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Allstate
(NYSE:ALL)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$280.00
â–²(29.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/28/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability and cash generation with reasonable leverage) and a very attractive valuation (low P/E). The earnings call reinforces operating strength and capital returns, though reserve-development concentration is a sustainability risk. Technical indicators are mixed and slightly soft in the near term, modestly limiting the overall score.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Allstate's free cash flow tracking roughly 98% of net income indicates high earnings quality and persistent operating cash conversion. Durable cash generation supports ongoing capital returns, reinvestment in distribution/technology and reserve funding, giving financial flexibility across insurance cycles.
Negative Factors
Concentrated reserve releases
Material favorable prior-year development concentrated in a short period can mask underlying loss trends and inflate recent combined ratios. If reserve development normalizes or reverses, underwriting metrics and capital plans may worsen, making near-term performance less predictive of sustainable margins.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Allstate's free cash flow tracking roughly 98% of net income indicates high earnings quality and persistent operating cash conversion. Durable cash generation supports ongoing capital returns, reinvestment in distribution/technology and reserve funding, giving financial flexibility across insurance cycles.
Read all positive factors
Allstate Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Policies In Force
Indicates the total number of active insurance policies, reflecting customer base size and market penetration. A growing number suggests effective sales strategies and customer retention.
Indicates the total number of active insurance policies, reflecting customer base size and market penetration. A growing number suggests effective sales strategies and customer retention.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAllstate (ALL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$64.44B
Dividend Yield1.91%
Average Volume (3M)1.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.5
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth4.40%
EPS Growth209.62%
CountryUS
Employees55,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)45.90
Shares Outstanding257,420,930
10 Day Avg. Volume1,761,454
30 Day Avg. Volume1,692,592
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.82
P/FCF Ratio5.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$235.17Price Target Upside8.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)30.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$61.47B
Allstate Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Allstate Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, provides a comprehensive suite of property, casualty, and other insurance offerings throughout the United States and Canada. The company's operations are structured across four primary ...
How the Company Makes Money
Allstate makes money primarily by underwriting insurance and investing the premiums it collects. (1) Underwriting (insurance operations): Customers pay premiums for coverage (e.g., auto, homeowners and other personal property-liability coverages)....
Allstate Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong quarter: revenue growth, nearly 10% higher investment income, materially improved underwriting performance (P-L combined ratio of 82%, underlying 80.3%), robust underwriting income ($2.7B), healthy policy growth and sizeable capital returns including an accelerated $4B repurchase program. Management also highlighted strategic wins — market share gains across many states, successful integration/expansion of protection services (SquareTrade), and growing investment portfolio book value. Counterbalancing items include concentrated favorable prior-year reserve development (2023–24), a higher homeowners expense ratio from cost reallocation, some segment-level profitability pressures (Protection Plans, Arity restructuring), and execution/uncertainty risks around AI rollout, equity allocation and macro exposures. On balance, the positive operating and capital-generation signals substantially outweigh the challenges, though they warrant continued monitoring.Positive Updates
Revenue and Investment Income Growth
Total revenues increased to $16.9 billion, up 3% year-over-year. Net investment income rose nearly 10% to $938 million (a $84 million increase versus prior year).
