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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (AGM)
NYSE:AGM
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Federal Agricultural (AGM) AI Stock Analysis

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AGM

Federal Agricultural

(NYSE:AGM)

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Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$199.00
▲(15.08% Upside)
The overall stock score is driven by strong earnings performance and attractive valuation metrics. However, financial performance is hindered by high leverage and declining revenue growth, while technical indicators suggest bearish momentum.

Federal Agricultural (AGM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Federal Agricultural Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFederal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through four segments: Farm & Ranch, USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Guarantees, Rural Utilities, and Institutional Credit. The Farm & Ranch segment purchases and retains eligible mortgage loans that are secured by first liens on agricultural real estate; securitizes eligible mortgage loans, and guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest on securities representing interests in or obligations secured by pools of mortgage loans; and issues long-term standby purchase commitments (LTSPC) on designated eligible mortgage loans. The USDA Guarantees segment purchases portions of certain agricultural and rural development loans guaranteed by the USDA. The Rural Utilities segment purchases and guarantees securities that are backed by loans for electric or telecommunications facilities by lenders organized as cooperatives to borrowers; and purchases eligible rural utilities loans and guarantees of securities backed by those loans, as well as LTSPCs for pools of eligible rural utilities loans. The Institutional Credit segment guarantees and purchases general obligations of lenders and other financial institutions that are secured by pools of loans eligible under the Farmer Mac's Farm & Ranch, USDA Guarantees, or Rural Utilities lines of business. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAGM generates revenue primarily through the sale of agricultural inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides. The company maintains a diverse product portfolio that caters to both conventional and organic farming markets, allowing it to tap into multiple customer segments. Key revenue streams include direct sales to farmers, partnerships with agricultural co-ops, and distribution agreements with retailers. Additionally, AGM invests in research and development to create proprietary products that command premium pricing. Strategic partnerships with agricultural technology firms also enable AGM to offer integrated solutions, further enhancing its revenue potential. Seasonal demand fluctuations, driven by planting and harvest cycles, significantly impact earnings, with peak sales typically occurring during the planting season.

Federal Agricultural Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Farmer Mac reported strong financial performance with record earnings and growth across diversified business segments. The company successfully expanded its portfolio and maintained a solid capital position. However, increased operating expenses and credit provisions presented challenges. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, reflecting a positive sentiment.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
Farmer Mac achieved record results in the second quarter of 2025, with core earnings growing 19% year-over-year and net effective spread increasing over 12% compared to the same period last year.
Diversified Business Growth
Total outstanding business volume surpassed $30 billion for the first time, with significant growth in renewable energy, broadband infrastructure, and corporate agribusiness segments.
Strong Capital Position
Core capital increased by $35 million to $1.6 billion, exceeding the statutory requirement by 63%. The Tier 1 capital ratio remains strong at 13.6% despite asset growth.
Renewable Energy Segment Growth
The Renewable Energy segment grew by 122% year-over-year, ending the quarter at nearly $2 billion, driven by investments in renewable energy generation and storage.
Share Repurchase Program
The Board of Directors increased the share repurchase program to $50 million and extended it to August 2027, reflecting confidence in the company's strategic objectives.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating Expenses
Operating expenses rose due to increased headcount, technology investments, and higher transaction-related legal fees.
Credit Provision and Charge-offs
A $7.8 million net provision to the total allowance for losses was recorded, including a $2.8 million charge-off related to two specific borrower relationships.
Infrastructure Finance Downgrades
Two loans in the infrastructure finance portfolio were downgraded, impacting the credit provision for the quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Farmer Mac Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Results Conference Call, the company reported record financial performance, highlighting a 19% year-over-year growth in core earnings and a 12% increase in net effective spread. The total outstanding business volume surpassed $30 billion, with core earnings reaching $47.4 million and a net effective spread of $93.9 million. The company emphasized strategic diversification into renewable energy, broadband infrastructure, and corporate agribusiness, which contributed to growth despite an increase in operating expenses. Additionally, Farmer Mac's portfolio saw a $7.8 million net provision related to credit expenses, including specific charge-offs and downgrades in certain segments. The company's core capital rose by $35 million to $1.6 billion, exceeding statutory requirements by $602 million, although the Tier 1 capital ratio slightly declined to 13.6%. Farmer Mac's strategic initiatives included a modified share repurchase program, enhancement of its securitization efforts, and active engagement with new legislation, HR1, which may impact future operations and opportunities.

