Bluescope Steel Limited (AU:BSL)
ASX:BSL
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Bluescope Steel
(Sydney:BSL)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
AU$36.00
▲(25.92% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance (profitability and revenue pressure despite a strong balance sheet), partially offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Earnings call guidance and capital return plans are supportive but balanced by near-term headwinds (low spreads, transition losses, peak CapEx), while technical indicators are broadly neutral.
Positive Factors
Strong balance sheet & liquidity
Near-zero net debt and large liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund capital projects, support a sizeable shareholder return program, and absorb cyclical downturns without forcing asset sales or emergency capital raises, preserving strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Sharp margin deterioration
Material compression in gross and net margins indicates persistent pressure on realizations and cost absorption, weakening ROE and free cash flow conversion. Restoring margins will require sustained improved spreads, higher utilization or continued structural cost gains.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong balance sheet & liquidity
Near-zero net debt and large liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund capital projects, support a sizeable shareholder return program, and absorb cyclical downturns without forcing asset sales or emergency capital raises, preserving strategic optionality.
Read all positive factors
Bluescope Steel (BSL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$14.77B
Dividend Yield2.48%
Average Volume (3M)3.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)49.1
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth1.24%
EPS Growth-45.43%
CountryAU
Employees16,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.67
Shares Outstanding438,077,420
10 Day Avg. Volume2,079,311
30 Day Avg. Volume3,951,276
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.35
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio56.51
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$34.05Price Target Upside19.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$16.55B
Bluescope Steel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BlueScope Steel Limited, an Australian enterprise founded in 1885 and headquartered in Melbourne, specializes in the global production and distribution of metal-coated and painted steel goods designed for various construction and manufacturing app...
How the Company Makes Money
BlueScope primarily makes money by producing steel and processing it into higher-value coated and painted products, then selling those products into construction and industrial end markets. Key revenue streams include: (1) Steelmaking and flat ste...
Bluescope Steel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 15, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced strong operational and financial progress — material underlying EBIT growth, near-zero net debt, clear project completions and a substantial step-up in shareholder returns — against notable near-term headwinds including a tragic safety incident, persistent low Asian steel spreads, transitional impacts in New Zealand and a still loss‑making BCP business. Management provided credible delivery milestones (project capacities, cost programs, property realization) and conservative guidance assumptions, and signaled a shift from investment to returns backed by a prudent (if higher) leverage tolerance.Positive Updates
Strong Group Underlying Profit Performance
Underlying EBIT of $558 million in H1 FY26, up $249 million (+~81% year-on-year from ~$309m) demonstrating portfolio strength; reported net profit after tax $391 million.
Negative Updates
Fatal Safety Incident at Port Kembla
Tragic loss of a contractor during the #6 blast furnace reline project (November). Safe Work NSW investigation ongoing; company emphasized safety refocus and highest priority on improving safety performance.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Underlying Profit Performance
Underlying EBIT of $558 million in H1 FY26, up $249 million (+~81% year-on-year from ~$309m) demonstrating portfolio strength; reported net profit after tax $391 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided H2 FY26 underlying EBIT of $620–700 million (H1 was $558m; reported NPAT $391m) on a $0.70 FX assumption, noting exposure to spreads and market conditions; group ROIC was 8.1% (North America 13.6%, Asia 17.5%), net debt at the half was ~$2m with ~$3.2bn liquidity and CapEx of $681m in H1 (CapEx expected to peak this year and step down into H1 FY27). They reset capital management to target net debt up to $1.5bn (previously $400–800m) and at least 75% of free cash flow to shareholders, planning $3.00 per share in calendar 2026 (comprised of a $1.00 special, $1.30 annual ordinary including a $0.65 interim, plus $0.70 via a ~$310m buyback) and >$1.3bn total distributions; growth targets include a $500m EBIT uplift to 2030 (> $200m North America, > $125m Australia, ~ $150m Asia/NZ), operational capacity adds of +300k tpa at North Star and +240k tpa from Metal Coating Line #7, $190m delivered of a $200m cost program and a new $150m cost program to hit full run rate by FY27, and acceleration of a ~1,200‑hectare surplus land program (e.g., 33ha West Dapto sold for $76m).Bluescope Steel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.61B | 16.25B | 17.06B | 18.17B | 18.99B | 12.87B |
| Gross Profit | 2.11B | 6.01B | 6.68B | 2.64B | 4.71B | 2.38B |
| EBITDA | 1.17B | 994.50M | 1.99B | 2.18B | 4.38B | 2.22B |
| Net Income | 295.50M | 83.80M | 805.70M | 1.01B | 2.81B | 1.19B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.78B | 15.78B | 15.68B | 15.94B | 16.61B | 13.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.08B | 857.60M | 1.09B | 1.49B | 1.68B | 1.96B |
| Total Debt | 1.56B | 886.00M | 721.50M | 786.50M | 1.32B | 1.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.37B | 4.51B | 4.39B | 4.90B | 6.16B | 4.99B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.78B | 10.67B | 10.72B | 10.47B | 9.78B | 7.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 269.30M | 179.50M | 433.70M | 1.34B | 1.71B | 897.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.64B | 1.41B | 1.41B | 2.15B | 2.47B | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.22B | -1.23B | -967.00M | -979.10M | -1.76B | -757.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -133.30M | -423.70M | -849.20M | -1.36B | -1.05B | -295.90M |
Bluescope Steel Technical Analysis
Positive
28.59
Price Trends
30.71
Positive
29.15
Positive
25.89
Positive
Market Momentum
0.96
Negative
60.62
Neutral
73.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.46, below the 50-day MA of 30.71, and above the 200-day MA of 25.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BSL.
