The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
NYSE:PGR
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Progressive
(NYSE:PGR)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$221.00
▲(9.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is driven mainly by strong financial performance (rapid revenue growth, much improved margins, and robust free cash flow) and supportive valuation (low P/E with high dividend yield). Offsetting these positives are balance-sheet risk signals in the TTM leverage/equity figures and weaker technical momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Top-line Growth & Scale
Progressive’s near-doubling of revenue from 2021 to 2025 and $89.4B TTM demonstrates durable scale in personal, commercial and specialty P&C. Large premium volume supports diversified risk pooling, ongoing investment in distribution and claims infrastructure, and stronger bargaining power with partners over a multi-quarter horizon.
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet Leverage Spike
A sharp TTM deterioration in capitalization materially increases financial risk: elevated leverage can amplify underwriting volatility, reduce capital buffers for catastrophes, and artificially boost ROE. If persistent, this weaker equity base limits strategic flexibility and raises the probability of costly capital actions over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Top-line Growth & Scale
Progressive’s near-doubling of revenue from 2021 to 2025 and $89.4B TTM demonstrates durable scale in personal, commercial and specialty P&C. Large premium volume supports diversified risk pooling, ongoing investment in distribution and claims infrastructure, and stronger bargaining power with partners over a multi-quarter horizon.
Read all positive factors
Progressive Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Premiums
Shows the total premiums earned minus reinsurance costs, reflecting the company’s ability to generate revenue from its core insurance business.
Shows the total premiums earned minus reinsurance costs, reflecting the company’s ability to generate revenue from its core insurance business.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyProgressive (PGR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$119.20B
Dividend Yield2.2%
Average Volume (3M)2.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.3
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth13.89%
EPS Growth32.56%
CountryUS
Employees66,308
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)19.72
Shares Outstanding584,336,500
10 Day Avg. Volume2,756,723
30 Day Avg. Volume2,611,065
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.35
Price to Book (P/B)4.40
Price to Sales (P/S)1.52
P/FCF Ratio7.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$229.94Price Target Upside13.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)16.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$89.14B
Progressive Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the...
How the Company Makes Money
Progressive makes money primarily through (1) insurance underwriting and (2) investment income on its invested assets. Underwriting revenue comes from premiums collected on policies (most notably personal auto and commercial auto). From these prem...
Progressive Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a very strong 2025 characterized by exceptional growth and profitability: ~ $9B net premiums written, ~3.7M new policies, comprehensive income near $13B, comprehensive ROE ~40%, and investment portfolio returns of 7.33%. Management reinforced disciplined capital and investment policies (variable dividend of $13.50/share, targeted leverage <30%, conservative investment guidelines) while pursuing growth via higher operating leverage and strategic initiatives (Three Horizons, product diversification, AI/UBI). Notable challenges were acknowledged but comparatively smaller in scale: Florida rate cuts and a $1.2B policyholder credit, softer personal-line premium growth in parts of the year, trucking headwinds, and areas of BI severity to watch. Overall, the positives (substantial growth, industry-leading returns, strong investment performance, and active capital returns) outweigh the highlighted risks and operational headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Premium and Policy Growth
Added almost $9 billion in net premiums written in 2025 and nearly 3.7 million additional policies in force; personal vehicles PIF grew ~12% (almost 3.5 million policies), equating to ~5.5 million more vehicles insured vs year-end 2024. Management estimates roughly +2 percentage points of U.S. private passenger auto market share year-over-year, to ~18.5% market share.
