Want to see AU:BSL full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Bluescope Steel
(Sydney:BSL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
AU$36.00
▲(12.08% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance (profitability and revenue pressure despite a strong balance sheet), partially offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Earnings call guidance and capital return plans are supportive but balanced by near-term headwinds (low spreads, transition losses, peak CapEx), while technical indicators are broadly neutral.
Positive Factors
Strong balance sheet & liquidity
Extremely low net debt and ~A$3.2bn liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund projects, sustain distributions and absorb cyclical swings. This balance sheet strength supports execution of capex, buybacks and a higher payout policy without forcing distressed asset sales.
Negative Factors
Declining profitability and margins
Sharp margin erosion and falling profitability indicate structural pressure on unit economics. Lower margins compress returns, weaken ROE and limit ability to self-fund growth. Sustained margin pressure risks reversing recent operational gains absent durable pricing or cost improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong balance sheet & liquidity
Extremely low net debt and ~A$3.2bn liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund projects, sustain distributions and absorb cyclical swings. This balance sheet strength supports execution of capex, buybacks and a higher payout policy without forcing distressed asset sales.
Read all positive factors
Bluescope Steel (BSL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$14.76B
Dividend Yield5.79%
Average Volume (3M)3.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)48.2
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth2.39%
EPS Growth860.73%
CountryAU
Employees16,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.67
Shares Outstanding438,077,420
10 Day Avg. Volume2,079,311
30 Day Avg. Volume3,951,276
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.36
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio56.51
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$36.65Price Target Upside14.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$17.33B
Bluescope Steel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BlueScope Steel Limited, an Australian enterprise founded in 1885 and headquartered in Melbourne, specializes in the global production and distribution of metal-coated and painted steel goods designed for various construction and manufacturing app...
How the Company Makes Money
BlueScope makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling steel products and by converting steel into higher-value coated, painted, and formed building products.
Key revenue streams include:
- Steelmaking and sale of flat steel products: BlueS...
Bluescope Steel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 16, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 15, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights substantial progress against strategic priorities: strong FY '26 earnings (underlying EBIT $1.27B), material shareholder returns ($3 per share in CY2026 and planned repeat in CY2027), completion and outperformance of cost-out programs, and important project milestones (MCL7, Glenbrook EAF, North Star debottleneck). Regional strengths — notably North Star/North America and record Southeast Asia performance — underpin improved profitability and a stronger balance sheet (net debt $600M). Headwinds remain: safety concerns following a fatality, subdued Asian spreads driven by China overcapacity, transitional impacts and cost escalation on major projects, near-term NZ earnings pressure from EAF commissioning, and the drag of peak CapEx on free cash flow. Overall the positive operational and financial achievements (profit, cash generation trajectory, cost savings and shareholder returns) outweigh the challenges and transitional risks.Positive Updates
Strong Group Profitability
Underlying EBIT of $1.27 billion for FY '26 and underlying NPAT just over $800 million, with second-half EBIT of $716 million (above guidance range).
