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Kogi Iron Ltd. (AU:M4M)
ASX:M4M
Australian Market

Kogi Iron Ltd. (M4M) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:M4M

Kogi Iron Ltd.

(Sydney:M4M)

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Neutral 41 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.01
▲(0.00% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by extremely weak fundamentals—negligible revenue, large ongoing losses, and worsening cash burn—partly offset by low balance-sheet leverage. Valuation provides little support due to negative earnings and no dividend data, while technical conviction is limited by missing indicators and elevated beta (volatility risk).
Positive Factors
Low Balance-Sheet Leverage
Low leverage reduces financial risk, providing flexibility to manage ongoing losses and potential funding needs without excessive debt burden.
Strategic Partnerships
Strategic partnerships can enhance operational capabilities and market positioning, potentially leading to improved revenue and competitive advantage.
Director Alignment with Shareholders
Increased director shareholding aligns management's interests with shareholders, promoting decisions that enhance long-term shareholder value.
Negative Factors
Negligible Revenue
Negligible revenue indicates limited commercial operations, challenging the company's ability to generate sustainable cash flow and profitability.
Persistent Large Losses
Ongoing large losses erode equity and may necessitate additional funding, impacting financial stability and long-term viability.
Worsening Cash Burn
Increasing cash burn without revenue growth can lead to liquidity issues, requiring external funding and potentially diluting shareholder value.

Kogi Iron Ltd. (M4M) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Kogi Iron Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMacro Metals Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and evaluation of iron ore and other mineral properties in Australia and Nigeria. The company holds a 100% interest in the Agbaja iron ore and steel project located in Kogi State in the Republic of Nigeria; and interest in the Mogul VMS project located in Western Australia. It also owns a portfolio of 8 iron ore projects in the Pilbara and Mid West regions of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Kogi Iron Limited and changed its name to Macro Metals Limited in December 2022. Macro Metals Limited was incorporated in 1980 and is based in Peppermint Grove, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyKogi Iron Ltd. makes money by exploring and developing iron ore resources through its Agbaja project, which is intended to produce a high-quality iron ore concentrate. The company plans to generate revenue by extracting iron ore from its mineral deposits and selling the mined resources to local and international steel producers. A significant factor contributing to its earnings potential is the strategic location of the Agbaja project, which is in proximity to key infrastructure, including the Niger River and existing road networks, facilitating the transportation of mined products. Additionally, the company seeks to enter into partnerships and joint ventures with local and international entities to enhance project development and access to markets, thereby optimizing its revenue streams.

Kogi Iron Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial performance is very weak: revenue is effectively negligible (FY2025 ~A$39k) with persistent large losses (FY2025 net loss ~A$6.9m) and deeply negative margins. Cash burn worsened materially (FY2025 operating cash flow ~-A$6.1m; free cash flow ~-A$6.2m). The balance sheet has low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.03), but ongoing losses and negative ROE (~-1.09) indicate continued pressure and potential reliance on future funding.
Income Statement
8
Very Negative
Results remain extremely weak from a profitability standpoint. Annual revenue is effectively negligible (A$0 in FY2022–FY2024, ~A$39k in FY2025), while losses are persistent and large (net loss of ~A$6.9m in FY2025 after ~A$14.0m in FY2024). Margins are deeply negative, reflecting a company that is not yet operating at commercial scale; the FY2025 revenue uptick is positive but far too small to change the earnings profile.
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Leverage appears low (FY2025 debt-to-equity ~0.03, with ~A$224k of total debt), which reduces balance-sheet risk versus highly levered peers. However, profitability is severely negative, and returns on equity are meaningfully below zero (FY2025 return on equity about -1.09), indicating ongoing value erosion despite a still-positive equity base (~A$6.3m in FY2025). Total assets have also trended down from FY2024 to FY2025, consistent with a business in cash-burn mode.
Cash Flow
12
Very Negative
Cash generation is a major weakness. Operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently negative, with a sharp deterioration in FY2025 (operating cash flow about -A$6.1m and free cash flow about -A$6.2m) versus FY2024 (~-A$2.1m free cash flow). Free cash flow tracks the net loss (free cash flow to net income ~1.0 in recent years), suggesting losses are broadly cash-backed and increasing funding needs if the burn rate persists.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue14.05K39.30K0.000.000.0010.00K
Gross Profit0.0039.30K-13.66K-30.26K-30.77K10.00K
EBITDA-2.27M-6.82M-13.94M-2.42M-2.63M-2.74M
Net Income-6.89M-6.89M-13.95M-2.46M-3.15M-2.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.62M7.62M9.41M5.99M6.89M3.05M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.29M1.29M3.82M467.34K1.52M2.96M
Total Debt224.35K224.35K0.000.000.000.00
Total Liabilities1.32M1.32M760.21K596.70K1.11M2.17M
Stockholders Equity6.30M6.30M8.65M5.40M5.78M884.58K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-2.44M-6.20M-2.12M-1.90M-2.47M-1.49M
Operating Cash Flow-6.08M-6.08M-2.06M-1.82M-2.41M-1.42M
Investing Cash Flow-123.01K-123.01K-66.18K-84.61K-40.03K-70.68K
Financing Cash Flow3.67M3.67M5.48M850.17K1.02M3.88M

Kogi Iron Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.01
Price Trends
50DMA
0.01
Negative
100DMA
200DMA
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
48.92
Neutral
STOCH
33.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:M4M, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.01, below the 50-day MA of 0.01, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:M4M.

