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Aeroports de Paris (ARRPY)
OTHER OTC:ARRPY
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Aeroports de Paris
(OTC:ARRPY)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
▼(-8.96% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/20/26
The score is primarily driven by solid operating performance and supportive technical momentum, offset by balance-sheet leverage and weaker recent free cash flow. Valuation is relatively expensive on earnings, and earnings-call items point to meaningful 2026 headwinds (tariff freeze, wage step-up, and operational constraints) despite positive EBITDA guidance.
Positive Factors
Revenue recovery & growth
Sustained revenue growth through 2025 reflects a durable post-downturn recovery in passenger volumes and commercial activity. Consistent top-line expansion supports long-term capacity to fund operations, concessions, and reinvestment, reducing reliance on one-off items and smoothing multi-year cash flows.
Operating profitability and margin resilience
Robust operating and EBITDA margins indicate strong underlying earnings power from aeronautical and commercial revenues. For an asset-heavy airport operator, durable operating-margin performance supports ongoing cash generation and ability to cover fixed costs, cushioning profit through traffic cycles.
International diversification and cash returns
Execution on international projects and resumed dividends from TAV diversify revenue and cash sources beyond Paris. Geographic mix reduces single‑market exposure, provides alternative EBITDA drivers and dividend inflows, and improves resilience to local operational or regulatory disruptions.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
High leverage in an inherently capital-intensive business constrains financial flexibility. Elevated debt ratios increase interest‑rate and refinancing sensitivity, limit capacity for additional discretionary investment or shocks, and make dividends and capex more dependent on cash generation stability.
Free cash flow volatility and weakness
A sharp FCF decline and increased volatility reduce headroom to service debt, sustain dividends, and fund high recurring capex. For a long‑lived asset operator, unreliable free cash flow raises refinancing and timing risk for projects and weakens the company's buffer against cyclical traffic or cost shocks.
Regulatory uncertainty and tariff freeze
A failed tariff reset and disputes over allocation keys create structural revenue and margin risk. Flat regulated tariffs and potential analytical reallocation of costs to the unregulated perimeter could depress regulated returns and shift economics, prolonging revenue pressure until regulatory resolution in late 2026.
Aeroports de Paris (ARRPY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.76B
Dividend Yield2.66%
Average Volume (3M)0.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.7
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth10.84%
EPS Growth-87.89%
CountryUS
Employees29,330
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.34
Shares Outstanding989,610,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume0
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.92
Price to Book (P/B)2.67
Price to Sales (P/S)1.80
P/FCF Ratio47.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.61
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.08
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.28
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Aeroports de Paris Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAeroports de Paris SA owns and operates airports worldwide. The company operates through Aviation, Retail and Services, Real Estate, International and Airport Developments, and Other Activities segments. The Aviation segment offers security and airport safety services, such as security checkpoints, screening systems, aircraft rescue, and fire-fighting services. The Retail and Services segment provides retail activities comprising of bars, restaurants, banks, car rentals, and retails shops, as well as engages in leasing of space for terminals, advertising, restaurant, and car park services. This segment is also involved in production and supply of heat, drinking water, and access to the chilled distribution networks. The Real Estate segment engages in construction, commercialization, and lease management of office, logistic buildings, and freight terminals; and provides property leasing services for airport terminals, as well as rents serviced land. The International and Airport Developments segment designs and operates airport activities. The Other Activities segment offers telecom and cybersecurity services. It operates and manages approximately 28 airports worldwide. Aeroports de Paris SA was incorporated in 1945 and is based in Tremblay-en-France, France.
How the Company Makes MoneyADP generates revenue primarily by operating airports and monetizing passenger and airline traffic through a mix of regulated and commercial activities. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Aviation charges: fees paid by airlines and aircraft operators for the use of airport infrastructure and services (e.g., landing and takeoff-related charges, aircraft parking, and passenger-related charges). These revenues are generally tied to traffic volumes and, in many airport frameworks, are subject to regulation or agreements that influence pricing and allowable returns; specific regulatory terms for ARRPY are not provided here (null). (2) Retail, duty-free, and food & beverage concessions: income from shops, duty-free, restaurants, and other concessions located in terminals, commonly structured as concession fees, revenue-sharing arrangements, and/or minimum guarantees with operators; ADP benefits from passenger footfall and dwell time. (3) Real estate and property income: revenue from developing, leasing, and managing airport-area real estate (e.g., offices, logistics, hotels, and other commercial properties), which can provide recurring rental income and development gains. (4) Parking and ground access: income from passenger parking facilities and other access-related services. (5) Advertising and services: revenue from advertising placements in airport environments and from service contracts provided to airport users and tenants. (6) International and other holdings: earnings and dividends from investments or operations in airports outside France and related subsidiaries; the specific airports/partners and contribution levels are not provided here (null). Overall, ADP’s earnings are influenced by passenger and flight volumes, commercial spend per passenger, the mix of domestic/international traffic, lease and concession contract terms, and the pace of real estate development and occupancy.
