Federal Agricultural (AGM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.51B
• Dividend Yield: 3.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 117.09K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: 27.36%
• EPS Growth: 12.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.66
• Shares Outstanding: 9,325,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 98,830
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 117,087
• PEG Ratio: 10.95
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 20.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 23.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 80.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 122.96
• 1Y Price Target: $215.00
• Price Target Upside: 52.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 19.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $450.72M

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $164.00 ▲(16.43% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

AGM’s score is driven primarily by mixed fundamentals: solid earnings power but very high leverage and a notable 2025 deceleration with weaker cash-flow conversion. The earnings call was broadly constructive with growth guidance and strong records, but highlighted elevated, borrower-specific credit costs and higher expenses. Valuation is supportive (low P/E and solid yield), while technicals are currently a headwind with price below key moving averages and negative MACD.

Positive Factors

Consistent earnings power

Ten consecutive years of record core earnings demonstrates a durable, repeatable earnings engine and disciplined underwriting/loan-intermediation model. This multi-year consistency supports ongoing reinvestment, dividend policy and provides a structural buffer against episodic credit swings.

Diversified higher‑spread portfolio growth

Material growth across infrastructure, renewables and broadband expands exposure to higher-yielding, mission-aligned assets and reduces single-sector dependency. Diversification into durable, long‑dated infrastructure demand supports sustainable net interest margin over the medium term.

Strengthened capital and shareholder returns

A growing capital buffer materially above regulatory floors plus continued dividend increases and buybacks indicate conservative capital management and capacity to fund growth. This structural capital strength enhances resilience to credit losses and supports stakeholder confidence.

Negative Factors

Extremely high leverage

An extremely large debt load versus thin equity materially increases sensitivity to funding cost shifts, credit losses and regulatory capital pressures. Structurally higher leverage can amplify downside in stress periods and limits flexibility for opportunistic growth or cushioning losses.

Volatile cash‑flow conversion

Marked swings in operating and free cash flow reduce predictability of internal funding for lending, dividends and buybacks. The steep 2025 decline highlights that portfolio/working-capital and funding dynamics can quickly impair cash conversion and constrain strategic choices.

Concentrated credit provisions and seasoning risk

Large, borrower-specific losses and elevated provisions reveal concentration and seasoning risk in newer segments. As these portfolios age, recurring elevated credit costs could pressure earnings, erode capital cushions and require ongoing risk-transfer or capital actions to sustain growth.

Federal Agricultural Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through four segments: Farm & Ranch, USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Guarantees, Rural Utilities, and Institutional Credit. The Farm & Ranch segment purchases and retains eligible mortgage loans that are secured by first liens on agricultural real estate; securitizes eligible mortgage loans, and guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest on securities representing interests in or obligations secured by pools of mortgage loans; and issues long-term standby purchase commitments (LTSPC) on designated eligible mortgage loans. The USDA Guarantees segment purchases portions of certain agricultural and rural development loans guaranteed by the USDA. The Rural Utilities segment purchases and guarantees securities that are backed by loans for electric or telecommunications facilities by lenders organized as cooperatives to borrowers; and purchases eligible rural utilities loans and guarantees of securities backed by those loans, as well as LTSPCs for pools of eligible rural utilities loans. The Institutional Credit segment guarantees and purchases general obligations of lenders and other financial institutions that are secured by pools of loans eligible under the Farmer Mac's Farm & Ranch, USDA Guarantees, or Rural Utilities lines of business. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.

Federal Agricultural Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows solid profitability but a clear 2025 slowdown (revenue down ~12% and net margin ~11% with compression). Cash flow remains generally positive over recent years but dropped sharply in 2025, indicating higher volatility. The biggest drag is balance-sheet risk: extremely high leverage (debt-to-equity ~18x in 2025) increases sensitivity to credit/funding conditions despite acceptable ROE.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded sharply from 2021–2024 (including a major step-up in 2022–2023), but the latest year shows a modest decline (2025 down ~12%). Profitability is still solid for a credit-services model, with net margin ~11% in 2025, though it has compressed from the stronger 2021–2023 period. Overall: good earnings power with a noticeable slowdown and margin pressure in the most recent year.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is highly leveraged: debt is extremely large relative to equity (debt-to-equity consistently ~18–23x across the period, ~18x in 2025). While returns on equity remain healthy (~11% in 2025 after ~14% in 2022–2024), the combination of thin equity and large borrowings increases sensitivity to credit cycles, funding costs, and asset-quality swings. Strength is consistent equity profitability; weakness is the elevated leverage profile.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is volatile. Operating and free cash flow were negative in 2020, strong in 2021–2024, then fell sharply in 2025 (down materially versus 2024). While recent free cash flow still roughly matches net income, the year-to-year swing suggests working-capital/portfolio dynamics and funding conditions can materially impact cash conversion. Strength is generally positive cash flow over the last several years; weakness is the steep 2025 drop and overall variability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.32B	1.62B	1.42B	755.02M	447.70M
Gross Profit	388.56M	363.69M	350.20M	308.31M	245.88M
EBITDA	255.72M	258.10M	253.10M	225.68M	172.59M
Net Income	207.39M	207.19M	200.00M	178.14M	136.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	35.51B	31.32B	29.52B	27.33B	25.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	18.48B	12.48B	11.34B	13.05B	11.07B
Total Debt	30.82B	29.30B	27.69B	25.65B	23.70B
Total Liabilities	33.79B	29.84B	28.11B	26.06B	23.91B
Stockholders Equity	1.72B	1.49B	1.41B	1.27B	1.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	80.06M	607.37M	375.80M	809.27M	436.41M
Operating Cash Flow	80.06M	612.65M	375.80M	809.27M	436.41M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.81B	-1.68B	-1.96B	-3.04B	-1.10B
Financing Cash Flow	3.64B	1.21B	1.61B	2.19B	534.63M

Federal Agricultural Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 140.86
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 140.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 155.53, below the 50-day MA of 165.02, and below the 200-day MA of 172.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.15 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.61 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGM.

