Federal Agricultural (AGM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.68B
• Dividend Yield: 3.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 112.61K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 27.36%
• EPS Growth: 12.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.66
• Shares Outstanding: 9,325,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 137,232
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 112,609
• PEG Ratio: 10.95
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 18.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 24.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 81.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 123.72
• 1Y Price Target: $215.00
• Price Target Upside: 32.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 19.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $450.72M

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $155.00 ▼(-4.46% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/23/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/23/26

The score is held back primarily by elevated balance-sheet leverage and signs of decelerating fundamentals (lower 2025 revenue and weaker cash generation), alongside bearish technicals with the stock trading below major moving averages. These are partly offset by attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield) and a generally positive earnings-call outlook featuring record results, continued growth expectations, and increased capital returns despite localized credit-cost pressure.

Positive Factors

Record Revenue & Volume

Sustained record revenue and industry-leading net new volume demonstrate durable demand and scale in Farmer Mac’s core markets. High outstanding volume supports recurring net interest income and provides operational leverage that can sustain earnings power and reinvestment capacity over coming quarters.

Portfolio Diversification

Material expansion into infrastructure, renewable energy and broadband increases exposure to higher-spread, growing markets, reducing single-segment dependency. This structural diversification should support spread resilience and provide multiple sources of origination and fee/interest income over the next several quarters.

Capital Strength & Returns

A sizable capital buffer and rising core capital give the company capacity to absorb losses, support growth, and continue dividends/repurchases. Strong capital metrics combined with active risk-transfer and securitization tools underpin durable financial flexibility and shareholder return policy execution.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Extremely high leverage leaves equity thin relative to assets, amplifying sensitivity to rising funding costs and credit losses. This structural funding intensity reduces financial flexibility, increases refinancing and capital-raise risk, and can meaningfully impair resilience during adverse credit cycles.

Volatile Cash Generation

Material year-to-year swings in operating and free cash flow indicate cash conversion is driven by portfolio and working-capital dynamics. Unreliable cash generation constrains the firm’s ability to consistently fund loan purchases, dividends and buybacks without relying on external financing or capital actions.

Elevated, Concentrated Credit Costs

Significant provisions and charge-offs concentrated in a few borrowers reveal idiosyncratic credit vulnerability and seasoning risk in newer portfolios. If similar borrower-level stresses continue or broader seasoning occurs, credit costs could remain elevated and pressure earnings and capital over the medium term.

Federal Agricultural Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through four segments: Farm & Ranch, USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Guarantees, Rural Utilities, and Institutional Credit. The Farm & Ranch segment purchases and retains eligible mortgage loans that are secured by first liens on agricultural real estate; securitizes eligible mortgage loans, and guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest on securities representing interests in or obligations secured by pools of mortgage loans; and issues long-term standby purchase commitments (LTSPC) on designated eligible mortgage loans. The USDA Guarantees segment purchases portions of certain agricultural and rural development loans guaranteed by the USDA. The Rural Utilities segment purchases and guarantees securities that are backed by loans for electric or telecommunications facilities by lenders organized as cooperatives to borrowers; and purchases eligible rural utilities loans and guarantees of securities backed by those loans, as well as LTSPCs for pools of eligible rural utilities loans. The Institutional Credit segment guarantees and purchases general obligations of lenders and other financial institutions that are secured by pools of loans eligible under the Farmer Mac's Farm & Ranch, USDA Guarantees, or Rural Utilities lines of business. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.

How the Company Makes Money

AGM generates revenue primarily through the sale of agricultural inputs such as pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers, and seeds. The company has established key revenue streams from direct sales to farmers, agribusinesses, and distributors. Additionally, AGM engages in strategic partnerships with research institutions and agricultural technology firms to develop innovative products, enhancing its market position and expanding its customer base. The company also benefits from government grants and subsidies aimed at promoting sustainable farming practices, which further contribute to its earnings.

Federal Agricultural Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability remains solid (about 11% net margin in 2025), but the most recent year shows a slowdown (revenue down ~12%) and cash flow fell sharply versus 2024. The biggest risk is the highly leveraged balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~18x), which increases sensitivity to funding costs and credit conditions.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded sharply from 2021–2024 (including a major step-up in 2022–2023), but the latest year shows a modest decline (2025 down ~12%). Profitability is still solid for a credit-services model, with net margin ~11% in 2025, though it has compressed from the stronger 2021–2023 period. Overall: good earnings power with a noticeable slowdown and margin pressure in the most recent year.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is highly leveraged: debt is extremely large relative to equity (debt-to-equity consistently ~18–23x across the period, ~18x in 2025). While returns on equity remain healthy (~11% in 2025 after ~14% in 2022–2024), the combination of thin equity and large borrowings increases sensitivity to credit cycles, funding costs, and asset-quality swings. Strength is consistent equity profitability; weakness is the elevated leverage profile.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is volatile. Operating and free cash flow were negative in 2020, strong in 2021–2024, then fell sharply in 2025 (down materially versus 2024). While recent free cash flow still roughly matches net income, the year-to-year swing suggests working-capital/portfolio dynamics and funding conditions can materially impact cash conversion. Strength is generally positive cash flow over the last several years; weakness is the steep 2025 drop and overall variability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.32B	1.62B	1.42B	755.02M	447.70M
Gross Profit	388.56M	363.69M	350.20M	308.31M	245.88M
EBITDA	255.72M	258.10M	253.10M	225.68M	172.59M
Net Income	207.39M	207.19M	200.00M	178.14M	136.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	35.51B	31.32B	29.52B	27.33B	25.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	18.48B	12.48B	11.34B	13.05B	11.07B
Total Debt	30.82B	29.30B	27.69B	25.65B	23.70B
Total Liabilities	33.79B	29.84B	28.11B	26.06B	23.91B
Stockholders Equity	1.72B	1.49B	1.41B	1.27B	1.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	80.06M	607.37M	375.80M	809.27M	436.41M
Operating Cash Flow	80.06M	612.65M	375.80M	809.27M	436.41M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.81B	-1.68B	-1.96B	-3.04B	-1.10B
Financing Cash Flow	3.64B	1.21B	1.61B	2.19B	534.63M

