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Apogee (APOG)
NASDAQ:APOG

Apogee (APOG) AI Stock Analysis

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APOG

Apogee

(NASDAQ:APOG)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▼(-10.62% Downside)
The score is held back primarily by deteriorating TTM profitability alongside higher leverage, plus very weak technical momentum (price below major moving averages, oversold readings). Partially offsetting this are a reasonable income profile (3.24% dividend yield) and an earnings-call outlook that includes cost-savings initiatives and solid execution in Services/UW Solutions, though tariffs, aluminum inflation, and weaker operating cash flow remain meaningful risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained TTM revenue growth (~52%) indicates strong demand pickup and expanded project wins across segments. Higher top-line scale enhances capacity to invest in R&D, absorb fixed costs, and support integration of acquisitions, improving durable earnings potential if growth persists.
Services Momentum & UW Solutions
The UW Solutions acquisition ramp and Services' seventh consecutive quarter of sales growth with a $775M backlog diversify revenue toward higher-margin, recurring services. This structural mix shift reduces exposure to cyclical project timing and supports steadier long-term cash generation and margin resilience.
Balance Sheet Strength
Low near-term maturities and modest consolidated leverage (~1.4x) provide financial flexibility to fund Fortify savings, targeted capex, and M&A. A workable debt profile reduces refinancing risk and preserves capacity to weather cyclical slowdowns over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
Sharp margin deterioration versus prior periods reflects price and cost pressure across Glass and Metals. Persistently compressed margins erode operating leverage and free cash flow conversion, making it harder to fund investments or deleverage even if revenue growth continues.
Rising Leverage
Material increase in debt-to-equity signals greater reliance on leverage, raising interest and covenant sensitivity. If profitability or cash flow remain pressured, higher leverage reduces strategic optionality and increases the risk that financing costs and acquisition-related charges hamper long-term returns.
Commodity & Tariff Headwinds
Significant aluminum inflation and an explicit ~$0.30 EPS tariff drag are structural cost headwinds. Persistent commodity volatility and trade-related costs compress Metals margins, limit pricing power, and can offset operational savings, constraining durable profitability and cash flow recovery.

Apogee (APOG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Apogee Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionApogee Enterprises, Inc. designs and develops glass and metal products and services in the United States, Canada, and Brazil. The company operates in four segments: Architectural Framing Systems, Architectural Glass, Architectural Services, and Large-Scale Optical Technologies (LSO). The Architectural Framing Systems segment designs, engineers, fabricates, and finishes the aluminum frames used in customized aluminum and glass window; curtain wall; storefront; and entrance systems, such as the outside skin and entrances of commercial, institutional, and multi-family residential buildings. The Architectural Glass segment fabricates coated and high-performance glass used in customized window and wall systems, including the outside skin of commercial, institutional, and multi-family residential buildings. The Architectural Services segment offers full-service installation of the walls of glass, windows, and other curtain wall products making up the outside skin of commercial and institutional buildings. The LSO segment manufactures value-added glass and acrylic products for framing and display applications. The company's products and services are primarily used in commercial buildings, such as office buildings, hotels, and retail centers; and institutional buildings comprising education facilities, health care facilities, and government buildings, as well as multi-family residential buildings. It markets its architectural products and services through direct sales force, independent sales representatives, and distributors to glazing subcontractors and general contractors; and value-added glass and acrylics through retail chains, picture-framing shops, and independent distributors to museums, galleries, and other customers. The company was incorporated in 1949 and is based in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
How the Company Makes MoneyApogee generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of architectural glass products and framing systems. Their revenue model includes direct sales to contractors and construction firms, as well as partnerships with architects and builders that specify their products for projects. The company also benefits from a growing demand for energy-efficient and sustainable building materials, which positions their high-performance glass products favorably in the market. Additionally, Apogee's Large-Scale Optical Technologies segment contributes to revenue through the production of precision optical components used in various industries. Significant partnerships with leading construction firms and architectural design companies further bolster their earnings, allowing for collaboration on large-scale projects and enhancing their market presence.

