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Allurion Technologies (ALUR)
NYSE:ALUR
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Allurion Technologies
(NYSE:ALUR)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(1.35%Upside)
Positive Factors
Market Expansion
The Allurion Balloon has been cleared to resume sales in France, which historically accounted for ~15% of sales, potentially providing a meaningful tailwind to ALUR's growth trajectory.
Product Efficacy
The study succeeded in the responder rate co-primary endpoint, with 58% of Allurion balloon patients losing more than 5% of their total body weight, a statistically significant result.
Regulatory Approval
The Audacity findings are considered sufficiently strong to support US approval, with an anticipated approval following a one-year regulatory review.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Sales of $5.6MM were below the estimate of $6.5MM, indicating underperformance.
Revenue Decline
There was a 32% year-over-year decline in 4Q'24 revenue, primarily due to a temporary suspension of sales in France and macroeconomic headwinds affecting re-order rates.
Valuation
The price target for Allurion Technologies, Inc. has been significantly lowered to $6 from the previous $16, reflecting a recent contraction in small-cap valuations.
Allurion Technologies (ALUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.72M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)158.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.94
Revenue Growth-41.98%
EPS Growth88.34%
CountryUS
Employees134
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength44
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.46
Shares Outstanding7,457,758
10 Day Avg. Volume334,115
30 Day Avg. Volume158,806
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.03
Price to Book (P/B)-0.22
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-0.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.53
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.25
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.33Price Target Upside350.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
Allurion Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAllurion Technologies (ALUR) is a pioneering company in the healthcare sector, focusing on innovative weight loss solutions. The company's flagship product, the Allurion Balloon, is a non-invasive, swallowable gastric balloon designed to help individuals lose weight without surgery. This product is complemented by a comprehensive digital platform that tracks patient progress and provides support through a connected app and personalized coaching.
How the Company Makes MoneyAllurion Technologies generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Allurion Balloon and related services. The company partners with healthcare providers and clinics to distribute its product to patients seeking weight loss solutions. Revenue is driven by the sale of the balloon itself, as well as ancillary services such as digital monitoring and coaching, which are part of the company's holistic weight loss program. Strategic partnerships with medical professionals and clinics are critical to Allurion's business model, as they facilitate access to a broader patient base and enhance the credibility and reach of its weight management solutions.
Allurion Technologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 25.42%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a company in transition with significant strides toward efficiency and profitability, highlighted by improved gross margins, a successful new sales model, and strategic FDA engagement. However, these positive developments are tempered by a decline in revenue due to the temporary suspension of sales in France and ongoing operating losses.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Reduction in Operating Expenses
Adjusted operating expenses were reduced by 45% compared to the prior year, reflecting increased efficiency and progress toward profitability.
Expansion of Gross Margin
Gross margin expanded to 75% compared to 73% in the prior year and 45% in the previous quarter, driven by increased manufacturing efficiencies.
Successful B2B2C Model Implementation
The B2B2C sales model demonstrated over 40% growth quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in clinics in Europe.
FDA Engagement and Approval Path
Completed pre-PMA meeting with FDA and expect to complete PMA submission by the end of June, with positive feedback on additional analyses.
Progress in France
Reengagement and re-training of clinics in France, with plans to resume commercialization in the second half of the year.
Strong Cash Position
Ended the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $20 million, providing a runway for achieving FDA approval and profitability.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $5.6 million compared to $9.4 million for the same period in 2024, primarily due to the temporary suspension of sales in France.
Continued Operating Loss
Loss from operations for the first quarter was $7.3 million compared to $11.4 million for the same period in 2024, indicating ongoing financial challenges despite improvements.
