Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $189.87M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 829.62K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.25
• Revenue Growth: -41.53%
• EPS Growth: -11.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: 174
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.03
• Shares Outstanding: 28,423,069
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 934,920
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 829,622
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.50
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -0.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -0.24
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -0.25
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.24
• 1Y Price Target: $16.74
• Price Target Upside: 152.49% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): -2.76
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $71.45M

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.50 ▼(-1.96% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/04/26

The score is held back primarily by weak operating performance and negative free cash flow despite a strong, low-leverage balance sheet. Earnings-call updates add moderate support through regulatory/program milestones and an extended cash runway, while technicals are only modestly improved and valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Low leverage and sizable equity give Arcturus durable financial flexibility to fund clinical programs and absorb R&D timing variability. Combined with a multi-year runway, this reduces near-term refinancing risk and supports strategic partnership or licensing negotiations without immediate dilution.

Regulatory Validation (Costave MHRA)

UK approval for Costave is a structural validation of the sa-mRNA platform, lowering regulatory and technical risk for future programs. Approval enhances commercial credibility, creates a path to recurring product revenue or royalties, and strengthens negotiating leverage with partners and funders long-term.

Platform Immunogenicity Evidence

Durable 8-month immune responses in Phase I provide durable proof-of-concept for the STARR® sa-mRNA platform. External BARDA funding and safety data materially de-risk science, enhance partner interest, and support further government or commercial programs over the coming years.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

Multi-year negative operating and free cash flow indicates structural cash burn that requires ongoing external funding or milestone revenue. The 2025 increase in burn despite reported net income suggests earnings quality is weak and cash conversion remains a durable constraint on growth and program funding.

Declining Revenue Trend

Sustained revenue declines reduce internal financing capacity and reflect reliance on milestone timing and partner economics. Without a reversal, shrinking top-line constrains reinvestment in R&D, limits scale-up options, and increases dependence on external capital or deal-making to sustain development programs.

Commercial and Clinical Uncertainty

Ongoing CSL discussions and U.S. regulatory uncertainty for Costave create durable commercial unpredictability for milestone and product revenue. Coupled with small early clinical cohorts, this increases execution risk and delays the timing of sustainable revenues and larger confirmatory trials.

Arcturus Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc., an RNA medicines company, focuses on the development of vaccines for infectious, and liver and respiratory rare diseases in the United States. The company's development programs comprise LUNAR-OTC development program for ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency; and LUNAR-CF program for cystic fibrosis lung disease caused by mutations in cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene, as well as vaccine programs include LUNAR-COV19 and LUNAR-FLU. It has collaboration partnerships with Vinbiocare Biotechnology Joint Stock Company for the manufacture of COVID-19 vaccines; Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop nucleic acid-based therapeutic candidates for the treatment of hepatitis B virus; Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. to develop mRNA therapeutic candidates for rare disease targets; CureVac AG to develop mRNA therapeutic and vaccine candidates for various indications; Singapore Economic Development Board and Duke-NUS Medical School to develop LUNAR-COV19 vaccine; and Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to discover siRNA medicines for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Arcturus primarily makes money through (1) collaboration and licensing revenue and (2) government or third-party funding tied to research and development activities; it may also generate (3) product revenue where it has commercialized products, and (4) interest and other income from cash and investments. 1) Collaboration/licensing revenue: As a clinical-stage mRNA company, Arcturus commonly monetizes its platform and product candidates by partnering with larger pharmaceutical companies or regional partners. These agreements typically generate revenue via upfront payments (paid at signing for access to technology or rights), development and regulatory milestone payments (triggered as a program advances through clinical trials and approvals), commercial milestone payments (triggered by launch or sales thresholds), and royalties or profit-sharing on net sales if partnered products reach market. If Arcturus provides services or materials under a partnership (e.g., development work, technology transfer, or manufacturing-related activities), it can recognize revenue based on performance obligations under the contract. 2) Government/third-party R&D funding: For certain vaccine or biodefense-related programs, biotechnology companies like Arcturus may receive funding from government agencies or other organizations to support development. This can be recognized as revenue (depending on the accounting treatment and contract structure) or recorded as offsets to R&D expense. Specific counterparties, amounts, or program details are null. 3) Product revenue: If Arcturus has an approved and commercialized product (directly or via a partner), it can generate revenue from product sales (if it sells directly) or from its share of commercial economics (e.g., royalties or profit share) if commercialization is handled by a partner. Specific marketed products and the extent of direct sales versus partner-based economics are null. 4) Financing-related income: Like many development-stage biotech companies, Arcturus typically holds cash and marketable securities to fund operations. Interest income and changes in investment income can contribute to reported earnings, though these are generally secondary to partnership-related revenue in the long run. Key factors influencing earnings: Because many programs are in development, Arcturus’ revenue can be uneven and driven by the timing of partnership payments, milestones, and funding receipts. Progress in clinical trials, regulatory outcomes, manufacturing scale-up, and the formation or expansion of strategic partnerships materially affect its ability to generate meaningful recurring revenue.

