Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) AI Stock Analysis

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Apellis Pharmaceuticals

(NASDAQ:APLS)

Rating:50Neutral

Price Target:

$18.00

▲( 1.24% Upside)

Apellis Pharmaceuticals displays robust revenue growth and strategic progress with its product pipeline. However, persistent profitability issues, negative valuation metrics, and bearish technical indicators contribute to a cautious overall stock score. The company's solid cash position and recent board appointment are positive, but challenges such as operational inefficiencies and competitive pressures weigh on the outlook.

Positive Factors

Market Expansion

Steady market expansion is expected to be a key driver for Syfovre.

Product Efficacy

Increasing efficacy of Syfovre over time is resonating well with physicians.

Renal Opportunities

Many investors find the renal opportunities for Empaveli attractive, which could be key to future stock performance.

Negative Factors

Competitive Pressure

The biggest potential headwind factor for Syfovre is the full market return of Astellas' Izervay, as they battle for a share of new GA patient starts.

Funding Issues

There is a funding shortage at the co-pay assistance programs, which is unlikely to be resolved soon, potentially increasing the free drug rate and leading to downside for numbers.

Revenue Challenges

Syfovre's sales fell short of Street expectations with sales of just $130.2M in 1Q25 due to channel draw down and funding storage at co-pay assistance foundations.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.33B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.94M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.04

Revenue Growth48.04%

EPS Growth48.16%

CountryUS

Employees705

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength44

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.74

Shares Outstanding125,682,260

10 Day Avg. Volume3,518,216

30 Day Avg. Volume2,935,272

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.50

Price to Book (P/B)9.38

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-24.63

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.85

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.37

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.13

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$37.68

Price Target Upside111.92% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering22

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionApellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (APLS) is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of targeted C3 therapies. These therapies are designed to regulate the complement cascade, which is an essential part of the immune system, to treat a broad range of serious conditions, including rare and debilitating diseases. Headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts, Apellis aims to provide innovative treatment solutions primarily for hematological, ophthalmological, and neurological disorders.

How the Company Makes MoneyApellis Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products. The company's flagship product, EMPAVELI (pegcetacoplan), is a targeted C3 therapy used for the treatment of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH), a rare blood disorder. Revenue is derived from the direct sales of EMPAVELI to healthcare providers and pharmaceutical distributors. Additionally, Apellis may receive milestone payments, royalties, and licensing fees from strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies. These collaborations often involve joint development and commercialization efforts, allowing Apellis to expand the reach of its therapies and tap into new markets.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Product Revenue by Segment

Product Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by specific product lines, highlighting which treatments or drugs are driving sales and indicating potential growth areas or reliance on particular products.

Chart InsightsSYFOVRE's rapid revenue growth has been a standout, maintaining over 60% market share despite recent revenue shortfalls due to inventory and co-pay assistance issues. EMPAVELI's revenue, however, has declined, impacted by similar inventory dynamics and a slight demand dip. The FDA's Priority Review for EMPAVELI in C3G and IC-MPGN could be a turning point, potentially boosting future revenues. Apellis' financial stability, with substantial cash reserves, supports continued investment in these strategic areas, aiming for profitability despite current challenges.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Apellis Pharmaceuticals shows strong revenue growth but faces challenges in profitability. The balance sheet indicates solid liquidity, yet cash flow remains negative, necessitating external financing. Operational inefficiencies are a concern.

Income Statement

Neutral

Apellis Pharmaceuticals has shown significant revenue growth from $75 million in 2022 to $709 million in 2024, indicating a strong upward trajectory. However, the company continues to operate at a net loss, with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, highlighting challenges in achieving profitability. The gross profit margin is robust, but the high net loss reflects ongoing operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company maintains a healthy equity ratio, with stockholders' equity increasing over the years, indicating a solid asset base relative to liabilities. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is moderately high, suggesting reliance on debt financing. The negative net debt indicates strong liquidity, driven by substantial cash reserves.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Operating cash flow remains negative, pointing to cash consumption in operations without generating positive free cash flow. The free cash flow has improved over the years but remains negative, indicating challenges in cash generation. The company relies heavily on financing activities to support its cash needs.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
781.37M	396.59M	75.42M	66.56M	250.65M
	Gross Profit
663.64M	338.08M	69.79M	61.36M	225.60M
	EBIT
-164.98M	-517.12M	-594.61M	-536.28M	-213.73M
	EBITDA
-154.53M	-495.21M	-617.39M	-731.27M	-312.23M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-197.88M	-528.63M	-652.17M	-746.35M	-344.87M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
411.29M	352.30M	551.80M	700.55M	877.65M
	Total Assets
885.05M	788.73M	760.22M	881.76M	960.57M
	Total Debt
469.78M	110.93M	112.71M	210.22M	377.73M
	Net Debt
58.49M	-240.26M	-439.09M	-429.97M	-188.05M
	Total Liabilities
656.51M	594.21M	590.35M	683.10M	756.01M
	Stockholders Equity
228.54M	194.52M	169.87M	198.66M	204.56M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-88.27M	-595.51M	-515.27M	-564.23M	-165.91M
	Operating Cash Flow
-87.87M	-594.74M	-513.75M	-563.13M	-160.49M
	Investing Cash Flow
-403.00K	-674.00K	59.89M	247.62M	-316.99M
	Financing Cash Flow
149.24M	394.50M	365.66M	392.24M	692.18M

