Progressive (PGR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $157.02B
• Dividend Yield: 0.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.77M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.37
• Revenue Growth: 20.74%
• EPS Growth: 51.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 66,308
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 4.01
• Shares Outstanding: 586,223,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,148,502
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,769,829
• PEG Ratio: -1.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.52
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.91
• 1Y Price Target: $303.87
• Price Target Upside: 13.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $287.00 ▲(7.15%Upside)

Progressive's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, particularly in terms of growth and operational efficiency. However, technical analysis indicates short-term bearish trends, and valuation is mixed with fair pricing but moderate dividend yield. Challenges in tariffs and competition add risk, but the company's strategic management and growth initiatives offer a positive long-term outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Significant upside potential for high quality at a low risk level undergirds the Buy rating.

Financial Performance

The strong underwriting profit year-to-date for Progressive, with a combined ratio of about 86%, supports the bullish case that earnings momentum is strong.

Operational Efficiency

The expense ratio has ticked down, indicating improved efficiency in their operations.

Negative Factors

Competition

Competition is greater than it was one year ago as margins have become healthier, emboldening competitors to seek new customers.

Growth Challenges

Growth at the margin peak is decelerating.

Growth Concerns

Growth may have peaked, and the key will be how the company maintains better than industry level of growth and margin.

Progressive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a leading American insurance company headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio. It primarily operates within the property and casualty insurance sectors. Progressive is well-known for its auto insurance offerings, providing coverage to both personal and commercial vehicles. Additionally, the company offers a variety of other insurance products, including home, renters, and life insurance through partnerships. Progressive is recognized for its innovative approach to insurance, utilizing technology and direct customer engagement to streamline processes and improve customer service.

How the Company Makes Money

Progressive Corporation generates revenue primarily through the premiums collected from its insurance policies. These premiums are paid by policyholders in exchange for coverage against various risks, such as vehicle accidents, property damage, and liability claims. The company also earns investment income from the premiums collected, which are invested in a diverse portfolio of securities. Progressive differentiates itself through its direct sales model and extensive use of online platforms, enabling it to reduce costs and offer competitive pricing. Additionally, Progressive has established significant partnerships with other insurers to offer complementary products, such as homeowners insurance, which helps to broaden its customer base and revenue streams.

Progressive Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Progressive's financial performance is strong, highlighted by robust profitability and growth in its income statement, stable debt management on the balance sheet, and impressive cash flow generation. The company demonstrates solid revenue growth and efficient operations, positioning it well for future growth. However, vigilance over liabilities is recommended to sustain stability.

Income Statement

Progressive's income statement demonstrates strong profitability and growth. The gross profit and net profit margins are robust, with net profit margin standing at 11.1% for TTM. The company showcases solid revenue growth, with a 25.4% increase from 2023 to 2024 and a 4.2% increase from 2024 to TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 14.0% and 14.7% respectively for TTM, indicating efficient operations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is modest at 0.24, and the equity ratio is 26.0% for TTM, suggesting a conservative approach to leverage. The return on equity is high at 30.1%, indicating effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits. However, the company should monitor its liabilities to ensure continued stability.

Cash Flow

Progressive's cash flow statement is impressive, with a strong free cash flow growth rate of 6.0% from 2023 to 2024 and a significant operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.84 for TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also strong at 1.80, indicating efficient cash generation and management. This financial strength provides flexibility for future investments and debt servicing.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
78.51B	75.34B	62.08B	49.59B	47.68B	42.64B
	Gross Profit
78.51B	75.34B	62.08B	49.59B	47.68B	42.64B
	EBIT
11.01B	10.71B	4.90B	922.00M	4.21B	7.17B
	EBITDA
11.57B	11.28B	5.46B	1.47B	4.77B	7.72B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
8.72B	8.48B	3.90B	722.00M	3.35B	5.70B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
11.28B	76.09B	84.90M	8.95B	45.00B	42.11B
	Total Assets
111.41B	105.75B	88.69B	70.23B	71.13B	64.10B
	Total Debt
6.89B	6.89B	6.89B	6.53B	4.90B	5.40B
	Net Debt
6.70B	6.75B	6.80B	6.30B	4.71B	5.32B
	Total Liabilities
82.45B	80.15B	68.41B	54.34B	52.90B	47.06B
	Stockholders Equity
28.95B	25.59B	20.28B	15.89B	18.23B	17.04B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
15.73B	14.83B	10.39B	6.56B	7.52B	6.68B
	Operating Cash Flow
16.03B	15.12B	10.64B	6.85B	7.76B	6.91B
	Investing Cash Flow
-12.97B	-13.75B	-10.84B	-7.96B	-3.12B	-6.12B
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.02B	-1.32B	78.00M	1.13B	-4.52B	-938.80M

Progressive Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 267.85
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 267.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 278.36, below the 50-day MA of 275.81, and above the 200-day MA of 258.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.75 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PGR.

Progressive Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WRB	82 Outperform	$27.80B	16.99	20.73%	0.44%	11.39%	14.76%
CB	76 Outperform	$114.92B	13.81	13.40%	1.35%	9.09%	-7.55%
TRV	75 Outperform	$59.69B	14.34	16.05%	1.67%	9.60%	36.89%
ALL	74 Outperform	$52.68B	13.59	19.88%	2.01%	11.49%	219.86%
MKL	73 Outperform	$24.47B	14.21	10.94%	―	-6.46%	-26.71%
PGR	66 Neutral	$157.02B	18.03	34.34%	0.15%	20.74%	51.73%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.77B	9.71	7.85%	78.06%	12.07%	-7.97%

Progressive Corporate Events

Progressive Releases April 2025 Financial Results

On May 21, 2025, The Progressive Corporation released its financial results for April 2025, detailing the company’s performance for both the month and the year-to-date period. This announcement provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and operational progress as of the end of April 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Buy with a $235.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.

Progressive Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting, Approves Key Decisions

On May 9, 2025, The Progressive Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where 511,221,365 common shares were represented. During the meeting, shareholders elected eleven directors, approved the executive compensation program, and ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, the Board of Directors renewed the authorization to repurchase up to 25 million common shares and declared a quarterly dividend of ten cents per share, payable on July 11, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Buy with a $235.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.