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Sims (AU:SGM)
ASX:SGM

Sims (SGM) AI Stock Analysis

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AU

Sims

(Sydney:SGM)

Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
AU$16.50
▲(7.28%Upside)
Sims' overall stock score reflects a mixed outlook. Strong technical momentum and positive earnings call highlights are offset by financial performance challenges and valuation concerns. The company's strategic focus on margins is promising, but profitability and cash flow issues remain significant risks.
Positive Factors
Debt Management
SGM announced the sale of the UK business for total after-tax cash proceeds of ~A$385mn, which should help push the balance sheet to a zero net debt position.
Financial Performance
Incorporating the trading update and the closing of the UK divestment, the FY25 EBIT estimate is increased by 22% to A$170m.
Negative Factors
Valuation Concerns
SGM trades on 28x FY25 earnings which is viewed as unsustainably high given historical earnings volatility.

Sims (SGM) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Sims Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSims Limited engages in buying, processing, and selling ferrous and non-ferrous recycled metals in Australia, Bangladesh, China, Turkey, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through six segments: North America Metals, Investment in SA Recycling, Australia/New Zealand Metals, UK Metals, Global Trading, and Sims Lifecycle Services. It is involved in the collection, processing, and trading of iron and steel secondary raw materials; and other metal alloys and residues, principally aluminum, lead, copper, zinc, and nickel bearing materials. The company also engages in the provision of environmentally responsible solutions for the disposal of post-consumer electronic products, such as information technology assets recycled for commercial customers; and environmentally responsible recycling of negative value materials, including electrical and electronic equipment. In addition, it provides secondary processing and other services comprising recycling of municipal curbside materials, stevedoring, and other sources of service. Sims Limited was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Mascot, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneySims Limited generates revenue primarily through the collection, processing, and sale of recycled metals and electronics. The company sources end-of-life products from various suppliers, processes them to recover valuable materials, and then sells these materials to manufacturers and other businesses. Key revenue streams include the sale of recycled ferrous and non-ferrous metals, electronics recycling services, and energy recovery solutions. Sims Limited may also engage in strategic partnerships with governments and industries to enhance its recycling capabilities and expand its market reach. The company's revenue is influenced by factors such as commodity prices, recycling volumes, and global demand for recycled materials.

Sims Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 10.15%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced picture with significant highlights in financial growth, operational improvements, and strategic positioning in key markets. However, these were tempered by ongoing market challenges, weather impacts, and strategic choices impacting volumes in NAM and ANZ.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
EBITDA and EBIT both up substantially. Trading margin increased by 22% despite flat sales volumes, indicating focus on margins is driving better financial outcomes.
SLS Segment Growth
SLS reported strong growth with repurposed units contributing to a nearly 21% increase in revenue and a 2.2 percentage point increase in EBIT margin.
Operational Improvements in NAM
NAM achieved a significant turnaround with a 3.5 percentage point increase in trading margin. Focus on buying unprocessed material increased shredder utilization and drove a 31% increase in zorba sales volumes.
Strategic Positioning in EAF Market
Well-positioned to supply existing and new EAFs in the U.S. with a strong network capable of supporting increased demand for scrap.
Cost Reduction Initiatives
Successfully delivered $64 million in annualized savings last year and targeting another $35 million in the current financial year.
Negative Updates
Challenging Market Conditions
Ferrous scrap prices were generally lower, and the global steel market remains challenging with fluctuations impacting performance.
Weather Impact on NAM
Extraordinarily cold and wet weather in the U.S. slowed down scrap collection and mill operations in January and February.
ANZ Market Challenges
ANZ faced headwinds with tight scrap supply and challenges in the export market due to ongoing global steel production by China.
NAM Volume Strategy
Deliberate reduction in dealer volumes to focus on margins resulted in lower overall sales volumes, reflecting a cautious approach in a competitive scrap market.
Company Guidance
During the call, the company provided detailed guidance, highlighting several key metrics of interest. They reported a substantial increase in both EBITDA and EBIT, showcasing a strong financial performance. The trading margin saw a notable rise of 22% despite flat sales volumes, underscoring the company's strategic focus on margins over volumes. The North American Metal (NAM) division was a focal point, with a 3.5 percentage point increase in trading margin percentage, driven by an 8.6 percentage point rise in unprocessed scrap, which also contributed to improved shredder capacity utilization. The company also highlighted a 31% increase in zorba sales volumes, reflecting a strategic shift towards buying more unprocessed material. In terms of capital management, the company outlined a revised framework targeting a gearing ratio of less than 15% and an operating leverage rate of 0.5x underlying EBITDA. Additionally, they introduced a new dividend policy aiming to return 25% to 35% of pre-growth free cash flow to shareholders, emphasizing a commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet while rewarding investors.