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price17.78

Price Trends

50DMA

20.11

Negative

100DMA

24.46

Negative

200DMA

28.50

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.70

Negative

RSI

44.90

Neutral

STOCH

61.86

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APLS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.11, below the 50-day MA of 20.11, and below the 200-day MA of 28.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APLS.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis

Apellis Pharmaceuticals disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Apellis Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

of actions and proceedings that may be initiated by our stockholders, which could discourage lawsuits against our company and our directors, officers and employees. Q4, 2024

may limit our exclusive rights, subject us to expenditure of resources with respect to reporting requirements and limit our ability to contract with foreign manufacturers. Q4, 2024

We are continuing to devote significant resources to support our ongoing commercial activities related to product manufacturing, marketing, sales and distribution of EMPAVELI for PNH and SYFOVRE for GA, and if our cash, cash equivalents, and cash generated from sales of EMPAVELI and SYFOVRE are not sufficient to fund our planned expenditures, we will need to finance our cash needs through external sources of funds. Q4, 2024

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (53)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACAD	79 Outperform	$3.63B	15.91	37.24%	―	22.42%	―
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.24B	3.07	-43.58%	2.80%	16.87%	-0.11%
APLS	50 Neutral	$2.33B	―	-103.82%	―	48.04%	48.16%
SRRK	50 Neutral	$2.99B	―	-106.71%	―	―	-22.34%
CRNX	46 Neutral	$2.94B	―	-30.84%	―	―	-1.20%
IMVT	45 Neutral	$2.55B	―	-74.17%	―	―	-43.10%
MRUS	45 Neutral	$3.05B	―	-58.66%	―	42.77%	-51.27%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

APLS

Apellis Pharmaceuticals

17.42

-22.26

-56.10%

ACAD

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

21.85

6.31

40.60%

MRUS

Merus

43.21

-0.86

-1.95%

SRRK

Scholar Rock Holding

30.72

19.93

184.71%

CRNX

Crinetics Pharmaceuticals

29.95

-18.68

-38.41%

IMVT

Immunovant

14.56

-13.83

-48.71%

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -7.01%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed picture with notable achievements such as FDA Priority Review for EMPAVELI and maintaining market leadership with SYFOVRE. However, revenue challenges due to inventory dynamics and funding shortages for co-pay assistance programs were significant concerns.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

EMPAVELI Priority Review and Phase 3 Success

EMPAVELI received Priority Review designation from the FDA for C3G and IC-MPGN with a PDUFA date of July 28. The Phase 3 VALIANT results showed a 68% reduction in proteinuria, stabilization of kidney function, and substantial clearing of C3c staining.

SYFOVRE Market Leadership

SYFOVRE maintains over 60% market share in geographic atrophy with new patient starts exceeding 50% in Q1 2025 and reaching 55% by late April.

Financial Stability

Apellis has $358 million in cash and cash equivalents, expecting this to be sufficient to fund the business to profitability.

EMPAVELI Blockbuster Potential

U.S. launch of EMPAVELI in C3G and IC-MPGN expected to represent Apellis' third new product launch in four years, expanding presence in rare nephrology indications.

Negative Updates

SYFOVRE Revenue Decline

SYFOVRE net product revenue was $130 million in Q1 2025, impacted by inventory drawdowns and funding shortages at third-party co-pay assistance programs, resulting in increased sample usage.

Challenges with Co-Pay Assistance

Funding shortages at third-party co-pay assistance organizations led to increased sample usage, impacting revenue by approximately $10 million.

EMPAVELI Revenue Decline

Net product revenue for EMPAVELI in PNH was $20 million in Q1 2025, showing a decline due to inventory and pricing dynamics and a small decrease in demand.

Company Guidance

During the Q1 2025 earnings call for Apellis Pharmaceuticals, the company provided several key metrics and guidance. SYFOVRE injection demand grew by 4% quarter-over-quarter, with approximately 92,000 doses delivered, including 82,000 commercial doses and 10,000 samples. Despite this growth, SYFOVRE revenue fell short of expectations, coming in at $130 million, primarily due to inventory drawdown and a co-pay assistance funding shortage, which impacted revenue by approximately $10 million. SYFOVRE maintains over 60% market share, with new patient starts surpassing 50%, reaching 55% by late April. For EMPAVELI, the FDA granted Priority Review for C3G and IC-MPGN, with a PDUFA date set for July 28, 2025. The Phase 3 VALIANT study showed significant results, including a 68% reduction in proteinuria. Apellis expects operating expenses in 2025 to remain in line with 2024 levels, with $358 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1, providing confidence in funding the business to profitability.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Elects Craig Wheeler to Board

Positive

Apr 21, 2025

On April 17, 2025, Apellis Pharmaceuticals elected Craig A. Wheeler to its Board of Directors as a Class III director, with his term lasting until the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Wheeler, who has an extensive background in the biotechnology sector, will also serve on the Audit Committee starting May 1, 2025. His appointment is expected to bring valuable expertise to the company, potentially impacting its strategic direction and strengthening its industry position.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.