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Allstate Corp (ALL)
NYSE:ALL
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Allstate
(NYSE:ALL)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$234.00
▲(13.39% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
Score is driven primarily by strong financial recovery and earnings quality (improving profitability, solid cash conversion, better leverage) plus very attractive valuation (low P/E). The earnings call supports the strength with improved underwriting performance and meaningful capital returns, while technicals are comparatively neutral and the key ongoing risk remains underwriting/claims-driven volatility and regulatory/cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Earnings & Margin Recovery
Sustained margin expansion and revenue acceleration reflect durable underwriting and pricing improvements plus operational fixes. Higher margins improve cash generation, support reinvestment and capital returns, and provide cushion against cyclical underwriting swings over the next 2–6 months.
Cash Generation & Balance Sheet Strength
Very strong FCF conversion and materially lower leverage enhance financial flexibility. Robust cash generation funds buybacks/dividends and supports reserve adequacy, reducing refinancing and solvency risk and enabling durable capital deployment despite underwriting cycles.
Transformative Growth & Market Share Gains
Scale gains and protection‑services growth reflect successful customer acquisition and cross‑sell. Larger scale lowers unit costs, spreads marketing investment, and diversifies revenue away from pure underwriting, supporting more stable long‑term earnings and competitive position.
Negative Factors
Underwriting & Claims Volatility
Underwriting cycles and reserve normalization can quickly reverse recent gains. Volatility in loss experience drives large swings in earnings, capital needs and reserve releases, limiting predictability of returns and requiring ongoing pricing and claims discipline to sustain fundamentals.
Multi‑year Cost Inflation & Severity
Sustained inflation in repair, parts and injury severity structurally raises claim costs, pressuring margins and forcing affordability actions. Persistently higher severity reduces underwriting leverage and may require higher rates or tighter coverage, constraining long‑term margin upside.
Regulatory & Pricing Constraints
State regulatory interventions and pending product approvals limit pricing flexibility and can delay or reduce rate changes. Regulatory constraints increase the risk that necessary price actions are muted, compressing underwriting returns and creating structural headwinds to profitability.
Allstate (ALL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$54.80B
Dividend Yield1.91%
Average Volume (3M)1.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.5
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth7.07%
EPS Growth100.42%
CountryUS
Employees55,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)14.31
Shares Outstanding261,681,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,696,732
30 Day Avg. Volume1,862,738
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.82
P/FCF Ratio5.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$240.00Price Target Upside16.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)25.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$62.22B
Allstate Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionThe Allstate Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty, and other insurance products in the United States and Canada. The company operates through Allstate Protection; Protection Services; Allstate Health and Benefits; and Run-off Property-Liability segments. The Allstate Protection segment offers private passenger auto and homeowners insurance; specialty auto products, including motorcycle, trailer, motor home, and off-road vehicle insurance; other personal lines products, such as renter, condominium, landlord, boat, umbrella, and manufactured home and stand-alone scheduled personal property; and commercial lines products under the Allstate and Encompass brand names. The Protection Services segment provides consumer product protection plans and related technical support for mobile phones, consumer electronics, furniture, and appliances; finance and insurance products, including vehicle service contracts, guaranteed asset protection waivers, road hazard tire and wheel, and paint and fabric protection; roadside assistance; device and mobile data collection services; data and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information; and identity protection services. This segment offers its products under various brands including Allstate Protection Plans, Allstate Dealer Services, Allstate Roadside Services, Arity, and Allstate Identity Protection. The Allstate Health and Benefits provides life, accident, critical illness, short-term disability, and other health insurance products. The Run-off Property-Liability offers property and casualty insurance. It sells its products through call centers, agencies, financial specialists, independent agents, brokers, wholesale partners, and affinity groups, as well as through online and mobile applications. The Allstate Corporation was founded in 1931 and is based in Northbrook, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyAllstate generates revenue primarily through its insurance premiums collected from policyholders. The company uses a model where it assesses risk and sets premium prices accordingly, allowing it to earn income from underwriting insurance policies. Additionally, Allstate invests a significant portion of the premium income in various securities and assets, generating investment income. Key revenue streams include auto insurance, homeowner's insurance, and life insurance premiums. The company also earns fees from services related to insurance products and has partnerships with various financial institutions for cross-selling opportunities, enhancing its overall revenue generation.
