Mesa Air Group (MESA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $56.10M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 116.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.75
• Revenue Growth: -14.62%
• EPS Growth: -86.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,992
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 41,866,974
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 110,034
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 116,295
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.85
• 1Y Price Target: $1.00
• Price Target Upside: -25.37% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-25.37% Downside)

Mesa Air Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its significant financial challenges, including high leverage and negative equity. However, the company's strategic initiatives, such as fleet optimization and a potential merger, provide a positive outlook. Technical indicators suggest moderate bullish momentum, but the negative P/E ratio reflects ongoing financial difficulties.

Mesa Air Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mesa Air Group, Inc. operates as the holding company for Mesa Airlines, Inc. that provides regional air carrier services under capacity purchase agreements with the American Airlines and the United Airlines. It also engages in leasing aircrafts to third parties. As of September 30, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 167 aircraft, which include 153 owned aircrafts and 14 leased aircrafts with approximately 507 daily departures to 129 cities in the United States and Mexico. Mesa Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

How the Company Makes Money

Mesa Air Group generates revenue primarily through capacity purchase agreements with major airlines, such as American Airlines and United Airlines. Under these agreements, Mesa operates regional flights and receives compensation based on the number of flights operated, the number of passengers flown, and other operational metrics. This model provides a steady income stream as Mesa Airlines is responsible for providing the aircraft, pilots, and maintenance while the major airlines retain control over ticket sales and marketing. Additional revenue may come from charter services and ancillary services, such as baggage fees and onboard sales. The company's strategic partnerships with major carriers are crucial for its revenue stability and growth, as they ensure a consistent flow of business and passenger traffic.

Mesa Air Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mesa Air Group is facing significant financial challenges across all verticals. The income statement reflects declining revenues and profitability, while the balance sheet shows high leverage and negative equity, indicating financial instability. Cash flow analysis reveals some improvement in free cash flow, but overall cash generation remains weak. The company needs to address its operational inefficiencies and financial structure to improve its financial health.

Income Statement

Mesa Air Group's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM data shows a negative net profit margin of -29.95% and a declining revenue growth rate of -4.25%, indicating financial strain. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, suggesting operational inefficiencies. Historical data shows a consistent decline in revenue and profitability, with gross profit margins fluctuating but remaining low. Overall, the company faces substantial profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates high financial leverage, with a negative equity and a debt-to-equity ratio of -2.22 in the TTM period, highlighting significant financial risk. Return on equity is deeply negative, reflecting poor returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is also concerning, indicating a weak capital structure. The company's financial stability is under pressure due to high debt levels and negative equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some improvement in free cash flow growth, with a 92.15% increase in the TTM period. However, operating cash flow remains negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable at -0.04. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow. Despite some positive signs, the overall cash flow situation remains challenging.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	406.02M	476.41M	498.06M	531.00M	503.59M	545.07M
Gross Profit	50.04M	468.61M	15.11M	33.54M	-1.92M	48.58M
EBITDA	-134.90M	-12.00M	-18.58M	-117.87M	139.99M	163.41M
Net Income	-177.25M	-91.02M	-120.12M	-182.68M	16.59M	27.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	178.65M	596.86M	898.47M	1.12B	1.46B	1.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	42.47M	15.62M	32.94M	57.68M	120.52M	99.39M
Total Debt	121.53M	318.81M	541.01M	633.70M	718.05M	838.19M
Total Liabilities	219.93M	486.62M	698.43M	807.43M	968.55M	1.04B
Stockholders Equity	-41.28M	110.24M	200.04M	308.17M	488.05M	457.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-37.51M	13.93M	-60.73M	-35.07M	109.40M	148.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-28.70M	34.24M	-24.09M	13.36M	132.87M	174.66M
Investing Cash Flow	229.53M	148.79M	142.28M	1.36M	-33.47M	-26.67M
Financing Cash Flow	-174.60M	-200.47M	-143.15M	-77.57M	-78.37M	-117.66M

Mesa Air Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.34
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MESA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.31, above the 50-day MA of 1.19, and above the 200-day MA of 1.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MESA.

Mesa Air Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SNCY	73 Outperform	672.85M	11.86	9606.85%	―	3.76%	17.44%
ALGT	55 Neutral	1.12B	-3.83	-27.09%	―	3.17%	-1689.03%
ULCC	54 Neutral	1.18B	-35.02	-6.52%	―	4.60%	49.81%
MESA	52 Neutral	$56.10M	―	-378.73%	―	-14.62%	-86.07%
JBLU	47 Neutral	1.83B	-4.61	-16.03%	―	-1.90%	61.06%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Mesa Air Group Corporate Events

Mesa Air Group Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Mesa Air Group announced its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, highlighting a strategic transition to a single-fleet operator of Embraer 175 aircraft, which has improved operational efficiency. The company reported a net income of $20.9 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss in the previous year, despite a decrease in total operating revenues due to reduced contractual aircraft with United Airlines. The planned merger with Republic Airways is expected to create a regional airline powerhouse with enhanced scale, a strong balance sheet, and a stable revenue model, positioning the combined entity as a formidable competitor in the regional airline market.

Mesa Air Group Reports Q3 2025 Financial Restructuring

Mesa Air Group reported its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, showing a significant operational and financial restructuring with a net income of $20.9 million. The company has transitioned to a single fleet type of Embraer 175s, improving operational efficiency and increasing daily block hour utilization. Additionally, Mesa has been reducing its debt through asset sales and is optimistic about its proposed merger with Republic Airways Holdings, which is expected to enhance financial performance and operational capabilities.

Mesa Air Group Files for Merger with Republic Airways

On July 23, 2025, Mesa Air Group, Inc. announced the filing of a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in connection with its proposed merger with Republic Airways Holdings Inc. This filing, which includes a proxy statement and preliminary prospectus, is a step towards finalizing the merger, pending SEC approval and stockholder votes. The merger aims to strengthen Mesa’s market position, although the registration statement has not yet become effective, and the securities related to the merger cannot be sold until it does. This strategic move is significant for Mesa’s operational expansion and could have implications for stakeholders, including the need for stockholder approval and satisfaction of closing conditions.