Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.52B
• Dividend Yield: 4.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.29
• Revenue Growth: -3.94%
• EPS Growth: 64.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 96
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 72,875,490
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,835,660
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,083,072
• PEG Ratio: 3.21
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.26
• P/FCF Ratio: 55.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.24
• 1Y Price Target: $21.00
• Price Target Upside: 0.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.67
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $204.76M

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $23.00 ▲(10.31% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/10/26

The score is driven primarily by improved balance sheet strength and restored profitability, partially offset by weaker free cash flow conversion and uneven revenue. Technicals are constructive but look overbought, while valuation is supported by the ~4.9% yield but limited by a ~23x P/E. Raised FFO guidance is a positive catalyst, though merger-related legal overhang adds some risk.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Leverage fell materially in 2025 to roughly 0.12 debt-to-equity, giving the company greater financial flexibility to fund redevelopments, withstand rent cycles, and pursue opportunistic deals without straining liquidity. A stronger balance sheet reduces refinancing and covenant risks over the medium term.

Sustained Profitability and Margins

Operating profitability recovered strongly after 2022, with high gross and net margins in 2025 reflecting improving rent yields and cost control. Durable margin improvement supports cash flow generation and reinvestment capacity, stabilizing returns across property cycles.

High Occupancy and Development Pipeline

Very high leased occupancy and active leasing (49 leases, 164k sq ft) plus a pre‑leased industrial building signal strong local demand. The Komohana development adds stable NOI and diversification into industrial, enhancing long‑term revenue visibility and pipeline-driven internal growth.

Negative Factors

Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion

Despite positive operating cash flow, free cash flow conversion is thin and plunged in 2025, indicating higher capex, tenant improvement costs, or working capital outlays. Persistently weak FCF relative to earnings constrains dividend funding, deleverages ability, and limits reinvestment without external capital.

Choppy Revenue Trends

Top‑line performance has been inconsistent across recent years, reflecting exposure to tenant turnover and localized market dynamics. Continued revenue volatility complicates forecasting, makes NOI/FFO less predictable, and raises execution risk for redevelopment-driven growth assumptions.

Merger Legal Overhang

Ongoing merger‑related litigation and disclosure demands can delay closing, increase legal and settlement costs, and divert management focus. Protracted disputes may alter deal economics or timing, creating execution risk and uncertainty about post‑transaction capital and strategic plans.

Alexander & Baldwin Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. (A&B) is Hawai'i's premier commercial real estate company and the largest owner of grocery-anchored, neighborhood shopping centers in the state. A&B owns, operates and manages approximately 3.9 million square feet of commercial space in Hawai'i, including 22 retail centers, ten industrial assets and four office properties, as well as 154 acres of ground leases. These core assets comprise nearly 72% of A&B's total assets. A&B's non-core assets include renewable energy generation facilities, approximately 27,000 acres of agricultural and conservation land and a vertically integrated paving business. A&B is achieving its strategic objective of becoming a Hawai'i-focused commercial real estate company by expanding and strengthening its Hawai'i CRE portfolio and monetizing non-core assets. Over its 150-year history, A&B has evolved with the state's economy and played a leadership role in the development of the agricultural, transportation, tourism, construction, residential and commercial real estate industries.

How the Company Makes Money

ALEX primarily makes money by generating recurring rental income from leasing space in its commercial real estate portfolio, especially grocery-anchored retail centers. Tenants typically pay base rent under multi-year leases, and many leases also include contractual rent escalators and/or percentage rent provisions tied to tenant sales (where applicable). In addition to base rent, the company can earn reimbursed property operating revenues (commonly through lease structures where tenants reimburse some or most property-level expenses such as common-area maintenance, insurance, and real estate taxes), which are recorded as revenue and offset by corresponding property operating expenses. ALEX also generates income from ground leases and other real estate interests where it collects lease payments while the tenant controls or operates the improvements. Beyond stabilized leasing, the company may earn incremental revenue and value through redevelopment and re-tenanting efforts (e.g., improving occupancy, releasing space at higher market rents, and adding tenants that increase center traffic), though the specific timing and amounts depend on project execution and market conditions. Other potential contributors to earnings can include ancillary property income (such as fees, signage, or other tenant charges) and, when applicable, gains or losses from property dispositions; if disposition activity occurs, it can affect results in the period of sale but is not typically the core recurring revenue driver compared with rent and recoveries.

