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Allstate
(NYSE:ALL)
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Rating:86Outperform
Price Target:
$312.00
â–²(20.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
ALL scores highly due to strong financial performance (rebound in profitability, expanding equity, and very strong free cash flow) supported by a very attractive valuation (low P/E) and a positive earnings-call backdrop (material underwriting improvement and substantial buybacks). The main constraints are normal P&C earnings volatility and some sustainability uncertainty tied to reserve releases and rate/severity dynamics.
Positive Factors
Underwriting Improvement
The improved combined ratio and underwriting income show that pricing, claims effectiveness and expense actions are translating into profitable risk selection. If maintained, this strengthens recurring earnings and reduces dependence on investment returns, although catastrophe exposure remains.
Negative Factors
P&C Earnings Volatility
The swing from losses in 2022–2023 to strong 2024–TTM profits shows that earnings are highly sensitive to claims, catastrophe activity and reserve development. This cyclicality makes current margins less dependable and complicates forecasting through a normal P&C cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Underwriting Improvement
The improved combined ratio and underwriting income show that pricing, claims effectiveness and expense actions are translating into profitable risk selection. If maintained, this strengthens recurring earnings and reduces dependence on investment returns, although catastrophe exposure remains.
Read all positive factors
Allstate Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Policies In Force
Indicates the total number of active insurance policies, reflecting customer base size and market penetration. A growing number suggests effective sales strategies and customer retention.
Indicates the total number of active insurance policies, reflecting customer base size and market penetration. A growing number suggests effective sales strategies and customer retention.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAllstate (ALL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$64.36B
Dividend Yield1.64%
Average Volume (3M)1.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.0
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth5.92%
EPS Growth134.66%
CountryUS
Employees53,150
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)50.70
Shares Outstanding252,857,960
10 Day Avg. Volume1,594,962
30 Day Avg. Volume1,764,786
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.82
P/FCF Ratio5.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$269.72Price Target Upside3.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)34.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$60.92B
Allstate Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Allstate Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, provides a comprehensive suite of property, casualty, and other insurance offerings throughout the United States and Canada. The company's operations are structured across four primary ...
How the Company Makes Money
Allstate makes money primarily by underwriting insurance and investing the premiums it collects. (1) Underwriting (insurance operations): Customers pay premiums for coverage (e.g., auto, homeowners and other personal property-liability coverages)....
Allstate Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a notably positive operating and financial picture: strong revenue and investment income growth, meaningful improvements in underwriting (combined ratios), robust underwriting income and capital generation, accelerating new business and continued investment in a technology-driven strategy (Ally). Headwinds highlighted include a one-point increase in the expense ratio (advertising and legal accruals), flat net rate impact this quarter, ongoing severity/inflation uncertainty, competitive pressure and cybersecurity considerations. Overall, the positives—material earnings, underwriting improvement, investment performance, market share gains and strong capital position—substantially outweigh the identified risks.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenues of $18.6 billion, up 11.8% year-over-year; net premiums written increased 2.6% and total policies in force grew 3.8% to 215.9 million.
Negative Updates
Higher Expense Ratio Driven by Advertising and Legal Items
Expense ratio increased ~1.0 point in the quarter; roughly half of the increase was higher advertising (first-half advertising of $1.1 billion) and the remainder primarily from nonrecurring legal accruals.