Federal Agricultural (AGM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.88B
• Dividend Yield: 3.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 79.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: 27.36%
• EPS Growth: 12.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 4.52
• Shares Outstanding: 9,373,642
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 73,757
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 79,822
• PEG Ratio: 2.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 16.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 18.99
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 80.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 116.25
• 1Y Price Target: $219.00
• Price Target Upside: 23.68% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 17.58
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $401.22M

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $192.00 ▲(8.43% Upside)

The overall stock score of 70 reflects a balance of moderate financial health, reasonable valuation, and positive technical indicators. Strong earnings call highlights and recent corporate events further support the stock's potential, despite challenges in revenue growth and high leverage.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Generation

Strong free cash flow growth highlights AGM's ability to efficiently convert earnings into cash, supporting liquidity and investment capacity.

Strategic Leadership Appointment

The new CFO brings extensive experience in finance and strategic planning, potentially strengthening AGM's financial leadership and market positioning.

Renewable Energy Growth

Significant growth in renewable energy reflects AGM's strategic focus on sustainable sectors, enhancing long-term market opportunities and resilience.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially affecting AGM's ability to invest in growth or weather economic downturns.

Decline in Revenue Growth

A declining revenue growth rate suggests challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could impact AGM's market position and profitability.

Increased Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses may pressure margins and reduce profitability, necessitating careful cost management to sustain financial performance.

Federal Agricultural Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through four segments: Farm & Ranch, USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Guarantees, Rural Utilities, and Institutional Credit. The Farm & Ranch segment purchases and retains eligible mortgage loans that are secured by first liens on agricultural real estate; securitizes eligible mortgage loans, and guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest on securities representing interests in or obligations secured by pools of mortgage loans; and issues long-term standby purchase commitments (LTSPC) on designated eligible mortgage loans. The USDA Guarantees segment purchases portions of certain agricultural and rural development loans guaranteed by the USDA. The Rural Utilities segment purchases and guarantees securities that are backed by loans for electric or telecommunications facilities by lenders organized as cooperatives to borrowers; and purchases eligible rural utilities loans and guarantees of securities backed by those loans, as well as LTSPCs for pools of eligible rural utilities loans. The Institutional Credit segment guarantees and purchases general obligations of lenders and other financial institutions that are secured by pools of loans eligible under the Farmer Mac's Farm & Ranch, USDA Guarantees, or Rural Utilities lines of business. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.

How the Company Makes Money

AGM generates revenue primarily through the sale of agricultural inputs such as pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers, and seeds. The company has established key revenue streams from direct sales to farmers, agribusinesses, and distributors. Additionally, AGM engages in strategic partnerships with research institutions and agricultural technology firms to develop innovative products, enhancing its market position and expanding its customer base. The company also benefits from government grants and subsidies aimed at promoting sustainable farming practices, which further contribute to its earnings.

Federal Agricultural Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Federal Agricultural shows moderate financial health with stable profitability but faces challenges in revenue growth and high leverage. The company demonstrates strong cash flow generation, which is a positive sign for liquidity. However, the high debt levels could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a decline in revenue growth rate at -7.78% TTM, indicating a contraction in sales. Gross profit margin stands at 17.72% TTM, which is relatively low, and net profit margin is 13.04% TTM, showing moderate profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are both at 12.24% TTM, reflecting stable operational efficiency despite the revenue decline.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 17.31 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. Return on equity is 13.43% TTM, showing decent profitability from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is low, suggesting a heavy reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates strong free cash flow growth of 52.58% TTM, highlighting improved cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting efficient conversion of profits into cash. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.0, indicating potential issues in cash flow from operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.61B	1.62B	1.42B	755.02M	447.70M	519.84M
Gross Profit	381.52M	363.69M	350.20M	308.31M	245.88M	198.84M
EBITDA	263.64M	258.10M	253.10M	225.68M	172.59M	137.43M
Net Income	216.00M	207.19M	200.00M	178.14M	136.09M	108.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.38B	31.32B	29.52B	27.33B	25.12B	24.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.52B	12.48B	11.34B	13.05B	11.07B	11.84B
Total Debt	31.29B	29.30B	27.69B	25.65B	23.70B	23.17B
Total Liabilities	31.69B	29.84B	28.11B	26.06B	23.91B	23.36B
Stockholders Equity	1.69B	1.49B	1.41B	1.27B	1.21B	992.48M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	344.18M	607.37M	375.80M	809.27M	436.41M	-94.55M
Operating Cash Flow	344.18M	612.65M	375.80M	809.27M	436.41M	-94.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.69B	-1.68B	-1.96B	-3.04B	-1.10B	-1.74B
Financing Cash Flow	2.41B	1.21B	1.61B	2.19B	534.63M	2.26B

Federal Agricultural Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 177.07
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 177.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 174.86, above the 50-day MA of 166.61, and below the 200-day MA of 177.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGM.

