Bluescope Steel Limited (AU:BSL)
ASX:BSL
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Bluescope Steel
(Sydney:BSL)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
AU$29.00
▲(8.49% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance (profitability and revenue pressure despite a strong balance sheet), partially offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Earnings call guidance and capital return plans are supportive but balanced by near-term headwinds (low spreads, transition losses, peak CapEx), while technical indicators are broadly neutral.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength & liquidity
Extremely low net debt and ~A$3.2bn liquidity provide durable financial flexibility across cycles. This balance sheet strength supports continued project funding, large shareholder distributions and the ability to withstand commodity-driven earnings volatility without forcing distressed asset sales.
Negative Factors
Collapsed profitability and revenue pressure
Sharp margin and profitability deterioration reflects weaker realizations and cost pressure; a net margin near zero limits internal cash generation and return on equity. If sustained, this undermines ability to self‑fund projects and maintain higher shareholder distributions without relying on leverage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength & liquidity
Extremely low net debt and ~A$3.2bn liquidity provide durable financial flexibility across cycles. This balance sheet strength supports continued project funding, large shareholder distributions and the ability to withstand commodity-driven earnings volatility without forcing distressed asset sales.
Read all positive factors
Bluescope Steel (BSL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$11.71B
Dividend Yield2.48%
Average Volume (3M)3.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.8
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth-4.46%
EPS Growth-89.42%
CountryAU
Employees16,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.87
Shares Outstanding438,077,420
10 Day Avg. Volume2,079,311
30 Day Avg. Volume3,951,276
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.35
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio56.51
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$31.05Price Target Upside16.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$16.52B
Bluescope Steel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BlueScope Steel Limited produces and sells metal coated and painted steel building products in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, North America, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Australian Steel Products, North Star Blue...
How the Company Makes Money
BlueScope makes money primarily by producing and selling steel and steel-based building products, with earnings influenced by sales volumes, product mix, and the spread between input costs (notably raw materials and purchased steel slab) and the a...
Bluescope Steel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 15, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced strong operational and financial progress — material underlying EBIT growth, near-zero net debt, clear project completions and a substantial step-up in shareholder returns — against notable near-term headwinds including a tragic safety incident, persistent low Asian steel spreads, transitional impacts in New Zealand and a still loss‑making BCP business. Management provided credible delivery milestones (project capacities, cost programs, property realization) and conservative guidance assumptions, and signaled a shift from investment to returns backed by a prudent (if higher) leverage tolerance.Positive Updates
Strong Group Underlying Profit Performance
Underlying EBIT of $558 million in H1 FY26, up $249 million (+~81% year-on-year from ~$309m) demonstrating portfolio strength; reported net profit after tax $391 million.
Negative Updates
Fatal Safety Incident at Port Kembla
Tragic loss of a contractor during the #6 blast furnace reline project (November). Safe Work NSW investigation ongoing; company emphasized safety refocus and highest priority on improving safety performance.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Underlying Profit Performance
Underlying EBIT of $558 million in H1 FY26, up $249 million (+~81% year-on-year from ~$309m) demonstrating portfolio strength; reported net profit after tax $391 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided H2 FY26 underlying EBIT of $620–700 million (H1 was $558m; reported NPAT $391m) on a $0.70 FX assumption, noting exposure to spreads and market conditions; group ROIC was 8.1% (North America 13.6%, Asia 17.5%), net debt at the half was ~$2m with ~$3.2bn liquidity and CapEx of $681m in H1 (CapEx expected to peak this year and step down into H1 FY27). They reset capital management to target net debt up to $1.5bn (previously $400–800m) and at least 75% of free cash flow to shareholders, planning $3.00 per share in calendar 2026 (comprised of a $1.00 special, $1.30 annual ordinary including a $0.65 interim, plus $0.70 via a ~$310m buyback) and >$1.3bn total distributions; growth targets include a $500m EBIT uplift to 2030 (> $200m North America, > $125m Australia, ~ $150m Asia/NZ), operational capacity adds of +300k tpa at North Star and +240k tpa from Metal Coating Line #7, $190m delivered of a $200m cost program and a new $150m cost program to hit full run rate by FY27, and acceleration of a ~1,200‑hectare surplus land program (e.g., 33ha West Dapto sold for $76m).Bluescope Steel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.61B | 16.25B | 17.06B | 18.17B | 18.99B | 12.87B |
| Gross Profit | 2.11B | 6.01B | 6.68B | 2.64B | 4.71B | 2.38B |
| EBITDA | 1.17B | 994.50M | 1.99B | 2.18B | 4.38B | 2.22B |
| Net Income | 295.50M | 83.80M | 805.70M | 1.01B | 2.81B | 1.19B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.78B | 15.78B | 15.68B | 15.94B | 16.61B | 13.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.08B | 857.60M | 1.09B | 1.49B | 1.68B | 1.96B |
| Total Debt | 1.56B | 886.00M | 721.50M | 786.50M | 1.32B | 1.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.37B | 4.51B | 4.39B | 4.90B | 6.16B | 4.99B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.78B | 10.67B | 10.72B | 10.47B | 9.78B | 7.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 269.30M | 179.50M | 433.70M | 1.34B | 1.71B | 897.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.64B | 1.41B | 1.41B | 2.15B | 2.47B | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.22B | -1.23B | -967.00M | -979.10M | -1.76B | -757.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -133.30M | -423.70M | -849.20M | -1.36B | -1.05B | -295.90M |
Bluescope Steel Technical Analysis
Negative
26.73
Price Trends
28.01
Negative
25.55
Positive
23.58
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.20
Negative
46.51
Neutral
65.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BSL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.81, below the 50-day MA of 28.01, and above the 200-day MA of 23.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:BSL.
