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AppFolio
(NASDAQ:APPF)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$218.00
▲(32.08% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/24/26
APPF scores well primarily on improved profitability, outstanding free-cash-flow generation, and a low-leverage balance sheet, reinforced by raised guidance and margin expansion targets from the latest earnings call. The score is held back by a cautious technical picture (below key moving averages), a relatively high P/E with no dividend support, and some execution sensitivity around cost pressures and sustaining premium/value-added services adoption.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
AppFolio's recent TTM cash conversion is exceptionally strong: operating cash flow of $273M and free cash flow of $269M indicate earnings reliably convert to cash. Durable free cash flow supports reinvestment, buybacks, and cushioning against cyclical or product‑mix shocks over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Reliance on Value‑Added Upsells
A sizable portion of growth and margin expansion depends on upselling premium tiers and transaction services rather than unit increases. If premium adoption softens, ARPU-driven growth and high‑margin revenue could slow quickly, exposing earnings to execution risk across the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
AppFolio's recent TTM cash conversion is exceptionally strong: operating cash flow of $273M and free cash flow of $269M indicate earnings reliably convert to cash. Durable free cash flow supports reinvestment, buybacks, and cushioning against cyclical or product‑mix shocks over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
AppFolio Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Category
Breaks revenue into subscription fees, transaction or services income, and other streams to show how much of sales is predictable versus variable. A larger subscription share implies steadier, higher-margin cash flow; growing transaction/services revenue can lift short-term top-line but tends to be more cyclical and lower margin. Shifts between categories reveal changes in business quality, scalability, and management’s focus on growth versus profitability.
Breaks revenue into subscription fees, transaction or services income, and other streams to show how much of sales is predictable versus variable. A larger subscription share implies steadier, higher-margin cash flow; growing transaction/services revenue can lift short-term top-line but tends to be more cyclical and lower margin. Shifts between categories reveal changes in business quality, scalability, and management’s focus on growth versus profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAppFolio (APPF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.38B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)378.89K
Price to Earnings (P/E)40.9
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth20.66%
EPS Growth-21.24%
CountryUS
Employees1,702
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.41
Shares Outstanding24,087,366
10 Day Avg. Volume415,149
30 Day Avg. Volume378,893
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.95
Price to Book (P/B)15.44
Price to Sales (P/S)8.81
P/FCF Ratio35.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$229.86Price Target Upside39.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)6.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.12B
AppFolio Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AppFolio, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud-based platform for the real estate industry in the United States. The company provides a cloud-based platform that assist with accounting, reporting, marketing, leasing, maintenance, w...
How the Company Makes Money
AppFolio primarily makes money by selling subscription access to its cloud software platforms to property managers and real estate operators, typically priced based on usage factors such as the number of units/doors managed and the specific produc...
AppFolio Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents strong top-line growth, accelerating profitability, robust AI adoption, and raised full-year guidance — indicating solid operational and financial momentum. Key challenges include cost pressures related to payments mix and increased data center spend to support AI, and reliance on value-added services and premium-tier adoption to sustain revenue and margin expansion. Overall, the positives (revenue growth, margin improvement, high AI/product adoption, and raised guidance) materially outweigh the risks described.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of $262 million, up 20% year-over-year (from $218M in Q1 2025), reflecting continued strength in new business wins and expanded product adoption.
