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Bluescope Steel Limited (AU:BSL)
ASX:BSL

Bluescope Steel (BSL) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:BSL

Bluescope Steel

(Sydney:BSL)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
AU$22.50
▼(-5.98% Downside)
Bluescope Steel's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including declining revenue and profitability. The technical analysis suggests a neutral trend with potential bearish momentum. Valuation concerns arise from a high P/E ratio, despite a moderate dividend yield. The lack of earnings call and corporate events data limits further insights.
Positive Factors
Strong Brand Recognition
Bluescope's strong brand recognition in its core products supports long-term customer loyalty and pricing power, which can enhance market position and revenue stability.
Strategic Partnerships
Strategic partnerships, like with Nippon Steel, enhance Bluescope's competitive edge and operational capabilities, providing access to new markets and technologies.
Low Leverage
A low debt-to-equity ratio provides Bluescope with financial flexibility and reduces risk, allowing for potential investment in growth opportunities without significant financial strain.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
Declining revenue indicates challenges in market demand or competitive pressures, which can impact long-term growth prospects and profitability if not addressed.
Reduced Profitability
A significant drop in net profit margin suggests operational inefficiencies and cost management issues, which could hinder long-term financial performance if not improved.
Decreased Free Cash Flow
Reduced free cash flow limits Bluescope's ability to invest in growth initiatives and return capital to shareholders, potentially impacting future expansion and shareholder value.

Bluescope Steel (BSL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Bluescope Steel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBluescope Steel (BSL) is a leading Australian steel producer with a significant presence in the Asia-Pacific region. The company operates in various sectors, including building and construction, manufacturing, and automotive industries. Bluescope is known for its core products, which include flat steel products, coated steels, and metallic coated products, as well as integrated manufacturing solutions tailored to meet customer needs.
How the Company Makes MoneyBluescope Steel generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of steel products. Its key revenue streams include the sale of flat steel products, coated steels, and value-added services to various industries, particularly in construction and manufacturing. The company's revenue is bolstered by strong demand in key markets, strategic partnerships with distributors and manufacturers, and a focus on innovation in product development. Additionally, Bluescope benefits from its operational efficiencies and cost management practices, which help maintain profitability in a competitive market.

Bluescope Steel Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 16, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
BlueScope demonstrated resilience and strategic foresight amidst significant macroeconomic challenges. While there were notable achievements in shareholder returns and strategic growth initiatives, performance in certain regions and segments, such as New Zealand and North American Coated Products, faced headwinds. The company's future outlook remains promising with targeted cost savings and strategic investments.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Resilient Performance Amid Challenging Conditions
BlueScope delivered an underlying EBIT of $309 million and a return on invested capital of 8.1% during the first half of FY '25, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.
Shareholder Returns and Strong Balance Sheet
The company returned $162 million to shareholders and maintained an $88 million net cash balance sheet. A fully franked interim dividend of $0.30 per share was also declared.
Cost and Productivity Program
BlueScope is underway with a $200 million cost and productivity program, aiming to deliver $500 million in incremental annual EBIT by 2030.
Growth Initiatives in North America
Targeting an annual EBIT improvement of over $200 million in North America through various projects, including the debottlenecking project at North Star.
Domestic Market Strength in Australia
Solid domestic market performance with COLORBOND steel sales increasing by 9% compared to the second half of '24.
Future Earnings Growth
BlueScope expects earnings growth in excess of $700 million over the next five years, driven by strategic investments and market improvements.
Negative Updates
Underperformance in New Zealand
New Zealand operations faced significant macroeconomic challenges, resulting in a near breakeven EBIT of $3 million.
Weaker U.S. Segment Performance
North American businesses reported a softer result with an underlying EBIT of $182 million, impacted by weaker spreads and margin normalization.
Mixed Safety Performance
While TRIFR reduced to 8.0%, it remains above the long-term range, and the potential severity measure increased slightly.
Challenges in Coated Products North America
The BlueScope Coated Products division continued to underperform, making a loss due to lower sales volumes.
Company Guidance
During the call, BlueScope's management provided guidance and discussed various metrics, highlighting the company's resilience amidst challenging macroeconomic conditions in the first half of FY '25. BlueScope achieved an underlying EBIT of $309 million and a return on invested capital of 8.1%. Shareholder returns totaled $162 million, with the company ending the period with an $88 million net cash balance. For the second half of FY '25, BlueScope expects underlying EBIT to be between $360 million and $430 million, driven by improved U.S. spreads, stronger domestic volumes in Australia, and benefits from a cost and productivity program. The company aims for $200 million in annual cost improvements by FY '26 and targets an incremental $500 million annual EBIT by 2030. Additionally, BlueScope announced a fully franked interim dividend of $0.30 per share and extended its buyback program, reflecting confidence in its strategic initiatives and growth opportunities.

