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Iron Road Ltd (AU:IRD)
ASX:IRD

Iron Road Ltd (IRD) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:IRD

Iron Road Ltd

(Sydney:IRD)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.03
▼(-27.50% Downside)
The score is led by improved FY2025 financial performance and a strong balance sheet with minimal leverage, supported by an inexpensive P/E. This is offset by weak technicals (negative MACD and price below key longer-term moving averages) and the risk that the recent earnings/cash-flow rebound may be lumpy given prior-year volatility.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet / negligible leverage
Near-zero debt and a large equity cushion materially lower refinancing and solvency risk for a capital-intensive miner. This structural strength provides optionality to fund CEIP development, withstand commodity cycles, and supports disciplined capital allocation over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Improved cash generation in FY2025
Restored positive operating and free cash flow demonstrates improved internal funding capacity and lowers near-term reliance on external capital. For a junior developer, sustained cash conversion supports project studies, permitting and modest capex without immediate dilutive financing, improving long-term execution odds.
Asset focus on Central Eyre Iron Project (CEIP)
A clear, single-asset focus on a sizable iron-ore development provides strategic clarity and concentrated value optionality. If CEIP progresses, it can leverage structural demand for iron ore and export infrastructure, creating durable upside tied to a defined development pathway rather than disparate exploration bets.
Negative Factors
Revenue and earnings volatility
Erratic top-line performance and a history of prior losses imply earnings are not yet durable. For a developer, volatile revenue makes multi-year planning, sustaining working capital and project financing harder, increasing execution and cash-flow risk across commodity cycles.
Free cash flow decline and prior negative years
While FCF turned positive, the recent decline and multi-year history of negative cash generation indicate cash volatility. This undermines confidence in self-funding for development capex and raises the likelihood of recurring external financing or dilution during downturns, a structural constraint.
Inconsistent returns on equity
A big equity base with low, inconsistent ROE signals capital is not yet generating reliable economic returns. Persistently modest returns may pressure investor support for long-term project funding and imply the company must materially improve project economics or execution to deliver sustainable shareholder value.

Iron Road Ltd (IRD) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Iron Road Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIron Road Ltd (IRD) is a company primarily operating in the infrastructure and resources sector. The company focuses on the development and management of iron ore projects, with a core emphasis on high-grade iron ore production. IRD is involved in various stages of the mining process, from exploration to extraction, and it aims to deliver quality iron ore products to global markets, supporting the steel manufacturing industry.
How the Company Makes MoneyIron Road Ltd generates revenue through the extraction and sale of iron ore. The company's primary revenue stream comes from the sale of iron ore to steel manufacturers and other industrial clients worldwide. Key factors contributing to its earnings include efficient mining operations, strategic partnerships with logistics and shipping companies for the transportation of iron ore, and long-term contracts with major steel producers, which provide stable and predictable income. Additionally, any fluctuations in iron ore prices can significantly impact their revenue, as the commodity market plays a crucial role in determining selling prices.

Iron Road Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
FY2025 shows a notable turnaround with strongly positive profitability and improved operating/free cash flow, supported by a very low-debt balance sheet. The key constraint is sustainability: revenue remains volatile (down YoY in FY2025), and prior years included losses and negative cash flow, indicating uneven underlying performance.
Income Statement
62
Positive
FY2025 shows a sharp rebound: revenue rose to ~7.7M and profitability turned strongly positive (net margin ~66% and EBIT margin ~67%). However, the revenue line is volatile and still declined ~9% year over year in FY2025 after very low/negative-profit years in FY2021–FY2024, which raises questions about durability and repeatability of earnings.
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with essentially no leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.00 in FY2025, and very low in prior years). Equity is large and stable (~137M in FY2025), providing a solid cushion. The main drawback is that returns on equity have been inconsistent, only modestly positive in FY2025 (~3.7%) after multiple loss years.
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
FY2025 cash generation improved materially with positive operating cash flow (~4.6M) and positive free cash flow (~4.1M), with free cash flow covering most of net income (~88%). That said, free cash flow fell ~23% year over year in FY2025 and the company had several years of negative operating and free cash flow before this turnaround, indicating elevated variability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.69M7.69M817.38K1.00M38.0050.27K
Gross Profit7.69M7.69M817.38K-45.40K-46.79K-46.83K
EBITDA5.19M5.19M-1.45M-347.00K-3.82M-5.41M
Net Income5.05M5.05M-1.49M-468.00K-4.03M-5.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets138.56M138.56M134.76M135.79M135.67M137.31M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.55M3.55M234.97K1.78M1.94M4.79M
Total Debt0.000.00503.22K0.000.00343.12K
Total Liabilities1.11M1.11M2.32M3.45M1.85M1.49M
Stockholders Equity137.45M137.45M132.44M132.34M133.82M135.83M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.05M4.05M-2.33M-1.23M-4.23M-3.26M
Operating Cash Flow4.58M4.58M-1.78M-890.37K-2.93M-2.50M
Investing Cash Flow-474.12K-474.12K-555.02K-343.62K-1.30M-752.87K
Financing Cash Flow-741.50K-741.50K785.90K1.08M1.38M7.66M

