Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.29B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.93M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 141.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: 42.11%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 705
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.47
• Shares Outstanding: 127,829,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,905,541
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,931,132
• PEG Ratio: -1.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 70.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 33.08
• 1Y Price Target: $31.27
• Price Target Upside: 74.79% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.09
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $866.05M

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.50 ▲(3.41% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score reflects an improving financial foundation (profitability and free cash flow turning positive, deleveraging) and a generally positive earnings call with commercial traction and pipeline progress. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative momentum) and a very high P/E alongside near-term net-revenue headwinds from gross-to-net/free goods dynamics.

Positive Factors

SYFOVRE Market Leadership

Sustained injection growth and ~60% share in geographic atrophy indicate structural market leadership tied to long-term clinical differentiation (5‑year data) and payer preference. This creates a durable revenue base from recurring intravitreal dosing and entrenched physician adoption.

EMPAVELI Early Launch & Payer Access

Early adoption metrics plus broad payer coverage establish durable commercial access in a concentrated, ultra‑rare market. Strong reimbursement and initial starts reduce commercialization risk and support a multiyear uptake path toward the company's stated addressable patient population.

Improved Cash Generation & Capital Structure

Transition to positive operating and free cash flow, a sizable cash balance, and materially lower leverage enhance financial flexibility. This durable improvement supports self-funding of pivotal trials and reduces near-term refinancing risk versus prior years of heavy cash burn.

Negative Factors

Revenue Volatility and One-Time Items

A sharp FY2025 revenue decline combined with a sizable one‑time Sobi payment obscures organic growth trends, making underlying demand harder to gauge. This complicates multi‑period forecasting and raises the risk that revenue can re‑reverse if underlying adoption weakens.

High Gross-to-Net and Free Goods Usage

Persistently elevated free goods and growing gross‑to‑net deductions structurally reduce net realized price and cash conversion from product sales. For recurring therapies, continued reliance on assistance programs can compress sustainable margins and lengthen the path to profitable scale.

Near-Term Financing & Higher R&D/Opex

A material convertible maturity coupled with planned higher operating spend to fund pivotal programs increases near‑term liquidity needs despite improved cash. This elevates execution risk: the company may need to raise capital, reallocate cash, or slow investments, affecting timelines and potential dilution.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutic compounds through the inhibition of the complement system for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. The company's lead product candidate is pegcetacoplan that is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of geographic atrophy (GA) in age-related macular degeneration and paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) diseases. It also develops EMPAVELI (systemic pegcetacoplan) for the treatment of cold agglutinin disease (CAD), and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (HSCT-TMA) in hematology; C3 glomerulopathy (C3G), and immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN) in nephrology; and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in neurology. In addition, the company develops APL-2006, a bispecific C3 and VEGF inhibitor for treating complement-mediated disorders; APL-1030, a C3 inhibitor for the treatment of multiple neurodegenerative diseases; and the combination of EMPAVELI and a small interfering RNA, or siRNA for reducing the production of C3 proteins by the liver. It has a collaboration and license agreement with Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (publ) to co-develop pegcetacoplan; and a research collaboration with Beam Therapeutics Inc. focused on the use of Beam's base editing technology to discover new treatments for complement-driven diseases. Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Apellis makes money primarily through (1) net product revenue from selling its approved drugs and (2) collaboration/partner-related economics. 1) Net product revenue (drug sales) - SYFOVRE (pegcetacoplan injection): Apellis generates revenue from U.S. sales of SYFOVRE through specialty pharmaceutical distribution channels used for retina therapies. Demand is driven by prescribing by retina specialists and ongoing patient treatment, as SYFOVRE is administered via intravitreal injection and may be used on a recurring dosing schedule. - EMPAVELI (pegcetacoplan): Apellis generates revenue from sales of EMPAVELI for PNH. As a chronic condition therapy, revenues depend on patient starts, duration on therapy, reimbursement access, and competitive dynamics in the PNH market. Net product revenue generally reflects gross sales less standard deductions such as rebates, chargebacks, discounts, returns, and allowances (specific figures not provided here). 2) Partnerships, collaborations, and other revenue - Sobi partnership (ex-U.S. EMPAVELI): Apellis partnered with Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (Sobi) for commercialization of pegcetacoplan for hematology indications outside the United States. Apellis’ earnings from this arrangement can include payments such as upfront or milestone payments and/or royalties or profit-share related to ex-U.S. sales; specific payment structure details and amounts are null. - Other collaboration-related income: Apellis may also generate revenue from licensing arrangements, milestones, or cost reimbursements tied to development/commercial activities; specific counterparties and amounts beyond publicly known major partnerships are null. Key factors influencing earnings - Market adoption and persistence of SYFOVRE and EMPAVELI (prescriber uptake, patient adherence, competitive therapies). - Pricing and reimbursement (payer coverage decisions, Medicare/insurance dynamics, patient assistance). - Safety/labeling and clinical data that can affect demand. - Partner execution in territories commercialized by collaborators and achievement of any contractual milestones (details/amounts null).