Kogi Iron Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
AU$22.47M4.433.77%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
AU$50.16M5.9619.09%
41
Neutral
AU$36.55M-5.56-92.18%66.67%
28
Underperform
AU$19.72M-4.64-32.09%-141.04%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:M4M
Kogi Iron Ltd.
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:IRD
Iron Road Ltd
0.03
-0.03
-49.06%
AU:GWR
GWR Group Limited
0.16
0.07
82.35%
AU:EQX
Equatorial Resources Limited
0.15
0.03
25.00%

Kogi Iron Ltd. Corporate Events

Macro Metals Director Simon Rushton Boosts Indirect Stake With Major Share and Rights Issue
Dec 18, 2025

Macro Metals Limited has disclosed a substantial change in the indirect interests of director Simon Rushton following shareholder approvals at the company’s 27 November 2025 annual general meeting. Through Venture Capital Holdings (WA) Pty Ltd, Rushton’s indirect holding has increased by 175 million fully paid ordinary shares to a total of 300 million shares, alongside existing unlisted options, and he has also been issued 240 million performance rights with an estimated value of $1.92 million, while his separate indirect holding via Turtle Bay (WA) Pty Ltd remains unchanged. The new securities were issued as consideration linked to the exercise of the Rusty Option and other AGM-approved arrangements, significantly increasing Rushton’s economic exposure to Macro Metals and further aligning his interests with those of shareholders.

Macro Metals Director Tolga Kumova Increases Indirect Shareholding via Fee Shares and Placement
Dec 18, 2025

Macro Metals Limited has disclosed changes to the indirect interests of director Tolga Kumova, reflecting an increase in his holdings through associated entities Kitara Investments Pty Ltd and Gondwana Investment Group Pty Ltd. Kumova received 6,992,754 new shares issued in lieu of $60,000 in director fees and a further 44,431,428 shares issued to Gondwana Investment Group under a previously announced placement, taking his total indirect stake to more than 406 million shares along with existing unlisted options. The transactions, all approved by shareholders at the November 2025 AGM, underscore both the director’s growing equity exposure and the company’s reliance on equity-based compensation and capital raisings to fund its activities, aligning director incentives more closely with shareholder outcomes.

Macro Metals Director Increases Indirect Shareholding Through Fee-for-Equity Issuance
Dec 18, 2025

Macro Metals Limited has reported a change in the relevant interests of director Robert Andrew Jewson, who holds securities both directly and indirectly through Geonomics Australia Pty Ltd and Morpheus Holdings Pty Ltd. Jewson’s indirect interest increased by 7,692,054 fully paid ordinary shares issued in lieu of A$70,000 in director fees, as approved by shareholders at the 27 November 2025 AGM, lifting Geonomics Australia Pty Ltd’s holding to 156,692,054 shares while his direct holdings and option positions remain unchanged; the move underscores the company’s continued use of equity-based remuneration to conserve cash and align director incentives with shareholder interests.

Macro Metals Director Increases Indirect Shareholding Through Incentive Issue
Dec 18, 2025

Macro Metals Limited has disclosed a change in the indirect interests of director Nathan Ross Douglas, held via Sunday76 Pty Ltd, in accordance with ASX requirements. The company issued 6,250,000 fully paid ordinary shares to Douglas’s associated entity as incentive securities valued at $70,000, following shareholder ratification at the annual general meeting on 27 November 2025, increasing his indirect holdings while leaving his substantial portfolio of options unchanged.

Macro Metals Issues New Shares and Flags Growing Mining Services Pipeline
Dec 18, 2025

Macro Metals Limited has issued 248,738,401 new ordinary shares, including placement shares, director fee shares, director incentive securities and consideration shares for the Rusty acquisition, all previously approved by shareholders at the company’s November 2025 annual general meeting. The company also outlined a growing business development pipeline, including an exclusivity agreement with an ASX-listed gold miner for proposed gold mining services and a profit-share arrangement, as well as pending framework agreements for its majority indigenous-owned joint venture to provide mining services to a tier-one iron ore producer in the Pilbara, while cautioning investors that these opportunities remain subject to final contracts and approvals and may not proceed as currently envisaged.