Sims Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sims faces profitability and cash flow challenges despite a strong balance sheet. Negative net income and declining free cash flow highlight risks in operational efficiency and financial health, although there are positive signs in gross margin improvements.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Sims has struggled with revenue growth, seeing a decline in revenue from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved from 10.44% in 2023 to 27.51% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin has turned negative due to a significant net loss in 2024, reflecting challenges in controlling operational expenses and financial costs.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio increased slightly from 0.30 in 2023 to 0.37 in 2024, indicating a moderate rise in leverage. The equity ratio remains stable, reflecting a strong balance sheet. Return on Equity (ROE) turned negative in 2024 due to net losses, which highlights profitability challenges despite a solid financial structure.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Operating cash flow decreased significantly from 2023 to 2024, impacting free cash flow, which turned negative. The free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, indicating cash generation issues despite some operational cash inflow. Overall cash flow management needs improvement to support future liquidity needs.
Breakdown
TTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
6.76B7.20B8.08B9.28B5.93B4.92B
Gross Profit
906.40M1.04B844.30M1.15B852.20M1.66B
EBIT
408.40M-117.80M-10.10M323.90M110.70M-248.70M
EBITDA
281.70M282.80M523.00M491.90M230.60M-41.50M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-114.20M-57.80M181.10M599.30M229.40M-265.30M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
242.90M280.80M329.80M267.50M254.10M243.10M
Total Assets
4.47B4.90B4.71B4.44B3.68B3.21B
Total Debt
593.40M949.30M804.80M701.70M557.10M480.40M
Net Debt
392.30M856.20M496.10M448.90M316.80M253.10M
Total Liabilities
1.73B2.34B2.05B1.90B1.56B1.22B
Stockholders Equity
2.74B2.56B2.66B2.54B2.12B1.98B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
243.50M-12.10M218.70M273.10M800.00K-205.80M
Operating Cash Flow
448.50M202.50M449.20M547.80M129.40M-65.30M
Investing Cash Flow
-83.60M-344.50M-245.20M-274.80M-126.90M-28.50M
Financing Cash Flow
-377.70M-75.50M-155.00M-259.70M10.40M-67.90M

Sims Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price15.38
Price Trends
50DMA
14.71
Positive
100DMA
14.39
Positive
200DMA
13.35
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.16
Positive
RSI
55.23
Neutral
STOCH
43.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:SGM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.34, above the 50-day MA of 14.71, and above the 200-day MA of 13.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:SGM.

Sims Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AUSGM
63
Neutral
$2.96B-1.24%1.45%-19.23%-176.61%
51
Neutral
$2.04B-1.21-21.10%3.95%2.90%-30.45%
TSCIA
C$2.12B14.5910.03%4.98%
$6.38B18.515.09%2.53%
$206.44M65.86-35.86%
AUBIS
74
Outperform
AU$159.52M9.8322.95%9.61%-2.79%13.47%
AUVSL
55
Neutral
AU$840.79M39.6013.66%0.63%-15.83%-61.60%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:SGM
Sims
15.38
5.05
48.81%
TSE:CIA
Champion Iron
3.89
-1.91
-32.93%
BLSFF
Bluescope Steel Limited
15.06
1.86
14.09%
MTGRF
Mount Gibson Iron Limited
0.21
-0.06
-22.22%
AU:BIS
Bisalloy Steel Group Ltd
3.27
-0.44
-11.86%
AU:VSL
Vulcan Steel Ltd.
6.28
-0.68
-9.77%

Sims Corporate Events

Sims Limited Announces Change in Substantial Holder’s Interest
Jun 6, 2025

Sims Limited has announced a change in the interests of a substantial holder, Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd, which acts as an investment manager for various funds. The voting power of Allan Gray Australia has decreased from 16.49% to 15.28%, indicating a reduction in their stake in Sims Limited. This change may affect the company’s shareholder dynamics and could have implications for its governance and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SGM) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sims stock, see the AU:SGM Stock Forecast page.

