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Sims (SGM) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:SGM

Sims

(Sydney:SGM)

Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
AU$15.50
▲(8.39% Upside)
The stock's overall score is driven by challenges in financial performance and poor valuation metrics, which are partially offset by positive signals from the earnings call regarding strategic improvements and cost reductions. Technical analysis further adds to the cautious outlook with bearish momentum indicators.
Positive Factors
Debt Management
SGM announced the sale of the UK business for total after-tax cash proceeds of ~A$385mn, which should help push the balance sheet to a zero net debt position.
Financial Performance
Incorporating the trading update and the closing of the UK divestment, the FY25 EBIT estimate is increased by 22% to A$170m.
Negative Factors
Valuation Concerns
SGM trades on 28x FY25 earnings which is viewed as unsustainably high given historical earnings volatility.

Sims (SGM) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Sims Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSims Limited (SGM) is a global leader in metal and electronics recycling, operating across multiple sectors including metal recycling, electronics recycling, and municipal recycling services. The company specializes in the recovery, recycling, and trading of scrap metal, electronics, and municipal waste, with the aim of reducing landfill usage and promoting sustainable resource management.
How the Company Makes MoneySims Limited generates revenue primarily through the collection, processing, and sale of recycled metals and electronics. Key revenue streams include the sale of ferrous and non-ferrous metals recovered from scrap materials, which are processed and sold to manufacturers and other end users. The company also profits from electronics recycling services, where it processes electronic waste to recover valuable materials like copper, aluminum, and precious metals. Additionally, Sims offers municipal recycling services, collaborating with local governments to manage and recycle household waste. Strategic partnerships with manufacturers and municipalities, along with global trading operations, significantly contribute to the company's earnings.

Sims Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a significant financial turnaround and successful execution of strategic priorities, particularly in the nonferrous and SLS segments. However, the company faced challenges from global market volatility, particularly in ferrous trading, and had to manage increased working capital and weather-related disruptions. Overall, the company showed resilience and efficiency improvements despite market headwinds.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Turnaround in Financial Performance
FY '25 saw a near 50% increase in underlying EBITDA to $430 million and a near 200% increase in underlying EBIT to $174.9 million despite a drop in sales volumes.
Strong Performance in Nonferrous Metals
Nonferrous trading accounted for 34% of group revenue, 7 percentage points higher than last year, driven by strong demand for copper and aluminum.
SLS Division Growth
SLS division reported strong growth driven by the demand from AI and data center expansion, contributing to about 20% of the group's underlying EBIT.
Cost Management and Efficiency Improvements
Achieved cost savings of $35 million in labor through restructuring and rationalization efforts, keeping total costs relatively flat despite inflationary pressures.
Dividend Increase
The Board declared a final dividend of $0.13 per share, taking the full-year dividend to $0.23 per share, reflecting the cash returns from the U.K. sales activities.
Negative Updates
Impact of Global Market Volatility
The scrap metal market faced significant headwinds and uneven purchasing activity due to trade volatility and lack of policy clarity, impacting ferrous margins.
Challenges in ANZ Ferrous Markets
ANZ ferrous margins were under pressure due to overproduction in China affecting global steel prices, with weak domestic scrap prices reflecting export parity.
Working Capital Challenges
Working capital increased by $110 million, resulting in an elevated net debt position of $332 million and leverage metrics outside the preferred range.
Weather-Related Disruptions
Severe weather on the U.S. East Coast in January and February reduced intake levels, impacting the third-quarter performance.
Ceasing Development of Plasma Gasification Technology
A decision was made to cease the development of the plasma gasification technology, resulting in closure-related costs and noncash write-downs totaling $25 million.
Company Guidance
During the Sims Limited FY '25 Results Call, the company provided guidance highlighting significant financial improvements and strategic initiatives. In FY '25, Sims achieved a near 50% increase in underlying EBITDA to $430 million and a nearly 200% increase in underlying EBIT to $174.9 million, despite a drop in sales volumes, by prioritizing margin over volume. The Metal division saw increases in unprocessed scrap trading margin percentage and shredder utilization, while the SLS segment benefited from growth in repurposed units, boosting revenue and EBIT margin percentage. The company focused on simplifying operations, enhancing cash generation, and capitalizing on regional opportunities. They emphasized strategic priorities such as reducing days sales outstanding (DSO), managing inventory turns, and optimizing domestic versus export sales. Safety and employee engagement metrics remained strong, with historic lows in lag indicators and high employee engagement scores maintained through challenging market conditions. Looking ahead to FY '26, Sims anticipates continued strong nonferrous demand and benefits from U.S. tariffs protecting domestic scrap markets, while ANZ ferrous margins may remain under pressure due to China's influence on steel prices.

