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Amrize Ltd (AMRZ)
NYSE:AMRZ
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Amrize Ltd
(NYSE:AMRZ)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$71.00
▲(20.52% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (strong free cash flow and a de-risked balance sheet) and a positive earnings outlook with clear margin/synergy initiatives. These positives are tempered by a relatively high P/E valuation and momentum indicators that are nearing overbought levels, plus segment-specific weakness in Building Envelope and near-term free cash flow pressure from higher CapEx.
Positive Factors
Strong, repeatable free cash flow
Sustained FCF of roughly $1.4–$1.6B and steady operating cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, M&A, and shareholder returns. This cash generation underpins financial flexibility, reduces reliance on external financing, and supports strategic investments over the next several years.
Material deleveraging and liquidity
Sharp reduction in leverage (debt/equity to ~0.45x) and ~ $6B liquidity materially lower balance-sheet risk and increase optionality. A stronger capital structure supports sustained investment, absorptive capacity for acquisitions, and resilience to cyclical downturns over the medium term.
ASPIRE margins, capacity adds & strategic M&A
Clear margin program (ASPIRE) with targeted 70bps uplift and $250M synergies, combined with capacity debottlenecks and the PB Materials add-on, create structural EBITDA expansion. These initiatives should sustainably raise margins and cashflow generation as savings scale and new sites contribute.
Negative Factors
2025 revenue decline and flat multi-year growth
An -8.5% revenue drop in 2025 and a generally flat multi-year top-line trend indicate limited organic growth momentum. Without durable revenue acceleration, margin and return improvements from cost programs may be needed just to offset volume weakness, constraining long-term EPS growth.
Building Envelope segment weakness
A pronounced 11.8% revenue drop and warranty-related charges in Building Envelope highlight product-quality and demand sensitivity in residential roofing. Persistent weakness in this segment could depress consolidated margins and require restructuring or price recovery to restore segment-level profitability over time.
Higher growth CapEx pressures near-term cash conversion
Planned ramp to $900M capex in 2026 increases investment-backed growth but will likely compress near-term free cash flow and worsen cash conversion metrics. If cash conversion remains below historical levels, the company may need to balance investment, debt paydown, and shareholder returns more conservatively.
Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$32.71B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.83M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.3
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryConstruction Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.54
Shares Outstanding552,735,960
10 Day Avg. Volume3,544,629
30 Day Avg. Volume3,830,309
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.63
Price to Book (P/B)2.26
Price to Sales (P/S)2.53
P/FCF Ratio21.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$65.47Price Target Upside11.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)2.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.42B
Amrize Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAmrize AG focuses on building materials business in North America. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is based in Zug, Switzerland. Amrize AG operates independently of Holcim AG as of June 23, 2025.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmrize Ltd generates revenue primarily through the sale of its software solutions and subscription-based services. The core revenue streams include licensing fees from healthcare providers for the use of its telehealth platforms and EHR systems, as well as recurring subscription fees for ongoing support and updates. Additionally, the company has established strategic partnerships with various healthcare organizations and technology firms, which not only enhance its product offerings but also contribute to increased market reach and customer acquisition. These collaborations often result in joint ventures or revenue-sharing agreements that further bolster Amrize's earnings.
Amrize Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive outlook: Amrize reported modest full-year revenue growth, strong adjusted EBITDA ($3.0B), robust cash generation (49% conversion), significant margin expansion in Building Materials, clear progress on the ASPIRE cost-savings program, meaningful capacity expansions and a strategic, accretive acquisition (PB Materials). Management also announced a sizeable shareholder return program and provided constructive 2026 guidance (4%–6% revenue, 8%–11% EBITDA). Offsetting these positives are notable near-term challenges in the Building Envelope/residential roofing business (Q4 revenues down 11.8%, $8M warranty charge), a slight company-level Q4 revenue decline (-0.4%), seasonal Q1 headwinds, and the impact of elevated growth CapEx on free cash flow. Overall, the favorable operating momentum, margin initiatives, balance-sheet strength and constructive guidance outweigh the segment-specific softness and near-term headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue and Profitability
2025 revenues increased 0.9% to $11.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $3.0 billion, reflecting stable full-year performance following the spin-off.
