Progressive (PGR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $165.79B
• Dividend Yield: 1.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: 20.74%
• EPS Growth: 51.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 66,308
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 87
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 3.92
• Shares Outstanding: 586,236,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,409,839
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,600,018
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 19.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $302.56
• Price Target Upside: 6.98% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

Progressive's strong financial performance, highlighted by revenue growth and robust cash flow, underpins its solid stock score. The recent earnings call adds a positive outlook with record premium growth and strategic advancements. However, technical indicators suggest caution, and valuation metrics show the stock is fairly priced. Potential risks from tariff impacts on margins and policy retention issues should be monitored.

Positive Factors

Customer Growth

Progressive announced March 2025 results, adding a net 572k new personal auto customers—the “growthiest” month in its history on a nominal basis and the best March in its history on a percentage basis.

Market Position

Progressive is much better positioned than peers on managing underwriting profit and growth despite current tariffs and inflation uncertainties.

Valuation

The policycount growth at Progressive is expected to be ample to support the current valuation, making any perceived weakness an attractive buying opportunity.

Negative Factors

Earnings Impact

Catastrophe losses were about $120mn higher than forecast, negatively impacting earnings.

Growth Forecast

Forecasted growth is expected to materially decelerate in the second half of 2025 and beyond, which reduces some underwriting/investment income.

Stock Performance

The company is over-earning, which has been a major argument from bearish investors.

Progressive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Progressive makes money primarily through the underwriting and selling of insurance policies. The company's key revenue streams include premiums collected from policyholders and investment income generated from the reserves held to cover future claims. Progressive's auto insurance segment is the primary driver of revenue, benefiting from its large customer base and competitive pricing strategies. Additionally, the company earns through its diversified portfolio of products, including homeowners and commercial insurance. Significant partnerships with independent agents and financial institutions also facilitate a broader market reach, contributing to its earnings by expanding its customer base and enhancing distribution capabilities. Progressive's focus on technology and data analytics allows it to refine pricing models and reduce claims costs, further supporting its profitability.

Progressive Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Progressive shows strong financial performance with substantial revenue growth, robust cash flow generation, and a stable balance sheet with low leverage. However, there are concerns about margin volatility and liabilities.

Income Statement

Progressive has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase from $38.997 billion in 2019 to $62.082 billion in 2023, a 59.2% growth. The net profit margin improved from 10.18% in 2019 to 6.29% in 2023, despite a dip in 2022. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have been volatile, with a notable improvement in 2023. Overall, the company’s revenue trajectory and profitability indicate strong financial health, although the volatility in margins suggests areas for improvement.

Balance Sheet

Progressive's balance sheet shows a robust equity base, with stockholders' equity growing from $13.673 billion in 2019 to $20.277 billion in 2023. The debt-to-equity ratio decreased over time, reflecting reduced leverage, which is a positive sign of financial stability. The equity ratio has been stable, indicating a balanced approach towards asset financing. While the low leverage is a strength, the relatively high liabilities to assets ratio could pose a potential risk.

Cash Flow

The company's cash flow has been strong with consistent positive free cash flow, peaking at $10.391 billion in 2023, representing a substantial growth from $5.898 billion in 2019. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The company’s ability to sustain and grow its free cash flow reinforces its financial resilience.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
8.76B	62.08B	49.59B	47.68B	42.64B
	Gross Profit
8.76B	62.07B	49.59B	47.68B	42.63B
	EBIT
0.00	5.17B	922.10M	4.21B	7.17B
	EBITDA
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Net Income Common Stockholders
8.48B	3.90B	721.50M	3.35B	5.70B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
76.09B	84.90M	8.95B	45.00B	42.11B
	Total Assets
105.75B	88.69B	70.23B	71.13B	64.10B
	Total Debt
6.89B	6.89B	6.53B	4.90B	5.40B
	Net Debt
6.75B	6.80B	6.30B	4.71B	5.32B
	Total Liabilities
80.15B	68.41B	54.34B	52.90B	47.06B
	Stockholders Equity
25.59B	20.28B	15.89B	18.23B	17.04B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
14.83B	10.39B	6.56B	7.52B	6.68B
	Operating Cash Flow
15.12B	10.64B	6.85B	7.76B	6.91B
	Investing Cash Flow
-13.75B	-10.84B	-7.96B	-3.12B	-6.12B
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.32B	78.00M	1.13B	-4.52B	-938.80M

Progressive Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 282.81
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 282.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 269.66, above the 50-day MA of 275.09, and above the 200-day MA of 250.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PGR.

Progressive Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WRB	82 Outperform	$28.83B	16.85	20.73%	0.44%	11.38%	14.76%
CB	77 Outperform	$115.13B	13.83	13.40%	1.60%	9.09%	-7.55%
PGR	76 Outperform	$165.79B	19.04	36.98%	1.73%	20.74%	51.73%
ALL	74 Outperform	$52.78B	11.73	19.88%	1.89%	11.49%	219.86%
MKL	73 Outperform	$22.52B	8.90	10.94%	―	-6.46%	-26.71%
TRV	71 Outperform	$60.59B	14.56	16.05%	1.57%	9.60%	36.89%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.61B	9.78	8.01%	16985.69%	12.73%	-4.58%

Progressive Corporate Events

Progressive Appoints Carl Joyce as New VP and CAO

On March 7, 2025, Progressive Corporation appointed Carl G. Joyce as the new Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, succeeding Mariann Wojtkun Marshall. Mr. Joyce, who has been with the company for 13 years and served as Director of Financial Reporting – GAAP for over five years, will receive compensation and benefits aligned with his senior role, potentially impacting the company’s financial leadership and strategic direction.