Allurion Technologies (ALUR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $21.33M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 167.26K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.96
• Revenue Growth: -41.98%
• EPS Growth: 88.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 134
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 39
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): 1.46
• Shares Outstanding: 7,457,758
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 219,959
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 167,261
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.33M
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -755.46M
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.24K
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 185.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.41K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -292.01
• 1Y Price Target: $10.63
• Price Target Upside: 271.68% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▲(4.90%Upside)

Allurion Technologies' stock score reflects significant financial challenges, characterized by high leverage and negative cash flows. Despite positive strategic initiatives and improved operational efficiency, these factors are not yet sufficient to offset the financial difficulties. The technical indicators offer some support, but valuation remains unattractive with a negative P/E ratio.

Positive Factors

Market Expansion

The Allurion Balloon has been cleared to resume sales in France, which historically accounted for ~15% of sales, potentially providing a meaningful tailwind to ALUR's growth trajectory.

Product Efficacy

The study succeeded in the responder rate co-primary endpoint, with 58% of Allurion balloon patients losing more than 5% of their total body weight, a statistically significant result.

Regulatory Approval

The Audacity findings are considered sufficiently strong to support US approval, with an anticipated approval following a one-year regulatory review.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Sales of $5.6MM were below the estimate of $6.5MM, indicating underperformance.

Revenue Decline

There was a 32% year-over-year decline in 4Q'24 revenue, primarily due to a temporary suspension of sales in France and macroeconomic headwinds affecting re-order rates.

Valuation

The price target for Allurion Technologies, Inc. has been significantly lowered to $6 from the previous $16, reflecting a recent contraction in small-cap valuations.

Allurion Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Allurion Technologies (ALUR) is a pioneering company in the healthcare sector, focusing on innovative weight loss solutions. The company's flagship product, the Allurion Balloon, is a non-invasive, swallowable gastric balloon designed to help individuals lose weight without surgery. This product is complemented by a comprehensive digital platform that tracks patient progress and provides support through a connected app and personalized coaching.

How the Company Makes Money

Allurion Technologies generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Allurion Balloon and related services. The company partners with healthcare providers and clinics to distribute its product to patients seeking weight loss solutions. Revenue is driven by the sale of the balloon itself, as well as ancillary services such as digital monitoring and coaching, which are part of the company's holistic weight loss program. Strategic partnerships with medical professionals and clinics are critical to Allurion's business model, as they facilitate access to a broader patient base and enhance the credibility and reach of its weight management solutions.

Allurion Technologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Allurion Technologies faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenue, persistent losses, high leverage, and negative cash flows. The company's financial structure is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity and liquidity issues, indicating a need for strategic changes to stabilize and improve financial health.

Income Statement

Allurion Technologies has experienced significant revenue fluctuations, with a notable decline from 2022 to 2023. The company faces negative profit margins, including a negative gross profit margin in 2024, and sustained losses in net income, EBIT, and EBITDA, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a concerning financial structure, with negative stockholders' equity and high leverage as indicated by a high debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting a risk of insolvency, compounded by the decline in assets and insufficient equity to cover liabilities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows persistently negative operating and free cash flows, signaling liquidity issues. The company has relied heavily on financing activities to fund operations, which is unsustainable in the long term without improved financial performance.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.30M	32.11M	53.47M	64.21M	38.24M	0.00
Gross Profit	18.80M	21.50M	41.50M	50.73M	29.19M	0.00
EBITDA	-22.45M	-22.17M	-69.03M	-32.28M	-8.01M	-5.17K
Net Income	-24.36M	-26.15M	-80.61M	-37.74M	-12.39M	-5.17K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.41M	32.81M	71.71M	51.37M	39.35M	329.96K
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	20.41M	15.38M	38.04M	7.68M	25.84M	47.09K
Total Debt	32.98M	37.92M	41.86M	59.53M	26.14M	170.00K
Total Liabilities	108.20M	110.79M	142.20M	122.81M	73.64M	310.13K
Stockholders Equity	-69.79M	-77.98M	-70.49M	-71.44M	-34.28M	19.83K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-43.64M	-42.91M	-65.59M	-48.53M	-15.24M	―
Operating Cash Flow	-43.13M	-42.30M	-63.98M	-46.98M	-14.33M	―
Investing Cash Flow	-507.00K	-611.00K	-1.61M	-1.55M	-912.00K	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	34.32M	20.21M	95.99M	30.54M	28.95M	47.13K

Allurion Technologies Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.86
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.53, above the 50-day MA of 2.60, and below the 200-day MA of 7.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALUR.

Allurion Technologies Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAVM	54 Neutral	$9.59M	0.85	-499.57%	―	-33.92%	―
Sector *	52 Neutral	$7.53B	0.20	-61.87%	2.28%	16.72%	1.10%
ADGM	51 Neutral	$26.76M	―	-329.16%	―	2115.38%	-4.40%
ALUR	48 Neutral	$21.33M	―	38.80%	―	-41.98%	88.34%
LFWD	43 Neutral	$12.01M	―	-93.11%	―	85.24%	-27.93%
IINN	35 Underperform	$38.17M	―	-196.69%	―	―	―
MOVE	23 Underperform	$5.24M	―	-439.23%	―	―	56.73%

Allurion Technologies Corporate Events

Allurion Technologies Enhances Financial Agreements and Governance

Allurion Technologies announced an Omnibus Amendment to its existing financial agreements, which includes maintaining certain cash balances and revenue requirements. It also entails securing marketing authorizations in France and the U.S. for its products. The amendment allows investors to receive common stock or preferred shares, and it grants the right for investor representatives to join the board of directors, indicating a strategic move to strengthen financial and operational stability.