Apogee Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 29, 2025
(Q3-2026)
|
Next Earnings Date:Apr 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of constructive execution and meaningful near-term headwinds. Positive takeaways include the successful integration of UW Solutions (on track to deliver $100M sales and ~20% EBITDA margin), ongoing operational improvements via AMS and Fortify (expanded to target ~$25–26M annual pretax savings), continued services momentum (7th consecutive quarter of sales growth and backlog up >4%), and a strong balance sheet (1.4x leverage, no near-term maturities). Offsetting these positives are notable challenges: higher aluminum prices (up ~13% QoQ and >50% YoY) pressuring metals volume and margins, soft pricing in glass, a significant year-to-date decline in operating cash flow (~29% lower vs prior year), and FY26 EPS headwinds from tariffs (~$0.30) plus acquisition-related amortization/interest. Management has updated FY26 guidance and is taking restructuring and cost actions, but macro-driven margin compression and cash-flow weakness temper near-term optimism.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Modest Consolidated Revenue Growth
Net sales increased 2.1% year-over-year to $348.6 million in the quarter, driven primarily by $18.4 million of inorganic sales from the UW Solutions acquisition and favorable product mix.
UW Solutions Integration Success
UW Solutions celebrated its one-year anniversary; management reported being pleased with initial results and on track to deliver fiscal 2026 expectations of approximately $100 million in net sales and ~20% adjusted EBITDA margin.
Services Segment Momentum
Services delivered its seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year net sales growth, with adjusted EBITDA margin rising to 9.7% and backlog ending the quarter at $775 million (up over 4% compared to Q3 of last year).
Operational Improvement via AMS and Fortify
Management highlighted continued productivity improvements from the Apogee Management System (AMS) and cost-savings execution from Fortify phase two, with Fortify expansion expected to generate further annual pretax savings of ~$25–26 million.
Metals Segment Margin Improvement
Despite lower metals volume, adjusted EBITDA margin in Metals improved to 13.5%, primarily driven by increased productivity, cost savings from Fortify phase two, lower incentive compensation expense, and favorable price/product mix.
Solid Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Consolidated leverage ratio was reported at 1.4x, with no near-term debt maturities and significant capital available for future deployment; management emphasized financial flexibility for M&A.
Updated FY26 Guidance and Tax/CapEx Outlook
Company updated full-year FY26 guidance to net sales of approximately $1.39 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.40–$3.50 (including an estimated ~$0.30 EPS impact from tariffs); management expects an adjusted effective tax rate of ~27% and capex of $25–30 million.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Pressure Consolidated
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin decreased slightly to 13.2% year-over-year, primarily due to lower volume and price, and higher aluminum and health insurance costs.
Earnings Per Share Decline
Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.02 for the quarter (in line with expectations) but down year-over-year, primarily driven by higher amortization and interest expense related to the UW Solutions acquisition.
Sharp Aluminum Price Increases Impacting Metals
Average aluminum prices rose approximately 13% from Q2 to Q3 and are up over 50% versus the prior-year quarter, driving volume pressure and margin compression in Metals; management expects continued impact into Q4 and to some extent into FY2027.
Glass Pricing and Margin Softness
Glass net sales increased slightly to approximately $71 million, but adjusted EBITDA margin moderated versus prior year due to lower prices and higher material costs amid end-market demand softness.
Performance Surfaces Dilution
Performance Surfaces net sales increased driven by UW Solutions inorganic contribution, but adjusted EBITDA margin decreased due to the dilutive impact of UW Solutions' lower margin and unfavorable productivity.
Decline in Year-to-Date Operating Cash Flow
Year-to-date net cash provided by operating activities was $66.6 million compared to $95.1 million in the prior year (down approximately 29%), reflecting lower operating cash flow earlier in the fiscal year.
Macroeconomic and Cost Headwinds
Management cited challenging macro dynamics—competitive pricing pressure and volume softness in Metals and Glass—as well as expected headwinds going into FY2027 from normalization of incentive compensation and higher health insurance costs; tariffs negatively impacted FY26 EPS by an estimated ~$0.30.
Company Guidance
Management updated fiscal 2026 guidance to net sales of approximately $1.39 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.40–$3.50 (including an estimated $0.30 EPS drag from tariffs), with an adjusted effective tax rate of ~27% and capital expenditures of $25–30 million; they plan Project Fortify Phase 2 to incur ~$28–29 million of pretax charges and deliver ~$25–26 million of annual pretax cost savings (about $10 million of benefit in fiscal 2027). For context Q3 results included net sales of $348.6 million, consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.2% (metals 13.5%, services 9.7%, glass ≈$71M sales), Q3 operating cash flow of $29.3M (YTD $66.6M vs prior $95.1M), services backlog $775M (up >4% YoY), consolidated leverage of 1.4x with no near‑term maturities, and UW Solutions on track for ~$100M net sales at ~20% adjusted EBITDA margin; management also noted aluminum prices rose ~13% QoQ and >50% YoY and expects most tariff impact not to repeat in FY27.

