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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (AGM)
NYSE:AGM
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Federal Agricultural (AGM) AI Stock Analysis

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AGM

Federal Agricultural

(NYSE:AGM)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$180.00
▲(9.81% Upside)
The overall stock score reflects a balance of moderate financial health and strong earnings call performance, offset by bearish technical indicators and high leverage. The stock's undervaluation and attractive dividend yield are positive factors, while the high debt levels and bearish technical trends pose risks.

Federal Agricultural (AGM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Federal Agricultural Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFederal Agricultural (AGM) is a leading company in the agricultural sector, specializing in the production and distribution of high-quality seeds, fertilizers, and crop protection products. With a focus on sustainable farming practices, AGM provides innovative solutions to farmers across various crops, including grains, fruits, and vegetables. The company also engages in research and development to enhance agricultural productivity and environmental stewardship.
How the Company Makes MoneyAGM generates revenue primarily through the sale of agricultural inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides. The company maintains a diverse product portfolio that caters to both conventional and organic farming markets, allowing it to tap into multiple customer segments. Key revenue streams include direct sales to farmers, partnerships with agricultural co-ops, and distribution agreements with retailers. Additionally, AGM invests in research and development to create proprietary products that command premium pricing. Strategic partnerships with agricultural technology firms also enable AGM to offer integrated solutions, further enhancing its revenue potential. Seasonal demand fluctuations, driven by planting and harvest cycles, significantly impact earnings, with peak sales typically occurring during the planting season.

Federal Agricultural Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 03, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Farmer Mac's strong financial performance, with record net effective spread and core earnings, significant growth in renewable energy and broadband segments, and a successful preferred stock issuance. However, challenges such as increased operating expenses and credit provisions were also noted. Despite these lowlights, the overall tone remained optimistic about continued growth and financial resilience.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Effective Spread and Core Earnings
Achieved a record net effective spread of $97.8 million and core earnings of $49.6 million for Q3 2025, with year-to-date figures reflecting double-digit year-over-year growth.
Outstanding Business Volume Growth
Surpassed $31 billion in outstanding business volume, with infrastructure finance contributing $600 million to reach $11 billion.
Preferred Stock Issuance Success
Issued $100 million of Series H preferred stock, improving the Tier 1 capital ratio to 13.9%.
Significant Growth in Renewable Energy and Broadband
Renewable energy segment doubled year-over-year to $2.3 billion, and broadband infrastructure doubled to $1.3 billion.
Strong Core Capital Increase
Core capital increased by $131 million to $1.7 billion, exceeding statutory requirements by $723 million.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating Expenses
Operating expenses increased due to headcount, technology investments, and higher transaction-related legal expenses.
Credit Provision and Charge-offs
A $7.4 million net provision to the total allowance for losses was recorded, along with a $4.4 million charge-off related to three different loans.
Modest Uptick in Delinquencies
A slight increase in 90-day delinquencies was noted, attributed to the seasonal impact of payment dates.
Company Guidance
During the third-quarter 2025 earnings call, Farmer Mac reported record net effective spread of $97.8 million and core earnings of $49.6 million, reflecting a year-to-date net effective spread and core earnings of $281 million and $143 million, respectively, demonstrating double-digit year-over-year growth. The company highlighted its $31 billion outstanding business volume and a successful preferred stock issuance, which bolstered its capital base and supported long-term growth objectives. Farmer Mac's strategy of diversifying its loan portfolio into sectors like renewable energy, broadband infrastructure, and corporate Ag finance has driven spread growth and is part of its competitive strategy to manage market volatility. The company maintained a disciplined efficiency ratio within its target average of 30% and reported a core return on equity slightly above 17%. Despite a $7.4 million net provision to the allowance for the quarter, Farmer Mac's overall credit quality remains stable, supported by strong asset quality metrics and diversified portfolio. The company also repurchased approximately 30,000 shares of Class C common stock for about $5 million, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder returns.

