Champion Iron Ltd. (AU:CIA)
ASX:CIA
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Champion Iron
(Sydney:CIA)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.00
▲(1.21% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:01/31/26
The score is held back primarily by softened financial quality versus peak years (margin compression, higher leverage, and near-zero free cash flow) and weak near-term technical momentum (below key moving averages with low RSI/Stoch). Offsetting factors include a constructive earnings-call outlook with strong operations, project progress and robust liquidity, plus a reasonable valuation supported by a ~3.8% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong production and sales volumes
Sustained output near 3.7–3.9Mt per quarter establishes a durable revenue base and supports fixed-cost absorption. Large, consistent volumes and a pipeline of tonnes in transit improve margin sustainability, revenue predictability, and long-term cash generation through operating leverage.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage reduces flexibility
Higher leverage materially lowers balance‑sheet flexibility in a cyclical commodity business. With debt elevated versus prior years, the company has less buffer to absorb price downturns or fund opportunistic investments without increasing financing costs or diluting shareholders.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong production and sales volumes
Sustained output near 3.7–3.9Mt per quarter establishes a durable revenue base and supports fixed-cost absorption. Large, consistent volumes and a pipeline of tonnes in transit improve margin sustainability, revenue predictability, and long-term cash generation through operating leverage.
Read all positive factors
Champion Iron (CIA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$2.69B
Dividend Yield3.66%
Average Volume (3M)1.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.4
Beta (1Y)1.37
Revenue Growth17.85%
EPS Growth40.09%
CountryAU
Employees1,014
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.35
Shares Outstanding560,046,940
10 Day Avg. Volume1,878,628
30 Day Avg. Volume1,903,879
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.16
Price to Book (P/B)2.49
Price to Sales (P/S)2.28
P/FCF Ratio26.45
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$6.67Price Target Upside34.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$2.07B
Champion Iron Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Champion Iron Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of iron ore deposits in Canada. Its flagship projects include the Bloom Lake Mine located in south end of the Labrador; the Consolidated Fire Lake North pro...
How the Company Makes Money
Champion Iron makes money primarily by selling iron ore concentrate produced from its operations (notably Bloom Lake). Revenue is recognized based on shipped and/or delivered volumes (per the applicable sales terms) multiplied by the realized sale...
Champion Iron Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents predominantly positive operational and strategic progress: production and sales volumes were strong, cash costs declined to below $74/tonne, financials (revenues $470M, EBITDA $150M, net income $65M) are solid, liquidity is robust (~$1.1B including working capital), the DRPF project is near commissioning with first tonnes expected H1 and ramp to nameplate over ~12 months, and a fully financed acquisition (Rana Gruber) strengthens European access and adds ~2Mt. Near-term headwinds are manageable: a short ship-loader outage, elevated port inventories that will take ~2 quarters to destage, rail/winter logistics constraints, provisional price adjustments causing a slight QoQ EBITDA dip, and trial discounts expected on initial DRPF cargoes. Overall, the positives (operational improvements, project progress, financing/strategic M&A and liquidity) outweigh the contained near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Production and Sales Volumes
Quarterly concentrate production ~3.7 million tonnes and sales just shy of 3.9 million tonnes, with ~2.5 million tonnes in transit at period end.
Negative Updates
Quarterly EBITDA Slightly Lower QoQ
EBITDA was a little less than the previous quarter, primarily driven by provisional price adjustments and some realized discounts on spot sales.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production and Sales Volumes
Quarterly concentrate production ~3.7 million tonnes and sales just shy of 3.9 million tonnes, with ~2.5 million tonnes in transit at period end.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the Q3 FY2026 call Champion guided that operations remain on track: quarterly concentrate production was ~3.7 Mt and sales were just under 3.9 Mt (with ~2.5 Mt in transit, provisionally valued at ~US$117/t), inventories were rebalanced with a 1.1 Mt drawdown at Bloom Lake to ~0.6 Mt and ~0.9 Mt at the port (vessels ≈200 kt each), P65 averaged ~US$118/t (+1%) while C3 freight rose ~2%, provisional price adjustments were ~US$3.3M (≈$0.80/t on sold tonnes), realized net price was ~CAD121/t, cash cost delivered in-ship was just under CAD74/t, and Q3 financials were revenues ≈$470M, EBITDA ≈$150M, net income ≈$65M with cash ≈$245M (and total cash, cash equivalents and working capital including available facilities of ~$1.1B). Major project guidance: the DRPF remains on a ~CAD$500M capex target, first tonnes and first vessel expected in H1 (commercial ramp to nameplate over ~12 months, with ~20 days of Phase‑2 tie‑in interruption), Bloom Lake debottlenecking target remains ~17–18 Mtpa long‑term, and the Rana Gruber acquisition is fully financed (≈US$39M cash, US$100M support from La Caisse, US$150M underwritten Scotiabank term loan).Champion Iron Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.79B | 1.61B | 1.40B | 1.46B | 1.28B | 655.13M |
| Gross Profit | 431.27M | 401.73M | 451.28M | 958.20M | 817.76M | 288.63M |
| EBITDA | 536.88M | 446.20M | 481.68M | 916.31M | 803.79M | 263.00M |
| Net Income | 186.01M | 142.04M | 200.71M | 522.59M | 464.43M | 83.05M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.43B | 3.03B | 2.32B | 1.99B | 1.50B | 672.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 245.46M | 117.45M | 327.12M | 352.67M | 636.52M | 153.33M |
| Total Debt | 1.14B | 758.91M | 562.12M | 377.34M | 216.85M | 240.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.92B | 1.59B | 1.05B | 827.53M | 643.89M | 456.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51B | 1.44B | 1.26B | 1.16B | 853.02M | 150.35M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.06M | -301.58M | -58.68M | -53.95M | 446.54M | 104.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 431.01M | 304.02M | 235.98M | 470.44M | 623.48M | 176.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -446.57M | -615.75M | -249.86M | -635.47M | -244.14M | -72.93M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 169.22M | 23.41M | 6.90M | -118.14M | -26.30M | 20.50M |
Champion Iron Technical Analysis
Negative
4.94
Price Trends
5.03
Negative
5.43
Negative
5.17
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Positive
40.41
Neutral
22.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CIA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.97, below the 50-day MA of 5.03, and below the 200-day MA of 5.17, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:CIA.
