Progressive (PGR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $128.43B
• Dividend Yield: 2.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.44M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 18.35%
• EPS Growth: 32.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 66,308
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 3.95
• Shares Outstanding: 586,208,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,401,018
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,440,943
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.86
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.10
• 1Y Price Target: $265.38
• Price Target Upside: 25.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $244.00 ▲(15.14% Upside)

Progressive's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, which highlight robust growth and market share gains. However, bearish technical indicators and potential challenges such as declining policy life expectancy and tariff impacts slightly offset these strengths. The company's attractive valuation further supports its investment appeal.

Positive Factors

Market Share Growth

Progressive's significant increase in premiums and policies in force indicates a strong market position and competitive advantage in the insurance sector.

Strong Profitability

High profitability margins suggest efficient operations and a sustainable business model, supporting long-term financial health.

Effective Marketing Strategies

Increased investment in marketing supports growth initiatives, enhancing brand visibility and customer acquisition, which are crucial for long-term success.

Negative Factors

Policy Life Expectancy Decline

A decline in policy life expectancy can impact customer retention and long-term revenue stability, posing a challenge to sustainable growth.

Potential Refund Obligations

Potential refund obligations in Florida could affect profitability and cash flow, creating financial uncertainty and impacting future earnings.

Tariff Impact on Pricing

Tariff-related pricing uncertainties can disrupt cost structures and pricing strategies, affecting long-term profitability and market competitiveness.

Progressive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Progressive Corporation (PGR) is one of the largest insurance providers in the United States, primarily focusing on personal and commercial auto insurance. Founded in 1937, the company operates through various segments, including Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Progressive is known for its innovative use of technology and data analytics to provide competitive pricing and enhance customer experience, offering products such as auto, motorcycle, boat, and renters insurance, as well as various insurance-related services.

How the Company Makes Money

Progressive generates revenue primarily through the sale of insurance premiums. The company collects premiums from policyholders, which serve as the main source of income. These premiums are determined based on factors such as the insured's driving history, vehicle type, and other risk factors. Progressive also earns investment income by investing the premiums it collects until claims are paid out. Additionally, the company has established partnerships with various agents and brokers, enhancing its distribution channels. Other revenue streams may include fees for additional services and products, as well as proceeds from reinsurance arrangements. Overall, Progressive's ability to leverage technology for pricing, claims processing, and customer engagement contributes significantly to its profitability.

Progressive Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Progressive demonstrates robust financial performance with strong revenue growth, high profitability, and efficient cash flow management. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage and high return on equity, although there have been some fluctuations in equity ratios. The company's financial health is well-positioned for future growth, with potential risks being manageable given the current metrics.

Income Statement

Progressive shows strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 4.93% and a consistent upward trajectory over the past years. The company maintains high profitability with a gross profit margin of 81.65% and a net profit margin of 12.66% in the TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 16.28% and 16.64%, respectively, indicating efficient operations. However, the net profit margin has shown some volatility in previous years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21 in the TTM, indicating low leverage. Return on equity is impressive at 36.50%, showcasing strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 28.23%, suggesting a stable capital structure. However, the company has experienced fluctuations in equity ratios over the years.

Cash Flow

Progressive's cash flow is strong, with a TTM free cash flow growth rate of 4.70%. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 98.05%, indicating efficient cash conversion. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available, but the consistent growth in free cash flow suggests effective cash management. The company has shown resilience in maintaining positive cash flow growth despite industry challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	82.39B	75.34B	62.08B	49.59B	47.68B	42.64B
Gross Profit	47.61B	20.90B	62.08B	49.59B	47.68B	42.64B
EBITDA	13.71B	11.28B	5.46B	1.47B	4.77B	7.72B
Net Income	10.43B	8.48B	3.90B	722.00M	3.35B	5.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	115.48B	105.75B	88.69B	75.47B	71.13B	64.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	10.78B	76.09B	62.25B	49.72B	45.00B	42.11B
Total Debt	6.89B	6.89B	6.89B	6.39B	4.90B	5.40B
Total Liabilities	82.88B	80.15B	68.41B	59.57B	52.90B	47.06B
Stockholders Equity	32.60B	25.59B	20.28B	15.89B	18.23B	17.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.47B	14.83B	10.39B	6.56B	7.52B	6.68B
Operating Cash Flow	16.80B	15.12B	10.64B	6.85B	7.76B	6.91B
Investing Cash Flow	-13.74B	-13.75B	-10.84B	-7.96B	-3.12B	-6.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.02B	-1.32B	78.00M	1.13B	-4.52B	-938.80M

Progressive Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 211.91
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 211.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 231.37, below the 50-day MA of 239.75, and below the 200-day MA of 258.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.49 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PGR.

Progressive Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRV	―	$59.81B	10.54	19.81%	1.60%	6.75%	30.83%
CB	―	$112.41B	11.77	14.06%	1.36%	6.42%	―
WRB	―	$27.54B	15.24	20.92%	1.78%	11.07%	22.01%
PGR	―	$128.43B	12.01	―	2.31%	18.35%	32.30%
ALL	―	$50.29B	8.97	27.33%	2.05%	9.81%	94.71%
MKL	―	$23.25B	11.02	13.23%	―	1.66%	8.51%
Sector *	―	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Progressive Corporate Events

Progressive Releases August 2025 Financial Results

On September 17, 2025, The Progressive Corporation released its financial results for the month and year-to-date periods ending August 31, 2025. This announcement provides insights into the company’s financial performance, which could impact its operations and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Hold with a $250.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.

Progressive Releases July 2025 Financial Results

On August 20, 2025, The Progressive Corporation released its financial results for the month and year-to-date periods ending July 31, 2025. The announcement provides insights into the company’s financial performance, which may impact its operations and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (PGR) stock is a Hold with a $265.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Progressive stock, see the PGR Stock Forecast page.

Progressive Corporation’s Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Profitability

The latest earnings call from The Progressive Corporation conveyed a positive sentiment, highlighting substantial growth and profitability. The company showcased impressive market share gains and effective pricing strategies, despite facing challenges such as a decline in policy life expectancy and potential refunds in Florida. Overall, the sentiment reflected a robust performance with a strategic focus on maintaining competitive pricing and growth.