Mesa Air Group (MESA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $58.20M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 108.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: -14.62%
• EPS Growth: -86.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,992
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 41,866,974
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 160,526
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 108,004
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.85
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲(7.91% Upside)

Mesa Air Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by declining revenues, high leverage, and negative equity. While technical analysis shows some positive momentum, the stock's valuation remains unattractive due to its negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits additional insights.

Mesa Air Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mesa Air Group, Inc. is a regional airline holding company based in Phoenix, Arizona, operating under the brands of Mesa Airlines and GO! Mokulele. The company primarily provides essential air transportation services for major airlines through capacity purchase agreements, which allow it to operate regional flights on behalf of larger carriers. Mesa's fleet consists of turboprop and jet aircraft, offering both scheduled passenger services and charter flights, serving various routes in the United States and the Caribbean.

How the Company Makes Money

Mesa Air Group generates revenue primarily through capacity purchase agreements with major airlines, such as American Airlines and United Airlines. Under these agreements, Mesa operates regional flights and receives compensation based on the number of flights operated, the number of passengers flown, and other operational metrics. This model provides a steady income stream as Mesa Airlines is responsible for providing the aircraft, pilots, and maintenance while the major airlines retain control over ticket sales and marketing. Additional revenue may come from charter services and ancillary services, such as baggage fees and onboard sales. The company's strategic partnerships with major carriers are crucial for its revenue stability and growth, as they ensure a consistent flow of business and passenger traffic.

Mesa Air Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mesa Air Group is facing significant financial challenges across all verticals. The income statement reflects declining revenues and profitability, while the balance sheet shows high leverage and negative equity, indicating financial instability. Cash flow analysis reveals some improvement in free cash flow, but overall cash generation remains weak. The company needs to address its operational inefficiencies and financial structure to improve its financial health.

Income Statement

Mesa Air Group's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM data shows a negative net profit margin of -29.95% and a declining revenue growth rate of -4.25%, indicating financial strain. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, suggesting operational inefficiencies. Historical data shows a consistent decline in revenue and profitability, with gross profit margins fluctuating but remaining low. Overall, the company faces substantial profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates high financial leverage, with a negative equity and a debt-to-equity ratio of -2.22 in the TTM period, highlighting significant financial risk. Return on equity is deeply negative, reflecting poor returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is also concerning, indicating a weak capital structure. The company's financial stability is under pressure due to high debt levels and negative equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some improvement in free cash flow growth, with a 92.15% increase in the TTM period. However, operating cash flow remains negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable at -0.04. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow. Despite some positive signs, the overall cash flow situation remains challenging.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	406.02M	476.41M	498.06M	531.00M	503.59M	545.07M
Gross Profit	50.04M	59.37M	15.11M	33.54M	1.62M	52.61M
EBITDA	-134.90M	-12.00M	-18.58M	-117.87M	139.99M	163.41M
Net Income	-177.25M	-91.02M	-120.12M	-182.68M	16.59M	27.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	178.65M	596.86M	898.47M	1.12B	1.46B	1.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	42.47M	15.62M	32.94M	57.68M	120.52M	99.39M
Total Debt	121.53M	319.87M	540.91M	634.85M	727.73M	838.19M
Total Liabilities	219.93M	486.62M	698.43M	807.43M	968.55M	1.04B
Stockholders Equity	-41.28M	110.24M	200.04M	308.17M	488.05M	457.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-37.51M	13.93M	-60.73M	-35.07M	109.40M	148.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-28.70M	34.24M	-24.09M	13.36M	132.87M	174.66M
Investing Cash Flow	229.53M	148.79M	142.28M	1.36M	-33.47M	-26.67M
Financing Cash Flow	-174.60M	-200.47M	-143.15M	-77.57M	-78.37M	-117.66M

Mesa Air Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1.39
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MESA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.41, above the 50-day MA of 1.35, and above the 200-day MA of 1.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MESA.

Mesa Air Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SNCY	―	$647.34M	11.68	9.99%	―	4.27%	28.47%
Sector *	―	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ALGT	―	$1.14B	―	-24.02%	―	3.17%	-1689.03%
MESA	―	$58.20M	-0.32	-378.73%	―	-14.62%	-86.07%
JBLU	―	$1.53B	―	-19.09%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
ULCC	―	$880.68M	―	-6.63%	―	4.60%	49.81%

Mesa Air Group Corporate Events

Mesa Air Group Faces Nasdaq Compliance Deadline

On October 1, 2025, Mesa Air Group received a notification from Nasdaq regarding non-compliance with the rule requiring an annual shareholders meeting within 12 months of the fiscal year end. This notice, which does not affect Mesa’s current Nasdaq listing, allows the company until November 17, 2025, to submit a compliance plan. The delay in holding the annual meeting is due to Mesa’s pending merger with Republic Airways Holdings Inc., expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, contingent on stockholder approval and other conditions. A special stockholder meeting is scheduled for November 17, 2025, to vote on the merger.

The most recent analyst rating on (MESA) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mesa Air Group stock, see the MESA Stock Forecast page.

Mesa Air Group Changes Fiscal Year-End Date

On September 24, 2025, Mesa Air Group, Inc. announced a change in its fiscal year-end from September 30 to December 31, effective for the fiscal year starting January 1, 2025. This adjustment will align the company’s financial reporting with the calendar year, potentially streamlining operations and enhancing clarity for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MESA) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mesa Air Group stock, see the MESA Stock Forecast page.

Mesa Air Group Reports Q3 2025 Earnings and Merger Update

Mesa Air Group, Inc., headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, is a regional air carrier operating as United Express, providing scheduled passenger service to 79 cities across the United States, Cuba, and Mexico with a fleet of Embraer 175 regional aircraft. The company is known for its capacity purchase agreement with United Airlines, which allows it to operate flights under the United Express brand.

Mesa Air Group Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Mesa Air Group announced its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, highlighting a strategic transition to a single-fleet operator of Embraer 175 aircraft, which has improved operational efficiency. The company reported a net income of $20.9 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss in the previous year, despite a decrease in total operating revenues due to reduced contractual aircraft with United Airlines. The planned merger with Republic Airways is expected to create a regional airline powerhouse with enhanced scale, a strong balance sheet, and a stable revenue model, positioning the combined entity as a formidable competitor in the regional airline market.

Mesa Air Group Reports Q3 2025 Financial Restructuring

Mesa Air Group reported its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, showing a significant operational and financial restructuring with a net income of $20.9 million. The company has transitioned to a single fleet type of Embraer 175s, improving operational efficiency and increasing daily block hour utilization. Additionally, Mesa has been reducing its debt through asset sales and is optimistic about its proposed merger with Republic Airways Holdings, which is expected to enhance financial performance and operational capabilities.

Mesa Air Group Files for Merger with Republic Airways

On July 23, 2025, Mesa Air Group, Inc. announced the filing of a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in connection with its proposed merger with Republic Airways Holdings Inc. This filing, which includes a proxy statement and preliminary prospectus, is a step towards finalizing the merger, pending SEC approval and stockholder votes. The merger aims to strengthen Mesa’s market position, although the registration statement has not yet become effective, and the securities related to the merger cannot be sold until it does. This strategic move is significant for Mesa’s operational expansion and could have implications for stakeholders, including the need for stockholder approval and satisfaction of closing conditions.