Progressive Corp. (PGR)
NYSE:PGR
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Progressive
(NYSE:PGR)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$225.00
▲(11.07% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and a very constructive earnings-call outlook, supported by attractive P/E and dividend yield. These positives are tempered by weaker technical momentum and uncertainty in the latest-period financial statement comparability (notably 2025 balance sheet and cash flow inconsistencies) alongside some underwriting/regulatory risk factors.
Positive Factors
Underwriting profitability & combined ratio
A sustained combined ratio under 90 in 2025 and ~40% comprehensive ROE indicate durable underwriting discipline and pricing power. Persistently strong underwriting margins generate recurring earnings, bolster statutory surplus, and provide long-term capacity to absorb losses while funding growth.
Negative Factors
2025 balance sheet/cash-flow inconsistencies
Material inconsistencies in 2025 balance-sheet and cash-flow lines obscure true capital and liquidity positions. This makes ROE and leverage comparisons unreliable, complicates capital-planning, regulatory ratios and investor assessment of long-term solvency and cash-generation durability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Underwriting profitability & combined ratio
A sustained combined ratio under 90 in 2025 and ~40% comprehensive ROE indicate durable underwriting discipline and pricing power. Persistently strong underwriting margins generate recurring earnings, bolster statutory surplus, and provide long-term capacity to absorb losses while funding growth.
Read all positive factors
Progressive (PGR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$118.15B
Dividend Yield2.2%
Average Volume (3M)2.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.3
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth13.89%
EPS Growth32.56%
CountryUS
Employees66,308
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.60
Shares Outstanding584,962,800
10 Day Avg. Volume2,894,572
30 Day Avg. Volume2,966,897
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.35
Price to Book (P/B)4.40
Price to Sales (P/S)1.52
P/FCF Ratio7.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$231.76Price Target Upside14.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)16.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$89.15B
Progressive Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the...
How the Company Makes Money
Progressive makes money primarily through (1) insurance underwriting and (2) investment income on its invested assets. Underwriting revenue comes from premiums collected on policies (most notably personal auto and commercial auto). From these prem...
Progressive Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Premiums
Shows the total premiums earned minus reinsurance costs, reflecting the company’s ability to generate revenue from its core insurance business.
Shows the total premiums earned minus reinsurance costs, reflecting the company’s ability to generate revenue from its core insurance business.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyProgressive Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a very strong 2025 characterized by exceptional growth and profitability: ~ $9B net premiums written, ~3.7M new policies, comprehensive income near $13B, comprehensive ROE ~40%, and investment portfolio returns of 7.33%. Management reinforced disciplined capital and investment policies (variable dividend of $13.50/share, targeted leverage <30%, conservative investment guidelines) while pursuing growth via higher operating leverage and strategic initiatives (Three Horizons, product diversification, AI/UBI). Notable challenges were acknowledged but comparatively smaller in scale: Florida rate cuts and a $1.2B policyholder credit, softer personal-line premium growth in parts of the year, trucking headwinds, and areas of BI severity to watch. Overall, the positives (substantial growth, industry-leading returns, strong investment performance, and active capital returns) outweigh the highlighted risks and operational headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Premium and Policy Growth
Added almost $9 billion in net premiums written in 2025 and nearly 3.7 million additional policies in force; personal vehicles PIF grew ~12% (almost 3.5 million policies), equating to ~5.5 million more vehicles insured vs year-end 2024. Management estimates roughly +2 percentage points of U.S. private passenger auto market share year-over-year, to ~18.5% market share.