Aeroports de Paris Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a solid operational and financial year: revenue and EBITDA grew strongly, net income improved, deleveraging progressed, key infrastructure and international projects were delivered, and employee alignment measures were successfully implemented. However, material near-term headwinds remain — notably regulatory friction (rejected tariff proposals and cost allocation disputes), FX and exceptional tax impacts, retail slowdown vs 2024, and a one-off wage step-up that increases 2026 OpEx. Management highlights support from airlines and the State and positions the multiyear Economic Regulation Agreement process as the appropriate path to resolve structural issues.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Group revenue reached EUR 6.7 billion in 2025, up nearly 9% year-over-year, driven by strong traffic and development of service businesses including scope effects from P/S and Paris Experience Group acquisitions.
EBITDA Expansion
EBITDA grew by more than 12% in 2025 (11.3% excluding the integration of P/S and PEG), outperforming the guidance of at least 7%, supported by revenue growth and disciplined cost control.
Net Income Improvement
Net income attributable to the group was EUR 382 million in 2025, up approximately EUR 40 million (roughly +12% year-over-year), despite noncash FX and exceptional tax impacts.
Traffic Recovery and Geographic Resilience
Paris traffic rose 3.4% in 2025 (driven by international passengers). TAV Airports traffic increased ~6%, GMR +3%, and Amman (AIG) delivered strong resilience with +11% traffic.
Deleveraging and Balance Sheet
Net debt stood at EUR 8.6 billion with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improving to 3.7x, within the 2025 target range of 3.5x–4x, reflecting strong EBITDA growth and disciplined CapEx execution.
Employee Alignment and Compensation Reform
Employee shareholding plan was highly successful (3 out of 4 employees subscribed), employee ownership now represents ~2% of capital; a negotiated compensation framework modernisation was reached with unions to improve long-term cost sustainability.
Major Infrastructure and Sustainability Deliverables
Delivered key Paris projects in 2025 including Runway 1 refurbishment, commissioning of a geothermal plant at CDG (decarbonisation milestone), Orly airside restructuring and baggage system upgrades at Terminals 2E/2C.
International Project Execution and Cash Returns
Completed major international expansions (Antalya and Delhi), secured refinancing at Antalya and GMR, obtained 5-year concession extension at Tbilisi; TAV to resume dividends (TRY 3.61 per share, ~EUR 10m to ADP in 2026).
Dividend Policy and 2026 Guidance
Board proposed a dividend of EUR 3.00 per share and affirmed a 60% payout policy with EUR 3 floor; 2026 EBITDA guidance set above EUR 2.35 billion with group CapEx guidance ~EUR 1.45 billion (c. EUR 1 billion at ADP SA).
Retail Model Strength (Extime / Beauty)
Extime standard pack at EUR 31.7 in 2025; despite mid-year headwinds, beauty category outperformed national market with +6% vs national -2.6%, supporting higher-margin retail performance.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Dispute and 2026 Tariff Freeze
Both initial (1.5%) and subsequent flat-tariff proposals for 2026 were rejected by the regulator; as a result, airport charges remain at 2025 levels from April 1, 2026, creating short-term revenue headwinds and regulatory uncertainty.
Analytical Allocation Key Disagreement
Regulator highlighted differences on analytical accounting/allocation keys (space/access), indicating potential adjustments that could increase regulated ROCE by c. 0.5–1.0 percentage points and reallocate material costs to the unregulated perimeter (ART cited potential three-digit million euro impacts in commentary).
Foreign Exchange and Tax Impacts on Net Income
Abnormal FX variations produced a net negative P&L impact (noted as ~EUR 130 million affecting contributions from TAV and GMR); additionally an exceptional corporate tax surplus of EUR 92 million reduced 2025 net income despite positive operating performance.
Retail Momentum Deterioration During 2025
Extime spend per passenger (standard pack) was EUR 31.7 (+3.6% vs 2023) but declined -1.2% vs 2024; a Q2 downturn was driven by terminal works, reopening/reallocations, end of Olympic merchandise, a slowdown in luxury and adverse FX (stronger euro) pressuring spend.
Higher 2026 Staff Costs from Compensation Reform
2026 will see a one-off larger wage step (roughly twice the normal annual run rate) to implement the new compensation structure, creating near-term OpEx pressure (already embedded in 2026 guidance).
Operational Constraints at Orly in 2026
Planned airside works at Orly (April–December 2026) will constrain operations in two phases and may lead some airlines to temporarily reduce or shift flights; although slots are preserved, this creates tactical traffic disruption and is embedded in 2026 traffic guidance.
EES Deployment Timing and OpEx Impact
Postponement of the Exit/Entry System deployment to late 2025 reduced certain 2025 costs but will drive higher OpEx in 2026 as rollout continues, adding to short-term operational expense pressure.
