Mesa Air Group (MESA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $55.26M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 108.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: -15.06%
• EPS Growth: -119.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,992
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 41,866,974
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 160,526
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 108,004
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.87
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲(7.91% Upside)

Mesa Air Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, which is the most significant factor. The company's high leverage, negative equity, and substantial losses weigh heavily on its financial health. Technical analysis provides some neutral signals, but the valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors do not influence the score.

Mesa Air Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mesa Air Group, Inc. is a regional airline holding company based in the United States, primarily operating through its subsidiaries, which include Mesa Airlines and others. The company provides scheduled passenger service as a regional airline for major airlines under capacity purchase agreements, offering essential connectivity within the United States and to select international destinations. Mesa operates a fleet of Embraer and Bombardier aircraft, focusing on efficiency and reliability in regional air travel.

How the Company Makes Money

Mesa Air Group generates revenue primarily through capacity purchase agreements with major airlines, such as American Airlines and United Airlines. Under these agreements, Mesa operates flights on behalf of these airlines, receiving compensation for operating costs and a profit margin. Key revenue streams include ticket sales, passenger service fees, and government subsidies for regional air service. Additionally, Mesa may benefit from partnerships with other carriers for code-sharing agreements, enhancing its route offerings and contributing to its overall earnings.

Mesa Air Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mesa Air Group is facing significant financial challenges across all verticals. The income statement shows declining revenue and substantial losses, while the balance sheet reveals high leverage and negative equity. Cash flow analysis indicates some improvement in free cash flow, but overall cash management is weak. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and improve financial stability to enhance its financial health.

Income Statement

Mesa Air Group's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a negative net profit margin of -39.94%, indicating substantial losses. Revenue has declined by 6.05% compared to the previous year, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins are both negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Despite a gross profit margin of 31.77%, the overall profitability is severely impacted by high operating expenses and declining revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet highlights financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity of -$52.64 million in the TTM period, leading to a concerning debt-to-equity ratio of -1.96. This indicates that liabilities significantly exceed equity, posing a risk to financial stability. The return on equity is positive at 3.80%, but this is due to the negative equity, which distorts the metric. Overall, the balance sheet reflects high leverage and financial distress.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some positive aspects, with a free cash flow growth rate of 41.98% in the TTM period. However, the operating cash flow is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.27, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.15, suggesting that free cash flow is slightly better than net income, but overall cash flow management remains a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	381.44M	476.41M	498.06M	531.00M	503.59M	545.07M
Gross Profit	41.02M	59.37M	15.11M	33.54M	1.62M	52.61M
EBITDA	-131.69M	-12.00M	-18.58M	-117.87M	139.99M	163.41M
Net Income	-166.46M	-91.02M	-120.12M	-182.68M	16.59M	27.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	158.93M	596.86M	898.47M	1.12B	1.46B	1.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	41.78M	15.62M	32.94M	57.68M	120.52M	99.39M
Total Debt	103.10M	319.87M	540.91M	634.85M	727.73M	838.19M
Total Liabilities	211.57M	486.62M	698.43M	807.43M	968.55M	1.04B
Stockholders Equity	-52.64M	110.24M	200.04M	308.17M	488.05M	457.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-53.26M	13.93M	-60.73M	-35.07M	109.40M	148.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-46.17M	34.24M	-24.09M	13.36M	132.87M	174.66M
Investing Cash Flow	211.29M	148.79M	142.28M	1.36M	-33.47M	-26.67M
Financing Cash Flow	-141.96M	-200.47M	-143.15M	-77.57M	-78.37M	-117.66M

Mesa Air Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1.39
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MESA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.49, below the 50-day MA of 1.42, and above the 200-day MA of 1.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MESA.