Bluescope Steel Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Bluescope Steel faces challenges with declining revenue and profitability, as reflected in the income statement. The balance sheet remains strong with low leverage, but the return on equity has decreased. Cash flow generation is mixed, with strong operating cash flow but reduced free cash flow. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and improve profitability to enhance its financial performance.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Bluescope Steel's income statement reveals a challenging environment with declining revenue and profitability. The gross profit margin has decreased from 39.15% in 2024 to 36.95% in 2025, indicating pressure on cost management. Net profit margin has also significantly dropped from 4.72% to 0.52%, reflecting reduced profitability. The revenue growth rate is negative, showing a contraction in sales. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, suggesting operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet of Bluescope Steel shows a relatively stable financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.08, indicating conservative leverage. However, return on equity has decreased to 0.79% from 7.51% in the previous year, reflecting reduced profitability. The equity ratio remains healthy, suggesting a strong capital structure.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Bluescope Steel's cash flow statement shows mixed results. Operating cash flow remains strong, but free cash flow has decreased significantly. The free cash flow to net income ratio has dropped to 0.13, indicating less cash generation relative to net income. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, suggesting consistent cash flow generation from operations.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue16.29B16.25B17.06B18.17B18.99B12.87B
Gross Profit8.85B6.01B6.68B2.64B4.71B2.38B
EBITDA1.01B994.50M1.99B2.18B4.38B2.22B
Net Income83.80M83.80M805.70M1.01B2.81B1.19B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.78B15.78B15.68B15.94B16.61B13.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments857.60M857.60M1.09B1.49B1.68B1.96B
Total Debt886.00M886.00M721.50M786.50M1.32B1.16B
Total Liabilities4.51B4.51B4.39B4.90B6.16B4.99B
Stockholders Equity10.67B10.67B10.72B10.47B9.78B7.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow196.60M179.50M433.70M1.34B1.71B897.80M
Operating Cash Flow1.41B1.41B1.41B2.15B2.47B1.66B
Investing Cash Flow-1.24B-1.23B-967.00M-979.10M-1.76B-757.40M
Financing Cash Flow-412.10M-423.70M-849.20M-1.36B-1.05B-295.90M

Bluescope Steel Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price23.93
Price Trends
50DMA
22.66
Positive
100DMA
22.70
Positive
200DMA
22.74
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.34
Positive
RSI
56.56
Neutral
STOCH
53.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.73, above the 50-day MA of 22.66, and above the 200-day MA of 22.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BSL.

Bluescope Steel Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
AU$232.52M11.8325.46%7.52%-0.03%23.78%
71
Outperform
AU$3.22B23.468.25%3.74%0.40%-53.09%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
AU$1.08B68.409.13%0.82%-12.17%-61.32%
58
Neutral
AU$3.46B-204.790.14%1.28%3.98%70.79%
54
Neutral
AU$10.63B127.080.73%2.52%-4.46%-89.42%
52
Neutral
AU$507.58M-6.20-16.34%-48.05%-1394.34%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:BSL
Bluescope Steel
23.93
5.20
27.80%
AU:CIA
Champion Iron
6.01
0.58
10.58%
AU:MGX
Mount Gibson Iron Limited
0.43
0.13
44.07%
AU:SGM
Sims
17.94
6.46
56.29%
AU:BIS
Bisalloy Steel Group Ltd
4.72
0.83
21.34%
AU:VSL
Vulcan Steel Ltd.
7.38
0.48
6.96%

Bluescope Steel Corporate Events

Bluescope Steel Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Dec 4, 2025

Bluescope Steel Limited has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, reporting the acquisition of 50,323 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, bringing the total number of securities bought back to 65,460,609. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value, reflecting a strong financial position and confidence in its future prospects.