Strong Cash Generation and Conversion
Generated approximately $1.5 billion in cash flow in 2025 with a 49% cash conversion rate (near historical ~50%), supporting reinvestment and shareholder returns.
Healthy Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Net leverage ratio of 1.1x at year-end, net debt approximately $3.3 billion, nearly $6.0 billion of available liquidity and $5.3 billion in senior notes, providing financial flexibility.
Building Materials Segment Momentum
Q4 Building Materials revenues were ~$2.2 billion, up 3.9% year-over-year. Cement volumes +3.6% and aggregates volumes +3.0%. Building Materials adjusted EBITDA rose 4.9% to $705 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 60 basis points to 32.6%.
Aggregates Pricing Strength
Aggregates pricing on a freight-adjusted constant currency basis increased 3.8% in the quarter and 7.3% including freight, driven by local market fundamentals and infrastructure demand.
ASPIRE Synergy Program Progress
Onboarded over 450 logistics/service providers, launched 400+ projects, began realizing savings in Q4, and targeting 70 basis points of margin expansion in 2026 with $250 million of synergies by 2028.
Growth CapEx and Capacity Expansions
Increased investments to $788 million in 2025 (CapEx up ~23% year-over-year) and plan to raise 2026 investments to $900 million to expand production and debottleneck plants (e.g., Missouri flagship +660k tons to 5.5M tons).
Strategic M&A — PB Materials Acquisition
Agreement to acquire PB Materials (West Texas aggregates leader) adding ~$180 million in annual revenue, 26 operational sites, ~50 years of aggregates reserves; acquisition expected to close Q1 2026 and to be EPS- and cash-accretive in 2026.
Shareholder Return Program
Board approved a $1 billion share repurchase program and proposed a $0.44 per-share special one-time dividend plus an annual ordinary dividend of $0.44 per share (subject to shareholder approval), funded from legal capital reserves and not subject to Swiss withholding tax.
Positive 2026 Guidance
Management set 2026 guidance of 4%–6% revenue growth and 8%–11% adjusted EBITDA growth (guidance includes PB Materials), driven by accelerating commercial and infrastructure demand, pricing, ASPIRE savings and capacity additions.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue Slight Decline
Total company revenues were slightly lower in Q4, down 0.4% year-over-year, reflecting near-term softness in some end markets.
Building Envelope Weakness — Residential Pressure
Building Envelope Q4 revenues declined 11.8% to $678 million, driven by softer residential roofing volumes; management expects residential new-construction volumes to be flat in 2026 with recovery later in the year.
Warranty and Margin Impact in Residential Roofing
Building Envelope adjusted EBITDA declined year-over-year, partly due to an $8 million increase in warranty provisions related to residential roofing claims, weighing on segment profitability.
Short-Term Pricing Headwind in Q4
Net pricing for the quarter was down 0.8% (despite full-year pricing up ~30 basis points on a constant-currency basis), indicating some near-term pricing pressure that management expects to address in 2026.
Seasonal/Operational Headwinds in Q1
Management noted Q1 is typically seasonally slower for Building Materials due to annual maintenance and inventory build, which could dampen near-term comparisons.
Higher Growth CapEx Temporarily Reduces Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow in 2025 was lower (management cited lower net income and increased organic growth CapEx) as the company ramps investment; higher CapEx (planned $900M in 2026) may constrain near-term free cash flow even as it supports growth.