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are improving: 2025 turned to positive operating profit/net income and positive operating/free cash flow (~$45M), while leverage fell to a modest level (debt-to-equity ~0.30). Offsetting this, 2025 revenue declined sharply (-32%) and results have been volatile, keeping the profile “improving but still uneven.”

Income Statement

Profitability inflected meaningfully in 2025 as the company moved to positive operating profit and net income (about 3% net margin) after large losses in 2021–2024. Gross margins remain very strong (~85%+), consistent with an attractive product economics profile. The key offset is growth volatility: revenue fell sharply in 2025 (-32%) following a strong ramp in 2023–2024, which raises questions around durability and near-term momentum.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved substantially in 2025: debt is modest versus equity (debt-to-equity ~0.30) compared with elevated leverage in 2024 (~2.06). Equity increased and returns turned positive in 2025 (about 6% return on equity) after deeply negative returns in prior years, signaling a cleaner capital structure and improving financial flexibility. A remaining watch item is the history of large losses in prior years, which can re-emerge if revenue softness persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation turned positive in 2025 with operating cash flow and free cash flow both positive (~$45M), a clear improvement versus materially negative cash burn in 2021–2024. Free cash flow roughly matched net income in 2025, suggesting earnings quality improved. The main weakness is that free cash flow declined versus 2024 (down ~42%), and the prior-year pattern shows meaningful cash flow volatility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.00B	781.37M	396.59M	75.42M	66.56M
Gross Profit	901.55M	663.64M	338.08M	69.79M	61.36M
EBITDA	70.00M	-154.53M	-495.21M	-617.39M	-731.27M
Net Income	22.39M	-197.88M	-528.63M	-652.17M	-746.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.08B	885.05M	788.73M	760.22M	881.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	467.76M	416.14M	352.30M	551.80M	701.23M
Total Debt	486.31M	469.78M	110.93M	112.71M	210.22M
Total Liabilities	705.11M	656.51M	594.21M	590.35M	683.10M
Stockholders Equity	370.15M	228.54M	194.52M	169.87M	198.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	45.01M	-88.27M	-595.51M	-515.27M	-564.23M
Operating Cash Flow	45.33M	-87.87M	-594.74M	-513.75M	-563.13M
Investing Cash Flow	-313.00K	-403.00K	-674.00K	59.89M	247.62M
Financing Cash Flow	8.88M	149.24M	394.50M	365.66M	392.24M

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.89
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APLS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.33, below the 50-day MA of 21.68, and below the 200-day MA of 22.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.48 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APLS.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MIRM	66 Neutral	$5.53B	-169.72	-8.53%	―	53.66%	58.63%
APLS	56 Neutral	$2.29B	141.40	8.20%	―	42.11%	―
CRNX	55 Neutral	$3.77B	-8.91	-41.46%	―	―	-21.96%
MLTX	55 Neutral	$1.16B	-3.74	-67.12%	―	―	-157.74%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ZLAB	51 Neutral	$2.14B	-11.01	-22.81%	―	23.73%	30.16%

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Adds Mikael Dolsten to Board

On February 27, 2026, Apellis Pharmaceuticals’ board elected Mikael Dolsten, M.D., Ph.D., as an independent Class I director, effective March 1, 2026, with a term running until the 2027 annual meeting of stockholders, reflecting a continuation of standard U.S. public company governance practices. Dolsten, who has no family or related-party ties to existing management or directors and no underlying arrangements for his election, will receive stock options and RSUs valued at $300,000 each under Apellis’ 2017 Stock Incentive Plan, with multi-year and change-in-control vesting features that align his incentives with long-term shareholder interests while also benefiting from an indemnification agreement customary for the company’s board members.

The most recent analyst rating on (APLS) stock is a Buy with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apellis Pharmaceuticals stock, see the APLS Stock Forecast page.