Progressive (PGR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $142.41B
• Dividend Yield: 2%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.89M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: 19.58%
• EPS Growth: 51.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 66,308
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 4.88
• Shares Outstanding: 586,208,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,437,473
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,887,534
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.86
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.15
• 1Y Price Target: $294.57
• Price Target Upside: 20.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $287.00 ▲(16.99% Upside)

Progressive's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, particularly in terms of growth and operational efficiency. However, technical analysis indicates short-term bearish trends, and valuation is mixed with fair pricing but moderate dividend yield. Challenges in tariffs and competition add risk, but the company's strategic management and growth initiatives offer a positive long-term outlook.

Positive Factors

Growth Potential

Expanding growth drivers and a building TAM should lead to superior top-line growth rates.

Profit Margins

PGR's profit margins continue their trend of meaningful outperformance.

Technology Advantage

Competitive advantages of a low-cost platform with superior technology are paving the way to win increasing share of sizable bundled auto/home and commercial insurance segments.

Negative Factors

Competitive Environment

Progressive will be facing a more competitive industry for at least the remainder of the year.

Growth Deceleration

The company is heading into a more competitive environment, where YoY growth mathematically has to slow down.

Regulatory Challenges

Refunds are most likely coming in Florida due to reduced personal auto rates and exceeding the statutory profit limit.

Progressive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Progressive Corporation generates revenue primarily through the premiums collected from its insurance policies. These premiums are paid by policyholders in exchange for coverage against various risks, such as vehicle accidents, property damage, and liability claims. The company also earns investment income from the premiums collected, which are invested in a diverse portfolio of securities. Progressive differentiates itself through its direct sales model and extensive use of online platforms, enabling it to reduce costs and offer competitive pricing. Additionally, Progressive has established significant partnerships with other insurers to offer complementary products, such as homeowners insurance, which helps to broaden its customer base and revenue streams.

Progressive Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Progressive's financial performance is strong, highlighted by robust profitability and growth in its income statement, stable debt management on the balance sheet, and impressive cash flow generation. The company demonstrates solid revenue growth and efficient operations, positioning it well for future growth. However, vigilance over liabilities is recommended to sustain stability.

Income Statement

Progressive's income statement demonstrates strong profitability and growth. The gross profit and net profit margins are robust, with net profit margin standing at 11.1% for TTM. The company showcases solid revenue growth, with a 25.4% increase from 2023 to 2024 and a 4.2% increase from 2024 to TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 14.0% and 14.7% respectively for TTM, indicating efficient operations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is modest at 0.24, and the equity ratio is 26.0% for TTM, suggesting a conservative approach to leverage. The return on equity is high at 30.1%, indicating effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits. However, the company should monitor its liabilities to ensure continued stability.

Cash Flow

Progressive's cash flow statement is impressive, with a strong free cash flow growth rate of 6.0% from 2023 to 2024 and a significant operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.84 for TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also strong at 1.80, indicating efficient cash generation and management. This financial strength provides flexibility for future investments and debt servicing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	78.51B	75.34B	62.08B	49.59B	47.68B	42.64B
Gross Profit	78.51B	75.34B	62.08B	49.59B	47.68B	42.64B
EBITDA	11.57B	11.28B	5.46B	1.47B	4.77B	7.72B
Net Income	8.72B	8.48B	3.90B	722.00M	3.35B	5.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	111.41B	105.75B	88.69B	75.47B	71.13B	64.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.28B	76.09B	62.25B	49.72B	45.00B	42.11B
Total Debt	6.89B	6.89B	6.89B	6.39B	4.90B	5.40B
Total Liabilities	82.45B	80.15B	68.41B	59.57B	52.90B	47.06B
Stockholders Equity	28.95B	25.59B	20.28B	15.89B	18.23B	17.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	15.73B	14.83B	10.39B	6.56B	7.52B	6.68B
Operating Cash Flow	16.03B	15.12B	10.64B	6.85B	7.76B	6.91B
Investing Cash Flow	-12.97B	-13.75B	-10.84B	-7.96B	-3.12B	-6.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.02B	-1.32B	78.00M	1.13B	-4.52B	-938.80M

Progressive Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 245.31
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 245.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 244.84, below the 50-day MA of 258.31, and below the 200-day MA of 259.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PGR.

Progressive Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WRB	82 Outperform	$26.57B	15.95	20.63%	2.25%	11.40%	15.32%
TRV	78 Outperform	$60.24B	11.83	19.29%	1.60%	8.54%	43.51%
ALL	77 Outperform	$55.08B	9.83	27.33%	1.87%	9.81%	94.71%
CB	74 Outperform	$106.72B	11.81	14.10%	1.37%	6.74%	-4.05%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$17.02B	11.60	9.79%	3.95%	10.61%	2.06%
PGR	66 Neutral	$142.41B	13.68	37.29%	2.00%	19.58%	51.72%
MKL	66 Neutral	$24.53B	11.73	13.23%	―	1.66%	8.51%

Progressive Corporate Events

Progressive Releases May 2025 Financial Results

On June 18, 2025, The Progressive Corporation released its financial results for the month and year-to-date periods ending May 31, 2025. The announcement provides insights into the company’s financial performance, which could impact its operations and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Buy with a $235.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.

Progressive Releases April 2025 Financial Results

On May 21, 2025, The Progressive Corporation released its financial results for April 2025, detailing the company’s performance for both the month and the year-to-date period. This announcement provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and operational progress as of the end of April 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Buy with a $235.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.

Progressive Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting, Approves Key Decisions

On May 9, 2025, The Progressive Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where 511,221,365 common shares were represented. During the meeting, shareholders elected eleven directors, approved the executive compensation program, and ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, the Board of Directors renewed the authorization to repurchase up to 25 million common shares and declared a quarterly dividend of ten cents per share, payable on July 11, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Buy with a $235.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.