Negative Updates
Florida Market Pressure and Policyholder Credit
Florida rate environment prompted multiple rate reductions (three rate cuts in the past year) and contributed to a policyholder credit charge that grew to $1.2 billion by year-end 2025; management continues to monitor combined ratio and may take further new-business rate decreases if needed.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Premium and Policy Growth
Added almost $9 billion in net premiums written in 2025 and nearly 3.7 million additional policies in force; personal vehicles PIF grew ~12% (almost 3.5 million policies), equating to ~5.5 million more vehicles insured vs year-end 2024. Management estimates roughly +2 percentage points of U.S. private passenger auto market share year-over-year, to ~18.5% market share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call reiterated clear capital and operating guidance: Progressive will “grow as fast as we can” while targeting a combined ratio ≤96 (2025 was below 90), pursue higher operating leverage (regulators approved up to 3.5:1 premiums-to-surplus; enterprise moved closer to ~3 from a five‑year average of 2.8, freeing ~$1.6B in 2025), maintain a contingent capital buffer sized to a 1‑in‑200‑year modeled event, and keep financial leverage prudent (public guideline: debt/total capital <30%). Key 2025 metrics underpinning that guidance included ~ $9B of net premiums written, ~3.7M incremental policies in force (personal vehicles PIF +12% / ~3.5M; ~5.5M more vehicles insured vs YE‑2024), ~2 points of private‑passenger market share gain to ~18.5%, nearly $13B of comprehensive income and a ~40% comprehensive ROE, and strong investment results (portfolio ~ $95–100B, ~95% fixed income / <5% equities, year‑end duration ≈3.5 years, average credit AA‑, 2025 portfolio return 7.33% with ~ $5B after‑tax contribution). Capital‑allocation levers highlighted include a variable annual dividend ($13.50/share paid in Jan 2026 from ~ $13B at the holding company, leaving ~ $5B), continued selective share repurchases (board authorization 25M shares), optional deployment to M&A or investment risk, and a preference for liquidity and conservatism to preserve flexibility.Progressive Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 89.42B | 87.64B | 75.34B | 62.08B | 49.59B | 47.68B |
| Gross Profit | 25.44B | 25.83B | 20.90B | 11.76B | 7.55B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 15.07B | 14.81B | 11.28B | 5.46B | 1.47B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 11.56B | 11.31B | 8.48B | 3.90B | 722.00M | 3.35B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 122.21B | 123.04B | 105.75B | 88.69B | 75.47B | 71.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.29B | 19.84B | 76.09B | 62.25B | 49.72B | 45.00B |
| Total Debt | 8.39B | 6.90B | 6.89B | 6.89B | 6.39B | 4.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 90.17B | 92.72B | 80.15B | 68.41B | 59.57B | 52.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 32.04B | 30.32B | 25.59B | 20.28B | 15.89B | 18.23B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.42B | 17.20B | 14.83B | 10.39B | 6.56B | 7.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.77B | 17.55B | 15.12B | 10.64B | 6.85B | 7.76B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.55B | -14.53B | -13.75B | -10.84B | -7.96B | -3.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.25B | -3.04B | -1.32B | 78.00M | 1.13B | -4.52B |
Progressive Technical Analysis
Positive
202.58
Price Trends
200.65
Positive
204.38
Negative
212.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.26
Negative
55.40
Neutral
82.20
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 202.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 199.67, above the 50-day MA of 200.65, and below the 200-day MA of 212.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.20 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PGR.
Progressive Risk Analysis
Progressive disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Progressive reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Progressive Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $56.94B | 5.47 | 42.71% | 1.91% | 4.40% | 209.62% | |
82 Outperform | $65.07B | 9.17 | 24.14% | 1.49% | 4.12% | 83.05% | |
80 Outperform | $25.93B | 22.22 | 17.98% | 2.10% | 17.87% | 90.86% | |
78 Outperform | $128.12B | 13.86 | 15.65% | 1.22% | 8.26% | 35.89% | |
77 Outperform | $25.60B | 12.62 | 19.48% | 1.88% | 6.61% | 9.14% | |
74 Outperform | $119.20B | 10.30 | 35.45% | 2.20% | 13.89% | 32.56% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
PGR
Progressive
202.87
-65.35
-24.36%
CB
Chubb
330.13
41.92
14.54%
ALL
Allstate
224.58
20.48
10.03%
CINF
Cincinnati Financial
167.85
21.05
14.34%
TRV
Travelers Companies
305.52
36.08
13.39%
WRB
W. R. Berkley Corporation
68.52
-3.12
-4.35%
Progressive Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
Progressive Names New CFO and Extends Capital Returns
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 8, 2026, Progressive’s board elected Andrew J. Quigg, currently Chief Strategy and Finance Management Officer and formerly Chief Strategy Officer since July 2018, to become vice president and chief financial officer effective July 4, ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Progressive Issues $1.5 Billion in New Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
On March 23, 2026, The Progressive Corporation entered into an underwriting agreement with Goldman Sachs Co. LLC and TD Securities (USA) LLC to issue $500 million of 4.60% senior notes due 2031 and $1 billion of 5.15% senior notes due 2036. The t...
Financial Disclosures
Progressive Releases February 2026 Financial Performance Update
Neutral
Mar 18, 2026
On March 18, 2026, The Progressive Corporation reported that it had released financial results for the company and its consolidated subsidiaries covering the month and year-to-date periods ended February 28, 2026. The disclosure of these results p...
Financial Disclosures
Progressive Reports January 2026 Financial Performance Update
Neutral
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, The Progressive Corporation reported financial results for itself and its consolidated subsidiaries covering the month ended January 31, 2026. The release provides investors and analysts with an updated snapshot of the insure...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.