Champion Iron (CIA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.28B
• Dividend Yield: 5.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.82M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.76
• Revenue Growth: -9.27%
• EPS Growth: -56.88%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 1,014
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 533,251,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,491,612
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,818,377
• PEG Ratio: -0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -56.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$6.68
• Price Target Upside: 56.02% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Champion Iron Ltd. is currently facing challenges with declining profitability and cash flow constraints, reflected in its financial performance score. The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with potential for being oversold, offering some rebound potential. The stock's valuation is reasonable, supported by a robust dividend yield. Despite recent operational disruptions, strategic initiatives and partnerships offer future growth opportunities. However, high operating costs and increased leverage pose risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Champion reported FQ4/25 EBITDA of C$127M, a 6% beat to our estimate and 8% higher than consensus.

Operational Performance

Shipments from Bloom Lake exceeded expectations for the second quarter in a row, indicating improved rail capacity and strong operational performance.

Project Management

The DRPF project remains on track for year-end completion, indicating good project management and future growth potential.

Negative Factors

Cash Balance

The cash balance declined by $91 million in the quarter, driven by working capital increases, capital spend on equipment and railcars, the dividend payment, and ongoing spending on the DRPF project.

Cost Estimates

Near-term cost estimates have been increased, negatively impacting FY25/26 EBITDA.

Pricing Impact

Financial results were impacted by a lower average realized price, an artifact of volatile iron ore prices and pressure on Chinese steel mills.

Champion Iron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Champion Iron Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of iron ore deposits in Canada. Its flagship projects include the Bloom Lake Mine located in south end of the Labrador; the Consolidated Fire Lake North project that includes the Fire Lake North, Don Lake, Bellechasse, and Oil Can deposits situated in Quebec; and the Kamistiatusset project located in the Labrador. The company sells its iron ore concentrate in China, Japan, the Middle East, Europe, South Korea, India, and internationally. Champion Iron Limited is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Champion Iron Ltd. makes money through the extraction, processing, and sale of iron ore. The company generates revenue by selling its high-grade iron ore concentrate to steel producers primarily in international markets, including Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. The company's revenue streams are highly dependent on the global demand for steel, as well as the prevailing market prices for iron ore. Champion Iron's operations benefit from its strategic location, which allows for efficient transportation of its products to key markets. Additionally, the company's investments in technology and operational efficiencies help reduce costs and improve profitability. Significant partnerships with logistics and transportation providers also play a crucial role in ensuring the timely delivery of iron ore to its customers, further solidifying its revenue model.

Champion Iron Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Champion Iron Ltd. demonstrates strong operational efficiency with reasonable margins but faces challenges in revenue growth and cash flow generation. The balance sheet indicates increasing leverage, suggesting potential risks if profitability declines further. Overall, stability is evident but with concerns around cash flow and declining profitability.

Income Statement

The company shows a stable gross profit margin of 24.6% TTM, although it's slightly lower than the previous year. Net profit margin TTM is at 8.5%, reflecting profitability, but a significant decrease from the previous year. Revenue growth is slightly negative at -0.68% TTM, indicating a stagnation in sales. The EBIT margin stands at 19.2% TTM, and EBITDA margin at 27.0% TTM, suggesting good operational efficiency but declining from previous periods.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.58, indicating moderate leverage, which is manageable but has been increasing over time. ROE is 9.2% TTM, showing a reasonable return on equity, although declining. The equity ratio of 47.3% TTM indicates a balanced capital structure, though slightly decreased.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow is negative TTM, showing a challenge in generating free cash after investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.02 TTM, indicating strong cash flow generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.51B	1.52B	1.40B	1.46B	1.28B	785.09M
Gross Profit	373.08M	629.76M	451.28M	958.20M	817.76M	363.72M
EBITDA	408.49M	555.41M	481.68M	916.31M	803.79M	346.53M
Net Income	128.70M	234.19M	200.71M	522.59M	464.43M	89.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.95B	2.69B	2.32B	1.99B	1.50B	882.60M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	93.10M	400.06M	327.12M	352.67M	636.52M	298.65M
Total Debt	808.28M	616.41M	562.12M	377.34M	216.85M	278.86M
Total Liabilities	1.55B	1.29B	1.05B	827.53M	643.89M	505.98M
Stockholders Equity	1.40B	1.40B	1.26B	1.16B	853.02M	376.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-322.03M	131.31M	-58.68M	-53.95M	446.54M	156.06M
Operating Cash Flow	260.11M	474.58M	235.98M	470.44M	623.48M	309.57M
Investing Cash Flow	-590.82M	-354.72M	-249.86M	-635.47M	-244.14M	-152.89M
Financing Cash Flow	23.82M	-48.36M	6.90M	-118.14M	-26.30M	-14.89M

Champion Iron Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.28
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CIA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.21, below the 50-day MA of 4.30, and below the 200-day MA of 5.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:CIA.

