AerSale Corporation (ASLE)
NASDAQ:ASLE
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AerSale Corporation
(NASDAQ:ASLE)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-7.93% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a strong balance sheet and a constructive earnings-call outlook pointing to improving profitability and 2026 growth initiatives, though valuation remains demanding given the high P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet strength and low leverage
AerSale's very low leverage and sizable equity base provide lasting financial flexibility to fund inventory, capex, and capacity builds without forcing distressed asset sales. This structural strength supports execution of multi-year initiatives and absorbs revenue cyclicality in aerospace aftermarket demand.
Negative Factors
Weak and negative operating cash flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow erodes liquidity over time and forces reliance on revolver capacity or asset sales to fund inventory and growth. This weak cash conversion makes execution riskier for capital-intensive expansions even with improving EBITDA and pressures long-term balance-sheet resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet strength and low leverage
AerSale's very low leverage and sizable equity base provide lasting financial flexibility to fund inventory, capex, and capacity builds without forcing distressed asset sales. This structural strength supports execution of multi-year initiatives and absorbs revenue cyclicality in aerospace aftermarket demand.
Read all positive factors
AerSale Corporation (ASLE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$317.46M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)315.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)39.1
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth-1.64%
EPS Growth1966.67%
CountryUS
Employees636
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding47,241,615
10 Day Avg. Volume212,121
30 Day Avg. Volume315,125
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)0.79
Price to Sales (P/S)1.00
P/FCF Ratio-11.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.48
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.65
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.00Price Target Upside13.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)$402.74M
AerSale Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AerSale Corporation provides aftermarket commercial aircraft, engines, and its parts to passenger and cargo airlines, leasing companies, original equipment manufacturers, and government and defense contractors, as well as maintenance, repair, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
AerSale generates revenue through several key streams, primarily by selling refurbished aircraft and aircraft components. The company acquires retired or surplus aircraft, disassembles them, and refurbishes the parts for resale. Additionally, AerS...
AerSale Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized substantial margin and profitability improvements (adjusted EBITDA up 38.2%, adjusted EPS up materially, gross margin expansion) and multiple capacity and capability wins (facility expansions, FAA landing gear approvals, strong AerSafe backlog). At the same time, the company faces notable near-term headwinds including total revenue volatility from flight equipment sales, a constrained/hypercompetitive feedstock market with low win rates, cash used for inventory purchases and relatively low cash on hand. Management outlines conservative feedstock purchasing, expects recurring revenue growth in 2026 from expanded MRO capacity, leasing and AerSafe demand, and highlights a strong inventory and revolver-backed liquidity to support execution. Overall, positives around profitability, margin recovery, and capacity buildup outweigh the operational and market challenges described.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Profitability Improvement
Full year adjusted EBITDA grew to $46.1 million, an increase of $12.8 million or 38.2% year-over-year. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA increased $2.2 million or 17.1% to $15.2 million versus $13.0 million in Q4 2024, reflecting stronger operating performance and efficiency initiatives.
Negative Updates
Total Revenue Decline and Flight Equipment Volatility
Total Q4 revenue was $90.9 million, down 4.0% year-over-year, and full year revenue fell 2.8% to $335.3 million, primarily due to fewer flight equipment sales (Q4 included $20.9M of flight equipment vs $31.0M prior-year quarter). Management acknowledges quarter-to-quarter volatility from flight equipment sales.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA and Profitability Improvement
Full year adjusted EBITDA grew to $46.1 million, an increase of $12.8 million or 38.2% year-over-year. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA increased $2.2 million or 17.1% to $15.2 million versus $13.0 million in Q4 2024, reflecting stronger operating performance and efficiency initiatives.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to 2026 as a growth year for both top and bottom lines, driven by a shift to more recurring, predictable revenue (filling on‑airport MRO capacity, growing USM sales, expanding the lease pool and AerSafe sales ahead of the FAA Nov‑2026 FQISAD deadline) and by contributions from three capacity expansions (90,000 sq. ft. aerostructures facility moved in Jan 2026, pneumatic expansion coming online by end‑Q1, and a fully operational Millington heavy‑check line) that management says will likely exceed the previously communicated ~ $50 million of incremental annualized opportunity; they also expect to deploy all Boeing 757 P2F conversions in 2026 (2 on lease, 5 in inventory, two under letters of intent). Guidance was framed off a 2025 base of $335.3M total revenue (‑2.8% YoY; +18.7% ex‑flight equipment), $90.9M Q4 revenue (included $20.9M of flight equipment), Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $15.2M (+17.1% YoY) and FY adjusted EBITDA of $46.1M (+38.2% YoY), with TechOps gross margin improved to 25.6% (vs. 16.6% prior) and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.33; liquidity entering 2026 was $71.6M (cash $4.4M, $67.2M revolver availability on a $180M facility expandable by $20M) and inventory roughly $364M (≈$150M ready for USM, ≈$118M whole assets). On capital deployment, management will remain disciplined on feedstock (2025 acquisitions $99.6M, Q4 $15.4M) citing a constrained market and low win rates (Q4 win rate 4.8%, 2025 year 6% vs. 8.6% in 2024), and expects steady, incremental improvements in revenue and profitability as new streams ramp and efficiency initiatives continue.AerSale Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 335.29M | 345.07M | 334.50M | 408.54M | 340.44M |
| Gross Profit | 105.77M | 103.94M | 92.42M | 151.39M | 119.39M |
| EBITDA | 35.12M | 26.16M | 48.00K | 66.89M | 69.66M |
| Net Income | 8.57M | 5.85M | -5.56M | 43.86M | 36.12M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 640.47M | 604.72M | 553.94M | 531.58M | 487.49M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.38M | 4.70M | 5.87M | 147.19M | 130.19M |
| Total Debt | 34.78M | 75.97M | 66.53M | 32.71M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 216.04M | 149.10M | 108.92M | 86.60M | 78.61M |
| Stockholders Equity | 424.43M | 455.62M | 445.01M | 444.98M | 408.88M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -29.05M | -17.85M | -185.51M | -15.71M | 75.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -22.97M | 11.18M | -174.15M | -113.00K | 79.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.86M | -16.13M | 3.09M | 41.37M | 13.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 26.51M | 3.77M | 29.74M | -24.26M | 8.59M |
AerSale Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
7.06
Price Trends
6.87
Positive
6.95
Positive
7.18
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
66.68
Neutral
95.03
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASLE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.35, above the 50-day MA of 6.87, and below the 200-day MA of 7.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASLE.
AerSale Corporation Risk Analysis
AerSale Corporation disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AerSale Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AerSale Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | $935.89M | 14.47 | 8.62% | ― | 4.27% | 28.47% | |
52 Neutral | $317.46M | 39.13 | 2.41% | ― | -1.64% | 1966.67% | |
49 Neutral | $222.67M | -6.36 | 6.23% | ― | ― | ― | |
45 Neutral | $858.74M | -7.87 | -27.39% | ― | 1.77% | -1964.48% | |
44 Neutral | $90.85M | -0.37 | 110.96% | ― | -8.51% | 82.15% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ASLE
AerSale Corporation
7.06
0.30
4.44%
SNCY
Sun Country Airlines Holdings
17.97
8.10
82.07%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
3.96
0.87
28.16%
FLYX
flyExclusive
2.22
-0.88
-28.39%
SRFM
Surf Air Mobility, Inc.
1.22
-1.23
-50.20%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.