Progressive (PGR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $133.27B
• Dividend Yield: 2.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: 18.35%
• EPS Growth: 32.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 66,308
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 3.95
• Shares Outstanding: 586,397,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,757,828
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,025,346
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.86
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.80
• 1Y Price Target: $261.04
• Price Target Upside: 16.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $260.00 ▲(15.63% Upside)

Progressive's strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights are the primary drivers of its solid stock score. While technical indicators suggest mixed momentum, the company's attractive valuation and strategic growth initiatives provide a favorable outlook. Challenges such as increased competition and potential margin compression are notable but manageable.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Performance

Progressive's strong financial performance with a low combined ratio and significant premium growth indicates efficient operations and market competitiveness, supporting long-term profitability.

Market Share Expansion

The expansion in market share reflects Progressive's effective strategies in customer acquisition and retention, which are crucial for sustaining revenue growth and competitive positioning.

Legislative Benefits in Florida

Legislative changes in Florida have reduced costs and litigation, enhancing profitability and providing a more favorable operating environment for Progressive in a key market.

Negative Factors

Florida Excess Profits Liability

The liability from excess profits in Florida could strain financial resources and impact profitability, necessitating careful management to mitigate long-term financial risks.

Competitive Pressure in Personal Auto

Rising competition in the Personal Auto segment may pressure margins and require increased spending to maintain market share, potentially affecting long-term profitability.

Potential Margin Compression

Margin compression from pricing adjustments could reduce profitability in the Personal Auto segment, impacting overall financial performance if not managed effectively.

Progressive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a leading American insurance company based in Mayfield Village, Ohio, primarily engaged in the provision of personal and commercial auto insurance, as well as other insurance products including home, renters, and specialty insurance. Founded in 1937, Progressive is known for its innovative pricing strategies, extensive use of technology, and a commitment to customer service. The company operates through various segments, including Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property, and is recognized for its direct-to-consumer approach and use of online platforms for policy sales.

How the Company Makes Money

Progressive generates revenue primarily through underwriting insurance premiums from its policyholders. The company earns money by collecting premiums for auto and other types of insurance, which are then used to pay for claims made by policyholders. A significant portion of Progressive's revenue comes from its personal auto insurance segment, which is bolstered by its competitive pricing and effective marketing strategies. Additionally, Progressive invests its premium revenues in various financial instruments, generating investment income. The company also offers various discounts and incentives, which help attract and retain customers, ultimately contributing to higher policy sales and retention rates. Strategic partnerships with other entities, such as automotive companies and technology providers, enhance its market reach and service offerings, further solidifying its revenue streams.

Progressive Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Progressive demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, efficient operations, and a solid balance sheet. The company effectively manages its leverage and generates substantial cash flow, though some metrics indicate areas for potential improvement.

Income Statement

Progressive has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM revenue growth rate of 3.4%, building on consistent annual growth. The company maintains healthy profitability with a TTM net profit margin of 12.6% and an EBIT margin of 16.2%, indicating efficient operations. However, the gross profit margin has slightly decreased from previous years, suggesting potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity is impressive at 46.8%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is stable, supporting financial stability. However, the slight increase in total debt over the years warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

Cash flow generation is strong with a TTM free cash flow to net income ratio of 98%, indicating effective cash conversion. The free cash flow growth rate of 3.5% is positive, though slightly lower than previous years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available, which limits a full assessment of cash flow efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	85.18B	75.34B	62.08B	49.59B	47.68B	42.64B
Gross Profit	22.40B	20.90B	11.76B	7.55B	10.34B	14.24B
EBITDA	14.09B	11.28B	5.46B	1.47B	4.77B	7.72B
Net Income	10.71B	8.48B	3.90B	722.00M	3.35B	5.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	121.53B	105.75B	88.69B	75.47B	71.13B	64.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	10.36B	76.09B	62.25B	49.72B	45.00B	42.11B
Total Debt	6.90B	6.89B	6.89B	6.39B	4.90B	5.40B
Total Liabilities	86.09B	80.15B	68.41B	59.57B	52.90B	47.06B
Stockholders Equity	35.45B	25.59B	20.28B	15.89B	18.23B	17.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	17.05B	14.83B	10.39B	6.56B	7.52B	6.68B
Operating Cash Flow	17.39B	15.12B	10.64B	6.85B	7.76B	6.91B
Investing Cash Flow	-14.37B	-13.75B	-10.84B	-7.96B	-3.12B	-6.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.98B	-1.32B	78.00M	1.13B	-4.52B	-938.80M

Progressive Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 224.86
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 224.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 227.70, above the 50-day MA of 223.39, and below the 200-day MA of 251.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PGR.

Progressive Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CB	80 Outperform	$123.17B	13.07	14.06%	1.22%	6.68%	-1.78%
PGR	78 Outperform	$133.27B	12.45	34.23%	2.20%	18.35%	32.36%
TRV	78 Outperform	$64.97B	11.45	19.81%	1.49%	6.75%	30.83%
CINF	76 Outperform	$26.07B	12.44	14.53%	2.04%	-0.63%	-30.68%
ALL	74 Outperform	$54.71B	6.77	34.63%	1.95%	7.07%	100.42%
WRB	73 Outperform	$26.26B	14.52	20.92%	1.91%	11.08%	22.01%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Progressive Corporate Events

Progressive Releases October 2025 Financial Results

On November 19, 2025, The Progressive Corporation released its financial results for the month and year-to-date periods ending October 31, 2025. This announcement provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial performance over the specified periods.

Progressive Releases August 2025 Financial Results

On September 17, 2025, The Progressive Corporation released its financial results for the month and year-to-date periods ending August 31, 2025. This announcement provides insights into the company’s financial performance, which could impact its operations and industry positioning.