Allstate Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Policies In Force
Indicates the total number of active insurance policies, reflecting customer base size and market penetration. A growing number suggests effective sales strategies and customer retention.
Indicates the total number of active insurance policies, reflecting customer base size and market penetration. A growing number suggests effective sales strategies and customer retention.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAllstate Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong financial results, clear evidence that the Transformative Growth Initiative is driving market-share gains, improved underwriting and operational progress (claims, expense reduction, and customer affordability programs). These positive developments are tempered by structural industry headwinds — notably sustained cost inflation (physical damage, bodily injury, UM/UIM), regulatory uncertainty in some states (including pending product approvals), legacy-brand drag on policies in force, and some signs of increased customer shopping/retention pressure. Management communicated credible actions to address affordability, strengthen channels, and return capital to shareholders, and the positives (robust earnings, margin improvements, double‑digit product/channel growth, and meaningful capital returns) meaningfully outweigh the listed challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Overall Financial Results
Total revenues of $17.3 billion in Q4 and $67.7 billion for FY2025; net income applicable to common shareholders of $3.8 billion in Q4 and $10.2 billion for the year. Adjusted net income of $3.8 billion (Q4) or $14.31 per share and $9.3 billion for 2025 ($34.83 per share). Q4 net income improved vs. $1.9 billion in the prior-year quarter driven by better underwriting, lower catastrophes and reserve releases.
Transformative Growth — Personal Lines Expansion
Personal lines new business more than doubled from 5.5 million (2019) to 11.6 million (2025). Total personal lines policies in force increased from 33.5 million to 38.1 million since 2019, demonstrating successful market-share gains from the Transformative Growth Initiative.
Affordability Actions and Customer Impact
SAVE program reduced premiums for 7.8 million customers by an average of 17% in 2025. ASC auto rate reductions implemented in 32 states with an average reduction of 9%. Cumulative earned premium impact from rate decreases and SAVE actions totaled $810 million (~2% of 2025 auto earned premiums).
Property & Liability Operational Performance
Premiums earned: auto +4.4% and homeowners +15% (full year). Auto policy growth +2.3% and homeowners +2.5%. Auto combined ratio improved by ~10 points vs. prior year (auto underwriting income $5.7 billion); homeowners recorded combined ratio 84.4 with an underlying combined ratio of 57.9 and underwriting income $2.4 billion — indicating strong underlying profitability.
Protection Services Growth
Protection services policies in force grew 3.3% to 172 million; revenue increased 11.7% to $3.3 billion for the year. Domestic revenue +8.1% and international revenue +39.7% year over year. Protection services generated $49 million in adjusted net income in the quarter (up 32.4% YoY).
Improving Expense & Pricing Efficiency
Adjusted expense ratio down 6.6 points since 2018, enabling lower prices while maintaining margins. Marketing investment increased to $2.1 billion in 2025 (from $900 million in 2019) to support acquisition and scale.
Investment Income and Capital Returns
Net investment income rose to $3.4 billion in 2025, up ~$350 million YoY. Total portfolio carrying value increased by ~ $73 billion to $83 billion. Market-based assets returned 6.1% over 12 months. Returned > $2.2 billion to shareholders in 2025; dividend raised 8% to $1.08 per share; $4 billion share repurchase program authorized (to follow completion of the existing $1.5 billion program).
Claims & Operational Improvements Driving Results
Auto claims process enhancements (inspection optimization, adjuster training, predictive models, faster payments) contributed to improved loss outcomes, favorable reserve adjustments and supported affordability efforts.
Negative Updates
Industry Cost Inflation and Litigation Pressure
Significant multi-year cost inflation: physical damage costs up ~47% over five years (used car prices +43%), bodily injury costs up ~52% over five years, and uninsured/underinsured motorist costs up ~72%. These trends place sustained upward pressure on premiums and affordability.
Regulatory and Legislative Risk on Pricing
Heightened regulatory scrutiny and some states pursuing proactive rate relief; potential for state-level mandates or look-back periods that could pressure pricing and returns. New York product approvals remain pending and regulatory changes could limit rate flexibility.