Bluescope Steel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | AU$228.19M | 7.02 | 24.98% | 7.62% | -0.03% | 23.78% | |
65 Neutral | AU$11.71B | 6.75 | 2.76% | 2.48% | -4.46% | -89.42% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | AU$791.26M | 33.43 | 6.68% | 0.86% | -12.17% | -61.32% | |
59 Neutral | AU$2.86B | 11.40 | 12.63% | 3.66% | 0.40% | -53.09% | |
55 Neutral | AU$3.81B | -28.99 | 0.14% | 1.27% | 3.98% | 70.79% | |
52 Neutral | AU$430.86M | -6.44 | -7.08% | ― | -48.05% | -1394.34% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:BSL
Bluescope Steel
26.73
6.85
34.46%
AU:CIA
Champion Iron
5.37
0.73
15.68%
AU:MGX
Mount Gibson Iron Limited
0.37
0.03
10.61%
AU:SGM
Sims
19.75
5.35
37.17%
AU:BIS
Bisalloy Steel Group Ltd
4.75
1.75
58.33%
AU:VSL
Vulcan Steel Ltd.
5.40
-2.31
-29.98%
Bluescope Steel Corporate Events
BlueScope Steel Discloses Initial Shareholding and Incentives for New Director Tania Archibald
Feb 5, 2026
BlueScope Steel Limited has notified the ASX of the initial director’s interest of newly appointed director Tania Jillian Archibald, who joined the board effective 1 February 2026. Archibald holds 201,567 ordinary shares in the company and h...
BlueScope Steel Files Final Director’s Interest Notice for Departing Board Member Mark Vassella
Feb 5, 2026
BlueScope Steel has notified the ASX that Mark Vassella ceased to be a director of the company on 31 January 2026, lodging a final director’s interest notice that details his remaining holdings in company securities. The notice discloses his...
BlueScope’s New CEO Tania Archibald Launches Value-Acceleration Agenda After Rejecting Takeover Bid
Feb 1, 2026
BlueScope Steel has commenced a new leadership era with Tania Archibald taking over as managing director and chief executive officer, succeeding Mark Vassella after his eight-year tenure in which the company was reshaped, strengthened and returned...
BlueScope Steel Declares AUD 1.00 Dividend on Ordinary Shares
Jan 13, 2026
BlueScope Steel Limited has announced a new dividend on its ordinary fully paid shares, declaring a distribution of AUD 1.00 per share. The dividend does not relate to a specific period within the financial year and will trade ex-dividend on 20 Ja...
BlueScope Steel Announces $438m Special Dividend as Cash Flows Set to Rise
Jan 13, 2026
BlueScope Steel will return $438 million in surplus cash to investors via an unfranked special dividend of $1.00 per share, funded by the sale of its 50 per cent stake in the Tata BlueScope joint venture, the agreed sale of land at West Dapto, and...
BlueScope Steel Announces Lapse of 43,534 Conditional Rights
Jan 8, 2026
BlueScope Steel Limited has notified the market of a cessation of certain securities, with 43,534 conditional rights (ASX code: BSLAB) lapsing after the conditions attached to them were not satisfied or became incapable of being satisfied as of 12...
BlueScope Board Rejects ‘Opportunistic’ Takeover Bid from SGH–Steel Dynamics Consortium
Jan 7, 2026
BlueScope Steel’s board has unanimously rejected an unsolicited, non-binding takeover proposal from a consortium led by SGH Limited and Steel Dynamics that sought to acquire all shares via a scheme of arrangement at an effective price below ...
SGH and Steel Dynamics Launch $13.2bn Cash Bid for BlueScope Steel
Jan 5, 2026
SGH Ltd, a diversified Australian industrial and energy group, together with U.S.-based Steel Dynamics (SDI), has submitted a non-binding indicative all‑cash offer to acquire 100% of BlueScope Steel for AUD$30 per share, valuing the company ...
BlueScope Confirms $30-a-Share Takeover Approach from SGH–Steel Dynamics Consortium
Jan 5, 2026
BlueScope Steel has confirmed it received an unsolicited, non-binding and indicative proposal on 12 December 2025 from a consortium comprising Australia’s SGH Limited and US-based Steel Dynamics to acquire all BlueScope shares for $30.00 in ...
BlueScope Locks In $76m West Dapto Land Sale as Port Kembla Site Wins Rezoning Boost
Dec 29, 2025
BlueScope has exchanged contracts with one of Australia’s largest home builders to sell 33 hectares of residentially zoned land in West Dapto for $76 million, with settlement now expected in the second half of FY2026 rather than the first ha...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.