Federal Agricultural Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 162.24
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 162.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 170.15, below the 50-day MA of 173.14, and below the 200-day MA of 176.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGM.

Federal Agricultural Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ENVA	71 Outperform	$3.45B	12.47	24.34%	―	21.10%	76.12%
FINV	71 Outperform	$1.43B	3.85	17.73%	5.20%	9.32%	29.40%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
WU	64 Neutral	$2.93B	6.14	51.86%	10.18%	-2.51%	17.47%
LC	61 Neutral	$1.73B	13.94	9.55%	―	9.68%	94.85%
AGM	57 Neutral	$1.68B	9.53	12.93%	3.40%	27.36%	12.55%
LU	52 Neutral	$2.34B	-3.52	―	―	―	―

Federal Agricultural Corporate Events

Farmer Mac Posts Record 2025 Results, Raises Dividend

On February 19, 2026, Farmer Mac reported strong results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, including record outstanding business volume of $33.4 billion after $3.8 billion in net growth, $10.5 billion in liquidity and lending capacity provided to rural lenders, and a 10% year-over-year increase in net interest income to $390.7 million. Net effective spread rose 13% to a record $383.0 million, core earnings reached a record $182.9 million, or $16.66 per diluted share (up 7% year-over-year), and total core capital stood at $1.7 billion with a Tier 1 Capital Ratio of 13.3%, while some isolated borrower-specific credit events weighed on quarterly results.

Farmer Mac’s board underscored confidence in the company’s earnings power and capital base by raising the quarterly common dividend 7% to $1.60 per share on February 18, 2026, marking the fifteenth consecutive annual increase, with payment set for March 31, 2026 to common shareholders of record on March 16, 2026. The board also declared routine quarterly dividends on all five series of preferred stock for the period from January 17 to April 17, 2026, payable April 17, 2026 to holders of record on April 1, 2026, reinforcing the company’s signal of stable capital returns to both common and preferred investors despite recent, contained credit issues.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Buy with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Farmer Mac Schedules Conference Call on Year-End Results

On February 5, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the scheduled date and time for a conference call to discuss its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, signaling a forthcoming detailed update on the company’s recent financial performance. The announcement, which clarifies that the related materials are furnished rather than filed for securities law purposes, underscores the company’s adherence to regulatory disclosure practices while preparing investors and other stakeholders for an upcoming review of operating and financial conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Buy with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Farmer Mac Updates Bylaws to Modernize Corporate Governance

On January 27, 2026, Farmer Mac’s board of directors amended and restated the company’s by-laws, updating provisions governing officers, shareholder meetings, board operations, share certification, and corporate finance authorities. The revisions formally authorize a board‑approved Treasurer role, permit shareholder and board meetings via remote communication with electronic notices and voting procedures, clarify quorum and committee governance standards, refine treatment of uncertificated shares, and modernize language on loans and indebtedness, collectively streamlining corporate governance and administrative processes for the agricultural mortgage provider.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Buy with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Farmer Mac Appoints New CFO Matthew M. Pullins

On December 8, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the appointment of Matthew M. Pullins as the new Executive Vice President – Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, effective December 11, 2025. Mr. Pullins, who previously held senior roles at PNC Financial Services Group, will replace the interim principal financial officer, Gregory N. Ramsey, who will continue as Vice President – Chief Accounting Officer. This strategic appointment is expected to strengthen Farmer Mac’s financial leadership and support its market positioning. Mr. Pullins’ compensation package includes a base salary of $550,000, short-term and long-term incentives, and a one-time restricted stock award, reflecting the company’s commitment to attracting top talent.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Buy with a $195.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Farmer Mac Completes $313.5 Million Securitization

On December 3, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the completion of a $313.5 million securitization of agricultural mortgage loans. This move is likely to enhance Farmer Mac’s liquidity and strengthen its position in the agricultural finance market, potentially benefiting stakeholders by improving the company’s operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $180.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.