Bluescope Steel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | AU$216.18M | 11.06 | 24.98% | 7.62% | 3.98% | 18.90% | |
65 Neutral | AU$14.77B | 49.07 | 2.76% | 2.48% | 1.24% | -45.43% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
57 Neutral | AU$2.29B | 12.50 | 11.27% | 3.66% | 9.29% | 14.69% | |
57 Neutral | AU$5.78B | -97.29 | -2.29% | 1.27% | 12.84% | 47.94% | |
52 Neutral | AU$419.05M | -13.37 | -7.08% | ― | -24.05% | 84.19% | |
52 Neutral | AU$718.00M | 58.49 | 6.68% | 0.86% | -1.99% | -39.25% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:BSL
Bluescope Steel
33.24
12.26
58.42%
AU:CIA
Champion Iron
4.00
0.03
0.86%
AU:MGX
Mount Gibson Iron Limited
0.36
0.09
33.96%
AU:SGM
Sims
29.20
14.23
95.08%
AU:BIS
Bisalloy Steel Group Ltd
4.50
1.44
47.11%
AU:VSL
Vulcan Steel Ltd.
5.00
-0.16
-3.12%
Bluescope Steel Corporate Events
BlueScope Steel Appoints New Director With No Initial Shareholding
Jun 1, 2026
BlueScope Steel has announced the appointment of Michael John Morley as a director of the company, effective 1 June 2026. According to the initial director’s interest notice filed with the ASX, Morley holds no relevant interests in BlueScope...
BlueScope refreshes board and streamlines governance structure for next growth phase
May 22, 2026
BlueScope Steel has announced changes to its board, appointing Michael Morley as an independent non‑executive director from 1 June 2026, while long‑serving non‑executive director Rebecca Dee‑Bradbury will retire following t...
Bluescope Steel Reports Lapse of 18,021 Conditional Rights
Apr 15, 2026
Bluescope Steel Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 18,021 rights (code BSLAB), which lapsed on 31 March 2026 after conditions attached to those rights were not satisfied or became incapable of being met. The announcement modestly ...
BlueScope Steel Issues New Ordinary Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Apr 13, 2026
BlueScope Steel Limited has notified the market of the issue of 11,640 fully paid ordinary shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted securities. The new shares, dated 31 March 2026, represent a small increase in the compan...
BlueScope Issues New Employee Incentive Rights
Apr 12, 2026
BlueScope Steel has notified the market of the issue of 25,241 unquoted rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 31 March 2026. The move underscores the company’s continued use of equity-based compensation to align staff interes...
BlueScope Names Robin Davies to Lead Australia and New Zealand Operations
Mar 29, 2026
BlueScope Steel has appointed Robin Davies as Chief Executive of its Australian and New Zealand businesses, consolidating leadership across operations that generate more than 3.7 million tonnes of steel and over $7 billion in revenue. Davies, a ne...
BlueScope accelerates value drive from surplus industrial land portfolio
Mar 26, 2026
BlueScope Steel is leveraging its sizeable surplus industrial land holdings in New South Wales, Victoria and New Zealand to generate additional value alongside its core steelmaking operations. Located in high-demand industrial corridors, more than...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.