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Mount Gibson Iron Limited (AU:MGX)
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Mount Gibson Iron Limited (MGX) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:MGX

Mount Gibson Iron Limited

(OTC:MGX)

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Neutral 52 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.47
▼(-1.06% Downside)
The overall stock score is primarily influenced by financial performance challenges, including declining revenues and profitability. Technical analysis suggests a neutral trend with potential overbought conditions. Valuation concerns are highlighted by a negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield, indicating potential risks. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits further insights.
Positive Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
Low leverage and a robust equity base give the company durable financial flexibility to withstand commodity cycles, fund maintenance or growth capex, and negotiate from strength with lenders and counterparties. This stability supports long-term operational continuity and strategic optionality.
High-grade product mix and market focus
Supplying high-grade lump and fines to Asia aligns with structural demand for higher-quality feedstock in steelmaking. A product mix skewed to higher-grade ore supports stronger long-term demand resilience, pricing premia, and customer stickiness versus lower-grade competitors.
Operating cash generation relative to accounting profits
A healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates the business converts accounting profits into cash effectively, supporting capex, debt servicing and potential distributions. This cash-generation ability is a durable strength through commodity cycles if maintained.
Negative Factors
Severe revenue contraction
A near-50% revenue decline materially reduces scale economics and undermines fixed-cost absorption, making margins and profitability harder to sustain. Persistent revenue weakness impairs long-term investment capacity and increases exposure to restructuring or asset-sale needs.
Negative operating and net margins
Sustained negative EBIT and net margins indicate the core mining operations currently fail to cover operating and capital costs. Without structural cost reductions or stronger pricing, losses erode equity, limit reinvestment, and threaten the business's long-term competitiveness.
Declining free cash flow conversion
Falling free cash flow growth reduces the firm's ability to fund capex, service obligations, or return capital to shareholders. Coupled with reported negative returns on equity, weaker FCF conversion signals constrained financial flexibility and heightened vulnerability if market conditions remain soft.

Mount Gibson Iron Limited (MGX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Mount Gibson Iron Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMGX Resources Ltd. engages in the business of mining, exploration, and development of hematite iron ore deposits. It operates through the Koolan Island segment. The Koolan Island segment includes the mining, crushing and sale of iron ore direct from the Koolan Island iron ore operation. Mount Gibson Iron was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyMount Gibson Iron Limited generates revenue primarily through the sale of iron ore products. The company produces high-quality iron ore fines and lump ore, which are sold to various customers, including steel manufacturers and traders, both domestically and internationally. The revenue model is largely dependent on the global demand for iron ore, market prices, and operational efficiency. Key revenue streams include direct sales contracts with customers, long-term supply agreements, and spot market sales. Additionally, MGX benefits from partnerships with logistics providers for efficient transportation of its products to ports, enhancing its ability to deliver to international markets. Fluctuations in iron ore prices on global markets, as well as operational factors such as production costs and mining efficiency, play significant roles in the company's profitability.

Mount Gibson Iron Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 20, 2024
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Mount Gibson Iron had a strong financial performance for the full year with increased sales and a robust safety record. However, the June quarter was impacted by adverse pricing adjustments and volatile iron ore prices, leading to higher cash operating costs and reduced cash flow. The company is strategically investing in junior resources while preparing for temporary shipping reductions. Despite challenges, the company remains in a strong position for future cash flow generation.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Iron Ore Sales
Iron ore sales from Koolan Island increased by over 20% on the prior quarter to 0.9 million wet metric tonnes, with full year sales reaching 4.1 million tonnes.
Strong Financial Year Performance
Mount Gibson's financial performance was strong with group cash flow of $290 million before tax and working capital movements, and cash and investment reserves increased by $274 million over the financial year.
Safety Improvement
The 12-month lost time injury frequency rate remained at 0 incidents per 1 million man-hours worked, and the total recordable injury frequency rate reduced from 5.4 to 4.4 incidents per 1 million man-hours.
Strategic Investments
Increased investments in several junior resources companies with market value rising from $5 million in the March quarter to approximately $19 million at quarter end.
Negative Updates
Adverse Provisional Pricing Adjustments
June quarter cash flow was impacted by adverse provisional pricing adjustments totaling $29 million, reducing the quarter's net cash flow to $1 million.
Higher Cash Operating Costs
Cash operating costs were approximately 5% above guidance, averaging $97 per wet metric tonne in the quarter.
Volatile Iron Ore Prices
Benchmark 62% Fe price averaged 10% lower than the March quarter, impacting financial results with a USD 103 to USD 81 per tonne FOB realized price after adjustments.
Temporary Reduction in Shipping and Cargo Grades
September quarter shipping and cargo grades will be temporarily reduced due to repositioning activities and remediation support work.
Expected Accounting Impairment
An accounting impairment of Koolan's carrying values is expected as at 30 June '24 due to prevailing iron ore prices and outlook.
Company Guidance
In the earnings call for Mount Gibson Iron's Q4 2024, CEO Peter Kerr highlighted the company's strong production and financial performance for the fiscal year, despite some challenges in the June quarter. Iron ore sales from Koolan Island increased by over 20% from the previous quarter, reaching 0.9 million wet metric tonnes with a 65.2% Fe grade, contributing to a full-year total of 4.1 million tonnes. However, cash flow for the June quarter was impacted by adverse provisional pricing adjustments, reducing net cash flow to $1 million from an operating cash flow of $30 million before adjustments. Full-year sales revenue was $670 million FOB, with an operating cash flow of $290 million. Kerr also noted that the company's cash and investment reserves grew significantly, reaching $436 million by the end of the June quarter. Additionally, safety performance improved, with a lost time injury frequency rate of 0 incidents per 1 million man-hours and a total recordable injury frequency rate decreasing to 4.4 incidents. Looking ahead, the company aims to ship 2.7 to 3 million tonnes in fiscal 2025, with a strategic focus on maximizing cash flow from Koolan Island and exploring new investment opportunities.