Iron Road Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.04
Price Trends
50DMA
0.03
Negative
100DMA
0.04
Negative
200DMA
0.03
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
46.49
Neutral
STOCH
83.33
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:IRD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.03, above the 50-day MA of 0.03, and above the 200-day MA of 0.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:IRD.

Iron Road Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
AU$22.47M4.433.77%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
AU$50.16M5.9619.09%
41
Neutral
AU$36.55M-5.56-92.18%66.67%
28
Underperform
AU$19.72M-4.64-32.09%-141.04%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:IRD
Iron Road Ltd
0.03
-0.03
-49.06%
AU:GWR
GWR Group Limited
0.16
0.07
82.35%
AU:M4M
Kogi Iron Ltd.
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:EQX
Equatorial Resources Limited
0.15
0.03
25.00%

Iron Road Ltd Corporate Events

Iron Road Tightens Spending, Courts Asian Steelmakers and Advances SA Exploration
Jan 27, 2026

Iron Road kept spending on its Central Eyre Iron Project at modest levels during the December quarter while concentrating on preparations to engage several Asian steelmakers in early 2026, a strategy pursued against a backdrop of subdued global investment in iron ore developments, high domestic power costs and softer Chinese steel demand. Despite weaker steel production and tepid consumption in China, benchmark iron ore prices remained relatively stable, underscored by cost-curve support from higher-cost producers, while Iron Road advanced its diversification effort through the Mulgathing Project with Red Tiger Resources, completing a Stage 1 air-core drilling program targeting heavy mineral sands at the Irria Prospect and planning a Stage 2 RC campaign to test a geophysics-based nickel-copper-gold target, potentially broadening its commodity and project pipeline exposure in South Australia.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:IRD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Iron Road Ltd stock, see the AU:IRD Stock Forecast page.

Iron Road Completes On-Market Share Buy-Back of 3.4 Million Shares
Jan 27, 2026

Iron Road Limited has completed an on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares, repurchasing a total of 3,431,809 securities for approximately A$167,537. The conclusion of this buy-back, initially notified in February 2025 and now marked as final in an updated ASX filing dated 28 January 2026, reflects the company’s capital management strategy and may have implications for its share structure and shareholder value, signalling management’s approach to balancing available capital with the number of shares on issue.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:IRD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Iron Road Ltd stock, see the AU:IRD Stock Forecast page.

Iron Road Director Glen Chipman Increases Shareholding via In‑Specie Distribution
Jan 23, 2026

Iron Road Ltd has reported a change in the holdings of director Glen Anthony Chipman, who increased his direct interest by 232,374 fully paid ordinary shares through an in-specie distribution, taking his total shareholding to 3,896,909 shares while retaining 4,000,000 unquoted vested performance rights. The transaction, which involved no cash consideration and did not occur during a closed trading period, reflects an adjustment in the director’s equity position but does not alter the company’s overall capital structure, with limited immediate implications for broader shareholders beyond standard governance transparency.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:IRD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Iron Road Ltd stock, see the AU:IRD Stock Forecast page.

Iron Road Advances Irria Prospect with Heavy Mineral Sands Drilling and Nickel-Copper-Gold Target Planning
Jan 19, 2026

Iron Road has completed a Stage 1 air-core drilling program at the Irria Prospect within its Mulgathing Project in South Australia, aimed primarily at assessing the potential for heavy mineral sands on exploration licence EL6580 under a farm-in and joint venture with Red Tiger Resources, which is managing the exploration work. The 27-hole, 690.5 metre program was dynamically scaled in the field based on visible heavy mineral sands, with results and follow-up plans to be reported in February 2026, while initial checks found no uranium mineralisation warranting assay; attention is now shifting to a geophysics-defined TAU-A target for possible nickel-copper-gold mineralisation, where a Stage 2 reverse circulation drilling campaign of deeper holes is being planned after earlier electromagnetic surveys indicated a strong conductive anomaly aligned with regional structures, potentially enhancing Iron Road’s exposure to base and precious metal opportunities at depth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:IRD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Iron Road Ltd stock, see the AU:IRD Stock Forecast page.