Negative Updates
Concentration of Favorable Prior-Year Reserve Development
Large favorable prior-year reserve releases were concentrated in 2023 and 2024 (analyst referenced ~$840 million net favorable PYD in auto), which improved reported combined ratios but introduces reserve-development volatility and uncertainty for trend interpretation.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Investment Income Growth
Total revenues increased to $16.9 billion, up 3% year-over-year. Net investment income rose nearly 10% to $938 million (a $84 million increase versus prior year).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized continued disciplined, data‑driven growth while sustaining attractive returns, anchored by Q1 results (total revenues $16.9B, +3%; investment income +9.8% to $938M; net income $2.4B; adjusted net income $2.8B or $10.65/share; P‑L underwriting income $2.7B). They reiterated targets to keep auto around mid‑90s and homeowners around low‑90s combined ratios while growing policies (total PIF +2.5%; auto +2.6%; homeowners +2.5%; auto PIF +4.3% in 29 states representing 57% of premiums; homeowners PIF +4.1% in 41 states), noted the Property‑Liability recorded combined ratio 82.0% (underlying 80.3%, a 2.8‑pt YoY improvement) and auto underlying ex‑reserve/cat of 89.5% (1.7 pts better YoY), disclosed ~ $840M net favorable prior‑year auto development (and revised 2023/2024 auto combined ratios to 95.4% and 90.0%), described portfolio strength (portfolio book value +24% [~$17B] since Q1‑24; LTM portfolio return 4.2%; performance portfolio 1‑yr 7.6%, 3‑yr 5.9%), confirmed rate actions in 39 states (net neutral), and outlined capital priorities: $881M returned to shareholders in Q1, completion of a $1.5B repurchase, launch of a $4B program with $3.6B remaining (~40% of holding‑co assets, ~7% of shares), plus continued reinvestment in the business and AI/expense efficiencies to fund growth into 2027–2028.Allstate Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
77
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 67.14B | 66.46B | 63.52B | 56.59B | 50.62B | 48.68B |
| Gross Profit | 26.74B | 22.09B | 14.50B | 7.17B | 5.68B | 12.03B |
| EBITDA | 16.37B | 14.04B | 6.72B | 735.00M | -648.00M | 7.88B |
| Net Income | 12.14B | 10.28B | 4.67B | -188.00M | -1.29B | 1.61B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 123.97B | 119.76B | 111.62B | 103.36B | 97.99B | 99.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.40B | 5.57B | 5.24B | 5.87B | 4.91B | 4.77B |
| Total Debt | 7.49B | 7.49B | 8.09B | 7.94B | 7.96B | 7.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 92.39B | 89.17B | 90.25B | 85.73B | 80.63B | 74.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 31.61B | 30.61B | 21.44B | 17.77B | 17.49B | 25.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.53B | 9.88B | 8.72B | 3.96B | 4.70B | 4.77B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.71B | 10.11B | 8.93B | 4.23B | 5.12B | 5.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.59B | -7.25B | -8.25B | -3.00B | -1.73B | 510.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.46B | -2.88B | -697.00M | -1.24B | -3.42B | -5.24B |
Allstate Technical Analysis
Positive
216.16
Price Trends
219.21
Positive
213.42
Positive
207.47
Positive
Market Momentum
7.69
Negative
75.01
Negative
92.65
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 216.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 227.40, below the 50-day MA of 219.21, and above the 200-day MA of 207.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.01 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.65 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALL.
Allstate Risk Analysis
Allstate disclosed 6 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allstate reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Allstate Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $29.70B | 10.96 | 17.98% | 2.10% | 17.87% | 90.86% | |
83 Outperform | $72.79B | 10.03 | 24.14% | 1.49% | 4.12% | 83.05% | |
81 Outperform | $135.69B | 11.78 | 45.08% | 2.20% | 13.89% | 32.56% | |
80 Outperform | $64.44B | 5.45 | 42.71% | 1.91% | 4.40% | 209.62% | |
77 Outperform | $140.08B | 12.69 | 15.65% | 1.22% | 8.26% | 35.89% | |
77 Outperform | $37.79B | 9.55 | 22.01% | 1.55% | 6.90% | 41.67% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
ALL
Allstate
250.33
56.24
28.97%
CB
Chubb
361.17
80.94
28.89%
CINF
Cincinnati Financial
192.03
46.70
32.13%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
137.85
15.01
12.22%
PGR
Progressive
232.22
-13.48
-5.48%
TRV
Travelers Companies
342.31
82.32
31.66%
Allstate Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Allstate Issues May Catastrophe Loss Transparency Update
Neutral
Jun 18, 2026
In May 2026, Allstate issued its regular monthly update for investors detailing estimated catastrophe losses and policies in force, and made the information available on its investor relations website. By formally furnishing this data, the insurer...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Allstate Shareholders Back Board, Executive Pay at Meeting
Positive
May 27, 2026
Allstate held its annual stockholders meeting on May 22, 2026, where shareholders elected 11 directors to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 meeting, reaffirming the current board’s composition and governance structure. Investors also appro...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Allstate Posts April Catastrophe Loss and Policy Update
Neutral
May 21, 2026
Allstate disclosed that its April 2026 monthly release, which provides estimates of catastrophe losses and policies in force, has been posted on its investor website for stakeholders. The company characterized this update as furnished rather than ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Allstate Issues March Catastrophe Loss and Policy Update
Neutral
Apr 16, 2026
On March 2026, Allstate released its monthly update detailing estimated catastrophe losses and the number of policies in force, with the information made available on its investor website. The disclosure underscores the company’s ongoing pra...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.