Mount Gibson Iron Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mount Gibson Iron Limited faces challenges with declining revenues and profitability, impacting its income statement performance. The balance sheet remains strong with low leverage, but negative returns on equity are concerning. Cash flow generation is mixed, with strong operating cash flows but declining free cash flow growth. Overall, the company needs to address profitability and cash conversion issues to improve its financial health.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Mount Gibson Iron Limited has experienced significant revenue volatility, with a notable decline of 16.53% in the latest year. The company has struggled with profitability, evidenced by negative net profit margins and EBIT margins in the most recent period. Historical data shows fluctuating margins, with a strong performance in 2021 but deteriorating results thereafter. The gross profit margin has also significantly decreased, indicating challenges in maintaining cost efficiency.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity base with a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating financial stability. However, the return on equity has been negative in recent periods, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio remains robust, suggesting a solid capital structure despite recent profitability issues.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, with a significant drop in the latest year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating good cash generation relative to accounting profits. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, highlighting potential issues in converting profits into free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue330.52M330.52M667.82M452.69M186.11M300.46M
Gross Profit227.00K227.00K210.62M111.85M-30.52M84.69M
EBITDA-57.37M4.50M90.77M144.94M-171.88M135.57M
Net Income-82.19M-82.19M6.43M5.18M-174.12M64.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets582.67M582.67M664.30M724.94M760.14M984.11M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments461.82M461.82M463.03M162.41M125.57M351.58M
Total Debt5.29M5.29M11.85M23.05M11.88M18.10M
Total Liabilities129.49M129.49M118.13M185.71M227.04M264.40M
Stockholders Equity453.18M453.18M546.17M539.23M533.10M719.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow34.19M34.19M267.32M56.59M-196.08M-43.10M
Operating Cash Flow98.45M98.45M328.21M130.62M21.86M171.99M
Investing Cash Flow-70.20M-59.84M-335.03M-131.00M-10.12M-163.55M
Financing Cash Flow-25.60M-25.66M-12.01M-22.47M-30.94M-25.84M

Mount Gibson Iron Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price0.47
Price Trends
50DMA
0.40
Positive
100DMA
0.40
Positive
200DMA
0.36
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Positive
RSI
69.32
Neutral
STOCH
83.09
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MGX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.44, above the 50-day MA of 0.40, and above the 200-day MA of 0.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 69.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.09 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:MGX.

Mount Gibson Iron Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
AU$20.80M4.103.77%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
AU$43.69M5.1919.09%
52
Neutral
AU$543.00M-6.71-16.34%-48.05%-1394.34%
41
Neutral
AU$36.55M-5.56-92.18%66.67%
28
Underperform
AU$24.97M-5.88-32.09%-141.04%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:MGX
Mount Gibson Iron Limited
0.46
0.14
43.75%
AU:IRD
Iron Road Ltd
0.03
-0.03
-54.55%
AU:GWR
GWR Group Limited
0.14
0.05
66.67%
AU:M4M
Kogi Iron Ltd.
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:EQX
Equatorial Resources Limited
0.19
0.06
46.15%

Mount Gibson Iron Limited Corporate Events

MGX Resources Secures FIRB Approval for Central Tanami Gold Project Acquisition
Dec 3, 2025

MGX Resources Limited has received approval from Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board for its $50 million acquisition of a 50% interest in the Central Tanami Gold Project Joint Venture in the Northern Territory. This acquisition, from Northern Star Resources, positions MGX to establish itself as a significant player in the Australian gold industry. The finalization of the transaction is contingent upon securing an extension of infrastructure arrangements with the Central Land Council, with MGX optimistic about completing the deal ahead of the March 2026 deadline.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.39 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

MGX Resources Limited Announces Name Change Reflecting Strategic Diversification
Dec 3, 2025

