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Progressive
(NYSE:PGR)
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Rating:84Outperform
Price Target:
$252.00
▲(24.40% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (material margin recovery, solid capital position, and strong cash generation) and supportive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). The earnings call adds confidence in disciplined underwriting and growth execution, while technical indicators are more neutral and slightly constrain the overall score.
Positive Factors
Market leadership in personal auto
Becoming the largest U.S. personal auto writer delivers durable scale advantages: broader risk pools, superior loss-ratio analytics, stronger bargaining power with vendors, and more efficient customer acquisition. Scale supports cross-sell, spreads fixed costs and enhances data-driven pricing over time.
Negative Factors
Rising competitive pressure
Elevated shopping and more competitors returning quotes erode pricing power and win rates over time. Persistent competitive intensity can force wider or targeted rate cuts, increase acquisition spending, and compress underwriting margins unless offset by superior segmentation or cost advantage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Market leadership in personal auto
Becoming the largest U.S. personal auto writer delivers durable scale advantages: broader risk pools, superior loss-ratio analytics, stronger bargaining power with vendors, and more efficient customer acquisition. Scale supports cross-sell, spreads fixed costs and enhances data-driven pricing over time.
Read all positive factors
Progressive Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Premiums Written by Segment
Captures new and renewed premium business after reinsurance for each segment, reflecting sales momentum and customer retention. Trends indicate market demand, distribution effectiveness, and exposure growth that will convert into future earned revenue.
Captures new and renewed premium business after reinsurance for each segment, reflecting sales momentum and customer retention. Trends indicate market demand, distribution effectiveness, and exposure growth that will convert into future earned revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyProgressive (PGR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$128.10B
Dividend Yield6.34%
Average Volume (3M)3.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.0
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth10.49%
EPS Growth12.26%
CountryUS
Employees70,053
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)19.98
Shares Outstanding581,371,770
10 Day Avg. Volume2,448,192
30 Day Avg. Volume3,164,490
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.35
Price to Book (P/B)4.40
Price to Sales (P/S)1.52
P/FCF Ratio7.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$233.88Price Target Upside15.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)17.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$88.00B
Progressive Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commer...
How the Company Makes Money
Progressive primarily makes money through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income generated from its investment portfolio.
1) Underwriting (insurance) revenue and profit
- Premiums: The core source of revenue is insurance premiums paid ...
Progressive Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized substantial strategic progress — most notably becoming the largest U.S. personal auto writer, a completed property turnaround with markedly improved profitability and reduced tail risk, broadened addressable property markets, continued PIF growth, and disciplined reinvestment in distribution and technology. At the same time, management acknowledged a softer market backdrop, elevated competition that has reduced win rates, moderated growth versus the 2024–2025 peaks, and remaining work to capture Agency Robinsons share and restore agent-facing competitiveness in some segments. On balance, the improvements in core capabilities, strong recent profitability, and clearly articulated plans to convert property health into disciplined growth outweigh the near-term competitive and market challenges.Positive Updates
Largest U.S. Personal Auto Writer (Trailing 12 Months)
Progressive achieved the milestone of becoming the largest U.S. personal auto writer on a trailing 12-month basis by direct premiums written, while continuing to grow PIFs (company-wide PIFs surpassed 40 million).