Iron Road Lets Cape Hardy Area C Option Lapse, Retains Strategic Buyback Rights
Jan 1, 2026

Iron Road has declined to grant a further extension to Revera Energy’s option to purchase a 24-hectare gulf-front land parcel known as Area C at Cape Hardy, meaning the $1 million purchase option has lapsed after the parties failed to agree alternative commercial terms. While Revera Energy retains options over the remaining 580 hectares earmarked for its proposed Cape Hardy Green Hydrogen Project, the expiry of the Area C option activates a buyback right for Iron Road, contingent on regulatory approval, and the failure to exercise any of the remaining options by mid-2027 would terminate related agreements for an advanced fuels hub, underscoring uncertainty over the partner’s long-term role in the project and preserving Iron Road’s strategic flexibility over the site.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:IRD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Iron Road Ltd stock, see the AU:IRD Stock Forecast page.

Iron Road Ltd Announces Change in Director’s Shareholding
Dec 3, 2025

Iron Road Ltd announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically concerning Dr. Peter Cassidy. The change involved an in-specie distribution of shares, resulting in an increase of 460,545 shares held by the Cassidy Family, with no shares disposed. This adjustment in shareholding reflects internal financial structuring and may influence the company’s governance dynamics, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions.

Iron Road Ltd Begins Drilling at Irria Prospect
Dec 2, 2025

Iron Road Ltd has commenced drilling at the Irria Prospect in South Australia following a successful reconnaissance mapping and surface sampling program. This exploratory drilling, consisting of up to 53 air-core holes, is expected to yield laboratory assay results in the first quarter of 2026, potentially impacting the company’s operational strategy and market positioning in the mineral exploration industry.

Iron Road Ltd Announces Mullaquana Station as Desalination Plant Site
Dec 1, 2025

Iron Road Ltd, a company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: IRD), has announced that Mullaquana Station has been selected as the site for a desalination plant as part of the Northern Water Project. This decision, reported by The Advertiser, marks a shift from the previously preferred site at Cape Hardy and follows a comprehensive analysis of regional industrial opportunities and various socio-economic factors. The final investment decision for the $5 billion project is expected by the end of 2026, and while the choice of Mullaquana was anticipated, it is seen as a disappointment for those who supported Cape Hardy.

Iron Road Ltd Announces Director’s Interest Change
Nov 26, 2025

Iron Road Ltd has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically concerning Glen Anthony Chipman. On November 26, 2025, Chipman was issued 4,000,000 performance rights, which were approved by shareholders, while his shareholding remained unchanged. This development indicates a potential strategic move to align director incentives with company performance, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and company operations.

Iron Road Limited Issues Performance Rights to Employees
Nov 26, 2025

Iron Road Limited has announced the issuance of 8,000,000 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move could potentially enhance employee motivation and align their interests with the company’s long-term goals, potentially impacting the company’s operational efficiency and market positioning.

Iron Road Ltd Announces AGM Results and Auditor Change
Nov 26, 2025

Iron Road Ltd announced the successful passage of all resolutions at its 2025 Annual General Meeting, including the appointment of Grant Thornton Audit Pty Ltd as the new auditor, replacing PriceWaterhouseCoopers. This change in auditors and the approval of performance rights for key executives are expected to impact the company’s governance and operational strategies positively, potentially enhancing stakeholder confidence.

Iron Road Ltd CEO Addresses 2025 AGM with Cautionary Presentation
Nov 25, 2025

Iron Road Ltd has released a presentation by its CEO, Larry Ingle, at the 2025 Annual General Meeting. The presentation, authorized by the company’s board, does not offer securities or investment advice and emphasizes that investors should conduct their own due diligence. The document highlights that any forward-looking statements are not forecasts and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could affect the company’s future performance.

Iron Road Ltd Confirms Promising Heavy Mineral Sands at Irria Prospect
Nov 20, 2025

Iron Road Ltd has completed a reconnaissance mapping and surface sampling program at the Irria Prospect, confirming the presence of valuable heavy minerals like titanium and zircon. The program’s positive results, including high percentages of valuable heavy minerals, support the prospect’s potential for further exploration and development. The company has also received approval for a low-impact drilling program and has established a joint venture framework with Red Tiger Resources Ltd, indicating strategic steps towards advancing their mining operations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 21, 2026