MGX Resources Limited has officially changed its name from Mount Gibson Iron Limited, effective December 4, 2025, to reflect its strategic shift towards diversifying its mineral portfolio. This change aligns with MGX’s acquisition of a 50% interest in the Central Tanami Gold Project, marking a significant step in its transition from iron ore to precious and base metals, while maintaining investor recognition through its consistent ASX ticker code.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.39 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Finalizes Share Buy-Back Program
Nov 13, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited has announced the final notification of its share buy-back program, which was initially announced on September 10, 2025. The buy-back is scheduled to commence on October 1, 2025, and conclude on September 30, 2026. This move is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Completes Share Buy-Back Program
Nov 13, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited announced the completion of its share buy-back program, which was initially disclosed in August 2024. The program, which ran from September 2024 to September 2025, resulted in the buy-back of 38,803,598 ordinary fully paid shares for a total consideration of AUD 12,263,140.71. This move is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Limited Announces On-Market Share Buy-Back
Nov 12, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited has announced a new on-market buy-back of its ordinary fully paid securities, as indicated by their ASX security code MGX. This strategic move is likely aimed at optimizing the company’s capital structure and potentially enhancing shareholder value by reducing the number of shares outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Extends Share Buy-Back Program
Nov 12, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited has announced a further extension of its on-market share buy-back program, which allows for the repurchase of up to 10% of the company’s issued shares. This extension will run from 1 December 2025 to 30 November 2026. The company has not yet acquired additional shares during the current extension, and the decision to buy back shares will depend on various factors, including market conditions. The buy-back is discretionary, and there is no guarantee that the full 10% of shares will be repurchased.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Limited Announces AGM Results and Name Change Approval
Nov 12, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited held its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all proposed resolutions were carried. Key resolutions included the election of Brett Smith as a director and the approval of potential termination benefits for key executives under the company’s Loan Share Plan. Additionally, a special resolution to change the company’s name was overwhelmingly approved. These outcomes reflect strong shareholder support for the company’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Limited Highlights Expansion at AGM
Nov 12, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited presented at their Annual General Meeting, highlighting the company’s current projects and future plans. The presentation included an aerial view of the Central Tanami Gold Project, emphasizing the company’s ongoing efforts to expand its mining operations. The document also contained disclaimers about the speculative nature of investments in MGX shares and the uncertainties affecting the company’s performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Expands Gold Portfolio with Central Tanami Project
Nov 10, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited has announced an updated Mineral Resource Estimate for the Central Tanami Gold Project Joint Venture, where it has agreed to acquire a 50% interest from Northern Star Resources Limited for $50 million. The updated estimate shows an increase to 31 million tonnes grading 2.8 grams per tonne gold, totaling 2.8 million ounces of contained gold, which could significantly enhance Mount Gibson’s position in the gold mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Limited Director Increases Shareholding
Oct 29, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Paul Dougas acquiring an additional 30,002 ordinary shares indirectly through Norase Pty Ltd ATF Dougas Family Super. This transaction, conducted on-market at $0.34 per share, increases Mr. Dougas’s indirect holdings to 606,604 shares, reflecting a strategic move to strengthen his investment in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Director Acquires Shares, Signaling Confidence
Oct 27, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Director Brett Smith acquiring 170,000 ordinary shares at $0.35 per share through an on-market trade. This acquisition reflects a significant personal investment by the director, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future performance and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Resumes Trading Post-Koolan Island Rockfall
Oct 24, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited announced that the suspension of trading in its securities has been lifted following a recent announcement about a rockfall at its Koolan Island operation. This development is crucial as it allows the company to resume trading, potentially stabilizing its market position and reassuring stakeholders after the incident.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Ceases Koolan Island Mining Following Rockfall
Oct 24, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited has decided to cease mining operations at Koolan Island following a significant rockfall, citing safety concerns and the limited remaining mine life. The company will continue processing operations using existing ore stockpiles and accelerate rehabilitation activities, resulting in approximately 250 redundancies and a $30-40 million transition cost. Despite this setback, Mount Gibson’s acquisition of a 50% interest in the Central Tanami Gold Project remains unaffected, and some Koolan Island personnel and equipment will be redirected to support this new venture.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Requests Suspension Amid Koolan Island Rockfall Assessment
Oct 20, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited has requested a voluntary suspension of its securities from the ASX due to a rockfall incident at its Koolan Island operation. The company is currently assessing the situation with external geotechnical experts and continues to process stockpiled iron ore while preparing to provide a detailed update on the impact of the incident.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Halts Trading After Koolan Island Rockfall
Oct 17, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited has requested a trading halt on its securities following an overnight rockfall at its Koolan Island operation. The incident, which caused no injuries, has led to the suspension of mining activities in the affected area pending further evaluation, although the Koolan Island seawall remains unaffected.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Expands into Gold with New Acquisition
Oct 15, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited announced a significant acquisition agreement to acquire 50% of the Central Tanami Gold Project, marking a strategic diversification into gold mining. The company reported steady performance at its Koolan Island iron ore operation, with plans to reduce operating costs and increase production in the final year of the mine’s life. The company also plans to change its name to MGX Resources Limited to reflect its transition into a multi-commodity producer, and it extended its share buyback program.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mount Gibson Iron Limited stock, see the AU:MGX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 30, 2025