Legacy Brand Drag and Retention/Shopping Trends
Drag on policies in force from legacy/’non-active’ brands (e.g., Encompass, Esurance) is reflected in aggregate PIF trends; retention and shopping have risen versus historical norms. Management acknowledged average premium written per policy turned negative in Q4, driven by rate changes, mix and coverage actions.
Severity, Parts Costs and Uncertainty on Injury Trends
While frequency has declined in some areas (autonomy/driver aids), severity increased due to higher replacement/parts costs and elevated bodily injury settlements; this complexity introduces earnings volatility and attribution uncertainty.
Private Markets & Performance-Based Investment Pressure
Performance-based investments returned 5.8%, down slightly YoY; management sold ~$270 million of fund interests in the secondary market and moderated new commitments amid a tighter private market liquidity environment.
Competitive Headwinds
Highly competitive auto/home market with aggressive rivals (Progressive, GEICO, State Farm and specialty/new entrants). Management must continue pricing/product innovation and channel execution to sustain share gains.
Reserve Release/Normalization Risk
A portion of the improved results benefited from reserve releases and lower catastrophe activity; these favorable drivers may normalize and could reverse, introducing potential downside to underwriting results if loss trends change.
Company Guidance
The company reiterated strong capital deployment and operating targets: shareholders received $2.2 billion of cash returns in 2025, the quarterly dividend will increase 8% to $1.08 per share (payable 04/01/2026), and a $4.0 billion share‑repurchase program was authorized to follow completion of the existing $1.5 billion program (to be completed in 2026). Full‑year 2025 results included revenues of $67.7 billion, net income applicable to common shareholders of $10.2 billion (Q4: $3.8 billion), adjusted net income of $9.3 billion ($34.83 per share) for the year and $3.8 billion ($14.31) in Q4, net investment income of $3.4 billion (up >$350 million YoY) with total portfolio carrying value up ~ $73 billion to $83 billion, market‑based assets returning 6.1% and performance‑based investments returning 5.8%. On property‑liability, Allstate said it will continue driving affordability while maintaining margins: auto premiums earned +4.4% with auto policy growth +2.3% and $5.7 billion of auto underwriting income (auto combined ratio improved ~10 points; underlying auto combined ratio ex‑reserve/catastrophe items ~90), homeowners premiums +15% with policy growth +2.5% and $2.4 billion of homeowners underwriting income (recorded combined ratio 84.4; underlying 57.9; targets: recorded low‑90s / underlying low‑to‑mid‑60s); the cumulative earned‑premium impact of rate decreases and SAVE actions totaled ~$810 million (~2% of 2025 auto earned premiums). Transformative‑growth metrics cited include personal‑lines new business rising from 5.5 million (2019) to 11.6 million (2025), policies in force up to 38.1 million (from 33.5M), protection‑services PIF +3.3% to 172 million with revenue +11.7% to $3.3 billion (protection plans ≈ $2.3B), an adjusted expense ratio down 6.6 points since 2018, and marketing investment of $2.1 billion in 2025.Allstate Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong 2024–2025 rebound with rapid revenue growth, sharply higher margins, solid free-cash-flow generation, and improving leverage. Key offset is notable earnings and cash-flow volatility tied to underwriting/claims conditions (losses in 2022 and near break-even in 2023).Income Statement
Allstate shows a strong earnings recovery and improving profitability. Revenue accelerated meaningfully in 2024 and 2025 (up ~12% and ~38%), while margins expanded sharply—net margin rose from ~7% (2024) to ~15% (2025) and operating profitability improved as well. The main weakness is volatility: results were loss-making in 2022 and near break-even in 2023, highlighting sensitivity to underwriting conditions and catastrophe/claims trends despite the current strength.84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears manageable and improving, with debt-to-equity declining from ~0.46 (2022) to ~0.24 (2025) alongside a material rise in equity. Return on equity is very strong in 2025 (~34%) after negative levels in 2022–2023, indicating a pronounced turnaround. The key risk is earnings cyclicality: equity and returns can swing meaningfully when profitability weakens, even if headline leverage remains reasonable.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is solid and strengthening: operating cash flow and free cash flow rose materially into 2024–2025, with free cash flow near $9.9B in 2025. Free cash flow closely tracks reported earnings (free cash flow is ~98% of net income in 2024–2025), supporting earnings quality. The main drawback is variability in cash flow growth (declines in 2021–2023 followed by a sharp rebound), which mirrors the business’s profit volatility.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 66.46B | 63.52B | 56.59B | 50.62B | 48.68B |