Macro Metals Secures 27.3% Stake in Pilbara Extension Iron Ore Project
Dec 18, 2025

Macro Metals Limited has completed the acquisition of a 27.3% equity interest in Project Rusty Pty Ltd, the owner of the Extension Iron Ore Project in the Pilbara, in exchange for 175 million new shares, giving the company a direct development-stage stake in the project in addition to its existing mining services contract. The project, which hosts a JORC-compliant Indicated Mineral Resource of 16.1Mt at 54.2% Fe and can produce an 11.29Mt product at 57.16% Fe after processing, is advancing through approvals and feasibility with port access secured at Utah Point for up to 4 Mtpa from late 2026, a 200,000-tonne bulk sample and haulage studies underway, and offtake talks including potential prepayment facilities, positioning Macro to expand shareholder value as the project targets first ore in Q4 2026 and first shipments in early 2027.

Macro Metals Seeks ASX Quotation for 6.25 Million New Shares
Dec 18, 2025

Macro Metals Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 6,250,000 new ordinary fully paid shares under its existing issuer code M4M. The securities, which were issued on 18 December 2025 and stem from previously announced transactions, will expand the company’s quoted capital base once approved, modestly increasing liquidity for existing shareholders and supporting the company’s ongoing corporate and funding activities.

Macro Metals Seeks ASX Quotation for Nearly 200 Million New Shares
Dec 18, 2025

Macro Metals Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 198,056,973 new fully paid ordinary shares under its issuer code M4M. The securities, issued on 18 December 2025 following a previously announced transaction, will expand the company’s quoted share base and may have implications for liquidity and ownership structure once trading in the new securities commences.

Macro Metals Issues 240 Million Unquoted Performance Rights
Dec 18, 2025

Macro Metals Limited has notified the market of the issue of 240 million unquoted performance rights, dated 18 December 2025, under a new unlisted class of securities. The move significantly increases the pool of performance-based equity instruments available to management or key stakeholders, and is likely aimed at aligning incentives with long-term project and share price outcomes, though it will also be watched by investors for its potential dilutive impact should the rights vest and convert in future.

Macro Metals Seeks ASX Quotation for 44.4 Million New Shares
Dec 18, 2025

Macro Metals Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 44,431,428 new fully paid ordinary shares under its issuer code M4M. The securities, issued on 18 December 2025 as part of previously announced transactions, mark a substantial increase in the company’s quoted capital base, which may affect liquidity for existing shareholders and support future corporate or funding initiatives once trading in the new shares commences.

Macro Metals Limited’s AGM Results and Strategic Resolutions
Nov 27, 2025

Macro Metals Limited held its Annual General Meeting, where all resolutions, except one withdrawn due to a director’s resignation, were passed. Notably, the approval of a 10% Placement Facility and the reinsertion of Proportional Takeover Bid Approval Provisions were passed as special resolutions, potentially impacting the company’s strategic flexibility and governance structure.

Kogi Iron Ltd. Outlines Strategic Focus at AGM
Nov 27, 2025

Kogi Iron Ltd. has outlined its strategic focus and operational achievements during its Annual General Meeting. The company highlighted its efforts in enhancing safety and culture, expanding its mining services, and strengthening its execution capabilities through strategic partnerships. These initiatives are aimed at scaling operations and improving market positioning in the iron ore and raw materials sectors.

Macro Metals Releases Q1/FY26 Quarterly Report
Oct 28, 2025

Macro Metals Limited has released its Q1/FY26 Quarterly Report and Appendix 5B cash flow report, highlighting its ongoing efforts in mineral exploration and mining services. The company’s focus on expanding its iron ore and manganese assets, along with its comprehensive mining services, positions it strategically within the industry, potentially enhancing shareholder value and operational growth.

Macro Metals Limited Announces Significant Securities Issue
Oct 28, 2025

Macro Metals Limited, under the ASX issuer code M4M, has announced a proposed issue of securities, including 240,000,000 performance rights and 198,056,973 ordinary fully paid shares. The proposed issue date is set for December 18, 2025. This strategic move is expected to potentially enhance the company’s capital structure and market presence, offering new opportunities for growth and investment.

Macro Metals Announces AGM and Leadership Changes
Oct 28, 2025

Macro Metals Limited has announced its upcoming Annual General Meeting scheduled for 27 November 2025, following the resignation of Mr. Tilley, which led to the withdrawal of a director election resolution. This development highlights the company’s ongoing adjustments in its leadership structure, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

Director Change at Macro Metals Limited
Oct 24, 2025

Kogi Iron Ltd. has announced that Shawn Tilley has ceased to be a director of Macro Metals Limited as of October 24, 2025. Tilley held 50,000,000 unlisted options and 402,567,436 fully paid ordinary shares through a trust. This change in directorship may impact the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

Macro Metals Announces Board Resignation Amidst Strategic Growth
Oct 24, 2025

Macro Metals Limited announced the resignation of Shawn Tilley from its board due to his commitments as Managing Director of Paramount Earthmoving. Despite his departure, Tilley expressed continued support for Macro Metals, indicating ongoing collaboration between the two entities. This change in leadership comes as Macro Metals continues its focus on expanding its mining operations and services, which may impact its strategic growth and stakeholder relations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 30, 2025