Champion Iron Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | AU$2.69B | 11.40 | 12.63% | 3.66% | 17.85% | 40.09% | |
57 Neutral | AU$11.65M | -0.05 | -111.00% | ― | ― | -1844.12% | |
52 Neutral | AU$407.25M | -6.44 | -7.08% | ― | -24.05% | 84.19% | |
51 Neutral | AU$152.78M | -0.21 | -260.59% | ― | -16.03% | -1005.11% | |
41 Neutral | AU$27.45M | -4.50 | -123.74% | ― | ― | 82.81% | |
| ― | AU$19.72M | -1.49 | -77.53% | ― | ― | -200.55% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:CIA
Champion Iron
4.81
0.54
12.65%
AU:IRD
Iron Road Ltd
0.01
-0.03
-68.18%
AU:MGX
Mount Gibson Iron Limited
0.35
0.05
16.95%
AU:M4M
Kogi Iron Ltd.
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:AEU
Tombador Iron Ltd.
0.39
0.04
11.43%
AU:EQX
Equatorial Resources Limited
0.15
<0.01
7.14%
Champion Iron Corporate Events
Champion Iron lifts output, advances DR pellet project and closes Rana Gruber deal
Apr 29, 2026
Champion Iron reported fiscal fourth-quarter production of 3.4 million wet metric tonnes of 66.2% iron ore concentrate and sales of 3.5 million dry metric tonnes, delivering higher output despite rail disruptions and harsh winter conditions. Cash ...
Champion Iron Boosts High-Grade Portfolio With Rana Gruber Deal and DR-Grade Expansion
Apr 13, 2026
Champion Iron reported strong third-quarter 2026 results, with 3.7 million wet metric tonnes of 66.5% iron ore concentrate produced and a record 3.9 million dry metric tonnes sold, aided by improved rail haulage and inventory drawdowns at Bloom La...
Champion Iron Confirms Compliance Following 26.8 Million-Share Placement
Apr 12, 2026
Champion Iron Limited has issued 26,795,921 new ordinary shares on April 10, 2026 in Montréal under a placement previously announced to the market, without requiring a prospectus disclosure to investors under the Corporations Act. The company...
Champion Iron Seeks ASX Quotation for 26.8 Million New Shares
Apr 12, 2026
Champion Iron Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 26,795,921 new fully paid ordinary shares, to be issued on April 10, 2026. The application indicates these securities result from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other...
Champion Iron Closes Rana Gruber Deal to Bolster High-Grade Iron Ore Portfolio
Apr 12, 2026
Champion Iron has completed its cash tender offer to acquire 92.48% of Norwegian miner Rana Gruber ASA, a producer of high-purity iron ore serving the European steel industry, and plans to compulsorily acquire the remaining shares and delist the c...
Champion Iron Reports Lapse of Performance and Restricted Share Units
Apr 8, 2026
Champion Iron Limited has notified the market of the cessation of certain equity-based incentive securities. The company reported that 24,008 performance share units and 16,005 restricted share units lapsed on February 18, 2026, after the conditio...
Champion Iron Updates Director Michelle Cormier’s Equity Holdings
Apr 2, 2026
Champion Iron Limited has disclosed a change in the securities held by director Michelle Cormier, in line with ASX listing rule 3.19A.2 requirements. The filing shows that Cormier received an issuance of 9,980 Deferred Share Units, increasing her ...
Champion Iron discloses director’s increased deferred share holdings
Apr 2, 2026
Champion Iron Limited has reported a change in the securities held by director Louise Grondin, in line with ASX disclosure rules. The filing details her updated holdings in the company’s deferred share units following an equity-based award.G...
Champion Iron Updates Director Jessica McDonald’s Equity Holdings
Apr 2, 2026
Champion Iron Limited reported a change in the securities held by director Jessica McDonald, reflecting an allocation under the company’s long-term incentive framework. McDonald received 14,107 Deferred Share Units at CAD5.01 each under the ...
Champion Iron Updates Director Gary Lawler’s Equity Holdings
Apr 2, 2026
Champion Iron Limited has disclosed a change in director Gary Lawler’s interests, reporting the issuance of 18,570 deferred share units under the company’s 2018 Omnibus Incentive Plan. The new units were issued at A$5.24 each, increasi...
Champion Iron Issues New Deferred Share Units Under Employee Incentive Plan
Apr 2, 2026
Champion Iron Limited has notified the market of the issue of 74,233 unquoted deferred share units under its employee incentive scheme, effective March 31, 2026. The new securities, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, form part of the ...
Champion Iron Sets Out Green Steel Strategy and Details Risks Around Rana Gruber Bid
Feb 22, 2026
Champion Iron, listed in Canada, Australia and on the OTCQX, operates in iron ore mining and processing with a focus on high-grade concentrate. The company is increasingly targeting low-carbon steelmaking markets, aiming to supply direct reduction...
Champion Iron Director Reduces Shareholding in On-Market Sales
Feb 10, 2026
Champion Iron has disclosed a change in director Gary Lawler’s interests in the company’s securities, following on-market sales conducted on 5, 6 and 9 February 2026. Lawler disposed of a total of 350,000 ordinary fully paid shares at ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.