Apogee Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mixed fundamentals: TTM revenue growth is strong (~52%), but profitability stepped down sharply (net margin ~2.9% vs ~6.2% prior; EBIT margin ~5.3% vs ~10.3%). Leverage has risen (debt-to-equity ~0.61) while ROE cooled (~8.1%), and free cash flow remains positive (~$67M) but is down vs the prior annual level with modest operating cash flow coverage.
Income Statement
62
Positive
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a sharp step-down in profitability versus the prior annual period: net margin fell to ~2.9% from ~6.2%, and EBIT margin compressed to ~5.3% from ~10.3%. While revenue growth in TTM is strong (~52%), the margin compression suggests the growth is coming with heavier cost pressure and/or mix headwinds. Longer-term, revenue has been relatively choppy (negative growth in 2024 and 2025 annual), which tempers the otherwise solid historical profitability profile.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Leverage has increased meaningfully: debt-to-equity is ~0.61 in TTM (up from ~0.23 in 2024 annual and ~0.46 in 2023 annual), indicating a more debt-reliant capital structure. Returns are positive but have also cooled, with return on equity at ~8.1% in TTM versus ~17.4% in the 2025 annual period and ~21.1% in 2024 annual. Overall, the balance sheet is still workable, but the direction of higher leverage and lower returns is a notable risk if earnings remain pressured.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash generation remains positive, with TTM free cash flow of ~$67M and free cash flow running at ~70% of net income, indicating earnings are converting to cash reasonably well. However, operating cash flow coverage is modest in both TTM (~0.42) and 2025 annual (~0.44), and free cash flow is down versus the 2025 annual level (~$90M) despite strong TTM growth reported. The profile is healthy enough, but less robust than the strong 2024 annual cash flow performance.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.36B1.42B1.44B1.31B1.23B
Gross Profit364.08M372.63M335.27M302.36M275.69M
EBITDA184.93M187.82M168.19M152.01M139.64M
Net Income85.05M99.61M104.11M3.49M15.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.18B884.06M915.37M887.86M1.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments46.25M40.01M19.92M37.58M47.28M
Total Debt351.92M106.19M214.72M215.34M226.69M
Total Liabilities687.37M413.04M518.96M501.66M522.35M
Stockholders Equity487.90M471.02M396.41M386.20M492.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow89.57M160.97M57.52M78.63M115.70M
Operating Cash Flow125.16M204.15M102.70M100.47M141.86M
Investing Cash Flow-265.89M-43.67M-27.71M9.28M-2.15M
Financing Cash Flow146.05M-144.61M-91.02M-120.57M-107.88M

Apogee Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price36.92
Price Trends
50DMA
36.48
Positive
100DMA
38.84
Negative
200DMA
40.02
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.51
Negative
RSI
51.67
Neutral
STOCH
75.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APOG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.59, above the 50-day MA of 36.48, and below the 200-day MA of 40.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for APOG.

Apogee Risk Analysis

Apogee disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Apogee reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Apogee Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$621.26M44.612.20%-0.19%-50.51%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
62
Neutral
$984.27M21.348.64%-10.84%-53.49%
60
Neutral
$1.72B770.2713.29%-9.21%-97.43%
54
Neutral
$789.42M19.847.73%2.77%1.19%-56.98%
54
Neutral
$848.18M-3.41-28.88%2.12%43.81%-584.11%
40
Underperform
$271.67M-0.41-155.46%-15.28%-350.51%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
APOG
Apogee
36.92
-17.44
-32.09%
BXC
Bluelinx Holdings
76.31
-34.11
-30.89%
ROCK
Gibraltar Industries
57.00
-6.03
-9.57%
NX
Quanex
18.71
-5.00
-21.09%
JELD
JELD-WEN
3.15
-6.65
-67.86%
JBI
Janus International Group
7.17
-0.72
-9.13%

Apogee Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Apogee announces chief financial officer leadership transition
Neutral
Jan 7, 2026

Apogee reported a transition in the role of its chief financial officer, disclosing the leadership change in a press release referenced in a recent regulatory filing. The company noted that the press release was furnished rather than filed under securities regulations, indicating it will not automatically be incorporated into future securities registration documents unless explicitly referenced, which may limit its direct legal implications for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (APOG) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apogee stock, see the APOG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Apogee Appoints Donald A. Nolan as New CEO
Neutral
Nov 5, 2025

On October 31, 2025, Apogee Enterprises announced a leadership transition with Donald A. Nolan appointed as the new CEO, succeeding Ty R. Silberhorn. Nolan, who has been with Apogee’s Board since 2013, brings significant leadership experience and aims to drive long-term value creation for shareholders. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook, maintaining its net sales and adjusted EPS forecasts.

The most recent analyst rating on (APOG) stock is a Hold with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apogee stock, see the APOG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 08, 2026