Federal Agricultural (AGM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.19B
• Dividend Yield: 2.82%
• Average Volume (3M): 68.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 26.87%
• EPS Growth: 3.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 4.32
• Shares Outstanding: 9,402,081
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 76,638
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 68,759
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 13.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 18.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 81.58
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 73.09
• 1Y Price Target: $218.50
• Price Target Upside: 6.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $220.00 ▲(7.13% Upside)

The overall stock score reflects strong earnings performance and positive technical indicators, offset by financial leverage concerns and recent executive changes. The company's strategic initiatives and reasonable valuation further support a positive outlook.

Federal Agricultural Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through four segments: Farm & Ranch, USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Guarantees, Rural Utilities, and Institutional Credit. The Farm & Ranch segment purchases and retains eligible mortgage loans that are secured by first liens on agricultural real estate; securitizes eligible mortgage loans, and guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest on securities representing interests in or obligations secured by pools of mortgage loans; and issues long-term standby purchase commitments (LTSPC) on designated eligible mortgage loans. The USDA Guarantees segment purchases portions of certain agricultural and rural development loans guaranteed by the USDA. The Rural Utilities segment purchases and guarantees securities that are backed by loans for electric or telecommunications facilities by lenders organized as cooperatives to borrowers; and purchases eligible rural utilities loans and guarantees of securities backed by those loans, as well as LTSPCs for pools of eligible rural utilities loans. The Institutional Credit segment guarantees and purchases general obligations of lenders and other financial institutions that are secured by pools of loans eligible under the Farmer Mac's Farm & Ranch, USDA Guarantees, or Rural Utilities lines of business. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.

How the Company Makes Money

AGM generates revenue primarily through the sale of agricultural inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides. The company maintains a diverse product portfolio that caters to both conventional and organic farming markets, allowing it to tap into multiple customer segments. Key revenue streams include direct sales to farmers, partnerships with agricultural co-ops, and distribution agreements with retailers. Additionally, AGM invests in research and development to create proprietary products that command premium pricing. Strategic partnerships with agricultural technology firms also enable AGM to offer integrated solutions, further enhancing its revenue potential. Seasonal demand fluctuations, driven by planting and harvest cycles, significantly impact earnings, with peak sales typically occurring during the planting season.

Federal Agricultural Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Federal Agricultural has strong revenue growth and solid profitability metrics. However, the high debt levels pose a risk, and the recent decline in free cash flow growth rate suggests a need for careful cash management.

Income Statement

Federal Agricultural has exhibited strong revenue growth with a consistent upward trajectory over the past few years. The TTM data shows a solid gross profit margin of 22.46% and a net profit margin of 12.64%. The EBIT margin stands at 15.77% while the EBITDA margin is 15.75%, indicating efficient cost management. Overall, the company's profitability and growth trends are commendable, supported by a robust financial performance in the credit services industry.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 18.34, indicating significant leverage, which could pose a risk in economic downturns. However, the return on equity (ROE) is strong at 13.31%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is low at 4.79%, suggesting the company's heavy reliance on debt financing. While the company is effectively generating returns, the high leverage warrants caution.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has decreased in the TTM period, with a negative growth rate compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.62, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.60, further demonstrating the company's ability to generate cash. Although cash flow metrics are sound, the recent decline in free cash flow growth rate suggests a need for careful cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.60B	1.62B	1.42B	755.02M	447.70M	519.84M
Gross Profit	372.07M	363.69M	346.28M	308.31M	245.88M	198.84M
EBITDA	415.29M	258.10M	253.10M	460.31M	172.59M	412.27M
Net Income	210.83M	207.19M	200.00M	178.14M	136.09M	108.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.00B	31.32B	29.52B	27.33B	25.15B	24.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.62B	7.00B	5.87B	13.05B	11.07B	11.84B
Total Debt	31.00B	29.30B	27.69B	25.65B	23.70B	23.17B
Total Liabilities	31.45B	29.84B	28.11B	26.06B	23.94B	23.36B
Stockholders Equity	1.54B	1.49B	1.41B	1.27B	1.21B	992.48M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	225.57M	607.37M	375.80M	809.27M	436.41M	-94.55M
Operating Cash Flow	225.64M	612.65M	375.80M	809.27M	436.41M	-94.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.43B	-1.68B	-1.96B	-3.04B	-1.10B	-1.74B
Financing Cash Flow	2.31B	1.21B	1.61B	2.19B	534.63M	2.26B

Federal Agricultural Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 205.35
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 205.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 197.17, above the 50-day MA of 188.35, and above the 200-day MA of 190.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGM.