| Gross Profit | 22.09B | 14.50B | 7.17B | 5.68B | 12.03B |
| EBITDA | 13.93B | 6.72B | 735.00M | -648.00M | 7.88B |
| Net Income | 10.28B | 4.67B | -188.00M | -1.29B | 1.61B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 119.76B | 111.62B | 103.36B | 97.99B | 99.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 678.00M | 5.24B | 5.87B | 4.91B | 4.77B |
| Total Debt | 7.49B | 8.09B | 7.94B | 7.96B | 7.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 89.17B | 90.25B | 85.73B | 80.63B | 74.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 30.61B | 21.44B | 17.77B | 17.49B | 25.18B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.88B | 8.72B | 3.96B | 4.70B | 4.77B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.11B | 8.93B | 4.23B | 5.12B | 5.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.25B | -8.25B | -3.00B | -1.73B | 510.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.88B | -697.00M | -1.24B | -3.42B | -5.24B |
Allstate Technical Analysis
Positive
206.37
Price Trends
204.01
Positive
203.69
Positive
201.77
Positive
Market Momentum
1.43
Negative
52.62
Neutral
47.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 206.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 203.14, above the 50-day MA of 204.01, and above the 200-day MA of 201.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALL.
Allstate Risk Analysis
Allstate disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allstate reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Allstate Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $54.80B | 5.50 | 39.51% | 1.91% | 7.07% | 100.42% | |
80 Outperform | $129.59B | 12.82 | 14.97% | 1.22% | 6.68% | -1.78% | |
79 Outperform | $39.36B | 10.61 | 21.66% | 1.55% | 7.11% | 22.52% | |
76 Outperform | $25.47B | 10.76 | 16.04% | 2.10% | -0.63% | -30.68% | |
76 Outperform | $119.20B | 10.57 | ― | 2.20% | 18.35% | 32.36% | |
76 Outperform | $64.54B | 10.88 | 20.70% | 1.49% | 6.75% | 30.83% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
ALL
Allstate
206.37
21.25
11.48%
CB
Chubb
331.62
61.75
22.88%
CINF
Cincinnati Financial
163.00
28.96
21.61%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
142.19
30.26
27.04%
PGR
Progressive
204.08
-51.97
-20.30%
TRV
Travelers Companies
304.93
60.67
24.84%
Allstate Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Allstate Posts January Catastrophe Loss and Policy Update
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
Allstate disclosed that its January 2026 monthly update on estimated catastrophe losses and policies in force has been made available on its investor website for market participants. The information, furnished rather than filed as part of a regulatory report, provides investors with additional transparency into Allstate’s recent catastrophe experience and current policy base, which are key drivers of its financial performance and risk profile.
The most recent analyst rating on (ALL) stock is a Hold with a $215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allstate stock, see the ALL Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Allstate Issues Monthly Catastrophe Loss and Policy Update
Neutral
Jan 15, 2026
In December 2025, Allstate published its monthly release detailing estimated catastrophe losses and policies in force, making the information available on its investor website. The disclosure, provided as an exhibit to a regulatory filing, supplied investors and other stakeholders with updated metrics on the company’s exposure to catastrophic events and its current insurance portfolio, supporting ongoing assessment of Allstate’s financial performance and risk profile.
The most recent analyst rating on (ALL) stock is a Buy with a $255.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allstate stock, see the ALL Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Allstate Issues November 2025 Catastrophe Loss Update
Neutral
Dec 18, 2025
Allstate announced that its November 2025 monthly update detailing estimated catastrophe losses and policies in force has been made available to investors via its website. The release signals the company’s ongoing practice of providing regular transparency on catastrophe exposure and policy trends, information that is closely watched by investors and other stakeholders assessing Allstate’s risk profile and operating performance.
The most recent analyst rating on (ALL) stock is a Buy with a $254.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allstate stock, see the ALL Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.