Bluescope Steel Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Dec 3, 2025

Bluescope Steel Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program, with a total of 65,418,759 securities bought back prior to the previous day and an additional 41,850 securities acquired on the previous day. This buy-back initiative reflects the company’s strategic focus on optimizing its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Alters Stake in BlueScope Steel
Dec 1, 2025

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. has ceased to be a substantial holder in BlueScope Steel Limited as of November 28, 2025. The change in their substantial holding status is due to various transactions involving the purchase and sale of securities by entities controlled by First Sentier Group Limited and Morgan Stanley, affecting the voting securities and shares held by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.

Citigroup Reduces Stake in Bluescope Steel
Nov 28, 2025

Citigroup Global Markets Australia Pty Limited and its related entities have ceased to be substantial holders of Bluescope Steel Ltd as of November 26, 2025. This change reflects a significant reduction in their relevant interest in Bluescope’s ordinary fully paid shares, which could impact the company’s shareholder composition and influence in the market.

BlueScope Steel Highlights Innovation and Sustainability in New Zealand Site Visit
Nov 26, 2025

BlueScope Steel Limited recently held a site visit in New Zealand, showcasing its COLORSTEEL® product featured in a property development. This event underscores BlueScope’s commitment to sustainability and innovation in the steel industry, potentially enhancing its market position and stakeholder confidence.

Bluescope Steel Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Nov 25, 2025

Bluescope Steel Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program, with a total of 65,375,492 securities bought back before the previous day and an additional 1,267 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of Bluescope’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value, reflecting the company’s robust financial position and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

Bluescope Steel Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Nov 24, 2025

Bluescope Steel Limited has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, with a total of 65,345,492 securities bought back prior to the previous day and an additional 30,000 securities acquired on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting a proactive approach in managing its financial resources.

BlueScope Steel Continues Strategic Buy-Back Program
Nov 23, 2025

BlueScope Steel Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of November 24, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 65,345,492 ordinary fully paid securities, including 60,000 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of BlueScope’s strategy to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value.

Bluescope Steel Updates on Daily Buy-Back Progress
Nov 20, 2025

Bluescope Steel Limited has announced a daily update on its ongoing on-market buy-back program, revealing that a total of 65,240,492 securities have been bought back before the previous day, with an additional 45,000 securities purchased on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Bluescope Steel Unveils Strategic Operational Enhancements
Nov 20, 2025

Bluescope Steel has announced significant changes in its operational strategy, focusing on enhancing its production capabilities and market presence. The company aims to strengthen its industry positioning through strategic investments and partnerships, which are expected to have a positive impact on its stakeholders and future growth prospects.

Ewen Crouch Steps Down as Director of BlueScope Steel
Nov 20, 2025

BlueScope Steel Limited announced that Ewen Crouch has ceased to be a director as of November 18, 2025. The announcement details Crouch’s relevant interests in securities, including holdings through trusts, which include 13,215 ordinary shares held by Pacific Custodian Pty Ltd as trustee of the BlueScope Steel Employee Share Plan Trust and 32,500 ordinary shares held by Wersley Pty Limited as trustee for Crouch Investment Trust. This change in directorship may impact the company’s governance and strategic direction.

Bluescope Steel Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Nov 19, 2025

Bluescope Steel Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of November 20, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 65,196,391 ordinary fully paid securities, with 44,101 bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of Bluescope’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

BlueScope Steel’s 2025 AGM Resolutions Passed Successfully
Nov 18, 2025

BlueScope Steel Limited announced that all resolutions at its 2025 Annual General Meeting were successfully passed by shareholders. This includes the re-election and election of several directors and the adoption of the remuneration report. The approval of these resolutions reflects shareholder confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction, potentially strengthening BlueScope’s position in the steel industry and positively impacting its stakeholders.

BlueScope Steel Highlights Strategic Remuneration Framework at AGM
Nov 18, 2025

BlueScope Steel’s recent Annual General Meeting highlighted the company’s remuneration framework, which is designed to attract and retain talent while aligning with strategic priorities. The Board exercised discretion in adjusting the CEO’s short-term incentive due to performance and impairment impacts, while long-term incentives showed strong results with a high return on invested capital. The company plans no changes to the remuneration framework for FY26, emphasizing its alignment with market expectations and shareholder interests.

BlueScope Steel’s 2025 AGM: Safety, Sustainability, and Strategic Shifts
Nov 18, 2025

BlueScope Steel’s 2025 Annual General Meeting highlighted the company’s commitment to safety and sustainability, despite facing challenges such as cyclical soft conditions and cost escalations. The company reported an underlying EBIT of $738 million and shareholder returns of $293 million, supported by cost savings and a robust balance sheet. Key developments include the sale of its stake in the Tata BlueScope joint venture, progress in sustainability projects, and leadership changes with Tania Archibald stepping in as CEO. The company remains focused on growth and addressing energy cost challenges in Australia.