Negative Updates
Cost Pressure from Payments Mix and Data Center Spend
Cost of revenue (exclusive of depreciation and amortization) remained flat at 36% of revenue; management cited offsetting factors including payments product mix and additional data center spending to support growing AI usage, which could continue to pressure gross margins if usage trends change.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of $262 million, up 20% year-over-year (from $218M in Q1 2025), reflecting continued strength in new business wins and expanded product adoption.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AppFolio raised its 2026 financial guidance to revenue of $1.11 billion to $1.125 billion (implying ~17.5% growth at the midpoint), expects non‑GAAP operating margin of 26%–28% (vs. 24.7% in 2025), sees cost of revenue excluding D&A roughly flat as a percent of revenue, anticipates modest declines in operating expenses as a percent of revenue despite continued hiring, expects 2026 revenue seasonality to be mostly consistent with 2025, projects diluted weighted‑average shares of approximately 36 million for the year, and has $125 million remaining on its share repurchase program (after deploying $125 million in Q1 to buy 702,500 shares and repurchasing nearly 1.4 million shares in 2025–2026 to date); management said these priorities are intended to grow operating cash flow, manage dilution, and drive durable customer performance.AppFolio Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.04B | 950.82M | 794.20M | 620.45M | 471.88M | 359.37M |
| Gross Profit | 656.19M | 582.83M | 492.59M | 382.37M | 280.06M | 215.43M |
| EBITDA | 207.19M | 183.76M | 169.87M | 36.63M | -30.41M | 35.78M |
| Net Income | 157.53M | 140.92M | 204.07M | 2.70M | -68.12M | 1.03M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 648.37M | 722.27M | 626.68M | 408.89M | 381.22M | 408.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 221.69M | 251.47M | 278.50M | 211.71M | 160.07M | 122.45M |
| Total Debt | 30.66M | 71.45M | 41.75M | 44.74M | 53.59M | 57.61M |
| Total Liabilities | 122.23M | 179.69M | 107.39M | 111.58M | 115.67M | 110.64M |
| Stockholders Equity | 526.14M | 542.58M | 519.29M | 297.31M | 265.55M | 297.38M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 269.08M | 238.95M | 186.14M | 46.42M | 18.82M | 2.67M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 272.90M | 242.10M | 188.16M | 60.28M | 25.36M | 35.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 32.71M | 10.24M | -151.76M | -55.58M | -6.47M | -110.46M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -161.68M | -187.89M | -43.40M | -25.96M | -6.16M | -7.35M |
AppFolio Technical Analysis
Positive
165.05
Price Trends
169.66
Positive
164.98
Positive
190.84
Positive
Market Momentum
7.45
Negative
64.57
Neutral
77.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APPF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 165.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 179.82, below the 50-day MA of 169.66, and below the 200-day MA of 190.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APPF.
AppFolio Risk Analysis
AppFolio disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AppFolio reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AppFolio Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $6.38B | 40.86 | 30.92% | ― | 20.66% | -21.24% | |
74 Outperform | $8.26B | -210.17 | -3.13% | ― | 15.41% | 73.03% | |
66 Neutral | $4.49B | -13,675.76 | <0.01% | ― | 12.47% | -98.50% | |
63 Neutral | $2.18B | 68.48 | 4.74% | ― | -11.45% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $7.92B | -56.89 | -8.97% | ― | 24.09% | 59.33% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
55 Neutral | $194.77M | -7.70 | -8.50% | ― | -9.70% | 61.30% |
* Technology Sector Average
APPF
AppFolio
198.74
-82.14
-29.24%
BILL
Bill.com Holdings
47.99
8.87
22.67%
SMRT
SmartRent
1.42
0.17
13.60%
PCOR
Procore Technologies
57.06
-4.56
-7.40%
EVCM
EverCommerce
10.92
0.43
4.10%
TTAN
ServiceTitan, Inc. Class A
85.83
-12.69
-12.88%
AppFolio Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
AppFolio refreshes board leadership and director governance
Neutral
Jul 1, 2026
On June 26, 2026, AppFolio announced that long-serving directors Andreas von Blottnitz, the Board’s Chairman, and Janet Kerr would retire effective June 29, 2026, with the company emphasizing that their departures were not related to any dis...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AppFolio Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
AppFolio, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 12, 2026, with 20,842,533 Class A shares and 11,235,106 Class B shares present or represented by proxy, reflecting the company’s dual-class share structure where Class B sha...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.