Allurion Technologies (ALUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.66M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 160.51K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.96
• Revenue Growth: -41.98%
• EPS Growth: 88.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 134
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 38
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): 1.46
• Shares Outstanding: 7,457,758
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 58,764
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 160,507
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.54
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.70
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.42
• 1Y Price Target: $13.33
• Price Target Upside: 381.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.50 ▼(-9.75% Downside)

The overall score is heavily influenced by Allurion's challenging financial position, including high leverage and negative cash flows. While the earnings call shows some operational improvements, these are not yet sufficient to offset financial weaknesses. Technical analysis and valuation scores reflect ongoing uncertainties about future profitability.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trial Success

The study succeeded in the responder rate co-primary endpoint, with 58% of Allurion balloon patients losing more than 5% of their total body weight, a statistically significant result.

Market Expansion

The Allurion Balloon has been cleared to resume sales in France, which historically accounted for ~15% of sales, potentially providing a meaningful tailwind to ALUR's growth trajectory.

Operational Efficiency

Operating expenses decreased significantly, with an overall reduction of 39% from the previous year, contributing to a lower operating loss.

Negative Factors

Market Challenges

The re-commercialization of accounts in the French market is expected to be a slow process and won't provide significant revenue until 2026.

Price Target Reduction

The price target for Allurion Technologies, Inc. has been significantly lowered to $6 from the previous $16, reflecting a recent contraction in small-cap valuations.

Revenue Decline

There was a 32% year-over-year decline in revenue, primarily due to a temporary suspension of sales in France and macroeconomic headwinds affecting re-order rates.

Allurion Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Allurion Technologies Inc. focuses on ending obesity with a weight loss platform to treat people who are overweight. Its platform, the Allurion Program, features swallowable and procedure-less intragastric balloon for weight loss (the Allurion Balloon) and offers access to AI-powered remote patient monitoring tools, a proprietary behavior change program, secure messaging, and video telehealth that are delivered by the Allurion Virtual Care Suite. The company is headquartered in Natick, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Allurion Technologies generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Allurion Balloon and related services. The company partners with healthcare providers and clinics to distribute its product to patients seeking weight loss solutions. Revenue is driven by the sale of the balloon itself, as well as ancillary services such as digital monitoring and coaching, which are part of the company's holistic weight loss program. Strategic partnerships with medical professionals and clinics are critical to Allurion's business model, as they facilitate access to a broader patient base and enhance the credibility and reach of its weight management solutions.

Allurion Technologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Allurion Technologies is facing significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, persistent losses, high leverage, and negative cash flows. The company's financial health is precarious with risks of insolvency.

Income Statement

Allurion Technologies has experienced significant revenue fluctuations, with a notable decline from 2022 to 2023. The company faces negative profit margins, including a negative gross profit margin in 2024, and sustained losses in net income, EBIT, and EBITDA, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a concerning financial structure, with negative stockholders' equity and high leverage as indicated by a high debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting a risk of insolvency, compounded by the decline in assets and insufficient equity to cover liabilities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows persistently negative operating and free cash flows, signaling liquidity issues. The company has relied heavily on financing activities to fund operations, which is unsustainable in the long term without improved financial performance.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	32.11M	53.47M	64.21M	38.24M	0.00
Gross Profit	21.50M	41.50M	50.73M	29.19M	0.00
EBITDA	-22.17M	-69.03M	-32.28M	-8.01M	-5.17K
Net Income	-26.15M	-80.61M	-37.74M	-12.39M	-5.17K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	32.81M	71.71M	51.37M	39.35M	329.96K
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	15.38M	38.04M	7.68M	25.84M	47.09K
Total Debt	37.92M	41.86M	59.53M	26.14M	170.00K
Total Liabilities	110.79M	142.20M	122.81M	73.64M	310.13K
Stockholders Equity	-77.98M	-70.49M	-71.44M	-34.28M	19.83K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-42.91M	-65.59M	-48.53M	-15.24M	―
Operating Cash Flow	-42.30M	-63.98M	-46.98M	-14.33M	―
Investing Cash Flow	-611.00K	-1.61M	-1.55M	-912.00K	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	20.21M	95.99M	30.54M	28.95M	47.13K

Allurion Technologies Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.77
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.95, above the 50-day MA of 2.73, and below the 200-day MA of 5.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.19 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALUR.

Allurion Technologies Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.39B	0.42	-62.86%	2.37%	15.61%	-1.95%
ALUR	46 Neutral	$20.66M	―	38.80%	―	-41.98%	88.34%
PAVM	46 Neutral	$8.47M	0.69	-499.57%	―	-33.92%	―
LFWD	43 Neutral	$11.00M	―	-93.11%	―	85.24%	-27.93%
ADGM	43 Neutral	$20.00M	―	-329.16%	―	2115.38%	-4.40%
IINN	35 Underperform	$32.79M	―	-196.69%	―	―	―
MOVE	23 Underperform	$4.42M	―	-439.23%	―	―	56.73%

Allurion Technologies Corporate Events

Allurion Technologies Enhances Financial Agreements and Governance

Allurion Technologies announced an Omnibus Amendment to its existing financial agreements, which includes maintaining certain cash balances and revenue requirements. It also entails securing marketing authorizations in France and the U.S. for its products. The amendment allows investors to receive common stock or preferred shares, and it grants the right for investor representatives to join the board of directors, indicating a strategic move to strengthen financial and operational stability.