Company Guidance
The company guided to 2026 EBITDA “above EUR 2.35 billion,” supported mainly by international assets (TAV) while assuming flat regulated tariffs (0% average, 2025 levels effective Apr 1, 2026), Paris traffic growth of 1.5–2.5% (mostly international), group CapEx around EUR 1.45 billion (≈EUR 1.0 billion at ADP SA), and a one‑off larger staff‑cost step in 2026 (wage increase roughly twice the normal annual run rate) as part of the compensation reform; other numeric anchors disclosed include 2025 Extime spend EUR 31.7 (2026 assumption >EUR 32), TAV’s 2026 EBITDA guidance EUR 590–650 million, end‑2025 net debt of EUR 8.6 billion with net debt/EBITDA at 3.7x (target range 3.5–4x), regulated ROCE 4.3% in 2025 (up 0.3 ppt), a dividend policy of 60% payout with a EUR 3 floor per share, and an ERA negotiation timetable with the regulator’s non‑binding opinion expected by April 11 and binding ART approval aimed for Q4 2026 to come into force Jan 1, 2027.Aeroports de Paris Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Operations are strong with steady revenue growth and solid operating/EBITDA margins, but the overall financial profile is held back by elevated leverage and a sharp 2025 free-cash-flow decline/volatility, reducing flexibility for a capital-intensive airport operator.Income Statement
Revenue has grown steadily since 2022 (2025 up ~8% vs. 2024), showing a sustained post-downturn recovery. Profitability is solid at the operating level (2025 operating margin ~19.7% and EBITDA margin ~34.6%), indicating good underlying earnings power for an airport operator. The key weakness is that bottom-line profitability remains relatively thin (2025 net margin ~5.7%) and well below 2022–2023 levels, reflecting higher depreciation/interest/taxes and/or other below-the-line pressure.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is asset-heavy with meaningful leverage: debt-to-equity is elevated (about 2.3–2.9x over 2021–2025; ~2.44x in 2025), which can constrain flexibility in a cyclical travel environment. Equity is positive and fairly stable, and returns on equity have recovered into positive territory (about 8.4% in 2025), but they are below the stronger 2022–2023 levels and remain sensitive to financing costs given the debt load.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash generation is consistently positive and improved materially from 2020–2021, reaching ~1.46B in 2025, supporting debt service and reinvestment. However, free cash flow has become more volatile and weakened sharply in 2025 (~247M; down ~56% year over year), suggesting heavier capital spending and/or working-capital drag. Cash conversion also looks modest, with free cash flow running well below net income in 2025 (free cash flow at ~17% of net income).58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.44B | 6.16B | 5.50B | 4.69B | 2.78B |
| Gross Profit | 3.22B | 3.08B | 2.40B | 1.69B | 520.00M |
| EBITDA | 2.23B | 1.87B | 2.09B | 1.83B | 701.00M |
| Net Income | 365.96M | 342.00M | 631.00M | 516.00M | -248.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 20.26B | 20.18B | 19.66B | 18.84B | 18.36B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.87B | 2.10B | 2.44B | 2.82B | 2.49B |
| Total Debt | 10.58B | 10.14B | 9.82B | 9.99B | 10.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.72B | 14.67B | 14.36B | 13.93B | 14.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.34B | 4.42B | 4.36B | 4.03B | 3.52B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 246.86M | 435.00M | 578.00M | 645.00M | 24.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.46B | 1.52B | 1.59B | 1.34B | 551.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.06B | -1.46B | -1.15B | -726.00M | -1.09B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -438.00M | -458.00M | -721.00M | -367.00M | -536.00M |
Aeroports de Paris Technical Analysis
Negative
13.73
Price Trends
13.23
Negative
13.65
Negative
13.34
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.46
Positive
32.20
Neutral
1.98
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARRPY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.21, above the 50-day MA of 13.23, and above the 200-day MA of 13.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARRPY.
Aeroports de Paris Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $5.13B | 19.42 | 52.26% | 4.03% | -2.04% | -3.82% | |
71 Outperform | $4.07B | 13.32 | 12.78% | ― | 14.87% | -47.71% | |
69 Neutral | $9.64B | 16.66 | 30.03% | 11.85% | 8.70% | -21.15% | |
65 Neutral | $11.50B | 23.99 | 44.97% | 4.46% | 11.58% | 1.15% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $11.76B | 31.73 | 9.06% | 2.66% | 10.84% | -87.89% | |
50 Neutral | $9.62B | -11.73 | -91.52% | ― | 1934.50% | -92.33% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ARRPY
Aeroports de Paris
11.88
1.06
9.78%
OMAB
Grupo Aeroportuario Del Centro
108.75
31.15
40.14%
PAC
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico
230.90
46.67
25.33%
ASR
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste
325.70
71.80
28.28%
CAAP
Corporacion America Airports SA
24.93
5.65
29.30%
JOBY
Joby Aviation
9.82
3.65
59.16%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.