Negative Updates
Soft Market and Increasing Competitive Pressure
Industry shopping remains elevated and competition has increased; average number of carriers returning rates on comparative raters rose by just over 30% since Q1 2024, reducing expected win rates and pressuring price competitiveness.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Largest U.S. Personal Auto Writer (Trailing 12 Months)
Progressive achieved the milestone of becoming the largest U.S. personal auto writer on a trailing 12-month basis by direct premiums written, while continuing to grow PIFs (company-wide PIFs surpassed 40 million).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Progressive guided that it will continue to “grow as fast as possible at or below a 96 combined ratio” while taking a disciplined, capital‑aware approach to property (which is managed to an appropriate return on capital given higher volatility); highlights included property net combined ratios of 75 in 2025 and a YTD 2026 CR of 78, a 3.7x increase in property direct written premium since 2015, total insured value up 30% since 2022 while modeled 1‑in‑100 PML fell ~33%, a 23% reduction in high‑weather state TIV mix, by‑peril pricing now in all but one state (up from states representing 39% of Homes premium in 2024), 93% of Homes premium on product model 5.0 or newer (6.0 launched), wildfire/wind nonrenewals 73% complete, agent remediation ~92% complete, healthy/growth‑ready states rising from 18 to 41 (addressable market from ~40% to ~82%), and availability more than doubled since Q3 2024; on auto the company noted it is now the largest U.S. personal auto writer (trailing‑12 DPW), surpassed 40 million PIFs (PL PIFs +8% YoY; +2.8M PIFs overall, +2.2M auto), added ~45k auto PIFs in June, took targeted auto rate decreases in 16 states covering ~37% of net written premium, increased Q2 advertising to $1.4B (+16% YoY) with cost‑per‑sale below TAC, and plans to move most entities toward a 3.5:1 premium‑to‑surplus by year‑end while returning excess capital via dividends/repurchases as appropriate.Progressive Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 91.05B | 87.64B | 75.34B | 62.08B | 49.59B | 47.68B |
| Gross Profit | 24.50B | 25.83B | 20.90B | 11.76B | 7.55B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 15.39B | 14.81B | 11.28B | 5.46B | 1.47B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 11.70B | 11.31B | 8.48B | 3.90B | 722.00M | 3.35B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 124.92B | 123.04B | 105.75B | 88.69B | 75.47B | 71.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.16B | 19.84B | 76.09B | 62.25B | 49.72B | 45.00B |
| Total Debt | 8.39B | 6.90B | 6.89B | 6.89B | 6.39B | 4.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 90.59B | 92.72B | 80.15B | 68.41B | 59.57B | 52.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 34.33B | 30.32B | 25.59B | 20.28B | 15.89B | 18.23B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 15.95B | 17.20B | 14.83B | 10.39B | 6.56B | 7.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.34B | 17.55B | 15.12B | 10.64B | 6.85B | 7.76B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.43B | -14.53B | -13.75B | -10.84B | -7.96B | -3.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.85B | -3.04B | -1.32B | 78.00M | 1.13B | -4.52B |
Progressive Technical Analysis
Positive
202.58
Price Trends
214.97
Positive
206.93
Positive
207.64
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Negative
56.96
Neutral
86.21
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 202.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 213.24, below the 50-day MA of 214.97, and below the 200-day MA of 207.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PGR.
Progressive Risk Analysis
Progressive disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Progressive reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Progressive Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | $64.36B | 5.01 | 43.13% | 1.60% | 5.92% | 134.66% | |
84 Outperform | $128.10B | 10.97 | 35.40% | 2.20% | 10.49% | 12.26% | |
82 Outperform | $132.28B | 11.98 | 15.22% | 1.09% | 8.24% | 24.30% | |
82 Outperform | $76.02B | 9.59 | 25.62% | 1.17% | 2.39% | 65.13% | |
78 Outperform | $25.68B | 14.03 | 19.55% | 2.44% | 4.27% | 10.55% | |
77 Outperform | $25.81B | 7.91 | 20.89% | 1.98% | 19.55% | 84.05% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
PGR
Progressive
219.28
-9.92
-4.33%
CB
Chubb
340.99
70.04
25.85%
ALL
Allstate
253.83
55.74
28.14%
CINF
Cincinnati Financial
168.29
18.34
12.23%
TRV
Travelers Companies
363.58
95.51
35.63%
WRB
W. R. Berkley Corporation
68.60
-0.61
-0.89%
Progressive Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Progressive Highlights Catastrophe Reinsurance Transparency and Strategy
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
On August 7, 2026, Progressive’s board of directors declared a quarterly common share dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on October 9, 2026, to shareholders of record as of October 1, 2026. This dividend decision underscores the insurer...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Progressive Announces Leadership Changes and Executive Compensation Updates
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 17, 2026, The Progressive Corporation announced that Personal Lines President Patrick K. Callahan intends to retire in January 2027, after which he plans to remain as a strategic advisor, while CRM President Lori Niederst will become Chief...
Financial Disclosures
Progressive Releases April 2026 Financial Results Update
Neutral
May 20, 2026
On May 20, 2026, The Progressive Corporation reported that it had released financial results for the company and its consolidated subsidiaries covering the month and year-to-date periods ended April 30, 2026. The disclosure signals ongoing transpa...
Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
Progressive Names New CFO and Extends Capital Returns
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 8, 2026, Progressive’s board elected Andrew J. Quigg, currently Chief Strategy and Finance Management Officer and formerly Chief Strategy Officer since July 2018, to become vice president and chief financial officer effective July 4, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.