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenues of $18.6 billion, up 11.8% year-over-year; net premiums written increased 2.6% and total policies in force grew 3.8% to 215.9 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Allstate reiterated a positive outlook and concrete capital-return commitments while highlighting Q2 and trailing metrics: Q2 total revenues $18.6B (+11.8% YoY), net premiums written +2.6%, total policies in force +3.8% to 215.9M, issued applications +9.9%, net investment income +33.8% to ~$1.0B (TTM investment income ~$3.8B, +57% since 2022, contributing roughly $11.5 of adjusted net income per share), GAAP net income $3.2B and adjusted net income $2.3B ($8.99/share; H1 adjusted $5.1B or $19.65/share), 12‑month adjusted net income ROE 44.2%; Property‑Liability combined ratio improved 4.5 pts to 86.6% (underlying 79.4%), auto combined ratio 83.3%, homeowners 94.6%, and underwriting income ~$2.0B (≈+57%); growth metrics included 2.3M auto new‑business items vs. 1.5M three years ago and 411k homeowners new policies (homeowners new business +46.8%), quarter‑to‑quarter auto policy growth 2.8% and homeowners 2.9%; management affirmed it will complete the $4.0B repurchase program (Q2 repurchase $1.0B; $1.3B returned to shareholders this quarter; $2.6B remaining), noted deployable holding‑company capital of ~$9.5B (≈$37/share), YTD advertising $1.1B, an ~80% allocation to interest‑bearing assets, a GAAP‑adjusted investment return of 2.6% for the quarter, and ongoing investments in technology/Agentic AI (Ally) to lower expenses, improve pricing and claims accuracy and drive sustainable growth.Allstate Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 69.19B | 66.46B | 63.52B | 56.59B | 50.62B | 48.68B |
| Gross Profit | 29.17B | 22.09B | 14.50B | 7.17B | 5.68B | 12.03B |
| EBITDA | 17.72B | 14.04B | 6.72B | 735.00M | -648.00M | 7.88B |
| Net Income | 13.31B | 10.28B | 4.67B | -188.00M | -1.29B | 1.61B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 124.76B | 119.76B | 111.62B | 103.36B | 97.99B | 99.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.71B | 5.57B | 5.24B | 5.87B | 4.91B | 4.77B |
| Total Debt | 7.49B | 7.49B | 8.09B | 7.94B | 7.96B | 7.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 91.08B | 89.17B | 90.25B | 85.73B | 80.63B | 74.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.70B | 30.61B | 21.44B | 17.77B | 17.49B | 25.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.25B | 9.88B | 8.72B | 3.96B | 4.70B | 4.77B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.47B | 10.11B | 8.93B | 4.23B | 5.12B | 5.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.54B | -7.25B | -8.25B | -3.00B | -1.73B | 510.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.17B | -2.88B | -697.00M | -1.24B | -3.42B | -5.24B |
Allstate Technical Analysis
Positive
259.97
Price Trends
249.76
Positive
231.56
Positive
217.73
Positive
Market Momentum
1.63
Positive
46.33
Neutral
13.66
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 259.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 263.32, above the 50-day MA of 249.76, and above the 200-day MA of 217.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALL.
Allstate Risk Analysis
Allstate disclosed 6 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allstate reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Allstate Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | $64.36B | 5.01 | 43.13% | 1.60% | 5.92% | 134.66% | |
84 Outperform | $128.10B | 10.97 | 35.40% | 2.20% | 10.49% | 12.26% | |
82 Outperform | $132.28B | 11.98 | 15.22% | 1.09% | 8.24% | 24.30% | |
82 Outperform | $76.02B | 9.59 | 25.62% | 1.17% | 2.39% | 65.13% | |
79 Outperform | $37.14B | 8.72 | 22.99% | 1.65% | 5.95% | 39.99% | |
77 Outperform | $25.81B | 7.91 | 20.89% | 1.98% | 19.55% | 84.05% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
ALL
Allstate
253.83
52.37
25.99%
CB
Chubb
340.99
66.80
24.36%
CINF
Cincinnati Financial
168.29
16.29
10.72%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
136.10
4.38
3.33%
PGR
Progressive
219.28
-14.73
-6.29%
TRV
Travelers Companies
363.58
91.62
33.69%
Allstate Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Allstate Posts June Catastrophe Loss Transparency Update
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
In June 2026, Allstate issued its monthly update on estimated catastrophe losses, posting the information for investors on its dedicated website. The disclosure was furnished as an exhibit in a regulatory filing, underscoring the insurer’s p...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Allstate Appoints New Chief Financial Officer Christian Lown
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
Allstate announced that Christian M. Lown will join the company as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Allstate Corporation and Allstate Insurance Company, effective August 3, 2026. The move, disclosed in a July 14, 2026 press ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Allstate Issues May Catastrophe Loss Transparency Update
Neutral
Jun 18, 2026
In May 2026, Allstate issued its regular monthly update for investors detailing estimated catastrophe losses and policies in force, and made the information available on its investor relations website. By formally furnishing this data, the insurer...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Allstate Shareholders Back Board, Executive Pay at Meeting
Positive
May 27, 2026
Allstate held its annual stockholders meeting on May 22, 2026, where shareholders elected 11 directors to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 meeting, reaffirming the current board’s composition and governance structure. Investors also appro...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Allstate Posts April Catastrophe Loss and Policy Update
Neutral
May 21, 2026
Allstate disclosed that its April 2026 monthly release, which provides estimates of catastrophe losses and policies in force, has been posted on its investor website for stakeholders. The company characterized this update as furnished rather than ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.