Negative Updates
Serious Safety Incident
Tragic loss of a contractor at Port Kembla in November; safety performance acknowledged as 'not yet where it needs to be' and incident under regulatory investigation.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Profitability
Underlying EBIT of $1.27 billion for FY '26 and underlying NPAT just over $800 million, with second-half EBIT of $716 million (above guidance range).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
BlueScope guided 1H FY27 underlying EBIT of $860–$960 million (subject to spreads, FX and market conditions), saying North America should be >1/3 higher than 2H FY26, Australia ~2/3 higher, New Zealand & Pacific ~1/3 lower, Asia broadly in line and corporate approaching ~3x 2H FY26 (reflecting the non‑repeat of a $76 million land profit). Management reiterated a plan to deliver at least $3.00 per share in calendar 2027 (having delivered $3.00 in CY26), flagged a year‑end net debt of ~$600 million and FY26 free cash flow of $240 million, confirmed a minimum 75% payout policy of operating cash flow less sustaining CapEx, and said FY27 CapEx remains elevated as the major program finishes (management indicated just over $1.0 billion of CapEx for FY27 with ~ $600m+ in 1H).Bluescope Steel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.61B | 16.25B | 17.06B | 18.17B | 18.99B | 12.87B |
| Gross Profit | 2.11B | 6.01B | 6.68B | 2.64B | 4.71B | 2.38B |
| EBITDA | 1.17B | 994.50M | 1.99B | 2.18B | 4.38B | 2.22B |
| Net Income | 295.50M | 83.80M | 805.70M | 1.01B | 2.81B | 1.19B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.78B | 15.78B | 15.68B | 15.94B | 16.61B | 13.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.08B | 857.60M | 1.09B | 1.49B | 1.68B | 1.96B |
| Total Debt | 1.56B | 886.00M | 721.50M | 786.50M | 1.32B | 1.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.37B | 4.51B | 4.39B | 4.90B | 6.16B | 4.99B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.78B | 10.67B | 10.72B | 10.47B | 9.78B | 7.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 269.30M | 179.50M | 433.70M | 1.34B | 1.71B | 897.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.64B | 1.41B | 1.41B | 2.15B | 2.47B | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.22B | -1.23B | -967.00M | -979.10M | -1.76B | -757.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -133.30M | -423.70M | -849.20M | -1.36B | -1.05B | -295.90M |
Bluescope Steel Technical Analysis
Positive
32.12
Price Trends
32.90
Positive
31.14
Positive
28.27
Positive
Market Momentum
0.58
Negative
53.24
Neutral
48.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.34, below the 50-day MA of 32.90, and above the 200-day MA of 28.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BSL.
Bluescope Steel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | AU$236.84M | 11.80 | 24.98% | 9.45% | 3.98% | 18.90% | |
65 Neutral | AU$14.76B | 48.18 | 2.76% | 5.93% | 2.39% | 860.73% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | AU$5.10B | -71.90 | -2.29% | 1.03% | 12.84% | 47.94% | |
52 Neutral | AU$1.92B | 16.94 | 6.80% | 3.35% | 9.88% | 22.36% | |
52 Neutral | AU$401.35M | -12.97 | -7.08% | ― | -24.05% | 84.19% | |
52 Neutral | AU$759.03M | 56.41 | 6.68% | 0.86% | -1.99% | -39.25% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:BSL
Bluescope Steel
32.94
11.01
50.18%
AU:CIA
Champion Iron
3.45
-0.79
-18.61%
AU:MGX
Mount Gibson Iron Limited
0.35
-0.06
-13.75%
AU:SGM
Sims
25.82
10.76
71.48%
AU:BIS
Bisalloy Steel Group Ltd
4.84
0.58
13.48%
AU:VSL
Vulcan Steel Ltd.
5.17
-1.28
-19.80%
Bluescope Steel Corporate Events
L1 Capital exits substantial holding in BlueScope Steel
Jul 23, 2026
Investment firm L1 Capital Pty Ltd and its affiliate L1 Capital Strategic Equity Management Pty Ltd have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in BlueScope Steel Limited under Australia’s Corporations Act discl...
BlueScope Sets Out Indicative 2027 Financial and Governance Calendar
Jul 22, 2026
BlueScope Steel has outlined its indicative financial calendar for 2027, setting dates for the release of half-year and full-year results, potential interim and final dividend announcements, and associated ex-dividend and record dates. The schedul...
BlueScope Steel Reports Lapse of Conditional Rights Securities
Jul 13, 2026
BlueScope Steel has notified the market of the cessation of 23,833 rights securities, identified under the ASX code BSLAB. The rights lapsed on 30 June 2026 after the specified conditions for conversion into securities were not met or became incap...
Bluescope Steel Flags Minor Share Issue From Convertible Securities
Jul 8, 2026
Bluescope Steel has notified the market of the issue of 916 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted securities. The small share issuance, dated April 16, 2026 and disclosed on July 9, 2026, reflects r...
BlueScope Steel Appoints New Director With No Initial Shareholding
Jun 1, 2026
BlueScope Steel has announced the appointment of Michael John Morley as a director of the company, effective 1 June 2026. According to the initial director’s interest notice filed with the ASX, Morley holds no relevant interests in BlueScope...
BlueScope refreshes board and streamlines governance structure for next growth phase
May 22, 2026
BlueScope Steel has announced changes to its board, appointing Michael Morley as an independent non‑executive director from 1 June 2026, while long‑serving non‑executive director Rebecca Dee‑Bradbury will retire following t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.