Federal Agricultural (AGM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.11B
• Dividend Yield: 3.04%
• Average Volume (3M): 158.40K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 25.81%
• EPS Growth: -1.60%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 4.19
• Shares Outstanding: 9,402,081
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 189,547
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 158,402
• PEG Ratio: -6.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 13.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.56
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 80.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 28.39
• 1Y Price Target: $225.00
• Price Target Upside: 13.83% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $227.00 ▲(14.84%Upside)

Federal Agricultural demonstrates strong financial performance and strategic growth, particularly in infrastructure and renewable energy segments, driving the high stock score. Despite high leverage, the company's robust capital position and liquidity provide a cushion against potential market challenges. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, though caution is advised due to overbought conditions. Valuation metrics and corporate events further support the company's stable outlook.

Federal Agricultural Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through four segments: Farm & Ranch, USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Guarantees, Rural Utilities, and Institutional Credit. The Farm & Ranch segment purchases and retains eligible mortgage loans that are secured by first liens on agricultural real estate; securitizes eligible mortgage loans, and guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest on securities representing interests in or obligations secured by pools of mortgage loans; and issues long-term standby purchase commitments (LTSPC) on designated eligible mortgage loans. The USDA Guarantees segment purchases portions of certain agricultural and rural development loans guaranteed by the USDA. The Rural Utilities segment purchases and guarantees securities that are backed by loans for electric or telecommunications facilities by lenders organized as cooperatives to borrowers; and purchases eligible rural utilities loans and guarantees of securities backed by those loans, as well as LTSPCs for pools of eligible rural utilities loans. The Institutional Credit segment guarantees and purchases general obligations of lenders and other financial institutions that are secured by pools of loans eligible under the Farmer Mac's Farm & Ranch, USDA Guarantees, or Rural Utilities lines of business. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.

How the Company Makes Money

Farmer Mac makes money through a combination of interest income, guarantee fees, and investment income. The company earns interest income from both its loan portfolio and the securities it holds. By purchasing agricultural loans from lenders and issuing debt securities, Farmer Mac provides liquidity to the primary agricultural lending market. In addition to interest income, the company collects guarantee fees for backing securities that are supported by agricultural mortgages, ensuring their creditworthiness and attracting investors. Significant partnerships with agricultural lenders and other financial institutions enhance its ability to generate revenue and expand its reach within the agricultural finance market.

Federal Agricultural Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Federal Agricultural shows strong revenue growth and solid profitability with a net profit margin of 12.64% and an EBIT margin of 15.77%. Despite high leverage indicated by a debt-to-equity ratio of 18.34, the company effectively uses equity with a ROE of 13.31%. Cash flow generation remains robust, though there's a recent decline in free cash flow growth rate.

Income Statement

Federal Agricultural has exhibited strong revenue growth with a consistent upward trajectory over the past few years. The TTM data shows a solid gross profit margin of 22.46% and a net profit margin of 12.64%. The EBIT margin stands at 15.77% while the EBITDA margin is 15.75%, indicating efficient cost management. Overall, the company's profitability and growth trends are commendable, supported by a robust financial performance in the credit services industry.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 18.34, indicating significant leverage, which could pose a risk in economic downturns. However, the return on equity (ROE) is strong at 13.31%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is low at 4.79%, suggesting the company's heavy reliance on debt financing. While the company is effectively generating returns, the high leverage warrants caution.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has decreased in the TTM period, with a negative growth rate compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.62, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.60, further demonstrating the company's ability to generate cash. Although cash flow metrics are sound, the recent decline in free cash flow growth rate suggests a need for careful cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.61B	1.62B	1.42B	755.02M	447.70M	519.84M
Gross Profit	360.84M	363.69M	350.20M	308.31M	245.88M	198.84M
EBITDA	252.98M	258.10M	253.10M	225.68M	172.59M	137.43M
Net Income	203.10M	207.19M	200.00M	178.14M	136.09M	108.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	31.80B	31.32B	29.52B	27.33B	25.15B	24.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.30B	7.00B	5.87B	5.49B	11.07B	11.84B
Total Debt	27.98B	27.37B	26.34B	24.47B	22.71B	23.17B
Total Liabilities	30.28B	29.84B	28.11B	26.06B	23.94B	23.36B
Stockholders Equity	1.53B	1.49B	1.41B	1.27B	1.20B	992.48M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	325.86M	607.37M	375.80M	809.27M	436.41M	-94.55M
Operating Cash Flow	329.49M	612.65M	375.80M	809.27M	436.41M	-94.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.50B	-1.68B	-1.96B	-3.04B	-1.10B	-1.74B
Financing Cash Flow	1.48B	1.21B	1.61B	2.19B	534.63M	2.26B

Federal Agricultural Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 197.67
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 197.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 189.69, above the 50-day MA of 184.17, and above the 200-day MA of 189.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGM.

Federal Agricultural Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FINV	84 Outperform	$2.42B	6.95	17.91%	2.90%	5.13%	25.93%
AGM	79 Outperform	$2.11B	12.22	13.51%	3.04%	25.81%	-1.60%
ENVA	78 Outperform	$2.82B	13.08	19.94%	―	24.47%	54.18%
LX	74 Outperform	$1.23B	6.88	12.60%	3.02%	7.53%	37.86%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$16.66B	11.44	9.71%	3.91%	11.61%	-10.70%
LC	57 Neutral	$1.37B	26.92	3.86%	―	5.72%	31.82%
LU	52 Neutral	$2.41B	―	-3.79%	4.55%	-38.81%	-425.73%

Federal Agricultural Corporate Events

Farmer Mac Completes $300.1 Million Loan Securitization

On June 11, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the completion of a $300.1 million securitization of agricultural mortgage loans. This move is expected to enhance Farmer Mac’s capacity to provide credit to the agricultural sector, potentially strengthening its market position and offering increased financial flexibility to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Federal Agricultural Enhances Governance with By-law Amendments

On May 15, 2025, Farmer Mac’s Board of Directors approved amendments to its by-laws, refining roles and responsibilities within the company, including clarifications on officer designations and committee oversight functions. These changes aim to enhance governance and operational efficiency, particularly in areas such as audit, business strategy, and risk management. Additionally, during its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on the same day, Farmer Mac elected ten directors, ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as its independent auditor for 2025, and approved executive compensation proposals, reflecting strong shareholder support for the company’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Farmer Mac Announces Quarterly Dividend for Shareholders

On May 14, 2025, the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, known as Farmer Mac, announced a quarterly dividend for its three classes of common stock and four classes of preferred stock. The dividends, payable in June and July 2025, reflect Farmer Mac’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders, indicating a stable financial position and potentially impacting investor confidence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Farmer Mac Reports Record Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 9, 2025, Farmer Mac announced its first quarter 2025 results, highlighting a record business volume of $29.8 billion. The company reported significant financial growth with a 5% year-over-year increase in net interest income to $90.9 million and an 8% rise in net effective spread to $90.0 million. Core earnings reached a record $46.0 million, marking a 6% growth from the previous year. Farmer Mac maintained a strong capital position, with core capital exceeding statutory requirements by 65% and a Tier 1 Capital Ratio of 13.9% as of March 31, 2025. These results reflect the strength of Farmer Mac’s long-term growth strategy and its ability to navigate market volatility, enhancing shareholder returns.

Farmer Mac Announces Q1 2025 Financial Results Call

On April 24, 2025, Farmer Mac announced a conference call to discuss its financial results for the fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic positioning in the agricultural finance sector.