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Allurion Technologies (ALUR)
NYSE:ALUR
US Market

Allurion Technologies (ALUR) AI Stock Analysis

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Allurion Technologies

(NYSE:ALUR)

Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(4.90%Upside)
Allurion Technologies' stock score reflects significant financial challenges, characterized by high leverage and negative cash flows. Despite positive strategic initiatives and improved operational efficiency, these factors are not yet sufficient to offset the financial difficulties. The technical indicators offer some support, but valuation remains unattractive with a negative P/E ratio.
Positive Factors
Market Expansion
The Allurion Balloon has been cleared to resume sales in France, which historically accounted for ~15% of sales, potentially providing a meaningful tailwind to ALUR's growth trajectory.
Product Efficacy
The study succeeded in the responder rate co-primary endpoint, with 58% of Allurion balloon patients losing more than 5% of their total body weight, a statistically significant result.
Regulatory Approval
The Audacity findings are considered sufficiently strong to support US approval, with an anticipated approval following a one-year regulatory review.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Sales of $5.6MM were below the estimate of $6.5MM, indicating underperformance.
Revenue Decline
There was a 32% year-over-year decline in 4Q'24 revenue, primarily due to a temporary suspension of sales in France and macroeconomic headwinds affecting re-order rates.
Valuation
The price target for Allurion Technologies, Inc. has been significantly lowered to $6 from the previous $16, reflecting a recent contraction in small-cap valuations.

Allurion Technologies (ALUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Allurion Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAllurion Technologies (ALUR) is a pioneering company in the healthcare sector, focusing on innovative weight loss solutions. The company's flagship product, the Allurion Balloon, is a non-invasive, swallowable gastric balloon designed to help individuals lose weight without surgery. This product is complemented by a comprehensive digital platform that tracks patient progress and provides support through a connected app and personalized coaching.
How the Company Makes MoneyAllurion Technologies generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Allurion Balloon and related services. The company partners with healthcare providers and clinics to distribute its product to patients seeking weight loss solutions. Revenue is driven by the sale of the balloon itself, as well as ancillary services such as digital monitoring and coaching, which are part of the company's holistic weight loss program. Strategic partnerships with medical professionals and clinics are critical to Allurion's business model, as they facilitate access to a broader patient base and enhance the credibility and reach of its weight management solutions.

Allurion Technologies Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 21.19%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a company in transition with significant strides toward efficiency and profitability, highlighted by improved gross margins, a successful new sales model, and strategic FDA engagement. However, these positive developments are tempered by a decline in revenue due to the temporary suspension of sales in France and ongoing operating losses.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Reduction in Operating Expenses
Adjusted operating expenses were reduced by 45% compared to the prior year, reflecting increased efficiency and progress toward profitability.
Expansion of Gross Margin
Gross margin expanded to 75% compared to 73% in the prior year and 45% in the previous quarter, driven by increased manufacturing efficiencies.
Successful B2B2C Model Implementation
The B2B2C sales model demonstrated over 40% growth quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in clinics in Europe.
FDA Engagement and Approval Path
Completed pre-PMA meeting with FDA and expect to complete PMA submission by the end of June, with positive feedback on additional analyses.
Progress in France
Reengagement and re-training of clinics in France, with plans to resume commercialization in the second half of the year.
Strong Cash Position
Ended the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $20 million, providing a runway for achieving FDA approval and profitability.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $5.6 million compared to $9.4 million for the same period in 2024, primarily due to the temporary suspension of sales in France.
Continued Operating Loss
Loss from operations for the first quarter was $7.3 million compared to $11.4 million for the same period in 2024, indicating ongoing financial challenges despite improvements.
Company Guidance
During Allurion Technologies' first quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, the company provided a comprehensive update on its financial performance and strategic initiatives. Revenue for the quarter was reported at $5.6 million, with adjusted operating expenses of $10.1 million, reflecting a 45% decrease compared to the previous year. The adjusted net operating loss was $5.9 million, narrowing by 48% year-over-year, while the gross margin expanded to 75%, up from 73% the previous year and 45% in the prior quarter. The company outlined its five-pillar plan for 2025, which includes a new commercial strategy focusing on key geographies, gaining FDA approval for the Allurion Balloon, achieving profitability for the ex-U.S. business, scaling its AI product platform, and resuming commercialization in France. Allurion also highlighted its efforts to integrate GLP-1 therapies with its products, citing studies demonstrating significant weight loss and improved health metrics. The company maintains its revenue guidance of approximately $3 million, with a 50% reduction in operating expenses compared to 2024, and ended the quarter with $20 million in cash and cash equivalents.