Champion Iron Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CIA	61 Neutral	C$2.28B	14.16	10.03%	5.52%	-9.27%	-56.88%
Sector *	44 Neutral	C$953.01M	-6.70	-13.31%	2.79%	17.55%	-32.28%
IRNRF		$13.53M	5.33	4.26%	―	―	―
MTGRF		$215.74M	65.86	-35.86%	―	―	―
GWR	47 Neutral	AU$29.45M	1.45	17.20%	―	―	―
M4M	34 Underperform	AU$35.81M	―	-277.03%	―	―	-540.00%
TI1		AU$30.22M	―		―	―	―

Champion Iron Corporate Events

Champion Iron Ltd. Announces Director’s Interest Change

Champion Iron Ltd. announced a change in the director’s interest, with Ronald Hugh Beevor acquiring 19,378 deferred share units (DSUs) under the 2018 Omnibus Incentive Plan. This change reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning the interests of its leadership with shareholder value, potentially impacting its governance and stakeholder trust positively.

Champion Iron Director Increases Stake with New DSUs

Champion Iron Ltd. announced a change in the director’s interest, with Jessica McDonald acquiring an additional 15,134 Deferred Share Units (DSUs) under the 2018 Omnibus Incentive Plan. This acquisition increases her total holdings to 47,260 DSUs, reflecting a strategic move to align director interests with company performance.

Champion Iron Announces Director’s Interest Change

Champion Iron Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically regarding Louise Grondin. The company, which operates in the iron ore industry, focuses on the exploration and development of iron ore deposits. The announcement details that Louise Grondin has acquired an additional 13,383 Deferred Share Units (DSUs) under the company’s 2018 Omnibus Incentive Plan, increasing her total holdings to 118,092 DSUs. This change reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning director interests with shareholder value.

Champion Iron Ltd. Updates Director’s Interest with New DSU Acquisition

Champion Iron Ltd. has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically regarding Michelle Cormier’s holdings. The change involves the acquisition of 16,060 Deferred Share Units (DSUs) under the company’s 2018 Omnibus Incentive Plan, increasing her total DSUs to 129,621. This adjustment reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning its executive compensation with shareholder interests, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions positively.

Champion Iron Ltd. Announces Director’s Interest Change

Champion Iron Ltd. has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically involving Gary Lawler. On March 31, 2025, Lawler acquired 18,840 deferred share units (DSUs) under the company’s 2018 Omnibus Incentive Plan, valued at A$5.27 each. This change reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning its leadership’s interests with its strategic goals, potentially impacting its market perception and shareholder confidence.

Champion Iron Issues Deferred Share Units for Employee Incentive

Champion Iron Ltd. announced the issuance of 82,795 deferred share units as part of an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and not intended for trading on the ASX, reflecting the company’s strategy to incentivize and retain its workforce, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and employee satisfaction.

Champion Iron Ltd. Announces Change in Substantial Holder Interests

Champion Iron Ltd. has announced a change in the interests of a substantial holder, with State Street Bank and Trust Company and its associates holding significant voting power in the company. This change reflects the dynamic nature of shareholder interests and could impact the company’s governance and decision-making processes, potentially influencing its market strategy and stakeholder relations.

Champion Iron Ltd. Director Increases Stake

Champion Iron Ltd. announced a change in the director’s interest, with Michael O’Keeffe acquiring an additional 100,000 ordinary shares, bringing his total to 6,851,900 shares. This acquisition, conducted through an on-market trade, reflects the director’s increased investment in the company, potentially signaling confidence in its future performance and stability, which could have positive implications for stakeholders.

Champion Iron Advances Strategic Projects Amid Stable Iron Ore Market

Champion Iron Ltd. reported its third-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, noting stable sales despite a brief equipment breakdown at Bloom Lake. The company achieved record monthly sales in November 2024 and plans to enhance railway capabilities with 400 new railcars. Significant progress has been made in its Kami Project through a partnership with Nippon Steel and Sojitz Corporation, securing a $245M investment for a 49% equity stake. Additionally, the Direct Reduction Pellet Feed Project at Bloom Lake is advancing, positioning Champion to enter new markets and support industry decarbonization goals. Global iron ore prices saw a slight rebound supported by Chinese economic measures, stabilizing around $100/dmt.