Company Guidance
Amrize’s 2026 guidance targets 4–6% revenue growth and 8–11% adjusted EBITDA growth (includes the PB Materials acquisition, ~$180M revenue, closing Q1 2026), supported by higher investment (CapEx planned at $900M in 2026 vs. $788M in 2025) and the ASPIRE program (targeting 70 basis points of margin expansion in 2026 and $250M of synergies by 2028); they expect cement pricing to rise low single-digits and aggregates pricing mid single-digits (freight‑adjusted) with positive volume growth for both (cement +3.6% and aggregates +3.0% in Q4 ’25), Building Materials Q4 revenue ~$2.2B and adjusted EBITDA $705M (margin 32.6%, +60 bps), Building Envelope Q4 revenue $678M (−11.8%) with residential volumes guided flat in 2026 and commercial roofing low-single-digit volume growth, and financials underpinned by strong cash generation (2025 adjusted EBITDA $3.0B, free cash flow ≈$1.5B, cash conversion ~49%), a net leverage ratio of 1.1x (net debt ≈$3.3B), ~ $6B available liquidity, an expected effective tax rate of 21–23%, corporate costs ≈$200M, plus a $1B share repurchase program and proposed $0.44 special and $0.44 annual dividends.Amrize Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall fundamentals are solid: strong and repeatable free cash flow ($1.4–$1.6B) and improved balance-sheet risk with materially lower leverage (debt-to-equity down to ~0.45x in 2025). Offsetting factors include the 2025 revenue decline (-8.5%) and cooler profitability/returns (net margin down to 10.0% and ROE down to 8.9%), plus somewhat weaker cash conversion versus prior year.Income Statement
Revenue has been broadly flat over the last three annual periods and declined in 2025 (-8.5%), but profitability remains solid for the industry. Gross margin stayed in the mid‑20% range (about 23%–26%), while net margin stepped down from 12.1% (2024) to 10.0% (2025). Operating profitability also cooled (EBIT margin ~18.1% to ~16.1%), indicating some cost or pricing pressure, but the company still generates healthy earnings on a sizable revenue base.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage improved meaningfully: debt-to-equity moved from ~1.05x (2022) and ~1.03x (2023) down to ~0.58x (2024) and ~0.45x (2025), reflecting a stronger equity position and lower balance-sheet risk. Total debt is stable-to-down versus 2023, and equity increased sharply in 2025. Return on equity, however, has trended lower (14.3% in 2024 to 8.9% in 2025), suggesting reduced profitability or efficiency despite a stronger capital base.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is consistently strong: operating cash flow has been steady around $2.0–$2.3B annually, and free cash flow remains robust ($1.4–$1.6B). Free cash flow growth re-accelerated in 2025 (+28.2%) after a dip in 2023, supporting financial flexibility. A watch item is cash conversion versus earnings: operating cash flow is below EBITDA (coverage ~0.77 in 2025 vs ~0.94 in 2024), and free cash flow is ~64% of net income in 2025 (down from ~72% in 2024), implying somewhat weaker working-capital or cash-conversion dynamics year over year.78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 11.81B | 11.70B | 11.68B | 10.73B |
| Gross Profit | 3.03B | 3.07B | 2.77B | 2.47B |
| EBITDA | 2.82B | 3.01B | 2.70B | 2.50B |
| Net Income | 1.19B | 1.42B | 956.00M | 1.11B |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 24.25B | 23.52B | 23.05B | 20.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.92B | 1.82B | 1.11B | 351.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.91B | 5.79B | 9.52B | 8.66B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.99B | 10.21B | 13.84B | 12.46B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.25B | 13.31B | 9.20B | 8.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.42B | 1.64B | 1.41B | 1.50B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.21B | 2.28B | 2.04B | 1.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -361.00M | -1.21B | -2.02B | -2.52B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.55B | -537.00M | 734.00M | 497.00M |
Amrize Ltd Risk Analysis
Amrize Ltd disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Amrize Ltd reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Amrize Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $35.52B | 34.81 | 12.79% | 0.67% | 6.54% | 32.48% | |
73 Outperform | $32.71B | 25.27 | 10.79% | ― | ― | ― | |
72 Outperform | $36.64B | 33.02 | 11.90% | 0.51% | 1.99% | -41.08% | |
69 Neutral | $16.34B | 1.73 | 10.45% | 0.74% | -6.34% | 210.97% | |
69 Neutral | $1.91B | 14.72 | 22.02% | 1.12% | 15.70% | 19.92% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $12.16B | 43.75 | 2.78% | ― | -1.59% | -15.58% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AMRZ
Amrize Ltd
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.