Sims Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sims faces challenges with profitability and cash flow despite maintaining a strong balance sheet. The negative net income and declining free cash flow highlight risks in operational efficiency and financial health. While there are positive signs in gross margin improvements, the company needs to address leverage and cash management issues to stabilize and drive future growth.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Sims has struggled with revenue growth, seeing a decline in revenue from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved from 10.44% in 2023 to 27.51% in 2024, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin has turned negative due to a significant net loss in 2024, reflecting challenges in controlling operational expenses and financial costs.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio increased slightly from 0.30 in 2023 to 0.37 in 2024, indicating a moderate rise in leverage. The equity ratio remains stable, reflecting a strong balance sheet. Return on Equity (ROE) turned negative in 2024 due to net losses, which highlights profitability challenges despite a solid financial structure.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Operating cash flow decreased significantly from 2023 to 2024, impacting free cash flow, which turned negative. The free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, indicating cash generation issues despite some operational cash inflow. Overall cash flow management needs improvement to support future liquidity needs.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.20B8.08B9.28B5.93B4.92B
Gross Profit1.04B844.30M1.15B852.20M1.66B
EBITDA282.80M523.00M491.90M230.60M-41.50M
Net Income-57.80M181.10M599.30M229.40M-265.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.90B4.71B4.44B3.68B3.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments280.80M329.80M267.50M254.10M243.10M
Total Debt949.30M804.80M701.70M557.10M480.40M
Total Liabilities2.34B2.05B1.90B1.56B1.22B
Stockholders Equity2.56B2.66B2.54B2.12B1.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-12.10M218.70M273.10M800.00K-205.80M
Operating Cash Flow202.50M449.20M547.80M129.40M-65.30M
Investing Cash Flow-344.50M-245.20M-274.80M-126.90M-28.50M
Financing Cash Flow-75.50M-155.00M-259.70M10.40M-67.90M

Sims Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price14.30
Price Trends
50DMA
15.46
Negative
100DMA
15.14
Negative
200DMA
14.27
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.36
Positive
RSI
39.75
Neutral
STOCH
29.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:SGM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.62, below the 50-day MA of 15.46, and above the 200-day MA of 14.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:SGM.

Sims Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.31B6.290.71%2.95%3.36%-36.41%
54
Neutral
$2.76B0.14%0.70%3.98%70.79%
C$2.13B24.485.89%4.86%
$6.48B131.530.73%3.13%
$284.42M65.86-16.34%
76
Outperform
AU$207.42M12.7825.09%7.35%-0.04%23.75%
63
Neutral
AU$861.22M60.019.13%2.19%-12.17%-61.32%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:SGM
Sims
14.30
3.48
32.19%
TSE:CIA
Champion Iron
4.01
-1.57
-28.14%
BLSFF
Bluescope Steel
16.27
2.61
19.11%
MTGRF
Mount Gibson Iron Limited
0.22
0.01
4.76%
AU:BIS
Bisalloy Steel Group Ltd
4.42
1.44
48.32%
AU:VSL
Vulcan Steel Ltd.
6.30
-0.89
-12.38%

Sims Corporate Events

Sims Limited Partners with Alter Steel for Green Steel Initiative
Jul 30, 2025

Sims Limited has entered into a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Alter Steel to supply up to 550,000 tonnes of ferrous scrap annually for Alter’s proposed Electric Arc Furnace in Queensland by 2028. This agreement marks a significant step in advancing the decarbonisation of steelmaking in Australia and New Zealand, aligning with the market’s shift towards onshoring steel production. The development of Sims’ Pinkenba site as a strategic logistics hub will enhance operational efficiency and market resilience, supporting the future feedstock needs of steelmakers in the region. The investment in Pinkenba, estimated at $215 million, will also enable the consolidation of Sims’ other sites, improving cost performance and climate change resilience.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SGM) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sims stock, see the AU:SGM Stock Forecast page.

Sims Limited Announces Change in Substantial Holder’s Interest
Jun 6, 2025

Sims Limited has announced a change in the interests of a substantial holder, Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd, which acts as an investment manager for various funds. The voting power of Allan Gray Australia has decreased from 16.49% to 15.28%, indicating a reduction in their stake in Sims Limited. This change may affect the company’s shareholder dynamics and could have implications for its governance and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SGM) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sims stock, see the AU:SGM Stock Forecast page.

Sims Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Jun 1, 2025

Sims Limited has announced the quotation of 2,606 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its financial flexibility and strengthen its market position, potentially impacting its stakeholders by providing increased liquidity and investment opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SGM) stock is a Sell with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sims stock, see the AU:SGM Stock Forecast page.

Sims Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
May 22, 2025

Sims Limited has announced the quotation of 4,152 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) under the code SGM, effective from May 22, 2025. This move involves the issuance, transfer, or reclassification of securities due to options being exercised or convertible securities being converted, potentially impacting the company’s market presence and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SGM) stock is a Sell with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sims stock, see the AU:SGM Stock Forecast page.

Sims Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
May 14, 2025

Sims Limited has announced the quotation of 747 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of May 14, 2025. This move is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its financial flexibility and market presence, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and stakeholder interests positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SGM) stock is a Sell with a A$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sims stock, see the AU:SGM Stock Forecast page.

Sims Limited Announces Board Changes as Thomas Gorman Retires
May 8, 2025

Sims Limited announced the retirement of non-executive Director Thomas Gorman from its board, following his appointment as Chair of the Alcoa Corporation Board of Directors. Gorman, who joined Sims in 2020, played a significant role in redefining the company’s strategic priorities and focusing on core businesses in high-potential markets. An independent search is underway for a new US-based non-executive director to fill the vacancy.

Sims Limited Rectifies Oversight in Director’s Interest Reporting
May 7, 2025

Sims Limited has reported a change in director’s interest, specifically involving the exercise and sale of options by Mr. Mikkelson, alongside the grant of performance shares and the lapse of certain options. The company acknowledged an administrative oversight in lodging the required documentation with the ASX but has since rectified the situation. Sims Limited assures stakeholders of its compliance with ASX Listing Rules through its Securities Trading Policy, which governs the notification of changes in interests.

Macquarie Bank Highlights Current Activities at Investor Conference
May 7, 2025

Macquarie Bank held an investor conference on May 7, 2025, presenting information about the Group’s current activities. The presentation emphasized that the material provided is a summary and should be considered alongside the Group’s periodic reporting and announcements. The document includes a disclaimer about forward-looking statements, highlighting the inherent risks and uncertainties that may impact actual results.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 02, 2025