported a change in the shareholding of Managing Director Brad Rogers, who has increased his direct holding in the company following the vesting and exercise of short-term incentive (STI) deferred rights. On 22 December 2025, Rogers converted a total of 1,050,362 rights into fully paid ordinary shares at no cash consideration, reflecting the vesting of FY23 (second tranche) and FY24 (first tranche) STI awards, lifting his shareholding to 6,345,232 shares while leaving a substantial balance of unvested STI and long‑term incentive rights on issue. The transaction underscores the alignment of executive remuneration with shareholder outcomes and indicates continued reliance on equity-based incentives in Jupiter Mines’ governance and remuneration framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JMS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.29 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jupiter Mines Limited stock, see the AU:JMS Stock Forecast page.

Jupiter Mines Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Dec 23, 2025

Jupiter Mines Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 1,050,362 new fully paid ordinary shares, to trade under its existing ticker JMS. The additional shares, issued on 22 December 2025 following the exercise or conversion of existing securities, will marginally increase the company’s free float and share base, offering investors slightly expanded exposure to the stock without indicating any immediate change to its underlying operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JMS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.29 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jupiter Mines Limited stock, see the AU:JMS Stock Forecast page.

Jupiter Mines Updates Director’s Interest with New Incentive Plan
Dec 4, 2025

Jupiter Mines Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Brad Rogers, who acquired additional short-term and long-term deferred rights as part of an incentive plan approved by shareholders. This change, effective December 4, 2025, reflects the company’s strategy to align executive interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JMS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.29 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jupiter Mines Limited stock, see the AU:JMS Stock Forecast page.

Jupiter Mines Limited Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentives
Dec 4, 2025

Jupiter Mines Limited announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, specifically 7,594,497 performance rights and 804,292 deferred rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is aimed at aligning employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JMS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.29 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jupiter Mines Limited stock, see the AU:JMS Stock Forecast page.

Jupiter Mines Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentives
Dec 4, 2025

Jupiter Mines Limited announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, including 7,594,497 performance rights and 804,292 deferred rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely aimed at aligning employee interests with company performance, potentially impacting operational efficiency and stakeholder confidence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JMS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.29 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jupiter Mines Limited stock, see the AU:JMS Stock Forecast page.

Jupiter Mines Limited AGM Results: All Resolutions Passed
Nov 26, 2025

Jupiter Mines Limited announced the results of its Annual General Meeting, where all resolutions were passed by a poll. Key decisions included the adoption of the FY25 remuneration report, re-election and confirmation of non-executive directors, and approval of short-term and long-term incentive performance rights for the CEO. The renewal of the proportional takeover provision was also approved, indicating strong shareholder support for the company’s strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JMS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.29 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jupiter Mines Limited stock, see the AU:JMS Stock Forecast page.

Jupiter Mines Limited’s FY25 Annual General Meeting Highlights
Nov 26, 2025

Jupiter Mines Limited held its Annual General Meeting on November 26, 2025, in Perth. The presentation provided during the meeting was for informational purposes and emphasized that it should not be considered complete or relied upon as investment advice. It highlighted that the information is subject to change and does not account for individual investment objectives or financial situations. The presentation also contained forward-looking statements, which are subject to uncertainties and risks that could affect the company’s future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JMS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.29 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jupiter Mines Limited stock, see the AU:JMS Stock Forecast page.

Jupiter Mines Reports Record Year and Strategic Advancements
Nov 26, 2025

Jupiter Mines Limited reported a record-breaking financial year in 2025 for its Tshipi manganese mine, achieving the highest-ever mining volumes and sales, leading to an increased net profit after tax of $39.9 million. The company declared a total dividend of 1.5 cents per share for FY25, reflecting a yield of around 6 percent. Jupiter Mines is advancing its five-year strategy, with significant progress in sustainability and logistics optimization, and has achieved Level 1 B-BBEE status. Additionally, the company is exploring the potential to produce high-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate for EV batteries, with successful pilot plant results. A strategic agreement with Exxaro Resources to acquire a significant interest in Tshipi and Jupiter Mines further validates the company’s strong market position and future growth prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JMS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.29 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jupiter Mines Limited stock, see the AU:JMS Stock Forecast page.

Jupiter Mines Limited Provides Company Update at Macquarie WA Forum
Nov 6, 2025

Jupiter Mines Limited has released a presentation at the Macquarie WA Forum in Perth, providing an update on the company’s current status. The presentation is intended for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. It highlights that the information is subject to change and includes disclaimers regarding the accuracy and completeness of the data presented. The company emphasizes that the presentation may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to uncertainties and risks, which could lead to different actual outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JMS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.29 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Jupiter Mines Limited stock, see the AU:JMS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 02, 2025