AdaptHealth (AHCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.35B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.45M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: -0.23%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,500
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 135,914,810
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,640,083
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,451,605
• PEG Ratio: 0.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.16
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.49
• 1Y Price Target: $12.38
• Price Target Upside: 24.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.47B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▲(11.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is anchored by strong cash flow generation despite volatile and recently weaker reported financial performance (sharp TTM revenue decline and a return to net loss) and still-elevated leverage. Technicals are weak with the stock trading below key moving averages, while the latest earnings call guidance provides a partial offset via expected 2026 growth, margin improvement, and free cash flow supported by the capitated contract (despite near-term ramp headwinds).

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Consistent TTM operating cash flow ($601.8M) and positive free cash flow ($219.4M) provide durable internal funding for capex, working capital and debt reduction. Reliable cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and supports strategic investments and contract ramping over the medium term.

Large capitated contract win

The industry-leading capitated agreement creates a structurally more predictable, recurring revenue stream and margin leverage as onboarding scales. Successful early execution and a large addressable population support durable organic growth and operating-margin expansion as per-management ramp expectations.

Operational improvements and scale

Faster referral-to-setup, higher clinical adherence and growing digital engagement indicate sustainable improvements in unit economics, patient retention and throughput. Operational scale and digitization lower per-patient costs and support long-term margin sustainability across core therapy lines.

Negative Factors

Revenue and earnings volatility

Sharp TTM revenue decline and a swing to net loss highlight structural volatility in underlying demand, payor dynamics and disposals. Persistent earnings unpredictability undermines long-term planning, complicates reinvestment and makes forecasted margin and cash targets harder to rely upon.

Elevated leverage remains an overhang

Debt materially above equity and multi-year leverage metrics constrain financial flexibility. Even with recent reduction efforts, higher leverage increases interest sensitivity, limits strategic optionality and raises refinancing risk if cash generation or margins stumble during contract ramp or cyclical weakness.

Diabetes segment weakness and impairment

Declining CGM starts, lower reimbursement per patient and a sizeable goodwill impairment signal slower structural recovery in Diabetes. Persistent weakness demands continued investment or restructuring, pressuring margins and raising the risk that this segment will underdeliver versus company-wide growth assumptions.

AdaptHealth Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AdaptHealth Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides home medical equipment (HME), medical supplies, and home and related services in the United States. The company provides sleep therapy equipment, supplies, and related services, such as CPAP and bi-PAP services to individuals suffering from obstructive sleep apnea; medical devices and supplies, including continuous glucose monitors and insulin pumps to patients for the treatment of diabetes; HME to patients discharged from acute care and other facilities; oxygen and related chronic therapy services in the home; and other HME devices and supplies on behalf of chronically ill patients with wound care, urological, incontinence, ostomy, and nutritional supply needs. It serves beneficiaries of Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurance payors. AdaptHealth Corp. is headquartered in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

AdaptHealth primarily makes money by providing home medical equipment, consumable supplies, and related services that are reimbursed by third-party payors. A major component of its revenue model is ongoing resupply and recurring utilization tied to chronic therapies: for example, sleep therapy patients require periodic replacement of masks, cushions, filters, and tubing, and diabetes patients require regular supplies associated with glucose monitoring. The company also earns revenue from respiratory therapy through the provision of oxygen and other respiratory equipment along with associated service and support; depending on payer rules and the product category, reimbursement may be structured as capped rental/recurring payments over time and/or as sales of equipment and supplies. Across categories, revenue is generated through (1) dispensing equipment, (2) recurring shipments of consumable supplies, and (3) patient setup, education, compliance/support, and logistics services that enable continued therapy use and reimbursement. Key factors that contribute to earnings include payor reimbursement rates and policies (including Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurers), the company’s ability to document medical necessity and patient compliance where required (especially in sleep therapy), patient retention and resupply fulfillment execution, and referral relationships with healthcare providers and hospital systems. Any specific material partnership terms or customer concentration details not publicly specified are null.

AdaptHealth Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash generation is a key strength (TTM operating cash flow $601.8M; free cash flow $219.4M). However, operating results are unstable: TTM revenue fell 36.3% and the company swung to a net loss (-$72.9M) with gross margin compression, while leverage remains an overhang (debt-to-equity ~1.18 in TTM).

Income Statement

Results are volatile. Revenue declined sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (down 36.3%), and the company moved to a net loss (-$72.9M) after being profitable in 2024. Profitability is mixed: EBITDA margin in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) remains solid (~22.8%) and EBIT margin improved versus 2024, but gross margin compressed meaningfully versus 2024 and net results have swung between profits (2021, 2022, 2024) and large losses (2020, 2023, TTM).

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains a key overhang, with debt running above equity (debt-to-equity ~1.08–1.57 historically, ~1.18 in TTM), though it has improved from the 2023 peak. Equity is sizable ($1.53B in TTM), providing some balance sheet support, but returns on equity are modest in profitable years and have been deeply negative in loss years, highlighting earnings instability against a leveraged capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength. Operating cash flow was strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) ($601.8M) and free cash flow remained healthy ($219.4M), with a large step-up in free cash flow growth versus the prior period. The main drawback is that cash conversion versus accounting earnings is inconsistent across years (and TTM shows a net loss despite positive free cash flow), suggesting earnings quality and working-capital/timing effects should be monitored.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.24B	3.26B	3.20B	2.97B	2.45B
Gross Profit	568.56M	681.09M	681.77M	417.43M	445.61M
EBITDA	503.64M	628.02M	-171.09M	630.76M	544.21M
Net Income	-70.79M	90.42M	-678.89M	69.32M	156.18M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.32B	4.49B	4.51B	5.22B	5.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	106.14M	109.75M	77.13M	46.27M	149.63M
Total Debt	1.90B	2.13B	2.29B	2.33B	2.37B
Total Liabilities	2.79B	2.91B	3.04B	3.06B	3.18B
Stockholders Equity	1.52B	1.57B	1.46B	2.15B	2.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	219.38M	235.78M	143.20M	-17.56M	72.37M
Operating Cash Flow	601.77M	541.84M	480.67M	373.87M	275.68M
Investing Cash Flow	-303.19M	-310.27M	-357.28M	-411.17M	-1.82B
Financing Cash Flow	-302.19M	-198.95M	-92.53M	-66.05M	1.60B

AdaptHealth Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.91
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AHCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.77, below the 50-day MA of 10.10, and above the 200-day MA of 9.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AHCO.

AdaptHealth Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UFPT	69 Neutral	$1.47B	25.04	17.36%	―	29.47%	23.24%
AHCO	56 Neutral	$1.35B	―	-4.63%	―	-0.23%	―
CNMD	56 Neutral	$1.11B	26.78	4.68%	2.02%	4.69%	-51.57%
AXGN	56 Neutral	$1.60B	-95.98	-13.44%	―	18.72%	85.77%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
IART	47 Neutral	$696.76M	-1.85	-39.90%	―	4.99%	-7151.40%
TNDM	45 Neutral	$1.70B	-7.22	-141.98%	―	17.87%	-57.03%