Arcturus Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet is a clear strength with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.10) and sizable equity, but operating fundamentals are weak: revenue has declined for multiple years, operating losses persist, and cash flow/free cash flow have been negative in 2023–2025 with worsening burn in 2025. The return to positive net income in 2025 is encouraging but appears driven by non-operating items given the deeply negative operating result and weak cash conversion.

Income Statement

Results are volatile. Revenue has been shrinking for several years (2025 down ~11% after declines in 2023–2024), and profitability is weak at the operating line with sizable operating losses in 2023–2025. A key positive is that 2025 shows a return to positive net income (about 12% net margin) after large losses in 2023–2024, but the mismatch between positive net income and deeply negative operating profit suggests earnings quality is dependent on non-operating items and is less durable.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet strength is the main support. Leverage is low (debt-to-equity roughly 0.10 in 2025, improving from higher levels in 2021–2022), and equity remains sizable, providing flexibility to fund operations. The main weakness is returns on equity have been inconsistent and often negative (improving to modestly positive in 2025), reflecting that capital has not translated into stable operating profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a concern. Operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative in 2023–2025, with a larger cash burn in 2025 than 2024, despite the rebound to positive net income—highlighting weaker cash conversion. While 2022 showed positive operating and free cash flow, the recent multi-year pattern points to ongoing funding needs unless operations improve materially.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	67.22M	138.39M	157.75M	205.75M	12.36M
Gross Profit	64.20M	138.39M	157.75M	205.75M	12.36M
EBITDA	-71.93M	-77.40M	-24.16M	13.70M	-201.66M
Net Income	-65.78M	-80.94M	-29.73M	9.35M	-203.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	271.15M	344.07M	429.40M	450.39M	392.81M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	230.91M	237.03M	292.00M	391.88M	370.49M
Total Debt	25.00M	28.55M	30.22M	94.75M	69.15M
Total Liabilities	57.16M	103.09M	150.89M	180.07M	164.60M
Stockholders Equity	213.99M	240.98M	278.51M	270.31M	228.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-74.27M	-60.40M	-21.00M	24.27M	-138.45M
Operating Cash Flow	-74.27M	-59.75M	-18.10M	31.99M	-135.04M
Investing Cash Flow	-230.00K	-648.00K	-2.90M	-7.73M	-3.41M
Financing Cash Flow	13.38M	5.42M	-24.09M	-2.86M	48.02M

Arcturus Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.63
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARCT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.64, below the 50-day MA of 7.39, and below the 200-day MA of 11.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARCT.

Arcturus Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RIGL	73 Outperform	$479.38M	2.10	240.83%	―	79.13%	2798.12%
OLMA	56 Neutral	$1.16B	-4.97	-41.51%	―	―	17.23%
ERAS	55 Neutral	$4.23B	-8.47	-32.00%	―	―	45.66%
CMPX	52 Neutral	$934.66M	-12.74	-43.61%	―	-100.00%	-28.79%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ARCT	50 Neutral	$189.87M	-1.44	-27.43%	―	-41.53%	-11.32%
ARVN	50 Neutral	$779.04M	-9.53	-14.25%	―	―	―