Allurion Technologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Allurion Technologies faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenue, persistent losses, high leverage, and negative cash flows. The company's financial structure is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity and liquidity issues, indicating a need for strategic changes to stabilize and improve financial health.
Income Statement
35
Negative
Allurion Technologies has experienced significant revenue fluctuations, with a notable decline from 2022 to 2023. The company faces negative profit margins, including a negative gross profit margin in 2024, and sustained losses in net income, EBIT, and EBITDA, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.
Balance Sheet
25
Negative
The balance sheet reveals a concerning financial structure, with negative stockholders' equity and high leverage as indicated by a high debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting a risk of insolvency, compounded by the decline in assets and insufficient equity to cover liabilities.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows persistently negative operating and free cash flows, signaling liquidity issues. The company has relied heavily on financing activities to fund operations, which is unsustainable in the long term without improved financial performance.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue28.30M32.11M53.47M64.21M38.24M0.00
Gross Profit18.80M21.50M41.50M50.73M29.19M0.00
EBITDA-22.45M-22.17M-69.03M-32.28M-8.01M-5.17K
Net Income-24.36M-26.15M-80.61M-37.74M-12.39M-5.17K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets38.41M32.81M71.71M51.37M39.35M329.96K
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments20.41M15.38M38.04M7.68M25.84M47.09K
Total Debt32.98M37.92M41.86M59.53M26.14M170.00K
Total Liabilities108.20M110.79M142.20M122.81M73.64M310.13K
Stockholders Equity-69.79M-77.98M-70.49M-71.44M-34.28M19.83K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-43.64M-42.91M-65.59M-48.53M-15.24M
Operating Cash Flow-43.13M-42.30M-63.98M-46.98M-14.33M
Investing Cash Flow-507.00K-611.00K-1.61M-1.55M-912.00K0.00
Financing Cash Flow34.32M20.21M95.99M30.54M28.95M47.13K

Allurion Technologies Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.86
Price Trends
50DMA
2.60
Positive
100DMA
2.75
Positive
200DMA
7.08
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Negative
RSI
67.63
Neutral
STOCH
80.58
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.53, above the 50-day MA of 2.60, and below the 200-day MA of 7.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALUR.

Allurion Technologies Risk Analysis

Allurion Technologies disclosed 83 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allurion Technologies reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Allurion Technologies Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
54
Neutral
$9.59M0.85-499.57%-33.92%
52
Neutral
$7.53B0.20-61.87%2.28%16.72%1.10%
51
Neutral
$26.76M-329.16%2115.38%-4.40%
48
Neutral
$21.33M38.80%-41.98%88.34%
43
Neutral
$12.01M-93.11%85.24%-27.93%
35
Underperform
$38.17M-196.69%
23
Underperform
$5.24M-439.23%56.73%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ALUR
Allurion Technologies
2.99
-23.01
-88.50%
LFWD
Lifeward
0.75
-3.17
-80.87%
PAVM
PAVmed
0.60
-0.25
-29.41%
ADGM
Adagio Medical Holdings
1.75
-9.77
-84.81%
MOVE
Movano
0.77
-4.27
-84.72%
IINN
Inspira Technologies Oxy BHN
1.37
0.12
9.60%

Allurion Technologies Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Allurion Technologies Enhances Financial Agreements and Governance
Positive
Jan 8, 2025

Allurion Technologies announced an Omnibus Amendment to its existing financial agreements, which includes maintaining certain cash balances and revenue requirements. It also entails securing marketing authorizations in France and the U.S. for its products. The amendment allows investors to receive common stock or preferred shares, and it grants the right for investor representatives to join the board of directors, indicating a strategic move to strengthen financial and operational stability.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 10, 2025