Federal Agricultural Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Federal Agricultural shows moderate financial health with stable profitability but faces challenges in revenue growth and high leverage. The company demonstrates strong cash flow generation, which is a positive sign for liquidity. However, the high debt levels could pose risks if not managed carefully.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The income statement shows a decline in revenue growth rate at -7.78% TTM, indicating a contraction in sales. Gross profit margin stands at 17.72% TTM, which is relatively low, and net profit margin is 13.04% TTM, showing moderate profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are both at 12.24% TTM, reflecting stable operational efficiency despite the revenue decline.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 17.31 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. Return on equity is 13.43% TTM, showing decent profitability from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is low, suggesting a heavy reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis indicates strong free cash flow growth of 52.58% TTM, highlighting improved cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting efficient conversion of profits into cash. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.0, indicating potential issues in cash flow from operations.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.48B1.62B1.42B755.02M447.70M519.84M
Gross Profit571.38M363.69M350.20M308.31M245.88M198.84M
EBITDA446.80M258.10M253.10M225.68M172.59M137.43M
Net Income216.00M207.19M200.00M178.14M136.09M108.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets33.38B31.32B29.52B27.33B25.15B24.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.58B7.00B5.87B13.05B11.07B11.84B
Total Debt29.20B29.30B27.69B25.65B23.70B23.17B
Total Liabilities31.69B29.84B28.11B26.06B23.94B23.36B
Stockholders Equity1.69B1.49B1.41B1.27B1.21B992.48M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow344.18M607.37M375.80M809.27M436.41M-94.55M
Operating Cash Flow344.18M612.65M375.80M809.27M436.41M-94.55M
Investing Cash Flow-2.69B-1.68B-1.96B-3.04B-1.10B-1.74B
Financing Cash Flow2.41B1.21B1.61B2.19B534.63M2.26B

Federal Agricultural Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price163.92
Price Trends
50DMA
173.86
Negative
100DMA
179.67
Negative
200DMA
182.73
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.94
Negative
RSI
48.99
Neutral
STOCH
59.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 163.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 161.33, below the 50-day MA of 173.86, and below the 200-day MA of 182.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AGM.

Federal Agricultural Risk Analysis

Federal Agricultural disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Federal Agricultural reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Federal Agricultural Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$3.17B11.2923.81%21.10%76.12%
76
Outperform
$1.50B3.9918.75%4.60%8.41%34.76%
69
Neutral
$2.08B20.437.40%9.68%94.85%
68
Neutral
$1.73B9.2413.72%3.64%27.36%12.55%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
65
Neutral
$2.82B3.8597.70%10.33%-2.51%17.47%
52
Neutral
$2.43B
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AGM
Federal Agricultural
163.92
-43.18
-20.85%
WU
Western Union
9.10
-0.50
-5.21%
LC
LendingClub
18.15
2.66
17.17%
ENVA
Enova International
124.86
21.85
21.21%
FINV
FinVolution Group
6.02
0.06
1.01%
LU
Lufax Holding
2.83
0.30
11.86%

Federal Agricultural Corporate Events

Farmer Mac’s Earnings Call: Record Growth and Optimism
Nov 5, 2025

Farmer Mac’s recent earnings call painted an optimistic picture of its financial health, marked by record net effective spread and core earnings. The company showcased significant growth in its renewable energy and broadband segments and celebrated a successful preferred stock issuance. However, it also acknowledged challenges such as increased operating expenses and credit provisions. Despite these hurdles, the overall sentiment remained positive, emphasizing continued growth and financial resilience.

Farmer Mac’s Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance
Nov 4, 2025

The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, commonly known as Farmer Mac, is a secondary market provider that enhances the accessibility of financing for American agriculture and rural infrastructure, playing a crucial role in supporting liquidity for these sectors.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Farmer Mac Reports Strong Q3 Financial Results
Positive
Nov 3, 2025

On November 3, 2025, Farmer Mac reported its third-quarter financial results, highlighting a record net effective spread and core earnings. The company achieved a business volume growth surpassing $31 billion, with a 13% increase in net interest income and a 14% rise in net effective spread compared to the previous year. Farmer Mac maintained a strong capital position, exceeding statutory requirements by 75%, and issued $100 million of Tier 1 capital through a public offering. These results underscore Farmer Mac’s robust financial health and strategic agility in a dynamic market, benefiting stakeholders by ensuring continued support for rural infrastructure and agriculture.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $199.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
President Trump Nominates Jeffrey Kaufmann to Farmer Mac’s board
Neutral
Oct 15, 2025