Alexander & Baldwin Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and operating margins recovered strongly versus 2022 and leverage improved materially in 2025 (very low debt-to-equity). Offsetting strengths, revenue has been inconsistent and free cash flow conversion weakened materially in the latest period, making cash generation quality a key risk.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved materially versus the 2022 loss, with 2023–2025 producing solid net income and strong operating profitability (2025 net margin ~31% and healthy gross margin ~46%). However, growth has been inconsistent: revenue declined in 2023 and again in 2025 after a modest rebound in 2024, suggesting a choppy top-line trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet strengthened meaningfully in 2025, with leverage dropping to low levels (debt-to-equity ~0.12 versus ~0.46–0.50 in 2021–2024). Equity remains substantial relative to the asset base, and returns on equity turned positive and improved versus 2022. The main watch item is the year-to-year leverage volatility, which implies capital structure can shift meaningfully.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, with operating cash flow exceeding net income in 2025 (about 1.14x), but free cash flow is relatively thin versus earnings (about 34% of net income in 2025). Free cash flow also declined sharply in 2025 (down ~40% year over year), indicating weaker cash conversion and/or higher cash outlays despite reported profitability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	206.67M	236.64M	208.84M	230.55M	254.00M
Gross Profit	96.11M	107.65M	102.31M	97.63M	119.10M
EBITDA	86.24M	126.01M	100.60M	78.83M	141.20M
Net Income	64.67M	60.54M	29.80M	-50.66M	35.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.66B	1.67B	1.65B	1.79B	1.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.30M	33.44M	13.52M	33.30M	65.40M
Total Debt	505.93M	474.84M	465.06M	477.10M	537.30M
Total Liabilities	672.34M	666.89M	643.23M	751.60M	813.20M
Stockholders Equity	987.20M	1.00B	1.00B	1.04B	1.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	27.28M	47.21M	35.90M	12.30M	93.90M
Operating Cash Flow	79.51M	97.99M	67.10M	34.00M	124.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-45.51M	-16.11M	7.10M	44.60M	96.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-56.14M	-61.96M	-94.90M	-115.20M	-207.10M

Alexander & Baldwin Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALEX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.80, above the 50-day MA of 20.77, and above the 200-day MA of 18.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALEX.

Alexander & Baldwin Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAFE	70 Outperform	$1.04B	8.57	4.81%	5.13%	1.30%	-6.14%
ALEX	69 Neutral	$1.52B	23.21	6.44%	4.97%	-3.94%	64.29%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ESRT	61 Neutral	$887.02M	23.09	4.56%	2.16%	0.45%	-24.85%
GNL	61 Neutral	$2.01B	-8.52	-12.68%	10.29%	-28.94%	-28.24%
AAT	57 Neutral	$1.15B	16.06	5.29%	7.31%	5.95%	5.06%

Alexander & Baldwin Corporate Events

Alexander & Baldwin Shareholders Approve Merger with Tropic

Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. held a special meeting of shareholders on March 9, 2026, to vote on proposals related to its previously announced merger agreement with Tropic Purchaser LLC and its wholly owned subsidiary, Tropic Merger Sub LLC, under which Alexander & Baldwin will merge with and into Tropic Merger Sub. Shareholders representing 79.50% of outstanding common stock formed a quorum and decisively approved the merger agreement, an advisory vote on merger-related executive compensation, and a potential adjournment option, clearing a key governance hurdle and positioning the transaction to close on or about March 12, 2026, subject to remaining conditions in the merger agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALEX) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alexander & Baldwin stock, see the ALEX Stock Forecast page.

Alexander & Baldwin Issues Supplemental Proxy Amid Merger Lawsuits

Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. has agreed to merge with Tropic Merger Sub LLC, an entity controlled by a joint venture of MW Group, Blackstone Real Estate–affiliated funds and DivcoWest, under a deal announced on December 8, 2025, that will see Alexander & Baldwin cease to exist as an independent company. Ahead of a March 9, 2026 virtual shareholder meeting to vote on the transaction, the company disclosed that as of February 24, 2026 it faces four shareholder lawsuits and sixteen demand letters alleging deficiencies in its proxy disclosures, and, while denying all allegations and insisting no additional disclosure is legally required, it is voluntarily supplementing its definitive proxy statement with added detail on merger negotiations, management projections and valuation analyses to reduce litigation risk and avoid delays to closing.

The supplemental proxy information expands on the board’s late‑November 2025 negotiations over termination fees and the lack of specific performance rights, clarifies that the investor group has not discussed post‑closing employment or equity terms with management, and provides more granular financial forecasts and comparable company and transaction data used by BofA Securities in its fairness analysis. By enhancing transparency without conceding any wrongdoing, Alexander & Baldwin aims to reassure shareholders and keep the high‑profile buyout on track, signaling a determination to complete the sale despite legal challenges from some investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALEX) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alexander & Baldwin stock, see the ALEX Stock Forecast page.