Company Guidance
During Allurion Technologies' first quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, the company provided a comprehensive update on its financial performance and strategic initiatives. Revenue for the quarter was reported at $5.6 million, with adjusted operating expenses of $10.1 million, reflecting a 45% decrease compared to the previous year. The adjusted net operating loss was $5.9 million, narrowing by 48% year-over-year, while the gross margin expanded to 75%, up from 73% the previous year and 45% in the prior quarter. The company outlined its five-pillar plan for 2025, which includes a new commercial strategy focusing on key geographies, gaining FDA approval for the Allurion Balloon, achieving profitability for the ex-U.S. business, scaling its AI product platform, and resuming commercialization in France. Allurion also highlighted its efforts to integrate GLP-1 therapies with its products, citing studies demonstrating significant weight loss and improved health metrics. The company maintains its revenue guidance of approximately $3 million, with a 50% reduction in operating expenses compared to 2024, and ended the quarter with $20 million in cash and cash equivalents.Allurion Technologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Allurion Technologies is facing significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, persistent losses, high leverage, and negative cash flows. The company's financial health is precarious with risks of insolvency.Income Statement
Allurion Technologies has experienced significant revenue fluctuations, with a notable decline from 2022 to 2023. The company faces negative profit margins, including a negative gross profit margin in 2024, and sustained losses in net income, EBIT, and EBITDA, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a concerning financial structure, with negative stockholders' equity and high leverage as indicated by a high debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting a risk of insolvency, compounded by the decline in assets and insufficient equity to cover liabilities.25
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows persistently negative operating and free cash flows, signaling liquidity issues. The company has relied heavily on financing activities to fund operations, which is unsustainable in the long term without improved financial performance.30
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 32.11M | 53.47M | 64.21M | 38.24M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 21.50M | 41.50M | 50.73M | 29.19M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -22.17M | -69.03M | -32.28M | -8.01M | -5.17K |
| Net Income | -26.15M | -80.61M | -37.74M | -12.39M | -5.17K |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 32.81M | 71.71M | 51.37M | 39.35M | 329.96K |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.38M | 38.04M | 7.68M | 25.84M | 47.09K |
| Total Debt | 37.92M | 41.86M | 59.53M | 26.14M | 170.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 110.79M | 142.20M | 122.81M | 73.64M | 310.13K |
| Stockholders Equity | -77.98M | -70.49M | -71.44M | -34.28M | 19.83K |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -42.91M | -65.59M | -48.53M | -15.24M | ― |
| Operating Cash Flow | -42.30M | -63.98M | -46.98M | -14.33M | ― |
| Investing Cash Flow | -611.00K | -1.61M | -1.55M | -912.00K | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | 20.21M | 95.99M | 30.54M | 28.95M | 47.13K |
Allurion Technologies Technical Analysis
Positive
2.96
Price Trends
2.67
Positive
2.68
Positive
6.76
Negative
Market Momentum
0.11
Negative
59.58
Neutral
80.37
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.63, above the 50-day MA of 2.67, and below the 200-day MA of 6.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.37 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALUR.
Allurion Technologies Risk Analysis
Allurion Technologies disclosed 83 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allurion Technologies reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Allurion Technologies Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
54 Neutral | $9.94M | 0.85 | -499.57% | ― | -33.92% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $7.47B | -0.04 | -63.86% | 2.34% | 16.17% | 0.25% | |
48 Neutral | $23.72M | ― | 38.80% | ― | -41.98% | 88.34% | |
45 Neutral | $21.56M | ― | -329.16% | ― | 2115.38% | -4.40% | |
43 Neutral | $11.33M | ― | -93.11% | ― | 85.24% | -27.93% | |
35 Underperform | $34.33M | ― | -196.69% | ― | ― | ― | |
23 Underperform | $4.90M | ― | -439.23% | ― | ― | 56.73% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ALUR
Allurion Technologies
2.97
-18.41
-86.11%
LFWD
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0.74
-3.06
-80.53%
PAVM
PAVmed
0.60
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ADGM
Adagio Medical Holdings
1.50
-10.05
-87.01%
MOVE
Movano
0.62
-5.66
-90.13%
IINN
Inspira Technologies Oxy BHN
1.47
0.26
21.49%
Allurion Technologies Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Allurion Technologies Enhances Financial Agreements and Governance
Positive
Jan 8, 2025
Allurion Technologies announced an Omnibus Amendment to its existing financial agreements, which includes maintaining certain cash balances and revenue requirements. It also entails securing marketing authorizations in France and the U.S. for its products. The amendment allows investors to receive common stock or preferred shares, and it grants the right for investor representatives to join the board of directors, indicating a strategic move to strengthen financial and operational stability.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.