BlueScope Steel Demonstrates Resilience Amidst Global Challenges
Nov 18, 2025

At its 2025 Annual General Meeting, BlueScope Steel reported a resilient performance despite global economic challenges, with an underlying EBIT of $738 million and a 60 cents per share dividend. The company is focusing on a strategy of transformation, growth, and delivery, with a $2.3 billion investment pipeline and initiatives aimed at cost improvements and growth. BlueScope is also committed to its 2030 emissions reduction targets and 2050 net zero goal, exploring innovative technologies for decarbonization. The company is undergoing leadership changes, with Tania Archibald set to succeed Mark Vassella as CEO, ensuring a seamless transition and continued focus on safety, sustainability, and operational excellence.

BlueScope Sells 50% Stake in Tata BlueScope Joint Venture
Nov 12, 2025

BlueScope Steel has announced the sale of its 50% stake in the Tata BlueScope Steel joint venture to Tata Steel. This transaction, expected to yield net proceeds of $179 million and a net profit of $70 million after taxes, allows BlueScope to focus on growth investments and initiatives within its strategic portfolio, while recognizing the value created over two decades of partnership.

BlueScope Steel Appoints Tania Archibald as New CEO
Nov 4, 2025

BlueScope Steel has announced the appointment of Tania Archibald as the new Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, succeeding Mark Vassella who will retire after eight years of leadership. Archibald, currently leading BlueScope’s Australian Steel Products business, brings a wealth of experience from her 30-year career at the company, including roles in finance, strategy, and business development. Her appointment is expected to drive the next phase of BlueScope’s strategy, focusing on sustainability, financial resilience, and operational excellence. The transition comes after a comprehensive global search and is seen as a positive step for the company’s future, with stakeholders expressing confidence in Archibald’s leadership capabilities.

BlueScope Steel Appoints New Director to Strengthen Leadership
Oct 2, 2025

BlueScope Steel Limited has announced the appointment of Cheri Marie Phyfer as a new director, effective October 1, 2025. This appointment is part of the company’s strategic efforts to strengthen its leadership team, potentially impacting its operational strategies and enhancing its industry positioning.

BlueScope Steel Announces 2025 Hybrid Annual General Meeting
Oct 2, 2025

BlueScope Steel Limited has announced that its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM) will be held as a hybrid event on November 18, 2025. The company has provided shareholders with various documents related to the AGM, including a notice of the meeting, a sample proxy form, and a virtual meeting guide. These documents will be dispatched to shareholders on October 14, 2025, and are available on the company’s website. This announcement reflects BlueScope’s commitment to engaging with its shareholders and ensuring transparency in its operations.

BlueScope Steel Announces Board Changes with New Director Nomination
Oct 2, 2025

BlueScope Steel has announced changes to its Board of Directors, with Peter Alexander retiring and John Nowlan standing for election as a non-independent non-executive director. Nowlan, who recently retired from a nearly 50-year career at BlueScope, is expected to bring valuable industry and operational experience to the Board, supporting the company’s growth and strategic execution while maintaining a majority of independent directors.

BlueScope Steel Releases FY2025 Sustainability Report
Sep 15, 2025

BlueScope Steel Limited has released its FY2025 Sustainability Report and Sustainability Data Supplement, highlighting the company’s ongoing commitment to sustainable practices. This release underscores BlueScope’s strategic focus on sustainability, which is expected to enhance its industry positioning and provide valuable insights for stakeholders regarding the company’s environmental and operational initiatives.

BlueScope Steel Announces Cessation of Securities
Sep 8, 2025

BlueScope Steel Limited announced the cessation of 129,243 securities due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This announcement may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting on the company’s operational adjustments and strategic decisions in managing its securities.

BlueScope Steel Announces Director’s Share Acquisition
Sep 8, 2025

BlueScope Steel Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically concerning Mark Vassella. The change involved the acquisition of 143,415 ordinary shares by Mr. Vassella’s family trust, Allessav Nominees Pty Ltd, increasing their total indirect holdings. This acquisition reflects the vesting of rights and suggests a strategic alignment with the company’s performance goals, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder confidence.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 28, 2025