Progressive (PGR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $121.97B
• Dividend Yield: 2.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 18.35%
• EPS Growth: 32.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 66,308
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 3.95
• Shares Outstanding: 586,397,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,846,084
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,143,851
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.86
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.65
• 1Y Price Target: $246.84
• Price Target Upside: 18.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $235.00 ▲(12.98% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability, conservative leverage, and strong cash conversion) and supportive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by a neutral-to-weak technical trend (below major moving averages, negative MACD) and earnings-related risks around Florida credits, competition, and potential margin compression.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Performance

Progressive's strong financial performance with a low combined ratio and significant premium growth indicates efficient operations and market competitiveness, supporting long-term profitability.

Market Share Expansion

The expansion in market share reflects Progressive's effective strategies in customer acquisition and retention, which are crucial for sustaining revenue growth and competitive positioning.

Legislative Benefits in Florida

Legislative changes in Florida have reduced costs and litigation, enhancing profitability and providing a more favorable operating environment for Progressive in a key market.

Negative Factors

Florida Excess Profits Liability

The liability from excess profits in Florida could strain financial resources and impact profitability, necessitating careful management to mitigate long-term financial risks.

Competitive Pressure in Personal Auto

Rising competition in the Personal Auto segment may pressure margins and require increased spending to maintain market share, potentially affecting long-term profitability.

Potential Margin Compression

Margin compression from pricing adjustments could reduce profitability in the Personal Auto segment, impacting overall financial performance if not managed effectively.

Progressive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Progressive generates revenue primarily through underwriting insurance premiums from its policyholders. The company earns money by collecting premiums for auto and other types of insurance, which are then used to pay for claims made by policyholders. A significant portion of Progressive's revenue comes from its personal auto insurance segment, which is bolstered by its competitive pricing and effective marketing strategies. Additionally, Progressive invests its premium revenues in various financial instruments, generating investment income. The company also offers various discounts and incentives, which help attract and retain customers, ultimately contributing to higher policy sales and retention rates. Strategic partnerships with other entities, such as automotive companies and technology providers, enhance its market reach and service offerings, further solidifying its revenue streams.

Progressive Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals supported by solid profitability (TTM net margin 12.6%, EBIT margin 16.2%), conservative leverage (debt-to-equity 0.19), and strong cash conversion (FCF to net income 98%). Minor offsets include slightly declining gross margin, rising total debt trend, and some missing cash-flow efficiency detail.

Income Statement

Progressive has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM revenue growth rate of 3.4%, building on consistent annual growth. The company maintains healthy profitability with a TTM net profit margin of 12.6% and an EBIT margin of 16.2%, indicating efficient operations. However, the gross profit margin has slightly decreased from previous years, suggesting potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity is impressive at 46.8%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is stable, supporting financial stability. However, the slight increase in total debt over the years warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

Cash flow generation is strong with a TTM free cash flow to net income ratio of 98%, indicating effective cash conversion. The free cash flow growth rate of 3.5% is positive, though slightly lower than previous years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available, which limits a full assessment of cash flow efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	85.18B	75.34B	62.08B	49.59B	47.68B	42.64B
Gross Profit	22.40B	20.90B	11.76B	7.55B	10.34B	14.24B
EBITDA	14.09B	11.28B	5.46B	1.47B	4.77B	7.72B
Net Income	10.71B	8.48B	3.90B	722.00M	3.35B	5.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	121.53B	105.75B	88.69B	75.47B	71.13B	64.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	10.36B	76.09B	62.25B	49.72B	45.00B	42.11B
Total Debt	6.90B	6.89B	6.89B	6.39B	4.90B	5.40B
Total Liabilities	86.09B	80.15B	68.41B	59.57B	52.90B	47.06B
Stockholders Equity	35.45B	25.59B	20.28B	15.89B	18.23B	17.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	17.05B	14.83B	10.39B	6.56B	7.52B	6.68B
Operating Cash Flow	17.39B	15.12B	10.64B	6.85B	7.76B	6.91B
Investing Cash Flow	-14.37B	-13.75B	-10.84B	-7.96B	-3.12B	-6.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.98B	-1.32B	78.00M	1.13B	-4.52B	-938.80M

Progressive Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 208.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 208 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 208.64, below the 50-day MA of 211.75, and below the 200-day MA of 230.00, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PGR.

Progressive Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CB	80 Outperform	$121.83B	12.92	14.06%	1.22%	6.68%	-1.78%
PGR	76 Outperform	$121.97B	10.82	―	2.20%	18.35%	32.36%
CINF	76 Outperform	$25.10B	11.97	14.53%	2.10%	-0.63%	-30.68%
TRV	76 Outperform	$63.46B	10.37	20.70%	1.49%	6.75%	30.83%
ALL	74 Outperform	$52.07B	6.44	34.63%	1.91%	7.07%	100.42%
WRB	71 Outperform	$26.06B	15.41	19.67%	1.88%	11.08%	22.01%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Progressive Corporate Events

Progressive reports strong Q4 2025 results, announces CFO transition

On January 28, 2026, The Progressive Corporation reported its financial results for December and the quarter ended December 31, 2025, alongside announcing that long-time Chief Financial Officer John P. Sauerland intends to retire on July 3, 2026, with Chief Strategy Officer Andrew J. Quigg expected to assume the CFO role at that time. For December 2025, Progressive posted year-over-year growth in net premiums written and earned of 6%, while net income rose 22% to $1.15 billion and earnings per share available to common shareholders increased 22% to $1.95, underpinned by a swing to $168 million in pretax net realized gains on securities and a combined ratio of 87.1. For the fourth quarter, net premiums written grew 8% and net premiums earned 10% versus the prior year quarter, with net income up 25% to $2.95 billion and per-share earnings rising 25% to $5.02, as policies in force climbed 10% to 38.6 million, led by double-digit expansion in personal auto and special lines, signaling continued profitable growth and reinforcing the company’s competitive position in both personal and commercial insurance markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Hold with a $224.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.

Progressive Releases November 2025 Financial Results Update

On December 17, 2025, Progressive Corporation announced its financial results for November 2025, reflecting both performance for the month and year-to-date. This update offers stakeholders critical insights into the company’s financial health and operational progress leading up to the end of the year.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Hold with a $242.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.

Progressive Releases October 2025 Financial Results

On November 19, 2025, The Progressive Corporation released its financial results for the month and year-to-date periods ending October 31, 2025. This announcement provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial performance over the specified periods.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Sell with a $214.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.