Sims Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Jun 1, 2025

Sims Limited has announced the quotation of 2,606 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its financial flexibility and strengthen its market position, potentially impacting its stakeholders by providing increased liquidity and investment opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SGM) stock is a Sell with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sims stock, see the AU:SGM Stock Forecast page.

Sims Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
May 22, 2025

Sims Limited has announced the quotation of 4,152 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) under the code SGM, effective from May 22, 2025. This move involves the issuance, transfer, or reclassification of securities due to options being exercised or convertible securities being converted, potentially impacting the company’s market presence and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SGM) stock is a Sell with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sims stock, see the AU:SGM Stock Forecast page.

Sims Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
May 14, 2025

Sims Limited has announced the quotation of 747 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of May 14, 2025. This move is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its financial flexibility and market presence, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and stakeholder interests positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SGM) stock is a Sell with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sims stock, see the AU:SGM Stock Forecast page.

Sims Limited Announces Board Changes as Thomas Gorman Retires
May 8, 2025

Sims Limited announced the retirement of non-executive Director Thomas Gorman from its board, following his appointment as Chair of the Alcoa Corporation Board of Directors. Gorman, who joined Sims in 2020, played a significant role in redefining the company’s strategic priorities and focusing on core businesses in high-potential markets. An independent search is underway for a new US-based non-executive director to fill the vacancy.

Sims Limited Rectifies Oversight in Director’s Interest Reporting
May 7, 2025

Sims Limited has reported a change in director’s interest, specifically involving the exercise and sale of options by Mr. Mikkelson, alongside the grant of performance shares and the lapse of certain options. The company acknowledged an administrative oversight in lodging the required documentation with the ASX but has since rectified the situation. Sims Limited assures stakeholders of its compliance with ASX Listing Rules through its Securities Trading Policy, which governs the notification of changes in interests.

Macquarie Bank Highlights Current Activities at Investor Conference
May 7, 2025

Macquarie Bank held an investor conference on May 7, 2025, presenting information about the Group’s current activities. The presentation emphasized that the material provided is a summary and should be considered alongside the Group’s periodic reporting and announcements. The document includes a disclaimer about forward-looking statements, highlighting the inherent risks and uncertainties that may impact actual results.

Sims Limited Ceases Development of Plasma-Assisted Gasification Technology
Apr 30, 2025

Sims Limited announced the closure of its Sims Resource Renewal subsidiary, ceasing the development of plasma-assisted gasification technology for processing Automotive Shredder Residue waste. Despite the successful commissioning of a demonstration plant, current market conditions do not support scaling the technology. Closure-related costs are expected to be $4 million, with a non-cash write-off of $21 million. Sims remains committed to reducing landfill waste and is exploring alternative solutions for treating ASR.

Sims Limited Announces Registry Office Relocation
Apr 15, 2025

Sims Limited has announced a change in the address of its Sydney registry office, MUFG Corporate Markets (AU) Limited, effective from 14 April 2025. The new location is at Liberty Place, Level 41, 161 Castlereagh St, Sydney. This move is part of the company’s ongoing operational adjustments, although contact details remain unchanged. This change is expected to streamline operations and potentially enhance stakeholder engagement.

Sims Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Mar 31, 2025

Sims Limited has announced the application for the quotation of 4,125 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) with the issuer code SGM. This move signifies the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its market presence and liquidity, potentially impacting its financial flexibility and attractiveness to investors.

Sims Limited Sees Change in Substantial Holder’s Voting Power
Mar 19, 2025

Sims Limited has announced a change in the interests of its substantial holder, Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd, which acts as an investment manager for various funds. As of March 17, 2025, Allan Gray’s voting power in Sims Limited has decreased from 17.64% to 16.49%, reflecting a reduction in the number of ordinary shares held. This change in voting power may impact the company’s shareholder dynamics and influence within the industry.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.