Federal Agricultural Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ENVA	71 Outperform	$4.06B	15.05	23.81%	―	21.10%	76.12%
FINV	71 Outperform	$1.31B	3.53	17.76%	5.35%	9.32%	29.40%
AGM	70 Outperform	$1.88B	10.08	13.72%	3.39%	27.36%	12.55%
LC	70 Outperform	$2.27B	22.11	7.40%	―	9.68%	94.85%
WU	69 Neutral	$3.04B	4.15	97.70%	9.58%	-2.51%	17.47%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
LU	52 Neutral	$2.35B	-3.50	―	―	―	―

Federal Agricultural Corporate Events

Farmer Mac Appoints New CFO Matthew M. Pullins

On December 8, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the appointment of Matthew M. Pullins as the new Executive Vice President – Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, effective December 11, 2025. Mr. Pullins, who previously held senior roles at PNC Financial Services Group, will replace the interim principal financial officer, Gregory N. Ramsey, who will continue as Vice President – Chief Accounting Officer. This strategic appointment is expected to strengthen Farmer Mac’s financial leadership and support its market positioning. Mr. Pullins’ compensation package includes a base salary of $550,000, short-term and long-term incentives, and a one-time restricted stock award, reflecting the company’s commitment to attracting top talent.

Farmer Mac Completes $313.5 Million Securitization

On December 3, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the completion of a $313.5 million securitization of agricultural mortgage loans. This move is likely to enhance Farmer Mac’s liquidity and strengthen its position in the agricultural finance market, potentially benefiting stakeholders by improving the company’s operational capabilities.

Farmer Mac Declares Quarterly Dividend for Shareholders

On November 5, 2025, the Board of Directors of the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, known as Farmer Mac, declared a quarterly dividend for its common and preferred stockholders. The dividends for the common stock amount to $1.50 per share, payable on December 31, 2025, while the dividends for the preferred stock vary by series and are payable on January 17, 2026. This announcement reflects Farmer Mac’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its shareholders and may impact investor sentiment and the company’s market positioning.

Farmer Mac Reports Strong Q3 Financial Results

On November 3, 2025, Farmer Mac reported its third-quarter financial results, highlighting a record net effective spread and core earnings. The company achieved a business volume growth surpassing $31 billion, with a 13% increase in net interest income and a 14% rise in net effective spread compared to the previous year. Farmer Mac maintained a strong capital position, exceeding statutory requirements by 75%, and issued $100 million of Tier 1 capital through a public offering. These results underscore Farmer Mac’s robust financial health and strategic agility in a dynamic market, benefiting stakeholders by ensuring continued support for rural infrastructure and agriculture.

President Trump Nominates Jeffrey Kaufmann to Farmer Mac’s board

On September 30, 2025, the White House nominated Jeffrey Kaufmann to the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation’s Board of Directors, replacing Chester Culver. Culver, who had rejoined the Board in May 2022, was informed that his position had ended effective immediately. His departure marks the end of his roles as chair of the Public Policy and Corporate Social Responsibility Committee and as a member of other key committees. Farmer Mac expressed gratitude for Culver’s contributions during his tenure.

President Trump Nominates Jeffrey Kaufmann to Farmer Mac’s board

On September 30, 2025, the White House nominated Jeffrey Kaufmann to the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation’s Board of Directors, replacing Chester Culver. Culver, who had rejoined the Board in May 2022, was informed that his position had ended effective immediately. His departure marks the end of his roles as chair of the Public Policy and Corporate Social Responsibility Committee and as a member of other key committees. Farmer Mac expressed gratitude for Culver’s contributions during his tenure.

Farmer Mac Appoints New President Amid Leadership Transition

On September 25, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the retirement of its CEO, Bradford T. Nordholm, effective March 31, 2027. Concurrently, Zachary N. Carpenter was appointed as the new President and Chief Operating Officer, with plans to succeed Nordholm as CEO by April 1, 2027. Carpenter, who has been with Farmer Mac since 2019, brings extensive experience from previous roles at CoBank, Goldman Sachs, and Johnson & Johnson. The transition is part of a strategic leadership change, with Carpenter’s compensation and employment terms outlined to ensure continuity and stability in Farmer Mac’s operations.

Farmer Mac Announces CEO Retirement and Successor

On September 25, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the planned retirement of its CEO, Bradford T. Nordholm, effective March 31, 2027. The company also appointed Zachary N. Carpenter as President and COO, who will succeed Nordholm as CEO, indicating a strategic leadership transition aimed at ensuring continuity and stability in its operations.

Farmer Mac Declares Quarterly Dividend for Series H

On September 10, 2025, Farmer Mac’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend for its 6.500% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series H, amounting to $0.2347222 per share. This dividend covers the period from August 25, 2025, to October 17, 2025, and will be payable on October 17, 2025, to shareholders of record as of October 1, 2025. This announcement follows a previous declaration of dividends on other classes of common and preferred stock on August 14, 2025, indicating Farmer Mac’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders.