Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (AGM)
NYSE:AGM
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Federal Agricultural
(NYSE:AGM)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$164.00
▲(0.56% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
AGM’s score is held back primarily by high leverage and weaker recent cash conversion, alongside clearly bearish technicals. Offsetting these are an attractive valuation (low P/E and strong dividend yield) and a generally positive earnings-call narrative pointing to continued growth, albeit with elevated credit-cost and expense risks.
Positive Factors
Stable GSE-backed secondary market role
As a government-sponsored enterprise focused on agricultural lending, Farmer Mac benefits from a mission-aligned, structural role that creates durable fee and spread income. Its guarantor/securitizer model and lender partnerships sustain steady loan flow and long-term relevance in rural credit markets.
Negative Factors
Very high financial leverage
Extremely elevated leverage magnifies sensitivity to funding cost changes and asset-quality deterioration, limiting balance-sheet flexibility. High leverage that drives ROE also increases downside risk during credit stress or higher market funding costs, constraining strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable GSE-backed secondary market role
As a government-sponsored enterprise focused on agricultural lending, Farmer Mac benefits from a mission-aligned, structural role that creates durable fee and spread income. Its guarantor/securitizer model and lender partnerships sustain steady loan flow and long-term relevance in rural credit markets.
Read all positive factors
Federal Agricultural (AGM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.71B
Dividend Yield3.4%
Average Volume (3M)114.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.2
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth27.36%
EPS Growth12.55%
CountryUS
Employees191
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.66
Shares Outstanding9,325,900
10 Day Avg. Volume81,285
30 Day Avg. Volume114,836
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio10.95
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)1.45
P/FCF Ratio23.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap18.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue24.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit81.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda123.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$215.00Price Target Upside31.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)18.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$460.27M
Federal Agricultural Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through four segments: Farm & Ranch, USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Guarantees, Rural Utili...
How the Company Makes Money
Farmer Mac generates revenue primarily through the securitization and sale of agricultural loans, the fees it earns from guaranteeing loans, and the interest income from its investment portfolio. The company acts as a guarantor for loans made by a...
Federal Agricultural Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial picture: record revenue, record net effective spread, record net new volume and growing, diversified portfolios alongside strengthened core capital and ongoing shareholder returns. These positives were tempered by concentrated credit losses in a small number of borrowers, elevated provisions and higher operating expenses tied to growth and investments. Management emphasized the issues were borrower-specific (not systemic), expects continued demand and pipeline momentum in 2026, and plans to use risk-transfer tools and capital management to support further growth. On balance, the call highlighted meaningful progress and resilience with manageable, localized credit challenges.Positive Updates
Record Revenue
Revenue reached $410 million in 2025, a 13% increase versus prior year, driven by diversified portfolio growth and higher-yielding assets.
Negative Updates
Elevated Credit Provisions
Provision for credit losses totaled $32.9 million in 2025; $19.6 million was attributable to individually significant credit deteriorations in Corporate AgFinance and Broadband Infrastructure, and roughly $9.6 million was related to outstanding business volume growth.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue
Revenue reached $410 million in 2025, a 13% increase versus prior year, driven by diversified portfolio growth and higher-yielding assets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Farmer Mac expects continued volume and spread-driven revenue growth into 2026, noting pipelines and momentum that drove record 2025 results — $3.8 billion of net new business volume and $33.4 billion total outstanding business volume, record revenue of $410 million (+13% YoY), and a record net effective spread of $383 million (Q4 net effective spread $101.4 million, 122 bps). They said loan purchase growth should continue (Farm & Ranch up ~$1.0 billion; Corporate AgFinance +$63 million) and infrastructure finance remains strong (year-end $11.8 billion, +$2.8 billion; Power & Utilities +$1.0 billion; Renewable Energy +$1.0 billion; Broadband +$700 million, ~90% data-center related), with AgVantage reversing runoff (+$500 million in Q4 after closing a $4.3 billion facility) and USDA forecasting a 5% increase in real-estate mortgage transactions in 2026. On capital and shareholder returns they raised the quarterly dividend $0.10 to $1.60, returned $78 million in 2025 (including $12.9 million of repurchases in Q4) and have a $50 million repurchase authorization with $37.1 million remaining; core capital rose $204 million to $1.7 billion (66% or $678 million above statutory requirement) and Tier 1 capital was 13.3%. They warned credit seasoning may keep credit costs elevated versus legacy portfolios (2025 provision for credit losses $32.9 million, including $19.6 million of individual deteriorations; charge-offs $20.9 million), noted allowance for losses $39.7 million (17% of nonaccrual assets), projected a meaningful reduction in 90+ day delinquencies in H1 2026 from recent property sales, expect modest expense growth as operating expenses rose 14% in 2025 while targeting a ~30% efficiency ratio, and plan to support growth with organic capital, selective issuances and risk-transfer tools.Federal Agricultural Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.32B | 1.62B | 1.42B | 755.02M | 447.70M |
| Gross Profit | 388.56M | 363.69M | 350.20M | 308.31M | 245.88M |
| EBITDA | 255.72M | 258.10M | 253.10M | 225.68M | 172.59M |
| Net Income | 207.39M | 207.19M | 200.00M | 178.14M | 136.09M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 35.51B | 31.32B | 29.52B | 27.33B | 25.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.48B | 12.48B | 11.34B | 13.05B | 11.07B |
| Total Debt | 30.82B | 29.30B | 27.69B | 25.65B | 23.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 33.79B | 29.84B | 28.11B | 26.06B | 23.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.72B | 1.49B | 1.41B | 1.27B | 1.21B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 80.06M | 607.37M | 375.80M | 809.27M | 436.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 80.06M | 612.65M | 375.80M | 809.27M | 436.41M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.81B | -1.68B | -1.96B | -3.04B | -1.10B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.64B | 1.21B | 1.61B | 2.19B | 534.63M |
Federal Agricultural Technical Analysis
Positive
163.08
Price Trends
157.50
Positive
164.61
Negative
169.69
Negative
Market Momentum
1.32
Negative
66.68
Neutral
94.46
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 163.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 148.84, above the 50-day MA of 157.50, and below the 200-day MA of 169.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.46 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGM.
Federal Agricultural Risk Analysis
Federal Agricultural disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Federal Agricultural reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Federal Agricultural Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $1.26B | 3.73 | 15.80% | 5.20% | 9.32% | 29.40% | |
71 Outperform | $3.77B | 12.62 | 24.45% | ― | 21.10% | 76.12% | |
68 Neutral | $2.85B | 6.09 | 53.92% | 10.18% | -2.51% | 17.47% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
61 Neutral | $1.80B | 16.10 | 9.47% | ― | 9.68% | 94.85% | |
54 Neutral | $1.71B | 9.24 | 12.81% | 3.40% | 27.36% | 12.55% | |
| ― | $2.33B | -2.49 | 0.96% | ― | ― | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
AGM
Federal Agricultural
163.08
-1.99
-1.21%
WU
Western Union
9.16
0.39
4.46%
LC
LendingClub
15.85
6.47
68.98%
ENVA
Enova International
153.84
62.78
68.94%
FINV
FinVolution Group
5.11
-2.10
-29.13%
LU
Lufax Holding
1.94
-0.49
-20.16%
Federal Agricultural Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Farmer Mac Updates Investor Presentation, Emphasizes Regulatory Caution
Neutral
Mar 18, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Farmer Mac disclosed that it had posted a new slide presentation for equity investors on its corporate website, intended for use in upcoming meetings with analysts and investors. The materials, made available as an investor reso...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Farmer Mac Board Enhances Executive Pay and Incentives
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Farmer Mac’s board committee approved retroactive base salary increases for senior executives effective January 1, 2026, alongside sizable grants of stock appreciation rights and restricted stock units to key officers and d...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Farmer Mac Schedules Investor Day Webcast on Strategy
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Farmer Mac announced the date and time of an upcoming Investor Day webcast that will focus on the company’s growth opportunities and strategic priorities. The event is positioned as a key forum for management to outline its...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Farmer Mac Posts Record 2025 Results, Raises Dividend
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Farmer Mac reported strong results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, including record outstanding business volume of $33.4 billion after $3.8 billion in net growth, $10.5 billion in liquidity and lending capacity p...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Farmer Mac Schedules Conference Call on Year-End Results
Neutral
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the scheduled date and time for a conference call to discuss its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, signaling a forthcoming detailed update on the company’s re...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Farmer Mac Updates Bylaws to Modernize Corporate Governance
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Farmer Mac’s board of directors amended and restated the company’s by-laws, updating provisions governing officers, shareholder meetings, board operations, share certification, and corporate finance authorities. Th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.