Mesa Air Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SNCY	68 Neutral	$635.21M	11.48	9.99%	―	4.27%	28.47%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ALGT	52 Neutral	$1.20B	―	-25.37%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
JBLU	45 Neutral	$1.52B	―	-19.09%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
ULCC	44 Neutral	$867.72M	―	-27.87%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%
MESA	44 Neutral	$55.26M	-0.31	-509.71%	―	-15.06%	-119.79%

Mesa Air Group Corporate Events

Mesa Air Group Announces Reverse Stock Split

Mesa Air Group, Inc. has announced a reverse stock split at a 15:1 ratio, reducing its authorized shares from 125 million to approximately 8.3 million. This move, effective November 24, 2025, aims to consolidate shares and will not alter stockholders’ percentage interest, with trading under a new Nasdaq symbol expected to commence on November 25, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (MESA) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mesa Air Group stock, see the MESA Stock Forecast page.

Mesa Air Group Stockholders Approve Merger Proposals

On November 17, 2025, Mesa Air Group held a special meeting where stockholders voted on proposals related to a merger agreement. The key proposals, including the merger itself, issuance of shares, executive compensation, and an equity incentive plan, were approved by the majority of votes. This approval marks a significant step in Mesa’s merger with Republic, potentially impacting its corporate structure and shareholder composition.

The most recent analyst rating on (MESA) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mesa Air Group stock, see the MESA Stock Forecast page.

Mesa Air Group Delays Quarterly Report Filing

Mesa Air Group has announced a delay in filing its Form 10-Q (Quarter Report) for the financial period ending September 30, 2025. The delay is attributed to the need for additional time to finalize financial statements, which could not be completed without unreasonable effort or expense. The company anticipates filing the report within five calendar days following the prescribed due date. Mesa Air Group does not expect any significant changes in its financial results compared to the previous fiscal year. The notification was signed by Michael J. Lotz, the Chief Financial Officer, indicating ongoing compliance efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (MESA) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mesa Air Group stock, see the MESA Stock Forecast page.

Mesa Air Group Amends Loan Agreement with Jefferies

On October 31, 2025, Mesa Air Group announced an amendment to its Loan and Guarantee Agreement with Jefferies Capital Services, extending the loan maturity date, reducing the interest rate to zero for 90 days, waiving certain restrictions, and reducing the principal amount by $12.3 million upon full payment. Additionally, Mesa provided updates on its pending merger with Republic Airways Holdings, scheduled to close on November 19, 2025, which aims to create a leading regional airline with expected annual revenue of $1.8 to $2.0 billion and strong financial performance. The merger will result in a combined company listed under the ticker symbol ‘RJET’ and will include a new capacity purchase agreement with United Airlines.

The most recent analyst rating on (MESA) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mesa Air Group stock, see the MESA Stock Forecast page.

Mesa Air Group Amends Loan Agreement for Merger

On October 28, 2025, Mesa Air Group, Inc. and Mesa Airlines, Inc. amended their Loan and Guarantee Agreement, originally dated October 30, 2020, with Jefferies Capital Services, LLC and The Bank of New York Mellon. The amendment includes extending the loan maturity date, reducing the interest rate to zero for 90 days, and waiving certain financial covenants, facilitating the merger with Republic Airways Holdings Inc. Additionally, Mesa Airlines secured a collateral agreement involving a $31.9 million deposit and pledged an aircraft engine.

The most recent analyst rating on (MESA) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mesa Air Group stock, see the MESA Stock Forecast page.

Mesa Air Group Faces Nasdaq Compliance Deadline

On October 1, 2025, Mesa Air Group received a notification from Nasdaq regarding non-compliance with the rule requiring an annual shareholders meeting within 12 months of the fiscal year end. This notice, which does not affect Mesa’s current Nasdaq listing, allows the company until November 17, 2025, to submit a compliance plan. The delay in holding the annual meeting is due to Mesa’s pending merger with Republic Airways Holdings Inc., expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, contingent on stockholder approval and other conditions. A special stockholder meeting is scheduled for November 17, 2025, to vote on the merger.

The most recent analyst rating on (MESA) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mesa Air Group stock, see the MESA Stock Forecast page.

Mesa Air Group Changes Fiscal Year-End Date

On September 24, 2025, Mesa Air Group, Inc. announced a change in its fiscal year-end from September 30 to December 31, effective for the fiscal year starting January 1, 2025. This adjustment will align the company’s financial reporting with the calendar year, potentially streamlining operations and enhancing clarity for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MESA) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mesa Air Group stock, see the MESA Stock Forecast page.