Federal Agricultural Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FINV	79 Outperform	$1.97B	5.44	18.75%	3.56%	8.41%	34.76%
ENVA	78 Outperform	$3.01B	12.74	21.56%	―	23.42%	59.17%
LX	73 Outperform	$1.01B	4.78	14.86%	4.99%	3.11%	95.40%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.06B	11.97	10.24%	3.74%	9.75%	1.30%
LC	67 Neutral	$1.92B	26.05	5.50%	―	7.54%	70.26%
AGM	66 Neutral	$2.19B	12.06	13.85%	2.82%	26.87%	3.35%
LU	52 Neutral	$2.42B	―	-3.79%	4.57%	-38.81%	-425.73%

Federal Agricultural Corporate Events

Farmer Mac Issues 4 Million Preferred Shares

On August 25, 2025, Farmer Mac completed the issuance of 4,000,000 shares of 6.500% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series H, through an exempt public offering. This strategic financial move, executed with RBC Capital Markets, LLC, is likely to strengthen Farmer Mac’s capital base and enhance its ability to support agricultural lending, potentially impacting its market position and stakeholders positively.

Farmer Mac Announces Leadership Transition in Legal Team

On August 18, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the retirement of its Executive Vice President – General Counsel and Secretary, Stephen Mullery, effective April 3, 2026, after 25 years of service. Geraldine Hayhurst will succeed him as Executive Vice President – Chief Legal Officer and Secretary starting September 8, 2025. The transition plan includes a transition agreement ensuring Mr. Mullery’s advisory role and compensation until his retirement. This leadership change is expected to maintain Farmer Mac’s commitment to ethical governance and operational strength, with Ms. Hayhurst bringing extensive legal and strategic experience to the role.

Farmer Mac Announces Record Q2 2025 Results

On August 7, 2025, Farmer Mac announced record results for the second quarter of 2025, with core earnings and net effective spread growing by 19% and 12% year-over-year, respectively. The company surpassed $30 billion in total outstanding business volume for the first time, reflecting a strong capital position and diversified portfolio, while increasing its share repurchase program authorization to $50 million.

Farmer Mac Announces Q2 2025 Earnings Call Schedule

On July 24, 2025, the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, known as Farmer Mac, announced the schedule for its conference call to discuss financial results for the fiscal quarter ending June 30, 2025. This announcement is part of Farmer Mac’s routine financial communications and does not incorporate any new information into its existing filings under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or the Securities Act of 1933.

Federal Agricultural Announces CFO Resignation Effective July 31

On July 10, 2025, the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, known as Farmer Mac, announced the resignation of its principal financial officer, Aparna Ramesh, effective July 31, 2025. This leadership change may impact the company’s financial strategy and operations, potentially affecting its market position and stakeholders.

Farmer Mac Appoints Gregory Ramsey as Interim CFO

On July 8, 2025, Aparna Ramesh, the Executive Vice President – Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Farmer Mac, announced her resignation effective July 31, 2025, to pursue another opportunity. Her departure is not due to any disagreements regarding the company’s financial practices or operations. Farmer Mac plans to conduct a nationwide search for her successor. Subsequently, on July 9, 2025, the Board of Directors appointed Gregory N. Ramsey as the interim principal financial officer effective August 1, 2025. Ramsey, who has been with Farmer Mac since 2013 and has previously served as interim principal financial officer, brings extensive experience from his previous roles at PricewaterhouseCoopers and Fannie Mae.

Farmer Mac Completes $300.1 Million Loan Securitization

On June 11, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the completion of a $300.1 million securitization of agricultural mortgage loans. This move is expected to enhance Farmer Mac’s capacity to provide credit to the agricultural sector, potentially strengthening its market position and offering increased financial flexibility to stakeholders.