Progressive (PGR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $144.22B
• Dividend Yield: 2%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.27M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 21.50%
• EPS Growth: 51.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 66,308
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 4.88
• Shares Outstanding: 586,208,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,230,988
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,266,972
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.15
• 1Y Price Target: $288.44
• Price Target Upside: 17.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $285.00 ▲(16.47% Upside)

Progressive's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the most significant factors driving the high overall score. The company's robust growth in premiums and market share, combined with efficient cash generation, position it well for future growth. Technical analysis presents some caution, but the low P/E ratio suggests potential undervaluation, adding to the stock's attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Earnings Potential

EPS expectations are rising, suggesting improved earnings potential.

Strategic Position

Progressive is in a strategically more dominant position compared with its past.

Valuation

PGR shares trade more cheaply than they did two decades ago, presenting a potential value opportunity.

Negative Factors

Competitive Pressure

The 234k personal auto PIF adds for the month indicate that competition is intensifying, and the available profitable opportunities are perhaps shrinking.

Growth Concerns

Decelerating growth is a concern as the industry faces intensifying competition.

Policy Growth

PIF growth appears to be weaker than expected.

Progressive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Progressive generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance premiums. The company collects premiums from policyholders, which serve as the main source of income. These premiums are determined based on factors such as the insured's driving history, vehicle type, and other risk factors. Progressive also earns investment income by investing the premiums it collects until claims are paid out. Additionally, the company has established partnerships with various agents and brokers, enhancing its distribution channels. Other revenue streams may include fees for additional services and products, as well as proceeds from reinsurance arrangements. Overall, Progressive's ability to leverage technology for pricing, claims processing, and customer engagement contributes significantly to its profitability.

Progressive Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Progressive's financial performance is strong, with robust profitability and growth metrics. The income statement shows solid revenue and profit growth, supported by healthy margins. The balance sheet is stable with prudent leverage management, and the cash flow statement highlights robust cash generation. The company is well-positioned for future growth, though it should continue to manage liabilities carefully.

Income Statement

Progressive's income statement demonstrates strong profitability and growth. The gross profit and net profit margins are robust, with net profit margin standing at 11.1% for TTM. The company showcases solid revenue growth, with a 25.4% increase from 2023 to 2024 and a 4.2% increase from 2024 to TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 14.0% and 14.7% respectively for TTM, indicating efficient operations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is modest at 0.24, and the equity ratio is 26.0% for TTM, suggesting a conservative approach to leverage. The return on equity is high at 30.1%, indicating effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits. However, the company should monitor its liabilities to ensure continued stability.

Cash Flow

Progressive's cash flow statement is impressive, with a strong free cash flow growth rate of 6.0% from 2023 to 2024 and a significant operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.84 for TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also strong at 1.80, indicating efficient cash generation and management. This financial strength provides flexibility for future investments and debt servicing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	78.51B	75.34B	62.08B	49.59B	47.68B	42.64B
Gross Profit	78.51B	75.34B	62.08B	49.59B	47.68B	42.64B
EBITDA	11.57B	11.28B	5.46B	1.47B	4.77B	7.72B
Net Income	8.72B	8.48B	3.90B	722.00M	3.35B	5.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	111.41B	105.75B	88.69B	75.47B	71.13B	64.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.28B	76.09B	62.25B	49.72B	45.00B	42.11B
Total Debt	6.89B	6.89B	6.89B	6.39B	4.90B	5.40B
Total Liabilities	82.45B	80.15B	68.41B	59.57B	52.90B	47.06B
Stockholders Equity	28.95B	25.59B	20.28B	15.89B	18.23B	17.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	15.73B	14.83B	10.39B	6.56B	7.52B	6.68B
Operating Cash Flow	16.03B	15.12B	10.64B	6.85B	7.76B	6.91B
Investing Cash Flow	-12.97B	-13.75B	-10.84B	-7.96B	-3.12B	-6.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.02B	-1.32B	78.00M	1.13B	-4.52B	-938.80M

Progressive Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 244.69
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 244.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 246.28, below the 50-day MA of 250.44, and below the 200-day MA of 259.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PGR.

Progressive Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WRB	83 Outperform	$26.95B	16.19	20.63%	2.22%	11.41%	15.32%
ALL	82 Outperform	$53.54B	9.50	27.33%	1.88%	9.81%	94.71%
TRV	81 Outperform	$60.99B	12.04	19.29%	1.56%	8.54%	43.51%
PGR	80 Outperform	$144.22B	13.74	37.29%	2.00%	21.50%	51.86%
CB	78 Outperform	$108.44B	12.11	14.10%	1.36%	6.74%	-4.05%
MKL	73 Outperform	$24.60B	11.66	13.23%	―	1.66%	8.51%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.82B	11.90	10.30%	3.72%	9.69%	0.80%

Progressive Corporate Events

Progressive Releases May 2025 Financial Results

On June 18, 2025, The Progressive Corporation released its financial results for the month and year-to-date periods ending May 31, 2025. The announcement provides insights into the company’s financial performance, which could impact its operations and stakeholder interests.

Progressive Releases April 2025 Financial Results

On May 21, 2025, The Progressive Corporation released its financial results for April 2025, detailing the company’s performance for both the month and the year-to-date period. This announcement provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and operational progress as of the end of April 2025.