Negative Updates
Florida Market Pressure and Policyholder Credit
Florida rate environment prompted multiple rate reductions (three rate cuts in the past year) and contributed to a policyholder credit charge that grew to $1.2 billion by year-end 2025; management continues to monitor combined ratio and may take further new-business rate decreases if needed.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Premium and Policy Growth
Added almost $9 billion in net premiums written in 2025 and nearly 3.7 million additional policies in force; personal vehicles PIF grew ~12% (almost 3.5 million policies), equating to ~5.5 million more vehicles insured vs year-end 2024. Management estimates roughly +2 percentage points of U.S. private passenger auto market share year-over-year, to ~18.5% market share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call reiterated clear capital and operating guidance: Progressive will “grow as fast as we can” while targeting a combined ratio ≤96 (2025 was below 90), pursue higher operating leverage (regulators approved up to 3.5:1 premiums-to-surplus; enterprise moved closer to ~3 from a five‑year average of 2.8, freeing ~$1.6B in 2025), maintain a contingent capital buffer sized to a 1‑in‑200‑year modeled event, and keep financial leverage prudent (public guideline: debt/total capital <30%). Key 2025 metrics underpinning that guidance included ~ $9B of net premiums written, ~3.7M incremental policies in force (personal vehicles PIF +12% / ~3.5M; ~5.5M more vehicles insured vs YE‑2024), ~2 points of private‑passenger market share gain to ~18.5%, nearly $13B of comprehensive income and a ~40% comprehensive ROE, and strong investment results (portfolio ~ $95–100B, ~95% fixed income / <5% equities, year‑end duration ≈3.5 years, average credit AA‑, 2025 portfolio return 7.33% with ~ $5B after‑tax contribution). Capital‑allocation levers highlighted include a variable annual dividend ($13.50/share paid in Jan 2026 from ~ $13B at the holding company, leaving ~ $5B), continued selective share repurchases (board authorization 25M shares), optional deployment to M&A or investment risk, and a preference for liquidity and conservatism to preserve flexibility.Progressive Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 87.64B | 75.34B | 62.08B | 49.59B | 47.68B |
| Gross Profit | 25.83B | 20.90B | 11.76B | 7.55B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 14.81B | 11.28B | 5.46B | 1.47B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 11.31B | 8.48B | 3.90B | 722.00M | 3.35B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 123.04B | 105.75B | 88.69B | 75.47B | 71.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.84B | 76.09B | 62.25B | 49.72B | 45.00B |
| Total Debt | 6.90B | 6.89B | 6.89B | 6.39B | 4.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 92.72B | 80.15B | 68.41B | 59.57B | 52.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 30.32B | 25.59B | 20.28B | 15.89B | 18.23B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 17.20B | 14.83B | 10.39B | 6.56B | 7.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.55B | 15.12B | 10.64B | 6.85B | 7.76B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.53B | -13.75B | -10.84B | -7.96B | -3.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.04B | -1.32B | 78.00M | 1.13B | -4.52B |
Progressive Technical Analysis
Neutral
202.58
Price Trends
203.62
Negative
207.39
Negative
215.58
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.02
Negative
52.32
Neutral
80.25
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 202.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 199.90, below the 50-day MA of 203.62, and below the 200-day MA of 215.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PGR.
Progressive Risk Analysis
Progressive disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Progressive reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Progressive Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $25.79B | 22.22 | 16.13% | 2.10% | 11.41% | 4.67% | |
82 Outperform | $64.59B | 9.17 | 24.14% | 1.49% | 4.12% | 83.05% | |
80 Outperform | $55.31B | 5.29 | 39.47% | 1.91% | 5.58% | 124.80% | |
78 Outperform | $126.67B | 13.86 | 15.69% | 1.22% | 8.28% | ― | |
76 Outperform | $25.82B | 12.62 | 26.08% | 1.88% | 6.60% | 9.14% | |
72 Outperform | $118.15B | 10.30 | 45.09% | 2.20% | 13.89% | 32.56% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
PGR
Progressive
203.03
-61.54
-23.26%
CB
Chubb
330.34
47.93
16.97%
ALL
Allstate
216.40
21.84
11.23%
CINF
Cincinnati Financial
164.96
28.87
21.22%
TRV
Travelers Companies
310.02
50.01
19.23%
WRB
W. R. Berkley Corporation
67.12
-2.70
-3.87%
Progressive Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Progressive Issues $1.5 Billion in New Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
On March 23, 2026, The Progressive Corporation entered into an underwriting agreement with Goldman Sachs Co. LLC and TD Securities (USA) LLC to issue $500 million of 4.60% senior notes due 2031 and $1 billion of 5.15% senior notes due 2036. The t...
Financial Disclosures
Progressive Releases February 2026 Financial Performance Update
Neutral
Mar 18, 2026
On March 18, 2026, The Progressive Corporation reported that it had released financial results for the company and its consolidated subsidiaries covering the month and year-to-date periods ended February 28, 2026. The disclosure of these results p...
Financial Disclosures
Progressive Reports January 2026 Financial Performance Update
Neutral
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, The Progressive Corporation reported financial results for itself and its consolidated subsidiaries covering the month ended January 31, 2026. The release provides investors and analysts with an updated snapshot of the insure...
Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Progressive reports strong Q4 2025 results, announces CFO transition
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, The Progressive Corporation reported its financial results for December and the quarter ended December 31, 2025, alongside announcing that long-time Chief Financial Officer John P. Sauerland intends to retire on July 3, 2026, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.