Federal Agricultural Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ENVA	71 Outperform	$3.42B	12.62	24.45%	―	21.10%	76.12%
FINV	71 Outperform	$1.49B	3.73	15.80%	5.20%	9.32%	29.40%
WU	68 Neutral	$2.82B	6.09	53.92%	10.18%	-2.51%	17.47%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
LC	61 Neutral	$1.53B	16.10	9.47%	―	9.68%	94.85%
AGM	59 Neutral	$1.51B	9.24	12.81%	3.40%	27.36%	12.55%
LU	52 Neutral	$2.33B	-2.90	0.96%	―	―	―

Federal Agricultural Corporate Events

Farmer Mac Board Enhances Executive Pay and Incentives

On March 5, 2026, Farmer Mac’s board committee approved retroactive base salary increases for senior executives effective January 1, 2026, alongside sizable grants of stock appreciation rights and restricted stock units to key officers and directors, with vesting schedules stretching to 2029 and detailed provisions for death, disability, retirement, and termination. The committee also confirmed strong performance for 2023 incentive awards, including a 164% payout on a special CEO grant and maximum vesting of 2023 performance-based RSUs after the company exceeded its three-year “Earnings before Credit” targets, and awarded 2025 performance-based cash bonuses to top executives, underscoring robust financial results and an aggressive, performance-linked pay framework for leadership.

The new RSU awards to officers include both time-based and performance-based tranches, with future vesting contingent on Farmer Mac meeting multi-year earnings, capital, and asset-quality “gatekeeper” thresholds through 2028, signaling continued emphasis on long-term profitability and credit discipline. Collectively, the mix of higher salaries, equity awards, and cash bonuses strengthens executive retention and aligns management incentives more tightly with shareholder value and regulatory soundness, potentially reinforcing Farmer Mac’s competitive position in the agricultural finance market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $169.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Farmer Mac Schedules Investor Day Webcast on Strategy

On March 4, 2026, Farmer Mac announced the date and time of an upcoming Investor Day webcast that will focus on the company’s growth opportunities and strategic priorities. The event is positioned as a key forum for management to outline its strategic direction to investors, potentially influencing market perceptions of Farmer Mac’s long-term positioning in the agricultural finance sector and informing stakeholders about its operational and growth agenda.

The information about the Investor Day webcast was furnished rather than filed under U.S. securities laws, meaning it is not subject to certain liabilities associated with formal Exchange Act filings. This treatment underscores that the disclosure is intended primarily as an informational update for the investment community, without being incorporated by default into Farmer Mac’s other regulatory filings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Hold with a $162.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Farmer Mac Posts Record 2025 Results, Raises Dividend

On February 19, 2026, Farmer Mac reported strong results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, including record outstanding business volume of $33.4 billion after $3.8 billion in net growth, $10.5 billion in liquidity and lending capacity provided to rural lenders, and a 10% year-over-year increase in net interest income to $390.7 million. Net effective spread rose 13% to a record $383.0 million, core earnings reached a record $182.9 million, or $16.66 per diluted share (up 7% year-over-year), and total core capital stood at $1.7 billion with a Tier 1 Capital Ratio of 13.3%, while some isolated borrower-specific credit events weighed on quarterly results.

Farmer Mac’s board underscored confidence in the company’s earnings power and capital base by raising the quarterly common dividend 7% to $1.60 per share on February 18, 2026, marking the fifteenth consecutive annual increase, with payment set for March 31, 2026 to common shareholders of record on March 16, 2026. The board also declared routine quarterly dividends on all five series of preferred stock for the period from January 17 to April 17, 2026, payable April 17, 2026 to holders of record on April 1, 2026, reinforcing the company’s signal of stable capital returns to both common and preferred investors despite recent, contained credit issues.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Buy with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Farmer Mac Schedules Conference Call on Year-End Results

On February 5, 2025, Farmer Mac announced the scheduled date and time for a conference call to discuss its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, signaling a forthcoming detailed update on the company’s recent financial performance. The announcement, which clarifies that the related materials are furnished rather than filed for securities law purposes, underscores the company’s adherence to regulatory disclosure practices while preparing investors and other stakeholders for an upcoming review of operating and financial conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Buy with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.

Farmer Mac Updates Bylaws to Modernize Corporate Governance

On January 27, 2026, Farmer Mac’s board of directors amended and restated the company’s by-laws, updating provisions governing officers, shareholder meetings, board operations, share certification, and corporate finance authorities. The revisions formally authorize a board‑approved Treasurer role, permit shareholder and board meetings via remote communication with electronic notices and voting procedures, clarify quorum and committee governance standards, refine treatment of uncertificated shares, and modernize language on loans and indebtedness, collectively streamlining corporate governance and administrative processes for the agricultural mortgage provider.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGM) stock is a Buy with a $187.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal Agricultural stock, see the AGM Stock Forecast page.