On September 30, 2025, the White House nominated Jeffrey Kaufmann to the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation’s Board of Directors, replacing Chester Culver. Culver, who had rejoined the Board in May 2022, was informed that his position had ended effective immediately. His departure marks the end of his roles as chair of the Public Policy and Corporate Social Responsibility Committee and as a member of other key committees. Farmer Mac expressed gratitude for Culver’s contributions during his tenure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $199.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
President Trump Nominates Jeffrey Kaufmann to Farmer Mac’s board
Neutral
Oct 6, 2025

On September 30, 2025, the White House nominated Jeffrey Kaufmann to the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation’s Board of Directors, replacing Chester Culver. Culver, who had rejoined the Board in May 2022, was informed that his position had ended effective immediately. His departure marks the end of his roles as chair of the Public Policy and Corporate Social Responsibility Committee and as a member of other key committees. Farmer Mac expressed gratitude for Culver’s contributions during his tenure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $199.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Farmer Mac Appoints New President Amid Leadership Transition
Neutral
Sep 30, 2025

On September 25, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the retirement of its CEO, Bradford T. Nordholm, effective March 31, 2027. Concurrently, Zachary N. Carpenter was appointed as the new President and Chief Operating Officer, with plans to succeed Nordholm as CEO by April 1, 2027. Carpenter, who has been with Farmer Mac since 2019, brings extensive experience from previous roles at CoBank, Goldman Sachs, and Johnson & Johnson. The transition is part of a strategic leadership change, with Carpenter’s compensation and employment terms outlined to ensure continuity and stability in Farmer Mac’s operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $199.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Farmer Mac Announces CEO Retirement and Successor
Neutral
Sep 25, 2025

On September 25, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the planned retirement of its CEO, Bradford T. Nordholm, effective March 31, 2027. The company also appointed Zachary N. Carpenter as President and COO, who will succeed Nordholm as CEO, indicating a strategic leadership transition aimed at ensuring continuity and stability in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $199.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Farmer Mac Declares Quarterly Dividend for Series H
Positive
Sep 10, 2025

On September 10, 2025, Farmer Mac’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend for its 6.500% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series H, amounting to $0.2347222 per share. This dividend covers the period from August 25, 2025, to October 17, 2025, and will be payable on October 17, 2025, to shareholders of record as of October 1, 2025. This announcement follows a previous declaration of dividends on other classes of common and preferred stock on August 14, 2025, indicating Farmer Mac’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Farmer Mac Issues 4 Million Preferred Shares
Positive
Aug 25, 2025

On August 25, 2025, Farmer Mac completed the issuance of 4,000,000 shares of 6.500% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series H, through an exempt public offering. This strategic financial move, executed with RBC Capital Markets, LLC, is likely to strengthen Farmer Mac’s capital base and enhance its ability to support agricultural lending, potentially impacting its market position and stakeholders positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $211.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Farmer Mac Announces Leadership Transition in Legal Team
Neutral
Aug 18, 2025

On August 18, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the retirement of its Executive Vice President – General Counsel and Secretary, Stephen Mullery, effective April 3, 2026, after 25 years of service. Geraldine Hayhurst will succeed him as Executive Vice President – Chief Legal Officer and Secretary starting September 8, 2025. The transition plan includes a transition agreement ensuring Mr. Mullery’s advisory role and compensation until his retirement. This leadership change is expected to maintain Farmer Mac’s commitment to ethical governance and operational strength, with Ms. Hayhurst bringing extensive legal and strategic experience to the role.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Farmer Mac Reports Record Earnings Amid Strategic Growth
Aug 12, 2025

Farmer Mac’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust financial health and strategic growth, tempered by some challenges. The company reported record-breaking financial results, driven by significant growth in diversified portfolio segments, particularly in infrastructure and renewable energy. However, the call also highlighted increased operating expenses and credit provisions as areas of concern, alongside uncertainties in the renewable energy market due to policy changes.

Farmer Mac Achieves Record Business Volume in Q2 2025
Aug 8, 2025

The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, commonly known as Farmer Mac, operates as a secondary market provider that enhances the availability of financing to support American agriculture and rural infrastructure. The company is a key player in the financial services sector, offering liquidity solutions to agricultural and infrastructure businesses across the United States.

Stock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Farmer Mac Announces Record Q2 2025 Results
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, Farmer Mac announced record results for the second quarter of 2025, with core earnings and net effective spread growing by 19% and 12% year-over-year, respectively. The company surpassed $30 billion in total outstanding business volume for the first time, reflecting a strong capital position and diversified portfolio, while increasing its share repurchase program authorization to $50 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2025