Federal Agricultural Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Federal Agricultural demonstrates strong profitability and cost management, but faces challenges with high leverage and declining revenue growth. The company's ability to generate cash is under pressure, which could affect its financial flexibility.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin is relatively stable, but the net profit margin has decreased slightly over the TTM period. Revenue growth has turned negative, indicating a potential slowdown in business activity. However, the company maintains a strong EBIT margin, suggesting efficient cost management.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio significantly above industry norms, which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity remains healthy, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is low, reflecting the high reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth, which may impact future liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting potential challenges in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, indicating good cash generation relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.60B1.62B1.42B755.02M447.70M519.84M
Gross Profit372.07M363.69M346.28M308.31M245.88M198.84M
EBITDA415.29M258.10M253.10M460.31M172.59M412.27M
Net Income210.83M207.19M200.00M178.14M136.09M108.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets33.00B31.32B29.52B27.33B25.15B24.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.62B7.00B5.87B13.05B11.07B11.84B
Total Debt31.00B29.30B27.69B25.65B23.70B23.17B
Total Liabilities31.45B29.84B28.11B26.06B23.94B23.36B
Stockholders Equity1.54B1.49B1.41B1.27B1.21B992.48M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow225.57M607.37M375.80M809.27M436.41M-94.55M
Operating Cash Flow225.64M612.65M375.80M809.27M436.41M-94.55M
Investing Cash Flow-2.43B-1.68B-1.96B-3.04B-1.10B-1.74B
Financing Cash Flow2.31B1.21B1.61B2.19B534.63M2.26B

Federal Agricultural Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price172.93
Price Trends
50DMA
186.18
Negative
100DMA
186.59
Negative
200DMA
187.43
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-4.24
Positive
RSI
24.81
Positive
STOCH
6.37
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 172.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 191.80, below the 50-day MA of 186.18, and below the 200-day MA of 187.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.81 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.37 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGM.

Federal Agricultural Risk Analysis

Federal Agricultural disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Federal Agricultural reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Federal Agricultural Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
1.91B5.1615.67%3.67%8.41%34.76%
78
Outperform
3.05B12.9520.85%23.42%59.17%
70
Outperform
2.57B2.9796.42%11.82%-3.83%62.05%
67
Neutral
1.90B25.813.83%7.54%70.26%
63
Neutral
$1.84B10.4413.85%3.41%26.87%3.35%
52
Neutral
2.43B-4.71-38.81%-425.73%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AGM
Federal Agricultural
172.93
-8.88
-4.88%
WU
Western Union
7.95
-2.84
-26.32%
LC
LendingClub
16.54
5.11
44.71%
ENVA
Enova International
121.93
38.14
45.52%
FINV
FinVolution Group
7.55
1.58
26.47%
LU
Lufax Holding
3.59
0.10
2.87%

Federal Agricultural Corporate Events

Dividends
Farmer Mac Declares Quarterly Dividend for Series H
Positive
Sep 10, 2025

On September 10, 2025, Farmer Mac’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend for its 6.500% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series H, amounting to $0.2347222 per share. This dividend covers the period from August 25, 2025, to October 17, 2025, and will be payable on October 17, 2025, to shareholders of record as of October 1, 2025. This announcement follows a previous declaration of dividends on other classes of common and preferred stock on August 14, 2025, indicating Farmer Mac’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Farmer Mac Issues 4 Million Preferred Shares
Positive
Aug 25, 2025

On August 25, 2025, Farmer Mac completed the issuance of 4,000,000 shares of 6.500% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series H, through an exempt public offering. This strategic financial move, executed with RBC Capital Markets, LLC, is likely to strengthen Farmer Mac’s capital base and enhance its ability to support agricultural lending, potentially impacting its market position and stakeholders positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $211.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Farmer Mac Announces Leadership Transition in Legal Team
Neutral
Aug 18, 2025

On August 18, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the retirement of its Executive Vice President – General Counsel and Secretary, Stephen Mullery, effective April 3, 2026, after 25 years of service. Geraldine Hayhurst will succeed him as Executive Vice President – Chief Legal Officer and Secretary starting September 8, 2025. The transition plan includes a transition agreement ensuring Mr. Mullery’s advisory role and compensation until his retirement. This leadership change is expected to maintain Farmer Mac’s commitment to ethical governance and operational strength, with Ms. Hayhurst bringing extensive legal and strategic experience to the role.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Farmer Mac Announces Record Q2 2025 Results
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, Farmer Mac announced record results for the second quarter of 2025, with core earnings and net effective spread growing by 19% and 12% year-over-year, respectively. The company surpassed $30 billion in total outstanding business volume for the first time, reflecting a strong capital position and diversified portfolio, while increasing its share repurchase program authorization to $50 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 17, 2025